In this study we made an investigation on the transformation of economic structure of two border city regions, Saarbrücken and Copenhagen. The motivation for a comparative analysis is that they have similar industrial background. Both city regions were dynamic in the first half of the 20th century however in the second half they slowed down and gradually lost some of their industrial base. This decline of industry also brought some transformation of the economic structure. To some extent they followed similar trends such as decline of industry and rise of service sector. However there are differences as well, like the diversification of economy, dependence on industry, potential for attracting the creative class and so on. Another reason for comparison is that they are both border regions and have a potential to integrate with the other side of the border. Saarbrücken has increased its interaction with the French region Lorraine and the opening of the High Speed Railway East to Paris is likely to contribute to this interaction and may lead to integration. Copenhagen, too, has been increasing its interaction with Malmo and Lund on the Swedish side. Especially after the opening of the Öresund Bridge in 2000 this interaction even got accelerated and seems to evolve towards integration. We have discussed this cross-border interaction and tried to identify to what extend these regions integrated with the other side of the border. Furthermore we tried to reveal the similarities and the differences in this integration processes in both border regions. As theoretical approach we have chosen Kondratieff Wave Theory, Porter’s Cluster Theory and Florida’s Creative Class Theory as these theories seem to explain the developments in the two regions quite well. The Wave theory makes up the theoretical framework as it reflects a global shift in the western economies especially in the old industrial zones. The two other theories points out to more specific developments in two regions such as emergence of high tech sectors as a result of creative class. Our overall conclusion is that the two regions have similarities in their transformation but also differences. Every region has its own transformation story as some local elements are involved in the process. It is not possible to have identical developments; however regions can induce similar development with the more dynamic regions in case they create similar conditions for new sectors. And it is increasingly easier to do so as the globalisation makes the production factors more mobile. / Jan-Philipp Exner Hauptstrasse 84 66127 Saarbrücken-Klarenthal Fon: +49 6898 32459 Mail: jan-exner@web.de -------------------------------------- ERGIN YUCEL +46735623450 www.eyucel.com

Structural changes in society have often been related to social problems such as crime, alcoholism and social elimination. In this analysis of the development of social elimination in Sweden during the period 1860-1975, which is mainly based on official data, it is demonstrated that there is not always a causal relationship between structural change and such social problems. If structural changes lead to social problems or not depend on whether the structural changes occur according to a "Budding" or an "Ex­pansion" model. The historical period in which a rapid structural change followed the "Budding" model closely was the time right before and after the turn of the century in which the final leap into the industrial society occured. This was a period characterized by an increasing number of industries, communities and organizations. During this period the structural changes increased the legal economic opportunities, strengthened the social and cultural integration as well as the informal social control within the working class. This period was also a period with decreasing human malad­justment symptoms and social elimination. After World War II a new period of rapid structural changes occured. But now the development followed closely to the "Expansion" model. This was a period when different subsystems in society became larger, more centra­lized specialized and difficult to survey. The consequences were not only more individual freedom and higher standards of living but also many individuals experienced a great deal of social stress together with a decreasing social and cultural integration. Increasing opportunities for crime and drugs to­gether with a decreasing social control increased the risks for social mal­adjustment for many people. This latter period can also be described as a period of rapidly increasing human maladjustment symptoms and increasing social elimination of the socially maladjusted. / digitalisering@umu

This dissertation deals with the economic change of the countries of late industrialization, comparing the Brazilian case to the South Korean in two periods of time. The first period is from the 1950s to the 1980s, in which both countries were technologically catching-up with the more developed countries, and a second period goes from the 1980s until the 2010 decade, when Brazil falling-behind technological, and South Korea teamed up with the developed countries and start to lead the technological development process. For this, a neoschumpeterian and structuralist theoretical framework was used and as well the concepts of Innovation Systems and Economic Change as nuclear concepts. The economic complexity tools, Product Space and the Economic Complexity Index (ECI) was used to observe the economic trajectories. In this approach trade variables are used as a proxy to understand the different economic and technological performances of the countries. The Economic Complexity Index (ECI) shows that South Korea since the beginning of the period of analysis gradually joins with the developed countries, appearing in the second period of analysis among the countries with the most complex economies in the world. The ECI reveal, corroborating with the theoretical framework adopted, that during the period of technological catching-up (1955-1980), Brazil gradually gained better positions, however, from the 1980s forward it successively lost positions in the economic complexity ranking. While the Product Space illustrates the structural change in the economies of 1962 to 1981, when the structural change in the Brazilian and South Korean economy was significant, diversifying and sophisticating the export agenda, from 1981 to 2014 in the South Korean economy, structural change continues to occur substantially increasing production sophistication, but the Brazilian economic structure does not observe any relevant changes, the diversification remained similar to 1981 and without the sophistication of production. It was verified that the structural changes promoted by both countries led to the trajectory of technological catching-up, however, while South Korea continued to promote structural change by adapting its development model, and moved forward in the technological development, while Brazil abandoning its already exhausted model of import substitution without substitution by another model, resulting in the end of the promotion of structural changes and the trajectory of technological falling-behind. Structural analysis through the approach of economic complexity makes it possible to understand why South Korea has moved on and Brazil has lagged behind. / Esta dissertação trata da mudança econômica dos países de industrialização tardia, comparando o caso brasileiro ao sul-coreano em dois períodos de tempo. O primeiro a partir da década de 1950 até a década de 1980, no qual ambos os países se emparelhavam tecnologicamente (catching-up) com países mais desenvolvidos, e um segundo período estabelecido a partir da década de 1980 até a década de 2010, em que o Brasil ficou para trás tecnologicamente (falling-behind), e a Coreia do Sul se emparelhou e passou a liderar o processo de desenvolvimento tecnológico (forging-ahead). Para isso, valeu-se de um referencial teórico neoschumpeteriano e estruturalista e utilizou os conceitos Sistemas de Inovação e Mudança Econômica como conceitos nucleares. Foi utilizado o ferramental da complexidade econômica, Product Space e o Índice de Complexidade Econômica (ICE), para observação das trajetórias, nessa abordagem as variáveis de comércio são usadas como proxy para compreender os diferentes desempenhos econômicos e tecnológicos dos países. O Índice de Complexidade Econômica (ICE) evidência que a Coreia do Sul desde o início do período de análise passa gradualmente a se emparelhar com os países desenvolvidos, figurando, no segundo período de análise, entre os países com as economias mais complexas do mundo. O ICE mostra, corroborando com o referencial teórico adotado, que durante o período de catching-up tecnológico brasileiro (1955-1980), o Brasil ganhou paulatinamente melhores posições, no entanto, a partir da década de 1980, passa sucessivamente a perder posições no ranking da complexidade econômica. Enquanto o Product Space ilustra a mudança estrutural nas economias de 1962 a 1981, quando a mudança estrutural na economia brasileira e sul-coreana foi significativa, diversificando e sofisticando a pauta de exportação, já no período de 1981 a 2014, na economia sul-coreana a mudança estrutural continua ocorrendo, aumentando substancialmente a sofisticação produtiva, mas na estrutura econômica brasileira não se observa mudanças relevantes, manteve-se a diversificação similar a 1981 e sem a sofisticação da produção. Constatou-se que as mudanças estruturais promovidas por ambos os países levaram a trajetória de catching-up tecnológico, no entanto, enquanto a Coreia do Sul continuou promovendo mudança estrutural da economia através da adaptação do seu modelo de desenvolvimento, e seguiu em frente no desenvolvimento tecnológico, já o Brasil abandona o seu já esgotado modelo de substituição de importações sem a substituição por um outro modelo, resultando no fim da promoção das mudanças estruturais e na trajetória de falling-behind tecnológico. A análise estrutural por meio da abordagem da complexidade econômica possibilita compreender porque a Coreia do Sul seguiu em frente e o Brasil ficou para trás.

nÃo hà / This paper analyzes the impact of the program Your Money Note Valley, on the collection of ICMS of the State of Ceara from an analysis of the collection of the Retail Sector before and after the entry into force of that program, using the Chow test to examine whether the time series of Revenue Tribute in Ceara shows a structural change. Created in December 2004 (Law 13,508) by the Finance Secretary of the State of Ceara, The Program Your Money Note Valley aimed at combating tax evasion and encourages citizens and businesses to conduct transactions with the use of the invoice. The work makes reference to improving the tax authorities of tax revenue efficiency due to the Education Fiscal and Fiscal Policies to Combat Tax Evasion and Evasion. It is noteworthy the role and interest of the democratic rule of law in the regulatory process and collection of taxes to meet the social demands Increase the stock of economic capital, social and human through the exercise of citizenship and social responsibility shared between state and citizens to improve the training of effective improvement tax collection and enforcement authority of public resources and social control. The results show that there is a structural break in month / year, indicating that the mentioned program is producing the desired results in terms of increased revenue and consequent awareness of Cearaâs citizens. / Este trabalho analisa o impacto do Programa Sua Nota Vale Dinheiro sobre a arrecadaÃÃo do ICMS do Estado do Cearà a partir de uma anÃlise da arrecadaÃÃo do ICMS do Setor Varejista antes e depois da entrada em vigor do referido Programa, utilizando-se como ferramenta metodolÃgica o Teste de Chow para analisar se a sÃrie temporal da Receita do Tributo no Cearà apresenta uma mudanÃa estrutural. Criado em dezembro de 2004 (Lei 13.508/2004), pela Secretaria da Fazenda do Estado do CearÃ, o Programa Sua Nota Vale Dinheiro visa combater a sonegaÃÃo de impostos e estimular cidadÃos e empresas a realizarem operaÃÃes com a utilizaÃÃo da nota fiscal. O trabalho faz referÃncia à melhoria da eficiÃncia arrecadatÃria dos fiscos em decorrÃncia da EducaÃÃo Fiscal e das PolÃticas do Combate à SonegaÃÃo e EvasÃo Fiscal. Ressalta-se o papel e o interesse do Estado DemocrÃtico de Direito no processo de regulamentaÃÃo e arrecadaÃÃo dos tributos para atender Ãs demandas sociais, aumentar o estoque do capital econÃmico, social e humano por meio do exercÃcio da cidadania e da responsabilidade social compartilhada entre Estado e CidadÃos para a melhoria efetiva da arrecadaÃÃo e a aplicaÃÃo competente dos recursos pÃblicos e o seu controle social. Os resultados demonstram que hà uma quebra estrutural em julho/2005, indicando que o mencionado Programa vem produzindo os resultados desejados em termos de aumento da arrecadaÃÃo e consequente conscientizaÃÃo do cidadÃo cearense.

CoordenaÃÃo de AperfeiÃoamento de Pessoal de NÃvel Superior / A avaliaÃÃo dos efeitos da inflaÃÃo na Variabilidade de PreÃos Relativos (VPR) à uma fonte de subsÃdios aos formuladores de polÃtica econÃmica no que se refere à tomada de aÃÃes preventivas contra possÃveis pressÃes inflacionÃrias, minimizando os custos em termos de variaÃÃo do produto e do emprego. Dessa forma, este trabalho visa verificar empiricamente o impacto da adoÃÃo de metas para inflaÃÃo (MI) na relaÃÃo entre inflaÃÃo e VPR na economia brasileira, durante o perÃodo de 1995 a 2012. Seguindo evidÃncias da literatura, foram estimados modelos onde tal relaÃÃo assume a forma linear com quebras estruturais e a forma quadrÃtica a fim de testar qual deles melhor se ajusta aos dados brasileiros. Baseado em Bai e Perron (1998, 2003), os modelos de regressÃo foram estimados tratando as datas de quebras como variÃveis desconhecidas, obtidas endogenamente, em julho de 1998 e novembro de 2002. Para o perÃodo analisado os resultados nÃo corroboram as evidÃncias do formato de U da relaÃÃo entre inflaÃÃo e VPR, sendo que o efeito marginal da inflaÃÃo sobre a VPR à positivo, embora sua magnitude seja reduzida apÃs a adoÃÃo das metas e ainda mais apÃs o ganho de credibilidade referente ao cumprimento das mesmas. Adicionalmente observou-se que a relaÃÃo entre a inflaÃÃo esperada e a VPR se enfraqueceu apÃs a adoÃÃo das metas, enquanto a inflaÃÃo nÃo esperada somente se tornou significativa a partir da adoÃÃo desta polÃtica. / The assessment of the inflation effects on the Relative Price Variability (RPV) is a source of subsidies for economic policymakers when it comes to taking preventive measures against possible inflationary pressures, thus minimizing the costs in terms of product variation and employment. Once exposed that, this work aims to empirically investigate the effects of inflation targeting (IT) adoption on the relationship between inflation and RPV in the Brazilian economy from 1995 to 2012. Based on the literature, two models were estimated in order to test which one best fits in the Brazilian data. In the first one, the relationship takes the linear shape, while in the other it is U-shaped. Following Bai and Perron (1998, 2003), the regression models were estimated treating the dates of breaks as unknown variable, which were endogenously obtained in July of 1998 and November of 2002. In the period analyzed, the results do not corroborate the evidence of the U-shaped relation between inflation and RPV, once the marginal effect of inflation on the RPV is positive, although its magnitude is reduced after the adopting of IT and even more after the adoption of measures that gave credibility to comply with them. Additionally it was observed that the expected inflation had its effect reduced on RPV after the IT adoption, while the unexpected inflation only becomes significant after the adoption of this policy.

Este trabalho analisa a importância das variáveis macroeconômicas fundamentais na explicação do diferencial de juros dos países periféricos europeus depois de 2009. Mostramos que, após a Alemanha rejeitar o resgate dos títulos gregos, os investidores não só passaram a exigir maiores rentabilidades dos países periféricos com maior endividamento em relação ao PIB como também passaram a utilizar outras medidas macroeconômicas fundamentais para atribuir preço aos títulos soberanos: o crescimento real do PIB e a taxa efetiva de câmbio. Também verificamos que mudanças na volatilidade do S&P medidas pelo índice Vix passaram a ser significativas na formação de preço dos títulos após 2010, demonstrando que os investidores consideraram os países periféricos europeus menos seguros após essa decisão de a Alemanha não resgatar os títulos gregos. / This work investigates the importance of macroeconomic fundamentals in explaining the increase in the peripheral European sovereign spreads after 2009. After Germany refused to bail-out Greece, we show that investors not only increased the peripheral European sovereign spreads explained by the debt to GDP ratio, but also started pricing risk by observing additional macroeconomic fundamentals: the real gdp growth rate and the real effective exchange rate. We also show that changes in the Vix are priced only after 2010, demonstrating that investors considered European peripheral countries less safe after Germany decided not to bail-out Greece.

Orientador: Fernando Sarti / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-24T15:04:17Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Spinola_DaniloSartorello_M.pdf: 1792503 bytes, checksum: 9033028e07749b1ad5c7e06cd4403eda (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014 / Resumo: O objetivo deste trabalho é apresentar um modelo econômico de corte neokaleckiano com parâmetros de estrutura produtiva, simulá-lo para a economia brasileira e discutir seus resultados à luz de discussões teóricas. No primeiro capítulo do trabalho, serão mapeadas visões acerca das funções de algumas variáveis macroeconômicas sobre sistemas econômicos. Entre tais visões destacar-se-ão as tradições ortodoxa, novo-desenvolvimentista e estruturalista. Em seguida, será introduzido o modelo neokaleckiano de crescimento e distribuição. O objetivo final será analisar possibilidades e impactos da aplicação do modelo neokaleckiano para a economia brasileira para o ano de 2011. Com tal objetivo, será utilizado o modelo descrito por Cimoli, Lima e Porcile (2013) para o curto prazo, que acrescenta aos modelos neokaleckianos tradicionais elementos de estrutura produtiva e mudança estrutural. Os parâmetros do modelo serão calibrados a partir de dados empíricos e calculados por uma metodologia proposta no segundo capítulo. Por fim, serão feitas simulações e interpretados os resultados a partir das visões inicialmente discutidas no primeiro capítulo / Abstract: The main objective of this work is to present a neokaleckian model with productive structure parameters and to simulate it to the Brazilian economy. Firstly, I analyze distinct theories on the relationship between macroeconomic variables in an economic system. Secondly, I introduce the neokaleckian model of growth and distribution. Using the the neokaleckian model calibrated to the Brazilian economy for year 2011, I simulate the possible impacts on distinct variables. For this, I use the model described by Cimoli, Lima e Porcile (2013) to the short run. This model adds some elements of production structure and structural change to the traditional neokaleckian models. The parameters were calibrated from empirical data and calculated by a methodology proposed in the second chapter. Finally, simulations are made and the results are interpreted using the macroeconomic visions described in the first chapter / Mestrado / Teoria Economica / Mestre em Ciências Econômicas

One fundamental point of departure for this thesis is the importance of addressing all three basic economic research questions: what is produced, with what and for whom and including them in the discussion regarding long-term macroeconomic performance. This could also be stated as that a consistent historical national accounts approach where both aspects of production and distribution are included can significantly enhance the research on macroeconomic historical issues. Built upon this foundation, the objective of this thesis is twofold. To begin with, the objective includes the broadening of the empirical database of the Swedish historical national accounts (SHNA) with accounts for the process involving the horizontal distribution of income. The second objective of this thesis consists of conducting analyses of the Swedish macroeconomic devel­opment using the extended database of the SHNA. An important aspect of the analytical objective involves the exploration of methods that had not widely been applied in Swedish economic historical research. Thus, great emphasis is placed on the methodology used in the analyses of macroeconomic development. These two main objectives forni the disposition of the thesis. The first empirical part consists of work with income accounts in the SHNA. This work has resulted in the establishment of a set of income accounts concur­ring with the procedure recommended in the contemporary national accounting system. In the second part of the thesis, selected macroeconomic issues are examined using the extended SHNA database. The first analysis consists of a closer examination of the presence of periodization patterns in Swedish growth and structural change. In this chapter an analysis based on structural time series models is applied to the SHNA series. The main results of this chapter is that the time series on growth and structural change reveal a pattern that not unconditionally is consistent with the prevailing periodisation pattern recognised in Swedish economic-historical research. Instead, the development pattern reveals features found in international research. The next analysis is concerned with the role of specific institutions for contributing to the slow-down in growth that occurred from the late 1960s and throughout the 1970s and 1980s. In this chapter the importance of the corporate tax system, investment funds and the public pension funds for the efficiency of the resource alloca­tion process is examined. The hypothesis that is examined is that these institutional arrangements altered the distribution of income in such a way that the investment allocation was disturbed and thereby leading to ineffi­ciencies that affected long-term growth negatively. This hypothesis is supported by empirical evidence on changes in the income distribution and changes in long-term rates of growth and structural change. Thus, the investigated institutional arrangements to a certain extent had a negative effect on the Swedish economic per­formance during the 1960s to the 1980s. In the final analytical chapter, the objective is mainly methodological. Here, the focus is on the potential application of CGE-models as a tool for examining Swedish macroeconomic history. A fairly straightforward CGE-model is formulated for the period 1910 to 1930 and estimated using the broadened SHNA. The predic­tions of the model are evaluated against the actual historical development in order to assess the performance of the model. As the model formulated in this chapter generates accurate prediction of the main macroeconomic indicators, it is subsequently used in a counterfactual analysis of the impact of total factor productivity growth on the overall growth performance. In summary, the thesis demonstrates that much can be achieved in the research on the Swedish macroeco­nomic development by utilizing new theoretical approaches and applying state of the art analysis methods as a complement to the structural analytical research that has been conducted previously. However, much research is still required, especially on the improvement of the macroeconomic database where one priority is to create detailed and consistent input-output tables and social accounting matrices. / digitalisering@umu

Orientador: Plínio Soares de Arruda Sampaio Júnior / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-27T05:12:18Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Henriques_TatianaFerreira_M.pdf: 3707431 bytes, checksum: 244a39a8027bfe6cef7e340dbc5c4ca0 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015 / Resumo: A presente dissertação tem como objetivo estudar o significado do ciclo recente (2003-2013) de expansão de preços das commodities primárias para a América Latina e Caribe, no que diz respeito à inserção comercial externa, tendo em vista os marcos teóricos do (sub)desenvolvimento. Para isso, de um lado, são resgatadas algumas das principais contribuições do pensamento crítico originário latino-americano, especialmente de Raúl Prebisch e Celso Furtado; e, de outro lado, são apontados elementos concretos para qualificar o debate teórico recente acerca da centralidade dos recursos naturais ao desenvolvimento da região: a visão atual da CEPAL sintetizada no paradigma do cambio estructural frente às críticas do reforço da dependência primário-exportadora e do subdesenvolvimento. As evidências empíricas foram obtidas a partir de dados de comércio (SIGCI - CEPAL e UN Comtrade) da região com o mundo e com os seus principais parceiros: Estados Unidos, União Europeia, Mercosul, Japão e, com destaque, a China. De forma generalizada, o que se notou nas economias latino-americanas foi um reforço da especialização exportadora em torno de (algumas poucas) commodities primárias e um rápido incremento da importação de manufaturados de maior intensidade tecnológica. E, especialmente no caso do comércio com a China, uma tendência à inserção externa fortemente concentrada e assimétrica, em valor e tipos de bens. Isto é, um quadro que impõe à América Latina uma posição cada vez mais subordinada na divisão internacional do trabalho e que tende a afastá-la ainda mais dos rumos da superação do subdesenvolvimento: ao invés do caminho ao cambio estructural, um aprofundamento do processo de reversão neocolonial em marcha / Abstract: The present dissertation aims to investigate the implications of the recent primary commodities¿ price expansion cycle (2003-2013) for Latin America and the Caribbean. This study set out to understand how this cycle affected the external trade insertion of the region given the theoretical framework of (under)development. In order to reach the results, in one hand, some of the main contributions to the critical debate in Latin America are recovered, especially Raúl Prebisch and Celso Furtado. In the other hand, concrete evidences are provided to support the theoretical debate on the centrality of natural resources for the regional development: ECLAC¿s current view synthetized within the "structural change" paradigm in contrast to criticism against the strengthening of the primary-export dependence and underdevelopment. Empirical evidences were obtained through foreign trade data analysis (SIGCI - ECLAC and UN Comtrade) of the region with its most important trade partners: United States of America, European Union, Mercosur, Japan and most notably China. The findings suggest that overall Latin-American economies enhanced their export specialization around (few) primary commodities in face to a rapid increase in the import levels of higher technology-intensive manufactured goods. Furthermore, especially regarding trade with China, there is a clear tendency to a highly concentrated and asymmetric external insertion in value and sorts of goods. This setting imposes an increasingly subordinated position to Latin America in the context of the international division of labor, and tends to push the region further away from overcoming its underdevelopment. Instead of directing towards the "structural change" there is a deepening of the neo colonial reversion under way / Mestrado / Teoria Economica / Mestra em Ciências Econômicas

Der KOMKIS Report fasst die Ergebnisse einer Kurzstudie zusammen, die methodisch mit Hilfe eines teilstandardisierten Leitfadeninterviews mit Experten zu Smart Metering im kommunalen Kontext geführt wurde. Ziel war es, explorativ erste Einschätzungen für den aktuell erfolgenden Smart Meter Rollout für Kommunen in Sachsen zu erhalten. Ei-nerseits ist das Ergebnis, dass ein erneuter Strukturwandel in der Stromwirtschaft be-vorsteht, der jedoch aus Sicht der Experten noch offen für die einzelnen Marktakteure ist. Andererseits ist klar, dass sowohl das kommunale Energiemanagement als auch die kommunalen öffentlichen Unternehmen in der Energiewirtschaft mit neuen Chancen und Risiken konfrontiert sind, die es zu gestalten gilt.