This thesis investigates the ways in which children were included in the disaster management efforts of four major humanitarian aid organizations following the 2013 typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines. Central concepts are resilience, vulnerability and participation, and the study builds on how these concepts relates to one another. The study examines both the prevalence of efforts addressing children as active participants, as well as the specific forms of active participation that they constitute. Program evaluation reports by Oxfam, UNICEF, IFRC and Save the Children were examined through a qualitative content analysis. The results indicate that contrary to suggestions of previous studies, humanitarian organizations did include children as active participants in their disaster management efforts following typhoon Haiyan. Additional findings include the dominance of school-based participatory efforts, as well as limitations in addressing power structures potentially preventing the long-term resilience-building of children.

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(地球環境学) / 甲第19873号 / 地環博第147号 / 新制||地環||29(附属図書館) / 32909 / 京都大学大学院地球環境学舎環境マネジメント専攻 / (主査)教授 岡﨑 健二, 准教授 小林 広英, 准教授 ｼﾞｪｰﾝ ｼﾝｶﾞｰ / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Global Environmental Studies / Kyoto University / DFAM

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(農学) / 甲第23949号 / 農博第2498号 / 新制||農||1091(附属図書館) / 学位論文||R4||N5384(農学部図書室) / 京都大学大学院農学研究科森林科学専攻 / (主査)教授 北島 薫, 教授 神﨑 護, 教授 北山 兼弘 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Agricultural Science / Kyoto University / DGAM

Ce travail de thèse est une étude multi-échelles de temps de la morphodynamique d'une île barrière soumise à des conditions de forçages paroxysmaux de mousson, de tempêtes tropicales et de typhons. Cette étude se concentre dans un premier temps, sur un large travail de terrain effectué dans le cadre du projet KUN-SHEN. Sept mois de mesures (de novembre 2011 à janvier 2012 et de mai à septembre 2012) ont permis l'acquisition d'un jeu de données inédit dans la littérature, exhaustif et de haute résolution temporelle et spatiale. Des mesures hydrodynamiques du large jusqu’à la zone de jet de rive ont été acquises en parallèle d'un suivi topographique de la plage émergée. Les mesures de vagues ont été acquises à partir d'une bouée au large, de deux houlographes-courantomètres en avant-côte (mesures en continu à 2 Hz) ainsi que de pressiomètres enfouis dans la plage sub-aérienne (mesures en continu à 5 Hz). Les levés topo-bathymétriques ont été réalisés au D-GPS (résolution centimétrique) une fois par semaine pendant la saison de mousson et juste après et avant chaque événements de tempêtes extrêmes pendant la saison des typhons. Le travail d'analyse cible ensuite la morphodynamique de la zone de jet de rive et de la plage émergée sur un panel d’échelles spatio-temporelles allant de l'instantanée à annuelle. A l’échelle instantanée, ce sont les variations d’élévation de la surface libre de l'eau et du lit sableux (quelques secondes) qui sont observées au cours de chacune des phases (montant, apex, tombant) de la tempête tropicale Talim (juin 2012, Hs = 10.34 m et Ts = 14.6 s). Pour le même événement de tempête, la réponse morphologique de toute la plage émergée est ensuite décrite et quantifiée dans le détail à l’échelle événementielle (quelques jours). Les bilans sédimentaires de chacune des saisons sont ensuite quantifiés dans le but de caractériser la dynamique saisonnière (quelques mois) à annuelle d'une barrière sableuse soumise à deux types de forçages extrêmes différents (mousson/typhons). L'impact sur le front de plage, des groupes de tempêtes faibles à modérées pendant l'hiver est ainsi comparé à l'impact des tempêtes extrêmes pendant l'été. On souligne finalement 1) l'importance d'un jeu de mesures in-situ de bonne qualité dans un travail d'analyse morphodynamique, 2) l'essentialité de l’emboîtement des échelles spatio-temporelle ainsi que 3) le rôle du profil morphologique héritée dans la réponse morphologique d'une plage émergée lorsqu'elle est soumise à des conditions de forçages de vent et de vague extrêmes. / This work focuses on a multi-scale analysis of a sand barrier morphodynamics exposed to paroxysmal forcings of monsoon, tropical storms, and typhoons. The study provided a large dataset of in-situ measures acquired in the framework of the KUNSHEN project. Seven months of field work (from November 2011 to January 2012 and from May to September 2012) provided a new, exhaustive and hight resolution measures. Measures of hydrodynamic conditions from offshore to the swash zone are acquired as well as high frequency topographic surveys of the emerged beach. Waves monitoring are from an offshore buoy, two current profilers in the shoreface (continuous measures at 2 Hz) and pressure sensors buried in the sub-aerial beach (continuous measures at 5 Hz). The topo-bathymetric surveys were acquired using D-GPS (centimetric resolution) one time a week during winter season of monsoon and just before and after each extreme storm during summer season of typhoons.Then, analysis focus in the morphodynamics of the swash zone and the emerged beach on a range of scales from instantaneous to one year. At the instantaneous scale, we analyze variations of the water surface fluctuation and sand bed elevation (seconds) during each phases (rising, apex and falling) of the Talim tropical storm (June 2012, Hs = 10.34 m and Ts = 14.6 s). Concerning the same storm, we characterize the morphologic changes of the whole emerged beach at the evenemential scale (days). Sand balances of each seasons are quantified in order to characterize the dynamics from seasonal scale (months) to annual scale of a sand barrier driven by two types of extreme forcings (monsoon/typhoons). On the beach-front, impact of groups of winter weak storms is compared to the impact of extremes tropical storms and typhoons. To conclude, we highlight 1) importance of in-situ measures in morphodynamic studies, 2) the major role of scales stacking and 3) the role of herited beach profile in the morphologic responses of the emerged beach driven by extremes forcings of wind and wave.

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The topographical variations of the seas around Taiwan are great, which make the tides complicated. Taiwan is located in the juncture of the tropical and subtropical area. Geographically, it is located within the region of northwestern Pacific typhoon path. These seasonal and geographical situations causing Taiwan frequently threaten by typhoons during summer and autumn. In addition to natural disasters, the coastal area is over developed for the last few decades, which destroys the balance between nature and man. Storms and floods constantly threaten the lowland areas along the coast. An accurate and efficient storm surge model can be used to predict tides and storm surges. The model can be calibrated and verified with the field observations. Data measured by instruments at the tidal station constituting daily tidal variations and storm surge influences during typhoons. The model can offer both predictions to the management institutions and to the general public as pre-warning system and thus taking disaster-prevention measures. This study implements the numerical model, developed by Yu (1993) and Yu et al. (1994) to calculate the hydrodynamic in the seas around Taiwan. The main purpose of this study is to make a calibration and sensitivity analysis of the model parameters. Tidal gauge data around Taiwan coastal stations collected from June to October 2005 are used for the analysis and the comparison between the modeled data and the observations. Two steps have been taken for the model calibration and sensitivity analysis. First step is to calibrate the model for accurate prediction of the astronomical tide, and then the compound tide with meteorological influences. For the calibration of the astronomical tides, sensitivity analysis has been carried out by adjusting the horizontal diffusion coefficient and the bottom friction coefficients used in the model. The sensitivity of the time-step size used in the model and model grids fitted to coastlines are also checked. A depth dependent Chézy numbers are used in the model to describe bottom friction. The model has a better result when the Chézy value varied within 65 to 85. Modifying grids fitted to the coastline has improved the model results significantly. By improving the dynamic phenomenon brought about by the land features, the model calculation fits the real tidal phenomenon better. The analysis has shown that the model is less sensitive to the horizontal diffusion coefficient. Data from 22 tidal stations around Taiwan have been used for the comparisons. The maximum RMSE (root-mean-square error) is about 10 cm at WAi-Pu, whereas the minimum RMSE is about 1 cm for the stations along eastern coast. The calibration of the compound tide is divided into three cases. The first case is to calibrate the forecasted wind field. This has been done by comparing the forecasted wind field from the Central Weather Bureau with the satellite data obtained from QuikSCAT¡XLevel 3. The satellite wind speed has been applied to adjust the forecasted wind speed. The adjusted forecast wind field has shown improvement to the model predictions in the tidal stations south of Taichung, slightly improved in the eastern coast. The second case is tuning the drag coefficient on sea surface used by the hydrodynamic model. Several empirical formulas to describe the sea surface drag have been tested. The model result has shown little influence using various drag formulations. The third case is to single the influences by the meteo-inputs, i.e. the wind field and the atmospheric pressure. The tidal level is more sensitive to the variation of the atmospheric pressure through out the tests carried out during typhoon periods. The model simulation for 2006 using the best selected parameters has shown that the model is consisted with good stability and accuracy for both stormy and calm weather conditions.

Les tempêtes tropicales sont l'un des principaux moteurs des niveaux d'eau extrêmes notamment à cause des forts vents, des pluies torrentielles et des fortes houles qui les accompagnent. L'océan Pacifique nord-ouest est l'endroit où ces tempêtes tropicales (appelées typhons dans cette zone) sont les plus violentes au monde dépassant souvent les 95 nœuds de vent (175 km/h). L'île de Taïwan subit chaque année 3 à 4 typhons qui la frappent directement et une vingtaine qui passent à proximité de l'île. La quantification des variations du niveau instantanée de l'eau reste encore aujourd'hui un sujet de recherches actif. En effet, l'identification des processus physiques qui peuvent devenir dominants sur le niveau en conditions paroxysmales est cruciale pour la gestion et la protection des zones côtières. Ce travail de thèse basé sur une approche numérique, permet de discuter les mécanismes hydrodynamiques régionaux fondamentaux à l’origine de l’élévation du niveau d’eau le long de la barrière sableuse de Wan-Tzu-Liao au sud-ouest de Taïwan. L'utilisation du modèle de circulation 3D SYMPHONIE et du modèle de vagues WAVEWATCH III permet d'étudier la saison de mousson 2011 et la saison des typhons 2012 sur une zone s’étendant à environ 600 km autour de l’île de Taïwan. Ces simulations intègrent convenablement la totalité des forçages météo-marins ayant un rôle sur la circulation et le niveau d’eau à la côte : vent, flux atmosphériques, circulation grande échelle, marée, pression atmosphérique, rivières et vagues. Le couplage entre les vagues et les courants est complet en 3D et les deux modèles partagent la même grille de calcul. Par ailleurs, dans le cadre du projet franco-taïwanais KUNSHEN, un ensemble d'appareils a été déployé entre octobre 2011 et novembre 2012 le long d’un profil cross-shore de la barrière sableuse. La simulation complète de niveau d’eau rend compte des surcotes générées par les typhons avec une erreur de l'ordre de 0.1 m. Pour étudier les mécanismes hydrodynamiques, un ensemble de simulations a été réalisé afin d'isoler les contributions. Leur analyse montre que le forçage dominant est celui de la marée astronomique (~1 m), suivi par la circulation régionale (0.5-0.7m) puis des conditions météorologiques (0.2-0.3 m). Dans cette zone à forte dissipation énergétique, la contribution des vagues est négligeable avec moins de 0.1 m d'élévation. La contribution des rivières est, elle aussi, faible (< 0.1 m). / Tropical storms are the main engine of extreme water levels due to strong winds, abundant rainfalls and strong waves attached to these events. The western North Pacific ocean is one of places where these tropical storms (called typhoon in this area) are the most violent in the world exceeding 95 knots of wind speed (175 km/h). The island of Taiwan is located on the most of typhoons tracks which come from the western North Pacific. Every year, three or four typhoons strike Taiwan directly and around twenty pass near it. The quantification of instantaneous water levels variations is still studied by active researches. The identification of physical processes that can become dominant on water level during extreme conditions is crucial for the management and the protection of coastal areas.These PhD works, based on a numerical approach, allow to discuss the fondamental regional hydrodynamic mechanisms which control the sea surface elevation along the sandy barrier of Wan-Tzu-Liao located south-western Taiwan.We used the 3D circulation model SYMPHONIE and the wave model WAVEWATCH III to study the mousson season 2011 and the typhoon season 2012 on an area extending 600 km off Taiwan island. These simulations deal with most of the oceanographical forcings playing a role in the sea surface elevation at the coast : winds, air/sea fluxes, astronomical tides, regional circulation, rivers and waves. The coupling between waves and currents is fully in 3D and the two models share the same computational grid. Moreover, in the framework of the KUNSHEN project, a raft of devices were set in front of the Wan-Tzu Liao barrier from october 2011 to november 2012 along a cross-shore section. The full simulation of water level describes the storm surges generated by typhoons with errors of 0.1 m. With the aim to analyse hydrodynamic mechanisms, we performed a set of mono-forcing simulation that isolate each meteo-marine parameter. Their analysis show that astronomical tide is the dominant forcing (~1 m) followed by the regional circulation (0.5-0.7m) and the meteorological conditions (0.2-0.3 m). This zone displays a very strong dissipative feature that conducts to a very low waves contribution on the sea surface elevation (< 0.1 m). They display also a low contribution of rivers around Taiwan (< 0.1 m).

Climate modeling and tropical cyclone forecasting are two significant is- sues that are continuously being improved upon for more accurate weather forecasting and preparedness. In this thesis, we have studied three climate models and formulated a new model with a view to determine the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) budget at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) as ob- served by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) satellite based Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR). In 2006, Karnauskas proposed the African meridional OLR as an Atlantic hur- ricane predictor, the relation was further proven in 2016 by Karnauskas and Li. Here we have considered a similar study for all other tropical cyclone basins.

由聯合國環境署和世界氣象組織在1988年成立之「跨政府氣候變遷小組」（Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change，IPCC）公佈之「2007氣候變遷報告」中指出，近五十年來觀察到之暖化現象極可能係由人類活動所導致。報告中引用最新科學研究資料指出，氣候變暖之趨勢正在加快，明顯可觀察到之現象包括：極端氣溫天氣之增多、全球海平面上升、一些地區乾旱加重、冰川融化、冰蓋萎縮等等。這種快速氣候變遷所帶來的衝擊，對於地球生態而言，是一種嚴峻的考驗。 台灣地處亞熱帶，且因所在地理位置，深受海洋與大氣交互作用之影響，再加上地形狹窄、河道短促等自然環境因素影響，使台灣成為颱風頻繁的地方；除了颱風本身外，颱風之累積雨量與單位時間內之降雨量又屢創新高，甚至出現了罕見之冬颱；其所附帶的豪雨，造成重大損失。 我國文獻對於颱風洪水險是否作為政策性保險之討論較少，故本論文希望能就颱風洪水險是否適合做為政策性保險加以探討。首先，從氣候風險管理之角度著手，收集現行國內外氣候變遷現況之資料，提出氣候巨災風險管理之方法。再介紹外國與我國現行之颱風洪水保險制度，並論述颱風洪水保險制度之設計原則與方式。接下來，介紹政策性保險，並針對颱風洪水保險可否為政策性保險為違憲審查。最後，針對颱風洪水險作為政策性保險之可行性進行研討，提出可行之方案，並與我國現行已存在之政策性保險相比較，討論我國現行颱風洪水保險之優缺點，再為制度之抉擇。之後，再討論相關問題，以作為我國以後是否發展強制或半強制颱風洪水險之參考。

災難事件發生時，災難資訊的分析和傳遞需具有即時性，才能讓資訊運用達到防災與救災的目的。網路基礎設施普及後，災難資訊的提供者加入廣大的網路公眾媒體，單獨透過搜尋引擎檢索無法即時的反應災難目前狀態；而像災難應變中心這類傳統頻道的災難通報管道有限，經常無法負荷突然爆發的資訊。這些因災難爆發的瞬間巨量資料，已無法完全使用人力蒐集、過濾與處理，需要發展新的工具能夠快速的自動化分類新媒體頻道資訊，提供救災防災體系應變或政府決策時參考。 本研究收集莫拉克颱風八八水災期間五個頻道資料，經過文字處理與專家分類後，由頻率分布、分類結構組成與詞彙共現網絡，觀察不同頻道資料集之性質的異同。在未考慮詞性與文法的狀況下，使用向量空間模型訓練OAO-SVM分類器模型，評估自動化分類方式的績效。 根據分析結果我們發現災難發生後，網路上的資訊隨著時序存在著階段性的期程，能夠由各個頻道瞭解災難的進程。透過詞彙共現網絡，瞭解救難專家書寫相較於俗民書寫使用的詞彙少重複且異質性較高。使用OAO-SVM訓練分類器結果，救難專家書寫的頻道分類績效優於俗民書寫。分類器交叉比較後，對於同性質頻道的內容具有較好的分類績效。透過合併相同屬性資料集訓練，我們發現當訓練資料的品質夠好時，分類器能夠有不錯的分類績效。品質不夠時，可以經由增加訓練資料的數量來提升分類的績效。本研究的歸納，以及所發展出來的分類方式與資訊探索技術，未來可以用於開發更有效率且精確的社群感知器。 / When disaster events occur, information diffusion and transmission need to be in real-time in order to exploit the information in disaster prevention and recovery. With the establishment of network infrastructure, mass media also joins the role of information providers of disaster events on the internet. However retrieved information through search engines often cannot reflect the status of a progressing disaster. Traditional channels such as disaster reaction centers also have difficulty handling the inpour of disaster information, and which is usually beyond the ability of human processing. Thus there is a need to develop new tools to quickly automate classification of information from new media, to provide reliable information to disaster reaction centers, and assist policy decision-making. In this study, we use the data during typhoon Morakot collected from five different channels. After word processing and content classification by experts, we observe the difference between these datasets by the frequency distribution, classification structures and word co-occurrence network. We use the vector space model to train the OAO-SVM classification model without considering speech and grammar, and evaluate the performance of automated classification. From the results, we found that the chronology of internet data can identify a number of stages throughout the progression of disasters, allowing us to oversee the development of the disaster through each channel. Through word relation in word co-occurrence network, experts use fewer repeating words and high heterogeneity than amateur writing channels. The training results of classifier from the OAO-SVM model indicate that channels maintained by experts perform better than amateur writing. The cross compare classifier has better performance for channels with the same properties. When we merge the same property channel dataset to train classifier, we found that when the training data quality is good enough, the classifier can have a good performance. If the data quality is not enough, you can increase amount of training data to improve classification performance. As a contribution of this research, we believe the techniques developed and results of the analysis can be used to design more efficient and accurate social sensors in the future.