Currently, logistics is considered as one of the most dynamic sector and therefore it should be given considerable attention. With the current trend of the globalization, we can expect increasing tendency in the near future. Logistics as we know it today has been really an indispensable part of our daily lives. All these activities are covered by logistics processes, without which we cannot imagine the modern life as we know it today.The aim of my thesis is to describe and analyze services and product lines of DHL Express (Czech Republic) Ltd. I chose this topic because I worked in the company and therefore I know the internal conditions and thus can approach the issue comprehensively. The main focus is on description and assessment of existing services DHL Express in the theoretical part. In the practical part, I would like to analyze the new, introducing the services that DHL recently applied or only will implement in the near future. It is for example the Service Point or modern service on petrol station related with expenditure shipments. Outputs of my final project should be beneficial also for the company itself. They are recommendations which services are most used and on the other hand should be turn down or improved. The arguments and opinions in the thesis are supported also by the questionnaire.

The diploma thesis is pursuing the analysis of principles on which the technical analysis is based, with focus on the relevancy. The attention will be paid to the fact whether technical analysis is able to generate successful trade signals and thus be recognized as scientific discipline. We will try to remove the subjectivity (for which is often criticized) by means of statistical methods. The diploma also includes basics of psychological analysis (especially new stances). In work, I evaluate whether technical analysis can be informative and add value to investment process. I also compare the returns based on technical analysis with Buy and Hold strategy.

Three-way median polish is used to model the monthly concentrations of three kinds of ions in precipitation, namely sulphate, nitrate and hydrogen ions. In contrast to previous findings that the wet acid deposition had decreased from late 70's to early 80's, the results suggest that there is a V-shaped trend for wet acid deposition during the period of 1980 -1986 with the change point around 1983. Strong seasonality is also discovered by the analysis. Nonparametric monotone trend tests are performed on the data collected from 1980 to 1986 and on the data collected from 1983 to 1986 separately. The results are consistent with the findings from the median polish approach. A nonparametric slope estimate of the trend is obtained for each monitoring station. Based on these estimates, the slope estimate is obtained by Kriging interpolation for each integer degree grid point of longitude and latitude across the 48 conterminous states in the United States. Also, a geographical pattern in the data is suggested by hierarchical clustering and by median polishing. / Science, Faculty of / Statistics, Department of / Graduate

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Bakgrund Antalet personer som är diagnostiserade med celiaki har inte förändrats de senaste åren men trots det har antalet personer som följer en glutenfri kost tredubblats, en förändring som talat för att glutenfri kost blivit en trend. Vuxna med celiaki undviker att äta på café eller restaurang och bidragande orsaker till det är kontaminationsrisk, dålig kommunikation med personalen och restaurangpersonalens otillräckliga kunskap om sjukdomen. Syfte Syftet med studien var att undersöka på vilket sätt celiaki påverkar vardagen, med fokus på måltider utanför hemmet och den glutenfria trenden. Metod Kvantitativ metod i form av en webbaserad enkät valdes som metod. Inklusionskriterierna för att få delta i studien var att personerna måste vara diagnostiserade med celiaki och vara minst 18 år gamla. Enkätsvaren analyserades i SPSS. Chi-2 test, Mann Whitney u test och deskriptiv data användes för analys. Resultat Totalt valde 188 personer att svara på enkäten, 1,1% av respondenterna kände sig alltid trygga att äta utanför hemmet. Yngre kände sig tryggare än de äldre att äta på café/restaurang. Kontaminationsrisk var den faktorn som flest upplevde som orsak till minskad trygghet med att äta måltider utanför hemmet. Den mest framträdande positiva konsekvensen av den glutenfria trenden var ett ökat utbud av glutenfria produkter och den mest framträdande negativa konsekvensen var minskad noggrannhet kring kontaminationsrisk. Slutsats Undersökningen visade att endast ett fåtal deltagare alltid kände sig trygga att äta ute på café/restaurang samt hemma hos andra, vilket kan påverka hur ofta personer med celiaki väljer att äta utanför hemmet. Den glutenfria trenden hade enligt deltagarna medfört både positiva och negativa konsekvenser men resultatet talar för att de positiva konsekvenserna övervägde. / Background The number of people diagnosed with celiac disease has been stable during the recent years, even though the number of people preferring gluten-free food has tripled, this may suggest that gluten-free food has become a trend. The majority of adults with celiac disease avoid eating at café’s or restaurants and the main reason for this are the risk of contamination, poor communication and the lack of restaurant staff's knowledge about celiac disease. Objective The aim of the study was to investigate how celiac disease affects everyday life, focusing on meals outside the home and the gluten-free trend. Method For this study, a quantitative method in the form of web-based questionnaires was used. The inclusion criteria for participating in the study were that people must be diagnosed with celiac disease and be at least 18 years old. The responses from the questionnaire were analyzed in SPSS, Chi -2, Mann Whitney U test and descriptive data were used for analysis. Results In total, 188 chosed to answer the questionnaire. 1,1% of the respondents always felt safe eating outside the home. Younger people felt safer than the elderly did when eating at a café or restaurant. Risk of contamination was the factor that caused least security when eating outside the home. The most significant positive consequence due to the gluten-free trend was increased variety of gluten-free products and the most significant negative consequence was decreased accuracy in contamination risk. Conclusion The study showed that only a few people always felt safe eating at a café or restaurant and at home with others, which can affect how often people with celiac disease choose to eat outside the home. According to the respondents the gluten-free trend had both positive and negative consequences, but the results indicate that the positive consequences were considered.

The entropy of all systems is supposed to increase with time, this is also observed in the hydroclimatic records as increased variability. The current dissertation is primarily focused on the hydrologic variability of the hydrologic records in the climate regions across Continental United States. The study evaluated the effects of serial correlation in the historical streamflow records on both gradual trend and abrupt shift in streamflow. The study also evaluated the trend before and after the shift occurrence to validate whether the observed changes in streamflow is a result of long-term variability or climate regime shift. Secondly, the current dissertation evaluated the variability within western US hydrology which is highly driven by the oscillation of Pacific Ocean such as El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The dissertation evaluated the variability in snow water equivalent (SWE) of western US as the winter snow accumulation of the region drives the spring-summer streamflow in the region which contributes to the major portion of yearly streamflow. The SWE variability during the individual phases of ENSO were analyzed to reveal the detailed influence of ENSO on historic snow accumulations. The study is not solely limited to the hydrologic variability evaluation rather; it also delves into obtaining the time lagged spatiotemporal teleconnections between large scale climate variables and streamflow and forecast the later based on the obtained teleconnections. To accomplish the research goals the current dissertation was subdivided into three research tasks. First task dealt with the streamflow records of 419 unimpaired streamflow records which were grouped into seven climate regions based on National Climate Assessment, to evaluate the regional changes in both seasonal streamflow and yearly streamflow percentiles. Non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Pettitt’s test were utilized to evaluate the streamflow variability as gradual trend and abrupt shift, respectively. Walker test was performed to test the global significance of the streamflow variability within each climate regions based on local trend and shift significance of each streamflow stations. The task also evaluated the presence of serial correlation in the streamflow records and its effects on both trend and shift within the climate regions of continental United States for the first time. Maximum variability in terms of both trend and shift were observed for summer as compared to other seasons. Similarly, greater number of stations showed streamflow variability for 5th and 50th percentile streamflow as compared to 95th and 100th percentile streamflow. It was also observed that serial correlation affected both trend and step while, accounting for the lag-1 autocorrelation improved shift results. The results indicated that the streamflow variability has more likely occurred as shift as compared to the gradual trend. The outcomes of the current result detailing historic variability may help to envision future changes in streamflow. The second task evaluated the spatiotemporal variability of western US SWE over 58 years (1961–2018) as a trend and a shift. The task tested whether the SWE is consistent during ENSO phases utilizing the Kolmogorov – Smirnov (KS) test. Trend analysis was performed on the SWE data of each ENSO phase. Shift analysis was performed in the entire time series of 58 years. Additionally, the trend in the SWE data was evaluated before and after shift years. Mann- Kendal and Pettit's tests were utilized for the detection of trend and shift, respectively. The serial correlation was considered during the trend evaluation, while Thiel-Sen approach was used for the evaluation of the trend magnitude. The serial correlation in time series which is the potential cause of overestimation and underestimation of the trend evaluation was found to be absent in the SWE data. The results suggested a negative trend and a shift during the study period. The negative trend was absent during neutral years and present during El Niño and La Niña years. The trend magnitudes were maximum during La Niña years followed by those during El Niño years and the entire length of the data. It was also observed that if the presence of negative shift in the SWE was considered, then most of the stations did not show a significant trend before and after the occurrence of a shift. The third task forecasted the streamflow at a regional scale within Sacramento San Joaquin (SSJ) River Basin with largescale climate variables. SSJ is an agricultural watershed located in the drought sensitive region of California. The forecast techniques involved a hybrid statistical framework that eliminates the bias resulting from predefined indices at regional scale. The study was performed for eight unimpaired streamflow stations from 1962 to 2016. First, the Singular Valued Decomposition (SVD) teleconnections of the streamflow corresponding to 500 mbar geopotential height, sea surface temperature, 500 mbar specific humidity (SHUM500), and 500 mbar U-wind (U500) were obtained. Second, the skillful SVD teleconnections were screened non-parametrically. Finally, the screened teleconnections were used as the streamflow predictors in the non-linear regression models (K-nearest neighbor regression and data-driven support vector machine). The SVD results identified new spatial regions that have not been included in existing predefined indices. The nonparametric model indicated the teleconnections of SHUM500 and U500 being better streamflow predictors compared to other climate variables. The regression models were capable to apprehend most of the sustained low flows, proving the model to be effective for drought-affected regions. It was also observed that the forecasting approach showed better forecasting skills with preprocessed large-scale climate variables rather than using the predefined indices. The techniques involved in this task was simple, yet robust in providing qualitative streamflow forecasts that may assist water managers in making policy-related decisions when planning and managing watersheds.

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In several countries, a decline in mortality, case-fatality and recurrence rates of stroke was observed. However, studies investigating sex-specific and subtype-specific (pathological and etiological) time trends in stroke mortality, case-fatality and recurrence rates are scarce, especially in Germany. The decline in ischemic stroke mortality and case-fatality might be associated with the high quality of acute care of ischemic stroke, but the exact determinants of early outcome remains unknown for Germany. Therefore, as first step of this thesis, we investigated the time trends of subtype- and sex-specific age- standardized stroke mortality rates in Germany from 1998 to 2015, by applying joinpoint regression on official causes of death statistics, provided by the Federal Statistical Office. Furthermore, a regional comparison of the time trends in stroke mortality between East and West was conducted. In the second step, time trends in case-fatality and stroke recurrence rates were analyzed using data from a population- based stroke register in Germany between 1996 and 2015. The analysis was stratified by sex and etiological subtype of ischemic stroke. In the third step, quality of stroke care and the association between adherence to measures of quality of acute ischemic stroke care and in-hospital mortality was estimated based on data from nine regional hospital-based stroke registers in Germany from the years 2015 and 2016. We showed that in Germany, age-standardized stroke mortality declined by over 50% from 1998 to 2015 both, in women and men. Stratified by the pathological subtypes of stroke, the decrease in mortality was larger in ischemic stroke compared to hemorrhagic stroke. Different patterns in the time trends of stroke were observed for stroke subtypes, regions in Germany (former Eastern part of Germany (EG), former Western part of Germany (WG)) and sex, but in all strata a decline was found. By applying joinpoint regression, the number of changes in time trend differed between the regions and up to three changes in the trend in ischemic stroke mortality were detected. Trends in hemorrhagic stroke were in parallel between the regions with up to one change (in women) in joinpoint regression. Comparing the regions, stroke mortality was higher in EG compared to WG throughout the whole observed time period, however the differences between the regions started to diminish from 2007 onwards. Further it was found that, based on the population-based Erlangen Stroke Project (ESPro), case-fatality and recurrence rates in ischemic stroke patients are still high in Germany. 46% died and 20% got a recurrent stroke within the first five years after stroke. Case-fatality rates declined statistically significant from 1996 to 2015 across all ischemic stroke patients and all etiological subtypes of ischemic stroke. Based on Cox regression no statistically significant decrease in stroke recurrence was observed. Based on the pooled data of nine regional hospital-based stroke registers from the years 2015 and 2016 covering about 80% of all hospitalized stroke patients in Germany, a high quality of care of acute ischemic stroke patients, measured via 11 evidence-based quality indicators (QI) of process of care, was observed. Across all registers, most QI reached the predefined target values for good quality of stroke care. 9 out of 11 QI showed a significant association with 7-day in-hospital mortality. An inverse linear association between overall adherence to QI and 7-day in-hospital mortality was observed. In conclusion, stroke mortality and case-fatality showed a favorable development over time in Germany, which might partly be due to improvements in acute treatment. This is supported by the association between overall adherence to quality of care and in-hospital mortality. However, there might be room for improvements in long-term secondary prevention, as no clear reduction in recurrence rates was observed. / Ein Rückgang der Mortalität-, Letalität- und Rezidivraten nach einem Schlaganfall konnte in einigen Ländern in den letzten Jahren beobachtet werden. Es gibt, insbesondere für Deutschland, jedoch nur wenige Daten, die diese zeitlichen Trends stratifiziert nach Geschlecht und Schlaganfallsubtyp (pathologischer und ätiologischer Subtyp) ausgewertet haben. Der Rückgang der Mortalität und Letalität nach ischämischem Schlaganfall könnte mit der beobachteten hohen Qualität der Versorgung des akuten ischämischen Schlaganfalls zusammenhängen, jedoch sind für Deutschland die genauen Determinanten der frühen Sterblichkeit nach Schlaganfall noch unbekannt. Aus diesem Grunde wurden in der vorliegenden Dissertation, im ersten Schritt zeitliche Trends von 1998 bis 2015 der altersstandardisierten und nach Subtyp und Geschlecht stratifizierten Mortalitätsraten untersucht. Dazu wurden die vom Statistischen Bundesamtes bereitgestellten Daten zur Todesursachenstatistik mittels Joinpoint Regression ausgewertet. Zusätzlich wurde ein regionaler Vergleich der zeitlichen Trends in der Schlaganfallmortalität zwischen der östlichen und westlichen Region von Deutschland durchgeführt. Im zweiten Schritt, wurde basierend auf einem deutschem bevölkerungsbasierten Schlaganfallregister mittels Cox Regression die zeitlichen Trends der Letalitätsraten und Rezidivraten des ischämischen Schlaganfalls zwischen 1996 und 2015 geschätzt. Die Analyse wurde stratifiziert nach Geschlecht und ätiologischem Subtyp des ischämischen Schlaganfalls. Im dritten Schritt wurde, basierend auf Daten von neun regionalen krankenhausbasierten Schlaganfallregistern der Jahre 2015 und 2016, die Qualität der Behandlung des akuten ischämischen gemessen und ein möglicher Zusammenhang zwischen dem Grad der Erfüllung von evidenzbasierten Qualitätsindikatoren und der Krankenhaussterblichkeit untersucht. Wir konnten zeigen, dass von 1998 bis 2015 die altersstandardisierten Schlaganfall Mortalitätsraten über 50%, sowohl bei Männern als auch bei Frauen, abgenommen haben. Stratifiziert nach pathologischem Schlaganfallsubtyp zeigte sich ein stärkerer Rückgang in den Mortalitätsraten nach ischämischem Schlaganfall als in der Mortalitätsrate nach hämorrhagischem Schlaganfall. In allen Strata sind die Mortalitätsraten gesunken, jedoch unterschieden sich die zeitlichen Verläufe zwischen den Strata (Geschlecht, Region). Die mittels Joinpoint Regression geschätzten Anzahlen an Änderungen im zeitlichen Trend der ischämischen Schlaganfall Mortalitätsraten variierten zwischen 0 und maximal 3 Änderungen, zwischen den Regionen und Geschlechtern. Die zeitlichen Trends der Mortalitätsraten nach hämorrhagischem Schlaganfall der beiden Regionen verliefen hingegen parallel zueinander und es zeigte sich nur bei Frauen eine Änderung in der Mortalitätsrate nach der Joinpoint Regression. Die Schlaganfall Mortalitätsraten im östlichen Teil von Deutschland waren über die gesamte Zeit hinweg höher als im westlichen Teil von Deutschland, jedoch glichen sich die Raten ab 2007 immer mehr einander an und es zeigte sich nur noch ein geringer Unterschied in 2015. Die altersadjustierten Letalitätsraten und Rezidivraten nach ischämischem Schlaganfall waren in Deutschland, basierend auf Daten des bevölkerungsbasierten Erlanger Schlaganfall Registers, relativ hoch. Innerhalb der ersten fünf Jahre nach einem ischämischen Schlaganfall sterben 46% und 20% aller Patienten bekommen einen erneuten Schlaganfall. Von 1996 bis 2015 haben die Letalitätsraten nach Schlaganfall signifikant abgenommen, dies zeigte sich in allen Subtypen des ischämischen Schlaganfalls. Die Rezidivraten zeigten keinen signifikanten Rückgang. Basierend auf gepoolten Daten aus den Jahren 2015/2016 von neun krankenhausbasierten Schlaganfall Registern in Deutschland, die ca. 80% aller hospitalisierten Schlaganfälle in Deutschland abdecken, ist die, mittels 11 evidenzbasierter Prozessindikatoren gemessene Qualität der Behandlung des ischämischen Schlaganfalls, hoch. In allen Registern lagen die meisten Qualitätsindikatoren über dem vorabdefinierten Referenzwert für eine gute Qualität an Schlaganfallversorgung. Ein Zusammenhang zwischen 7-Tage Krankenhaussterblichkeit und Erfüllung von einzelnen Qualitätsindikatoren, konnte bei 9 von 11 Qualitätsindikatoren gezeigt werden. Zusätzlich zeigte sich ein inverser Zusammenhang zwischen der Gesamteinhaltung von Qualitätsindikatoren und 7-Tage Krankenhaussterblichkeit. Schlaganfall Mortalitätsrate und Letalitätsraten zeigten eine positive Entwicklung in allen Subtypen des Schlaganfalls über die letzten 20 Jahre. Dies könnte mit Verbesserungen in der Behandlung des akuten ischämischen Schlaganfalls im Krankenhaus zusammenhängen, da ein Zusammenhang zwischen der Erfüllung von Qualitätsindikatoren und der Krankenhaussterblichkeit besteht. Jedoch besteht möglicherweise noch Verbesserungspotenzial in der langfristigen Sekundärprävention, da in den Rezidivraten kein klarer Rückgang erkennbar war.

When experimental units exhibit a smooth trend over time or in space, random allocation of treatments may no longer be appropriate. Instead, systematic run orders may have to be used to reduce or eliminate the effects of such a trend. The resulting designs are referred to as trend-free designs. We consider here, in particular, linear trend-free designs for factorial treatment structures such that estimates of main effects and two-factor interactions are trend-free. In addition to trend-freeness we incorporate a general cost structure and propose methods of constructing optimal or near-optimal full or fractional factorial designs. Building upon the generalized foldover scheme (GFS) introduced by Coster and Cheng (1988) we develop a procedure of selection of foldover vectors (SFV) which is a construction method for an appropriate generator matrix. The final optimal or near-optimal design can then be developed from this generator matrix. To achieve a reduction in the amount of work, i.e., a reduction of the large number of possible generator matrices, and to make this whole process easier to use by a practitioner, we introduce the systematic selection of foldover vectors (SSFV). This method does not always produce optimal designs but in all cases practical compromise designs. The cost structure for factorial designs can be modeled according to the number of level changes for the various factors. In general, if cost needs to be kept to a minimum, factor level changes will have to be kept at a minimum. This introduces a covariance structure for the observations from such an experiment. We consider the consequences of this covariance structure with respect to the analysis of trend-free factorial designs. We formulate an appropriate underlying mixed linear model and propose an AIC-based method using simulation studies, which leads to a useful practical linear model as compared to the theoretical model, because the theoretical model is not always feasible. Overall, we show that estimation of main effects and two-factor interactions, trend-freeness, and minimum cost cannot always be achieved simultaneously. As a consequence, compromise designs have to be considered, which satisfy requirements as much as possible and are practical at the same time. The proposed methods achieve this aim. / Ph. D.

Streamflow in Western North America (WNA) has been experiencing pronounced changes in terms of volume and timing over the past century, primarily driven by natural climate variability and human-induced climate changes. This thesis advances on previous work by revealing the most recent streamflow changes in WNA using a comprehensive suite of classical hydrometric methods along with novel Deep Learning (DL) based approaches for change detection and classifica- tion. More than 500 natural streams were included in the analysis across western Canada and the United States. Trend analyses based on the Mann-Kendall test were conducted on a wide selection of classic hydrometric indicators to represent varying aspects of streamflow over 43 years from 1979 to 2021. A general geograph- ical divide at approximately 46◦N degrees latitude indicates that total streamflow is increasing to the north while declining to the south. Declining late summer flows (July–September) were also widespread across the WNA domain, coinciding with an overall reduction in precipitation. Some changing patterns are regional specific, including: 1) increased winter low flows at high latitudes; 2) earlier spring freshet in Rocky Mountains; 3) increased autumns flows in coastal Pacific North- west; and 4) dramatic drying in southwestern United States. In addition to classic hydrometrics, trend analysis was performed on Latent Features (LFs), which were extracted by Variation AutoEncoder (VAE) from raw streamflow data and are considered “machine-learned hydrometrics”. Some LFs with direct hydrological implications were closely associated with the classical hydrometric indicators such as flow quantity, seasonal distribution, timing and magnitude of freshet, and snow- to-rain transition. The changing patterns of streamflows revealed by LFs show direct agreement with the hydrometric trends. By reconstructing hydrographs from select LFs, VAE also provides a mechanism to project changes in streamflow patterns in the future. Furthermore, a parametric t-SNE method based on DL technology was developed to visualize similarity among a large number of hydro- graphs on a 2-D map. This novel method allowed fast grouping of hydrologically similar rivers based on their flow regime type and provides new opportunities for streamflow classification and regionalization. / Thesis / Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)