Juraj Bodík Abstract This thesis is dealing with the following problem: Let us have two stationary time series with heavy- tailed marginal distributions. We want to detect whether they have a causal relation, i.e. if a change in one of them causes a change in the other. The question of distinguishing between causality and correlation is essential in many different science fields. Usual methods for causality detection are not well suited if the causal mechanisms only manifest themselves in extremes. In this thesis, we propose a new method that can help us in such a nontraditional case distinguish between correlation and causality. We define the so-called causal tail coefficient for time series, which, under some assumptions, correctly detects the asymmetrical causal relations between different time series. We will rigorously prove this claim, and we also propose a method on how to statistically estimate the causal tail coefficient from a finite number of data. The advantage is that this method works even if nonlinear relations and common ancestors are present. Moreover, we will mention how our method can help detect a time delay between the two time series. We will show how our method performs on some simulations. Finally, we will show on a real dataset how this method works, discussing a cause of...

Diarrhoe ist eines der häufigsten Probleme beim equinen Neonaten. Nahezu alle Fohlen entwickeln Durchfall innerhalb der ersten Lebenswochen. Unterschiedliche virale, bakterielle und parasitäre Ursachen werden diskutiert. In diesen Zeitraum fällt ebenfalls die erste Rosse der Stute, sodass der Durchfall um den 5. - 15. Lebenstag (LT) bei den Fohlen als „Fohlenrossedurchfall“ bezeichnet wird. Es wird vermutet, dass die Entwicklung der intestinalen Mikroflora und die Reifung der Darmschleimhaut im Wesentlichen für das Durchfallgeschehen verantwortlich sind. Bisher ist jedoch wenig bekannt über die Entwicklung der intestinalen Mikroflora bei Fohlen. Einige Probiotika sind als Darmflorastabilisatoren bei Tieren zugelassen. Studien belegten positive Effekte von Toyocerin® (B. cereus var. toyoi) auf die Darmgesundheit bei anderen Tierarten wie z.B. Kälbern, Ferkeln, Broilern, Puten und Mastkaninchen. Die vorliegende Arbeit sollte klären, ob die Supplementierung von B. cereus var. toyoi zu einer Stabilisierung der sich entwickelnden intestinalen Mikroflora und damit zu einer Verringerung der Durchfälle bei Fohlen führt. Die Untersuchung wurde an 25 Mutterstuten eines Vollblutgestüts und ihren Fohlen durchgeführt. Alle Fohlen wurden von Februar bis Mai 2011 geboren. Von Geburt an wurden die Fohlen randomisiert in drei Behandlungsgruppen eingeteilt: Placebo-Gruppe (10 ml isotone Kochsalzlösung, n=8), 50 mg Toyocerin-Gruppe (5 x 108 KbE B. cereus var. toyoi gelöst in 10 ml isotoner Kochsalzlösung, n=7) und 200 mg Toyocerin-Gruppe (2 x 109 KbE B. cereus var. toyoi gelöst in 10 ml isotoner Kochsalzlösung, n=10). Die Placebo- und Behandlungsgruppen wurden einmal täglich vom 1. – 58. LT supplementiert. Herz- und Atemfrequenz, Körperinnentemperatur und die Körpermasseentwicklung wurden nach einem standardisierten Protokoll erhoben. Kotproben konnten mit Hilfe von Kotsammelbeuteln oder durch rektale Entnahme innerhalb von 24 Stunden nach der Geburt sowie an LT 9, 16, 23, 30, 44, 58 und am ersten Durchfalltag gewonnen werden. Blutproben wurden aus der Vena jugularis externa am 1., 9., 16., 30., 58. LT sowie am ersten Durchfalltag entnommen. Die bakteriologische Untersuchung erfolgte mit Hilfe des Kulturverfahrens. Die Bestimmung der Gesamt-IgG-Werte wurde mit einem kompetitiven ELISA, die Bestimmung der spezifischen Antikörper IgG-anti-LPS von E. coli J5 und IgG-anti-PLC-von-C. perfringens-1a mit einem indirekten ELISA durchgeführt. 88 % der Fohlen entwickelten Durchfall (Placebo 7/8, 50 mg Toyocerin 5/7, 200 mg Toyocerin 10/10) mit einer hohen Inzidenz zwischen dem 8. und 16. LT. Das Allgemeinbefinden und die Bewegungs- und Sauglust blieben dabei unbeeinflusst. Zum Zeitpunkt des ersten Östrus der Stute zeigten 59 % der Fohlen Diarrhoe. Unter den 41 %, die keinen Durchfall zum Zeitpunkt der Fohlenrosse hatten, waren Fohlen, die nie Durchfall vom 1. – 58. LT zeigten, aber auch welche die Diarrhoe entwickelten, als die Mutterstute sich nicht in Rosse befand. Ein Zusammenhang zwischen der Fohlenrosse der Stute und Durchfall bei ihrem Fohlen konnte nicht hergestellt werden. Es zeigte sich eine Tendenz, dass hohe Spiegel der Gesamt-IgG (>20 mg/ml) und IgG-anti-LPS von E. coli J5 (>120 RE/ml) nach der Kolostrumaufnahme im Zusammenhang mit einer geringeren Anzahl von Durchfalltagen innerhalb der ersten zwei Lebensmonate standen. C. perfringens und Enterobakterien waren gleichermaßen nachweisbar bei Fohlen mit Durchfall als auch bei unauffälligen Fohlen. Aus der Supplementierung von B. cereus var. toyoi ergab sich kein Effekt auf die Kotflora der Fohlen, außer auf die Gesamtkeimzahlen (GKZ) der aeroben Bakterien. Bei den Aerobiern im Fohlenkot konnte ein signifikanter Behandlungseffekt (p=0,012) festgestellt werden. Im ersten Milchkot der Fohlen waren GKZ von 4,5 x 104 KbE/g (200 mg Toyocerin-Gruppe) bis 5,0 x 105 KbE/g (50 mg Toyocerin-Gruppe) bei den aeroben Bakterien und GKZ von 2,4 x 105 KbE/g (200 mg Toyocerin-Gruppe) bis 4,7 x 106 KbE/g (50 mg Toyocerin-Gruppe) median bei den Anaerobiern nachweisbar. Danach stieg der Gehalt der aeroben und anaeroben Bakterien weiter bis zum 3. LT und stagnierte bis zum 16. LT. Während dieser Stagnationsphase trat bei 92 % der Fohlen (23/25) eine Veränderung der Kotkonsistenz bis hin zu Durchfällen auf. Vom 16. bis zum 58. LT sanken die Gehalte moderat bei den Aerobiern median am 58. LT auf 2,7 x 105 KbE/g (Placebo-Gruppe) bis 2,2 x 106 KbE/g (50 mg Toyocerin-Gruppe) und bei den Anaerobiern median am 58. LT auf 3,8 x 105 KbE/g (Placebo-Gruppe) bis 2,9 x 106 KbE/g (200 mg Toyocerin-Gruppe). Bis zum 58. LT näherte sich der Medianwert der aeroben und anaeroben Bakterien im Kot der Placebo-Gruppe dem Wert der Mutterstuten (gemessen am ersten Tag nach der Geburt) an. Innerhalb der ersten Lebenstage war eine hohe aerobe sowie anaerobe Keimzahl im Kot der Fohlen nachzuweisen, die sich oberhalb der Keimzahlen befand, die im Kot der Mutterstuten zum Zeitpunkt der Geburt gemessen wurde. Im Rahmen der Entwicklung und Etablierung der bakteriellen intestinalen Mikroflora wurde das Fohlenrossedurchfallgeschehen bei den Fohlen beobachtet. B. cereus var. toyoi hatte dabei keinen Einfluss auf die Anzahl der Fohlen mit Durchfall und den Gesundheitsstatus der Fohlen. / Diarrhoea is probably one of the most common problems in equine neonates. Almost all foals develop transient diarrhoea within the first weeks of life. Different viral, bacterial and parasitic causes are discussed. Between the 5th and the 15th day of the foal’s life, when their dam’s first post partum (p.p.) oestrus is expected, diarrhoea in foals is observed quite often. That is why it’s called “foal heat diarrhoea”. In literature establishment of intestinal microflora and maturation of the intestinal mucosa is responsible for the occurrence of diarrhoea in this period of life. But little is known about the development of the intestinal microflora in foals. Many probiotics are authorised as gut flora stabilisers in animal nutrition. Some studies proved positive effects of Bacillus (B.) cereus var. toyoi (Toyocerin®) on intestinal health in other species e.g. calves, piglets, broiler chicken, poultry and growing rabbits. The present study deals with the question if a supplementation of B. cereus var. toyoi lead to a stabilisation of the developing intestinal microflora and therefore to a reduction of diarrhoea in foals. A total of 25 mares and foals of a thoroughbred stud were included into the study. Foals were born between February and May 2011. From birth, the foals were randomly assigned to three treatment groups: placebo group (10 ml isotonic saline solution, n=8), 50 mg Toyocerin group (5 x 108 cfu B. cereus var. toyoi solved in 10 ml isotonic saline solution, n=7) and 200 mg Toyocerin group (2 x 109 cfu B. cereus var. toyoi solved in 10 ml isotonic saline solution, n=10). Placebo- and treatment groups were orally supplemented once a day starting on the 1st through to the 58th day of life. Determination of heart and respiratory rate, body temperature, body weight was realised according to a standardised protocol. Within the first day of life, on day 9, 16, 23, 30, 44, 58 and on the first day of diarrhoea faecal samples has been taken from the rectum or by the use of a collection bag. Blood samples were taken via jugular venipuncture on day 1, 9, 16, 30, 58 and on the first day of diarrhoea. Culture-depend methods were used to analyse the bacterial microflora. Serum IgG was analysed by a competitive ELISA, IgG-anti-LPS from E. coli J5 and IgG-anti-PLC-from-C. perfringens-1a by an indirect ELISA. 88 % of the foals developed diarrhoea (placebo 7/8, 50 mg Toyocerin 5/7, 200 mg Toyocerin 10/10) with a high incidence between the 8th and the 16th day of the foal’s life. Meanwhile, foals remained bright and alert and continued to nurse. At the time point of the first p.p. oestrus in the mares, 59 % of their foals showed signs of diarrhoea. Within the remaining 41 % there are foals that had no diarrhoea but there are also foals which had diarrhoea when the mare had not been in heat. Neonatal diarrhoea in foals is not linked to p.p. oestrus in their mares. There was a tendency, that high serum-IgG (> 20 mg/ml) and IgG-anti-LPS from E. coli J5 (> 120 RE/ml) after colostrum uptake were associated with lower diarrhoea severity in the first 58 days of the foal’s life. C. perfringens and enterobacteria can be found equally in foals with diarrhoea and in foals which are not afflicted. B. cereus var. toyoi supplementation had no effect on faecal bacteria in foals, except on aerobic bacteria (p=0,012). In the first milk faeces aerobic bacteria were detected in median from 4,5 x 104 cfu/g (200 mg Toyocerin-group) to 5,0 x 105 cfu/g (50 mg Toyocerin-group) and anaerobic bacteria were detected in median from 2,4 x 105 cfu/g (200 mg Toyocerin-group) to 4,7 x 106 cfu/g (50 mg Toyocerin-group). Afterwards the counts increased towards the 3rd day of life and stayed on a high level till the 16th day of life. During this stagnation in 92 % of the foals a change in faecal consistency and diarrhoea was observed. Afterwards, from the 16th though to the 58th day of life, the bacteria counts in the faeces moderately decreased in median for the aerobic bacteria on the 58th day of life down to 3,8 x 105 cfu/g (placebo-group) till 2,9 x 106 cfu/g (200 mg Toyocerin-group). On the 58th day of life the counts of aerobic and anaerobic bacteria in the faeces of the placebo-group approached the counts in the faeces of the mare (measured at the time point of birth). In the first days of foals’ life detection of aerobic and anaerobic bacteria in the faeces were high, and above the level of the bacteria counts in the faeces of the mare at the time point of birth. Foal heat diarrhoea is observed as a part of the development and establishment of bacterial intestinal microflora. B. cereus var. toyoi had no effect on the percentage of foals with diarrhoea and health status in the foals at that point.

This paper builds on the study Prices on the Second-hand Market for Swedish Family Housesconducted by Lennart Berg, economist and associate professor emeritus from UppsalaUniversity in 2002. This study attempts to identify inter-and intraregional pricedependencies in Sweden for the second hand market for family houses. The house priceindices used in this econometric analysis commences in 1990:1 and ends in 2018:4 for allregions in accordance to NUTS 2 in Sweden.This thesis models the change of the regional prices for one-and two family houses indicatingthat the metropolitan area of Stockholm contributes predominantly to all other regionsthroughout the country. In addition, the capital city also shows cointegrated relationshipswith all regions although not the contrary. Shocks to the housing market of Stockholmindicate that Gothenburg, the Western region and Malmö are affected contemporaneouslyfollowed by the other regions nationwide with a certain time lag leading to say that thecontribution and influence of the capital city´s house price development leads the pricedevelopment throughout the country, Sweden. / Detta examensarbete ligger till grund av den tidigare studien Prices on the Second-handMarket for Swedish Family Houses av Lennart Berg, nationalekonom och professor emerituspå Uppsala Universitet, 2002. Denna studie har som mål att finna de inter-och intraregionala pris förhållanden i Sverige på den inhemska andrahandsmarknaden för en-och tvåfamiljhus. Med hjälp av ekonometriska analyser har fastighetsprisindex använts i rapportenmellan år 1990:1 till 2018:4 för samtliga regioner i landet enligt indelning av NUTS 2.Denna uppsats skattar de regionala prisförändringar för en-och två familjehus därindikationer tyder på att Stockholms län verkar vara prisledande i relation till alla andraregioner och storstadsområden i Sverige. Därutöver, visar det sig att huvudstaden harkointegrerande samband med resten av landets regioner dock ej tvärtom. Simuleradeekonomiska chocker på Stockholms län visar att att Stor-Göteborg, Västsverige och Stor-Malmö är påverkade samtidigt med hänsyn till tid följd av de resterande regionerna med ettvisst lag. Detta kan tyda på att Stockholms regionala utveckling samt prispåverkan lederprisutvecklingen i landet.

[pt] O trabalho conduz uma análise empírica sobre como a credibilidade da política monetária influencia as reações da atividade econômica e da inflação a um aumento da taxa de juros. Como parte da metodologia, um índice de credibilidade foi construído a partir do desvio da expectativa de inflação com relação à meta para o período. Esse índice foi empregado em um modelo T-VAR junto a séries de hiato do produto, núcleo da inflação, taxa de câmbio e taxa de juros para gerar funções resposta ao impulso generalizadas através das quais foi possível comparar a dinâmica entre os regimes com credibilidade e sem credibilidade. As principais conclusões foram que a presença de credibilidade reduz o custo do aumento aos juros e intensifica a redução da inflação a um aumento da taxa de juros. / [en] The work conducts an empirical assessment on how monetary policy credibility influences the reaction of output and inflation to an increase in interest rate. As part of the methodology, a credibility index was built based on the deviation of the expected inflation from its target for a given period. This index was employed in a T-VAR model – also containing series of output gap, inflation core, exchange rate and interest rate – in order to generate generalized impulse response functions through which the dynamics of the with- and without- credibility regimes could be compared. The main conclusions were that the presence of credibility lowers the cost of raising interest rates and strengthens the inflation reduction in response to an interest rate increase.

In this paper we propose a time-varying parameter VAR model for the housing market in the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan and the Euro Area. For these four economies, we answer the following research questions: (i) How can we evaluate the stance of monetary policy when the policy rate hits the zero lower bound? (ii) Can developments in the housing market still be explained by policy measures adopted by central banks? (iii) Did central banks succeed in mitigating the detrimental impact of the financial crisis on selected housing variables? We analyze the relationship between unconventional monetary policy and the housing markets by using the shadow interest rate estimated by Krippner (2013b). Our findings suggest that the monetary policy transmission mechanism to the housing market has not changed with the implementation of quantitative easing or forward guidance, and central banks can affect the composition of an investors portfolio through investment in housing. A counterfactual exercise provides some evidence that unconventional monetary policy has been particularly successful in dampening the consequences of the financial crisis on housing markets in the United States, while the effects are more muted in the other countries considered in this study. (authors' abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

Abstract:   The last decade currency carry trade has gained a lot of popularity because of their apparent profitability. It is a strategy that has been developed to exploit violations of the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity. In particular, an investor must take a short position in a low-yielding currency to fund a long position in a high-yielding currency. In this research, we tried to contribute in the previous literature for the currency carry trade and its characteristics by using a different approach. Most of the researches that have been conducted in this area concern the risk agents associated with this strategy. However, in our research we investigated the relationship between currency carry trade and two equity indexes, one from the European market (DAX) and one from the American (DJIA). In order to do that, we estimated the returns of the DAX and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) as well as the returns of a carry trade index created by the Deutsche Bank, the Deutsche Bank’s G10 Currency Future Harvest index. The returns were estimated for a time period of twenty years (1995-2014). More specific, we examined whether there is granger causality between the returns of carry trade and of DAX/DJIA, whether there is leverage effect on the returns of the same index and finally whether changes in the returns of one of those indexes can affect the subsequent volatility of the other two. For being able to do this examination, we used two different statistical models, the Vector Autoregression (VAR) and the EGARCH [1, 1] model.       The first empirical finding suggests that there is granger causal effect from the two equity markets to carry trade, however the carry trade granger cause only to DJIA index. The second finding indicates that there no leverage effect form the past returns to the future volatility for all the three indexes. Finally, the last finding suggests that the volatility process on the returns of one index cannot be determined by changes in the returns of the other two indexes. Keywords: Currency carry, uncovered interest rate parity, DAX, DJIA, G10 currency, granger causality, VAR, EGARCH[1,1]

A volatile real exchange rate and high unemployment rate is a growing concern in South Africa, therefore the right macroeconomic policy is required. The challenge is to find stability in the real exchange rate paired with a low inflation rate, both of which are necessary to promote long term economic growth, which in turn creates more job opportunities. This study analyses the impact of the exchange rate on unemployment in South Africa by considering quarterly data for the period 2003 to 2013. In this study, the macroeconomic transmission channel is divided into two transmission paths, imports and exports. These find their roots in the Phillips curve and the Keynesian theory on unemployment respectively. The vector error correction model (VECM), together with an analysis of the impulse response functions and variance decompositions, are implemented to determine the short and long run impacts of the exchange rate on unemployment. After the completion of a variety of specifications, estimations and tests, both macroeconomic transmission paths revealed in the empirical analysis that the real exchange rate has a significant impact on unemployment. In the imports transmission path, the real exchange rate, imports and the CPI have significant long term relationships with unemployment. Furthermore, the exports transmission path found significant short term relations with unemployment in considering the real exchange rate, exports and economic growth. The impulse responses in both transmission paths indicated that a shock in the exchange rate will have a significant effect on unemployment in the short run. Similar results were found with the variance decomposition. In the import transmission path, movements in the real exchange rate explained an increasing portion of the variance in unemployment. Alternatively, in the export transmission path the real exchange rate and exports explained an increasing portion of the variance. The evidence therefore suggests that South Africa should focus more on stabilising the exchange rate, since fluctuations in unemployment are a result of shocks in the real exchange rate, following the macroeconomic transmission channels discussed. / MCom (Economics)--North-West University, Vaal Triangle Campus, 2015

South Africa has become more dependent on portfolio inflow to finance investment and consumption due to the low rate of government and household savings. Therefore, it is important from South Africa‟s perspective to maintain a stable portfolio inflow in order to ensure that the current account deficit does not reach unsustainable levels. However, portfolio inflow is anything but stable in South Africa. The risk associated with this is that when foreigners‟ expectations of South Africa shift, due to any form of instability or risk within the country or even internationally, it leads to massive withdrawals or outflow of funds, which in turn causes the currency to depreciate. The portfolio balance theory on the other hand states that an increase in portfolio inflow leads to the appreciation of the nominal exchange rate, and that this is perceived to work against economic growth. The main objective of this research is to determine the nature of the relationship between exchange rate volatility and portfolio flows, and the extent to which volatility in the exchange rate affect South Africa‟s portfolio inflow. The research uses Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models and quarterly data, ranging from 1995 to 2012 to investigate this relationship. From the VAR models a Granger causality test, as well impulse response functions is used to shed light on the influence of a one-unit shock in both foreign portfolio inflow and exchange rate volatility on the other variables in the model. Exchange rate volatility is measured using both Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) family models and the conventional standard deviation, in order to control for possible biasness caused by the choice of instrument of volatility. The results showed the nature of the relationship between exchange rate volatility and foreign portfolio inflow to South Africa‟s capital markets can be described as country-dependent and time-varying. South Africa‟s portfolio inflow exhibits high volatility and low persistence that are characteristics normally associated with “hot money”, which is largely driven by foreign investors‟ appetite for short-term speculative gains. The study identified the consistent presence of bidirectional causality between the exchange rate volatility and foreign portfolio inflow to South Africa, irrespective of the measurement of exchange rate volatility. The results also revealed that net portfolio flows are associated with exchange rate appreciation and that foreign portfolio inflow react much stronger to changes in exchange rate volatility than vice versa. / MCom (Risk Management), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2015

South Africa has become more dependent on portfolio inflow to finance investment and consumption due to the low rate of government and household savings. Therefore, it is important from South Africa‟s perspective to maintain a stable portfolio inflow in order to ensure that the current account deficit does not reach unsustainable levels. However, portfolio inflow is anything but stable in South Africa. The risk associated with this is that when foreigners‟ expectations of South Africa shift, due to any form of instability or risk within the country or even internationally, it leads to massive withdrawals or outflow of funds, which in turn causes the currency to depreciate. The portfolio balance theory on the other hand states that an increase in portfolio inflow leads to the appreciation of the nominal exchange rate, and that this is perceived to work against economic growth. The main objective of this research is to determine the nature of the relationship between exchange rate volatility and portfolio flows, and the extent to which volatility in the exchange rate affect South Africa‟s portfolio inflow. The research uses Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models and quarterly data, ranging from 1995 to 2012 to investigate this relationship. From the VAR models a Granger causality test, as well impulse response functions is used to shed light on the influence of a one-unit shock in both foreign portfolio inflow and exchange rate volatility on the other variables in the model. Exchange rate volatility is measured using both Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) family models and the conventional standard deviation, in order to control for possible biasness caused by the choice of instrument of volatility. The results showed the nature of the relationship between exchange rate volatility and foreign portfolio inflow to South Africa‟s capital markets can be described as country-dependent and time-varying. South Africa‟s portfolio inflow exhibits high volatility and low persistence that are characteristics normally associated with “hot money”, which is largely driven by foreign investors‟ appetite for short-term speculative gains. The study identified the consistent presence of bidirectional causality between the exchange rate volatility and foreign portfolio inflow to South Africa, irrespective of the measurement of exchange rate volatility. The results also revealed that net portfolio flows are associated with exchange rate appreciation and that foreign portfolio inflow react much stronger to changes in exchange rate volatility than vice versa. / MCom (Risk Management), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2015

A volatile real exchange rate and high unemployment rate is a growing concern in South Africa, therefore the right macroeconomic policy is required. The challenge is to find stability in the real exchange rate paired with a low inflation rate, both of which are necessary to promote long term economic growth, which in turn creates more job opportunities. This study analyses the impact of the exchange rate on unemployment in South Africa by considering quarterly data for the period 2003 to 2013. In this study, the macroeconomic transmission channel is divided into two transmission paths, imports and exports. These find their roots in the Phillips curve and the Keynesian theory on unemployment respectively. The vector error correction model (VECM), together with an analysis of the impulse response functions and variance decompositions, are implemented to determine the short and long run impacts of the exchange rate on unemployment. After the completion of a variety of specifications, estimations and tests, both macroeconomic transmission paths revealed in the empirical analysis that the real exchange rate has a significant impact on unemployment. In the imports transmission path, the real exchange rate, imports and the CPI have significant long term relationships with unemployment. Furthermore, the exports transmission path found significant short term relations with unemployment in considering the real exchange rate, exports and economic growth. The impulse responses in both transmission paths indicated that a shock in the exchange rate will have a significant effect on unemployment in the short run. Similar results were found with the variance decomposition. In the import transmission path, movements in the real exchange rate explained an increasing portion of the variance in unemployment. Alternatively, in the export transmission path the real exchange rate and exports explained an increasing portion of the variance. The evidence therefore suggests that South Africa should focus more on stabilising the exchange rate, since fluctuations in unemployment are a result of shocks in the real exchange rate, following the macroeconomic transmission channels discussed. / MCom (Economics)--North-West University, Vaal Triangle Campus, 2015