My dissertation consists of three essays. The central theme of these essays is the psychological factors and biases that affect the portfolio allocation decision. The first essay entitled, “Are women more risk-averse than men?” examines the gender difference in risk aversion as revealed by actual investment choices. Using a sample that controls for biases in the level of education and finance knowledge, there is evidence that when individuals have the same level of education, irrespective of their knowledge of finance, women are no more risk-averse than their male counterparts. However, the gender-risk aversion relation is also a function of age, income, wealth, marital status, race/ethnicity and the number of children in the household. The second essay entitled, “Can diversification be learned?” investigates if investors who have superior investment knowledge are more likely to actively seek diversification benefits and are less prone to allocation biases. Results of cross-sectional analyses suggest that knowledge of finance increases the likelihood that an investor will efficiently allocate his direct investments across the major asset classes; invest in foreign assets; and hold a diversified equity portfolio. However, there is no evidence that investors who are more financially sophisticated make superior allocation decisions in their retirement savings. The final essay entitled, “The demographics of non-participation”, examines the factors that affect the decision not to hold stocks. The results of probit regression models indicate that when individuals are highly educated, the decision to not participate in the stock market is less related to demographic factors. In particular, when individuals have attained at least a college degree and have advanced knowledge of finance, they are significantly more likely to invest in equities either directly or indirectly through mutual funds or their retirement savings. There is also evidence that the decision not to hold stocks is motivated by short-term market expectations and the most recent investment experience. The findings of these essays should increase the body of research that seeks to reconcile what investors actually do (positive theory) with what traditional theories of finance predict that investors should do (normative theory).

Abstract Background: ​The disposition effect is a well-documented effect in behavioral finance, first brought to light in 1985 by Shefrin and Statman. The effect is caused by investors valuating unrealized gains and losses differently which can be connected to concepts like the prospect theory, Tverksy and Kahneman (1979), and loss aversion Kahneman et al. (1991). To examine the existence of the disposition effect in Sweden, the authors of this thesis performed a study where the participants played a stock simulation game. Purpose: ​The purpose of this study is to examine whether the investor experience plays a crucial part in the mitigation of the disposition effect. Method: ​The study of this thesis is conducted by collecting primary data using a quantitative research strategy by utilizing a virtual trading game and a post-experiment survey. Following this, the data derived from this experiment is used to calculate the disposition effect by calculating the Proportion of Gains Realized and Proportion of Losses Realized of the participants. To fulfill the purpose, t-tests in the form of one-sample t-tests and independent samples t-test were used to determine if the results of our study were statistically significant. Furthermore, Spearman correlations were also implemented to test for correlations between subgroups and the disposition effect. Conclusion: ​Statistically significant results confirm that there was a disposition effect among the subject group at a 1% confidence level. While there was a difference in disposition effect between the experienced and inexperienced groups, the difference was not statistically significant which could be explained by a small sample size and a subjective measure of experience.

<div>In models of stock returns where investors with extrapolative beliefs on future stocks (e.g., Barberis and Shleifer (2003)), price momentum and the value premium both arise naturally. The key insight from these models is that, the strength and timing of these cross- sectional return anomalies will be conditional on the degree of extrapolative bias. More specifically, higher (lower) degree of over-extrapolation leading to stronger value premium (momentum).</div><div> Using the time-series variation in the degree of over-extrapolation documented in Cassella and Gulen (2018), I first directly test the hypothesis that both value and momentum stem from over-extrapolation in financial markets. I find that the average momentum return is 1.00% (0.10%) per month when the degree of over-extrapolation is low (high), whereas the average value premium is 0.51% (1.29%) per month following low (high) levels of over- extrapolation.</div><div> Furthermore, I extend the model in Barberis and Shleifer (2003) by having both within- equity extrapolators and across asset-class extrapolator. The extension is based on the idea that when extrapolators move capital in and out of the equity market, they disproportionately buy growth stocks in good times and sell value stocks in bad times. The model predicts that the cross-sectional value premium should be stronger following states of large market- wide over- or undervaluation due to additional extrapolative demand to buy or sell. This prediction is tested empirically and I find strong support for it. The value premium is 3.42% per month following market-wide undervaluation and 1.70% per month following market overvaluation. In the remainder 60% to 80% of the sample, when the market is neither significantly over or under-valued, there is no significant value premium in a monthly horizon and the value premium is only 0.54% per month in an annual horizon. I provide some suggestive evidence regarding portfolio return dynamics, investor expectation errors and fund flows that supports the extrapolative demand channel. Overall, this work examines more closely at the effect of extrapolative beliefs on the cross-section of asset prices and offers some support for extrapolation-based asset-pricing theories.</div><div><br></div>

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Denna studie granskar aktieanalytikers arbetsmetodik, deras påverkan på aktiemarknaden samt deras upplevda yrkesproblematik. För att åskådliggöra detta har vi genomfört tio djupintervjuer med aktörer från dagens finansbransch. Fem analytiker från de större analyshusen samt fem experter från diverse relaterade finansområden har intervjuats. Målsättningen är att granska analytiker utifrån dessa tio respondenters olika perspektiv och därmed tydliggöra analytikers roll i det finansiella maskineriet. Detta uppnås genom att fokusera på tre delområden: Hur analytiker faktiskt praktiserar sitt yrke och vad för vetenskaplig förankring de har (1), vad de har för påverkan på aktiemarknaden (2) samt vilka svårigheter de upplever att yrket möter i dagsläget och en nära framtid (3). Studien påvisar att variablerna bakom aktievärderingarna är viktigare än värderingsverktyget i sig. Analytikers verktyg för analys är därför bristande vilket har sitt ursprung i företagsekonomins ofullständiga finansiella teorier. De aktörerna med störst påverkan på marknaden är de professionella och institutionella placerarna. Det framgår även att analytiker inte har någon större påverkan på marknaden, vilket var studiens utgångpunkt. Småsparare bör vara medvetna om dessa fakta och inte blint följa riktkurser eller rekommendationer. Slutligen kan studien påvisa att analytiker inte befinner sig i en helt oberoende ställning gentemot arbetsgivare, kunder och bolagen de analyserar. Att konstant värna om dessa relationer leder till direkta och indirekta agentkostnader som slutligen drabbar kunderna och analyshuset. / This paper examines analysts' methodology, their impact on the stock market and their perceived professional problems. To illustrate this, we have conducted ten interviews with profiles from today's financial industry. Five analysts from larger investment banks and five experts from various related financial areas were interviewed. The goal is to examine analysts from these ten respondents' perspectives and thereby clarify the analyst’s role in the financial machinery. This is achieved by focusing on three areas: How analysts actually practice their profession and what scientific basis they have (1), what their impact on the stock market is (2) and the difficulties they believe that the profession is facing today and in the near future (3). The paper shows that the variables behind set value of the stock are more important than the tools of how to set the value itself. The analysts’ tools for analyzing are therefore lacking which can be derived from the fact that the financial theories within the community of business administration often are incomplete. The profiles with the greatest impact on the market are the professional and institutional investors. Furthermore, the paper shows that analysts do not have a major influence on the market, which was the study's starting point. Small investors should be aware of these facts and not blindly follow target prices or recommendations. Finally, the study shows how analysts do not have an unbiased relationship towards their employers, clients or the companies they analyze. Constantly trying to preserve these relations leads to direct and indirect agency costs that ultimately affect the clients and investment banks.

Den här studien undersöker hur vinstvarningar påverkar stora och små företag. För att förklara dess påverkan på företagen har den effektiva marknadshypotesen och behavioral finance använts som grund. Avgränsningen har gjorts till Stockholmsbörsen då inga tidigare studier haft fokus på den. Empirin visar att företag i Large Cap påverkas med i snitt -4,63% och företagen i Small Cap med -8,42%. Large Cap visade signifikanta abnorma avkastningar under eventdatumet och dagen efter medan Small Cap endast visade signifikans under eventdatumet. Vid en portföljjämförelse mellan de två listorna ligger resultatet i linje med den effektiva marknadsteorin. Däremot vid detaljerade mappningar av företagens aktier kan anomalier hittas som kan förklaras av olika psykologiska fenomen inom behavioral finance. / This paper studies how profit warnings affect largeand small companies. The efficient market hypothesis and behavioral finance was used in orderto explain the affect of the profit warnings on the companies’ stocks. The boundary wasdetermined to be the Stockholm OMX since no previous studies had been performed in this particular fashion. The data demostrates that companies within Large Cap are affected with an average of -4,63% and the companies in Small Cap with -8,42%. Large Cap showed significantabnormal returns during the event date and the day after while Small Cap only showed significance during the event date. A portfolio comparison between the two lists reveals results that are in line with the efficient market hypothesis. However when using detailed data of thecompanies stocks some anomalies can be found, which can be explained by psychological phenomena within behavioral finance.

Bakgrund: Den heliga fastemånaden Ramadan innebär stora omställningar i cirka en och en halv miljard muslimers liv. Detta har, med bakgrund i den effektiva marknadshypotesen, föranlett flera olika undersökningar av eventuellt återkommande prisavvikelser i samband med Ramadan, en så kallad Ramadaneffekt. Tidigare studier visar dock på något motstridiga resultat vilket gör att vidare forskning inom området är motiverad. De till viss del förändrade livsvillkor som Ramadan innebär har i tidigare studier använts som förklaringsvariabler, något som dock kan ifrågasättas och undersökas vidare med utgångspunkt i Behavioral finance. Syfte: Denna studie ämnar undersöka om det existerar någon Ramadaneffekt på 17 olika muslimska aktiemarknader samt att kritiskt granska tidigare studier inom området och förklaringsvärdet i fastans fysiska och psykiska påverkan vid en eventuell Ramadaneffekt. Genomförande: Studien är av både kvalitativ och kvantitativ karaktär med huvudsaklig tyngdpunkt i statistiska analyser av studiens datamaterial. Regressionsanalys med dummyvariabler utgör den statistiska metoden och resultatet analyseras genom att applicera Behavioral finance till dokumentstudien för att försöka förklara de statistiska resultaten. Slutsats: Studien finner att endast den pakistanska aktiemarknaden uppvisar en signifikant prisavvikelse under Ramadan. Detta ligger inte i linje med tidigare forskning. Tidigare använda förklaringsvariabler tycks inte heller de ha något stort förklaringsvärde då fastans fysiska och psykiska påverkan torde yttra sig likadant i samtliga länder men effekterna på aktiemarknaderna skiljer sig åt. / Background: Ramadan, the holy month of fasting, means many changes in the lives of approximately one and a half billion Muslims. This, with background in the efficient market hypothesis, has resulted in several studies on potentially reoccurring price deviations in connection with Ramadan, a so-called Ramadan effect. Previous studies show somewhat conflicting results, which motivates further research within the subject. The changed routines of daily life during Ramadan have previously been used as the explanatory variable for the Ramadan effect. The authors question the validity of this relationship and therefore further examine it with an argumentative base in Behavioral finance. Aim: This study aims to investigate whether a Ramadan effect exists on any of 17 Muslim stock markets. Furthermore, it aims to critically analyze previous research within the area and examine whether the physical and psychological effects of fasting have any explanatory value in an eventual existence of a Ramadan effect. Completion: The study uses both a qualitative and quantitative approach with a focus on statistical analysis of the study’s numerical data. Regression analysis with dummy variables represents the statistical method and the results are analyzed by applying Behavioral finance to the literature study in order to explain the results. Conclusion: The only market that shows a systematic price deviation during Ramadan is Pakistan. This is not coherent with previous research. Furthermore, the previously used explanatory variables do not seem to have any great explanatory value since the variables are coherent across the markets whereas the effects on the stock markets are not.

The nature of employee retirement plans has changed dramatically over the past fifteen years as employers have been replacing traditional defined benefit retirement plans with defined contribution plans like the 401(k) plan. This dissertation is focused on the impact that 401(k) plan have on household asset accumulation. The first essay looks at how much asset accumulation can be attributed to 401(k) plans as opposed to other factors such as demographics and saver type characteristics. Overall, the conclusions are consistent with recent research that says these plans induce a reshuffling of assets rather than being funded through a reduction in consumption. Controlling for cohort effects reduces the amount of wealth attributable to 401(k) eligibility to a negligible (and statistically insignificant) amount. The second essay considers the impact that borrowing against the assets in 401(k) plan might have on household asset accumulation. Most personal finance advice warns against borrowing against a retirement plan because of the potential negative impact on retirement wealth. This is especially true for borrowers who are also undisciplined savers and do not or cannot maintain their retirement plan contributions during loan period or who separate from their employers before the loan is repaid. For good savers a retirement plan loan only has a modest impact on retirement wealth. Only modest make-up contributions would need to be made to mitigate the impact of a retirement plan loan. It seems that many borrowers may be using retirement loans because they are in financial difficulty. It also appears that borrowers are trying to maintain their retirement savings, but their asset accumulation within broader measures of wealth is below that of households that do not have outstanding 401(k) loans.

<p>Introduction: In 1998, the pension system was changed and the so called PPM system was introduced. The PPM system is partly fund-based, partly distribution-based. There are approximately 700 different investment funds to choose between, at a maximum five for each individual. For persons who are not familiar with the financial market, the choice might be difficult. The lions’ part of the investors do not seem to have an active strategy. Are the reasons for that the complexity of the system or which factors do influence the choice between different fund strategies?</p><p>Problem area: The problem area of this thesis was to clarify the following questions: Why do not more peoples entitled to the Swedish PPM system make active investments and changes between different fund options? On the individual level, which factors influence how actively placements and changes are made within the PPM system?</p><p>Propose: Our mission was to investigate the reasons for the lack of activity of the individuals entitled to the benefits of the Swedish PPM system.</p><p>Methods: Our main approach was to quantitatively analyse the relations and to draw conclusion based on the questionnaire answers from a cohort of 100 respondents living in the city of Stockholm. The results were statistically analysed by using the computerised program SPSS.</p><p>Results: The lack of knowledge, experience and interest seem to be the factors most positively associated with the lack of initiative to actively make use of the possibilities offered by the PPM system.</p><p>Conclusions: The quantitative analysis performed indicates that a large majority of the Swedish population lack the qualities needed to manage the money obtainable within the Premium Pension System. It is evident that there are individual differences depending on educational level, income, age and risk attitude.</p> / <p>Inledning: 1998 reformerades det svenska pensionssystemet och det så kallade premiepensionssystemet infördes, som dels är fondbaserat, dels distributionsbaserat. I systemet finns omkring 700 olika fonder emellan spararen kan välja, maximalt fem. För en individ som inte är hemma på den finansiella marknaden kan valet av fonder vara ett svårt beslut. Är systemets komplexitet orsaken till att merparten av spararna inte har en aktiv strategi för sin premiepension eller vilka faktorer är det som styr detta?</p><p>Problemområde: De problemområden som avsågs klargöras genom denna studie var: Varför väljer inte fler svenska premiepensionssparare att aktivt placera och byta fonder? Vilka individuella faktorer styr hur aktiv individen är i sitt placerande av premiepensionsmedlen?</p><p>Syfte: Syftet var att undersöka orsakerna till varför merparten av de svenska premiepensionsspararna inte agerar aktivt i valet av fonder samt vilka individuella faktorer som är nav betydelse för graden av aktivitet i premiepensionssparandet.</p><p>Metodval: En kvantitativ ansats har huvudsakligen använts i denna uppsats då syftet var att uppdaga samband och dra slutsatser baserat på enkätsvar från en stor urvalsgrupp. Urvalet utgjordes av ett bekvämlighetsurval med 100 deltagande respondenter i stockholmsregionen. Det empiriska materialet bearbetades statistiskt i dataprogrammet SPSS.</p><p>Resultat: De faktorer författarna funnit haft störst inverkan för aktiviteten i premiepensionsvalet är kunskap, erfarenhet samt intresse. Avsaknaden av dessa antas vara vad som resulterar i många av de svenska premiepensionsspararnas passivitet i premiepensionsvalet.</p><p>Slutsatser: Den kvantitativa undersökning som genomförts indikerar att stora delar av den svenska befolkningen saknar de egenskaper som krävs för förvaltande av premiepensionen. Det framgår även att det föreligger skillnader beroende på bland annat individens utbildning, inkomst, ålder, kön samt åsikter kring risktagande.</p>

As corporate sponsorship of sporting events becomes a more popular marketing tool, the price tag associated with these sponsorship agreements has steepened considerably. Over the past thirty years, sponsorship has become an integral part of the Olympic Games. In this paper, we employ an event study methodology to assess the impact of both the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympic Games and the performance of Canadian Olympic athletes on the shareholder value of national Olympic sponsors. We hypothesize, in line with current behavioral finance research, that the national Olympic sponsors will capitalize on the positive mood and attention associated with the Games in such a way that Olympic sponsorship will positively impact shareholder value. However, we find that, from a stock return perspective, corporate sponsorship of the Vancouver 2010 Olympic Games is not a value-adding investment. We find that while the market index is positively impacted by both the Olympic Games and Canadian medalists, there is a negative and significant impact of the Olympic Games on national sponsors. Furthermore, Canadian medalists have a positive impact on the stock returns of three individual sponsors, but these winners' effects are negative for two sponsors and insignificant for another two sponsors.