Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / The present work aims to analyze the market risk management copula-GARCH model approach efficiency. To that we use data referent to daily prices of North American, German, Australian, Brazilian, Hong Kong and South African markets, considering the period from July 2002 to June 2012, totalizing ten years of observations. Results allow to conclude that there are volatility clusters along series during sub-prime and Eurozone debt crises. Developed markets present lower general oscillation levels than emerging ones. There was gradual increment in analyzed markets pair to pair dynamic correlation levels, with general levels between 0.3 and 0.6. Computed dynamic VaRs followed returns evolution, not exceeding the expect number of violations, unlike static VaR estimates. Developed markets present rising on optimal hedge ratios starting on sub-prime crisis, while for emerging markets many ratios maintain at same levels. Static ratios did not follow markets evolution. It is identified predominance of the Student t copula on risk and return relationships. However it is not possible to infer existence of an explicit association. Structural change tests indicated breaks in volatility at sub-prime crisis begin, while for correlations there is not homogeneity for breaks or dates. There are patterns on participations which are not followed by markets composed portfolio static weights. During all sample period the dynamic portfolio volatility was less than static one, especially in turbulent periods, with reductions up to 50%. Tests reveal that volatility obtained with Copula-GARCH based strategy is less than those referent to static and dynamic DCC-GARCH approaches. / O presente trabalho visa analisar a eficiência da abordagem de gestão de risco de mercado baseada no modelo Cópula-GARCH. Para tanto são usados dados referentes às cotações diárias dos mercados Norte Americano, Alemão, Australiano, Brasileiro, Honconguês e Sul Africano, considerando o período referente à Julho de 2002 até Junho de 2012, totalizando dez anos de observações. Os resultados permitem concluir que existem agrupamentos de volatilidade ao longo das séries durante as crises do sub-prime e da dívida Europeia. Mercados desenvolvidos apresentam menores níveis gerais de oscilação do que emergentes. Houve incremento gradual no nível de correlação dinâmica par a par dos mercados analisados, com níveis gerais entre 0,3 e 0,6. VaRs dinâmicos computados acompanharam a evolução dos retornos, não excedendo o número esperado de violações, ao contrário das estimativas de VaR estáticas. Mercados desenvolvidos apresentam aumento na razão ótima de hedge a partir da crise do sub-prime, enquanto para os mercados emergentes muitas razões ótimas mantiveram-se nos mesmos patamares. Razões estáticas não acompanharam a evolução dos mercados. É identificado predomínio da cópula t de Student no relacionamento entre risco e retorno. Todavia não é possível inferir a existência de uma associação explícita. Os testes de mudança estrutural indicaram quebras nas volatilidades no início da crise do sub-prime, enquanto para correlações não há homogeneidade de quebras nem de datas. Existem padrões nas participações que não são acompanhadas pelos pesos estáticos dos ativos na composição da carteira construída. Durante todo o período amostral a volatilidade do portfolio dinâmico foi menor que a do estático, especialmente em períodos de maior turbulência, com reduções de até 50%. Testes revelam que a volatilidade obtida com estratégia baseada no modelo Cópula-GARCH é menor que aquelas referentes às abordagens estática e dinâmica efetuada através do modelo DCC-GARCH.

In old industrial regions traces from historical mining and production of iron and steel have become a valuable resource in developing a tourism industry and other experience-oriented industries in the post-industrial society. The so called Experience Industry became a buzz-word in regional development programs during the 2000´s. The region of Bergslagen in the middle of Sweden is a good example of this structural change in economy which has been going on since the crisis of the steel industry in the middle of the 1970´s. In the 1980’s, the region was seen as one of the most depressed areas in Sweden, together with the sparsely populated north. Because of that, cultural heritage has been promoted to strengthen regional identity in Bergslagen. Strengthening regional identity is still a matter in regional development in the region, but today efforts are more concentrated on commercial use and packaging of heritage as experience in order to create an attractive image of Bergslagen. Statistical data shows that the regional labour market is changing. During the 1990s and early 2000s employment in the Experience Economy in Bergslagen has increased by almost 30 percent. The emerging labour force is in many ways different from the traditional patterns on the regional labour market. Traditionally marginalized group, such as women, young people and immigrants are well represented. But they are often low educated, low paid and part-time employed. On the other hand we also find a growing well educated and well paid group of employees. They are often in-migrants or commuters from places outside the region. Campaigns to promote Experience Industries on the local level are common in many places in the region. Local campaigns tend to focus on tourism and the commercial use of the typical industrial heritage associated with Bergslagen. However, the regional identity is often considered a problem due to the negative image of Bergslagen which where formed after the crisis for the steel industry. Although there is a tendency towards a more positive approach to Bergslagen, developers and politicians often still claim that they rather use other local and regional identities in place marketing than being a place in Bergslagen.

This thesis consists of four self-contained papers on job turnover, productivity and state- local finance. Paper [I] deals with the determinants of the rate of job turnover defined as the change in distribution of employment between and within industries in Swedish manufacturing. The rate of inter-industry job turnover is driven by the dispersion of profit changes among industries. Shifts in international competitiveness among industries seem to play a central role in the explanation of this pattern. The rate of intra-industry job turnover has been higher in industries with many small plants, low profit margins and high import penetration. Paper [II] analyzes the impact of openness on total factor productivity (TFP) growth. Using Swedish industry level data the results show that economically integrated industries tend to be more engaged in research and development (R&D) and have more entry and exit activity than other industries. The domestic R&D intensity does not contribute to the TFP growth rate. Instead, the results imply that openness to international markets, which helps facilitate technology spillovers, has a significant impact on the growth rate. There is also some evidence suggesting that producers exiting the market are less productive, implying that such exits will increase the average productivity of the industry concerned. The purpose of Paper [III] is to design and implement a test of whether the external effect from tax base sharing among local and regional governments is internalized via the intergovernmental transfer system. The test is based on the observation that if the external effect is internalized, an increase in the income tax rate at one level of government will induce the other level to reduce its income tax rate by the corresponding amount, leaving the effective tax rate unchanged. By using panel data for the Swedish local and regional public sectors, we estimate the reaction function for the local income tax rate. The results imply that an increase in the regional income tax rate induces the municipalities in the region to decrease their income tax rates. In addition, we are able to reject the null hypothesis that the external effect from tax base sharing is internalized. Paper [IV] concerns risk-sharing, in terms of how the central government smooths personal income among municipalities via the tax and transfer systems. Using Swedish panel data, the results show that the national tax and transfer systems mitigate an adverse shock to income of one krona so that disposable income falls by 67 öre, on average. However, there are large differences across regions, where the effect on disposable income varies between 32 and 78 öre in the krona. / digitalisering@umu

The Swedish model is perceived as a successful framework for combining rapid labor market adjustment with low inequality. Formulated by Gösta Rehn and Rudolf Meidner and implemented from the 1950s, it has been associated with the peak in economic restructuring and interregional migration during the 1960s. However, there is little empirical evidence for this. This thesis consists of an introduction and four essays. It explores three aspects of the model from a long-run perspective: interregional migration, wage dispersion and labor market policy. Essay I uses new data to track interregional migration rates in the postwar period (1945-1985). The results show that the responsiveness of interregional migration to local labor market conditions remained stable over time; it was neither higher during the 1960s nor lower when migration declined after 1970. Essay II employs a regression-decomposition framework to analyze the evolution of wage dispersion. The results suggest that wage dispersion was stable from centralized bargaining’s introduction in 1956 to the late 1960s. Afterwards, there was a rapid decline, likely because of solidaristic bargaining. Essay III contrasts the implementation of the active labor market policy to regional policy. Following a decisive shift around 1970, the focus on north to south mobility was replaced with policies to stimulate northern employment. Declining rural support for the Social Democrats and electoral competition from the Center Party caused this shift. Finally, Essay IV is a case study about mobility subsidy usage in Västernorrland County using sources on relocation allowances from 1965, 1970 and 1975. The results indicate that in the 1960s there was strong selection into the program by young persons with good labor market prospects. However, the program’s use did not change after the regional policy shift in the early 1970s. The collective results suggest that the policies associated with the Swedish model were minor for economic restructuring patterns. The migrations of the 1960s and the decline in regional disruptions after 1970 should instead be explained by studying the consequences of structural changes, how regions were progressively affected differently and the possible role that government policies played in directing demand for labor across space.

Master of Agribusiness / Department of Agricultural Economics / Arlo Biere / The investors I am representing would like to know if they can be successful in the seed industry. They have certain skills and abilities along with industry experience that provides them with certain advantages that would allow them to succeed in the industry. The thesis or study will provide them with a detailed study of the possibilities and the challenges that are before them. To gain insight into positioning a firm in the industry, one must find a tool to help us to discover the answers to the question. I will use "Strategic Visioning in Cascade", this model outlines area of interest such as; a strategic overview, a value proposition, a market analysis, a functional analysis, financial projection and exit strategy in its total. The focus of the study will provide insight into the value proposition and market analysis. The value proposition will follow Michael Porter's Competitive Strategy analogy of cost leadership, differentiation and focus strategies. The market analysis will follow Thompson and Strickland's seven questions that lead to understanding of the selected industry.

La dynamique d'ajustement structurel dans le secteur laitier en France est l'une des plus fortes de tous les secteurs agricoles avec des rythmes particulièrement élevés de disparition des exploitations et de croissance de la taille moyenne par exploitation. Cette dynamique est hétérogène dans l'espace, les régions les plus touchées sont celles où la densité laitière est faible à l'origine, celles qui résistent sont celles où la densité est élevée et où un tissu industriel est bien développé. Ces mouvements ont eu lieu malgré une politique agricole qui a cherché, au travers de multiples instruments (quota laitier, soutien des prix, aides directes…), à limiter ces mouvements et à maintenir la production laitière sur une grande partie du territoire français. Les modifications à venir de ces instruments risquent de modifier le paysage laitier jusqu'ici connu, et ainsi d'affecter la localisation et la structure des exploitations laitières. Dans ce contexte, l'objectif principal de cette thèse est d'analyser les déterminants de la croissance et de la localisation des exploitations laitières, d'identifier quels sont ceux qui renforcent la croissance et l'agglomération des exploitations et ceux qui ont tendance à limiter cette croissance et à disperser les exploitations et la production. Pour ce faire, nous avons dans un premier temps, estimé, en utilisant la méthode de chaînes de Markov, l'impact de certains facteurs économiques et politiques, sur les changements de taille des exploitations laitières. Dans un deuxième temps, à l'aide des méthodes d'économétrie spatiale, nous avons introduit une dimension spatiale à cette analyse afin d'appréhender les différences régionales (départementales) et de détecter d'éventuels effets d'agglomération. Dans un troisième temps, nous avons intégré de manière originale un modèle dynamique spatial récursif au modèle de Markov non-stationnaire afin de mesurer la distribution de la taille des exploitations selon la localisation en prenant en compte les interactions entre localisations. Ces différentes méthodes ont permis de montrer que les externalités positives liées à l'agglomération des exploitations laitières sont des facteurs prépondérants dans la détermination non seulement de la localisation mais aussi de la taille des exploitations laitières. Les externalités pécuniaires et les relations marchandes d'amont et d'aval ainsi que les prix des inputs et des outputs sont tout aussi importants dans la détermination de ces dynamiques. Les politiques agricoles, ici considérées au travers des aides directes du premier et second pilier, ont un impact assez faible dans l'ajustement structurel des exploitations laitières, seules les dotations à l'installation des jeunes s'avèrent très significatives et positivement liées à la localisation et la croissance des exploitations laitières. Les réglementations environnementales ont un effet plutôt dispersif des exploitations laitières et ceci particulièrement pour les grandes. Les activités concurrentes de l'activité laitière ont également un effet négatif sur la localisation des exploitations laitières mais cet effet s'estompe avec l'augmentation de la taille des exploitations. / Structural change in French dairy sector is one of the most important in agriculture with high rates of decreasing in the number of farms and increasing average farm size. This structural change is heterogeneous in space; the regions the most affected are those which are not traditional dairy producing. The regions which resist are the traditional dairy ones where dairying is highly developed. Agricultural policy instruments (dairy quota, price support, direct payments…) have affected those changes while trying to maintain the dairy production on a large part of France. The modifications to come of those instruments could modify the dairy farm location and structure. The aim of this thesis is to analyze the determinants of dairy farm growth and location, to identify which are those they foster growth and agglomeration of dairy farms and those they tend to slow down this growth and disperse dairy farms. To do so, we firstly estimate, using the non stationary Markov model, the impact of some economic and policy factors on the size farm distribution. Secondly, by means of the methods of spatial econometrics, we introduce a spatial dimension in this analysis to deal with regional differences and detect a possible effect of agglomeration externalities. Thirdly, we integrate a spatial dynamic recursive component to the non stationary Markov model. This allows us to model the effects of factors influencing the number, the size and the location of the dairy farms and to take account of interaction between locations. Those different methods allow us to show that agglomeration externalities are very important in the determination of the farm location as well as the growth of farm size. Pecuniary externalities and forward and backward linkages as well as the market prices are also determinant factors affecting farm structure and location. Agricultural policies, namely second pillar direct payments have a rather low impact in the structural adjustment of dairy farms. However subsidies to installation of young farmers are highly significant and positively related to farm growth and location. Environmental stringency seems to negatively affect dairy farm location and especially medium and large sized ones. Other livestock activities seem to compete with dairy farms especially smaller ones.

Cette thèse s’intéresse à la relation de long-terme entre la longévité et le développement économique. Dans le premier chapitre, j’analyse l’impact des dépenses de santé sur la croissance et le bien-être. Pour cela, j’étudie l’influence du taux d’imposition dans une économie avec temps de vie endogène (Chakraborty (2004)). Je détermine le taux d’imposition qui maximise le taux de croissance. Puis je m’intéresse aux variations du niveau de production dans l’état stationnaire par rapport au taux d’imposition. Enfin, j’étudie le taux d’imposition qui maximise le bien-être dans l’état stationnaire. Dans le second chapitre, j'analyse l’impact sur la croissance de dépenses de santé choisies par les agents. En effet, je développe un modèle de croissance endogène dans lequel les individus peuvent dépenser des ressources pour vivre plus longtemps dans leur période de retraite. Je donne une caractérisation complète de l’équilibre général dynamique puis je détermine l’impact sur la croissance des dépenses de santé. Enfin, le troisième chapitre étudie l’impact théorique du vieillissement sur l’allocation sectorielle des travailleurs. Je développe un modèle multi-sectoriel dans lequel j’examine les conséquences sur le revenu par travailleur et l’allocation sectorielle des travailleurs d’un choc de longévité et de fertilité. Je montre que contrairement aux modèles uni-sectoriels, le revenu n’est pas forcément monotone par rapport aux variables démographiques. Des chocs démographiques réalistes produisent des mouvements non-négligeables de travailleurs. / This dissertation is interested in the long-run relationship between longevity and economic development. In the first chapter, I analyse the impact of health expenditures on economic growth and welfare. For this, I study the influence of the tax rate in an economy à la Chakraborty (2004). I first determine the growth-maximizing tax rate, which is shown to be 0 in low-income countries. Second, I show that the steady-state income level is an inverted U-shaped function or a decreasing function of the tax rate. Third, I study the tax rate that maximizes the steady-state welfare level. In the second chapter, I propose a theoretical model to study the growth impacts of health expenditures chosen by the agents. Indeed, I develop a Diamond model with endogenous growth in which young individuals can spend resources to increase their longevity in retirement period. I give a full characterization of the dynamic general equilibrium and determine the growth impacts of health expenditures. They can speed up or slow down economic growth. They can be a barrier or a necessity for growth to take place. A calibration to OECD countries suggests that the latter case is the most likely one. Finally, the third chapter studies the theoretical impact of the aging process on the sectorial labor allocation. To this aim, I develop a multi-sector two-period overlapping generations model in which I examine the consequences of both a longevity shift and a fertility shift on the labor allocation of the economy and on the income per worker level. I show that contrary to one-sector models, the income per worker level is not necessarily monotonic with respect to demographic variables. Realistic demographic shocks are also shown to create significant labor reallocation across sectors.

We live in an ever-changing environment: globalisation is moving forward rapidly; the effects of Climate Change can be felt worldwide, anthropogenic resource extraction is ongoing and global pandemics are bringing up unexpected challenges. Evidence of these changes are everywhere, but significantly the polar regions are dramatically affected and aspect of geopolitical interest. Until now, little emphasis has been put on understanding Arctic communities’ transformations and their livelihoods due to those accelerating changes.One of these polar regions is the northernmost town of the world, Longyearbyen, on the Archipelago of Svalbard, governed through Norway under the ‘Svalbard Treaty’. The town is transforming from a mining-based community towards a service-based community, focusing on tourism, research and education. As Norway only holds sovereignty over the Archipelago but all signatory countries of the Treaty hold equal commercial rights over the island, the place is caught between geopolitical visions and local reality. The thesis at hand questions how the future of Longyearbyen is imagined in the face of accelerating global and local challenges. Based on the theoretical framework of imaginaries and explicitly Arctic imaginaries, the research uses a form of discourse analysis to investigate those. The discursive approach by Bacchi called “What’s the problem represented to be?” (WPR) was applied as a method to simplify the critical analysis of public policies. The latest policy on Svalbard’sfuture development, “The White Paper for Svalbard” from 2016, was critically examined, which presentsa clear governmental imaginary to maintain Norwegian communities on the Archipelago. Following the WPRapproach, it has further been analysed how that governmental imaginary has historically come about. In the last step, an extensive media analysis was conducted to examine how the governmental imaginary has developed, been questioned or disrupted by other emerging local imaginaries. This research portraits the common grounds, discrepancies, and entanglement of imaginaries from various levels of Longyearbyen’s community, ranging from local to institutional, to enable a profound conversation about Longyearbyen’s future. / Världen vi lever i förändras ständigt; globaliseringen rör sig snabbt framåt, klimatförändringarnas styrka kan kännas över hela jordklotet och människan fortsätter alltjämt att utvinna naturtillgångar medan globala pandemier genererar oförutsägbara utmaningar. Spår av dessa förändringar finns överallt, men polarregionerna påverkas särskilt drastiskt och har blivit av stort geopolitiskt intresse. Hittills har ytterst lite arbete lagts ner för att förstå de arktiska samhällenas omställning och uppehälle underdessa nya förutsättningar. Ett av dessa samhällen är världens nordligaste stad Longyearbyen som är belägen på ögruppen Svalbard och styrs genom Norge under Svalbardtraktaten. Staden som tidigare försörjde sig i princip uteslutande på gruvnäring har nu blivit ett tjänstesamhällemed fokus på turism, forskning och utbildning. Eftersom Norge enbart har suveräniteten över ögruppen och delar de kommersiella rättigheterna på Svalbard med övriga undertecknade länder i traktaten hamnar platsen ofta i kläm mellan geopolitiska intressen och den lokala verkligheten. Det här examensarbetet ifrågasätter hur Longyearbyens framtid framställs inför dess tilltagande globala och lokala utmaningar. Baserat på den teoretiska ramen för visioner (”imaginaries”) och uttryckligen arktiska visioner använder undersökningen en form av diskursanalys. Bacchis WPR-metod (”What’s the problem represented to be?”) användes för att förenkla och kritiskt analysera offentliga bestämmelser. Den senaste policyn för Svalbards framtida utveckling från 2016, som kallas ”The White Paper for Svalbard”, undersöktes noggrant och visade på en tydlig politisk ambition att bibehålla den norska majoriteten inom ögruppens samhällen. Med hjälp av WPR-metoden kunde dessutom den historiska utvecklingen av denhär ambitionen analyseras. Slutligen genomfördes en omfattande mediaanalys för att undersöka hur dessa politiska visioner har utvecklats, ifrågasatts eller påverkats av andra framväxande, lokala visioner. Det här arbetet porträtterar de gemensamma grunderna, avvikelserna och sammanflätningen av visioner i Longyearbyen, på såväl lokal som institutionell nivå, för att möjliggöra en djupgående diskussion kring Longyearbyens framtid.

Cette thèse fournit une illustration numérique de la façon dont une taxe carbone pourrait affecter le PIB, l’emploi, les émissions de CO2 et les inégalités socio-économiques en Afrique du Sud. Elle utilise un modèle d’équilibre général calculable « hybride » en économie ouverte par projection en un seul pas de temps de 2005 à 2035. Le modèle représente des économies de second rang, notamment des rigidités sur le marché du travail liées aux niveaux de qualification et dans la production électrique. Sept scénarios basés sur des modalités différentes de recyclage de la taxe carbone sont analysés, plus une option d’investir une partie des revenus de la taxe dans l’amélioration des qualifications de la force de travail.L’analyse montre que sous hypothèse standard de changement technique, une taxe carbone de 100 ZAR par tonne de CO2 environ a peu d’impact négatif sur le PIB et l’emploi lorsqu’elle est associée à un mode de recyclage des revenus approprié : subventionner le facteur travail et réduire les taxes sur les profits des entreprises pourrait conduire aux meilleurs résultats macroéconomiques, mais ne réduit pas les inégalités. Des mesures supplémentaires sont nécessaires pour réduire la « pauvreté énergétique ». Pour atteindre le NDC d’Afrique du Sud au titre de l’Accord de Paris, un taux de taxe d’environ 300 ZAR ou 55$ par tonne de CO2 serait nécessaire. Toutefois, un tel taux pourrait avoir un impact significatif sur la croissance du PIB. En même temps, sans changement de la tendance de croissance de la productivité du travail, ce PIB plus faible conduirait à un chômage plus élevé que dans le cas de référence. Une politique d’investissement de 7.5 milliards de ZAR de revenus carbone dans les qualifications de la main d’œuvre, avec l’objectif d’augmenter l’accès à la formation de haut niveau et de réduire le manque de salariés très qualifiés, pourrait avoir un effet très positif sur la croissance du PIB.Le progrès technologique, les préférences des consommateurs et le contexte international, limitent la capacité de l’économie à se restructurer et se décarboner et incidemment à réduire les impacts négatifs de la taxe carbone sur la croissance du PIB. Une véritable évaluation du changement technologique futur serait pertinente pour tous les secteurs et facteurs de production. Ces résultats impliquent aussi que la politique climatique internationale doit traiter la question des transferts de technologie et celles des potentiels différents de décarbonation sérieuse à l’échelle nationale. / This PhD thesis gives a numerical illustration of how a carbon tax affects South African GDP, employment, CO2 emissions and socio-economic inequality. It uses a “hybrid” computable general equilibrium model of an open economy in a one-step projection from 2005 to 2035. It models second-best economies, notably skill-related rigidities in the labour market and in production of electricity. Seven scenarios for recycling of carbon tax revenue are analysed, plus an option to invest a part of tax revenue in improvement of skills of labour.The analysis shows that under conventional assumptions about technological change, a carbon tax of around 100 ZAR2005 (18 USD2013) per tonne of CO2 will have little negative consequences for GDP and employment, when combined with the right type of tax revenue recycling: Labour subsidies and company profit tax reduction likely lead to the best macro-economic outcomes, though do not reduce inequality. Additional measures are needed to reduce “energy poverty”. To achieve South Africa’s NDC of the Paris Agreement, a carbon tax rate of around 300 ZAR2005 or 55 USD2013 per tonne of CO2 is necessary. However, this could have serious impacts on GDP growth. Also, without a change in the trend of increasing labour productivity, such lower GDP will lead to higher unemployment than in the reference case. An investment in skills of 7.5 billion ZAR2005 of annual Ctax revenue, with the objective of increasing access to high quality education and reducing the high skill labour shortage, if fond to have a very positive impact on GDP growth. However better calibration data is required.The findings of this PhD thesis furthermore call for thorough examination of what type of technological change could be expected for South Africa. Technological progress, consumer preferences and international circumstances limit the economy’s capacity to restructure and decarbonise and therefore to reduce negative consequences of carbon taxation for GDP growth. Proper assessment of future technological change is relevant for all sectors and inputs. Examples are given which show that energy and materials efficiency have an important role for future GDP growth under carbon constraints, because they determine the economy’s flexibility to reduce energy consumption and to substitute it, e.g. by labour. This finding normally holds not only for South Africa, but also for the rest of the world. These results also imply that international climate policy has to address technology transfer and the different potentials of national economies to decarbonise seriously.

Um die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung Berlins nach der Wiedervereinigung zu verstehen, ist ein Blick auf die Geschichte notwendig. Die Teilung der Stadt nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg führte zur Isolation der regionalen Wirtschaft. Zahlreiche Unternehmen verließen Berlin und siedelten sich in West-Deutschland an. Die Bundesrepublik und die DDR subventionierten West- und Ost-Berlin. Berlin gehörte noch zu Beginn des 20. Jahrhunderts zu den größten Wirtschaftsmetropolen Europas und der Welt, zu Beginn der Jahrtausendwende war die deutsche Hauptstadt nur eine normale Großstadt im Herzen Europas. Der regionale Strukturwandel der Wirtschaftsleistung in Berlin vollzog sich dabei in drei Phasen: Einem schnellen Aufschwung nach der Wiedervereinigung von 1991 bis 1995, einer Phase der Stagnation von 1996 bis 2004 sowie einem robusten Wachstum von 2005 bis 2010. Die sektorspezifische und gesamtwirtschaftliche Betrachtung der Shift-Share-Analyse stellen für den Zeitraum von 1991 bis 2010 dar, dass sich die deutsche Hauptstadt bei der Bruttowertschöpfung in jeweiligen Preisen und der Erwerbstätigkeit schlechter entwickelt hat als der Bundesdurchschnitt. Das lag bei beiden Kennzahlen an standortspezifischen Faktoren. Aus diesen Ergebnissen lassen sich drei Thesen ableiten: Die Geschichte prägte die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung in der deutschen Hauptstadt, Berlin ist zu einer Dienstleistungsmetropole vor allem wegen des starken Rückgangs des produzierenden Gewerbes geworden und das wirtschaftliche Wachstum der Stadt ist seit dem Jahr 2005 nachhaltig. Mittlerweile sind zahlreiche Unternehmen, die in einzelnen Branchen und Nischen Weltmarktführer sind, in Berlin tätig. Diese Unternehmen sind vor allem in Zukunftsbranchen ansässig und bilden das Gerüst für die weitere Entwicklung Berlins. Durch die starke Diversifizierung der regionalen Wirtschaftsstruktur mit relativ vielen kleinen und mittleren Unternehmen ist die deutsche Hauptstadt weniger anfällig für konjunkturelle und strukturelle Krisen. Das hat die Wirtschafts- und Finanzkrise gezeigt. Mit der aktiven Förderung von Zukunftsfeldern durch eine abgestimmte Cluster-Strategie mit dem Land Brandenburg hat Berlin die Weichen für einen wirtschaftlichen Aufschwung der gesamten Region gestellt. / In order to understand Berlins‘ economic development after the reunion, it is necessary to look into the history of the city. Its division after the second world war induced its isolation within the regional economy. Numerous firms left Berlin and settled down in West-Germany. The federal republic and the GDR subsidized West- and East-Berlin. At the beginning of the 20th century Berlin was one of Europe’s’ and the World’s greatest commercial capitals. At the turn of the millennium however, the German capital was nothing more but a big city at the heart of Europe. In Berlin, the economy’s regional restructuration took place in three phases: a rapid boom after the reunion from 1991 til 1995, stagnation from 1996 til 2004 and finally a robust growth from 2005 til 2010. The sector specific and macroeconomic consideration by shift-share-analysis show a beneath average development of the German capitals’ gross value of prices and employment from 1991 til 2010. This was due to location specific factors. Three hypotheses can therefore be derived: the economic development of the German capital was defined by its history, due to the decreasing amount of manufacturing firms Berlin has become a metropolis in the service sector and the economic growth of the city can be considered as sustainable since 2005. Meanwhile, many firms which are world market leaders in different sectors have their headquarters or seat in Berlin. These firms are mainly active in future oriented sectors and build the frame for Berlins’ sustainable development. The strong diversification of the regional economic structure with many small and middle sized firms, make the German capital less prone to cyclical and structural crises. The economic and financial crisis confirmed this. Berlin and Brandenburg have together, by a common cluster strategy in the active advancement of future oriented sectors, put in place a way to economic boom.