協同規劃、預測與再補貨(Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment; CPFR)，是目前供應鏈管理下重要的討論議題；台灣近年來由於加入WTO與製造業外移使競爭壓力加劇，全球運籌需求提升，使廠商間的合作更加密切，且近年來企業資訊環境與基礎建設逐漸成熟，有助於協同商務之發展。在CPFR流程與供應鏈協同作業環境下，一個供需雙方協同且績效良好的銷售預測具有關鍵的重要性，是管理決策與協同合作時的重要依據；但是多數的企業並沒有一個結構化、有系統化的預測流程及方法，進行多點且不同方法之預測，這樣的銷售預測較無穩定的品質，亦較難提供管理者合理的數據解釋。 在CPFR流程下，強調買賣雙方透過完整、即時資訊的交流，進行短期、單一銷售預測，以提供雙方後續訂單預測、訂單補貨等決策的依據。本研究利用演算法（類神經網路和演化策略法）找出更適合混合性預測架構的解釋變數，再以較適合於實數解之演化策略法於修改黃蘭禎（2004）的三階段之預測模型架構，最後採用實驗方法，進行模型績效驗證。 / Collaborative Planning, forecasting and replenishment (CPFR) is an important issue of supply chain management currently. Because of the severer competition resulted from entrance into WTO and industry integration, cooperation between Taiwanese companies becomes more intensely; enterprises’ information environment and foundation construction attain to maturity also boost the development of collaboration business. In CPRF process and supply chain operation environment, it is critical that a good performance sale forecasting collaborated by both supplier and buyer sides, and it is also the basis of policy decision and collaboration. However, the majority of the companies lack for a structural and systematical forecasting process to proceed with a multi-points forecasting with different methods. This kind of sale forecasting is less of stable quality and is harder to provide the managers a reasonable statistics explanation. Under the CPRF process, both buyers and sellers are able to obtain the short-term and single sale forecasting by real time information communication. Furthermore, the follow-up order forecasting and replenishment strategy decision can be also established through this process. This research finds the variables that are more suitable to the mixed structure by usage of the algorithms, ANN and Evolution Strategy. And this research uses Evolution Strategy that is more suitable to real question to improve the mixed structure of Huang (2004). In the end, experimentation is adopted in order to verify the performance of the model.

本研究以日商在台子公司為個案，探討多國企業核心流程之動態演化與創新研究。分析個案子公司的演化與創新過程，本研究從子公司的組織、母子公司關係、子公司角色、以及其核心流程，發現以下五點： 一. 對子公司的組織管理，母公司運用彈性的管理導向，有助於發揮子公司資源與能力。 二、母公司與子公司互相依存的關係，得以讓母公司可善用地主國的優勢，提昇多國企業整體營運的績效；亦能減少多國企業管理上的困難，甚至有助於多國企業的創新速度。 三、子公司的領導統御的務實化與主動性，有助於專業化資源與能力的提高。透過角色的改變，可擴大國際職責的參與機會。 四、相對於各行其是的多國企業，具有整合執行能力的子公司，可以為多國企業創造價值，並成為知識流通的來源。 五、子公司的動態演化，有助於多國企業的當地知識來源及國際化的拓展。 / This thesis has used Japanese subsidiary in Taiwan as case to study the dynamic evolution and innovation through the core process of MNC. From the view point of the organization control of alleged subsidiary, relationship of parent-subsidiary, subsidiary role in MNC, and its core process of subsidiary, we conclude the major findings are： (1). For the purpose of organization management, Parent company of MNC has adopted the flexible managerial patterns to facilitate subsidiary’s capability and its resources accumulation. (2). Relationship between parent and its subsidiary is interdependence. This kind of relationship helps Parent company who can utilize the net ownership advantages of host country to increase the total operational performance of MNC. It also helps to reduce the management difficulty toward subsidiary of MNC and even helps to increase the speed of innovation. (3). Top management of subsidiary shows their management skill with realistic and takes initiative in helping subsidiary to increase its capability and resources. Through the change of charter or its strategic roles, subsidiary can expand its participation of international responsibility. (4). Compare with other MNCs, subsidiary which has the capability of global integration can generate value-creation activities for MNC. Subsidiary will become the source of knowledge flow for its parent company. (5). The core process of subsidiary with dynamic evolution provides MNC with domestic knowledge. This evolution also helps MNC in internationalization development.