Thesis (Ph.D.)--Miami University, Dept. of Sociology and Gerontology, 2009. / Title from second page of PDF document. Includes bibliographical references (p. 143-156).

La transition démographique bouleverse les équilibres de population du monde. Si la croissance des populations a été soulignée par les démographes durant la seconde moitié du XXe siècle, le vieillissement est également une conséquence de ce changement de régime démographique. Néanmoins, les études démographiques et géoprospectives ne sont pas si nombreuses sur le sujet. Il semble pertinent de dépasser les cadres nationaux pour adopter une échelle infranationale pour comprendre les évolutions observées. Nous étudions ici le futur du vieillissement démographique des sociétés méditerranéennes dans sa dimension dynamique. La Méditerranée constitue un laboratoire intéressant pour l'étude du vieillissement : on y trouve une grande pluralité de situations démographiques. Les enjeux de cette étude dépassent son cadre thématique : pour la mener à bien, plusieurs défis méthodologiques ont dû être relevés. Des données démographiques aux échelles infranationales, issues de sources nombreuses et disparates, ont été collectées et harmonisées pour l'ensemble de l'espace méditerranéen. Elles ont servi à établir des scénarios prospectifs et des projections pour les 50 années à venir. Il a fallu adapter des méthodes issues d'autres disciplines pour mesurer le processus de convergence, et même en proposer de nouvelles. La thèse met en avant la diversité des convergences à l’œuvre dans le vieillissement des populations méditerranéennes. Les différents scénarios analysés décrivent tous une convergence globale des vieillissements mais rappellent aussi que l’hétérogénéité observée dans la répartition spatiale du phénomène devrait perdurer encore longtemps et pourrait se renforcer localement. / The demographic transition upsets population balances worldwide. If population growth has been studied by demographers throughout the second half of the 20th century, ageing is an equally significant consequence of this demographic change. Nevertheless, studies demographic and geoprospective are not so many. In order to understand the observed changes, it seems appropriate to look beyond national borders for choose the level of sub-national territories. We study the future of Mediterranean societies' ageing in its dynamic dimension. The Mediterranean is an interesting laboratory because we found a great plurality of situations. To reach our goal, several challenges had to be overcome regarding the collection of data, their harmonization, their projection and analysis. For the whole Mediterranean area, we have collected and harmonized geo-demographic data to sub-national scales from many disparate sources. They were then used to establish future scenarios and projections for the next 50 years. Finally, we had to adapt methods from other disciplines (especially econometrics) to establish convergence of measures. We even propose news methods to answer our questions. The Ph.D. highlights the diversity of convergence proccess involved in the ageing populations of the Mediterranean. Territorial convergence and spatial convergence are taking part in the approximation of the regions' characteristics in terms of ageing. All the different scenarios analyzed describe future that highlight the global convergence of ageing but also remind that the observed heterogeneity in the spatial distribution of the phenomenon should last a long time and could strengthen locally.

Cette recherche se propose d’étudier l’impact du vieillissement futur de la population algérienne sur l’équilibre financier du système des retraites et les dépenses de santé. Après une période de croissance rapide de la population, l’Algérie est entrée dans une phase de vieillissement démographique. Cette dernière a marqué la pyramide des âges pour la premièrefois en 1998, avec une modification importante de la structure par âge confirmée par le dernier recensement de 2008. En Algérie, comme l’a été la baisse de la fécondité, le vieillissement de la population, dans les deux à trois décennies à venir, devrait suivre un rythme rapide, voire extrêmement rapide, comparé à celui observé dans les pays développés. Ce phénomène aura des conséquences dans beaucoup de domaines ; notamment au niveau du financement des retraites, et de la maîtrise des dépenses de santé. Dans les deux à trois décennies à venir les dépenses de retraites et de santé devraient connaître une croissance importante sous l’effet du vieillissement. Il incombe aux pouvoirs publics de s’y préparer et de s’y adapter afin de relever le défi qu’imposera le vieillissement futur de la population algérienne afin de garantir l’équilibre financier et la pérennité des deux systèmes, à savoir celui des retraites et de la santé. / The research aims to study the impact of future aging of the Algerian population on the financial balance of the pension system and health expenditure. After a period of rapid demographic growth, Algeria entered a phase of population aging. This was noticed on the age-sex pyramid for the first time in 1998, with a significant change in the age structure. Thischange was confirmed by the last census in 2008. In Algeria, as for fertility, aging is likely to follow a rapid or extremely rapid pace, within two to three decades, compared with observed experiences in developed countries. This will imply consequences in many areas including in pensions’ funding and health expenditure control. Within two to three decades, the pension and health spending will grow significantly as a result of aging. The government has to face the challenge of the future burden of aging of the Algerian population and to ensure the financial stability and sustainability of both systems, namely pensions and health.

The demographic transition led to an added productivity commonly referred to as the demographic divided, which resulted in high rates of economic growth in most of the world. The general consensus is that the increased pace of economic growth was attained largely thanks to changes in population age structure. However, the literature contains evidence that the population structure does not have a significant impact on economic growth and that improvements in education attainment have in fact been responsible for the high rates of economic growth. These claims are in contradiction with most of the literature and can have important implications for future research and policy making. Since these claims have not been, to the best of our knowledge, verified, this thesis aims to replicate the original research using newer and more suitable data for a higher number of countries. In addition to the original research, analysis is also performed on various subsamples based on governance and cultural indicators. The level and the change in education attainment did not appear statistically significant in most of the regressions, so the claims could not be proved or disproved. However, important insights about the role of not only population structure and labor force participation in explaining economic growth were...

Analyzes in an open and exploratory as seniors who reside in long-stay institutions in the municipalities of Arapiraca-AL and Caruaru-PE represent old age and life institutionalized. Therefore, traces a characterization of the process of demographic transition and seeks to place the impact of this process on the expansion of demand for formal long-term care in Brazil and especially in cities where the institutions surveyed included. Observes how the process of demographic transition is accompanied by a decrease in the availability of family caregivers and how the expansion of demand for long-term care requires a redefinition of the distribution of roles among family, society and state in the provision of care. Discusses the approach of Norbert Elias about the process of concealment of death and dying that would have developed in northern European societies in the course of the civilizing process and seeks to show how dependent old age still produce feelings of shame and embarrassment that hinder identification with the old and the dying. Finally, assess how the subjects represent the old age and the life institutionalized and inquire about the possibility of reconciling the representations produced in the context of characterization of the dying of loneliness that is presented in the Elia’s work / FAPEAL - Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Alagoas / Esse estudo analisa de forma aberta e exploratória como idosos que residem em instituições de longa permanência nos municípios de Arapiraca-Al e Caruaru-PE representam a velhice e a vida institucionalizada. Para tanto, traça uma caracterização do processo de transição demográfica e procura situar os impactos desse processo na ampliação da demanda por cuidados formais de longa duração no Brasil e em especial nas cidades onde figuram as instituições pesquisadas. Observa como o processo de transição demográfica é acompanhado de uma diminuição da disponibilidade de cuidadores familiares e como a ampliação da demanda por cuidados de longa duração exige uma redefinição da distribuição de papéis entre família, sociedade, mercado e Estado na oferta desses cuidados. Discorre sobre a abordagem eliasiana acerca do processo de ocultação da morte e dos moribundos que teria se desenvolvido nas sociedades norte europeias no curso do processo civilizador e procura indicar como a velhice dependente ainda produziria sentimentos de vergonha e embaraço que dificultariam a identificação com os velhos e os moribundos. Por fim, avalia como os sujeitos da pesquisa representaram a velhice e a vida institucionalizada e inquire sobre a possibilidade de compatibilizar as representações produzidas no quadro de caracterização da solidão dos moribundos que é apresentado na obra eliasiana.

Submitted by Renata Lopes (renatasil82@gmail.com) on 2017-05-25T19:30:14Z No. of bitstreams: 1 marciliozanellipereira.pdf: 2774067 bytes, checksum: fb7bfb9e35ac73406eceef3f7a0801e3 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Adriana Oliveira (adriana.oliveira@ufjf.edu.br) on 2017-05-26T13:09:29Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 marciliozanellipereira.pdf: 2774067 bytes, checksum: fb7bfb9e35ac73406eceef3f7a0801e3 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-05-26T13:09:29Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 marciliozanellipereira.pdf: 2774067 bytes, checksum: fb7bfb9e35ac73406eceef3f7a0801e3 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-02-23 / Tem-se observado na economia mundial mudanças demográficas que estão afetando direta e∕ou indiretamente toda a economia. No Brasil, conforme dados da ONU (2015), a população com mais de 65 anos representa, em 2015, 7,8% da população total e a previsão é que em 2030 este valor chegue a 13,5%. Além desse fato, outra questão pertinente refere-se ao aumento de trabalhadores estrangeiros no Brasil. Conforme dados da Coordenação Geral de Imigração (2015) houve um crescimento de 280% das autorizações de trabalho dadas aos estrangeiros na década de 2010. Com esse crescimento de imigrantes no país, o acréscimo relativo da população idosa e queda da população jovem, a hipótese levantada é a de que ocorram efeitos no mercado de trabalho. Para captar essas mudanças na economia, utilizou de um modelo de equilíbrio geral computável, o qual pôde captar os impactos setoriais que as alterações demográficas e inserção de estrangeiros causaram no mercado de trabalho brasileiro. Para isso, o primeiro passo consistiu em subdividir o fator trabalho em 3 níveis de qualificação (baixa, média e alta) e quatro faixas etárias (jovem, adulto, maduro e idoso) com o intuito de calcular a elasticidade de substituição dos trabalhadores brasileiros em 62 setores utilizando a metodologia econométrica proposta por Das (2003). Como primeiro resultado pôde perceber que os trabalhadores apresentam graus diferentes de substituição, para os diferentes setores, escolaridade e faixa etária. De uma forma geral, observou-se que os trabalhadores jovens possuem a menor elasticidade de substituição, enquanto os maduros obtiveram as maiores elasticidades. Esses resultados mostram a maior vulnerabilidade dos trabalhadores da faixa etária maduro de serem substituídos por outras faixas etárias. Além disso, o resultado ressalta que há uma substitubilidade imperfeita entre os trabalhadores e que a transição demográfica tende a aprofundar esse efeito com o decorrer dos anos. Após o modelo MID-BR (Mercado de Trabalho Imigração-Demografia-Brasil) estar calibrado, foi possível realizar simulações com o intuito de captar os efeitos que a transição demográfica e a inserção de imigrantes provocam na economia nacional. Como principais resultados das simulações, foi observado que o incremento de trabalhadores brasileiros com maior escolaridade têm maior capacidade de afetar positivamente o produto nacional e que o setor de Fabricação de Automóveis, caminhões etc é o mais dinâmico da economia. A entrada de estrangeiros no país impacta positivamente o PIB real brasileiro, porém os nativos de maior escolaridade apresentaram quedas salariais. Usando dados das previsões da população economicamente ativa da ILO Labour Statistics databases (LABORSTA, 2011), foi feita uma simulação para captar o efeito da transição demográfica da década de 2010. Foi observado efeito negativo no PIB real devido à nova estrutura etária dos trabalhadores e que as faixas etárias jovens e adultos obtiveram ganhos salariais, enquanto os maduros e idosos registraram quedas. / Demographic changes are affecting direct and/or indirectly the world economy. In Brazil, according to the United Nations (2015) data, the population over 65 years old represented 7.8% of the total population in 2015, and the forecast is that by the year 2030 this frame will reach 13.5%. Besides, another question to consider refers to the increase of foreign workers in Brazil. According to the General Coordination of Immigration (Coordenação Geral de Imigração, 2015), in 2010 decade there were an increase of 280% in work permits to foreign. With this growth of immigrants in the country, in addition to the relative increase in the elderly population and fall of the young population, the hypothesis is that an impact occur in the labor market. To capture these changes in the economy, a computable general equilibrium model will be used, which will allow us to capture the sectoral impacts that demographic changes and increase of immigrants causes in the Brazilian labor market. To do so, the first step was to divide the work force in three skill levels (low, medium and high) and four age groups (young, adult, mature and old) in order to calculate the elasticity of substitution of workers in 62 sectors of the Brazilian economy using the econometric methodology proposed by Das (2003). The first results indicate that workers have varying degrees of substitution, according to different sectors, education and age. In general, the lowest values of the elasticity of substitution belonged to the younger workers while the highest values belonged to the mature ones. This result indicate that mature workers are more replaceable by other age groups. Furthermore, the results indicate imperfect substitutability between workers and that the demographic transition tend to deepen this effect over the years to come. After the calibration of MID-BR (Labour market- Immigration-Demography- Brazil) model, it was possible to simulate the effects of the demographic transition and the entrance of immigrants in the national economy. As simulations’ main results, the increase of more educated workers affects more positively the national product and the sector of Manufacture of automobiles, trucks etc is the most dynamic in the Brazilian economy. The entrance of foreigners in the country positively affects the Brazilian real GDP, however, it decreases the wages of the more educated natives. Using data of the predicted economically active population from ILO Labour Statistics databases (LABORSTA, 2011), a simulation was made to capture the effects of the demographic transition on the 2010 decade. There was a negative effect on real GDP caused by workers new age structure, additionally young and adult age groups had higher wages while mature and elderly presented lower ones.

Demographic and epidemiological change has resulted globally in changes in population and individual health, which, in turn, have resulted in changing care needs. Demographic change in South Africa, mainly through a confluence of declining fertility rates and pre-AIDS increases in life expectancy, has produced an ageing population that is expected to continue ageing for at least the next 10 to 15 years. Currently, South Africa’s older population (60 years+) has a much higher annual average percent growth rate than the total population. Having more older persons than ever before implies increased prevalence of frailty, chronic disease and disability through a tendency of declining physical, mental and cognitive functional capacities—hence meaning a larger demand for care. The changing age structure of a population is commonly associated with changes in health, disease and cause of death patterns. Recent research indicates an intensive, quadruple burden of disease, with the major addition of HIV/AIDS to persistent pre-transitional conditions, non-communicable conditions, and high rates of injuries—implying an extensive and diverse need for care. While demographic and epidemiological change have led to an increased demand for care, health system change, shortages in formal public health care delivery, and the spiralling costs of private care have led to decreased availability of formal care. Care-requiring persons therefore may need to rely increasingly on ‘informal care’, defined here as ‘care provided at home to another person who, because of frailty disability or ill-health, cannot manage on his/her own’. Research on informal care in developed nations is well-established and extensive, but has received very little attention in South Africa where it is not clear how many and who it is that are informal carers. The thesis study has hence been conducted to contribute to the limited research in the field of informal care, aiming to establish the national extent of informal care, and to present a demographic and socio-economic profile of informal carers. A multi-stage stratified area cluster probability sample of 2704 persons was drawn from free-living adults in a nationally-representative household survey in 2000. Field data were collected during 2611 individual face-to-face interviews. Basic univariate and logistic regression analyses were conducted. Of the adult population, 27% were found to be informal carers. Significant prevalence differences were found regarding sex, population group, geographic residence, education, employment status, and income. Adjusting for selected demographic characteristics, the significance status and levels of some relationships changed. It is concluded that informal caregiving is widespread in South Africa. While demographic and epidemiological evidence suggest that the reliance on informal carers is expected to increase, many informal carers are struggling to shoulder the physical, mental and financial burden. A national strategy to focus on informal carers is recommended, to raise awareness about their essential role and value in the health care system; to recognize their contributions to population and individual health; to comprehensively support them; and to assess their needs and concerns through ongoing research. / Dissertation (MA (Demography))--University of Pretoria, 2006. / Sociology / unrestricted

The demographic revolution in developing countries and Africa with special regards to Zimbabwe Abstract This dissertation aimed to examine the demographic revolution in developing countries, Africa and Zimbabwe. The decline of mortality and fertility everywhere in the world demonstrates the importance of the demographic revolution as a global process. While this universality was central to classic revolution theory, for many decades, it was questioned by demographers because fertility and mortality in Africa did not seem to follow the expected pathway. In sub-Saharan Africa the demographic revolution has been characterised by lagging, discontinuation and is occurring at a faster pace against low levels of socioeconomic development than observed in Europe, which has consequences for population dynamics. Questions have emerged if Africa is indeed different and a homogenous continent regarding demographic processes? However, empirical studies that have explored the unique demographic revolution starting from developing countries, Africa and Zimbabwe are lacking. The first part of the thesis on developing countries showed variations in the reaction of fertility to mortality decrease with historically small gaps and extended gaps in more recent revolutions, plus the much faster decrease in vital rates in many...

1 University education of foreigners in the Czech Republic Abstract The thesis examines evolution, trends and structures of foreigners in tertiary education sector in the Czech Republic and at the same time aims at finding common aspects or differences between students with Czech citizenship and without it. In the theoretical part of examining university education for foreigners the concept of third demographic transition has been applied. The Associated Student Register Information (SIMS) has been used as the main data source. In this thesis, the analysis is based on individual anonymized data of graduates in the period between 2001 and 2017. The analysis focuses on net duration of study with such independent variables as gender, age, study field, form of study, type of university and citizenship. The analytical part also examines the relationship between gender and its possible dependence on citizenship, study field and on the net duration of study. One of the conclusions of this work is that the number of Czech students has been progressively decreasing in the last few years, while the number of foreign students in the Czech Republic is growing. Still, the net duration of study is shorter for Czech graduates than for foreigners, with an exception of Slovak students with a shorter net duration of study...

[pt] Eu desenvolvo um modelo de gerações sobrepostas com crescimento salarial ao longo do ciclo de vida (LCWP, por sua sigla em inglês), taxa de mortalidade dependente da idade, restrições de liquidez e rigidez nominal. O modelo é calibrado para capturar a transição demográfica dos EUA, estimativas de LCWP e outras características importantes da economia dos EUA durante o período 3;72-4239. O modelo é usado para examinar a relação entre dados demográficos e taxas de juros reais assim como os principais mecanismos de transmissão em jogo. Eu encontro que o rápido aumento da população em idade ativa entre 3;72 e 3;:2 contribuiu significativamente para o aumento das taxas de juros reais. A reversão desse processo, juntamente com o aumento da expectativa de vida, desencadeou um rápido declínio nas taxas de juros desde então. A heterogeneidade na propensão marginal a consumir entre os trabalhadores desempenha um papel importante na conexão desses movimentos de fertilidade e taxa de juros real. Num exercício adicional, devido à evidência de grandes erros de previsão da expectativa de vida, eu estendo o modelo com um processo de aprendizado sobre longevidade e encontro que ele pode aumentar significativamente a relevância de fatores demográficos na explicação dos movimentos reais das taxas de juros. Por fim, encontro que a falha dos bancos centrais em levar em conta a relação entre dados demográficos e taxas de juros pode gerar, devido a mudanças não monitoradas na taxa de juros natural, variações na taxa de inflação. / [en] I develop an overlapping generations model with life cycle wage profile (LCWP), age-dependent mortality rate, liquidity constraints, and nominal rigidities. The model is calibrated to capture US demographic transition, LCWP estimations, and other salient features of the US economy during 3;72-4239. The model is then used to examine the relationship between demographics and real interest rates and the main transmission mechanisms in play. I find that the rapid increase in the working age population from 3;72-3;:2s has significantly contributed to the rise of real interest rates. The reversion of this process together with the increase in life expectancy triggered a rapid decline in the interest rates ever since. The heterogeneity in the marginal propensity to consume among workers plays a major role in connecting these fertility and real interest rate movements. In an additional exercise, due to the evidence on large life expectancy forecast errors, I introduce a learning process about longevity and find that it can significantly a ugment t he r elevance o f d emographic f actors in explaining real interest rate movements. Finally, I find t hat t he central banks failure to recognize the relationship between demographics and interest rates can generate, due to unaccounted changes in the natural interest rate, inflation rate variations.