Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento CientÃfico e TecnolÃgico / Este trabalho estima a elasticidade produto-capital pÃblico para economia brasileira no perÃodo entre 1950 a 2005, considerando a ocorrÃncia de uma possÃvel mudanÃa estrutural provocada pela acentuada reduÃÃo da taxa de investimento do setor pÃblico nas ultimas dÃcadas. A quebra estrutural na relaÃÃo de longo prazo entre as variÃveis à acomodada por uma mudanÃa no componente determinÃstico do vetor de cointegraÃÃo. O teste para instabilidade do vetor de cointegraÃÃo confirma a ocorrÃncia desta mudanÃa. Com base neste resultado estima-se o vetor de cointegraÃÃo por MÃnimos Quadrados DinÃmicos permitindo uma mudanÃa estrutural no componente determinÃstico seguindo a metodologia proposta por Carrion-i-Silvestre e Sansà (2005). As elasticidades produto capital pÃblico estimadas sÃo inferiores as usualmente encontradas na literatura brasileira. / This paper estimates the elasticity product-public capital to the Brazilian economy during the period 1950 to 2005, considering the possible occurrence of a structural change caused by the sharp reduction in public sector investment in recent decades. The structural break in long-term relationship between variables is accommodated by a change in the deterministic component of the cointegrating vector. The test for instability in the cointegrating vector confirms the occurrence of this change. Based on this result it is estimated the cointegration vector Dynamic Least Squares allowing a structural change in the deterministic component following the methodology proposed by Carrion-i-Silvestre and Sans (2005). The elasticities product-public capital estimated are lower than those usually found in the literature.

O setor agropecuário brasileiro experimentou nas últimas décadas elevados ganhos de produtividade, fato esse que tem sido amplamente debatido na literatura econômica sobre o tema. O crescimento da produtividade agropecuária permitiu um amplo processo de liberação de mão de obra para as atividades urbanas e, especialmente, para o setor de serviços, possibilitando a ocorrência de mudança estrutural com redução da importância do setor primário na economia brasileira. A presente dissertação tem, dessa forma, dois objetivos, constituindo-se o primeiro a implementação de um modelo dinâmico de equilíbrio geral ajustado para refletir o padrão de mudança estrutural observado no Brasil entre 1981 e 2013. A análise insere-se na visão de que o crescimento da produtividade do setor primário é condição necessária para a mudança estrutural das economias ao longo de seu desenvolvimento, diferenciando-se, portanto, da abordagem que atribui o processo de mudança estrutural à presença de diferentes elasticidade-renda no consumo dos bens produzidos por cada setor. O segundo objetivo é utilizar o modelo calibrado para examinar um cenário hipotético em que a produtividade agropecuária comportar-se-ia como o observado para a economia brasileira, avaliando suas implicações sobre as participações de três setores (agropecuária, indústria e serviços) no valor adicionado total a preços correntes e no emprego. Especificamente, o modelo utilizado foi inspirado em Verma (2012) que constitui, por sua vez, uma adaptação empírica do modelo teórico proposto por Ngai e Pissarides (2007), e tem como mecanismo para a ocorrência de mudança estrutural o crescimento diferenciado da produtividade total dos fatores (PTF) em cada setor da economia. O modelo base foi calibrado a partir de dados observados e revisão bibliográfica, e solucionado numericamente incorporando as séries de crescimento das PTFs dos três setores, obtidas por decomposição do crescimento à la Solow (1957), e reproduziu de maneira adequada o nível e, principalmente, tendência das participações no valor adicionado. A partir dos resultados obtidos, a simulação realizada sugeriu que em um cenário de baixo crescimento da produtividade agropecuária, a mão de obra do setor não teria sido liberada na magnitude em que efetivamente ocorreu, implicando a manutenção da participação deste setor no emprego e no valor adicionado, às custas do setor de serviços que haveria, então, passado por uma desaceleração do crescimento de suas participações nestas duas medidas de mudança estrutural. / In the last decades, Brazilian agriculture has experienced high productivity gains, as discussed by many studies in the economic literature. The agricultural productivity growth has allowed for a wide transfer of labor from agriculture to urban activities, especially to services sector, enabling the structural change process by reducing the primary sector share in Brazilian economy. This thesis has two objectives; the first one is the implementation of a dynamic general equilibrium model which capture the Brazilian structural change patterns between 1981 and 2013. The second objective is to simulate an alternative scenario in which agricultural productivity would have grown at the same rate as Brazilian economy\'s productivity has grown. More specifically, the model adopted was based on Verma (2012), which is an empirical adaptation of the theoretical model developed by Ngai and Pissarides (2007), which assumes that differences in sectoral total factor productivity (TFP) growth are the main mechanism for structural change occurrence. The baseline model was numerically solved after calibration with real data and literature review, and obtainment of sectoral TFP growth series by growth accounting à la Solow (1957), and it reproduces robustly the level and trend of the three sectors\' value added shares in the economy. The alternative scenario\'s simulation suggests that in the presence of low agricultural productivity growth, the labor would not be released from agriculture at the same magnitude, what would imply in a lower growth of service sector\'s shares in the stylized measures of structural change.

Esta dissertação procura analisar a evolução dos setores com maior potencial de inovações intersetoriais na economia brasileira a partir dos anos 2000. Nesse sentido, estabelecemos o referencial teórico estruturalista como ponto de partida para a compreensão da dinâmica de acumulação de capital em economias periféricas. Com isso, buscamos argumentar que a abordagem ainda tem relevância para a compreensão das leis de movimento das economias subdesenvolvidas. Esse referencial é complementado com os aportes neoschumpeterianos com o intuito de ponderar a importância dos setores com inovações horizontais para contornar as restrições estruturais ao crescimento das estruturas periféricas. A partir desse referencial teórico, analisamos dados sobre a estrutura desses setores. A Relação Anual de Informações Sociais apresenta dados sobre a evolução do emprego e características do mercado de trabalho. A Pesquisa Industrial Anual fornece informações sobre estrutura financeira e alguns indicadores de produtividade, ao passo que a base de dados do Aliceweb fornece informações sobre os fluxos de comércio exterior. Dessa forma, é possível avaliar o desempenho desses setores e sua significância na matriz produtiva nacional. / This dissertation analyzes the evolution of the sectors with bigger potential to generate intersectoral innovations in the Brazilian economy in the 2000’s. The theoretical approach is based in the structuralist contributions to the understanding of the dynamics of capital accumulation in peripheral economies. In this sense we argument that this approach still has relevance to comprehend the essential laws of motion in underdeveloped economies. It is complemented by the neoschumpeterian contributions to incorporate the importance of the sectors with horizontal innovations to overcome the structural restrictions inherent to peripheral economies. Based on this theoretical perspective, we analyze data about the performance of these sectors. The Relação Annual de Informações Sociais’ database presents information about the evolution of employment e characteristics of the labor market. The Pesquisa Industrial Anual has data about the financial structure and productivity indicators while the Aliceweb database provides information about the commercial relations. In this way, it is possible to evaluate the performance of these sectors and their significance in the national productive matrix.

O setor ovino do Rio Grande do Sul e Uruguai foi afetado por períodos de progressos e crises que modificaram as estratégias e a dinâmica do agronegócio da ovinocultura. A transformação do mercado ovino, seus desequilíbrios e suas mudanças, expõem uma rica realidade empírica para uma análise a partir da Economia Evolucionária. Assim, o objetivo da tese foi comparar a trajetória de mudança histórica, econômica e institucional da produção ovina do Rio Grande do Sul e Uruguai e avaliar o impacto da crise internacional da lã na configuração do setor. A proposta metodológica da tese baseou-se no uso de dados primários e secundários para analisar e comparar um processo dinâmico, a fim de compreender o passado, caracterizar o presente e projetar o futuro do setor ovino - características centrais de um processo evolucionário. A análise da evolução histórica, produtiva e mudança estrutural na atividade ovina do Rio Grande do Sul e Uruguai tiveram um caráter descritivo e explicativo, por meio de técnicas de pesquisa bibliográfica e pelo uso de técnicas estatísticas de séries temporais, na estimação de modelos de regressão linear e regressão semilogarítmica. A caracterização da ovinocultura utilizou-se de uma pesquisa de campo, com aplicação de questionário semiestruturado em uma amostra de 120 produtores do Rio Grande do Sul e 80 produtores do Uruguai. A análise dos dados seguiu técnicas da estatística descritiva e o uso de testes de hipóteses paramétricos. A análise de projeção futura da atividade no Rio Grande do Sul e Uruguai partiu da construção e estimação de duas classes de modelos de regressão logísticos: modelo econômico e institucional. A estimação de modelos de regressão linear e semilogarítmica comprovaram a mudança estrutural para as variáveis de rebanho ovino, produção de lã e produção de carne ovina das duas regiões, tendo como referência a crise internacional dos preços da lã em 1990/1991. Evidenciaram-se similaridades no perfil socioeconômico, produtivo e institucional dos ovinocultores amostrados do Rio Grande do Sul e Uruguai. Os dados primários indicaram que a atividade ovina é desenvolvida nas mais variadas estruturas fundiárias. O rebanho ovino dos estabelecimentos rurais apresenta tamanho diverso, sendo a bovinocultura de corte a principal atividade desenvolvida de forma integrada. Constatou-se que as instituições da ovinocultura apresentam dimensão conectiva - o contexto passado do setor moldou a situação presente, que por sua vez, irá formar as instituições do futuro, em um processo “hereditário”, análogo aos genes da biologia e aos processos de path dependence e causação cumulativa. Os resultados dos modelos logísticos demonstraram que variáveis estritamente produtivas e de ordem econômica não se relacionam significativamente com a pretensão de aumento da produção ovina no Rio Grande do Sul e Uruguai. Em contrapartida, o modelo institucional estimado foi significativo (P<0,01), com variáveis significativas de envolvimento organizacional, motivação pelo lucro e idade do produtor (P<0,05). Os resultados confirmaram o domínio da Economia Evolucionária no estudo da dinâmica econômica, baseada na análise das mudanças estruturais e institucionais. O estudo da evolução da produção ovina no Rio Grande do Sul e Uruguai demonstrou a possibilidade da aplicação de pressupostos econômicos evolucionários, buscando, além de compreender o fenômeno, estimular o fortalecimento desta aproximação teórico-empírica em diversos temas da economia rural. / The sheep production of Rio Grande do Sul and Uruguay has experienced periods of growth and decline that affected the strategy of the agribusiness. This dynamic market provides a rich setting for an analysis based on evolutionary economics. The objective of this thesis is to compare the historical, economic and institutional changes in the sheep production in Rio Grande do Sul and Uruguay and to evaluate the impact of the international crises in the production of wool in the organization of this sector. The methodological premise of this thesis is the use of primary and secondary data to analyze and compare a dynamic process. The goal is to understand the past, characterize the present, and project the future of the sheep production – the key elements of an evolutionary process. The analysis of historical, productive and structural change in the sheep production in Rio Grande do Sul and Uruguay was descriptive in nature, including a literature review and several statistical techniques such as time series analysis, linear regression and semi-logarithmic regression. A field study with a semi-structured questionnaire and a sample of 120 farmers in Rio Grande do Sul and 80 farmers in Uruguay was conducted to characterize the sheep production. The empirical analysis used descriptive statistical techniques and the parametric test of hypotheses. The market projection of the future in the sheep production was based in the estimation of two types of logistic regression models: an economic model and an institutional model. The linear and semi-logarithmic regression models showed a structural change in the dependent variables, such as sheep flock, wool, and meat production in the two regions. Moreover, there were similarities in the socio-economic, productive and institutional profile of the sampled farmers in Rio Grande do Sul and Uruguay. The primary data indicated that the sheep production is developed in different types of farms area, being a source of income as well as subsistence. The size of the sheep flock across the different farms was diverse, reflecting the variance in the size of the properties, and the beef cattle was the main activity developed in an integrated form. Regarding the institutional profile, the institutions of environment of sheep production establishments presented a connective dimension – the past shaped the present, which in turn will shape the future, reflecting a hereditary process similar to the genes in biology and the path dependence processes. The results from the logistic models indicated that the dependent variables related strictly to economic production were not significantly correlated with the willingness to increase the ovine production in Rio Grande do Sul and Uruguay. In contrast, the institutional model was significant (P <.01). The institutional variables related to farmers’ organizational involvement, motivation towards profit and age of farmer were significant (P <.05). Based on the analysis of structural and institutional changes, the results confirmed the dominance of evolutionary economics in the study of the economic dynamic. The present study provided an opportunity to apply the principles of evolutionary economics to understand the sheep production in Rio Grande do Sul and Uruguay, which can be used to explore several other topics in the context of agricultural economics.

Traditional theories of industrial restructuring assign the most explanatory weight of the structural change phenomenon to increasing pressures via globalization and falling trade barriers. This thesis offers a new model of thinking about industrial restructuring that includes multiple stressors. The thesis focuses on three main drivers of structural change: market pressures, environmental regulation and changes in land use and land pricing, using two case studies of leather and footwear industrial clusters in Mexico, located in the cities of León and Guadalajara. Evidence of multiple drivers of structural change is found in the dissertation. Furthermore, responses to restructuring drivers in León and Guadalajara are found to be substantially different. Firms in the leather and footwear cluster in León have implemented countervailing strategies such as price competition, government lobbying, and more recently, investment in socio-economic research (competitiveness) projects. However, firms in the leather and footwear cluster in Guadalajara focused on a specific, high-end target market. At the larger, urban scale, footwear and its allied industries in the city of León resisted change and have tried to remain in operation while the city of Guadalajara has focused on a diversification strategy, attracting new (arguably more technically advanced) industries. This thesis offers empirical and theoretical advances. Empirically, it applies a firm demographics approach to the study of industrial clusters under multiple stressors. This approach has not been previously used on Mexican data. Theoretically, it demonstrates that future analyses of industrial complexes’ structural change can be strengthened through the use of an integrated assessment framework investigating the effect of multiple stressors (market forces, land pricing, technical change, environmental regulations, and consumer preferences) on industrial restructuring. / Science, Faculty of / Resources, Environment and Sustainability (IRES), Institute for / Graduate

This paper reviews tests for structural change in linear regression models from the generalized fluctuation test framework as well as from the F test (Chow test) framework. It introduces a unified approach for implementing these tests and presents how these ideas have been realized in an R package called strucchange. Enhancing the standard significance test approach the package contains methods to fit, plot and test empirical fluctuation processes (like CUSUM, MOSUM and estimates-based processes) and to compute, plot and test sequences of F statistics with the supF, aveF and expF test. Thus, it makes powerful tools available to display information about structural changes in regression relationships and to assess their significance. Furthermore, it is described how incoming data can be monitored.

Der Beitrag beschreibt die Voraussetzungen des gelungenen Strukturwandels mit der Bündelung der Potentiale von Bodenschätzen, Geographie, Wirtschaft und Bevölkerung. Das Ruhrrevier in seiner heutigen Form ist im besonderen Maße Ausdruck der montanindustriellen Entwicklung. Diese wiederum hängt maßgeblich von der Ausbildung der Steinkohlenlagerstätte ab. So sind es die geologischen Schichten der Region, die diese nachhaltig gestaltet haben. Die Steinkohlenlagerstätte des Ruhrreviers entwickelte sich bereits vor über 300 Mio. Jahren unter subtropischen Bedingungen. Meeresnahe Ablagerungen sind Ursprung des „schwarzen Goldes“, der Steinkohle zwischen Ruhr und Lippe. Eine wechselvolle Geschichte führt über Gebirgsbildungen, Fort- und Rückschreitung der Küstenlinie sowie eiszeitlicher und fluviatiler Sedimentationen zur Gestaltung von Geologie und Morphologie im Ruhrrevier. Die heutige Raumstruktur des Ruhrgebiets entstand somit aus der Geomorphologie des Karbons mit den sich herausgebildeten Flüssen Ruhr, Emscher und Lippe und den sich daran orientierenden mittelalterlichen Städten und Siedlungen. Mit den Auswirkungen der industriellen Revolution auf Basis Kohle, Eisen und Stahl veränderte sich die Region von einem landwirtschaftlich geprägten Raum hin zum heutigen Ballungsraum mit über 5 Millionen Einwohnern. Von den ehemals über 400 Zechen im Ruhrrevier existierten im Jahr 2015 noch zwei fördernde Bergwerke. Das Bergwerk Auguste Victoria wurde Ende 2015 eingestellt, das Bergwerk Prosper Haniel wird Ende 2018 die Förderung einstellen. Damit endet der subventionierte Steinkohlebergbau in Deutschland aus ökonomischen Gründen. Die Lagerstätte im Ruhrrevier ist jedoch bei weitem noch nicht erschöpft. Die Beendigung des Bergbaues führte zu einem Strukturwandel, der in den 1960er Jahren begann und heute noch nicht sein Ende gefunden hat. Er hat eine industrielle, stabile Raumstruktur mit neuem Leben zu füllen. Zwischen Ruhr und Lippe sowie am Niederrhein haben 53 eigenständige Städte und Gemeinde das historische Erbe aufzunehmen und gemeinsam die regionalen Stärken zu fördern. Die großen Flächenstilllegungen wurdenin den prosperierenden Zonen zu modernen Stadtquartieren mit unterschiedlichsten Nutzungen entwickelt oder haben in den Zwischenräume die Landschaften und Freizeitgebiete vergrößert. / The article describes the prerequisites for a successful structural change in the Ruhr area during the last 60 years. Via the regional bundling of the potential in raw materials, geography, economy and population the region managed the termination of the coal and steel industry. More than 50 communities have to deal with the historic legacy and they have to promote the local features. The cessation of the intensive coal-mining phase requires creative ideas, intensive communication, coordination of a lot of stakeholders to ensure a development in the direction of new stable structures.

Crime prevention and community safety are issues that the Swedish government constantly have to struggle with. With different working conditions, priorities and budgets for each region and municipality, such tasks could turn into colossal challenges if the right solutions aren’t taken. In the last couple of years the government has together with the police and crime-preventing council (Brottsförebyggande rådet) issued a number of publications encouraging the municipal councils to cooperate with police, governmental bodies and local civil actors. The motive being that crime-preventive reforms and measures only work if all actors act like a coherent body, from planning to implementation of policies. These publications have also advocated the use of several crime-preventive methods when planning such reforms. The goal with this essay is to examine the incorporated crime-prevention methods such as the control theory and structural change theory. Questions to be answered are also about the measures taken and levels of cooperation in the two municipalities of Örebro and Karlstad. This has been done through the lens of the qualitative method because we were interested in studying the subject on different levels. To do so we have performed four interviews with one municipal commissioner from each municipality, one security coordinator in Karlstad and a local area police in Örebro. We have also studied several documents related to the empirical material. The conclusion has been that there are similarities regarding the usage of crime-prevention methods but that the implementation of measures differs regarding community safety and long-term effects to provide a safe environment for the citizens

This thesis investigates what factors affect union organization and, to some degree, union activity in the face of declining union density in the majority of Western countries. Union structures have been changing in recent decades, not only in terms of declining membership but also because women and white-collar workers are becoming a more stable part of the membership base, whereas previously highly organized groups, such as blue-collar workers, are in decline. The point of departure for this thesis is that union density changes must be understood on several different levels. Thus, we must investigate changing union density in light of changing institutional settings, changing labour market structures and changing norms and values on the individual level. The thesis consists of three empirical studies investigating union density changes and union activity in Sweden, and an introductory chapter that develops the theoretical and empirical (historical) background. The empirical studies investigate: (1) whether and how the influence of various aspects of class and ideology on union organization have changed over time, (2) the effect of structural change on union density increase and decline, and(3) what factors influence different attitudes towards industrial action among Swedish employees. Results show that union density decline in Sweden since the mid-1990s cannot be explained by any forceful shifts in the labour market structure or individuals’ opinions and/or attitudes related to trade unions to any significant degree. Union density decline in Sweden is of a general nature. However, an increasing divergence in union density across various categories of employees, including, e.g., private-sector vs. public-sector employees, young vs. older employees, employees of foreign origin vs. employees of Swedish origin, and the atypically employed vs. employees with standardized employment, is observed. Moreover, previously strong predictors of union membership, including class identity, ideology, sector of employment and type of employment contract, are in decline, but they still influence union organization and attitudes towards industrial action. / <p>At the time of the doctoral defense, the following papers were unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper 2: Submitted. Paper 3: Submitted.</p>

This thesis studies the impact of labor markets on economic growth in both developed and developing countries and China's urbanization, by formalizing dual labor market characteristics and China's Hukou system in two theoretical models. The first is a unified growth model in an open economy environment that captures dual labor market characteristics. The mechanism involves economic growth driven by capital accumulation in the country with Lewisian labor market leading to increasing labor participation at a near constant wage. The model shows that surplus labor plays a critical role in explaining different economic growth paths and structural changes in developing and developed countries, such as China and the US. The second is a dynamic general equilibrium model with endogenous rural-urban migration to analyze the provision of rural and urban government services in China, with special emphasis on the role of the household registration (Hukou) system in shaping its urbanization process. It argues that China’s urban bias policy, which is enabled by the Hukou system restricting rural-urban migration, did not necessarily reduce economic efficiency, rather it might have only raised urban welfare at the expense of rural residents. As the Hukou system also ties people to particular geographical locations, our model argues that China's continuous bias towards coastal and big cities has started to cause economic inefficiency as well as inequality. It suggests that progressive Hukou reform reducing barriers to cross-region migration would improve economic efficiency and welfare.