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中國太陽光能行業轉變–由演化經濟面解決分析 / China’s growing energy needs have turned renewable energy into a crucial factor necessary for its social stability and national security. This paper has been written with the understanding that the role renewable energy plays in the Chinese industry and market will be nothing less than critical in coming decades. Solar PV electricity is one of the most promising renewable energy technologies and is a fast growing industry. However in China there exists a huge gap between its market potential and current achievements in the field. This thesis paper depicts the evolutionary path China is currently undergoing from a heavy reliance on fossil produced energy to a balanced energy mix by examining its solar PV industry and market. Its major argument is that as transitional processes require long term vision and planning, the potential of china’s energy transition to solar energy needs to be assessed under a set of criteria that can trace a long term development path. By using the six core elements introduced by the evolutionary economics theory, this paper presents a unique in depth analysis of China’s transitional efforts toward solar PV grid parity. The paper has reached three major conclusions. The first and most important is that the Chinese central government seems to be making genuine efforts in promoting solar PV as one of the nation’s future energy sources. These efforts have been marked by assessing governmental legislation concerning Bounded Rationality issues and various incentive programs. The Renewable Energy Law and the Medium and Long-Term Development Plan have served as instrumental driving forces to the immature market. Local governments have shown significant commitment by providing substantial support to the PV industry as well to Co-evolutionary technologies such as inverters and batteries. Legislation has had limited success in handling Lock In issues such as connection to the national grid and real price reflection of conventional energy. The second conclusion is that although the market is still at an early stage of its development, it relies too heavily on Selection promotions, namely direct subsidies. Recent developments in the PV market growth in China can mostly be regarded to the Golden Sun program and the BIPV program. These efforts have been an important promoter in raising global awareness to the potential of its solar sector. However this form of subsidy does not present a long term sustainable growth solution. The lack of a national Fid in Tariff scheme (despite few specific provincial schemes) and existing problems concerning projects tendering process cause an imbalance in terms of market and industry Diversity. This unbalance appears in the form of lack of Diversity in project developers, being mostly local state owned or highly affiliated with the government enterprises. The third conclusion is that China’s government can and should give more focus on domestic Innovation. Currently the country’s national R&D investment is significantly lower than market leaders in Europe. China’s education system does not support more than several world class solar PV electricity research centers and its industry development relies on expensive imported technology and international collaboration. Most companies in the industry hold a short term development vision which affects technological Diversity, mostly in the upstream segments of polysilicon and ingot production. Lack of attention towards a diverse range of future PV and Co-evolutionary technologies limits industry development to specific sectors that have low technological barriers. The paper concludes that while China is well positioned for further expansion of its market it still lacks in specific aspects of its transitional path. This analysis is unique as it presents not only an up to date market and industry status but also refers to their future growth potential. This paper presents a wide range of aspects that directly affect solar PV’s future development. Its true value lies within the usage of the evolutionary economics approach as a theoretical framework, which allows us to gain better understanding of how the different aspects related to the solar PV world affect each other and the fitness of this historic transition.

本文主要探討存戶決策對銀行投資組合決策之影響，及其可能引發之系統性風險的程度。以代表性銀行開始分析，假設銀行投資於安全性資產與風險性資產，而存戶依其決策可能會產生兩個均衡同時存在之情形。本文利用演化的力量，發展出以風險性資產報酬率作為均衡選擇之標準：當風險性資產報酬率低於某一水準時，擠兌的均衡會單獨發生。並比較銀行考慮擠兌發生可能性時，其投資組合承擔風險之程度，及可能引發的銀行倒閉機率大小。推廣至二家模型，發現愈多家銀行在作投資決策考慮存戶擠兌之可能性，愈會增加經濟體系中之系統性風險，顯示銀行與存戶之衝突與金融體系之脆弱性。最後討論資本適足性管制與央行最後貸款人角色能否有效降低銀行倒閉機率。

一個片段在序列中重複出現的現像稱之為「重覆性樣式」。這樣的重覆性樣式在許多不同的領域像是音樂分析以及生物資訊演算法上伴演著重要的角色。 在音樂分析上，重覆性樣式即為一段連續的音符在樂曲中重覆出現的現象。在樂理中，這樣的重覆出現的片段即稱之為「音樂動機」，在貝多芬的第五交響曲中，即利用四個簡單的音符“sol sol sol mi”做為音樂動機，並利用這個音樂動機創作出整首交響曲。分析音樂的動機將有助於應用在音樂檢索上為音樂建立出適合的索引。 動機的型式並非永遠一成不變，作曲者可能透過些微的變化，在樂曲中重覆出現。重覆性的片段在序列中未產生任何變變化而重覆出現的現象稱之為「精確重覆」；在序列中的重覆片段果存在些微的變化，且這些變化的序列皆與某一個序列相似則稱之為「近似重覆」。 精確重覆性樣式及近似重覆性樣式的探勘，已在過去的許多研究中被提出。在本篇論文中，我們研究一種新的重覆性樣式，在每個重覆出現的序列中，都和前一個出現的序列相似，而非與某一個特定的序列相似，這樣的重覆樣式稱之為「演化重覆性樣式」。本篇論文提出演算重覆性樣式的問題，並提出兩種基本的演算法，改善在探勘演化重覆性樣式時的效率；最後結合兩種演算法的特性，提出一種綜合演算法，同時擁有上述兩個演算法的優點，獲得更好的效率。最後並在實驗中證明我們所提出的演算法能夠得到良好的執行效率。 / A repeating pattern is a substring of a sequence, which repeats several times in the sequence. Repeating patterns play an important role in a variety of applications such as music analysis and bioinformatics. In music analysis, a repeating pattern is a sequence of notes repeats several times in a music object. In musicology, a repeating pattern corresponds to a motive which is a salient recurring segment of notes that may be used to construct all or some of the melody and themes. The well-know segment "sol-sol-sol-mi" in Beethoven's Symphony no 5 is an example of motives. The repeating pattern is an efficient semantic representation to index music sequences for content-based music retrieval. The repetition of a motive may have some variations and not necessarily be an exact repetition in the music object. For example, motivic development is a composition technique that allows a composer to generate the entire music based on a motive which repeats in the form of variations. Moreover, it is possible that a motive may evolve in certain types of composition. Some exact and approximate repeating pattern mining algorithms have been developed. In this paper, a new form of approximate repeating patterns, evolutionary repeating patterns is investigated. In evolutionary repeating pattern, each instance is similar to the previous one, rather than the original pattern. We proposed two approaches, matrix-based and Apriori-based ones, to discover the evolutionary repeating patterns. Moreover, we also present a hybrid approach to combine features of the above two approaches. Scale-up experiments show that the proposed algorithms perform well.

本文主要探討廠商在進行生產活動而使用共同資源時，其所採取之防制策略及其市場均衡。以兩廠模型的賽局分析開始，分別假設防制投入與防制成效成固定關係與成正向關係。在防制投入與防制成效成固定關係下，探討廠商對於防制污染所採取的競爭策略和政府之污染稅政策是否有效；在防制投入與防制成效成正向關係下，分析廠商之間「只對總防制投入達成協議」、「對總產量與總防制投入都達成協議」之兩種勾結合作方式下，其防制污染策略及其均衡情形的不同。最後引進市場上存在有限數目多家廠商的演化性賽局模型，分析有防制污染投入與沒有防制污染投入這兩類廠商的家數比例如何隨時間而變動，並比較單期賽局之均衡與動態分析之長期均衡。

現今的科技產品環境，當新產品進入市場時，因為舊有產品使用者建構的網路外部性下，不容易開拓其市佔率。過去討論網路外部性的文獻中，大多僅探討一項新產品與舊有產品競爭的情況。然而，現實中往往出現多項產品同時在市場上競爭。本文模型建立在Jassen and Mendys (2007) 上，來探討擁有較高網路外部性之舊產品，面臨同時出現兩項品質較好之新產品時，市場佔有率的分佈樣貌。此模型中，存在於市場上的消費者對品質及網路外部性的偏好為異質，且模型中的消費者每期皆會重複購買該產品。本文發現，三項產品同時存在於市場上的穩定均衡解不存在，且市場均衡解將會出現在僅剩品質最優的新產品及既存舊產品共存的市場下，品質居中的產品無法存活於市場。新產品品質與舊產品品質間的差距不大時，舊產品仍然主導市場；若新產品品質明顯優於既有產品品質時，則新產品會拿下整個市場。且當品質優勢超過八分之一時，新產品將很快地占領整個市場。 / The market today is a harsh environment for new firms introducing new technologies into it, because users of existing products have already constructed a tough network which cannot be shaken easily. On network externality, previous researches only analyzed the condition of one new product competing with one old product. However, in reality, there are often more than two products competing with each other in the market. Based on Jassen and Mendys (2007), our model further discusses the outcome of the competition between two new superior products and an old inferior product. Consumers have different preferences of the quality and network externality of a product, and buy one product in each period. The outcome reveals that there is no stable equilibrium solution, when three products co-exist in the market. Stable equilibrium solution exists when there are only two products, the best one and the worst one, in the market. The product with middle quality cannot survive. Also, old products can still possess the most part of the market when the quality differs subtly between new and old products. But when the quality of new products is apparently higher than that of old products, then new products could take over the whole market. We discovered that the quality difference must be greater than 0.125 for new products to dominate the market quickly.

這一篇論文是說明矩陣中的元素如果滿足熱帶格雷斯曼就可以將它用樹型圖表示。第二章簡述熱帶數學的基本運算和介紹超曲面，作為熱帶格雷斯曼的先備知識。第三章介紹演化樹，在第二節中用兩種方法重建演化樹，第一種方法UPGMA是要在特定的條件下所建造的演化樹才會正確，第二種方法是利用矩陣中兩個物種間的距離假設的樹型配置圖，解聯立方程組得到各段距離，第三節中先介紹代數幾何中的格雷斯曼再聯結到熱帶幾何中的格雷斯曼。第四章是將第二種方法寫成Python程式，輸入矩陣中的元素，如果滿足熱帶格雷斯曼，就可以顯示它可能的樹型圖以及算出距離。

本研究主要目的為實際了解家中有0-4歲嬰幼兒的台灣雙薪家庭父母親之親職分工及其親職行為的比較。研究結果發現，就整體而言，台灣雙薪家庭父母親的親職分工仍由母親負責較多的親職照顧，此外，母親與嬰幼兒的情感連結亦較為緊密。在檢視父母親教養信念之後，發現無論父母所持為何種教養觀，皆由母親負責較多的親職責任；另一方面，在基本照顧及情感支持的向度上，父母親的親職行為皆會因教養信念不同而展現差異，其中較為特別的是有關父親的部份，持現代教養觀的父親在基本照顧及情感支持的親職向度，皆較持傳統教養觀的父親參與更多。至於在其他親職向度（常規教導、親子遊戲及身體接觸），父母親則未因教養信念不同而展現親職施為的差異。

國立政治大學研究所八十七學年度第二學期碩士論文提要 研究所別:資訊管理學系碩士班 研究生:陳柏明 指導教授:楊建民博士 論文名稱:運用演化範例學習法進行台灣股票上市公司經營績效判斷之研究 論文提要內容 股票上市公司的經營績效，對於廣大的投資人、以及銀行及債權人，甚至是公司內的管理人員來說，都是相當重要的資訊。投資大眾可以做為投資計畫的參考，銀行及債權人能對授信及放款制訂適當的準則與採取必要的措施。而公司內部管理階層若能及早發現問題，更可針對問題訂定未來的營運計畫，確保公司的穩定。公司經營績效的評量方法有很多，通常採用財務報表分析來瞭解公司的財務狀況與經營成果。本研究則提出一個演化範例學習法的架構，用來分析財務報表所能提供的資訊，進而判斷公司經營績效。 範例學習法透過線索的選定並對例子集加以分類，進而得到法則。線索的選取將會對決策樹的建立有極大的影響，因此如何得到優良且適當的線索，是在建立決策樹時的重要工作。而遺傳演算法提供了一種演化的方式，透過其演化的機制，一步步的尋找較佳的近似解，因此可以用來進行範例學習法的建樹過程的演化，並改良線索的選用，此架構稱為演化範例學習法。因此本研究希望透過演化式的範例學習法來分析財務報表申所報導的各項財務資料所能提供之資訊。並選取台灣地區股票上市公司之財務報表進行分析，研究所得的結論在於判斷未來這些公司經營績效之變化，讓投資者、債權人與公司管理人員能夠及早因應並採取有效的措施。 本研究以民國七十六年至民國入十七年的股票上市公司財務比率資料進行演化實驗。測試結果顯示 (1)採用本演算法分析績效的命申率可達六成以上，最"高可達到約七成，且在一定的世代內，命申率將隨著逐步提升，(2)初始線索的選取不影響演化後期的命申率，(3)淘汰率高低將造成演化過程命申率的波動程度，(4)由新線索的加入，發現每股淨值、淨值報酬率等以往較不常使用的線索具有一定的分析能力。最後並將針對本研究提出相關建議與未來值得研究的課題。

本篇論文研究演化的動態過程中的隨機穩定性。演化過程中,突變(mutation)或變異隨時可能會發生。因此,演化中不存在安定(steady)或是穩定(stable)的狀態。但是當突變機率趨近於零時,有些狀態在長期間比其他狀態容易出現在過程中為人所觀察到。這些狀態稱為隨機穩定狀態(stochastically stable state)。我們發展出一具有一般性的演算法來找出所有的隨機穩定狀態。有別於傳統演算法,這套演算法大幅降低計算所需次數。透過這套演算法,我們定義了一個集合: stable set。我們發現,stable set包涵了所有的隨機穩定狀態。同時,我們也提出數個隨機穩定狀態的充份條件。這些發現代表著,分析演化模型的假設及均衡(equilibria)性質之間的關係是可行的。 / We study the behaviors of the evolutionary models with persistant noises through a general algorithm which describes the relationships among the stochastic potentials. That is, by constructing a closed loop on the graph of the directed trees, we show that the comparison among the stochastic potential is equivalent to the comparison among one-step transition costs. Hence, we are able to systematically analyze the properties of the stochastically stable states. Our main nding is that the set of the stochastically stable states is contained in a set, which we dene as a stable set. Each state in this set is difcult to escape from and is resistant to the attraction of any other states in the stable set. Based on this nding, related sufficient conditions for the stochastically stable states are presented, and some results in the literature are also reinterpreted. In addition, we show that this algorithm drastically reduces the necessary steps for characterizing the stochastically stable states. This means that the analysis on relationships between the assumptions of the model and the properties of equilibria are possible and promising.