A interação existente entre a água superficial e subterrânea nas bacias hidrográficas faz necessário o gerenciamento conjunto de ambos os recursos. Nesse sentido, o Soil Moisture Model (SMM) e a ferramenta WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning system) foram utilizados para simular o sistema atual e avaliar os impactos do uso conjunto dos recursos hídricos superficial e subterrâneo nas bacias que abastecem o município de São Carlos, SP. O modelo foi calibrado com o objetivo de avaliar o comportamento das bacias no período de 1997-2007. Para a vazão mensal, as etapas de calibração e validação do WEAP geraram coeficientes de Nash-Sutcliffe e de porcentagem de viés considerados bons pela literatura. A robustez e facilidade de uso do modelo foram analisados, avaliando seu potencial como sistema de apoio a decisão. Também, foram gerados seis cenários futuros a partir da combinação de mudanças no uso do solo e aumento de demandas usando prioritariamente algum dos dois recursos. Nas simulações feitas para a década de 2030 não se apresentaram diferenças significativas com respeito a variável de uso do solo, contrastando com o comportamento variável da demanda. Os resultados indicaram que o município não apresenta deficiência na quantidade de água necessária para abastecer as demandas futuras, porém o rebaixamento pronunciados do nível estático do aquífero poderá produzir efeitos adversos na operação de poços existentes e no sistema hidrológico geral. / The interaction between surface and groundwater in river basins makes it necessary an integrated management of both resources. In this sense, the o Soil Moisture Model (SMM) and the WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning system) tool were used to simulate the current system and to evaluate the impacts of the joint use of surface and underground water resources in the basins that supply the city of São Carlos, SP. With the aim of evaluating the behavior of the basins in the period 1997 to 2007. For the monthly flow, the WEAP calibration and validation stages generated Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients and percentage of bias considered goods. The robustness and ease of use of the model were analyzed, evaluating its potential as a decision support system. The results of the simulations for the 2030s for six future scenarios did not show significant differences respect to the variable of land use, different from the behavior with the demand variable. The results indicated that the municipality does not present a deficiency in the quantity of water needed to supply the futures demands. However, the pronounced lowering of the static level of the aquifer could produce adverse effects on the operation of existing wells and the general hydrological system.

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento CientÃfico e TecnolÃgico / The process of water allocation between different and competing uses in an uncertain climate scenario reinforces the motivation to study risk management of water systems. In this way, the purpose of this study is to propose the incorporation of a climate risk management mechanism in the process of water allocation, aiming an equitable and efficient management of these resources. For this, an aggregate model consisting of a reservoir of regulation and two users (urban supply and irrigation) was used to build and evaluate a financial mechanism. Afterwards, a disaggregation model consisting of multiple reservoirs was used to apply the concepts defined in the previous model. Initially, an indicator was chosen to be used as a trigger for the financial mechanism. This trigger started the mechanism whenever any rigorous state of drought in the water system was detected, which were classified in four different types: moderate drought, severe drought, extreme drought and exceptional drought. The amount of compensation was calculated based on the benefits achieved by the sector that lost water guarantee during the scarcity period. This evaluation was performed by the application of two methods for apportioning the water availability: linear apportionment and priority system. The available water flow for allocation was calculated using the reservoir operation strategy with inflows zero in the semester of the year. However, the incorporation of climate information in the process was also tested. Two triggers were proposed for the financial mechanism: Drought indices and Rationing level. The drought indices were built based on the average precipitation (standardized precipitation index), the inflow (standardized index flow) and the final volume of system operation (synthetic index). The rationing level mechanism is based on the available water flow for allocation and it was chosen due to its existing relation with the volume stored. This relationship allows the trigger to perform well both for the drought detection probability as for the false alarm. In addition, a conceptual framework for incorporating the financial mechanism to charge for the water use was elaborated, as well as an evaluation of the performance of the system as for the incorporation of the financial mechanism through two indicators: economic efficiency and equity (allocative justice). The performance evaluation showed that the payment of compensation in a period of drought due higher warranty (priority) of other uses operates to a greater equity and efficiency in water allocation. In order to keep the funds collected by the charge to cover the compensation, a regularization fund that has annual revenues of parcels carried out by the urban water supply and by the government was created. This regularization fund ensures the financial sustainability and also a good ability to adapt the incorporation mechanism to the collect instrument. Consequently, the financial compensation is a viable option for both water managers, who will have greater flexibility in their decisions, as well as for the water resources system, that will have more equity in their process of water allocation. / O processo de alocaÃÃo de Ãgua entre usos diferentes e conflitantes em um cenÃrio de incerteza climÃtica reforÃa a motivaÃÃo para estudar a gestÃo de riscos em sistemas hÃdricos. Dessta forma, o presente estudo propÃe a incorporaÃÃo de um mecanismo de gestÃo de risco climÃtico no processo de alocaÃÃo de recursos hÃdricos visando o gerenciamento equitativo e eficiente desses recursos. Para isso, utilizou-se um modelo agregado composto por um reservatÃrio de regularizaÃÃo e dois usuÃrios abastecimento urbano e irrigaÃÃo, para construir e avaliar o mecanismo financeiro. Em seguida, utilizou-se um modelo desagregado, com mÃltiplos reservatÃrios, para aplicar os conceitos definidos no modelo anterior. Inicialmente, foi definido um indicador para ser utilizado como gatilho do mecanismo financeiro. Esse gatilho acionou o mecanismo sempre que foi detectado algum estado de severidade seca no sistema hÃdrico, sendo utilizado quatro estados: seca moderada, seca severa, seca extrema e seca excepcional. O valor da compensaÃÃo foi calculado com base nos benefÃcios alcanÃados pelo setor que perdeu garantia hÃdrica no perÃodo de escassez. Essa avaliaÃÃo foi realizada por meio da aplicaÃÃo de dois mÃtodos de rateio das disponibilidades hÃdricas: rateio linear e sistema de prioridades. A vazÃo disponÃvel para alocaÃÃo foi determinada utilizando a estratÃgia de operaÃÃo do reservatÃrio com afluÃncias zero no semestre do ano. Entretanto, tambÃm testou-se a incorporaÃÃo da informaÃÃo climÃtica nesse processo. Foram propostos dois gatilhos para o mecanismo financeiro: Ãndices de seca e NÃvel de Racionamento. Os Ãndices de seca foram construÃdos com base na precipitaÃÃo mÃdia (Ãndice padronizado de precipitaÃÃo), na vazÃo afluente (Ãndice padronizado de escoamento) e no volume final da operaÃÃo do sistema (Ãndice sintÃtico). O nÃvel de racionamento possuiu como base a vazÃo disponÃvel para alocaÃÃo (retirada controlada). A escolha dessa variÃvel deu-se pela relaÃÃo existente entre ela e o volume armazenado Essa relaÃÃo permite que o gatilho obtenha um bom desempenho tanto para a probabilidade de detecÃÃo de seca quanto para o falso alarme. AlÃm disso, elaborou-se uma base conceitual para incorporar o mecanismo financeiro a cobranÃa pelo uso da Ãgua e avaliou-se o desempenho do sistema quanto à incorporaÃÃo do mecanismo financeiro por meio de dois indicadores, eficiÃncia econÃmica e equidade (justiÃa alocativa). A avaliaÃÃo de desempenho mostrou que o pagamento da compensaÃÃo em um perÃodo de seca devido à maior garantia (prioridade) de outros usos opera no sentido de uma maior equidade e eficiÃncia na alocaÃÃo de Ãgua. No intuito de guardar os recursos financeiros arrecadados pela cobranÃa para a cobertura das compensaÃÃes propÃs-se um fundo de regularizaÃÃo que possui parcelas de arrecadaÃÃo anual realizadas pelo abastecimento urbano e pelo governo. O fundo de regularizaÃÃo garante a sustentabilidade financeira e a incorporaÃÃo do mecanismo ao instrumento de cobranÃa uma boa capacidade de adaptaÃÃo ao sistema. Assim, a compensaÃÃo financeira à uma opÃÃo viÃvel tanto para os gestores de recursos hÃdricos que terÃo maior flexibilidade nas suas decisÃes quanto para o sistema de recursos hÃdricos que terà maior equidade no seu processo de alocaÃÃo de Ãgua.

This dissertation evaluates the water allocation challenges in the rural river basins of the developing world, where demands are growing and the supply is limited. While many of these basins have yet to reach the state of closure, their water users are already experiencing water shortages. Agricultural crop production in rural river basins of the developing world plays a major role in ensuring food security. However, irrigation as the major water consumer in these basins has low water use efficiency. As water scarcity grows, the need to maximize economic gains by reallocating water to more efficient uses becomes important. Water allocation decisions must be made considering the social economic and environmental conditions of the developing world. The purpose of this dissertation is to identify water allocation strategies that satisfy the above conditions, in the example of the Walawe River basin in Sri Lanka. In this dissertation three manuscripts are presented. The first manuscript takes a broad view of the current water allocation situation. The second manuscript develops a methodology to analyze water allocation under a priority-based approach with the use of network flow simulation techniques. The third manuscript analyzes the water supply-demand situation in the basin under future climatic conditions. The major findings of this study suggest that: (1) while up to 44% of water is still available for use, seasonality of inflows, poor water management, physical infrastructure deficiencies, and other socio-economic factors contribute to the irrigation deficits in the Walawe basin; (2) prioritizing irrigation over hydropower generation increases supply reliability by 21% in the Walawe irrigation system IRR 1. The corresponding annual loss in power output in less than 0.5%. Prioritizing the left bank irrigation area in system IRR 2 increases the economic gains from crop yields by US $1 million annually; (3) an increase of water use efficiency between 30-50% in agriculture can mitigate all water deficits in agriculture, urban water supply and industrial sectors; (4) the predicted 25% increase of rainfall over the Walawe basin in the 2050's allows for 43% increase in hydropower generation (with changes to power generation mode) and 3-16 % reduction in irrigation requirements; (5) network flow simulation techniques can be successfully used to evaluate different demand management strategies and improvements to the priority-based water allocation method.

The interconnections between groundwater and river systems remain poorly understood in many catchments throughout the world, and yet they are fundamental to effectively managing water resources. Groundwater extraction from aquifers that are connected to river systems will reduce river flows, and this has implications for riverine ecosystem health, water security, aesthetic and cultural values, as well as water allocation and water management policies more generally. The decline in river flows as a consequence of groundwater extractions has the potential to threaten river basin industries and communities reliant on water resources. ¶ In this thesis the connectivity between groundwater and river systems and the impact that groundwater extractions have on river flows were studied in one of Australia’s most developed irrigation areas, the Namoi River catchment in New South Wales. ¶ Gauged river reaches in the Namoi River catchment were characterised according to three levels of information: 1) presence of hydraulic connection between aquifer-river systems; 2) dominant direction of aquifer-river flux; and 3) the potential for groundwater extraction to impact on river flows. The methods used to characterise the river reaches included the following analyses: 1) a comparison of groundwater and river channel base elevations using a GIS/Database; 2) stream hydrographs and the application of a baseflow separation filter; 3) flow duration curves and the percentage of time a river flows; 4) vertical aquifer connectivity from nested piezometer sites; and 5) paired stream and groundwater hydrographs. ¶ The theoretical responses for gaining, losing and variably gaining-losing river reaches were conceptualised along with the processes that operate in these systems. Subsequently, a map was prepared for the Namoi River catchment river reaches indicating aquifer-river connectivity and dominant direction of flux. Large areas of the Upper Namoi River catchment were found to have connected aquifer-river systems, with groundwater extraction bores located in close proximity to the rivers. Accordingly, the potential for groundwater extraction to impact on river flows in these areas was considered significant. The Lower Namoi was assessed as having mostly disconnected aquifer-river systems. ¶ In order to investigate the impacts of groundwater extraction on river flows in connected aquifer-river systems, a simple integrated aquifer-river model entitled IHACRES_GW was developed for use at the catchment scale. The IHACRES_GW model includes a dynamic, spatially-lumped rainfall-runoff model, IHACRES, combined with a simple groundwater bucket model that maintains a continuous water balance account of groundwater storage volumes for the upstream catchment area relative to the base of the stream, assumed to be the stream gauging station. The IHACRES_GW model was developed primarily: 1) to improve upon existing water allocation models by incorporating aquifer-river interactions; 2) to quantify the impacts of groundwater extraction on river flows within unregulated, connected aquifer-river systems; 3) to inform water policy on groundwater extraction; and 4) to be able to utilise the model in future integrated assessment of water allocations options at the catchment scale. ¶ The IHACRES_GW model was applied within the Cox’s Creek subcatchment in order to test its validity. The model was used to simulate a range of extraction scenarios which enabled the impacts of groundwater extractions on river flows to be assessed. In particular, the historical impacts of groundwater extraction on the timing, magnitude and frequency of baseflow events were quantified over a 15-year (1988-2003) simulation period. The IHACRES_GW model was also used to evaluate the implications of water sharing plans for the Cox’s Creek subcatchment. ¶ A spatially-lumped modelling approach in the management of water resources has a number of limitations, including those arising from the lack of spatial considerations. However, it offers a number of advantages including facilitating a better understanding of large-scale water management issues, assessing the impacts of water allocation and groundwater extraction on river flows at the catchment scale, and informing water sharing plans. In particular, this type of modelling approach lends itself to integrated assessments of water allocation options in which hydrological, ecological and socioeconomic data sets are combined, and where data is commonly aggregated to a larger scale of interest in response to the requirements of policy makers. The research findings from this thesis provide some insights into how to better manage the impacts of groundwater extraction in connected aquifer-river systems.

L’eau est vitale dans toutes les économies. C’est à cause de son rôle prépondérant pour la survie que les tensions politiques autour des basins et des fleuves internationaux tendent à être particulièrement très épineuses. Actuellement, la mauvaise répartition de cette ressource pose un sérieux problème du fait qu’elle est gérée en fonction de stratégies politiques et non en fonction des réalités hydrologiques régionales. Nous expliquons à l’aide de la « Enhanced Power Matrix Model » (La Matrice de FREY et NAFF améliorée) que les tensions autour des bassins et des fleuves au Moyen – Orient n’aboutiront pas à des conflits armés mais à une situation de non guerre et de non paix, très peu propice à la coopération. Pour sortir de cette situation de blocage, nous proposons aux décideurs politiques et aux négociateurs, sur base de l’article 6 de la Convention de New York de 1997 sur « les cours d’eau internationaux à d’autres usages que la navigation », un modèle de répartition de la ressource hydrique entre les différents riverains d’un cours d’eau international. Face à cette situation, beaucoup de pays de la région tentent de mettre de façon unilatérale des modèles de gestion macroéconomique : réduction de la demande ou l’augmentation de l’offre de l’eau. Ces modèles se heurtent à des obstacles de nature économique, politique, sociologique et culturelle. Dans un objectif de conception de nouveaux modèles de gestion de l’eau, nous proposons un modèle coopératif, les projets de transfert inter – bassin, pour faire face à la mauvaise répartition de cette ressource au Moyen – Orient. Nous appuyons sur la méthodologie multicritère d’aide à la décision pour opérationnaliser l’article 6 de la Convention de New York et pouvoir comparer les différents projets de transfert inter - bassin. Cette méthodologie fait appel à un logiciel d’aide à la décision « Décision Lab 2000 ». Le commentaire des résultats fournis par ce logiciel nous a permit de tirer l’enseignement suivant : seuls les projets qui présentent une faisabilité politique élevée arrivent en tête de classement. Ce qui nous fait dire que la question de l’eau au Moyen – Orient est, avant tout, une question politique.

The allocation of water resources is typically accomplished within the framework of water allocation systems (WAS). In general, a WAS sets priorities, applies rules, and organizes responses to a range of water allocation scenarios. This research presents a comprehensive study of water allocation strategies and provides a conceptual framework of principles and guidelines for designing, assessing, implementing and supporting WAS. The voluminous compilation of international treaties and conventions, interstate compacts, intrastate administrative documentation, and scientific/engineering literature was researched in order to identify different water allocation strategies and mechanisms. From this analysis eight fundamental areas of WAS were identified: water rights, determination of water allotment, administrative systems, reservoir storage considerations, system reliability, multiple uses, instream flow requirements, and drought management. The systematic scrutiny of these eight areas at the international, interstate, and intrastate levels defined the conceptual framework for assessing WAS. The Texas experience with regard to its Water Availability Modeling system is also reviewed with particular emphasis on the application of the Water Rights Analysis Package (WRAP) model in supporting water allocation efforts. The Lower Rio Grande WAS was used as a case study to demonstrate how the principles presented in the conceptual framework can be used to assess water allocation issues and identify alternative strategies. Three WRAP simulation studies utilizing several components of the conceptual framework were performed in order to assess the Lower Rio Grande WAS. The simulations focused on three of the major water allocation issues of the Texas Rio Grande: reallocation among uses, instream flow requirements, and drought management. The simulations showed several deficiencies in the Lower Rio Grande WAS, particularly regarding the size of the domestic-municipal-industrial (DMI) reserve and its effect on the reliability of other uses. The simulation results suggest that water from the DMI can be liberated to be used by irrigators and to support environmental flows without affecting the reliability to municipal users. Several strategies were proposed that can potentially improve the overall efficiency of the system. Nonetheless, implementing new strategies and water allocation policies in the Lower Rio Grande WAS would require considerable changes in regulation policies.

The purpose of this thesis is to explore the relationship between the impacts of climate change and transboundary water management (TWM) mechanisms. The thesis does so through a case study of the transboundary water agreements between Israel, Palestine and Jordan – states that share the transboundary waters in the Jordan River Basin (JRB), a basin that lies in a region of high political tensions and decreasing precipitation. By using empirical climate data on precipitation, temperature and general climate change projections for the basin, the author seeks to understand how these environmental changes will challenge TWM in the JRB. By using qualitative methods to examine the water agreements through the method of process tracing, the thesis seeks to understand how the water agreements are constructed to handle changes in waterflow due to climate change. The results show that the transboundary mechanisms, the water agreements and Joint Water Committees (JWC), managing the transboundary waters in the JRB, possess weak mechanisms to manage changes in waterflow. As a consequence, the whole basin might experience increasing political pressures in the future over the fulfilment of water allocation provisions. The thesis further suggests that the TWM structures in the case lack awareness and mechanisms to handle climate change impacts. On the other hand, the JWCs have an institutional capacity, expertise, and mandate in managing these potential risks in the future. However, incidents in the past, manifest that decreased waterflow leads to increasing political tensions and conflicts between the states in the basin due to the lack of conflict resolution mechanisms in the TWM structures. In order to establish a sustainable TWM in the JRB, the suggested recommendation is that climate change impacts ought to be embedded into the water agreements by incorporating flexible mechanisms for water allocation. In addition, the conflict resolution mechanisms should be strengthened.

Stochastic programming is a mathematical technique for decision making under uncertainty using probabilistic statements in the problem objective and constraints. In practice, the distribution of the unknown quantities are often known only through observed or simulated data. This dissertation discusses several methods of using this data to formulate, solve, and evaluate the quality of solutions of stochastic programs. The central contribution of this dissertation is to investigate the use of techniques from simulation and statistics to enable data-driven models and methods for stochastic programming. We begin by extending the method of overlapping batches from simulation to assessing solution quality in stochastic programming. The Multiple Replications Procedure, where multiple stochastic programs are solved using independent batches of samples, has previously been used for assessing solution quality. The Overlapping Multiple Replications Procedure overlaps the batches, thus losing the independence between samples, but reducing the variance of the estimator without affecting its bias. We provide conditions under which the optimality gap estimators are consistent, the variance reduction benefits are obtained, and give a computational illustration of the small-sample behavior. Our second result explores the use of phi-divergences for distributionally robust optimization, also known as ambiguous stochastic programming. The phi-divergences provide a method of measuring distance between probability distributions, are widely used in statistical inference and information theory, and have recently been proposed to formulate data-driven stochastic programs. We provide a novel classification of phi-divergences for stochastic programming and give recommendations for their use. A value of data condition is derived and the asymptotic behavior of the phi-divergence constrained stochastic program is described. Then a decomposition-based solution method is proposed to solve problems computationally. The final portion of this dissertation applies the phi-divergence method to a problem of water allocation in a developing region of Tucson, AZ. In this application, we integrate several sources of uncertainty into a single model, including (1) future population growth in the region, (2) amount of water available from the Colorado River, and (3) the effects of climate variability on water demand. Estimates of the frequency and severity of future water shortages are given and we evaluate the effectiveness of several infrastructure options.

ABREU, Inah Maria de. Alocação negociada da água no Ceará: proposta metodológica para a tomada de decisão em cenário de escassez. 2015. 130 f. : Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Federal do Ceará, Pró-Reitoria de Pesquisa e Pós-Graduação, Programa de Pós-Graduação em desenvolvimento e Meio Ambiente - PRODEMA, Fortaleza-CE, 2015 / Submitted by Nádja Goes (nmoraissoares@gmail.com) on 2016-05-13T13:53:00Z No. of bitstreams: 1 2015_tese_imabreu.pdf: 3888437 bytes, checksum: c66f55c4ab0e937111d999dacc9cb084 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Nádja Goes (nmoraissoares@gmail.com) on 2016-05-13T13:53:19Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 2015_tese_imabreu.pdf: 3888437 bytes, checksum: c66f55c4ab0e937111d999dacc9cb084 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-05-13T13:53:19Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 2015_tese_imabreu.pdf: 3888437 bytes, checksum: c66f55c4ab0e937111d999dacc9cb084 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015 / The water, especially for being a common use, with reduced current availability in the world, makes your allocation a social dilemma that requires decisions and make your rational management essential. This thesis arises from the interest in developing the proposition, with involvement of social agents of the participatory management of water resources of the State of Ceará-Brazil. The methodology is compartmentalized into three steps: secondary data collection; the primary indicators, which it intends to obtain empirical data, on the basis of: participation in meetings of negotiated allocation of water, in the application of questionnaires, interviews and cooperative games with members of social arena and conducting social experiment; Finally, the treatment of information and indications that integrates, correlates, and analyzes the information and guides collected in Office and field. The consultation, through application of the questionnaires, together with members of the 12 (twelve) committees of the catchment area of the State of Ceará pointed as a result to guarantee future of use of water stored in a reservoir, in times of scarcity, as the primary motivation that encourages taking rational attitudes on water use. The results of the application of cooperative games bring out the existence of factors that interfere in the decision-making of the members of the watershed committees. Based on the data collected and interviews conducted, devised the "cognitive Map added" where were identified the strategies that make up the path to the meeting of attributes that can be negotiated for the allocation of water. Also indicated result of social experiment conducted in river basin Committee, where he obtained the members that sustainable exploitation of water resources by the water users sectors, is essential criterion for establishing order of preference in the use of water in situations of scarcity. The criterion inventoried, so associated with the results of the consultation and of the cognitive mapping of the river basin committees, is in line with the proposal for allocation of water, composed essentially of two strategies: first, social participation based on the planning steps for the preparation of the scenarios of reservoir systems operation, therefore, with emphasis on dialogue and involvement of society , and the other, directed to the application between users of the irrigation sector. Finally, one of the suggestions gathered was suggested the insertion of cooperative games tied to the process of formation and training in water resources management for members of the CBHs, as required and improved their dialogue, respect and trust among the social sectors involved. / A água, sobretudo por ser um bem de uso comum, com reduzida disponibilidade atual no mundo, torna a sua alocação um dilema social que exige decisões e tornam seu gerenciamento racional absolutamente imprescindível. Esta tese surge do interesse em desenvolver proposição, com envolvimento dos agentes sociais da gestão participativa dos recursos hídricos do Estado do Ceará - Brasil. A metodologia se encontra compartimentada em três etapas: de coleta de dados secundários; a dos indicadores primários, que se propõe obter dados empíricos, com base: na participação em reuniões de alocação negociada da água, na aplicação de questionários, entrevistas e jogos cooperativos com membros de arena social e realização de experimento social; por fim, a fase de tratamento de informações e indicativos que integra, correlaciona e analisa as informações e os guias coletados em gabinete e campo. A consulta realizada, mediante aplicação dos questionários, junto aos membros integrantes dos 12 (doze) comitês de bacia hidrográfica do Estado do Ceará apontou como resultado a garantia futura de uso da água estocada em reservatório, em período de escassez, como sendo a principal motivação que estimula a tomada de atitudes racionais no uso da água. Os resultados da aplicação de jogos cooperativos trazem à tona a existência de fatores que interferem na tomada de decisão dos integrantes dos comitês de bacia hidrográficas. Com base no conjunto de dados levantados e das entrevistas realizadas, elaborou-se o “Mapa cognitivo agregado”, onde foram identificadas as estratégias que formam o caminho para o encontro de atributos passíveis de serem negociados para a alocação da água. Também se indicou resultado de experimento social realizado em comitê de bacia hidrográfica, onde se obteve dos membros integrantes a afirmação de que a exploração sustentável dos recursos hídricos, por parte dos setores usuários da água, é critério essencial para estabelecimento de ordem de preferência no uso das águas em situação de escassez. O critério inventariado, portanto, associado aos resultados da consulta realizada e do mapeamento cognitivo dos membros de comitês de bacia hidrográfica, se encontra em consonância com a proposta de alocação de água que, composta essencialmente por duas estratégias: a primeira, com suporte na participação social nas etapas de planejamento para elaboração dos cenários de operação dos sistemas de reservatórios, portanto, com ênfase no diálogo e no envolvimento da sociedade, e a outra, direcionada à aplicação entre usuários do setor da irrigação. Por fim, dentre as sugestões reunidas foi sugerida a inserção de jogos cooperativos atrelados ao processo de formação e capacitações em gestão dos recursos hídricos para os membros dos CBHs, como sendo necessários e passiveis de aperfeiçoar o diálogo, respeito e confiança entre os setores sociais envolvidos.

A interação existente entre a água superficial e subterrânea nas bacias hidrográficas faz necessário o gerenciamento conjunto de ambos os recursos. Nesse sentido, o Soil Moisture Model (SMM) e a ferramenta WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning system) foram utilizados para simular o sistema atual e avaliar os impactos do uso conjunto dos recursos hídricos superficial e subterrâneo nas bacias que abastecem o município de São Carlos, SP. O modelo foi calibrado com o objetivo de avaliar o comportamento das bacias no período de 1997-2007. Para a vazão mensal, as etapas de calibração e validação do WEAP geraram coeficientes de Nash-Sutcliffe e de porcentagem de viés considerados bons pela literatura. A robustez e facilidade de uso do modelo foram analisados, avaliando seu potencial como sistema de apoio a decisão. Também, foram gerados seis cenários futuros a partir da combinação de mudanças no uso do solo e aumento de demandas usando prioritariamente algum dos dois recursos. Nas simulações feitas para a década de 2030 não se apresentaram diferenças significativas com respeito a variável de uso do solo, contrastando com o comportamento variável da demanda. Os resultados indicaram que o município não apresenta deficiência na quantidade de água necessária para abastecer as demandas futuras, porém o rebaixamento pronunciados do nível estático do aquífero poderá produzir efeitos adversos na operação de poços existentes e no sistema hidrológico geral. / The interaction between surface and groundwater in river basins makes it necessary an integrated management of both resources. In this sense, the o Soil Moisture Model (SMM) and the WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning system) tool were used to simulate the current system and to evaluate the impacts of the joint use of surface and underground water resources in the basins that supply the city of São Carlos, SP. With the aim of evaluating the behavior of the basins in the period 1997 to 2007. For the monthly flow, the WEAP calibration and validation stages generated Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients and percentage of bias considered goods. The robustness and ease of use of the model were analyzed, evaluating its potential as a decision support system. The results of the simulations for the 2030s for six future scenarios did not show significant differences respect to the variable of land use, different from the behavior with the demand variable. The results indicated that the municipality does not present a deficiency in the quantity of water needed to supply the futures demands. However, the pronounced lowering of the static level of the aquifer could produce adverse effects on the operation of existing wells and the general hydrological system.