對於一個具有結構性改變性質的非線性時間數列，通常很難判斷何處為轉 捩點，或者何處為所謂的轉型期。雖然長久以來已有不少偵查轉捩點的方 法被提出，但是對於轉捩區間以及對於一些語言性的時間數列資料問題（ 例如：景氣指標的紅綠燈時間數列），都很少被提出來。本論文中，我們 首先引用Zadeh於1965年提出來的模糊理論的觀念來介紹糢糊時間數列（ FTS）。進而定義出在□水準下的模糊點（FP）和模糊轉捩區間（FCP）， 並且證明了一些有用的性質。最後再以台灣地區出生率資料為例，說明□ 水準的模糊轉捩區間的判定方法，並列出了詳細的執行步驟。實驗結果更 證明出我們的模糊檢驗法非常具有實用性及有效性。 / As far as structural change of a non-linear time series is concerned, it is hard to tell when the change point or the fuzzy change period occurs. Though many methods are used for the task of detecting, most of them primarily deal with the case of change point, and few examine the problem of fuzzy change period and linguistic time series ( for example, the index of prosperity represented by red or green light ). In this article, we adopt the theory of fuzzy which is proposed by Zedeh ( 1965 ) to introduce the concept of fuzzy time series ( FTS ). Furthermore, we define the □level of fuzzy point (FP) as well as fuzzy change period (FCP), and prove some useful properties. Finally we explain the method we proposed in detecting the □level of fuzzy change period in terms of the data of Taiwan birth rate and provide step-by-step procedures. Experimental results show that the proposed method of fuzzy detecting is available and practical in detecting the □level of fuzzy change period.

聯邦模型（Fed Model）為一簡單股市報酬估計模型，認為股市之報酬率與政府十年期公債殖利率相近。本研究以此模型對亞太地區十個市場進行探討，並以反序累積平方和（Reversed Ordered Cusum squared，ROC）的方式偵測市場之結構變異，以做出更精確的預測與分析。所研究的市場包括澳洲、紐西蘭、日本、台灣、南韓、新加坡、香港、泰國、馬來西亞、以及菲律賓。我們得到的結論認為聯邦模型在澳洲、紐西蘭、日本、南韓、新加坡、及菲律賓的確有其效果存在，且在考量可能產生結構變異的時間點後，可使預測準確度提高。因此，我們可採用聯邦模型，做為資產在股市與債市間配置之參考工具。 / The Fed Model indicates that the stock market returns are very close to the long-term government bond yields. This article examines the Fed model in 10 main Asia-Pacific markets- Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Thailand, Malaysia, and Philippine. The Reversed Ordered Cusum squared (ROC) test is used to detect the structural changes, and improve the out-of-sample forecasting results. We conclude that the Fed Model has some prediction power in these 10 markets, and can be considered as a useful dynamic asset allocation tool.

本文研究台灣貨幣需求結構改變，我們研究「變數」值(Piecewise in Variable)的結構轉折而非「時間」值(Piecewise in Time)，因為轉折點只是轉折區間的特例，所以本文建立一「變數模糊時間序列」(Fuzzy Time Series in Variable)模型來探討「變數的轉折區間」，相較於傳統時間序列研究方法如：時間序列模型、門檻轉折點模型與模糊時間序列模型等，本文所建立的變數模糊時間序列模型，所求取的股價轉折區間，不僅可改善對稱模型殘差項的非隨機現象，同時也改善了門檻轉折模型之轉折點股價指數太低的現象，並且有效地將轉折點變更為較一般化的轉折區間，足見本文所提出變數模糊時間序列模型在結構轉折的偵測上具有相對優勢，詳述如下： （一）、相較於對稱模型方面：變數模糊時間序列模型可避免對稱模型估計貨幣需求函數所產生的偏差，並且有效改善其殘差項具有非白噪音現象。 （二）、相較於門檻轉折模型方面：1.變數模糊時間序列模型較能有效驗證以下假說：貨幣需求的股價指數彈性在高股價區時較大，以及貨幣需求的所得彈性在高股價區時較小。2.變數模糊時間序列模型所求出的股價指數轉折區間水準值，對央行目前及未來貨幣政策較具實用性，3. 變數模糊時間序列模型再預測貨幣需求時，未如門檻轉折模型產生高估的偏誤。 （三）、相較於傳統模糊時間序列模型方面：變數模糊時間序列模型已改善傳統模糊時間序列模型的結構轉折區間太長之不合理現象。 （四）、相較於以「時間」為轉折的傳統時間序列模型方面：當貨幣需求函數的重要解釋變數在短時間持續發生較大幅度變化時，傳統時間序列模型可能無法診斷出結構轉變的缺失，本文的變數模糊時間序列模型可避免此一缺失。 （五）、在政策的應用上： 1. 中央銀行若未將資料，區分高低股價指數來分段估計貨幣需求函數，將使貨幣需求的所得彈性抑或是狹義貨幣需求的股價指數彈性的估計，產生頗大的偏誤。 2. 經建會在計算台灣地區的景氣對策信號中，其金融面指標同時包括有M1B貨幣供給的增加率與股價指數變動率，如此將造成在高股價指數下，股價指數上揚時高估了台灣地區的景氣狀況，而在股價指數下降時，則反之。 另外，由於台灣欠缺貨幣需求函數的重要解釋變數「所得」的月資料，以往文獻以工業生產指數等為替代變數以估計月貨幣需求函數，本文不僅證明這些方法的缺失，並提出「模糊距離權數法」來估計出月國內生產毛額資料，此一資料不僅可避免月工業生產指數等方法的三項缺失，而且在貨幣需求的估計上與預測上均有較佳的表現。 / Whether the ”money demand function” makes “structural change” happened or not ,that is crucial research for the monetary theory field. Therefore, many foreign and domestic papers have ever made studies on this. There have two major methods of study structural change. The first method is piecewise in time that is so popular and so many lecture study by it e.g. Juda and Scadding(1982), Shen(1999) ,Lin and Huang(1999),etc . Tsay(1989) had proposed a new methoed that is piecewise in variable . Distinct situation is suitable in using the two methods .We have two reasons to use the new method to study the structural change of Taiwan’s money demand function. First one is that Friedman(1988,Paul（1992）,Wu and Shea（1993）and Shen(1996) find the trade-volume of stock market or stock price are the important factors of money demand function. TSE is 12495 in February of 1990 and 2573 in October of 1990. TSE is changing so huge but all the Papers of piecewise in time can’t detect the structural change of Taiwan money demand. The second reason is that to detect the ” interval of financial variable” of structural change of Taiwan money demand is more benefit to the Central Bank than to detect the ” past time point” of structural change.　To detect the ” interval of financial variable” of structural change of Taiwan money demand is much convenient matters for monetary policy of Center Bank from now and future. Our research propose “fuzzy time series in variable” try to find the ” smoothing interval of financial variable” of structural change of money demand . Our method has two major benefits as follow: 1. Difference to TAR model: The TAR model find out the ” point of financial variable” of structural change. It seems metaphorically money demand function’s structural change suddenly. Our method find out the ” interval of financial variable” of structural change .It’s more reasonable that structural change of money demand function is gradually. 2. Difference to STAR model: So many STAR（Smooth Transition Autoregressive ）papers also find out the Gradual Transition Interval .For example: Terasvirta and Anderson(1992), Sarantis(1999) etc. But those lectures have the following point on why our method can improve it (a).STAR is piecewise in time. (b). STAR investigate structural change by just one variable AR process. But economists concern the structural change of variables. (c). The power of STAR to detect structural change is too weak. 3. We propose new summation average entropy formula that can improve the interval of structural change too longer.

本研究的主要目的是希望喚起國內、外學者對演化科學在經濟學上的重視，結合電腦、生物科技、心理學與數學於經濟學中，希望對傳統經濟學上因簡化假設而無法克服的實際經濟問題，可以利用電腦模擬技術獲得解決，並獲取新知與技能。 本研究共有六章，第一章為緒論，敘述緣由與研究動機。第二章介紹傳統經濟學的缺失，再以資料掘取知識及智慧系統建構金融市場。第三章則介紹各種不同人工智慧的方法以模擬金融市場的投資策略。第四章建立無結構性變遷時間序列模型--交易策略電腦模擬分析，僅以遺傳演算法模擬金融市場的投資策略，分別由投資組合、交易成本、調適性、演化、與統計的觀點對策略作績效評分析。第五章則建立簡單的結構性變遷模型，分別由調適性與統計的觀點，採取遺傳演算法再對投資策略進行有效性評估分析。第六章則利用資料掘取知識與智慧系統結合計量經濟學的方法，建構遺傳演算法發展投資策略的步驟，以台灣股票市場的資料進行實証研究，分別就投資策略、交易成本、調適性與演化的觀點作分析。最後一章則為結論。 未來研究的方向有： 1. 其他各種不同人工智慧的方法的比較分析，如人工神經網路、遺傳規劃法等進行績效的交叉比較分析。 2. 利用分類系統(Classifier System)與模糊邏輯的方法，改善標準遺傳演算法對策略編碼的效率，並建構各種不同的複雜策略以符合真實世界的決策過程。 3. 建構其他人工時間資料的模擬比較分析，例如ARCH (Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity)模型、Threshold 模型、 確定性(Deterministic) 模型等其他時間序列模型與更複雜的結構性變遷模型。 4. 進一步研究遺傳演算法所使用的完整資訊(例如，各種不同指標的選取)。 5. 本研究係採用非即時分析系統(Offline System)，進一步研究即時分析系統 (Online Sysetem)在實務上是有必要的。 / Historically, the study of economics has been advanced by a combination of empirical observation and theoretic development. The analysis of mathematical equilibrium in theoretical economic models has been the predominant mode of progress in recent decades. Such models provide powerful insights into economic processes, but usually make restrictive assumptions and appear to be over simplifications of complex economic system. However, the advent of cheap computing power and new intelligent technologies makes it possible to delve further into some of the complexities inherent in the real economy. It is now feasible to create a rudimentary form of “artificial economic life”. First, we build the framework of artificial stock markets by using data mining and intelligent system. Second, in order to analyze competition among buyers and sellers in the artificial market, we introduce various methods of artificial intelligence to design trading rules, and investigate how machine-learning techniques might be applied to search the optimal investment strategy. Third, we create a miniature economic laboratory to build the artificial stock market by genetic algorithms to analyze investment strategies, by using real and artificial data, which consider both structural change and nonstructural change cases. Finally, we use statistical analysis to examine the performance of the portfolio strategies generated by genetic algorithms.

Text in German / The present dissertation considers the historical and theological foundations of radical evangelicalism and puts it in the context of theologies which influenced it and are similar to it. It will be demonstrated that the evangelicals are enriched by radical evangelicalism - an evangelical basic concept with elements of anabaptism, the social gospel, liberation theology and the ecumencial theologies. Thus it will be demonstrated that radical theology is genuinely evangelical, yet is capable of overcoming the one sidedness of western evangelical theology. Special attention is given to the contributions of radicals from North America as well as from Latin America since they are of considerable importance to radical evangelicalism. The aim of the dissertation is to present radical evangelicalism, to critically evaluate it, and to make it profitable to the European evangelical scene. The first section names the sources from which radical theology flowed. The second section reviews the historical development of radical evangelicalism. It will be demonstrated that, in the thirty years of its existence, radical evangelicalism has become a significant factor within the worldwide evangelical movement. The third section presents the fundamental characteristics of radical theology within a selection of themes. It demonstrates that the radicals have confronted the evangelical movement with a transforming theory of mission, which shows itself to be relevant for today's pressing problems. The fourth section describes the social action of radical evangelicalism and demonstrates that the energetic theology of the radicals is in fact based on a compelling spirituality. The fifth section records the results of the investigation and presents conclusions for praxis and further theological study. / Die voriiegende Dissertation erfasst die geschichtlichen und theologischen Grundlinien des radikalen Evangelikalismus und stellt ihn in den Kontext ahnlicher und ihn beeinflussender Theologien. Es wird aufgezeigt, dass der radikale Evangelikalismus eine evangelikale Grundkonzeption mit Elementen des Anabaptismus, des Social Gospel, der Befreiungstheologie und der Theologien im Umfeld des Okumenischen Rates der Kirchen bereichert Dabei wird deutlich, dass die radikale Theologie genuin evangelikal ist, die Einseitigkeiten der westlichen evangelikalen Theologie aber zu uberwinden vermag. Besondere Aufmerksamkeit ist den Beitragen radikaler Nord- und Lateinamerikaner gewidmet, da diese den radikalen Evangelikalismus wesentlich gepragt haben. Ziel ist es, den radikalen Evangelikalismus darzustellen, kritisch zu wiirdigen und fur die europaische evangelikale Szene fruchtbar zu machen. Der erste Teil nennt die Quellen, aus denen sich die radikale Theologie speist. Der zweite Teil zeichnet den geschichtlichen Werdegang des radikalen Evangelikalismus nach. Es wird nachgewiesen, dass der radikale Evangelikalismus in den dreissig Jahren seines Bestehens zu einem bestimmenden Faktor in der weltweiten evangelikalen Bewegung geworden ist. Der dritte Teil stellt die Grundzuge der radikalen Theologie mittels ausgewahlter Themen dar. Er zeigt auf, dass die Radikalen die evangelikale Bewegung mit einer transformatorischen Missionstheorie konfrontiert haben, die relevant fur die drangenden Probleme der Gegenwart ist. Der vierte Teil stellt die soziale Aktion des radikalen Evangelikalismus dar und zeigt auf, dass die energische Theologie der Radikalen im Grande genommen zur Tat driingende Spirituality ist. Der funfte Teil halt die Ergebnisse der Untersuchung fest und zieht Folgerungen fur die Praxis und das weitere theologische Arbeiten. / Christian Spirituality, Church History and Missiology / M.Th. (Missiology)

L’agriculture et le secteur rural jouent un rôle primordial dans le processus de développement des pays à base agricole. Cett efonction ne peut être assurée qu’à l’aide de politiques publiques qui tiennent compte de la diversité et de la complexité desmilieux ruraux. Le préalable est donc d’avoir des connaissances approfondies de chaque contexte et des dynamiques qui ysont en cours. Ce travail propose alors d’analyser, dans une perspective microéconomique, les relations entre structurationsociale des milieux ruraux et transformation structurelle avec une application à Madagascar, dans la région d’Itasy. La class ede la Petite Prospérité, qui est une adaptation de la notion de classe moyenne en milieu rural pauvre, est alors utilisée commegrille d’analyse. A cette fin, la première étape de recherche consiste en une construction conceptuelle, théorique etméthodologique de la classe de la Petite Prospérité en mobilisant le cadre conceptuel des moyens d’existence ruraux afin deproduire un cadre d’analyse opérationnel. Dans un second temps, le cadre défini est mis en oeuvre dans la stratificationmultidimensionnelle de l’espace social en Itasy à l’aide d’une méthode de classification mixte sur des données quantitativesde 2008. Cette étape permet de mettre en évidence les différentes classes sociales et de Petites Prospérités en Itasy quireflètent l’hétérogénéité de la nature et de l’efficacité des moyens d’existence des ménages ruraux. Dans une troisième étape ,une analyse dynamique des groupes de Petites Prospérités est menée à l’aide de la combinaison de méthodes quantitatives etqualitatives sur une période d’observation longue. Plusieurs trajectoires associées aux différentes classes sont observées etpermettent de comprendre les processus de construction et de transformation des organisations productives familiales enItasy. La dernière étape du travail traite la problématique spécifique de la demande de crédit et de l’adéquation de l’offre surle marché financier en Itasy. Il apparait une forte segmentation de la demande de financement en fonction des groupessociaux et la difficulté de l’offre disponible à satisfaire leurs besoins, malgré l’existence de produits innovants. Des politiquesinclusives et adaptées à chaque classe de ménages s’avèrent donc nécessaires pour assurer un processus de transformationstructurelle rapide et harmonieux en Itasy. / Agriculture and rural sector play a key role in the development process of agriculture-based countries. This function can beensured only by public policy that takes into account the diversity and complexity of rural areas. It is therefore essential todeepen the knowledge of each context and the ongoing dynamics. This study introduces an analysis of the relationshipsbetween rural social structure and structural transformation through a microeconomic perspective, with an application inMadagascar, in the Itasy region. Specifically, the Moderate Prosperty class, which is an adaptation of the middle class notionto poor rural areas, is used as an analytical framework. To this end, the first step aims to conduct a conceptual, theoretical andmethodological construction of the Moderate Prosperity notion by using the rural livelihoods framework and provides anoperational conceptual framework. Second, the conceptual framework, thus defined, is used to implement a multidimensionalstratification of the social space in Itasy by conducting a classification method on quantitative data dating from 2008. Thisstep aims to define the various Moderate Prosperity and social classes that reflect the heterogeneity of the nature andprofitability of the rural households’ livelihoods. Third, a dynamic analysis of the Moderate Prosperity groups is conductedby combining quantitative with qualitative methods based on a longer observation period. Several trajectories linked to thevarious classes can be observed. They allow us to understand the construction and transformation process of the familyproductive organizations in Itasy. The last step uses the Moderate Prosperity framework to study the specific issue of thecredit demand and the supply adequacy on the financial market in Itasy. It appears that the financing demand is highlysegmented according to the social groups and the available supply cannot meet their financing needs, despite the existence ofinnovative products. Inclusive policies that are adapted to each household profile are therefore necessary to ensure a rapidand harmonious structural transformation in Itasy.

Aufgrund des gesellschaftlichen Wandels, globaler klimatischer und marktlicher Veränderungen sowie zunehmender Ressourcenknappheit sind landwirtschaftliche Betriebe immer mehr gefordert, ihre Produktionsverfahren anzupassen. Doch sind solche Innovationen häufig komplex und weisen einen systemischen Charakter auf. KMU sind häufig nicht in der Lage, diese oft mit höherem Risiko behafteten Innovationen voranzutreiben oder zu übernehmen. Zur Förderung ihrer Diffusion ist es notwendig, die äußeren und inneren Rahmenbedingungen der Innovationsumgebung zu kennen. Am Fallbeispiel der Innovationsprozesse zur Überwindung der Nachbauproblematik im Apfelanbau werden potenzielle Einflussfaktoren auf die Adoption neuer Maßnahmen mithilfe des sektoralen Innovationssystemansatzes nach Malerba und einem erweiterten Technology Acceptance Model erfasst. Hierbei wurde deutlich, dass trotz der günstigen natürlichen Rahmenbedingungen in der Untersuchungsregion, Faktoren wie sinkende Erzeugerpreise, Lohnsteigerungen, Wettbewerbsdruck, Klimawandel, die abnehmende Verfügbarkeit jungfräulicher Flächen sowie steigende Anforderungen des LEH und der Gesellschaft einen wirtschaftlichen Anbau zunehmend erschweren. Vor allem aber für Baumschulen sind die Folgen der Bodenmüdigkeit aufgrund des hohen Produktionswertes pro Hektar Kulturfläche besonders schwerwiegend. Maßnahmen, die bisher gegen Bodenermüdung ergriffen wurden, sind wenig effektiv, oder unwirtschaftlich. Die Analyse der Akzeptanzbefragung potenzieller Adopter zum Einsatz von Mikroorganismen gegen Bodenmüdigkeit ergab, dass die Nützlichkeit des Verfahrens positiv wahrgenommen wird und sich dies in einer hohen Übernahmeabsicht widerspiegelt. Eine Strukturgleichungsanalyse des in dieser Studie entwickelten Akzeptanzmodells mittels SmartPLS mit einem Bestimmtheitsmaß von 68% verdeutlichen, dass nicht vorrangig ökonomische Faktoren, sondern in erster Linie die Kompatibilität der Maßnahme, Einfluss auf eine potenzielle Übernahme ausüben würde. / Due to social change, global climatic and market changes as well as increasing scarcity of resources, agricultural enterprises are increasingly required to adapt their production processes. However, innovations often have a systemic character. SMEs are often not in a position to promote or adopt these innovations, which are often associated with higher risks. In order to promote their diffusion, it is, therefore, advantageous to know the external and internal framework conditions of the environment for innovation. Using the case study of innovation processes to overcome the problem of apple replant disease, potential influencing factors on the adoption of new measures are identified on the basis of the Sectoral Innovation System Approach according to Malerba and an extended Technology Acceptance Model. It became clear that, despite the favourable natural conditions in the study region, factors such as falling producer prices, wage increases, competitive pressure, climate change, the decreasing availability of virgin land and the increasing demands of food retailers and society are making commercial cultivation increasingly challenging. However, the consequences of soil fatigue are particularly severe for tree nurseries due to the high production value per hectare of cultivated land. Measures that have so far been taken to combat soil fatigue are ineffective or uneconomical. The analysis of the acceptance survey of potential adopters of microorganisms against soil fatigue showed that the usefulness of the method is perceived positively and that this is reflected in a high intention to adopt it. A structural equation analysis of the acceptance model developed in this study using SmartPLS and a coefficient of determination of 68% make it clear that not primarily economic factors, but primarily the compatibility of the measure, would influence a potential adoption.

[pt] Esta tese é composta por três ensaios. Os dois primeiros investigam a relação entre a renda per capita das famílias e as frações dos gastos setoriais, tanto em séries temporais quanto em cross-section nos EUA do pós-guerra. O primeiro usa uma abordagem parcial para estimar o aumento da dispersão do consumo (renda) e os efeitos de renda nos EUA de 1980 a 2010. Mostramos que os efeitos da renda são heterogêneos entre as famílias agrupadas por quintis de renda e, em seguida, a dispersão do consumo é correlacionada com as duas principais forças de transformação estrutural (efeitos de preço e renda) na contabilização da magnitude de transformação estrutural nas partes das despesas de consumo nos EUA durante esse período. O segundo estende um modelo canônico de Bewley-Aiyagari em tempo contínuo incorporado a um ambiente de dois setores para representar quantitativamente três regularidades empíricas nos EUA do pós-guerra (o preço relativo dos bens cai e a parcela de gastos dos produtos cai sistematicamente com a renda per capita, tanto em séries temporais quanto no cross-section) sem se afastar das preferências padrão Stone-Geary. Avaliamos a importância de mudanças na renda e nos preços relativos para mudanças estruturais nas parcelas dos gastos de consumo nos EUA do pós-guerra e concluímos que são forças equivalentes. Reforçamos que a conciliação dessas três principais regularidades empíricas nos EUA do pós-guerra exige uma teoria do crescimento que acomode a demanda de longo prazo e forneça fatores de mudança estrutural. Finalmente, o terceiro ensaio usa um conjunto de dados de painel exclusivo com registros administrativos em nível individual de transações de crédito, benefícios do programa, demografia individual e características de contratos de trabalho para estudar como os consumidores respondem a um choque de liquidez decorrente de liberações de saques de contas inativas do Fundo de Garantia por tempo de serviço (FGTS) no Brasil em 2017. Usando um design de identificação de diferenças entre diferenças, encontramos um aumento no consumo e uma dívida total diminuída após o anúncio: durante até doze meses subsequentes, para cada USD 1 de benefício do programa, os consumidores a média aumentaram os gastos de consumo em USD 0,53 - 25 porcento dos quais ocorrem durante a janela de anúncio - e a dívida total diminuiu em USD 0,07, especialmente em dívidas de folha de pagamento. A resposta ao consumo ocorreu principalmente por meio de gastos com cartão de crédito, mas também foram encontradas evidências de bens duráveis financiados por dívida. Os consumidores endividados usaram liquidez de curto prazo nas modalidades de dívida (cheque especial e dívida com cartão de crédito), além dos gastos com cartão de crédito para suavizar consumo. Consumidores restritos, medidos como jovens ou idosos, mostraram respostas mais fortes ao consumo. / [en] This thesis is comprised of three essays. The first two investigate the relationship between households per capita income and sectoral expenditure shares both in times series and in cross-section in the postwar US. The first uses a partial approach to estimate the rise of consumption (income) dispersion and income effects in the US from 1980 to 2010. We show that income effects are heterogeneous across households grouped by income quintiles and then consumption dispersion correlates the two main driving forces of structural change (price and income effects) in accounting for the magnitude of structural change in the shares of consumption expenditure in the US over this period. The second extends a canonical Bewley-Aiyagari model in continuous time embedded with a two-sector environment to depict quantitatively three empirical regularities in the postwar US (relative price of goods falls and expenditure shares of goods falls systematically with per capita income, both in times series and in cross-section) without departing from benchmark Stone-Geary preferences. We assess the importance of changes in income and relative prices for structural change in the shares of consumption expenditure in the postwar US and conclude they are nearly equivalent forces. We reinforce that reconciling these three main empirical regularities in the postwar US calls for a growth theory that accommodates long-run demand and supply drivers of structural change. Finally, the third essay uses a unique panel dataset with individual-level administrative records of credit transactions, program benefits, individual demographics and features of labor contracts to study how consumers respond to a liquidity shock arising from withdrawals releases from inactive accounts of the Guarantee Fund for Time of Service (FGTS) in Brazil in 2017. Using a difference-in-differences identification design, we find consumption rose and total debt declined after the announcement: during up to twelve subsequent months, for each USD 1 of program benefit, consumers on average increased consumption spending by USD 0.53 - 25 percent of which occurs during the announcement window - and total debt declined by USD 0.07, specially in payroll debt. Consumption response occurred mostly via credit card spending, but evidence of debt-financed durables was also found. Indebted consumers used short-term liquidity in debt modalities (overdraft debt and credit card debt) in addition to credit card spending to smooth consumption. Constrained consumers, measured as young or old, showed stronger consumption responses.

Ausgangspunkt dieser Arbeit ist die gesellschaftliche Problematisierung des Größenstrukturwandels in der deutschen Landwirtschaft. Zuerst wird anhand einer strukturierenden Inhaltsanalyse von Positionspapieren zur Reform der Gemeinsamen Agrarpolitik herausgearbeitet, dass der Größenstrukturwandel sowohl als Gerechtigkeits- als auch als Multifunktionalitätsproblem gedeutet wird. Die Positionen überlappen im Prinzip der Leistungsgerechtigkeit und in dem Ziel, möglichst viele Betriebe zu erhalten. Viele der präsenten Annahmen über die Vorteile kleiner Betriebe lassen sich wissenschaftlich nicht bestätigen. Hinsichtlich sozialer Funktionen von Landwirtschaft wird eine Forschungslücke identifiziert. Es folgt eine systematische Literaturanalyse, die konzeptuelle Zugänge zu sozialen Funktionen von Landwirtschaft voneinander abgegrenzt und in einem Analyserahmen integriert. Dieser Analyserahmen berücksichtigt landwirtschaftliche Betriebe, die von ihnen ausgeübten Tätigkeiten sowie deren Wirkungen hinsichtlich sozialer Ziele (Funktionen). Aus der Literatur werden zudem elf verschiedene Typen sozialer Funktionen abgeleitet. Daran knüpft eine empirische Fallstudie an, die basierend auf umfangreichen qualitativen Daten soziale Funktionen von Landwirtschaft in Dithmarschen analysiert und Zusammenhänge mit dem regionalen Größenstrukturwandel exploriert. Die Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, dass sich der mit dem Größenstrukturwandel verbundene, zunehmend industrielle Charakter landwirtschaftlicher Tätigkeiten sowie die abnehmende Anzahl von Landwirt/innen in ehrenamtlichen Strukturen negativ auf soziale Funktionen auswirken. Einkommensdiversifizierung gewinnt im Kontext des Größenstrukturwandels an Bedeutung und stärkt soziale Funktionen, wobei kapital- und arbeitsintensiven Tätigkeiten unterschiedlich wirken. Die Dissertation ermöglicht eine sachlichere Debatte zum Größenstrukturwandel und eine differenzierte Auseinandersetzung mit sozialen Funktionen von Landwirtschaft. / This dissertations’ starting point is the societal problematisation of the changing farm size structure in Germany. In the first article, a structuring content analysis of position papers on the post-2020 reform of the Common Agricultural Policy shows that the shift towards fewer and larger farms is framed as a problem of both equity and multifunctionality. The respective positions overlap when it comes to the principle of performance equity and the goal of maintaining as many (small) farms as possible. Many of the claims made in the debate about benefits of small farms are not supported by empirical research, and a research gap is identified, particularly regarding social functions of agriculture. The second article presents a systematic literature review. Different conceptual approaches to the social functions of agriculture are distinguished and integrated into an analytical framework. This framework considers farms, the activities they carry out and the functions that can be fulfilled through these activities. In addition, eleven different types of social functions are derived from the literature reviewed. The third article builds up on the second and presents an empirical case study, which analyses the social functions of agriculture in Dithmarschen and explores how these relate to regional structural change on the basis of an extensive qualitative data set. The results indicate that both, the increasingly industrial character of agricultural activities associated with the change in farm size structure and the decreasing number of farmers in voluntary structures have a negative impact on social functions. Income diversification becomes more important in the context of farm exits and strengthens social functions, although the effects of capital-intensive and labour-intensive activities differ. Overall, this dissertation facilitates a more objective debate on structural change and a differentiated analysis of the social functions of agriculture.

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