Transportation planners are often faced with the problem of estimating passenger and freight flows between regions. In the literature there are many models for passenger flows. However, models about freight flows are more limited. Modeling freight flow is also more complex than modeling passenger flow and there are many agents related with freight flows. In addition, data availability is a critical factor. In this research, freight flows between provinces in T&uuml / rkiye are forecasted by demand analysis. Transportation is one of the important activities of human beings and plays an important role for spatial interactions in economic growth. In other words, there is a very strong linkage between economic growth and the freight flow, thus transportation demand. Regional trade as spatial flow appears on transportation systems as freight flows. In this study, using the existing limited data and surveys in T&uuml / rkiye, nationwide origin-destination (O-D) matrix of freight flows between provinces is obtained. Using this empirical matrix, the generation of freight flows of provinces is formulated depending on the socioeconomic and demographic variables by means of multiple linear regression analysis. In addition, interactions of freight flows between provinces and economic growth of regions are investigated. The generations and attractions of provinces as freight flow are distributed between provinces with traditional gravity model. By comparing observed O-D matrix and simulated O-D matrix, gravity model is calibrated. Calibration is also performed by freight trip length distribution. In this research, two steps of traditional &ldquo / four-step analysis&rdquo / , &ldquo / trip generation&rdquo / and &ldquo / trip distribution&rdquo / , are applied to develop nationwide freight demand model between the provinces in T&uuml / rkiye. The developed model is single-mode, single commodity and nationwide.

TBEST is a comprehensive third generation transit demand forecasting model, developed by the FDOT Public Transit Office (PTO) to help transit agencies in completing their Transit Development Plans (TDPs). The on-going project funded by FDOT, related to TBEST, aims at further enhancing the capabilities of the TBEST model based on additional opportunities identified by the research team. The project focuses on enhancing TBEST’s capabilities in following areas: 1) Improving the precision of socio- demographic data by using property appraisal data (parcel data) and, 2) Improving the quality of data regarding trip attraction. Based on the improvement areas, this study aims at performing an exploratory analysis to 1) Identify the differences in activity levels (population and employment) within transit stop buffers due to change in input data i.e. from aggregate census data to disaggregate parcel data. 2) Explore various strategies (development of employment based trip attraction and, parcel land use based trip attraction and exploring how special generators are dealt with in the past studies) to enhance the trip attraction capability of the TBEST model. The results obtained from this analysis provide insights on the strategies and helps define suggestions to further enhance the precision of TBEST model. The results show that use of parcel level data improves the accuracy in capturing the activity levels within the catchment area of each stop. The results also suggest use of parcel land use based trip attraction for stops with special generators or use of interaction variable (interaction between special generator dummy and size (square footage etc.) of the special generator) to enhance the trip attraction capability of the TBEST model.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-02T19:58:06Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 5765.pdf: 8433563 bytes, checksum: bc40da772298b0f470eb5aabbd956292 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-06-29 / Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos / This work aims to present trip attraction models and rates to public hospitals located in mediumsized cities in the interior of the state of São Paulo Brazil. The hospitals cause significant impacts in the local traffic and because of that they can be characterized as Potential Trip Generation Centers. In this sense, this research presents rates and models that allow us to analyze the possible impacts related to trips attracted by new hospitals. In the development of the proposed models and rates, it was performed a research in seven Santas Casas de Misericórdia hospitals in seven medium-sized cities: São Carlos, Marília, Sertãozinho, Rio Claro, Jaú, Mogi- Guaçú and Araras. The data of the first five cases were used in the development of the trip attraction models and rates, while the last two ones were used to validate the developed models. In these hospitals were performed traffic counting of pedestrians, private vehicles, buses, motorcycles and bicycles, and also interviews with the users. Through the developed analysis were elaborated models of simple regression, multiple regressions, simple regression by trip objective and mode of transport and multiple regressions with dummy variables. Some of the models developed were validated by data collected and thus they were considered more reliable to be used in Brazilian hospitals than models of the Institute of Transportation Engineers-ITE. To complement this study, it was performed a doctoral internship in Madrid, Spain in 2011 where specific models were developed with data from four public hospitals of that city. Through the application of the elaborate models and the models of ITE, it was found that the models developed for Madrid are also more suitable to estimate the travels to Spanish hospitals than the models of the ITE. Thus, this study found that for Brazilian cities, where the second mode of transportation is the bus, and for the Spanish city where the second mode of transportation is the subway, the ITE models, that consider only travels by car, may not be sufficient to estimate the travels. / Este trabalho visa apresentar modelos e taxas de atração de viagens para hospitais localizados em cidades de porte médio do interior do estado de São Paulo - Brasil. Os hospitais causam impactos significativos no tráfego local, por isso, se caracterizam como potenciais Polos Geradores de Viagens PGVs. Nesse sentido, esta pesquisa apresenta taxas e modelos que permitem analisar os possíveis impactos em relação às viagens atraídas por novos empreendimentos hospitalares. Para o desenvolvimento das taxas e dos modelos foram realizados levantamentos de dados em sete hospitais com o padrão das Santas Casas de Misericórdia de sete cidades de porte médio: São Carlos, Marília, Sertãozinho, Rio Claro, Jaú, Mogi-Guaçú e Araras. Os dados dos cinco primeiros hospitais foram utilizados na elaboração das taxas e dos modelos de atração de viagens, enquanto que, os dois últimos, foram utilizados no processo de validação dos modelos desenvolvidos. Nesses hospitais realizaram-se contagens volumétricas de pedestres, de automóveis, de ônibus, motos, bicicletas, além de entrevistas junto aos usuários. Por meio das análises desenvolvidas elaboraram-se modelos de regressão simples, de regressão múltipla, de regressão simples por objetivos de viagens e por modos de transportes e de regressão múltipla com variáveis dummy. Alguns dos modelos elaborados foram validados pelos dados de campo e, portanto, eles foram considerados mais confiáveis para serem aplicados em hospitais brasileiros do que os modelos norte-americanos (Institute of Transportation Engineers-ITE). Para complementar esta pesquisa foi realizado um estágio de doutorado em Madrid-Espanha no ano de 2011 em que foram elaborados modelos específicos com dados de quatro hospitais públicos daquela cidade. Por meio da aplicação dos modelos elaborados e dos modelos ITE, verificou-se que os modelos elaborados para Madri também foram mais indicados para estimar viagens dos hospitais espanhóis do que os modelos do ITE. Deste modo, nesta pesquisa constatou-se que tanto para as cidades brasileiras, em que o segundo modo de transporte é o ônibus, quanto para a cidade espanhola, onde o segundo modo de transporte é o metrô, os modelos do ITE que, consideram somente as viagens por automóveis, podem não ser suficientes para estimar suas viagens.

A crescente escassez dos recursos energéticos renováveis, bem como o contínuo aumento dos seus custos tem requerido nas últimas décadas uma redução drástica no consumo de energia utilizada para o transporte de cargas e passageiros. A indústria siderúrgica pode contribuir decisivamente neste contexto, disponibilizando no mercado aços de maior resistência mecânica, os quais podem ser utilizados em estruturas mais esbeltas. Os aços com elevados teores de Mn (15-30%) representam um desenvolvimento muito recente de ligas ferrosas puramente austeníticas, que reúnem resistência mecânica elevada e grande ductilidade. Além disso, trata-se de ligas de baixo custo devido à eliminação dos elevados teores de Ni necessários para a estabilização da austenita e ao reduzido tempo de processamento, que dispensa tratamentos térmicos e processamentos termomecânicos controlados. Por outro lado, a redução de peso estrutural no setor automobilístico requer não somente a pesquisa de novos aços, mas também a utilização de componentes híbridos, resultantes, entre outros, da união dos aços austeníticos alto Mn com aços comerciais estruturais de alta resistência e baixa liga (ARBL). Nesta dissertação, estudou-se, portanto, a soldabilidade pelo processo de fricção e mistura mecânica (SFMM) de aço austenítico alto Mn com efeito TRIP (plasticidade induzida por transformação martensítica) com aço ARBL processado termomecanicamente tipo XABO500 (ThyssenKrupp Steel, limite de escoamento > 460 MPa). As placas de aço TRIP foram fabricadas na EESC-USP com composição Fe-22.5% Mn-0.4% C através de fundição sob atmosfera protetora de argônio, tratamento térmico de homogenização e laminação a quente a 1150°C. As juntas dissimilares TRIP-ARBL foram produzidas com chapas de 3.5 mm de espessura. Os ensaios de soldagem SFMM foram conduzidos com ferramenta de compósito PCBN-WRe. O aporte térmico de soldagem foi variado através do uso de três velocidades de rotação da ferramenta: 300, 400 e 500 rpm, e o avanço foi de 100 mm/min. Dois deslocamentos (offsets) da ferramenta foram investigados: +1.0 e +2.0 mm em direção ao aço TRIP. Os resultados revelaram um acabamento superficial satisfatório das juntas soldadas com 300 e 400 rpm. A penetração de soldagem aumentou com a velocidade de rotação da ferramenta e com um maior deslocamento da ferramenta em direção ao aço TRIP devido ao crescimento do aporte térmico. A SFMM produziu em ambos os lados das juntas dissimilares uma microestrutura caracterizada apenas por zona de mistura (ZM) e zona termicamente afetada (ZTA), não sendo observada a formação de zonas termomecanicamente afetadas (ZTMA). Na ZM do aço ARBL, a SFMM produziu uma microestrutura polifásica, contendo misturas de ferrita acicular, bainita e martensita. O lado TRIP da ZM não exibiu sinais de transformação martensítica induzida por deformação e sofreu recristalização dinâmica com a formação de uma austenita refinada em comparação com o metal de base. A junta produzida com menor aporte térmico (300 RPM e Offset +1) apresentou os maiores picos de dureza na ZM do aço TRIP devido à maior taxa de resfriamento e, consequentemente, a microestrutura mais fina. Apesar dos maiores picos de dureza, a junta produzida com 300 RPM e Offset +1 apresentou o melhor desempenho no ensaio de tração, atingindo o maior percentual de alongamento a fratura e rompendo no metal de base ARBL. Isso se deve provavelmente à formação de ferrita acicular mais fina na ZM do aço ARBL com microestrutura entrelaçada e de maior tenacidade, se comparado com o metal de base ARBL. / The increasing scarcity of renewable energy resources and their continuously rising costs have required in the last decades a drastic reduction in the energy consumption for the transportation of goods and passengers. The steel industry can decisively contribute in this context by providing the market with steel grades of increased mechanical strength, which can be incorporated into light-weight structures. Steels with high Mn contents (15-30%) represent a recent development of austenitic ferrous alloys that combine elevated mechanical strength with high ductility. In addition, those steel grades correspond to low cost alloys due to the replacement of the high Ni contents necessary to stabilize the austenite as well as the reduced manufacturing time that does not involve subsequent heat treatments or controlled thermo-mechanical processing. On the other hand, the reduction of structural weight in the automotive sector does not only require the research on novel steels, but also the use of hybrid components that result among others from joining austenitic high-Mn steels to commercial structural high-strength low-alloyed (HSLA) steel grades. In this work, we studied therefore the friction stir weldability of an austenitic high-Mn steel with TRIP (transformation induced plasticity) effect to the thermomechanically processed HSLA XABO500 steel grade (ThyssenKrupp Steel, yield strength > 460 MPa). High-Mn TRIP steel plates were produced at the EESC-USP with the chemical composition of Fe-22.5% Mn-0.4% C by casting under protective argon atmosphere, followed by homogenization treatment and hot rolling at 1150°C. The dissimilar TRIP-HSLA joints were produced using 3.5 mm thick plates. The friction stir welding (FSW) experiments were carried out with a tool made of a PCBN-WRe composite. The heat input was varied by using three tool rotational speeds: 300, 400 and 500 rpm. The welding speed was set to 100 mm/min. Two different tool offsets were investigated: +1.0 and +2.0 mm towards the high-Mn TRIP steel. The results revealed that a satisfactory surface finishing is achieved for the butt-joints produced with 300 and 400 rpm. The welding penetration increased for higher tool rotational speeds and larger tool offsets towards the TRIP steel because of an increased heat input. FSW produced at both sides of the dissimilar joints a microstructure characterized by only stir zone (SZ) and heat-affected zone (HAZ). Thermo-mechanical affected zones (TMAZ) could not be observed. In the SZ of the HSLA steel, FSW produced a multiphase microstructure that contains a mixture of acicular ferrite, bainite and martensite. The TRIP side of the SZ did not exhibit traces of strain induced martensitic transformation and underwent dynamic recrystallization with the formation of a fine-grained austenite in comparison to the base material. The butt-joint produced with the lowest heat input (300 RPM and Offset +1) developed the highest hardness peaks in the SZ of the TRIP steel because of the increased cooling rate and, consequently, the more refined microstructure. In spite of the hardest zones, the butt-joint produced with 300 RPM and offset +1 achieved the best performance in the tensile tests by reaching the largest elongation to fracture and having the failure in the HSLA base material. This is likely promoted by the formation of a more refined acicular ferrite in the SZ of the HSLA steel with interpenetrated microstructure and enhanced toughness in comparison to the HSLA base material.

Le grenaillage de précontrainte est un procédé couramment utilisé dans l’industrie (automobile, aréonautique, …) pour augmenter la durée de vie des pièces mécaniques et de structure : des contraintes de compression sont générées par déformation plastique de la surface. Dans le cas des aciers TRIP (TRansformation Induced Plasticity), qui possèdent une microstructure complexe, l’austénite métastable est susceptible de se transformer en martensite lors du grenaillage. L’état de contraintes obtenu est donc complexe : il résulte de l’effet combiné de la déformation plastique induite par le procédé et de la transformation martensitique qui conduit à une redistribution des contraintes entre l’austénite et la martensite. Ce travail a pour objectif de caractériser expérimentalement l’état mécanique, à l’échelle des phases, de différents aciers TRIP (AISI 301LN, TRIP 780 et 23MnCrMo5) ainsi que leurs fractions de phase respectives après grenaillage et d’en proposer une modélisation par éléments finis pouvant être, à terme, utilisée en bureaux d’études. Le modèle élastoplastique à transformation de phase, développé dans cette thèse, permet de prédire l’évolution des différents champs mécaniques, de manière macroscopique mais également à l’échelle des phases, ainsi que l’évolution de la fraction d’austénite résiduelle. / Shot-peening is commonly used in mechanical industries to increase life duration of mechanical and structural parts: residual compressive stresses are developed at the sub-surface of the material by plastic stretching of the surface. In the case of TRIP-effect steels (TRansformation Induced Plasticity), the metastable austenite can transform into martensite during shot-peening. The final distribution of stress is then more complex than for “standard steels” as it results from the mechanical strain imposed by the process and the martensitic transformation leading to a stress redistribution between austenite, martensite and the other phases. This work aims to characterize experimentally the mechanical state, at phase scale, of different TRIP steels (AISI 301LN, TRIP 780 and 23MnCrMo5) as well as the fraction of each phase after shot-peening and to propose a numerical model by finite elements which could be used in the future by engineering offices. An elastoplastic model with phase transformation was developed in this thesis which permits to predict the evolution of mechanical variables, macroscopically and at the phase scale, as well as the evolution of austenite volume fraction

Das Elektronenstrahlschweißen im Vakuum hat sich als zuverlässiges Verfahren für die Herstellung schmaler und hochpräziser Schweißnähte beim Schweißen von TRIP-Stählen bewährt. Das Verständnis für die dabei auftretenden Mechanismen und wirkenden Kräfte stellt einen wichtigen Baustein für die Weiterentwicklung des Verfahrens dar. Um zur Erweiterung dieses Verständnisses beizutragen, wird auf Basis vorhandener Berechnungsmethoden in OpenFOAM ein numerisches Modell für das Elektronenstrahlschweißen entwickelt. Es ist in der Lage, die dafür relevanten Einflussfaktoren zu berücksichtigen. So werden die Wärmeübertragung im Feststoff und der Schmelze, alle Aggregatzustandsänderungen und die auf die Dynamik der Schmelze wirkenden Kräfte einbezogen. Das entwickelte Simulationsmodell ist in der Lage zu zeigen, dass außer der natürlichen Konvektion vor allem der beim Verdampfen der Schmelze entstehende Überdruck und die thermokapillare Konvektion an der Schmelzeoberfläche für hohe Strömungsgeschwindigkeiten verantwortlich sind. Darüber hinaus haben neben der Schmelzbaddynamik die thermophysikalischen Eigenschaften des Stahls einen starken Einfluss auf die Ausprägung der Schweißnaht. Vor allem die Wärmeleitfähigkeit verändert diese erheblich, was die Simulationen unter Berücksichtigung der Temperaturabhängigkeit verdeutlichen. Die in dieser Arbeit erreichten Erkenntnisse helfen, die beim Elektronenstrahlschweißen entstehenden Nahtgeometrien und die Gründe für hohe Strömungsgeschwindigkeiten im Schmelzbad besser einordnen und verstehen zu können. Darüber hinaus dient das entwickelte numerische Modell mit der Berücksichtigung aller relevanten Mechanismen als Grundlage für Weiterentwicklungen hinsichtlich vielerlei Anwendungen, beispielsweise für das Schweißen anderer Werkstoffe, zusätzliche Effekte wie dem Spiking oder anderen Elektronenstrahltechnologien wie dem Elektronenstrahlschmelzen im Bereich der additiven Fertigung.

Existing travel patterns in Windhoek are influenced by the past land use policy of restricted urban development in the former townships ofKatutura and Khomasdal. Thus residents in these townships are faced with longer distances to reach quality urban servtces. This thesis examined the impact on travel demand of changes in land use policies aimed at stimulating growth in the two areas using the HLFM computer model. The results showed that, policy induced land use changes may stimulate population and employment growth in the neglected areas, but with no effects on the present travel patterns. The model needs to be refined to fit the peculiarity of the study area. Nevertheless, information provided in the thesis could be used in assessing areas where development trends will go if any ofthe land use policy tested in the study is adopted. / Geography / M.A. (Geography)

Die verformungsinduzierten Phasenumwandlungen und die Zwillingsbildung wurden in drei metastabilen austenitischen Cr-Mn-Ni-Stählen mit unterschiedlichem Nickelgehalt im breiten Temperaturbereich untersucht. Die entwickelten STU- und DTU-Diagramme fassen die gewonnenen Erkenntnisse zusammen und charakterisieren die verformungsinduzierten Gefügeänderungsprozesse in Abhängigkeit von der Spannung und der Temperatur. Die thermodynamischen Berechnungen bestätigen die Unterschiede in der chemischen Triebkraft für die Martensitumwandlung zwischen den Stählen und erklären unterschiedliches Werkstoffverhalten. Ein thermodynamisch-mechanisches Modell der verformungsinduzierten α‘-Martensitbildung wurde entwickelt. Der maximale α‘-Martensitanteil wird als Funktion der Gesamttriebkraft und der Temperatur mit einer guten Genauigkeit beschrieben. Des Weiteren wurde ein Modell der Umwandlungsplastizität mit Berücksichtigung der Plastizitätsverringerung infolge der isothermen oder spannungsinduzierten Martensitbildung entwickelt. Außerdem wurde der Einfluss von Mikroseigerungen auf die verformungsinduzierte Martensitbildung anhand drei Modellstähle untersucht und bestätigt.

Um dos enfoques mais utilizados na modelagem de geração de viagens de passageiros urbanos é a desagregação em nível de domicílios. Esta tese oferece razões lógicas e fortes evidências estatísticas para substituir modelos baseados em domicílios, introduzindo modelos desagregados em nível de indivíduos incorporando a influência das características e da estrutura do domicílio. Estes modelos provêm um considerável avanço sobre as práticas tradicionais. Um estudo de caso foi conduzido na região metropolitana de São Paulo - SP. Utilizou-se informação em nível individual, através de algumas variáveis disponíveis na pesquisa origem/destino de 1987 da Cia. do Metropolitano de São Paulo. Foi possível verificar várias vantagens em relação aos modelos tradicionais, bem como responder várias críticas aos modelos atuais. Analisou-se também os erros obtidos com o modelo individual com e sem a influência das características e estrutura domiciliares. / One approach that is widely used to conduct the urban passenger trip generation modelling is the disaggregate household based model. This thesis offers logical reasons and strong statistical evidences to replace household based models, indroducing individual disaggregate models, incorporating the influence of household characteristics and structure. These models represent a significant improvement over tradicional practice. A case study was conducted using data from metropolitan region of Sao Paulo City, Sao Paulo State. Information at individual levei was used, tluough some variables available in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Company, 1987 origin/destination research. It was possible to verify several advantages in relation to traditional models as well as to answer several criticisms to the current models. It was also analysed errors obtained in the individual models with and without the influence of household characteristics and structure.

Um dos enfoques mais utilizados na modelagem de geração de viagens de passageiros urbanos é a desagregação em nível de domicílios. Esta tese oferece razões lógicas e fortes evidências estatísticas para substituir modelos baseados em domicílios, introduzindo modelos desagregados em nível de indivíduos incorporando a influência das características e da estrutura do domicílio. Estes modelos provêm um considerável avanço sobre as práticas tradicionais. Um estudo de caso foi conduzido na região metropolitana de São Paulo - SP. Utilizou-se informação em nível individual, através de algumas variáveis disponíveis na pesquisa origem/destino de 1987 da Cia. do Metropolitano de São Paulo. Foi possível verificar várias vantagens em relação aos modelos tradicionais, bem como responder várias críticas aos modelos atuais. Analisou-se também os erros obtidos com o modelo individual com e sem a influência das características e estrutura domiciliares. / One approach that is widely used to conduct the urban passenger trip generation modelling is the disaggregate household based model. This thesis offers logical reasons and strong statistical evidences to replace household based models, indroducing individual disaggregate models, incorporating the influence of household characteristics and structure. These models represent a significant improvement over tradicional practice. A case study was conducted using data from metropolitan region of Sao Paulo City, Sao Paulo State. Information at individual levei was used, tluough some variables available in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Company, 1987 origin/destination research. It was possible to verify several advantages in relation to traditional models as well as to answer several criticisms to the current models. It was also analysed errors obtained in the individual models with and without the influence of household characteristics and structure.