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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
331

Otimização das condições de cultivo de 'Rhizopus microsporus' var. 'rhizopodiformis' para a produção, isolamento e identificação de metabólitos com atividade antimicrobiana / Otimization of the conditions of cultivation of Rhizopus microsporus var. rhizopodiformis for the production, isolation and identification of metabólites with antimicrobial activity

Ana Silvia Ciscato Camillo 12 April 2007 (has links)
O fungo Rhizopus microsporus var. rhizopodiformis foi submetido a determinadas condições de cultivo, objetivando produzir substâncias com atividade antimicrobiana. O microorganismo foi transferido da sílica, na qual foi armazenado, e incubado por sete dias em meio aveia-ágar para o crescimento prévio. Em seguida, 4 x 106 esporos/mL de meio foram transferidos para o meio pré-fermentativo e incubado por 24 horas, seguido de transferência para meio fermentativo (meio Czapek, meio Jackson e meio Vogel) e incubado por períodos de tempo determinados. Além disso, foi incubado em meio fermentativo de arroz por 20 dias. Após a fermentação nos diferentes meios, o caldo da cultura foi obtido por filtração e submetido a partições utilizando-se solventes orgânicos: acetato de etila e n-butanol, os quais foram recuperados por evaporação a vácuo. Os extratos obtidos dessas partições foram submetidos aos testes de bioautografia para determinação das frações ostentando atividade antimicrobiana. Os extratos em acetato de etila dos quatro meios fermentativos apresentam tal atividade. As frações ativas foram submetidas a diferentes modalidades cromatográficas para isolamento das substâncias, como a cromatografia liquida em coluna de sílica e a Cromatografia Liquida de Alta Eficiência. Foram isolados quatro metabólitos secundários a partir das frações obtidas em acetato de etila dos meio liquido Jackson e do meio sólido de arroz. Foram identificadas duas dicetopiperazinas (ciclos Leu-Pro e Leu-4-OH-Pro) e um derivado aromático contendo nitrogênio na porção alifática da molécula. Foram determinadas as concentrações inibitórias mínimas (CIM) das substâncias isoladas contra os seguintes microorganismos: Kocuria rhizophila (ATCC 9341), Staphylococcus aureus (ATCC 25923) Candida albicans (ATCC 10231), Escherichia coli (ATCC 25922) e Pseudomonas aeruginosa (ATCC 27853). Todos os extratos obtidos dos meios de cultura apresentaram atividade contra S. aureus e K. rhizophila, bem como o extrato metanólico dos micélios. Apenas os extratos em n-butanol não foram ativos. Nos ensaios de microdiluição, as três ix substâncias identificadas apresentaram CIMs entre 400 e 350 μg/mL. Os resultados obtidos indicam que o fungo em questão é uma fonte interessante para obtenção de metabólitos secundários. / The fungus Rhizopus microsporus var. rhizopodiformis was cultivated in different fermentative media aiming to produce secondary metabolites bearing antimicrobial activity. The conidia storage in silica gel was incubated in oat medium for conidia production. After seven days the conidia (4 x 106 conidia/mL) was transferred to a pre-fermentative medium and incubated for 24 h for mycelium production. After that, it was transferred to three fermentative media: Czapek, Jackson and Vogel, and incubated for different periods of time. After fermentation, cultures were filtered and the broth was submitted to partition using ethyl acetate and n-buthanol in sequence, which were, afterwards, recovered under vacuum. The obtained crude extracts were evaluated under bioautography assay aiming to select the most adequate medium for secondary antimicrobial metabolite production. The ethyl acetate extracts obtained from both Jackson and rice media displayed the higher activities. Therefore, they were submitted to different chromatographic means, including silica gel column and HPLC, furnishing four isolated compounds, from which three were identified: two diketopiperazines (cyclos Leu-Pro and Leu-4-OH-Pro) and one aromatic compound containing a nitrogen in the aliphatic moiety. The pure isolated compounds were submitted to microdilution tests against the following bacteria: Kocuria rhizophila (ATCC 9341), Staphylococcus aureus (ATCC 25923) Candida albicans (ATCC 10231), Escherichia coli (ATCC 25922) e a Pseudomonas aeruginosa (ATCC 27853), aiming to determine their Minimum Inhibitory Concentrations (MIC). All the ethyl acetate extracts displayed antimicrobial activity in the bioautography assays against S. aureus and K. rhizophila, as well as the mycelia methanol extracts. Only the n-butanol extracts did not display activity. Regarding the microdilution assay, three of evaluated pure compounds displayed MIC values between 400 and 350 μg/mL. The obtained results indicated that the studied fungus is an interesting source for biologically active secondary metabolites production.
332

Mobilidade de capital no Brasil no período de 1970-2007: análise pela abordagem intertemporal da conta corrente

Silva, Júlia Goes da 19 December 2012 (has links)
Submitted by Renata Lopes (renatasil82@gmail.com) on 2016-06-23T19:43:06Z No. of bitstreams: 1 juliagoesdasilva.pdf: 980905 bytes, checksum: df0e8068aa03e5a954830f862e4dc02a (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Adriana Oliveira (adriana.oliveira@ufjf.edu.br) on 2016-07-13T15:41:31Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 juliagoesdasilva.pdf: 980905 bytes, checksum: df0e8068aa03e5a954830f862e4dc02a (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-07-13T15:41:31Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 juliagoesdasilva.pdf: 980905 bytes, checksum: df0e8068aa03e5a954830f862e4dc02a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-12-19 / A discussão teórica em torno da mobilidade do capital pode ser divida em dois pontos de referência: um conduzido pela mensuração da relação entre poupança e investimento domésticos, conforme Feldstein e Horioka (1980); o outro pela análise das variâncias da conta corrente teórica e observada, como propõe Ghosh (1995). Ambos trouxeram importantes contribuições para testar suposições sobre o fluxo de capital entre nações, entretanto, o presente trabalho segue a linha de Ghosh (1995), se preocupando com a análise da conta corrente sob as hipóteses de equilíbrio intertemporal, limitando-se ao caso brasileiro no período de 1970 a 2007. Com o fim de encontrar evidências sobre o grau de mobilidade internacional do capital para o país, e sobre o comportamento suavizador da conta corrente, seguiu-se em boa medida a metodologia utilizada em Huang (2010), que levanta a hipótese da importância de incluir as variáveis taxa real de juros mundial e termos de troca no modelo básico de Ghosh (1995). Utilizando o método de Variável Instrumental, não foi possível estabelecer o grau de mobilidade de capital para o Brasil entre 1970-2007, pois o parâmetro que capta a relação entre produto líquido e conta corrente mostrou-se estatisticamente não diferente de zero. Todavia, a inclusão dos termos de troca e da taxa de juros ao modelo, resultou em melhor ajustamento das estimativas, confirmando a importância dessas para explicar os movimentos da conta corrente. Os resultados obtidos pelo VAR mostraram que a série gerada para a conta corrente teórica não se ajusta à observada. Entretanto, os resultados reafirmam a importância de incluir aquelas variáveis, e conduzem à constatação de excesso de mobilidade do capital entre 1970-2007. Mas, quando se observa a série teórica em subperíodos, de 1970-1989, de 1990-2007 e de 1994-2007, verifica-se que, para o modelo expandido (que inclui as variáveis propostas),o excesso de mobilidade não ocorre após 1994. / The theoretical debate on capital mobility can be divided into two strands in the literature: one based on measuring the saving-investment correlation following Feldstein and Horioka (1980) seminal paper; the other one comparing the variance of the theoretical current account derived from an intertemporal equilibrium model with its actual counterpart, as proposed by Ghosh (1995). In the present work it is analyzed the Brazilian case from 1970 to 2007 following the line of Ghosh (1995) who focuses on the analysis of the current account under the hypothesis of intertemporal equilibrium. In order to find evidence of the degree of international capital mobility, and of the behavior of smoothing current account, it is followed largely the model developed in Huang (2010) who investigated the importance of including world real interest rate and terms of trade in the basic model of Ghosh (1995). Using the method of Instrumental Variable as proposed in Huang (2010) the degree of capital mobility for Brazil between 1970 and 2007 could not be correctly evaluated because the key parameter that measures the degree of capital mobility was not statistically different from zero in all models estimated. However, it is found that the inclusion of terms of trade and interest rate in the estimated models improve the model fit to the actual current account, confirming the importance of these variables to explain its movements. Comparing the variances it is found that the generated theoretical current account does not match the volatility of the observed one leading to the finding of “excess mobility” as defined in Ghosh (1995) in the whole sample. Nevertheless, when we divide the theoretical series in three periods, namely, 1970-1989, 1990-2007 and 1994-2007, a different result emerges for the complete model (comprising all the variables proposed) with the “excess mobility” no longer holding after 1994.
333

Desempenho de plantas de canola originadas de sementes microbiolizadas com bactérias promotoras de crescimento / Performance of canola plants originated from seeds microbiolized with growth-promoting bacteria

Perboni, Anelise Tessari 10 January 2014 (has links)
Made available in DSpace on 2014-08-20T13:59:07Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 tese_anelise_tessari_perboni.pdf: 3320042 bytes, checksum: 7a6c067308b205a4410c66d4f92e4b7c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-01-10 / The work aimed to evaluate the photosynthetic traits, growth and production of canola plants originated from seeds microbiolized with growth-promoting bacteria. Sequential tests were developed using different isolates of growth-promoting bacteria in association with canola hybrids. In the first test, 96 isolates were used for the mass selection of growth-promoting bacteria. JIP test parameters obtained from the chlorophyll fluorescence, leaf area and shoot dry weight of the Hyola 433 hybrid were evaluated at 55 days after sowing (DAS). The second test was conducted in two stages with isolates selected in the test I: in the stage I, chlorophyll fluorescence, gas exchange and shoot dry weight of Hyola 433 hybrid were evaluated through three measurements in different periods of the crop cycle; in the stage II, the seedlings emerged, chlorophyll fluorescence, leaf area, leaves, petioles and stems dry weight in plants of the Hyola 61 hybrid were evaluated at 41 DAS. In the third test, the isolated DFs 104, DFs 320, DFs 513 and DFs 628 were used, selected in previous experiments; the seedling emergence, performance indexes, leaf area, dry matter partitioning and chlorophyll index were evaluated during the plants growth. At the end of the experiment, the yield components per plant and grain composition of fatty acids were determined. The correlation between the JIP test parameters and growth variables allowed the determination of interest parameters (F0/FM, FV/F0, ABS/RC, TR0/RC, φPo, PIabs and PItotal) for selection of isolates with potential to promote plant growth. Generally, the JIP test parameters were able to detect changes in the operation of the electron transport chain in plants of different treatments; however the responses were highly variable in each test. Some isolates caused an increase of the growth parameters especially DFs 320, DFs 513 and DFs 628 which also showed trends of increase of yield components. In addition, these isolates did not change the fatty acid composition of canola grains, i.e., the seed microbiolization can promote plant growth without causing changes in the quality of oil obtained. We conclude that chlorophyll fluorescence can be used in the evaluation of photosynthetic responses of plants from seeds microbiolized with bacterial isolates. The seeds microbiolization with bacterial isolates DFs 320 [unidentified], DFs 513 [Pseudomonas veronii] and DFs 628 [Bacillus sp.] promotes increase of Hyola 61 hybrid canola plants growth. / O trabalho teve como objetivo avaliar as características fotossintéticas, o crescimento e a produção de plantas de canola originadas de sementes microbiolizadas com bactérias promotoras de crescimento. Foram desenvolvidos ensaios sequenciais utilizando diferentes isolados de bactérias promotoras de crescimento em associação com híbridos de canola. No primeiro ensaio foram utilizados 96 isolados para a seleção massal de bactérias promotoras de crescimento. Foram avaliados os parâmetros do Teste JIP obtidos a partir da fluorescência da clorofila, a área foliar e a massa seca da parte aérea de plantas do híbrido Hyola 433 aos 55 dias após a semeadura (DAS). O segundo ensaio foi desenvolvido em duas etapas com isolados selecionados no ensaio I: na etapa I avaliaram-se a fluorescência da clorofila, trocas gasosas e a massa seca da parte aérea das plantas do híbrido Hyola 433 por meio de três medições em diferentes períodos do ciclo da cultura; na etapa II procedeu-se a contagem das plântulas emergidas, avaliação da fluorescência da clorofila, área foliar, massa seca das folhas e dos pecíolos e caules nas plantas do híbrido Hyola 61 aos 41 DAS. No terceiro ensaio foram utilizados os isolados DFs 104, DFs 320, DFs 513 e DFs 628, selecionados nos experimentos anteriores; avaliou-se a emergência de plântulas, os índices de performance, a área foliar, a partição de massa seca e o índice de clorofila durante o crescimento das plantas. Ao final do experimento foram determinados os componentes de produção por planta e a composição de ácidos graxos dos grãos. A correlação entre os parâmetros do Teste JIP e as variáveis de crescimento permitiu a determinação de parâmetros de interesse (F0/FM, FV/F0, ABS/RC, TR0/RC, φPo, PIabs e PItotal) para seleção de isolados com potencial para promoção de crescimento das plantas. De forma geral, os parâmetros do Teste JIP foram capazes de detectar modificações no funcionamento da cadeia de transporte de elétrons nas plantas dos diferentes tratamentos, contudo as respostas apresentaram-se bastante variáveis em cada ensaio. Alguns isolados promoveram aumento dos parâmetros de crescimento destacando-se DFs 320, DFs 513 e DFs 628, os quais também apresentaram tendências de incremento dos componentes de produção. Além disso, estes isolados não modificaram a composição de ácidos graxos dos grãos de canola, ou seja, a microbiolização das sementes pode promover o crescimento das plantas sem provocar alterações na qualidade do óleo obtido. Conclui-se que a fluorescência da clorofila a pode ser utilizada nas avaliações das respostas fotossintéticas das plantas provenientes de sementes microbiolizadas com isolados bacterianos. A microbiolização das sementes com os isolados bacterianos DFs 320 [não identificado], DFs 513 [Pseudomonas veronii] e DFs 628 [Bacilus sp.] promove aumento do crescimento das plantas de canola do híbrido Hyola 61.
334

Estimation de la volatilité des données financières à haute fréquence : une approche par le Modèle Score-GARCH / Estimate the volatility of high frequency financial data approach by the GARCH-Model Score.

Mahamat, Hisseine Saad 24 November 2017 (has links)
Cette thèse a pour objectif principal d’estimer la volatilité des données financières à haute fréquence par le modèle Score-GARCH, dans le contexte de la crise financière récente (2007-2008). La contribution effective de notre thèse couvre trois axes majeurs. Premièrement, nous avons mis en évidence les faits stylisés observés empiriquement dans les données financières à haute fréquence, dans le cas de quatre actifs financiers de CAC40. Cette étude nous a permis d’analyser la dynamique et l’asymétrie des rendements des actifs financiers à haute fréquence. Deuxièmement, compte tenu des faits stylisés en relation avec le comportement de la volatilité, nous avons modélisé la volatilité des actifs financiers à haute fréquence par le modèle Score-GARCH, et nous l’avons comparé avec le modèles GARCH asymétriques classiques (modèles de référence). Le troisième axe propose des mesures du risque (VaR) de marché intra-journalier dans le contexte particulier des données à haute fréquence régulièrement espacées dans le temps (toutes les cinq minutes). / The main objective of this thesis is to estimate the volatility of high-frequency financial data by the Score-GARCH model in the context of the recent financial crisis (2007-2008). The actual contribution of our thesis covers three major axes. First, we have highlighted the stylized facts observed empirically in high-frequency financial data, in the case of four CAC40 financial assets. This study allowed us to analyze the dynamics and asymmetry of the returns of high-frequency financial assets. Second, given the stylized facts in relation to the behavior of volatility, we have modeled the volatility of high-frequency financial assets by the Score-GARCH model, and compared it with the classic asymmetric GARCH models (reference models ). The third axis proposes intraday market risk measures (VaR) in the particular context of high frequency data regularly spaced over time (every five minutes).
335

Proposition d'un modèle de prévision spatio-temporel à court terme de l'ensoleillement global, à partir de trois sites en Guadeloupe / Proposal of a spatio-temporal forecasting model at short time for global solar radiattion from three sites in Guadeloupe

Andre, Maina 28 October 2015 (has links)
En Guadeloupe, actuellement, 5,92% de la demande en énergie électrique sont couverts par la filière photovoltaïque et 3,14% par la filière éolienne soit 9,06% pour leur production cumulée selon le bilan 2015 de l’OREC (Observatoire Régional de l’Energie et du Climat). Selon le plan énergétique régional de prospection, la production cumulée du photovoltaïque et de l’éolien devrait représenter 14% du mix électrique en 2020 et 18% en 2030. Pour atteindre les 14% du mix électrique d’ici les cinq prochaines années, il va donc falloir entre autres, améliorer la prédictibilité pour un développement à un rythme soutenu de ces énergies. Ces travaux de recherches ont consisté à apporter de nouveaux résultats de performance de prévision de l’ensoleillement global à court terme et à donner une connaissance plus fine de la ressource sur trois stations en Guadeloupe. L’étude est basée sur une analyse et un modèle de prévision de l’ensoleillement, faisant intervenir des paramètres spatiaux et temporels. La littérature montre qu’un important nombre de sites est en général utilisé pour une analyse spatio-temporelle, ce qui impliquerait pour nous, de poser de multiples capteurs sur l’ensemble du territoire. Les coûts d’un tel système seraient considérables. Notre approche ici consistera à effectuer une analyse spatio-temporelle sur trois stations. Avec peu de stations et des distances non uniformes nous avons donc cherché à développer un modèle de prévision de l’ensoleillement à court terme en dépit de ces contraintes qui ne répondent pas à une approche classique. Le modèle est basé sur une méthodologie VAR (Vecteur Autorégressif) incluant des paramètres spatiaux et temporels. Une stratégie de sélection des variables est développée afin de sélectionner les prédicteurs (stations) utiles pour la prévision sur une localisation. Cette stratégie itérative permettra d’une part d’être plus proche de la réalité, d’autre part d’un point de vue algorithmique, la tendance des calculs sera plus rapide. En amont du développement du modèle, une étude de la variabilité spatio-temporelle de l’ensoleillement a permis de quantifier et caractériser de manière fine, les interactions dynamiques entre ces trois stations. Par comparaison avec les modèles de la littérature, notre modèle de prévision montre une bonne performance avec des valeurs de RMSE relative allant de 17,48% à 23,79% pour des horizons de prévisions de 5 min à 1h. Les méthodologies développées pourraient à terme offrir une opportunité d’assurer des garanties au gestionnaire du réseau. Si d'avenir des solutions de prévision performantes se généralisaient, cette opportunité permettrait d’ouvrir le marché au-delà du seuil de 30% imposé actuellement. / Currently in Guadeloupe, there is 5,92 % of the electric power request covered by the photovoltaic sector and 3,14 % by the wind sector which represents 9,06 % for their accumulated production, according to the OREC report (Regional Monitoring center of Energy and Climate). According to the regional energy plan, the accumulated production of the photovoltaic and the wind energy should represent 14 % of the electric mix in 2020 and 18 % in 2030. To reach the 14 % of the electric mix within the next five years, we need, among other things, to improve forecast for a sustained development of these energies. These research works consisted in bringing new performance results of short-term forecast of the global solar radiation and in giving a finer knowledge of the resource onto three stations in Guadeloupe. The study is based on an analysis and a forecast model of global solar radiation, by including spatial and temporal parameters. The literature shows that an important number of sites is generally used for a spatio-temporal analysis, which would imply for us, to put multiple sensors on the whole territory. The costs of such a system would be considerable. Our approach here will consist in making a spatiotemporal analysis on three stations. With few stations and not uniform distances, we, thus, tried to define a short-term forecast model of global solar radiation, in spite of these constraints which do not answer to a classic approach. The model is based on a methodology the VAR ( Autoregressive Vector) including spatial and temporal parameters. A strategy of selection of variables is developed to select useful predictors (stations) for the forecast on localization. This iterative strategy, on one hand will allow being closer to the reality, on the other hand to the point of algorithmic view, the trend of the calculations will be faster. Preliminarily, a study of the spatiotemporal variability of global solar radiation, allowed to quantify and to characterize in a fine way, the dynamic interactions between these three stations. Compared with the models of the literature, our forecast model shows a good performance with relative RMSE values going from 17.48 % to 23.79 % for horizons from 5 min to 1 hour. The developed methodologies could eventually offer an opportunity to assure guarantees to the network manager. If in the future the successful solutions of forecast became widespread, this opportunity would allow the opening of the market beyond the 30 % threshold imposed at present.
336

The yield and essential oil content of mint (<em>Mentha ssp.</em>) in Northern Ostrobothnia

Aflatuni, A. (Abbas) 31 May 2005 (has links)
Abstract Peppermint (Mentha x piperita L.) oil is one of the most popular and widely used essential oils, mostly because of its main components menthol and menthone. Peppermint oil is used for flavouring pharmaceuticals and oral preparations. Corn mint is the richest source of natural menthol. Carvone-scented mint plants, such as spearmint (M. spicata), are rich in carvone and are widely used as spices, and they are cultivated in several countries. Studies were made into the yield and essential oil content of several mint species and the original. The general aim of the work was to examine the optimal conditions for cultivating mint in Northern Finland. The specific aims of the study were (first) to investigate the differences in the oil content for several mint species and (secondly) to compare the effect of various factors such as plant spacing (10, 20 and 30 × 50 cm), liming (0, 4, 8, 12 and 16 tons ha-1), propagation methods (micropropagated and conventionally propagated plants) and harvest date (once at the end of August in comparison with first cut at the beginning of August and second cut in mid September) on the cultivation success, quality and quantity of the plants. The constituents of the essential oil were analysed from leaf samples using GC-MS. Among the peppermints of different origins studied, peppermint of USA and Egypt origin ('Black Mitcham') contain the highest menthol and optimum oil yield. Corn mint and Sachalin mints both had high menthol content. Due to several reasons, such as no significant differences between the different densities and oil composition, markedly higher amount of weeds at 30 × 50 cm than at 10 × 50 and 20 × 50 cm spacing and the high seedling costs and the danger of fungi and disease at a 10 × 50 cm spacing, a plant optimum of 20 × 50 cm spacing is recommended for Northern Ostrobothnia. If the pH value is lower than 6, or levels of Mg and Ca are low, liming at a rate of 4–8 t ha-1 for sandy soils in Finland is recommended in order to achieve higher fresh and oil yields. In the first year, there were no differences in the dry leaf yield of micropropagated and conventionally propagated plants, but the menthol content was significantly higher in conventionally than in micropropagated plants. In the second year, only the dry leaf yield of micropropagated plants was higher than that of their conventionally propagated counterparts. Cutting peppermint only once during full bloom (the end of August) gives the maximum oil yield of good quality. In conclusion, it is possible to achieve as high as or even higher oil quality and dry yield in North Ostrobothnia than it is in central Europe or south Asia. However, this requires observing certain cultivation factors such as having the right type of mint, soil pH, planting density, harvesting time and propagation method In addition, mints must be cultivated in the same place for only two and a maximum for three years.
337

Marchés financiers et gestion des risques : Une modélisation fractale de la VaR du CAC40 / Financial markets and risk management : Fractal VarR modeling of CAC40

Al Ayoubi, Mireille 13 December 2016 (has links)
Les marchés financiers occupent, depuis des décennies, une place importante dans notre société. Pourtant, ils présentent des risques accrus auxquels font face la majorité des institutions financières. Les crises, les krachs, les bulles et les turbulences financières jalonnent l’histoire de ces marchés et les déstabilisent fréquemment. En effet, l’existence des anomalies et des biais psychologiques, allant à l’encontre de l’hypothèse d’efficience, remettent en question la théorie financière et révèlent de façon rigoureuse les inefficacités des mécanismes de gestion financière et de contrôle du risque du marché. Confrontés à ces évolutions, le comité de Bâle II recommande la Value at Risk comme une nouvelle vision réglementaire des risques. Ce processus d’innovation financière, introduite par la banque JP Morgan dans les années 90, a connu une grande reconnaissance en finance, mais elle est aussi sujette à des controverses continuelles. Pour surmonter les limites de la VaR, nous proposons un nouveau cadre d’analyse de la VaR basé sur des processus fractals. Tenant compte des anomalies et des facteurs de risques du marché financier, qui induisent des rendements par nature non-gaussiens, nous introduisons la VaR en fonction du modèle multifractal à changements de régime markovien de Calvet et Fisher. L’approche VaR-MSM qui modélise la volatilité multifractale à différentes fréquences constitue un aperçu différent d’évaluation du risque du marché. En appliquant ce modèle sur l’indice boursier français le CAC 40, les résultats obtenus révèlent que la VaR-MSM a surpassé assez nettement les autres modèles d’évaluation de la VaR. / Financial markets occupy an important place in our society. However, they present increased risks to financial institutions. Crises, crashes, bubbles and financial turbulence often destabilize these markets. Indeed, the existence of different anomalies and psychological bias, going against the hypothesis of efficiency, put into question financial theory and present an inefficiency of financial and risk management. Faced with these effects, Bale II committee recommended Value at risk as a new financial instrument of risk management. Value at Risk, introduced by JP Morgan Bank in the 90, have a great recognition in finance, but it is also a subject of controversy. To overcome the VaR limits, we propose a new framework based on fractal process. Taking into account abnormalities and risk factors of financial markets, which induce non-Gaussian returns, we introduce the VaR with a Markov-switching multifractal model proposed by Calvet and Fisher. The VaR-MSM approach presents multifractal volatility at different frequencies. We apply this model to the France CAC 40 stock market index. The results clearly show the advantages of VaR-MSM compared with other models of VaR evaluation.
338

Structure de capital, profitabilité et risques des banques islamiques / Capital structure, profitability and risks of Islamic banks

Toumi, Kaouther 08 December 2011 (has links)
L'objectif de notre thèse est d'étudier les différences qui existent entre les banques islamiques et les banques conventionnelles en termes de structure de capital, de profitabilité et de profil de risque. Les principes qui régissent un système financier islamique sont différents de l'esprit de la finance conventionnelle. Si en finance conventionnelle, la norme qui préside les décisions d'un agent économique est l'optimisation du couple rendement-risque, cette norme n'est pas l'unique ni le principal critère de décision dans l'univers de la finance islamique. L'interdiction des taux d'intérêt et l'exigence d'une certaine éthique dans les transactions financières islamiques (exigence de transparence, partage équitable des profits, interdiction de la spéculation et prise de risque excessive, etc.) représentent les principes fondamentaux de la finance islamique. Nous avons fait émerger un cadre conceptuel nous permettant de comprendre la structure de capital et la profitabilité des banques islamique islamiques grâce à une revue de littérature théorique et empirique. Les théories mobilisées sont liées, d'une part aux théories de structure de capital notamment la théorie de tarde off, la théorie de Pecking Order et la théorie d'agence, d'autres part les théories liées à la profitabilité, notamment les théories de marché et de portefeuille. Les modèles économétriques (la régression logistique binaire, l'analyse discriminante et les modèles de régression sur données de panel) montrent l'existence des différences au niveau de structure du capital et de profitabilité entre les banques islamiques et les banques conventionnelles. Ces différences sont expliquées par les déterminants classiques révélés par la littérature financière. En plus, elles sont déterminées par les caractéristiques propres aux banques islamiques. Notre thèse avait pour objectif également d'identifier un nouveau risque propre aux banques islamiques, le risque commercial déplacé. Ce risque résulte de la gestion des comptes de nature unique, les comptes d'investissement participatifs. Il se manifeste lorsqu'une banque islamique n'assure pas une rentabilité suffisante aux détenteurs de ces comptes. Le modèle interne que nous avons proposé pour la quantification de ce risque, est basé sur la mesure VaR. Il repose sur les pratiques de la banque islamique en termes de rétention de réserves et de partage de profits avec les titulaires des comptes d'investissement. Notre modèle représente une alternatif à la mesure du risque commercial déplacé, à caractère arbitraire et forfaitaire proposé par l'IFSB (2005). / The objective of this thesis is to study differences between Islamic and conventional banks. The principles governing an islamic financial system are different from the spirit of conventional finance. If in conventional finance, the standard that preside decisions is the optimization of the risk-return couple, this standard is neither the only nor the main decision criterion in the world of Islamic finance. The fundamental principles of Islamic finance are the prohibition of interest and the requirement of a certain ethic (transparency, fair distribution of profits, prohibition of speculation and excessive risk taking, etc.) in financial transactions. These features impact significantly the capital structure, profitability and risk profile of Islamic banks. We made the emergence of a conceptual framework that allows us to understand the capital structure and profitability of Islamic banks, with a review of theoretical and empirical literature. Theories mobilized are related, first to the theories of capital structure including the theory of trade off, the Pecking Order theory and agency theory, and second on the other theories related to profitability, including the theories of market portofolio. Econometric models (binary logistic regression, discriminant analysis and multiple linear regression) show that there are differences in capital structure and profitability between Islamic banks and conventional. These differences are explained by traditional determinants of capital structure and profitability. In addition, they are explained by the specific characteristics of Islamic banks such as the new agency relationships that are created in an Islamic bank. Islamic banks are exposed to displaced commercial risk, a specific risk in these institutions. This risk results from the Profit sharing investment accounts PSIA and occurs when Islamic bank does not provide sufficient returns to PSIA holders. The internal model proposed to quantify this risk is based on the VaR measure. The proposed measure of risk depends on the practices of Islamic banking in terms of retention of reserves and profit sharing with PSIA holders.
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Analýza vzájomnej previazanosti vybraných európskych burzových trhov a tendencia k ich integrácii / Analysis of interconnection of selected European stock markets and their tendency towards integration

Polák, Michal January 2009 (has links)
This article compares the stock exchanges in Vienna, Budapest, Frankfurt and Milan. It settles basic information about their development, the subject of exchange and the classification of market segments. This work also characterizes the trade system of each of the stock exchanges and the liquidity of spot market, with particular emphasis on stock market. A part of this analysis is the comparison of markets based on aspects such as market capitalization, trade volume or the quantity of trade. Last chapter is devoted to the interconnection of stock markets, which is explored by the means of correlation coefficient among different indexes. These indexes show a strong link of the markets and through splitting the timeframe into periods of (2000-2004 - before Hungary's EU entry and after - 2004-2009), a stronger correlation was discovered during the period of index growth (after the Hungary's EU entry). By creating a more autoregressive model VAR, which describes individual processes among stock indexes and the direction of dependency, the hypothesis of strong interconnection of stock markets was proven. VAR model verified one-sided reliance among indexes and the rising level of integration of world markets.
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Caractérisation de l'activité hydrosédimentaire dans le système turbiditique du Var (NO Méditerranée) et de son enregistrement dans l'archive sédimentaire

Mas, Virginie 07 December 2009 (has links)
Le système turbiditique du Var présente la particularité d’être fréquemment parcouru par des écoulements gravitaires. Cela en fait un endroit privilégié pour étudier simultanément les facteurs déclenchant des courants de turbidité, leurs caractéristiques hydrodynamiques, leur contenu particulaire et les dépôts associés. Dans le cadre du projet Européen HERMES (6ème Programme Cadre), nous avons acquis pendant 2 ans dans le canyon du Var et dans la vallée turbiditique (1) des séries temporelles dans la colonne d’eau (30 m et 400 m au dessus du fond) sur la vitesse des courants, la température et le flux particulaire, et (2) des prélèvements répétés par carottage du sédiment de surface (...) / In the framework of the HERMES European project, this study aims to characterize the sedimentary processes acting in the Var turbiditic system, their impact on the morphology, and their evolution through time and space. This work uses data acquired along the system, including interface cores, acoustic data, and measurement in the water column (temperature, particulate fluxes, speed and direction of the currents) thanks to mooring lines. The Var turbiditic system is under the influences of the Northern Current and of the Var river by a direct connection. Sedimentary processes are related to gravity-driven currents, oceanic currents which remobilizes sediments and hemipelagic decantation. Gravity-driven processes are dominant and are responsible of 80% of the mean annual sedimentary transport in the system, at the scale of two years (2005-2007). They are characterized by a mean speed of 100 to 600 mm.s-1 and a mean particulate flux of 10 to more than 400 g.m-2.j-1. The combination of the river discharge data and our in-situ measures allows to discriminate the mechanism responsible of their triggering: mass-wasting or river floods. Hyperpycnal turbidity currents, generated by the plunging of the turbid plume are observed for flood extended to the whole hydrographic system, with a river discharge of more than 306 m.s-1 at the river mouth (...)

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