This study is a result from a major investigation about the snow conditions in Sweden since the beginning of the twentieth century. For this purpose, data were analysed with respect to the maximum snow depth and the number of days with snow cover every year from some more than forty selected stations. These stations were then divided into different regions and means were calculated for each series. The data are presented in the shape of different histograms in the four following categories; the whole period in request (1900-2003), the latest 43 years (1961-2003), consecutive mean values for every decade and time series with the highest frequented fluctuations equalized. To be able to detect any trends in the plotted time series two statistical methods, simple linear regression and Mann-Kendall’s test, were applied. The calculations belonging to these tests are showed in tables. To be able to answer the question if the global warming can be related to the latest 3-4 decades predominantly warm winters in the southern part of Sweden I have been studying correlations in snow data with respect to the northern hemispheres mean temperature for the winter season. Corresponding estimates of the correlation coefficients have also been made with respect to the Swedish winter mean temperature. The response of the tests shows that it has not been such dramatic change in the snow conditions in the long run. The magnitude of the slope for the adjusted regression lines implies that the maximum snow depth and the number of days with snow cover in average have been on a fairly constant level during the latest hundred years. When it comes to the maximum snow depth one can distinguish a tendency for a small rise in Götaland and northern Norrland. This is also the only cases which are statistical significant for the period in request (1905-2003). For the shorter period 1961-2003 however, the number of days with snow cover has decreased quite substantially in the southern part of Sweden corresponding to a decrease about 40% in Götaland and 20% in Svealand. The test based on simple linear regression gives significant results in both cases while Mann-Kendall only establishes the trend for Götaland. A closer view of the maximum snow depth for the shorter period (1961-2003) does not give the same response but there is at least evidence for a significant decrease in Svealand in the test with simple linear regression. It corresponds to a decrease of about 30% since 1960. One cannot immediately relate the changes in the Swedish snow climate to the global warming. Estimated values of the correlation coefficient do not even give significant results for the period 1961-2003 despite of the fact that the global mean temperature has raised quite considerably since 1970. The corresponding calculations for the Swedish winter mean temperature show that it plays a very important roll if the precipitation in Götaland and Svealand is coming as rain or snow while it does not matter at all in northern Norrland. / Denna studie är ett resultat av en omfattande undersökning av snöförhållandena i Sverige sedan början av 1900-talet. Jag har för detta ändamål analyserat data av maximala snödjup och antalet dagar med snötäcke per kalenderår från ett 40-tal utvalda stationer. Dessa stationer har sedan delats upp på olika regioner varefter medelvärden har räknats fram i resp. fall. Datamaterialet illustreras här i form av olika stapeldiagram uppdelat på fyra följande kategorier; hela tidsserien, perioden 1961-2003, konsekutiva 10-årsmedelvärden samt en tidsserie med de mest högfrekventa svängningarna bortdämpade. För att kunna bedöma eventuella trender i de uppritade tidsserierna så har jag använt mig av de båda statistiska metoderna enkel linjär regression resp. Mann-Kendall's test. Tillhörande beräkningar redovisas på tabellform. För att svara på frågan om den globala uppvärmningen kan sättas i samband med de senaste 30-40 årens övervägande snöfattiga vintrar i södra Sverige så har jag studerat korrelationen av snödata gentemot det norra halvklotets vintermedeltemperatur. Motsvarande beräkningar av korrelationskoefficienter har också genomförts för den svenska vintermedeltemperaturen Utslaget på testerna visar att det inte har skett så dramatiska förändringar i snöförhållandena på lång sikt. Magnituden på lutningskoefficienten för de anpassade regressionslinjerna tyder på att det maximala snödjupet och antalet dagar med snötäcke i medeltal har legat på en ganska konstant nivå under de senaste hundra åren. När det gäller maximala snödjup så kan man paradoxalt nog se en tendens till en svag uppgång för Götaland och norra Norrland. Det är också de enda fallen som är statistiskt säkerställda för tidsserien som helhet. För den kortare perioden 1961-2003 så kan man däremot se att antalet dagar med snötäcke har minskat relativt kraftigt i södra Sverige motsvarande en nedgång på cirka 40% i Götaland och 20% i Svealand. Test med enkel linjär regression ger signifikanta resultat i båda fallen medan Mann-Kendall endast fastställer trenden för Götaland. En närmare undersökning av det maximala snödjupet för den kortare tidsserien ger dock inte lika tydligt utslag i statistiken men man kan trots allt urskilja en signifikant minskning för Svealand i testet med enkel linjär regression. Det rör sig här om en nedgång på cirka 30% efter 1960. Det går inte att omedelbart relatera förändringarna i det svenska snöklimatet till den globala uppvärmningen. Beräknade värden på korrelationskoefficienten ger inte ens signifikant utslag för perioden 1961-2003 trots att den globala medeltemperaturen har ökat ganska markant sedan 1970. Motsvarande beräkningar för den svenska vintermedeltemperaturen visar att den har väldigt stor betydelse för om nederbörden i Götaland och Svealand faller som regn eller snö medan det för norra Norrland inte har någon nämnvärd påverkan.

The Ob is the third largest Eurasian river supplying heat and freshwater to the Arctic Ocean. These inputs influence water salinity, ice coverage, ocean temperatures and ocean circulation, and ultimately the global climate system. Variability of Ob River flow on long time scales is poorly understood, however, because gaged flow records are short. Eleven tree-ring width chronologies of Pinus sibirica and Larix sibirica are developed from the floodplain of the Lower Ob River, analyzed for hydroclimatic signal and applied as predictors in a regression model to reconstruct 8-month average (December-July) discharge of the Ob River at Salekhard over the interval 1705-2012 (308 yrs). Correlation analysis suggests the signal for discharge comes through air temperature: high discharge and floodplain water levels favor cool growing-season air temperature, which limits tree growth for the sampled species at these high latitudes. The reconstruction model (R-2 = 0.31, 1937-2009 calibration period) is strongly supported by cross validation and analysis of residuals. Correlation of observed with reconstructed discharge improves with smoothing. The long-term reconstruction correlates significantly with a previous Ob River reconstruction from ring widths of trees outside the Ob River floodplain and extends that record by another century. Results suggest that large multi-decadal swings in discharge have occurred at irregular intervals, that variations in the 20th and 21st centuries have been within the envelope of natural variability of the past 3 centuries, and that discharge data for 1937-2009 underestimate both the variability and persistence of discharge in the last 3 centuries. The reconstruction gives ecologists, climatologists and water resource planners a long-term context for assessment of climate change impacts.

Many U.S. conservatives view government mandates to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases as a threat to the economy of the developed world. Conservative think tanks have adopted a common rhetoric to instill doubt about proposed mandates in the minds of elected officials, the media, and the public. Using a survey of the websites of 14 conservative think tanks, this thesis analyzes counter-claims to global warming theory to identify rhetorical artifacts that typically characterize conservative responses to issues, and to show how rhetorical theory can help anticipate the nature of such responses. The research identifies unifying speech codes – such as ideographs and commonplaces – that provide the conservative movement’s appeal. The conclusion is that conservative counter-claims to global warming theory are an application of longstanding principles in a new and transformative way; and that the conservative movement is actually a “new social movement” as described by rhetorical theorists.

In order to predict how terrestrial ecosystems will respond to global change, there is growing recognition that we need to better understand linkages between plant and soil processes. Previously the factors and processes with potential to influence the terrestrial carbon (C) cycle have been investigated in isolation from each other. This study investigated the interactions of nutrient availability and warming in controlling the soil carbon dynamics, with regards to the fate of already sequestered carbon in soil, under conditions of increasing atmospheric temperatures. The project objectives were addressed by three independent experiments designed to explain specific components of the carbon-nutrient cycle interactions, and the findings brought together to describe the implications for future soil carbon storage. The main measurements collected throughout this project included soil carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes, partitioned into autotrophic and heterotrophic components, net ecosystem exchange and respiration fluxes, and background soil moisture and temperature data, backed by gas, soil and biomass analyses. In the two field experiments, these measurements were taken from plots with or without any inorganic nutrient additions or in the presence or absence of legumes providing biological nitrogen addition to the ecosystem. In the laboratory, temperature and nutrient availability were manipulated within the ecosystem. The reduction in decomposition rates, without reduction of productivity as a result of inorganic nutrient additions, indicated the potential for increasing C storage. There was also evidence that nutrient availability controls the strength of the link between plant and soil processes in semi-natural grasslands. The yields, decomposition rates and soil C fluxes recorded in the presence and absence of legumes provided some evidence of N2 fixation, improving ecosystem productivity and soil properties while reducing soil C effluxes, in a managed grassland. In the laboratory, the warming of soils from lysimeters with and without plants, receiving or not receiving fertiliser, supported the findings from field experiments regarding the importance of the soil-plant link in controlling C fluxes. However, C stocks and δ13C analyses showed that over a year’s worth of warming and nutrient manipulations made little difference to the amount of C stored in the soil, indicating that edaphic factors have greater control over the response of C dynamics to increased temperatures.

Recent studies have shown that skepticism about human-caused climate change has increased among people in Europe and the United States. Researchers have tried to examine the causes behind this trend. What some of the studies have found is that there could be connectivity between populistic and nationalistic ideologies and climate skepticism. The purpose of this study has been to, through an idea analysis, examine the American president Donald Trump to see what type of climate sceptic he is according to the typology created by Rahmstorf. Furthermore, the study seeks to understand if the scepticism could be linked to the theories of populism and nationalism. The study is based on interviews done by newspapers and tv-shows but also tweets written by Trump. The study found that Trump’s climate scepticism could be classified into all of Rhamstorf’s different levels of skepticism. It also found that Trump’s argumentation in the interviews and in his tweets could, in accordance with earlier research, be linked to populism and nationalism.

People are exposed to and influenced by persuasive tactics on a daily basis. Greater knowledge on the processes of persuasion would allow for the development of mechanisms that can assist in building people’s resistance to corrupt persuasive attempts and to heighten the use of persuasion for purposes that are beneficial. Despite the extensive amount of research that has been dedicated to investigating these dynamics, understandings remain predominantly inconclusive. It is for these reasons that this study sought to gain a greater understanding of the role of source credibility in persuasive processes. ‘Time’ and ‘source credibility’ were manipulated as the independent variables and used to assess changes in the dependent variable of ‘global warming opinions’. Results showed a general decline in global warming concern across the control and experimental conditions. These results highlighted the role of other interacting variables in persuasive contexts, while also further highlighting the great need for future studies in this domain.

Thesis advisor: Richard Tresch / As global warming became a more urgent issue, the European Union (EU) nations formed the EU emission trading scheme (EU ETS) to regulate carbon emissions. The EU ETS set upper limits for each EU nation’s carbon emission levels in three distinctive phases to gradually decrease the carbon emission levels to a targeted reduction level by 2020. Throughout the paper, I will focus on how independent variables such as accumulated reserves, allocated allowances, the total outstanding supply of carbon emission rights (CERs) in the market, the demand for CERs, energy consumption, and the required reduction amount by 2020 affect the price of CER and the ratio of verified emissions to the 2020 targeted upper limit. / Thesis (BA) — Boston College, 2016. / Submitted to: Boston College. College of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Departmental Honors. / Discipline: Economics.

O registro da temperatura terrestre é um indicador fundamental nas análises de mudanças do clima global. A presente investigação tratou da verificação e quantificação dos efeitos de heterogeneidades (erros) em séries da temperatura do ar obtidas em estação climatológica localizada em Itirapina, SP, Brasil. As principais causas de heterogeneidades estudadas foram: mudanças dos horários de observação e cálculos da temperatura média diária; mudanças dos tipos de instrumentos utilizados (convencionais e automáticos) e mudanças nos abrigos meteorológicos. A metodologia aplicada consistiu em comparar, em diferentes escalas temporais, várias séries de temperatura do ar em relação a uma série de referência, assumida como mais confiável. As diferenças obtidas, em termos de desvios, resultaram em valores nas seguintes ordens de grandeza, de acordo com cada escala: 10,0ºC na escala das medições horárias; 5,0ºC na escala das médias diárias; 2,0ºC, na escala mensal; 1,0ºC na escala anual; e 1,5ºC na escala de normal climatológica (30 anos) de exibição dos valores médios da temperatura do ar. Conclui-se que em escalas reduzidas (horárias e diárias) existem erros de alta magnitude de variação, porém de baixa frequência de ocorrência. Com o aumento da escala, a magnitude dos desvios diminui. As causas de heterogeneidades, de acordo com os desvios observados, ficam classificadas, na ordem de menor para a maior intensidade de influência: mudanças dos abrigos; mudanças dos cálculos das médias diárias; e mudanças dos instrumentos. No contexto da discussão do aquecimento global, na ordem de 0,6ºC no último século, a ocorrência de erros e incertezas de mesma ou maior magnitude pode comprometer o uso da temperatura do ar como uma evidência confiável de mudanças do clima, uma vez que mudanças não-climáticas interferem significativamente nas medições. O uso da evidência é discutido no contexto da interação entre a Ciência, Política, Mídia e Economia. Foi identificado que, neste âmbito externo ao meio científico, as incertezas são diminuídas e ignoradas, tanto devido ao processo de simplificação da informação para sua difusão, quanto devido a interesses que norteiam a manipulação intencional e tendenciosa do tema. Devido à disputa de diferentes interesses, foi feita uma breve discussão de alguns aspectos controversos, permeando a atuação de cientistas céticos à crença da contribuição humana significativa nas mudanças climáticas. / The instrumental temperature record is a key indicator in the analysis of global climate change. This research dealt with the verification and quantification of the effects of heterogeneities (errors) in air temperature series obtained from a climatological station located in Itirapina, SP, Brazil. The main causes of heterogeneity studied were: changes on the times of observation and on the daily mean air temperature calculation; changes on the types of instruments (conventional and automatic); and changes in thermometer screens. The methodology consisted of comparing, at different time scales, several series of air temperature series in relation to a reference series, assumed to be more reliable. The differences obtained, in terms of deviations, resulted in the following orders of magnitude, according to each scale: 10.0ºC in the range of hourly measurements, 5.0ºC in the range of daily mean, 2.0°C in monthly scale, 1.0°C in the annual scale and 1.5°C in the climatological normal scale (30 years). It follows that at small scales (hourly and daily) exist errors of high magnitude of change, but low frequency of occurrence. With increasing scale, the magnitude of the deviations decreases. The causes of heterogeneity, according to the observed deviations, are ranked in order of lowest to highest extent of influence: changes on screens, changes on daily mean air temperature calculation, and changes of the instruments. In the context of the discussion of global warming, on the order of 0.6ºC over the last century, the occurrence of errors and uncertainties in same or greater magnitude can compromise the use of air temperature as a reliable evidence of climate changes, since non-climatic changes significantly interfere the measurements. The use of evidence is discussed in the context of the interaction between Science, Politics, Media and Economics. It was identified that, outside the scientific environment context, the uncertainties are reduced and neglected, both due to the simplification process for the information dissemination, as due to concerns that guide the intentional and biased manipulation on the subject. Due to the competition of different interests, there was held a brief discussion of some controversial aspects, permeating the work of skeptical scientists on the belief of the significant human contribution to the climate change.

A pecuária de corte que gera emprego e renda para bilhões de pessoas em todo o mundo, vem ganhando destaque pelos impactos negativos causados ao meio ambiente. Isso decorre do sistema extensivo de produção adotado na maioria das regiões produtoras, que consome uma grande quantidade de recursos naturais como terra e água. Nas últimas décadas, a crescente preocupação com o aquecimento global estimulou as investigações sobre as fontes de emissões de Gases Efeito Estufa - GEE. Como resultado dessas investigações tem-se que a pecuária bovina comercial contribui com cerca de 11% das emissões globais causadas pela ação do homem (FAO, 2006). Os gases emitidos por esta atividade são principalmente o metano (CH4), gerado pela fermentação entérica e pelas fezes do animal, e o óxido nitroso (N2O), proveniente das fezes. No Brasil, o rebanho de 180 milhões de cabeças elevou esta atividade a ser a segunda principal emissora de GEE, perdendo apenas para o desmatamento. Os sistemas extensivos também predominam no cenário brasileiro. Uma das formas de mitigar os impactos ambientais é a intensificação da produção através da melhora da qualidade do alimento fornecido aos animais. No caso particular das emissões de GEE isto ocorre porque melhora o processo ruminal e diminui o tempo de vida do animal. Este trabalho teve como objetivo: i) avaliar do ponto de vista econômico o confinamento de animais em fase de terminação, a partir de propriedades modais do Centro-Oeste Brasileiro; e ii) apresentar as mudanças nas emissões de GEE desde a produção do alimento até o animal estar pronto para o abate decorrentes do confinamento, de acordo com a metodologia do Painel Intergovernamental de Mudanças Climáticas IPCC. Os resultados mostram que o confinamento dos animais na fase de terminação podem reduzir as emissões em 17%, de 41 kg de CO2 equivalente por quilo de carne produzida (kg CO2 eq./kg carne) para 33 kg CO2 eq./kg carne. Ficou claro também a redução promovida pela melhora no manejo do rebanho. Comparando o pior sistema, em termos das emissões (a pasto e com IEP de 21 meses) com o melhor (confinamento, com IEP de 15 meses) pôde-se perceber uma diferença de 33% na quantidade de CO2 eq/kg carne. Quanto à análise econômica, a intensificação da propriedade, através do confinamento dos animais em fase de terminação, se mostrou inviável para a maioria das propriedades modais apresentadas quando comparado com o sistema a pasto. / The beef cattle industry that generates jobs and income for billions of people around the world has been drawing attention over negative impacts caused to the environment. This is due to the extensive production system adopted in most producing areas, which consumes a large amount of natural resources such as land and water. In recent decades, the growing concern about global warming has stimulated investigations into sources of Greenhouse Gases Emissions GHG. Results show that cattle production accounts about 11% of global emissions caused by human action (FAO, 2006). Gases emitted by this activity are mainly methane (CH4), generated from enteric fermentation and feces, and nitrous oxide (N2O) from feces. In Brazil, the cattle herd comprises 180 million heads and this industry is the second largest in greenhouse gases emissions, only surpassed by deforestation. Extensive systems are also prevalent in the Brazilian scenario. One way to mitigate environmental impacts is to increase production by improving food quality supplied to animals. In the case of GHGs, particularly, this benefit occurs because there is improvement to the ruminal process and reduction of the life span of the animal. This study aimed to: i) assess the economic aspect of confining animals at slaughter phase, originally from modal properties of the Brazilian Center-West, and ii) to show changes in GHG emissions of feedlot system from food production to animal slaughter phase according to the methodology of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC. Results show that confinement of animals at slaughter phase can reduce emissions by 17% from 41 kg of CO2 equivalent per kg of meat produced (kg CO2 eq. / kg meat) to 33 kg CO2 eq. / kg meat. Gas reduction deriving from management improvements of the heard was also observed. Comparing the worst system in terms of emissions (pasture and IEP 21 months) with the most effective (confinement, with IEP 15 months) we reported a 33% difference in the amount of CO2 eq / kg meat. Regarding the economic analysis, intensifying production through the confinement of animals at slaughter phase, proved to be unfeasible for most modal properties studied when compared with pasture system.

A prevenção da hipotermia do paciente cirúrgico é um desafio para o enfermeiro. Na literatura há diferentes medidas que podem ser implementadas para a manutenção da temperatura corporal do paciente no perioperatório, salientamos os sistemas de aquecimento cutâneo. O presente estudo teve como objetivo avaliar as evidências disponíveis na literatura sobre qual é o sistema de aquecimento cutâneo mais eficaz para a prevenção da hipotermia, no paciente submetido à cirurgia cardíaca sem circulação extracorpórea, no período intra-operatório. O método de revisão adotado foi a revisão sistemática. As bases de dados PubMed, Cinahl, Embase, Central e Lilacs foram selecionadas para a busca dos estudos primários. Os descritores controlados e não controlados foram delimitados para cada uma das bases de dados. Dos 1.604 estudos localizados e considerando os critérios de inclusão e exclusão adotados, 25 estudos foram selecionados e oito foram incluídos na revisão sistemática. Dos oito estudos primários incluídos, quatro ensaios clínicos testaram o sistema de ar forçado aquecido e o sistema de circulação de água aquecida, sendo que em um destes estudos, a cobertura elétrica de fibra de carbono também foi estudada. Em dois ensaios clínicos, os autores investigaram o sistema de ar forçado aquecido e o sistema de transferência de energia com dispositivos adesivos. Em um ensaio clínico, o sistema de ar forçado aquecido e o sistema Thermogard foram estudados e um estudo primário investigou o pré-aquecimento, na indução anestésica, com o sistema de ar forçado aquecido. Os resultados evidenciados apontaram que o sistema de circulação de água aquecida é o mais eficaz para a manutenção da temperatura corporal do paciente submetido à revascularização do miocárdio sem circulação extracorpórea em comparação ao sistema de ar forçado aquecido. Em relação aos outros sistemas de aquecimento cutâneo há necessidade de novas pesquisas para determinar a eficácia destes em cirurgia cardíaca. A adoção de medidas para a prevenção da hipotermia é de responsabilidade de todos os profissionais que prestam cuidado ao paciente cirúrgico; entretanto, ressaltamos a atuação do enfermeiro perioperatório. Compete a esse profissional o planejamento e implementação de intervenções direcionadas para a melhoria da qualidade do cuidado de enfermagem e promovam a segurança do paciente. / Hypothermia prevention in surgical patients represents a challenge of nurses. Literature discusses different measures that can be put in practice to maintain patients\' perioperative body temperature, among which we highlight cutaneous warming systems. This study aimed to assess available evidence in literature on the most effective cutaneous warming system for hypothermia prevention in patients submitted to cardiac surgery without extracorporeal circulation, during the intraoperative period. The systematic review method was adopted. The databases PubMed, Cinahl, Embase, Central and Lilacs were selected to seek primary studies. Controlled and non-controlled descriptors were delimited for each of the databases. Out of 1,604 studies that were located, in view of the adopted inclusion and exclusion criteria, 25 were selected and eight included in the systematic review. Out of eight primary studies included, four clinical trials tested the forced-air warming system and the circulating-water garment system. In one of these, the carbon fiber resistive heating blanket was also studied. In two clinical trials, the authors investigated the forced-air warming system and the energy transfer pads system. In one clinical trial, the forced-air warming system and the Thermogard system were studied, and one primary study investigated prewarming during induced anesthesia, using the forcedair warming system. The evidenced results appointed that the circulating-water garment system is the most effective to maintain the body temperature of patients submitted to coronary artery bypass graft surgery without extracorporeal circulation in comparison with the forced-air warming system. As for other cutaneous warming systems, further research is needed to determine their efficacy in case of cardiac surgery. All professionals who deliver care to surgical patients are responsible for the adoption of hypothermia prevention measures; nevertheless, perioperative nurses\' actions are highlighted. These professionals are responsible for planning and putting in practice interventions aimed at improving nursing care quality and enhancing patient safety.