Ziel dieses Beitrags ist die Benennung von Anforderungen an eine IT-basierte Forschungs-und Betriebsplattform zur Unterstützung eines Frühwarnsystems, welches Defizite bei der Zusammenarbeit und Kommunikation von Kooperationspartnern in virtuellen Unternehmen (VU) frühzeitig erkennen und Optionen zur Beseitigung dieser Defizite anbieten soll. Bestandteile dieser Plattform sind web-basierte adaptive Fragebögen und ein elektronisches Kommunikationstagebuch. Neben der Darstellung von Anforderungen an diese Softwarewerkzeuge erfolgt eine konzeptionelle Beschreibung ihrer Funktionsweise. Die Entwicklung des Frühwarnsystems erfolgt im Rahmen des interdisziplinären Projekts @VirtU [1]. Der Fokus der Forschungsarbeiten liegt dabei u. a. auf der Betrachtung von Motivationsfaktoren für die Teamarbeit, der Teamkommunikation und dem Informationsaustausch zwischen den Partnern in einem VU. Im Rahmen von @VirtU werden VU als eine Kooperationsform voneinander unabhängiger Wertschöpfungseinheiten angesehen, in welcher das Managementprinzip der „virtual organization“ (vgl. Mowshowitz [2]) umgesetzt wird. Gegenstand des zu entwickelnden Frühwarnsystems sind VU im engeren Sinne, d. h. die Missionsnetzwerke, in denen der Wertschöpfungsprozess stattfindet (vgl. Neumann, Meyer [3] in diesem Band).

Ziel dieses Beitrags ist die Benennung von Anforderungen an eine IT-basierte Forschungs-und Betriebsplattform zur Unterstützung eines Frühwarnsystems, welches Defizite bei der Zusammenarbeit und Kommunikation von Kooperationspartnern in virtuellen Unternehmen (VU) frühzeitig erkennen und Optionen zur Beseitigung dieser Defizite anbieten soll. Bestandteile dieser Plattform sind web-basierte adaptive Fragebögen und ein elektronisches Kommunikationstagebuch. Neben der Darstellung von Anforderungen an diese Softwarewerkzeuge erfolgt eine konzeptionelle Beschreibung ihrer Funktionsweise. Die Entwicklung des Frühwarnsystems erfolgt im Rahmen des interdisziplinären Projekts @VirtU [1]. Der Fokus der Forschungsarbeiten liegt dabei u. a. auf der Betrachtung von Motivationsfaktoren für die Teamarbeit, der Teamkommunikation und dem Informationsaustausch zwischen den Partnern in einem VU. Im Rahmen von @VirtU werden VU als eine Kooperationsform voneinander unabhängiger Wertschöpfungseinheiten angesehen, in welcher das Managementprinzip der „virtual organization“ (vgl. Mowshowitz [2]) umgesetzt wird. Gegenstand des zu entwickelnden Frühwarnsystems sind VU im engeren Sinne, d. h. die Missionsnetzwerke, in denen der Wertschöpfungsprozess stattfindet (vgl. Neumann, Meyer [3] in diesem Band).

Climate change affects Sweden by causing mild winters and increased precipitation during the winter season. This will affect the risk for flooding in areas close to water. Flood warnings mean to mitigate and prevent damages that may occur due to flooding.  The purpose of this study is to research how Swedish municipalities and county administrations communicate flood risks and risk preparedness with each other and the Swedish meteorological and hydrological institute (SMHI) to avoid damages. The study also researches how a consequence based early warning system affects the communication and preparedness for flood risks between municipalities, county administrations and SMHI. The subjects of the study are four municipalities and two county administrations that have a significant risk of flooding around the lake Vänern. The methods used are semi-structured interviews for data collection and qualitative data analysis. The result is discussed in relationship to the theoretical frameworks risk governance, risk society and risk communication.  The results of the study show that there is a difference between how municipalities and county administrations perceive the communication between them and SMHI which is the official source of weather-related warnings in Sweden. The relationship between the municipalities and county administrations is mostly good while the relationship between municipalities and SMHI is less so. The communication between county administrations and SMHI is better than that between SMHI and the municipalities. The county administrations believe a new, consequence based early warning system may have a positive impact on the communication between the stakeholders while the municipalities believe the impact will be small or none. The municipalities and county administrations agree that a consequence based early warning system will have a positive effect on the preparedness for floods. / Klimatförändringarna påverkar Sverige med mildare vintrar och en ökad nederbörd under vinterhalvåret som kommer påverka översvämningsrisken i vattennära områden. Översvämningsvarningar är en åtgärd för att mildra och förebygga skador som kan uppstå till följd av höga vattenflöden, höga vattennivåer och skyfall. Studiens syfte är att undersöka hur kommuner och länsstyrelser kommunicerar med varandra och med Sveriges meteorologiska och hydrologiska institut (SMHI) om översvämningsrisker och beredskap för att anpassa och undvika skador. Studien undersöker även hur ett konsekvensbaserat varningssystem påverkar översvämningsberedskap och kommunikation mellan kommuner, länsstyrelser och SMHI. Undersökningens urval består av fyra kommuner och två länsstyrelser med utpekad översvämningsrisk i området kring Vänern. I studien används metoderna semi-strukturerad intervju och kvalitativ innehållsanalys som datainsamlings- och analysmetoder och dess resultat diskuteras utifrån de teoretiska ramverken om riskstyrning, risksamhället och riskkommunikation.  Resultatet pekar mot att det finns en dissonans mellan kommuner och länsstyrelsers uppfattning av den kommunikation som bedrivs mellan dem och SMHI som utfärdar vädervarningar i Sverige. Kommunernas relation till länsstyrelserna är mestadels god medan deras relation till SMHI är mindre god. Kommunikationen mellan Länsstyrelse och SMHI är bättre än den mellan kommun och SMHI. Kommunerna upplever inte att ett konsekvensbaserat varningssystem kommer påverka kommunikationen mellan dem, länsstyrelserna och SMHI. Länsstyrelserna tror däremot att den nya kommunikationskedja som följer med det konsekvensbaserade varningssystemet kan ha en positiv effekt på kommunikationen. Både kommuner och länsstyrelser anser att ett konsekvensbaserat varningssystem kan påverka översvämningsberedskapen positivt.

No description available.

Yes / Modern early warning system (EWS) requires sophisticated knowledge of the natural hazards, the urban context and underlying risk factors to enable dynamic and timely decision making (e.g., hazard detection, hazard preparedness). Landslides are a common form of natural hazard with a global impact and closely linked to a variety of other hazards. EWS for landslides prediction and detection relies on scientific methods and models which requires input from the time series data, such as the earth observation (EO) and urban environment data. Such data sets are produced by a variety of remote sensing satellites and Internet of things sensors which are deployed in the landslide prone areas. To this end, the automatic discovery of potential time series data sources has become a challenge due to the complexity and high variety of data sources. To solve this hard research problem, in this paper, we propose a novel ontology, namely Landslip Ontology, to provide the knowledge base that establishes relationship between landslide hazard and EO and urban data sources. The purpose of Landslip Ontology is to facilitate time series data source discovery for the verification and prediction of landslide hazards. The ontology is evaluated based on scenarios and competency questions to verify the coverage and consistency. Moreover, the ontology can also be used to realize the implementation of data sources discovery system which is an essential component in EWS that needs to manage (store, search, process) rich information from heterogeneous data sources.

No / Early warning systems (EWS) for electrical grid infrastructure have played a significant role in the efficient management of electricity supply in natural hazard prone areas. Modern EWS rely on scientific methods to analyze a variety of Earth Observation and ancillary data provided by multiple and heterogeneous data sources for the monitoring of electrical grid infrastructure. Furthermore, through cooperation, EWS for natural hazards contribute to monitoring by reporting hazard events that are associated with a particular electrical grid network. Additionally, sophisticated domain knowledge of natural hazards and electrical grid is also required to enable dynamic and timely decision‐making about the management of electrical grid infrastructure in serious hazards. In this paper, we propose a data integration and analytics system that enables an interaction between natural hazard EWS and electrical grid EWS to contribute to electrical grid network monitoring and support decision‐making for electrical grid infrastructure management. We prototype the system using landslides as an example natural hazard for the grid infrastructure monitoring. Essentially, the system consists of background knowledge about landslides as well as information about data sources to facilitate the process of data integration and analysis. Using the knowledge modeled, the prototype system can report the occurrence of landslides and suggest potential data sources for the electrical grid network monitoring. / FloodPrep, Grant/Award Number: (NE/P017134/1); LandSlip, Grant/Award Number: (NE/P000681/1)

No description available.

This thesis develops an early warning system framework for assessing systemic risks and for predicting systemic events, i.e. periods of extreme financial instability with potential real costs, over the short horizon of six quarters and the long horizon of twelve quarters on the panel of 14 countries both advanced and developing. Firstly, Financial Stress Index is built aggregating indicators from equity, foreign exchange, security and money markets in order to identify starting dates of systemic financial crises for each country in the panel. Secondly, the selection of early warning indicators for assessment and prediction of systemic risks is undertaken in a two- step approach; relevant prediction horizons for each indicator are found by means of a univariate logit model followed by the application of Bayesian model averaging method to identify the most useful indicators. Next, logit models containing useful indicators only are estimated on the panel while their in-sample and out-of-sample performance is assessed by a variety of measures. Finally, having applied the constructed EWS for both horizons to the Czech Republic it was found that even though models for both horizons perform very well in-sample, i.e. both predict 100% of crises, only the long model attains the maximum utility of 0,5 as...

Submitted by JOSIANE SANTOS DE OLIVEIRA (josianeso) on 2018-05-10T16:18:29Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Guilherme Wunsch_.pdf: 1561848 bytes, checksum: a76d1849547a47a7e7387c9be36d2f92 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-05-10T16:18:29Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Guilherme Wunsch_.pdf: 1561848 bytes, checksum: a76d1849547a47a7e7387c9be36d2f92 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-02-28 / CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Triagem é um processo realizado nos departamentos de emergência de hospitais que visa ordenar o atendimento dos pacientes de acordo com suas necessidades de cuidados. Por outro lado, um sistema de alerta precoce se trata de um protocolo empregado pelos hospitais para detectar a deterioração dos sinais vitais (gravidade) dos pacientes. Quando bem efetuados, esses processos podem potencialmente aumentar as chances de vida dos pacientes com alto grau de complicações, guiando seu tratamento e o correto diagnóstico. A mobilidade é uma necessidade por profissionais da área de saúde para desempenhar suas atividades diárias e isso vai ao encontro da ascensão da computação móvel e ubíqua. Dispositivos vestíveis e dispositivos inteligentesestão cada vez mais presentes no nosso cotidiano. Com isso, esse trabalho tem como objetivo desenvolver um modelo computacional, denominado de UbiTriagem 2, para apoio ao processo triagem que suporta um sistema de alerta precoce, fazendo o uso dos conceitos da computação móvel e ubíqua e Internet das coisas voltados à área de saúde. A principal contribuição científica desse trabalho foi prever a interoperabilidade entre diferentes protocolos de triagem e de deterioração de sinais vitais (gravidade) empregados hoje nos hospitais fazendo o uso de uma ontologia. Além disso, outra preocupação foi agregar, também nessa ontologia, informações coletadas de diferentes sensores IoT (como fonte de dados) para inferir a triagem e a gravidade dos pacientes. O modelo foi avaliado através de cenários, que mostraram que o modelo está apto para ser utilizado em um departamento de emergência. Em relação à triagem, foi possível concluir que o modelo foi capaz de determinar corretamente a classificação do paciente em 93,33% das situações avaliadas e, com pequenos ajustes, atingimos 100% dos casos. O sistema de alerta precoce se mostrou assertivo em 86,71% dos casos, por outro lado podemos concluir que ele se assemelha muito à avaliação qualitativa efetuada por um médico regulador especialista em emergências. Além disso em 63,61% de todos os casos atendidos em um departamento de emergência, vindos do SAMU, poderiam ser beneficiados por esse modelo. Por fim, com a avaliação efetuada através da metodologia de grupo focal, podemos destacar como pontos positivo do modelo desenvolvido: a utilização de protocolos já validados; o acompanhamento das filas de atendimento; o uso de dispositivos móveis; a diminuição em erros na utilização dos protocolos; o uso de dispositivos vestíveis para o monitoramento dos pacientes; um modelo não-intrusivo; o auxílio no registro de dados do atendimento; um maior respaldo às decisões dos enfermeiros; a diminuição das taxas de mortalidade e de maiores complicações; e a diminuição no custo do atendimento por paciente. / Triage is a process performed in the emergency department of hospitals aimed at sorting the patients according to their needs of care. On the other hand, an early warning system is a protocol used by hospitals to detect the deterioration of patient’s vital signs. When well performed, these processes can potentially increase the chances of life of patients with a high degree of complications, guiding their treatment and the correct diagnosis. Mobility is a musthave requirement for healthcare professionals to perform their daily activities and this is in the same way with the rise of mobile and ubiquitous computing. Mobile and wearable devices are increasingly present in our daily lives. This study aims to develop a computational model, called UbiTriagem 2, to support the triage process, supporting an early warning system, using the concepts of mobile and ubiquitous computing and Internet of things related to healthcare. The main scientific contribution of this study was to propose the interoperability between different protocols of triage and deterioration of vital signs (severity) used today in hospitals using an ontology. In addition, another concern was to aggregate, also in the ontology, information collected from different IoT sensors (as data source) to infer the triage and severity of patients. The model was evaluated through scenarios, which showed that the model is apt to be used in an emergency department. In relation to the triage, it was possible to conclude that the model was able to correctly determine the patient’s classification in 93.33% of the evaluated situations and, with minor adjustments, reached 100% of the cases. The early warning system was assertive in 86.71% of the cases, on the other hand we can conclude that it closely resembles the qualitative evaluation carried out by an emergency medical regulator. In addition, 63.61% of all cases from SAMU in the emergency department could benefit from this model. Finally, with the evaluation made through the focus group methodology, we can highlight as positive points of the developed model: the use of already validated protocols; the follow-up of the service queues; the use of mobile devices; the decrease in errors in the use of protocols; the use of wearable devices to monitor patients; a non-intrusive model; the aid in recording attendance data; greater support for nurses’ decisions; the reduction of mortality rates and major complications; and the decrease in the cost of care per patient.

Les Systèmes d’alerte précoce (SAP) sont des dispositifs d’évaluation de la sécurité alimentaire permettant de guider les décideurs humanitaires et gouvernementaux dans le ciblage de l’aide alimentaire d’urgence, grâce à des analyses quantifiées et cartographiées. Analysé au travers du prisme sociologique, le SAP est lu comme un système expert flou permettant de stabiliser des consensus institutionnels dans des environnements incertains, grâce à son investissement de forme chiffré et cartographié. La thèse est articulée autour de l’hypothèse centrale que le SAP éthiopien participe aux stratégies d’extraversion de l’aide internationale par l’État-Parti, renforçant ses capacités de contrôle et d’encadrement des populations et de l’administration. Cette hypothèse est vérifiée au travers d’analyses de jeux d’acteurs – les experts en charge du ciblage de l’aide, agissant comme des courtiers de développement situés aux interfaces institutionnelles multiples – , au travers des normes professionnelles, pratiques et sociales mobilisées lors des exercices d’évaluation, et des jeux d’échelles passant du micro au macro. Une première partie démontre comment le registre technico-scientifique du SAP découle des représentations techniques et apolitiques des famines et de l’évolution du régime de l’aide alimentaire internationale. L’exploration ethnographique de la pratique des agents révèle que les normes officielles du SAP éthiopien relèvent d’une hybridation entre des normes humanitaires et des normes de la bureaucratie éthiopienne. Les généalogies des normes humanitaires et de la bureaucratie éthiopiennes conduites au travers d’analyses sociologiques, anthropologiques et historiques, mettent en exergue comment le registre technique permet d’agréger ces deux mondes institutionnels, en occultant toute dimension politique. Un retour ethnographique détaillant les jeux de normes montre comment leur articulation par les agents, le long des échelles de la hiérarchie, est présidée par l’empirisme et la négociation, aménageant les marges de manœuvre aux kadre du Parti, pour influer discrètement sur les résultats et le ciblage de l’aide. À l’échelle villageoise, nous verrons comment le ciblage de l’aide renforce l’encadrement et le contrôle des populations par les kadre. Enfin, nous reviendrons sur les enjeux méthodologiques des enquêtes de terrain conduites par un ancien humanitaire. / Early Warning Systems (EWS) are food security assessment devices that quantify the need of food aid for humanitarian and government decision-makers in the targeting of emergency food aid through quantified and mapped analyzes. Analyzed through the sociological prism, the EWS is a blurr « system of expertise » stabilizing institutional consensus in uncertain environments, thanks to its investment of quantified and mapped form. The thesis is based on the central hypothesis that the Ethiopian EWS participates in strategies of extraversion of the international aid by the State Party, reinforcing its capacities of control and supervision of the populations and the administration. This hypothesis is verified through analyzes of experts in charge of targeting aid, acting as development brokers located at multiple institutional interfaces - through their professional, practical and social norms, and following different steps from micro to macro scales of the device. We shall first recall how the technical-scientific register of EWS derives from the technical and apolitical representations of famines and the evolution of the international food aid regime. A first ethnographic exploration of the practice of agents reveals that these norms are a hybridization between humanitarian norms and bureaucratic norms. We will study these norms separately through sociological, anthropological and historical analyzes, highlighting how the technical register makes possible to aggregate these two universes, hidding political dimensions. An ethnographic study detailing the sets of norms will show how their articulation by the agents, along the hierarchical scales, is presided over by empiricism and negotiation, adjusting the margins of maneuver to the kadre of the Party, to discreetly influence the results and the target of aid. At the village level, we will see how the targeting of aid reinforces the supervision and control of the populations by the kadre. Finally, we will return to the methodological stakes of the field investigations conducted by a former humanitarian.