Currently, the accurate prediction of the impact of an extreme wave on infrastructure located near shore is difficult to assess. There is a lack of established methods to accurately quantify these impacts. Extreme waves, such as tsunamis generate, through breaking, extremely powerful hydraulic bores that impact and significantly damage coastal structures and buildings located close to the shoreline. The damage induced by such hydraulic bores is often due to structural failure. Examples of devastating coastal disasters are the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, 2005 Hurricane Katrina and most recently, the 2011 Tohoku Japan Tsunami. As a result, more advanced research is needed to estimate the magnitude of forces exerted on structures by such bores. This research presents results of a numerical model based on the Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) method which is used to simulate the impact of extreme hydrodynamic forces on shore protection walls. Typically, fluids are modeled numerically based on a Lagrangian approach, an Eulerian approach or a combination of the two. Many of the common problems that arise from using more traditional techniques can be avoided through the use of SPH-based models. Such challenges include the model computational efficiency in terms of complexity of implementation. The SPH method allows water particles to be individually modeled, each with their own characteristics, which then accurately depicts the behavior and properties of the flow field. An open source code, known as SPHysics, was used to run the simulations presented in this thesis. Several cases analysed consist of hydraulic bores impacting a flat vertical wall as well as a sloping seawall. The analysis includes comparisons of the numerical results with published experimental data. The model is shown to accurately reproduce the formation of solitary waves as well as their propagation and breaking. The impacting bore profiles as well as the resulting pressures are also efficiently simulated using the model.

Natural disasters usually occur without any warning. They can leave trail of destruction and cause much tragedy. We are at a time when we witness fast technological advances; hence, we need to apply the force of scientific advancements to decrease economic losses and the number of human deaths. Tsunami is one of the extreme environmental events that leaves nothing but a path of death and destruction, and as a result, it is essential to understand this phenomenon and identify the mitigation strategies. Several mitigation strategies have been proposed so far; however, more investigations are still required to achieve an acceptable solution. Researchers around the world are studying different aspects of this phenomenon. One of the proposed solutions that has received much attention is designing tsunami-resistant structures which can withstand the force of a tsunami bore. Various studies have been done so far to understand the base shear force of tsunami bore on structures. The focus of this thesis is to improve and better understand the characteristics of the tsunami base shear forces on structures. Hence, in this thesis, two numerical studies were proposed and performed with the main goal of estimating the total tsunami forces on structure under two different conditions. Those include structures with various cross sections, as well as positioning a mitigation wall at an appropriate location relative to the structure. The first study focused on developing a numerical model to study the relationship between tsunami forces and the geometry of the structure. The main goal of this study was to define a numerical model capable of simulating this case precisely. To ensure the accuracy of the model, a comparison was carried out between the results of the numerical model and experimental test performed at the NRC-CHC (National Research Council- Canadian Hydraulics Center) laboratory in Ottawa, Canada and Université Catholique de Louvain (UCL), Belgium, which revealed a very good agreement between the results of the experimental test and numerical model. Further, the validated model was applied to investigate the tsunami force on structures with various cross sections. The second study focus was on developing a numerical model for understanding the role of mitigation wall (a novel idea proposed as a mitigation strategy by the second author of technical paper 2) on reducing the exerted force of tsunami on structures. After developing various models and applying several turbulence models, a valuable result was obtained which demonstrated that a Large Eddy Simulation (LES) model seems to be an excellent approach for predicting the tsunami forces on the structure with a mitigation wall in the direction of the flow. The results of this study will be used to better estimate the tsunami forces exerted on coastal structures which will light the path to the main goal of designing tsunami resistant-structures.

Deep-ocean pressure measurements are a necessary component for ocean characterization and oceanographic monitoring. Some principle applications such as tsunami detection and ocean floor subsidence are reliant on deep-ocean pressure measurement data. The deep ocean is a challenging environment especially for pressure measurements; discerning pressure changes that are a small fraction of the ambient pressure calls for intelligent engineering solutions. An ocean-deployable concept model of a pressure sensor is developed. The design is based on a diaphragm transducer intended for measuring hydrostatic pressure changes on the order of 1 centimeter of water (cmH2O) while exposed to ambient pressures several orders of magnitude greater for up to 2500 meters of water (mH2O). Two laboratory-scale pressure sensors are fabricated to test the fundamental principle of the proposed concept at lab-safe pressures. One is a single-sided sensor exposed to atmospheric pressure. The second sensor is a two-sided design that operates at a defined target depth pressure and measures the differential pressure across both faces of the diaphragm. The sensor design built for atmospheric pressure testing observed a mean experimental sensitivity of 6.05 pm/cmH2O in contrast to 6 pm/cmH2O determined theoretically. The percent error between the experimental and theoretical values is 0.83%. The second design was tested at target depth pressures of 10, 20, 40, and 60 psi (7, 14, 28, and 42 mH2O) and performance was within 5.8%, 2.8%, 0.7%, 4.0% respectively when considering percent error of the mean experimental and theoretical. The repeatability was sufficient for a given sample and pressure response within the range proposed in theory when a pressure preload was present to the diaphragm. Future work will aim at developing a design concept that incorporates a piston and is tested at a higher hydrostatic pressure system, and within ocean waters. A deployment plan and consideration of challenges associated with ocean testing will be accounted for. / Graduate

Determining risk to human populations due to natural disasters has been a topic of interest in the STEM fields for centuries. Earthquakes and the tsunamis they cause are of particular interest due to their repetition cycles. These cycles can last hundreds of years but we have only had modern measuring instruments for the last century or so which makes analysis difficult. In this document, we explore ways to improve upon an existing method for reconstructing earthquakes from historical accounts of tsunamis. This method was designed and implemented by Jared P Whitehead's research group over the last 5 years. The issue of this method that we address is the relatively slow convergence. One reason for this slow convergence is caused by the random walk proposal step in the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. We explore ways of constructing an approximate gradient of the model in order to apply a more robust MCMC Method called MALA that uses a gradient combined with some randomness to propose new samples. The types of approximate gradients we explore were a heuristic gradient, a data driven gradient and a gradient of a surrogate model. We chose to use the gradient of a simplified tsunami formula for our implementation. Our MALA algorithm under performed the previous random walk method which we believe implies that the simplified tsunami model didn't give sufficient information to guide the proposed samples in the optimal direction. Further experimentation would be needed to confirm this and we are confident that there are other ways we can improve our convergence as specified in the future work section. Our method is built into the existing Python package tsunamibayes. It is available, open-source, on GitHub: https://github.com/jwp37/tsunamibayes.

Tsunamis represent significant threats to human life and development in coastal communities. This quantitative study examines the influence of household characteristics on evacuation actions taken by 211 respondents in American Samoa who were at their homes during the 29 September 2009 Mw 8.1 Samoa Islands earthquake and tsunami disaster. Multiple logistic regression analysis of survey data was used to examine the association between evacuation and various household factors. Findings show that increases in distance to shoreline were associated with a slightly decreased likelihood of evacuation, whereas households reporting higher income had an increased probability of evacuation. The response in American Samoa was an effective one, with only 34 fatalities in a tsunami that reached shore in as little as 15 minutes. Consequently, future research should implement more qualitative study designs to identify event and cultural specific determinants of household evacuation behaviour to local tsunamis.

Purpose – Near-field tsunamis provide short warning periods of equal to 30 minutes, which can complicate at-risk individuals’ protective action decisions. In the face of a tsunami, people may turn to individuals such as friends, family, neighbors, or organizations such as the media to obtain warning information to help facilitate evacuation and/or to seek protection from the hazard. To characterize norms for protection action behavior during a near-field tsunami, the purpose of this paper is to explore American Samoan residents’ perceptions of four social stakeholder groups on three characteristics – tsunami knowledge, trustworthiness, and protection responsibility – regarding the September 29, 2009, Mw 8.1 earthquake and tsunami in American Samoa. Design/methodology/approach – The social stakeholder groups were the respondents themselves, their peers, officials, and media. Mean ratings revealed that respondents rated themselves highest for tsunami knowledge and protection against the tsunami but rated peers highest for trustworthiness. In addition, officials had the lowest mean rankings for all three stakeholder characteristics. MANOVA analyses found that there was a statistically significant overall effect for occupation status on respondents’ perceptions of the four stakeholder groups and characteristics. Findings – Employed respondents generally reported higher mean ratings for all stakeholder groups across the three characteristics than those that reported not having an occupation. Given the complexity of evacuation behavior, at-risk individuals may seek the assistance of other community members to support their protective action decisions. Originality/value – The information gathered from this study provides local emergency managers with useful data that could support future disaster resilience efforts for tsunamis.

京都大学 / 新制・論文博士 / 博士(工学) / 乙第13406号 / 論工博第4192号 / 新制||工||1762(附属図書館) / (主査)教授 松島 信一, 教授 竹脇 出, 教授 牧 紀男 / 学位規則第4条第2項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM

Home to the world’s longest coastline, Canada has experienced devastating economic and social from coastal flooding events. While there have been a variety of mitigation methods employed over the years to increase a community’s resistance to coastal hazards, it is unrealistic to think that there exists a solution to guarantee a community’s safety under all possible flood hazards. Instead, the community’s efforts to raise their resistance to flood hazards should be augmented with careful planning and management to increase a community’s resilience to flood hazards, allowing them to recover quickly after a natural disaster. The first step in elevating a community’s resilience is to better understand the expected hazards that it may experience. This thesis presents two unique case studies to better understand the flooding hazards present on the Canadian coastline. A large-scale numerical model that accounts for the presence of ice was developed to investigate storm surges in Canada’s western Arctic. It was found that the quality of the climatic forcing data used, ERA5, was poor in capturing peak wind speeds, but could be compensated for by using elevated wind drag coefficients. The use of non-traditional high-water marks such as driftwood lines were validated and were shown to significantly alter expected flood return periods compared to the return periods estimated from only the incomplete tide gauge measurements present on the Arctic coastline. The second case study extends the results of a tsunami hydrodynamic simulation on Canada’s Pacific coastline through a life safety assessment. The performance between an agent-based and GIS-based approach to modelling tsunami evacuation were directly compared and were shown to yield different magnitudes in fatality rate and facility demand, but similar trends. Both models agreed on a mitigation option that can significantly reduce the loss of life during a tsunami.

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(理学) / 甲第18085号 / 理博第3963号 / 新制||理||1571(附属図書館) / 30943 / 京都大学大学院理学研究科地球惑星科学専攻 / (主査)准教授 藤 浩明, 教授 家森 俊彦, 教授 福田 洋一 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Science / Kyoto University / DFAM

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(情報学) / 甲第18618号 / 情博第542号 / 新制||情||96(附属図書館) / 31518 / 京都大学大学院情報学研究科社会情報学専攻 / (主査)教授 矢守 克也, 教授 多々納 裕一, 准教授 永田 素彦 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Informatics / Kyoto University / DFAM