Laser assisted weapons, such as laser guided bombs, laser guided missiles and laser beam-riding missiles pose a significant threat to military assets in the modern battlefield. Laser beam-riding missiles are particularly hard to detect because they use low power lasers. Most laser warning systems produced so far can not detect laser beam-riding missiles because of their weak emissions which have signals less than 1% of laser range finder power . They are even harder to defeat because current counter-measures are not designed to work against this threat. The aim of this project is to examine the vulnerability of laser warning systems against guided weapons, to build an evaluation tool for laser warning sensors (LWS) and seekers, and try to find suitable counter-measures for laser beam-riding missiles that use low power lasers in their guidance systems. The project comes about because of the unexpected results obtained from extensive field trials carried out on various LWRs in the United Arab Emirates desert, where severe weather conditions may be experienced. The objective was to help find a solution for these systems to do their job in protecting the tanks and armoured vehicles crews from such a threat. In order to approach the subject, a computer model has been developed to enable the assessment of all phases of a laser warning receiver and missile seeker. MATLAB & SIMULINK software have been used to build the model. During this process experimentation and field trials have been carried out to verify the reliability of the model. This project will enable both the evaluation and design of any generic laser warning receiver or missile seeker and specific systems if various parameters are known. Moreover, this model will be used as a guide to the development of reliable countermeasures for laser beam-riding missiles.

Radar warning systems are life saving equipment in modern fighter aircraft. It is therefore vital that the system can tell the difference between a threat genuine frequency) and a false signal (spurious frequency). This thesis presents a model aimed at predicting the frequencies and other parameters in the RF converter of the radar warning system. The components of the RF converter have been studied, measured, and modelled. The modelling tool has been the Simulink toolbox for Matlab. Extreme accuracy has been sacrificed in order to make the model easy to use for the working engineer. Instead, this model presents a rough estimate of some of the most important properties of the radar warning system with just a few data sheet figures as input. The simulation results are satisfactory as a whole. Simulink is the limiting factor in the implementation of the model. Significantly improved results can probably be obtained by working in another software environment.

This paper presents a method for recognition of flame types coming from different kinds of fuel through analysis of flame images. Accurate detection of fire alarm and achievement of early warning is positive development for cities fire safety. Image-based fire flame detection technology is a new effective way to achieve early warning through the early fire flame detection. Different fuel combustion in air it the basic of basis to recognize the type of flame. The application built up by using generic color model and the techniques of image analysis.

Severe Acute Pancreatitis (SAP) is the rapid onset of inflammation within the pancreatic organ. Unlike the milder form of this illness, SAP is associated with a high mortality and morbidity. No significant reduction in the outcomes of this disease has been made since the implementation of organ supportive management over two decades ago. This is due to difficulties in distinguishing between the milder form of the disease in the early period of the onset of symptoms when clinical intervention is most likely to prevent complications and death. Clinical equipoise exists in the management of one of these complications, namely Abdominal Compartment Syndrome (ACS) as the conventional management of surgery runs contrary to published evidence showing early abdominal surgery deteriorates clinical outcomes. Aims: Validation of the potential use of the Early Warning Score (EWS) as a predictor of SAP. Evaluation of the evidence for recombinant human protein C (Xigris™) in the early treatment of SAP. Determination of the safety profile of Xigris™ when given early in SAP. To determine if surgical management of ACS in SAP is of significant benefit compared to conventional management alone. Methods: Four studies were performed: A prospective observational study assessing the median EWS of patients admitted with acute pancreatitis; a systematic review of published evidence reporting the use of Xigris™ in SAP; a prospective cohort study using a 24 hour infusion of Xigris™ early in patients diagnosed with SAP and a pilot randomized controlled trial of targeted decompression in patients with ACS complicating SAP. Results: The highest EWS values for 130 patients with acute pancreatitis within the first 3 days of admission were not shown to have significant sensitivity and specificity in predicting an unfavourable outcome. A review of the published literature between from January 1985 to January 2011 supported the further investigation of Xigris™ as a treatment for SAP. No significant adverse events or differences in outcomes were evident in 19 patients who received a 24-hour infusion of Xigris™ early in SAP compared to matched historical controls. 22 patients were screened for the development of ACS. No patient developed ACS and consequently no randomization to either treatment arm was possible. Conclusion: With the recent advent of an updated classification system for the severity of acute pancreatitis, further prospective evaluation of the use of EWS in clinical practice is warranted. The results of the Phase 1 clinical trial of Xigris™ didnot reveal significant safety issues that might preclude the further investigation of Xigris™ as a specific therapy early in the onset of SAP. The absence of ACS inpatients with SAP lends support to a theory that ACS may be an epiphenomenon in the course of SAP.

The deleterious effects of not completing high school in the United States and around the world in the current monetary, societal, and employment climate make efforts toward increasing graduation rates an imperative. The impetus for educational reform for improving graduation rates is even more salient for students with disabilities who graduate at lower rates than their peers without disabilities (Stetser & Stillwell, 2014). To provide the multi-tiered systems of support (MTSS) necessary to engage in this reform, data-systems with accurate and timely information are necessary. This research included construction of Hierarchical Generalized Linear Models to investigate the individual- and school-level predictor variables associated with on-time high school graduation for students with disabilities. To that end, the research examined the relationships among (1) individual student demographic background variables (2) individual academic and behavioral school related variables (3) school-wide characteristics of the schools that students in the research study attended and (4) on-time graduation as defined by the Federal Uniform Graduation Rate criteria. This research revealed significant relationships between on-time graduation and individual-level variables for students with disabilities including grade point average, attendance, and primary disability labels of Autism Spectrum Disorder and Intellectual Disabilities across grade levels. Additional significant predictors were found at specific grade levels (e.g., socio-economic status and education in a more restrictive environment). Implications for research to practice include a focus on early intervention prior to high school to increase odds of on-time graduation for students with disabilities and inclusion of additional variables for students with disabilities in Early Warning Systems (EWS). Additionally, customizing EWS through analysis of predictor sensitivity for specific populations by school district or school was discussed.

This paper aims to find macroeconomic and financial variables with ability to predict financial crises. A dataset covering 17 developed countries over the period 1870-2013 have been investigated using a logit model. We found commonly used macroeconomic variables such as terms of trade and consumption to be strong predictors within our sample. Whereas private debt and house prices are frequently found to be strong predictors, we found loans to business to be at least as good in predicting financial crises. Multivariate models are constructed as warning systems and used to analyze Sweden from 1975 up until 2016. The most efficient warning system give a strong signal before the first and moderate signal before the second crisis. In extension, regarding today’s climate the warning system provides no signal, suggesting low current risk. Policy makers can benefit from observing certain variables that are found significant in this study to improve financial stability and reduce socio-economic costs.

No description available.

Institutions have implemented many campus interventions to address student persistence/retention, one of which is Early Warning Systems (EWS). However, few research studies show evidence of interventions that incorporate noncognitive factors/skills, and psychotherapy/psycho-educational processes in the EWS. A qualitative study (phenomenological interview and document analysis) of EWS at both a public and private 4-year Florida university was conducted to explore EWS through the eyes of the administrators of the ways administrators make sense of students’ experiences and the services they provide and do not provide to assist students. Administrators’ understanding of noncognitive factors and the executive skills subset and their contribution to retention and the executive skills development of at-risk students were also explored. Hossler and Bean’s multiple retention lenses theory/paradigms and Perez’s retention strategies were used to guide the study. Six administrators from each institution who oversee and/or assist with EWS for first time in college undergraduate students considered academically at-risk for attrition were interviewed. Among numerous findings, at Institution X: EWS was infrequently identified as a service, EWS training was not conducted, numerous cognitive and noncognitive issues/deficits were identified for students, and services/critical departments such as EWS did not work together to share students’ information to benefit students. Assessment measures were used to identify students’ issues/deficits; however, they were not used to assess, track, and monitor students’ issues/deficits. Additionally, the institution’s EWS did address students’ executive skills function beyond time management and organizational skills, but did not address students’ psychotherapy/psycho-educational processes. Among numerous findings, at Institution Y: EWS was frequently identified as a service, EWS training was not conducted, numerous cognitive and noncognitive issues/deficits were identified for students, and services/critical departments such as EWS worked together to share students’ information to benefit students. Assessment measures were used to identify, track, and monitor students’ issues/deficits; however, they were not used to assess students’ issues/deficits. Additionally, the institution’s EWS addressed students’ executive skills function beyond time management and organizational skills, and psychotherapy/psycho-educational processes. Based on the findings, Perez’s retention strategies were not utilized in EWS at Institution X, yet were collectively utilized in EWS at Institution Y, to achieve Hossler and Bean’s retention paradigms. Future research could be designed to test the link between engaging in the specific promising activities identified in this research (one-to-one coaching, participation in student success workshops, academic contracts, and tutoring) and student success (e.g., higher GPA, retention). Further, because this research uncovered some concern with how to best handle students with physical and psychological disabilities, future research could link these same promising strategies for improving student performance for example among ADHD students or those with clinical depression.

Nos travaux ont démontré les performances des systèmes d’intelligence épidémiologique en matière de détection précoce des évènements infectieux au niveau mondial, la valeur ajoutée spécifique de chaque système, la plus grande sensibilité intrinsèque des systèmes modérés et la variabilité du type de source d’information utilisé. La création d’un système virtuel combiné intégrant le meilleur résultat des sept systèmes a démontré les gains en termes de sensibilité et de réactivité, qui résulterait de l’intégration de ces systèmes individuels dans un supra-système. Ils ont illustrés les limites de ces outils et en particulier la faible valeur prédictive positive des signaux bruts détectés, la variabilité les capacités de détection pour une même pathologie, mais également l’influence significative jouée par le type de pathologie, la langue et la région de survenue sur les capacités de détection des évènements infectieux. Ils ont établis la grande diversité des stratégies d’intelligence épidémiologique mises en œuvre par les institutions de santé publique pour répondre à leurs besoins spécifiques et l’impact de ces stratégies sur la nature, l’origine géographique et le nombre des évènements rapportés. Ils ont également montré que dans des conditions proches de la routine, l’intelligence épidémiologique permettait la détection d’évènements infectieux en moyenne une à deux semaines avant leur notification officielle, permettant ainsi d’alerter les autorités sanitaires et d’anticiper la mise en œuvre d’éventuelles mesures de contrôle. Nos travaux ouvrent de nouveaux champs d’investigations dont les applications pourraient être importantes pour les utilisateurs comme pour les systèmes. / Our work demonstrated the performance of the epidemic intelligence systems used for the early detection of infectious diseases in the world, the specific added value of each system, the greater intrinsic sensitivity of moderated systems and the variability of the type information source’s used. The creation of a combined virtual system incorporating the best result of the seven systems showed gains in terms of sensitivity and timeliness that would result from the integration of these individual systems into a supra-system. They have shown the limits of these tools and in particular: the low positive predictive value of the raw signals detected, the variability of the detection capacities for the same disease, but also the significant influence played by the type of pathology, the language and the region of occurrence on the detection of infectious events. They established the wide variety of epidemic intelligence strategies used by public health institutions to meet their specific needs and the impact of these strategies on the nature, the geographic origin and the number of events reported. As well, they illustrated that under conditions close to the routine, epidemic intelligence permitted the detection of infectious events on average one to two weeks before their official notification, hence allowing to alert health authorities and therefore the anticipating the implementation of eventual control measures. Our work opens new fields of investigation which applications could be important for both users systems.

O aprimoramento de processos de gerenciamento de empreendimentos é um fator condicionante para que uma empresa mantenha sua competitividade no mercado de empreendimentos imobiliários de edifícios de apartamentos. O gerenciamento de prazos está entre os processos que concentra maiores esforços durante as fases de planejamento e implantação de um empreendimento, pois desvios de prazo geralmente afetam sensivelmente sua rentabilidade. O objetivo desta pesquisa é apresentar uma abordagem de gerenciamento de riscos orientada ao gerenciamento de prazos com ênfase na identificação de alertas antecipados a condições de risco de cumprimento de prazos. A partir do reconhecimento do estado da arte sobre o tema, um estudo de caso foi conduzido em empresas que atuam no mercado de empreendimentos imobiliários de edifícios de apartamentos na cidade de São Paulo. Este estudo permitiu a exploração do conjunto de práticas de gerenciamento de prazos e riscos e dos alertas utilizados por estas empresas no gerenciamento de seus empreendimentos. A abordagem proposta se baseia na integração entre os processos de gerenciamento de prazos e riscos, possibilitando a utilização de alertas antecipados como suporte ao processo de tomada de decisões, permitindo reagir rapidamente, tão logo um alerta seja identificado. / The improvement of the project management process is a key factor for a company to keep its competitiveness in the real estate market. Time management demands great efforts during the planning and implementation phases of a project, since schedule delays usually affect the project profits in a significant way. The objective of this research is to present an approach to risk management oriented to time management processes with emphasis on the identification of early warnings about risk conditions to time of conclusion. Based on the recognition of the state-of-the-art of this subject, a case study was conducted in companies that act in the apartment building real estate market in the city of São Paulo. This case study enabled us to exploit a set of time and risk management practices and early warnings used by these companies while managing their projects. The approach proposed is based on the integration of time and risk management processes, making possible for us the use of early warning as a support to decision making process, allowing us to react quickly, as soon as a warning is identified.