Open grassy environments in Africa have been key landscapes for the development and evolution of humans and our hominid ancestors for millions of years. These environments have not been static, however, as global climate changes have strongly shaped their nature and location over time. In the modern, at least 80 million people living in Sub-Saharan Africa rely on agriculture and pastoralism within the grasslands and savannas of the Sahel region alone for food security. Devastating droughts and associated famine in the region over the past several decades have highlighted this region’s potential vulnerability to future climate change. Wildfires play a unique and critical role in maintaining Africa’s grasslands and savannas, especially in the Sahel region. Emissions from these fires have additional ramifications for the Earth’s radiative balance and global cycles of carbon and nutrients. As populations in Africa rise over the coming century from ~1.3 billion to 4 billion people by 2100, increasing demand for food, rising temperatures, and highly uncertain changes in rainfall and wildfire patterns are poised to put the people and ecosystems of this region in jeopardy. In the face of potentially novel environmental conditions resulting from anthropogenic climate change, this research aims to better understand the long-term interconnections of climate, ecology, and human presence in Northwest Africa and how these linkages may vary under broad shifts in climate. Accurate projections of future climate and ecosystem change not only require the mechanistic understanding of climate forcings and climate-ecosystem interactions that can be gleaned from modern relationships, but also information about how these interactions may vary as a function of changes in the background climate state itself (on centennial to million year timescales). Highly spatially-resolved satellite measurements relevant for asking such questions only extend back a few decades and thus only provide a limited perspective on whether or not modern climate-ecosystem interactions are stationary through time. This thesis is focused on developing and applying paleoclimate reconstruction techniques to generate new records of hydroclimate, ecosystem structure, and fire activity in Northwest Africa over a broad set of time scales. These new records are used to assess the governing controls of climate variability and evaluate the evolution of climate-ecosystem interactions across a diversity of background climate states. We seek specifically to (1) improve our understanding of the natural climate forcings that dictate changes in Northwest African monsoon rainfall, (2) evaluate how changes in rainfall and other climate parameters––namely atmospheric CO₂ concentrations––together affect ecosystem distributions and compositions in Northwest Africa, (3) ground-truth the use of increasingly popular molecular proxies of fires applied to marine sediment archives, (4) assess the relative environmental and human controls on fires in Northwest African savannas over time, and (5) develop interpretive frameworks for understanding multiproxy records of environmental changes in Northwest Africa to draw conclusions about how climate-ecosystem interactions may have evolved over time. To address these goals, this dissertation is broken down into four chapters. The first two chapters focus on the orbital-scale to multimillion year forcings in the climate system that control the strength and tempo of the Northwest African monsoon and how these changes impact the distributions and compositions of ecosystems in the region over time. In both Chapters 1 and 2, we develop new reconstructions of hydroclimate using the hydrogen isotopic composition of plant-waxes and extraterrestrial 3He normalized dust fluxes from marine sediment core MD03-2705 taken off the coast of Mauritania along the Northwest African margin. We further reconstruct ecosystem change using the carbon isotopic composition of plant-waxes. Chapter 1 is centered on the late-Pleistocene while Chapter 2 takes a wider perspective and explores long-term trends in Northwest African hydroclimate and vegetation structure from the Pliocene to the late-Pleistocene. In the second half of this work, the focus is narrowed to center the role of fire in Northwest African savannas and how the nature of burning in this region has changed since the last glacial maximum. In Chapter 3, we use atmospheric back trajectory modeling and a transect of marine core sediments taken aboard the research vessels Vema and Conrad that spans the southern European to southern west African margin to test if molecular biomarkers of vegetation (plant-wax n-alkanes and pentacyclic triterpene methyl ethers) and fires (pyrosugars and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons) preserved in marine sediment archives capture modern distributions of ecosystems and biomass burning on the landscape. In Chapter 4, we generate new records of the fire history of Northwest Africa from the last glacial maximum to the late-Holocene from marine sediment core OCE 437-7 GC68. We compare the relative influences of changes in rainfall, ecosystem structure and human activities on fire across the most recent deglaciation and ‘Green Sahara’ period. From these new records, we are able to draw several conclusions. In Chapter 1 we find that the location, timing, and intensity of northwest African monsoon rainfall is controlled by low-latitude insolation gradients and that while increases in precipitation are associated with the expansion of grasslands into desert landscapes, changes in pCO2 predominantly drive the C3/C4 composition of savanna ecosystems. In Chapter 2 we observe that low latitude insolation gradients best explain both the tempo and amplitude of orbital scale variations in Northwest African rainfall over the last five million years, however strengthening sea surface temperature gradients in the Atlantic Ocean during the mid-Pleistocene likely led to a precipitous and sustained decline in monsoon strength ~900 thousand years ago independent of any change to orbital insolation forcing. Furthermore, changes in the relationship between rainfall and vegetation in Northwest Africa can be used to track changes in the northward extent of ecosystems, augmenting previous pollen-based reconstructions, which together show shifts in ecosystem distributions over the Plio-Pleistocene likely related to changes in ecosystem disturbances and climate-vegetation interactions. In Chapter 3 we show that by accounting for the effects of long-range transport of biomarkers, good agreement is found between ecosystem composition and biomass burning patterns on the African continent and the distribution of terrestrial plant and fire biomarkers in marine core top sediments. This provides strong justification for applying molecular indicators of fires to the paleorecord. In Chapter 4, we show that rainfall is the dominant natural control on the amount of biomass burned in Northwest African savannas, but increased human presence and land-use change during the mid- to late-Holocene likely fundamentally changed the fire regime of Northwest Africa to this day.

Climate change is leading to in an increase in frequency and severity of wildfires, which in turn can result in the formation of runoff-initiated post-wildfire debris flows. This type of debris flows is, like most debris flows, triggered by heavy precipitation events. Debris flows have the potential to cause much damage, and therefore it is important to analyse when and where the risk of these flows exists. This study aims to identify shared characteristics of basins that experienced post-wildfire debris flows in order to improve future risk analyses regarding such flows. These characteristics were studied through the analysis of 42 basins in 10 burned areas across western North America, which experienced a total of 67 post-wildfire debris flows between 2000 and 2018. Literature research and existing databases revealed the bedrock, soil texture and the timing of the flows compared to the wildfires. Spatial analysis using ArcMap allowed for the analysis of the burn severity of the basins, the hypsometry of the basins, and the mean slope of the basins. Analysis of these characteristics revealed the importance of the hypsometric integral, the soil texture, and the mean slope angle of the basins. In general, the hypsometric integral tends to fall between 0.50 and 0.60 and only soils with a coarse texture were identified for the basins. The mean slope angle of the basins is commonly between 25-30o, with a wider range of slopes being able to generate debris flows shortly after the fire. If multiple basins in a small area are burned, those with steeper slope angles have a higher potential to generate debris flows, while basins with steeper slopes do not have a higher risk on large regional scales. In order to generate post-wildfire debris flows the basin also needs to be burned at a large extent at low to medium severity, resulting in an extensive and strong water-repellent layer required to generate the runoff that is needed to generate a debris flow. Seasonal wetting during winters and drying of the soil during summers can reduce or enhance runoff respectively as well. As a result, post-wildfire debris flows occur mostly during the late summer months shortly after a wildfire when precipitation is increasing through summer storms, or a year later when the soil is dried and primed during the summer followed by such a summer storm. Fires during winter and thus outside the traditional wildfire season can lead to post-wildfire debris flows during winter as well due to the strength of the fresh water-repellent layer. Climate change which will lead to more fires during late autumn and winter months can thereby result in post-wildfire debris flows during winter, rather than only during the summer months following wildfires in the traditional fire season. / Jordskred uppstår när en sammanhängande jordmassa kommer i snabb rörelse. Det är en typ av naturolyckor som kan skada både infrastruktur och människor. Sannolikheten att ett jordskred inträffar ökar efter skogsbränder. Samtidigt kan klimatförändringar leda till en ökning av skogsbränder vilket i sin tur kan leda till en ökad risk för jordskred i framtiden. Syftet med det här projektet är att bidra till bedömningen av risken av jordskred till följd av skogsbänder i västra Nordamerika och att identifiera andra områden som också har en stor risk att drabbs av skred efter skogsbränder genom att identifiera riskfaktorer. Under projektets gång skapades en databas med områden där jordskred inträffade efter skogsbränder i västra Nordamerika. Den vetenskapliga litteraturen visade några egenskaper av skred och områdena, t.ex. när branden och skredet hände, vilken berggrund finns i området och texturen av jordarten i området. Dessutom användandes GIS (Geographical Information System) med satellitbilder och DEM (Digital Elevation models), som visade information om brandskador samt de geomorfologiska karaktärerna av områden. Resultaten visade att formationen av jordskred kräver omfattande låga till måttliga brandskador som resulterar i ett starkt vattenavvisande jordlager. Detta jordlager minskar infiltrationskapaciteten av jorden och resulterar i mer ytavrinning vilket orsakar skred till följd av brand. Även en grov textur av jordlagret är viktig eftersom den också bidrar till ett starkt vattenavvisande jordlager. Dessutom kan askpartiklar bli fångade in i stora porer i jord med en grov textur vilket minskar infiltrationskapaciteten och ökar ytavrinningen. Det finns alltså två krav för att ett jordskred ska inträffa efter en skogsbrand: i) omfattande låga-måttliga brandskador, och ii) en grov textur av jorden. Vidare finns det några ytterligare egenskaper som ökar risken för skred efter skogsbränder om de två kraven är uppfyllda. Den hypsometriska integralen (ett sätt att uttrycka hypsometrin av en dal) ligger oftast mellan 0.50-0.60 vilket är normal för en geomorfologiskt sett mogna område. Dessutom hade de flesta områdena i projektet en medellutning mellan 25o och 30o. Dock fanns det även tillfällen där värdena låg utanför dessa intervaller. Därför kan dessa värden i sig inte användas som riskfaktorer, utan borde de även kombineras med de övriga egenskaperna som beskrivs i den här undersökningen. Det är också relevant att veta när jordskred inträffar till följd av skogsbränder. Resultaten visade att skred kan hända strax efter skogsbränder i slutet av sommaren när det finns kraftigt regn. Det är då som det vattenavvisande jordlagret är som starkast. Det vattenavvisande lagret minskar i styrkan under året, men det är också möjligt att det inträffar ett jordskred under sommaren året efter en skogsbrand. Då är jorden torr i slutet av sommaren när kraftigt regn inträffar efter torra månader. Torr jorden bidrar även till en minskad infiltrationskapacitet. Regn i vinter gör jorden blöt vilket ökar infiltrationskapaciteten av jorden. Dessutom sker det även skogsbränder utanför den traditionella skogsbrandsäsongen nuförtiden, t.ex. tidigt i vintern. I så fall kan jordskred också inträffa under samma vinter strax efter skogsbranden, därför att det vattenavvisande jordlagret som skapas i branden fortfarande är starkt då. Som nämnts tidigare finns det en riskprofil som kan användas för att identifiera områden som har en hög risk för jordskred efter skogsbränder, men möjligheten att ett jordskred inträffar under vintern istället för (slutet av) sommaren bör även iakttas. Risken växer nämligen i samband med klimatförändringar som leder till mer skogsbränder; inte bara under sommaren, utan även under vintern.

An accurate understanding of a population’s risk perception is important, as risk perception can influence attitudes to new policies and recommended health behaviours. There is a lack of research on the possible impact that Swedish news media could have on the Swedish population’s risk perception of natural hazards. This thesis has aimed to investigate the relationship between newspaper coverage and risk perception of natural hazards by quantifying newspaper coverage and comparing it with survey data on perceived likelihood and impact of several hazards (floods, droughts, wildfires, epidemics, and climate change). Direct experience which in this thesis meant direct involvement with a hazard was shown to be the main cause of increased risk perception for floods, droughts and wildfire, while no significant impact of newspaper coverage could be found. Survey data and newspaper coverage did however suggest that there is a significant impact on epidemics risk perception. Risk perception of climate change was found to be the hazard most tied to direct experience, but it was also correlated with newspaper coverage. This means that there is a possibility of newspaper coverage impacting risk perception of climate change. Climate change was also found to be mentioned frequently in connection with the other hazards, this could reinforce the idea that climate change intensifies the other hazards and thus increases risk perception. / En korrekt förståelse för en befolknings riskuppfattning är viktig, eftersom riskuppfattning kan påverka attityder till nya policyer och rekommenderade hälsobeteenden. Det saknas forskning om den möjliga inverkan som svenska nyhetsmedier kan ha på den svenska befolkningens riskuppfattning av naturkatastrofer. Denna uppsats ämnar att undersöka förhållandet mellan tidningstäckning och risk uppfattning av naturkatastrofer genom att kvantifiera mängden artiklar som nämner olika naturkatastrofer och jämföra dem med undersökningsdata om upplevd sannolikhet för inverkan av flera naturkatastrofer (översvämningar, torka, bränder, epidemier och klimatförändringar) ämnar denna uppsats att undersöka förhållandet mellan tidningstäckning och risk uppfattning. Resultaten från den här undersökningen visar att direkta erfarenheter av översvämningar, torka och skogsbränder var den främsta orsaken till ökad riskuppfattning, medan ingen betydande inverkan av tidningsnyheter kunde hittas. Undersökningsdata och tidningstäckning tyder dock på att det finns en betydande inverkan på riskuppfattningen av epidemier. Klimatförändringar visade sig vara den risk som var mest knuten till erfarenhet men, korrelerade också med mängden tidningsnyheter. Detta innebär att det är möjligt för tidningsartiklar att påverka riskuppfattningen av klimatförändringar. Klimatförändringar nämndes också ofta i samband med de andra farorna, vilket kan ha förstärkt idén att klimatförändringar intensifierar de andra naturkatastroferna och därmed ökat riskuppfattningen.

Wildfires destroy large tracts of veld and forest land every year in South Africa. These fires can be devastating, resulting in loss of human lives, the destruction of property and the loss of income, for example the forest fire in the Sabie district in Mpumalanga in 2007 which destroyed about 7% of South Africa’s forested areas. There are frequently legal disputes with respect to the origin of wildfires, the extent of the fire and the land cover destroyed by the fires. The forensic capabilities of remote sensing in detecting and analysing post-wildfire characteristics have become an important contribution towards solving such legal disputes and in understanding wildfire characteristics. These post fire products can be used as evidence in court cases. Most of the time those court cases came up a few years after the fire event. By then, little or no evidence can be found on the terrain where the fire was. Remote sensing archives provide a reliable source of data that can be used to analyse these events after these long intervals. The objective of this project is to highlight the methods used to generate these post-wildfire analysis products. / Environmental Sciences / M. Sc. (Environmental Science)

Wildfires destroy large tracts of veld and forest land every year in South Africa. These fires can be devastating, resulting in loss of human lives, the destruction of property and the loss of income, for example the forest fire in the Sabie district in Mpumalanga in 2007 which destroyed about 7% of South Africa’s forested areas. There are frequently legal disputes with respect to the origin of wildfires, the extent of the fire and the land cover destroyed by the fires. The forensic capabilities of remote sensing in detecting and analysing post-wildfire characteristics have become an important contribution towards solving such legal disputes and in understanding wildfire characteristics. These post fire products can be used as evidence in court cases. Most of the time those court cases came up a few years after the fire event. By then, little or no evidence can be found on the terrain where the fire was. Remote sensing archives provide a reliable source of data that can be used to analyse these events after these long intervals. The objective of this project is to highlight the methods used to generate these post-wildfire analysis products. / Environmental Sciences / M. Sc. (Environmental Science)

Zhao Yibin. / Thesis submitted in: November 2001. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2002. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 103-111). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / Abstract --- p.I / ACKNOWLEDGEMENT --- p.V / Table of Contents --- p.VIII / List of Tables --- p.IX / List of Figures --- p.X / Chapter Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter 1.1 --- Research background and problem statement --- p.1 / Chapter 1.2 --- Research objectives --- p.6 / Chapter 1.3 --- Methodology --- p.7 / Chapter 1.4 --- Significance of this study --- p.9 / Chapter 1.5 --- Organization of the thesis --- p.10 / Chapter Chapter 2 --- "Literature review: wildfire behavior simulation, Web GIS and public participation GIS" --- p.11 / Chapter 2.1 --- Introduction --- p.11 / Chapter 2.2 --- Investigating wildfire behavior --- p.12 / Chapter 2.3 --- Modeling wildfire with GIS --- p.20 / Chapter 2.4 --- Emergence of the Web GIS --- p.27 / Chapter 2.5 --- New agenda from public participation --- p.28 / Chapter 2.6 --- Summary --- p.31 / Chapter Chapter 3 --- System design: requirements analysis and feasibility analysis --- p.34 / Chapter 3.1 --- Introduction --- p.34 / Chapter 3.2 --- Analysis of functions requirement --- p.35 / Chapter 3.3 --- A host of solutions --- p.41 / Chapter 3.4 --- Summary --- p.52 / Chapter Chapter 4 --- Simulating the wildfire --- p.53 / Chapter 4.1 --- Physical Setting of experiment area and data preparation --- p.53 / Chapter 4.2 --- Adaptation and formularization of the Rothermel's fire behavior model --- p.60 / Chapter 4.3 --- Fire spreading algorithm --- p.66 / Chapter 4.4 --- Defining wildfire with Object Oriented Design (OOD) method --- p.71 / Chapter 4.5 --- Summary --- p.74 / Chapter Chapter 5 --- Participation process with interactive tools empowered by IT technologies --- p.76 / Chapter 5.1 --- Comprehending the problem in an interactive way --- p.76 / Chapter 5.2 --- Performing wildfire simulation --- p.81 / Chapter 5.3 --- Submitting of end users comments --- p.84 / Chapter 5.4 --- Discussion bulletin board --- p.94 / Chapter 5.5 --- Summary --- p.96 / Chapter Chapter 6 --- Discussions and conclusions --- p.98 / Chapter 6.1 --- Research limitations and discussions --- p.98 / Chapter 6.2 --- Conclusions --- p.99 / BIBLIOGRAPHY --- p.103 / Appendix 1 .Defining MapService with ArcXML --- p.112 / Appendix 2.Defining MapNotes with ArcXML --- p.112

Forest Park, a 5,000 acre heavily-forested park within the city limits of Portland, Oregon was selected as the study area for performing a fire simulation analysis. A well-documented fire swept over a large area of the park in 1951, and provides both direct inputs, including the ignition point, and context for the present day fire simulations. The goal of the research was two fold. First, determine the difference between small area simulations using standard and custom surface fuel models. Second, determine if fire simulation can be an effective tool in assessing fire danger and behavior in a wildland-urban interface environment like Forest Park.

Disturbances are ubiquitous features of most northern forest ecosystems. The subsequent response of plant assemblages on both short (resistance or not) and long term (recolonization or not) will depend on a number of factors operating at several spatial scales. In boreal forest ecosystems, bryophyte assemblages are a conspicuous and species rich group of plants for which these processes are poorly understood. Using a combination of experimental and observational approaches this thesis explores these questions for closed-canopy bryophyte assemblages in relation to a) microtopography (both for the initial and long-term response), b) environmental constrains during post-logging succession and c) disturbance type. My results clearly show that the shade and shelter provided by microtopographic surface structures can increase survival rates of bryophytes following clear-cut logging by decreasing mortality from microclimatic stress and mechanical disturbance. Following clear-cutting, the recovery of forest floor and dead wood living bryophytes seems to be a relatively steady and progressive process without any major bottleneck episodes in the young or semi-mature forest stages with much of the pre-disturbance composition recovered after 50 years. Although boulders were found to increase the initial survival on clear-cuts and hence increase disturbance resistance, we found no evidence that boulders influenced the subsequent recolonization process. Lastly, strong compositional dissimilarities were found in young forests (40 years) following clear-cut logging, wildfire and insect outbreak, indicating divergent trajectories to occur following different disturbances. Hence, early seral stages of forest ecosystems regenerating after natural disturbances seem to compliment young managed forests in maintaining landscape level diversity. / At the time of the doctoral defense, the following papers were unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper 2: Submitted. Paper 3: Manuscript. Paper 4: Manuscript.

In this study, I addressed how a large-scale wildfire affected a prairie arthropod community in southern Alberta, Canada. First, I looked at the general effects of disturbance on the arthropod community. Second, I addressed how processes such as competition and secondary succession may have affected diversity in this arthropod community. Third, I determined how the arthropod community trophic structure was regulated. Results showed that the effect of disturbance on arthropods varies greatly by taxa. Factors, such as site, year, distance from disturbance edge, as well as the disturbance itself, were important in determing the abudance, biomass, richness, and diversity of the arthropod community. There were strong year-to-year differences hat exceeded the disturbance effects. Results showed that the processess behind the intermediate disturbance hypothesis, succession and competition are not detectable in this arthropod community. This arthropod community was likely regulated in a bottom-up manner, in which herbivores ultimately control the abundance of predators and parasitoids. / x, 97 leaves : ill. ; 28 cm.

Wildfire processes in Canada are expected to change as a result of climate change. Predictive modeling of wildfire occurrence and susceptibility requires knowledge of ignition expectations and landscape conditions leading to burn. This research examines and quantifies the spatial and temporal patterns of wildfire across Canada with focus on wildfire occurrence and national scale drivers of susceptibility. Baseline ignition expectations and trends are identified and used to create unique fire ignition regimes, assess anthropogenic influence on ignitions, and determine regions with anomalously high ignitions. The aspatial and spatial characteristics of land cover were characterized for pre- and post-fire landscapes. These included land cover composition, configuration, and abiotic covariates. Temporal trends in forest pattern following ignition are examined and national scale drivers of wildfire susceptibility determined. Fire ignition regimes and anomalous ignition regions provide spatially explicit outputs for exploring ignition expectation in Canada. Wildfire was identified to burn mainly in coniferous forests with little fragmentation. Fragmentation increased after wildfire and regeneration of pre-fire forest pattern took 20 years. Additionally, anthropogenic proximity positively influenced ignition expectation, ignition trend, and wildfire susceptibility. This research provides broad scale methods to assess wildfire occurrence and susceptibility across Canada and will facilitate understanding of changing wildfire processes in the future. Additionally, this research highlights the importance of anthropogenic activity on natural fire processes.