In the past few decades, wildfires have increased in size and severity in the Southwest and across the western US. These recent trends in fire behavior are a drastic change in arid, ponderosa pine and mixed conifer forests of the Southwest compared with tree-ring records of fire history for the past ~ 400 years. This study presents a late Holocene record (~ 3,000 years) of fire history and related changes in fire regimes with climate variability over annual to multi-decadal time scales. Tree-ring and alluvial-sediment sampling sites were paired in four small, tributary basins located in the western San Juan Mountains of Colorado. In our study sites, tree-ring records show that fire return intervals were longer and fire behavior was more severe on the north-facing slopes with relatively dense mixed conifer stands. Increased fire barriers and steep topography decreased the fire frequency and extent relative to gentle terrain elsewhere in the range and leading to a lack of synchrony among fire years in different parts of the study area. The alluvial-sediment record showed four peaks in high-severity fire activity over the past 3,000 years ranging between 200 - 400 years in length. The timing of peaks coincided with decadal-length drought episodes and were often preceded by multiple decades of above average winter precipitation. The sampling of alluvial-sediment and tree-ring data allowed for site-level comparisons between recent alluvial deposits and specific fire years interpreted from the tree-ring records. We found good correspondence between the type of fire-related sediment deposit (i.e. geomorphic response) in the alluvial record and the extent of mixed and high-severity fire estimated from the tree-ring record, and the correspondence was well-supported by the debris flow probability model results. The two paleofire data tend to represent particular components of the historical fire regime, with alluvial-sediments biased towards infrequent, high-severity events during recent millennia, and the tree-ring record biased toward lower severity fires during recent centuries. The combined analyses of different paleofire proxy types in the same study sites, therefore, can enhance and expand our understanding of fire and climate history beyond what is possible with either proxy alone.

The stratigraphic record of lahars in the Whangaehu River reveals that in the past 180,000 years this route has been one of the main conduits for lahars from Mount Ruapehu, the highest active andesitic stratovolcano in the Central North Island of New Zealand. Both debris flows and hyperconcentrated flows have engulfed surfaces up to 160 km distance from the Volcano. Eight episodes of laharic activity are recognized by the distinctive lithology and similar age of their deposits. The newly defined upper Pleistocene Whangaehu Formation provides evidence for the earliest lahar event in the Valley, c. 180,000- 140,000 years ago. There is only meagre evidence for laharic activity following this event until the Ohakean and Holocene, although two new informally named deposits - the Mangatipona pumice sand (c. 37,000 years B.P.) and Apitian lahars (c. 32,000-25,500 years B.P) - are recognized, of minor extent. The formerly defined late Quaternary Te Heuheu (c. 25,500- 14,700 years B.P.), Tangatu (c. 14,700-5,370 years B.P.), Manutahi (c. 5 ,370-3,4600 years B.P.), Mangaio (c. 4,600 years B.P.) and Onetapu (< c. 1,850 years B.P.) Formations are here described and interpreted. Triggering mechanisms for lahar deposits are distinguished based on lithological criteria. (a) Bouldery deposits in the Whangaehu Formation are interpreted to have been emplaced by a single highly competent debris flow triggered by a southerly-directed flank collapse at Mount Ruapehu. This debris flow was competent enough to transport boulders up to 2 m in diameter over 140 km from the Volcano. Bouldery deposits are also recognized in the Onetapu Formation, but are restricted to higher gradient surfaces on the Mount Ruapehu ring plain. The Onetapu Formation deposits are interpreted to have been emplaced by lahars resulting from catastrophic drainage of Crater Lake, which occupies the active crater on Mount Ruapehu. (b) Pebbly and sandy deposits are interpreted to have been emplaced by low competence debris flows and hyperconcentrated flows. These lahar deposits are recognized in all formations described. The lithology in these deposits is commonly pumice and they are interpreted to have been triggered by eruptions and/or high rainfall events at the Volcano. Formations, and individual members within Formations, were dated by radiocarbon dating of organic material found below, within or above lahar deposits, or by coverbed stratigraphy. Both rhyolitic and andesitic tephras provided recognizable time planes in the late Quaternary coverbeds overlying lahar deposits. In this study quantitative analysis of quartz abundance, which is shown to vary between loesses and palaeosols, is used as an indirect means of establishing a surrogate for past climate changes which have been correlated to the deep sea oxygen isotope curve. A minimum age for the newly defined Whangaehu Formation is established by this method. The accumulation rate for lahars in the Whangaehu River has accelerated from 1 km3 every c. 23,000 years in the past c. 160,000 years to 1 km3 in 589 years in the past c. 2,000 years. This acceleration probably results from the increased frequency of lahars in the River following the development of Crater Lake c. 2,000 years B.P. According to this pattern an estimated 0.17 km3 volume of lahars could be anticipated over the next 100 years. If the 2,000 year accumulation rate were to be met over the next 100 years there would be 170 lahars of l0[superscript]6 m3 in this time interval , or 17 lahars of 10[superscript]7 m3 (or 1.7 lahars of 10[superscript]8 m3). The largest reported volume for an historic lahar is 10[superscript]6 m3 and these have occurred on average once every 30 years. The accumulation rate for historic lahars is 0.0054 km3 in 100 years. Therefore, although the accumulation rate appears to have slowed down, further large lahars with magnitudes 10 or 100 times greater than those witnessed could be expected.

The stratigraphic record of lahars in the Whangaehu River reveals that in the past 180,000 years this route has been one of the main conduits for lahars from Mount Ruapehu, the highest active andesitic stratovolcano in the Central North Island of New Zealand. Both debris flows and hyperconcentrated flows have engulfed surfaces up to 160 km distance from the Volcano. Eight episodes of laharic activity are recognized by the distinctive lithology and similar age of their deposits. The newly defined upper Pleistocene Whangaehu Formation provides evidence for the earliest lahar event in the Valley, c. 180,000- 140,000 years ago. There is only meagre evidence for laharic activity following this event until the Ohakean and Holocene, although two new informally named deposits - the Mangatipona pumice sand (c. 37,000 years B.P.) and Apitian lahars (c. 32,000-25,500 years B.P) - are recognized, of minor extent. The formerly defined late Quaternary Te Heuheu (c. 25,500- 14,700 years B.P.), Tangatu (c. 14,700-5,370 years B.P.), Manutahi (c. 5 ,370-3,4600 years B.P.), Mangaio (c. 4,600 years B.P.) and Onetapu (< c. 1,850 years B.P.) Formations are here described and interpreted. Triggering mechanisms for lahar deposits are distinguished based on lithological criteria. (a) Bouldery deposits in the Whangaehu Formation are interpreted to have been emplaced by a single highly competent debris flow triggered by a southerly-directed flank collapse at Mount Ruapehu. This debris flow was competent enough to transport boulders up to 2 m in diameter over 140 km from the Volcano. Bouldery deposits are also recognized in the Onetapu Formation, but are restricted to higher gradient surfaces on the Mount Ruapehu ring plain. The Onetapu Formation deposits are interpreted to have been emplaced by lahars resulting from catastrophic drainage of Crater Lake, which occupies the active crater on Mount Ruapehu. (b) Pebbly and sandy deposits are interpreted to have been emplaced by low competence debris flows and hyperconcentrated flows. These lahar deposits are recognized in all formations described. The lithology in these deposits is commonly pumice and they are interpreted to have been triggered by eruptions and/or high rainfall events at the Volcano. Formations, and individual members within Formations, were dated by radiocarbon dating of organic material found below, within or above lahar deposits, or by coverbed stratigraphy. Both rhyolitic and andesitic tephras provided recognizable time planes in the late Quaternary coverbeds overlying lahar deposits. In this study quantitative analysis of quartz abundance, which is shown to vary between loesses and palaeosols, is used as an indirect means of establishing a surrogate for past climate changes which have been correlated to the deep sea oxygen isotope curve. A minimum age for the newly defined Whangaehu Formation is established by this method. The accumulation rate for lahars in the Whangaehu River has accelerated from 1 km3 every c. 23,000 years in the past c. 160,000 years to 1 km3 in 589 years in the past c. 2,000 years. This acceleration probably results from the increased frequency of lahars in the River following the development of Crater Lake c. 2,000 years B.P. According to this pattern an estimated 0.17 km3 volume of lahars could be anticipated over the next 100 years. If the 2,000 year accumulation rate were to be met over the next 100 years there would be 170 lahars of l0[superscript]6 m3 in this time interval , or 17 lahars of 10[superscript]7 m3 (or 1.7 lahars of 10[superscript]8 m3). The largest reported volume for an historic lahar is 10[superscript]6 m3 and these have occurred on average once every 30 years. The accumulation rate for historic lahars is 0.0054 km3 in 100 years. Therefore, although the accumulation rate appears to have slowed down, further large lahars with magnitudes 10 or 100 times greater than those witnessed could be expected.

Corrida de detritos é um tipo de movimento que se caracteriza por uma massa fluída bastante densa, constituída por lama, água, rochas e outros detritos, capaz de atingir elevadas velocidades e possuir elevado potencial de destruição. Essas características colocam esse tipo de movimento entre os mais catastróficos desastres naturais, com grande potencial de destruição, principalmente quando ocorre em áreas urbanizadas, onde os prejuízos e perdas podem ser enormes. Como apoio para definição de medidas de prevenção ou mitigação desses desastres, as ferramentas computacionais para modelagem desses movimentos têm se mostrado de grande utilidade, sendo que para isso atualmente existem diferentes abordagens. Nesse sentido, o atual trabalho se baseia na aplicação do software RAMMS em um estudo de caso a fim de verificar a aplicabilidade dessa ferramenta no estudo de casos típicos de corridas de massa em condições brasileiras. Este software, desenvolvido pelo órgão suíço WSL, se baseia no modelo de atrito de Voellmy-Salm, que divide a resistência ao cisalhamento em duas parcelas: atrito seco e atrito turbulento, sendo que para cada uma destas parcelas existe um coeficiente característico, sendo, respectivamente, μ e ξ. Neste trabalho é feita a análise de movimentos de massa que ocorreram no Rio de Janeiro no ano de 1996, nos canais dos rios Quitite e Papagaio, em que foi mobilizado cerca de 130.000m³ de material por cerca 1,5 km. Neste trabalho é feita uma retroanálise desses movimentos através do software RAMMS, de modo a se obter a calibração dos parâmetros de atrito do modelo Voellmy-Salm. Para isso foram realizadas diversas simulações dos movimentos de massa, fazendo-se a comparação dos resultados com os dados dos movimentos reais. As análises realizadas possibilitaram a calibração dos parâmetros de atrito do modelo Voellmy-Salm de modo a reproduzir de maneira satisfatória os movimentos ocorridos. Para o coeficiente de atrito seco (μ), os valores obtidos ficaram entre 0,075 para o material mais fino e 0,25 para o material mais grosseiro. Para o coeficiente de atrito turbulento (ξ) o valor obtido também foi variável de acordo com o trecho, entre 150 e 400 m/s², aproximadamente. Também foi observado que ambos os parâmetros apresentam variação ao longo do trecho da corrida. Esses valores podem vir a servir de base para estudos de novos movimentos em condições similares, através do software RAMMS, auxiliando assim em programas para prevenção ou mitigação das consequências relacionadas às corridas de detritos. / Debris flows is a mass movement characterized as a dense fluid, consisting of mud, water, rocks and other debris, which is able to reach high speeds and to have a high destructive potential. These characteristics classify this type of mass movement among the most catastrophic natural disasters, with great potential for destruction especially when it occurs in urban areas, where losses can be enormous. Computational tools to model these movements have proved to be very useful as support for studies of preventive or mitigation measures for such disasters and there are a number of different approaches currently. The current work is based on the application of RAMMS software in a case study to verify the applicability of this tool on the study of cases under Brazilian conditions. The software was developed by the Swiss agency WSL and is based on the Voellmy-Salm friction model, which divides the shear resistance into two portions: dry friction and turbulent friction, and for each of these portions assumes a characteristic coefficient, μ and ξ, respectively. In this work the analysis of the debris flows that occurred in the Quitite and Papagaio streams, Rio de Janeiro, 1996, which mobilized about 130.000m³ of material for about 1.5 km. Back analysis of these movements were performed using the software RAMMS to obtain calibration parameters for the friction model of Voellmy-Salm. For this purpose, several simulations of mass movements were performed allowing the comparison of the results with data from real movements. These analyzes had allowed the parameters calibration of the Voellmy-Salm friction model which reproduced satisfactorily the movements. For the coefficient of dry friction (μ), the values obtained were between 0.075, for fine material, and 0.25, for coarse material. For the turbulent friction coefficient (ξ) the values were also variable between 150 and 400 m/s, approximately, according to the geometric segment studied. It was also observed that both parameters changed along the stretch. These values may be used as a base for studies of new movements in similar conditions using RAMMS software and can help in prevention or mitigation of debris flows.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-11T19:32:20Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2006-11-10Bitstream added on 2014-06-13T18:43:37Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 lopes_ess_dr_rcla.pdf: 8893056 bytes, checksum: d240d8729b6b1662f31ac0ef417e5386 (MD5) / Um modelo dinamico com caracteristicas friccionais, que utiliza como parametros basicos o angulo de atrito interno do material ( int Ó ) e basal ( bed Ó ) com a superficie onde ocorre o movimento, foi calibrado e aplicado com objetivo de simular as mesmas condicoes em que ocorreram corridas de massa nos anos de 1985, 1994 e 1999, em tres bacias da Serra do Mar, na regiao de Cubatao (SP-Brasil), na escala 1:10.000. Um modelo estatico de estabilidade por talude infinito, definido atraves do indice de estabilidade (SI), foi aplicado para subsidiar o estudo de areas com potencial aos processos de escorregamentos translacionais rasos, que podem evoluir para corridas de massa. Um inventario de cicatrizes tambem foi elaborado a partir da interpretacao de produtos de sensoriamento remoto, utilizado para validar o modelo estatico, assim como para definir pilhas de materiais deflagradas no modelo dinamico. Os resultados com o modelo estatico mostraram-se mais adequados quando se utilizaram as unidades litologicas para variacao dos parametros geotecnicos. Mais de 85% das cicatrizes ficaram dentro dos limites inferior de estabilidade e superior de instabilidade. As simulacoes com o modelo dinamico permitiram criar diferentes cenarios, com caracteristicas como trajetoria e alcance do material mobilizado, semelhantes aos eventos ocorridos no passado. Para tal modelo, diferentes configuracoes de pilhas de materiais e variacoes do angulo de atrito basal, em funcao do mapa de materiais, permitiram simulacoes mais realistas. / A dynamic model with frictional characteristics that uses as basic parameters internal friction angle of the material ( int Ó ) and bed friction angle ( bed Ó ) with the surface where movement occurs was calibrated and applied to simulate the same conditions under which debris flows occurred in the years 1985, 1994 and 1999, in three watersheds of the Serra do Mar, in the region of Cubatao (Sao Paulo, Brasil), on a scale of 1:10.000. A static model of infinite slope stability, defined using the stability index (SI), was applied to inform the study of areas that have potential for processes of shallow translational landsliding that could evolve into debris flows. Landslide inventory data was also elaborated based on the interpretation of remote sensing products, used to validate the static model as well as to define deflagrated pile material in the dynamic model. The results with the static model proved to be more satisfactory when the lithological boundaries were used for variation of the geotechnical parameters. More than 85% of the scarps were within the lower threshold stability and upper threshold instability. The simulations with the dynamic model allowed the creation of different scenarios with characteristics, such as trajectory and range of the mobilized material, similar to the events that occurred in the past. For this model, different configurations of pile material and variations in the bed friction angle, as a function of the materials map, made it possible to carry out more realistic simulations.

Corrida de detritos é um tipo de movimento que se caracteriza por uma massa fluída bastante densa, constituída por lama, água, rochas e outros detritos, capaz de atingir elevadas velocidades e possuir elevado potencial de destruição. Essas características colocam esse tipo de movimento entre os mais catastróficos desastres naturais, com grande potencial de destruição, principalmente quando ocorre em áreas urbanizadas, onde os prejuízos e perdas podem ser enormes. Como apoio para definição de medidas de prevenção ou mitigação desses desastres, as ferramentas computacionais para modelagem desses movimentos têm se mostrado de grande utilidade, sendo que para isso atualmente existem diferentes abordagens. Nesse sentido, o atual trabalho se baseia na aplicação do software RAMMS em um estudo de caso a fim de verificar a aplicabilidade dessa ferramenta no estudo de casos típicos de corridas de massa em condições brasileiras. Este software, desenvolvido pelo órgão suíço WSL, se baseia no modelo de atrito de Voellmy-Salm, que divide a resistência ao cisalhamento em duas parcelas: atrito seco e atrito turbulento, sendo que para cada uma destas parcelas existe um coeficiente característico, sendo, respectivamente, μ e ξ. Neste trabalho é feita a análise de movimentos de massa que ocorreram no Rio de Janeiro no ano de 1996, nos canais dos rios Quitite e Papagaio, em que foi mobilizado cerca de 130.000m³ de material por cerca 1,5 km. Neste trabalho é feita uma retroanálise desses movimentos através do software RAMMS, de modo a se obter a calibração dos parâmetros de atrito do modelo Voellmy-Salm. Para isso foram realizadas diversas simulações dos movimentos de massa, fazendo-se a comparação dos resultados com os dados dos movimentos reais. As análises realizadas possibilitaram a calibração dos parâmetros de atrito do modelo Voellmy-Salm de modo a reproduzir de maneira satisfatória os movimentos ocorridos. Para o coeficiente de atrito seco (μ), os valores obtidos ficaram entre 0,075 para o material mais fino e 0,25 para o material mais grosseiro. Para o coeficiente de atrito turbulento (ξ) o valor obtido também foi variável de acordo com o trecho, entre 150 e 400 m/s², aproximadamente. Também foi observado que ambos os parâmetros apresentam variação ao longo do trecho da corrida. Esses valores podem vir a servir de base para estudos de novos movimentos em condições similares, através do software RAMMS, auxiliando assim em programas para prevenção ou mitigação das consequências relacionadas às corridas de detritos. / Debris flows is a mass movement characterized as a dense fluid, consisting of mud, water, rocks and other debris, which is able to reach high speeds and to have a high destructive potential. These characteristics classify this type of mass movement among the most catastrophic natural disasters, with great potential for destruction especially when it occurs in urban areas, where losses can be enormous. Computational tools to model these movements have proved to be very useful as support for studies of preventive or mitigation measures for such disasters and there are a number of different approaches currently. The current work is based on the application of RAMMS software in a case study to verify the applicability of this tool on the study of cases under Brazilian conditions. The software was developed by the Swiss agency WSL and is based on the Voellmy-Salm friction model, which divides the shear resistance into two portions: dry friction and turbulent friction, and for each of these portions assumes a characteristic coefficient, μ and ξ, respectively. In this work the analysis of the debris flows that occurred in the Quitite and Papagaio streams, Rio de Janeiro, 1996, which mobilized about 130.000m³ of material for about 1.5 km. Back analysis of these movements were performed using the software RAMMS to obtain calibration parameters for the friction model of Voellmy-Salm. For this purpose, several simulations of mass movements were performed allowing the comparison of the results with data from real movements. These analyzes had allowed the parameters calibration of the Voellmy-Salm friction model which reproduced satisfactorily the movements. For the coefficient of dry friction (μ), the values obtained were between 0.075, for fine material, and 0.25, for coarse material. For the turbulent friction coefficient (ξ) the values were also variable between 150 and 400 m/s, approximately, according to the geometric segment studied. It was also observed that both parameters changed along the stretch. These values may be used as a base for studies of new movements in similar conditions using RAMMS software and can help in prevention or mitigation of debris flows.

Corrida de detritos é um tipo de movimento que se caracteriza por uma massa fluída bastante densa, constituída por lama, água, rochas e outros detritos, capaz de atingir elevadas velocidades e possuir elevado potencial de destruição. Essas características colocam esse tipo de movimento entre os mais catastróficos desastres naturais, com grande potencial de destruição, principalmente quando ocorre em áreas urbanizadas, onde os prejuízos e perdas podem ser enormes. Como apoio para definição de medidas de prevenção ou mitigação desses desastres, as ferramentas computacionais para modelagem desses movimentos têm se mostrado de grande utilidade, sendo que para isso atualmente existem diferentes abordagens. Nesse sentido, o atual trabalho se baseia na aplicação do software RAMMS em um estudo de caso a fim de verificar a aplicabilidade dessa ferramenta no estudo de casos típicos de corridas de massa em condições brasileiras. Este software, desenvolvido pelo órgão suíço WSL, se baseia no modelo de atrito de Voellmy-Salm, que divide a resistência ao cisalhamento em duas parcelas: atrito seco e atrito turbulento, sendo que para cada uma destas parcelas existe um coeficiente característico, sendo, respectivamente, μ e ξ. Neste trabalho é feita a análise de movimentos de massa que ocorreram no Rio de Janeiro no ano de 1996, nos canais dos rios Quitite e Papagaio, em que foi mobilizado cerca de 130.000m³ de material por cerca 1,5 km. Neste trabalho é feita uma retroanálise desses movimentos através do software RAMMS, de modo a se obter a calibração dos parâmetros de atrito do modelo Voellmy-Salm. Para isso foram realizadas diversas simulações dos movimentos de massa, fazendo-se a comparação dos resultados com os dados dos movimentos reais. As análises realizadas possibilitaram a calibração dos parâmetros de atrito do modelo Voellmy-Salm de modo a reproduzir de maneira satisfatória os movimentos ocorridos. Para o coeficiente de atrito seco (μ), os valores obtidos ficaram entre 0,075 para o material mais fino e 0,25 para o material mais grosseiro. Para o coeficiente de atrito turbulento (ξ) o valor obtido também foi variável de acordo com o trecho, entre 150 e 400 m/s², aproximadamente. Também foi observado que ambos os parâmetros apresentam variação ao longo do trecho da corrida. Esses valores podem vir a servir de base para estudos de novos movimentos em condições similares, através do software RAMMS, auxiliando assim em programas para prevenção ou mitigação das consequências relacionadas às corridas de detritos. / Debris flows is a mass movement characterized as a dense fluid, consisting of mud, water, rocks and other debris, which is able to reach high speeds and to have a high destructive potential. These characteristics classify this type of mass movement among the most catastrophic natural disasters, with great potential for destruction especially when it occurs in urban areas, where losses can be enormous. Computational tools to model these movements have proved to be very useful as support for studies of preventive or mitigation measures for such disasters and there are a number of different approaches currently. The current work is based on the application of RAMMS software in a case study to verify the applicability of this tool on the study of cases under Brazilian conditions. The software was developed by the Swiss agency WSL and is based on the Voellmy-Salm friction model, which divides the shear resistance into two portions: dry friction and turbulent friction, and for each of these portions assumes a characteristic coefficient, μ and ξ, respectively. In this work the analysis of the debris flows that occurred in the Quitite and Papagaio streams, Rio de Janeiro, 1996, which mobilized about 130.000m³ of material for about 1.5 km. Back analysis of these movements were performed using the software RAMMS to obtain calibration parameters for the friction model of Voellmy-Salm. For this purpose, several simulations of mass movements were performed allowing the comparison of the results with data from real movements. These analyzes had allowed the parameters calibration of the Voellmy-Salm friction model which reproduced satisfactorily the movements. For the coefficient of dry friction (μ), the values obtained were between 0.075, for fine material, and 0.25, for coarse material. For the turbulent friction coefficient (ξ) the values were also variable between 150 and 400 m/s, approximately, according to the geometric segment studied. It was also observed that both parameters changed along the stretch. These values may be used as a base for studies of new movements in similar conditions using RAMMS software and can help in prevention or mitigation of debris flows.

No description available.

Climate change is leading to in an increase in frequency and severity of wildfires, which in turn can result in the formation of runoff-initiated post-wildfire debris flows. This type of debris flows is, like most debris flows, triggered by heavy precipitation events. Debris flows have the potential to cause much damage, and therefore it is important to analyse when and where the risk of these flows exists. This study aims to identify shared characteristics of basins that experienced post-wildfire debris flows in order to improve future risk analyses regarding such flows. These characteristics were studied through the analysis of 42 basins in 10 burned areas across western North America, which experienced a total of 67 post-wildfire debris flows between 2000 and 2018. Literature research and existing databases revealed the bedrock, soil texture and the timing of the flows compared to the wildfires. Spatial analysis using ArcMap allowed for the analysis of the burn severity of the basins, the hypsometry of the basins, and the mean slope of the basins. Analysis of these characteristics revealed the importance of the hypsometric integral, the soil texture, and the mean slope angle of the basins. In general, the hypsometric integral tends to fall between 0.50 and 0.60 and only soils with a coarse texture were identified for the basins. The mean slope angle of the basins is commonly between 25-30o, with a wider range of slopes being able to generate debris flows shortly after the fire. If multiple basins in a small area are burned, those with steeper slope angles have a higher potential to generate debris flows, while basins with steeper slopes do not have a higher risk on large regional scales. In order to generate post-wildfire debris flows the basin also needs to be burned at a large extent at low to medium severity, resulting in an extensive and strong water-repellent layer required to generate the runoff that is needed to generate a debris flow. Seasonal wetting during winters and drying of the soil during summers can reduce or enhance runoff respectively as well. As a result, post-wildfire debris flows occur mostly during the late summer months shortly after a wildfire when precipitation is increasing through summer storms, or a year later when the soil is dried and primed during the summer followed by such a summer storm. Fires during winter and thus outside the traditional wildfire season can lead to post-wildfire debris flows during winter as well due to the strength of the fresh water-repellent layer. Climate change which will lead to more fires during late autumn and winter months can thereby result in post-wildfire debris flows during winter, rather than only during the summer months following wildfires in the traditional fire season. / Jordskred uppstår när en sammanhängande jordmassa kommer i snabb rörelse. Det är en typ av naturolyckor som kan skada både infrastruktur och människor. Sannolikheten att ett jordskred inträffar ökar efter skogsbränder. Samtidigt kan klimatförändringar leda till en ökning av skogsbränder vilket i sin tur kan leda till en ökad risk för jordskred i framtiden. Syftet med det här projektet är att bidra till bedömningen av risken av jordskred till följd av skogsbänder i västra Nordamerika och att identifiera andra områden som också har en stor risk att drabbs av skred efter skogsbränder genom att identifiera riskfaktorer. Under projektets gång skapades en databas med områden där jordskred inträffade efter skogsbränder i västra Nordamerika. Den vetenskapliga litteraturen visade några egenskaper av skred och områdena, t.ex. när branden och skredet hände, vilken berggrund finns i området och texturen av jordarten i området. Dessutom användandes GIS (Geographical Information System) med satellitbilder och DEM (Digital Elevation models), som visade information om brandskador samt de geomorfologiska karaktärerna av områden. Resultaten visade att formationen av jordskred kräver omfattande låga till måttliga brandskador som resulterar i ett starkt vattenavvisande jordlager. Detta jordlager minskar infiltrationskapaciteten av jorden och resulterar i mer ytavrinning vilket orsakar skred till följd av brand. Även en grov textur av jordlagret är viktig eftersom den också bidrar till ett starkt vattenavvisande jordlager. Dessutom kan askpartiklar bli fångade in i stora porer i jord med en grov textur vilket minskar infiltrationskapaciteten och ökar ytavrinningen. Det finns alltså två krav för att ett jordskred ska inträffa efter en skogsbrand: i) omfattande låga-måttliga brandskador, och ii) en grov textur av jorden. Vidare finns det några ytterligare egenskaper som ökar risken för skred efter skogsbränder om de två kraven är uppfyllda. Den hypsometriska integralen (ett sätt att uttrycka hypsometrin av en dal) ligger oftast mellan 0.50-0.60 vilket är normal för en geomorfologiskt sett mogna område. Dessutom hade de flesta områdena i projektet en medellutning mellan 25o och 30o. Dock fanns det även tillfällen där värdena låg utanför dessa intervaller. Därför kan dessa värden i sig inte användas som riskfaktorer, utan borde de även kombineras med de övriga egenskaperna som beskrivs i den här undersökningen. Det är också relevant att veta när jordskred inträffar till följd av skogsbränder. Resultaten visade att skred kan hända strax efter skogsbränder i slutet av sommaren när det finns kraftigt regn. Det är då som det vattenavvisande jordlagret är som starkast. Det vattenavvisande lagret minskar i styrkan under året, men det är också möjligt att det inträffar ett jordskred under sommaren året efter en skogsbrand. Då är jorden torr i slutet av sommaren när kraftigt regn inträffar efter torra månader. Torr jorden bidrar även till en minskad infiltrationskapacitet. Regn i vinter gör jorden blöt vilket ökar infiltrationskapaciteten av jorden. Dessutom sker det även skogsbränder utanför den traditionella skogsbrandsäsongen nuförtiden, t.ex. tidigt i vintern. I så fall kan jordskred också inträffa under samma vinter strax efter skogsbranden, därför att det vattenavvisande jordlagret som skapas i branden fortfarande är starkt då. Som nämnts tidigare finns det en riskprofil som kan användas för att identifiera områden som har en hög risk för jordskred efter skogsbränder, men möjligheten att ett jordskred inträffar under vintern istället för (slutet av) sommaren bör även iakttas. Risken växer nämligen i samband med klimatförändringar som leder till mer skogsbränder; inte bara under sommaren, utan även under vintern.

Esta pesquisa teve como hipótese que as corridas de detritos são os principais processos responsáveis pela evolução do relevo da Serra do Mar (SP), esperando-se, portanto, uma relação direta entre as taxas de denudação a longo-termo mais elevadas e a maior magnitude das corridas de detritos, sendo esta fortemente controlada pela morfometria das bacias de drenagem. Acredita-se que as características morfométricas das bacias, por serem determinantes na dinâmica hidrológica das bacias de drenagem, são fundamentais para a compreensão da geração e da propagação de corridas de detritos em ambiente tropical úmido. Desta forma, o objetivo principal desta pesquisa foi verificar as relações existentes entre a magnitude das corridas de detritos, a morfometria das bacias e as taxas de denudação a longo-termo em relevo escarpado de margem passiva em ambiente tropical úmido, como a Serra do Mar. Para tanto, foram definidos os seguintes objetivos específicos: (i) avaliar o potencial de geração de corridas de detritos das bacias de drenagem; (ii) avaliar a relação entre a morfometria das bacias e a magnitude das corridas de detritos; (iii) discutir a evolução a longo-termo do relevo a partir das taxas de denudação em escala de bacia de drenagem e; (iv) avaliar a importância das corridas de detritos como os principais processos exógenos para a evolução do relevo em margens passivas de ambiente tropical úmido. Os procedimentos adotados para desenvolvimento da pesquisa foram (i) seleção das bacias de drenagens; (ii) amostragem de sedimento aluvial; (iii) mapeamento dos depósitos de corridas de detritos; (iv) aplicação dos índices morfométricos; (v) aplicação dos Índices Adimensionais para determinação do potencial de geração de corridas de detritos; (vi) preparação das amostras e análise da concentração de 10Be e; (vii) análise integrada dos resultados obtidos. As bacias possuem características morfométricas que lhes confere alta capacidade erosiva, conforme o elevado Índice de Rugosidade e Relação de Relevo. A partir da aplicação dos índices Adimensionais, as bacias classificadas com maior potencial de geração de corridas foram a Rio Claro 1 e a Massaguaçu. A identificação dos depósitos de corridas em superfície e a dimensão dos blocos subsidiaram a classificação de cinco bacias com maior magnitude e cinco com menor magnitude. As taxas de denudação médias a longo-termo variaram entre 10,9 m/My e 35,2 m/My, com média de 25 m/My. Observou-se que as variações litológicas e a rede de lineamentos estruturais pôde explicar melhor a distribuição das taxas, em detrimento das características morfométricas das bacias de drenagem. Acredita-se que as taxas de denudação elevadas para algumas bacias com menor magnitude indicaram que estes processos seriam os processos responsáveis pelo maior trabalho geomorfológico e, consequentemente, pela evolução a longo-termo da Serra do Mar (SP). / This research has the hypothesis that debris flows are the major processes related to landforms evolution of the Serra do Mar (SP), and we expected therefore a direct relationship between long-term denudation rates and higher magnitude debris flows events, which is strongly controlled by drainage basin morphometry. We believe that morphometric characteristics, fundamental to drainage basins hydrological dynamics, are determinant to debris flows initiation and propagation in humid tropical environments. Thus this research aims to verify the relationships between debris flows magnitude, basin morphometry and long-term denudation rates in escarped reliefs such as Serra do Mar. Therefore, specific goals are: (i) evaluate the potential to debris flows generation; (ii) evaluate the relationship between drainage basin morphometry and debris flows magnitude; (iii) discuss long-term landforms evolution from denudation rates at drainage basin scale and; (iv) evaluate the importance of debris flows like the main exogenous processes to landforms evolution in passive margins in humid tropical environment. The procedures adopted to the research development were: (i) selection of drainage basins; (Ii) alluvial sediment sampling; (Iii) mapping debris flows deposits; (Iv) application of morphometric parameters; (V) application of Dimensionless Indices to measure the potential to debris flow generation; (Vi) sample preparation and analysis of 10Be concentration; (Vii) integrated analysis of the results. The basins have morphometric characteristics which gives them high erosive power, as the high Ruggedness Index and Relief Ratio. From the Dimensionless Indices application, the basins classified with higher potential to debris flows generation were Rio Claro 1 and Massaguaçu. The identification of superficial debris flows deposits and boulders size subsidized the classification of five basins with higher magnitude and five with lower magnitude. Long-term denudation rates ranged between 10.9 m/My and 35.2 m/My, averaging 25 m/My. We observed that lithological variations, fractures and folds could explain better rates distribution, instead of morphometrics characteristics of drainage basins. We believe that high long-term denudation rates for some basins with lower magnitude indicates that such processes would be the main processes for the geomorphological work and consequently for the long-term evolution of the Serra do Mar (SP).