A multi-period optimal energy planning program for Ontario has been developed in mixed-integer non-linear programming using General Algebraic Modeling System, GAMS. The program applies both time-dependent and time-independent constraints. These include, but not limited to, construction time, fluctuation of fuel prices, and CO2 emission reduction target. It also offer flexibility of fuel balancing and fuel switching of the existing boilers and option purchasing of Carbon credit if the reduction target is not achievable. The objective function incorporates all these constraints as well as minimizes over all the cost of electricity and meets the projected electricity demand over the 30 years horizon. A number of Ontario study cases are performed utilizing this 30 years model. These cases include a number of CO2 emission reduction target from 6% to 75% below that of 1990 levels by 2014, doubling of natural gas over the forecasted price in 2020, an arbitrary year. A study case in appliance with the Environmental Protection Act where no new or existing coal-fired power stations are available after 2014, as well as study cases where no new nuclear power stations are available. The overall cost of the electricity for different CO2 emission reduction targets increases linearly with slope of ~ 5. The fuel switching, fuel balancing for coal stations, and retrofitting of the carbon capture and storage are the main strategy in order to keep the cost of electricity relative low and satisfy the CO2 emission constraints. Nuclear power is an essential supply technology to the fleet especially when CO2 emission is concerned. An additional 248 Mt of CO2 emission is observed over the reference case when no new nuclear supply is offered. Eliminating all coal technologies by 2014 in accordance to the Environmental Protection Act may also reduce the CO2 emission with less additional expenditure normally associated with the emission reduction processes. This however also reduces the energy port folio diversity, forcing the system to depend on a smaller group of supply technologies and decreasing the reliability of the system overall. These results help us better understand the factors affecting the fleet’s structure. It may also help plan the energy direction of Ontario and perhaps serve as an example for other provinces, territories, states, and even countries.

A multi-period optimal energy planning program for Ontario has been developed in mixed-integer non-linear programming using General Algebraic Modeling System, GAMS. The program applies both time-dependent and time-independent constraints. These include, but not limited to, construction time, fluctuation of fuel prices, and CO2 emission reduction target. It also offer flexibility of fuel balancing and fuel switching of the existing boilers and option purchasing of Carbon credit if the reduction target is not achievable. The objective function incorporates all these constraints as well as minimizes over all the cost of electricity and meets the projected electricity demand over the 30 years horizon. A number of Ontario study cases are performed utilizing this 30 years model. These cases include a number of CO2 emission reduction target from 6% to 75% below that of 1990 levels by 2014, doubling of natural gas over the forecasted price in 2020, an arbitrary year. A study case in appliance with the Environmental Protection Act where no new or existing coal-fired power stations are available after 2014, as well as study cases where no new nuclear power stations are available. The overall cost of the electricity for different CO2 emission reduction targets increases linearly with slope of ~ 5. The fuel switching, fuel balancing for coal stations, and retrofitting of the carbon capture and storage are the main strategy in order to keep the cost of electricity relative low and satisfy the CO2 emission constraints. Nuclear power is an essential supply technology to the fleet especially when CO2 emission is concerned. An additional 248 Mt of CO2 emission is observed over the reference case when no new nuclear supply is offered. Eliminating all coal technologies by 2014 in accordance to the Environmental Protection Act may also reduce the CO2 emission with less additional expenditure normally associated with the emission reduction processes. This however also reduces the energy port folio diversity, forcing the system to depend on a smaller group of supply technologies and decreasing the reliability of the system overall. These results help us better understand the factors affecting the fleet’s structure. It may also help plan the energy direction of Ontario and perhaps serve as an example for other provinces, territories, states, and even countries.

This report asks how Austin Energy can optimally operate residential energy efficiency and demand side management programs including demand response measures. Efficient energy use is the act of using less energy to provide the same level of service. Demand side management encompasses utility initiatives that modify the level and pattern of electrical use by customers, without adjusting consumer behavior. Demand side management is required when a utility must respond to increasing energy needs, or demand, by its customers. In order to achieve the 20% carbon emissions and 800 MW peak demand reductions mandate of the Generation, Resource and Climate Plan, AE must aggressively pursue an increase in customer participation by expanding education and technical services, enlist the full functionality of a smart grid and subsequently reduce energy consumption, peak demand, and greenhouse gas emissions. Energy efficiency is in fact the cheapest source of energy that Austin Energy has at its disposal between 2010 and 2020. But this service threatens Austin Energy’s revenues. With the ascent of onsite renewable energy generation and advanced demand side management, utilities must address the ways they generate revenues. As greenhouse gas emissions regulations lurk on the horizon, the century-old business model of “spinning meters” will be fundamentally challenged nationally in the coming years. Austin Energy can develop robust analytical methods to determine its most cost-effective energy efficiency options, while creating a clear policy direction of promoting energy efficiency while addressing the three-fold challenges of peak demand, greenhouse gas emissions and total energy savings. This report concludes by providing market-transforming recommendations for Austin Energy. / text

As the public and policy makers continue to become more concerned with climate change, researchers continue to seek to understand and explain energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions trends and their drivers. Living and existing in different areas is associated with different impacts, so growth in different areas, as well as the movement of people to and from those areas will affect energy use and emissions over US, individual states, and counties. First the emissions implications of state to state mobility on household energy and GHG emissions are explored. 3 million households move across state lines annually, and generally move from the North East to the South and West. Migrating households often move to states with different climates, and thus heating and cooling and needs, different fuel mixes, and different regional electricity grids which leads them to experience changes in household emissions as a result of their move. Under current migration trends, the emissions increases of households moving from the Northeast to the South and Southwest are balanced by the emissions decreases of households moving to California and the Pacific Northwest. The net sum of emissions changes for migrating households is slightly positive but near zero; however, that net zero sum represents the balance of many emission changes. Summing emissions changes over individual states and regions show the regional differences in household emissions. Next, a similar analysis is conducted for the 120,000 households that annually move between counties in Pennsylvania. From 2006–2010, the emissions changes experienced by those households balanced to near zero values, similar to the state analysis. The emissions increases from households moving to metropolitan fringe and suburban counties were countered by the emissions decreases from households moving to low emission urban centers, even though urban centers experienced net negative migration. While emission changes experienced by households were dominated by differences in emissions from residential energy use, emission changes for household moving within Pennsylvania were dominated by differences from transportation emissions. Finally, this thesis explores the long term effects of growth and decline at the metropolitan level by estimating fossil based CO2 emissions from1900−2000 for Allegheny County, Pennsylvania. From 1970 to 2000, Allegheny County experienced a 30% decrease in total emissions and energy use from peak values, primarily because of a decline in industrial activity! (40% decrease in value added) and the loss of a quarter of its population. Allegheny County’s history suggests that the scale of change needed to achieve local emissions reductions may be significant; given years of major technological, economic, and demographic changes, per capita emissions in 1940 were nearly the same in 2000. Most local governments are planning emissions reductions rates that exceed 1% per year, which deviate significantly from historical trends. These results suggest additional resources and improved planning paradigms are likely necessary to achieve significant emissions reductions, especially for areas where emissions are still increasing. This work shows that overtime, growth and decline within a! region drives its evolving GHG footprint. Population decline within region may lead to emission reductions, as seen in the Allegheny County, but those reductions are more accurately described as displaced emissions due to population redistribution. From 2005-2010, the mobility of the US population between states, regions and counties was responsible for many household emissions changes that balance annually over the entire US. The near zero sum represents the v precarious emissions balance of two kinds of household moves. First, moves resulting in moderate emissions increases either as a result of households moving to higher carbon regions, like the South or South West, or as a result of households moving higher carbon suburban counties within states. Second, moves resulting in significant emissions decreases! As a result of households moving to low carbon regions or low carbon urban centers. Planning for continued low carbon growth in low carbon regions or cities experiencing high growth rates driven by migration, like California or Philadelphia, is essential in order to offset the moderate emissions increases experienced by households moving to high carbon regions or suburban areas.

En France comme en Suisse, les collectivités territoriales s'imposent comme des acteurs majeurs de la transition énergétique, une transition dont la mise en œuvre nécessite un important renouvellement des instruments d'intervention publics. Ce sont les enjeux et les conditions d'un tel renouvellement que le présent travail se donne pour objectif d'examiner, à partir des expériences de planification énergétique territoriale menées sur l'agglomération franco-valdo-genevoise. Conçues comme des démarches de relocalisation des filières énergétiques – filières dont nombre de composantes étaient, avec les énergies fossiles, externes aux territoires consommateurs –, ces démarches de planification énergétique sont ici examinées à partir d'une grille de lecture d'inspiration institutionnaliste et pragmatiste.Consistant à appréhender ces démarches comme autant d'enquêtes ayant vocation, à travers un travail collectif de (ré)équipement cognitif du champ d'intervention territorial FVG, à initier et accompagner la reconstruction des modes de coordination des hommes au sujet de leur territoire – territoire entendu dans sa triple dimension matérielle, organisationnelle et politique – , cette grille ouvre vers une double lecture des expériences de planification énergétique. La première se concentre sur la dimension organisationnelle de ces enquêtes en devenir, c'est-à-dire sur les cultures d'action en présence et les modalités d'interaction entre elles, tandis que la seconde porte sur la substance cognitive qui sert de support à ces interactions, c'est-à-dire sur les logiques de réflexion qui président à la mobilisation et à la production des représentations territoriales liées à ces démarches.Cette double lecture permet de tirer des enseignements à différents niveaux. Le premier concerne le champ (cognitif) d'intervention territorial que ces démarches de planification énergétique contribuent à dessiner. Un champ qui, bien que de mieux en mieux appréhendé dans ses dimensions techniques, reste à la fois limité et « déformé » de telle sorte qu'il valorise davantage les filières fossiles, dont on souhaiterait s'affranchir, que les filières renouvelables que l'on souhaiterait leur substituer. Le second niveau d'enseignement porte sur les processus de production de connaissances territoriales (PPCT) qui président à la délimitation et à « l'équipement » de ce champ d'intervention. Appréhendés à travers les normes institutionnelles qui les encadrent, et les cultures d'action dont les interactions peuvent initier des processus de déstabilisation-reconstruction de ces normes, ces PPCT s'avèrent donner naissance à des « zones-frontières » sociocognitives, zones favorables à de telles reconfigurations, mais nécessitant, dans le cas FVG, un travail préalable « d'aménagement ».C'est sur les facteurs les plus déterminants pour la qualité de cet « aménagement » – un aménagement qui n'est plus seulement cognitif mais qui renvoie, plus globalement, aux conditions de mise en œuvre d'enquêtes dont la finalité ultime demeure bien l'action collective territoriale – que se concentre la troisième catégorie d'enseignements. Ouvrant sur les défis comme sur les pistes de renouvellement ouvertes, au niveau des modes d'action publics, par ces démarches de planification énergétique, ces éléments permettent aussi de porter un nouveau regard sur le projet d'agglomération en construction sur ce territoire transfrontalier. / In France as in Switzerland, local authorities stand out as leading players of energy transition, a transition that requires an important renewal of public intervention instruments. It is the stakes and the conditions of such a renewal that the present work aims to examine, based on the experiments of territorial energy planning led on the franco-valdo-genevan cross-border territory. Conceived as initiatives of relocation of the energy supply system, these energy planning initiatives are examined through an institutionalist and pragmatic « reading template ».This « reading template » consists of seeing these energy planning initiatives as pragmatist inquiries aiming, through a collective work of cognitive equipment of the territorial franco-valdo-genevan field of intervention, at the reconstruction of the means of coordination between people about their material, organizational and political territory. It opens towards a double reading of the energy planning initiatives. The first one concentrates on the organizational dimension of these inquiries - i.e. on the cultures of action which they gather and the modalities of interaction between them - whereas the second focuses on the cognitive substance which represents the medium of the interactions.This double reading provides insights at various levels. The first one concerns the (cognitive) territorial field of intervention that these energy-planning experiments contribute to draw. A field which, although better and better characterized in its technical dimensions, remains at the same time limited and " deformed " so that it values more the fossil energy systems, from which we want to release ourselves, than the renewable ones, which we would like to replace them with.The second level of teaching concerns the processes of production of territorial knowledge (PPTK) which presides over the demarcation and « equipment » of the territorial field of intervention. Examined through the institutional norms and the culture of action at stake in them, this PPTK turns out to create a sociocognitive "cross-border" area, the kind of area that could shelter the desired reconfigurations…on the condition that they are beforehand correctly “equipped”, in cognitive and also in organizational terms.The determining factor for the quality of this equipment is concentrated in the third category of teaching. Starting with the opportunities created by these energy planning experiments concerning the renewal of public intervention instruments, these elements also allow us to take a new look at the urban area project under construction in this cross-border territory, a project that shows itself closely linked to the energy experiments through a common challenge of territorialisation.

Orientadora: Profa. Dra. Patrícia Teixeira Leite Asano / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Federal do ABC. Programa de Pós-Graduação em Energia, 2015. / O Sistema Interligado Nacional Brasileiro é um sistema elétrico de potência de dimensões continentais que fornece uma fonte confiável de energia elétrica, no entanto, perturbações, como por exemplo, blecautes são passíveis de ocorrer, por isso se faz necessário considerar as medidas a fim de reduzir a sua duração e seus efeitos. Sabe-se que o processo de recomposição de um sistema elétrico, após perturbação que impede o fornecimento de energia elétrica, é uma atividade que visa restabelecer com rapidez e segurança a condição normal de operação até o atendimento pleno da carga desligada. No Brasil este processo inicia-se a partir de usinas equipadas com unidades geradoras de auto restabelecimento (black start), que permitem a energização de áreas próximas "geoelétricamente" dessas usinas. Para que um sistema de energia seja recomposto o mais rápido e de forma confiável, planos de recomposição detalhados são necessários, pois efetivamente reduz o impacto de um blecaute no sistema de energia, e consequentemente para a sociedade. Portanto, este projeto de pesquisa apresenta a avaliação dinâmica adotada pelo operador nacional do sistema e propõe a avaliação hidroenergética a partir da Usina Hidroelétrica Henry Borden no plano de restabelecimento de cargas prioritárias dependentes desta usina em cenários operativos distintos. O foco da avaliação dinâmica é analisar a viabilidade da inserção do bombeamento de água entre bacias ou rios com objetivo de verificar a viabilidade desta operação. Já o objetivo da avaliação hidroenergética será na determinação dos volumes mínimos e vazões necessárias para a garantia energética do atendimento da área geoelétrica de responsabilidade desta usina e for fim, a partir destas avaliações também é possível analisar se a transferência de água contribuirá para o atendimento de um montante maior de carga. / The Brazilian National Interconnected System is an electric power system of continental dimensions that provides a reliable source of electricity, however, disturbances such as blackouts are likely to occur, so it is necessary to consider measures to reduce its duration and its effects. It is known that the process of restoration of an electrical system after disturbance preventing the supply of electricity, is an activity that aims to restore quickly and safely to normal operating condition until full compliance with the off load. In Brazil this process starts from power plants equipped with auto restoration generating units (black start), which allow the energizing nearby areas "geo electrically" these plants. So a power system is recomposed as quickly and reliably, detailed recovery plans are necessary because effectively reduces the impact of a blackout in the power system, and consequently for society. So this research project presents the dynamic assessment adopted by the national system operator and proposes hydro energy assessment from the Henry Borden hydroelectric plant in restoring dependent priority loads plan for this plant in different operating scenarios. The focus of dynamic assessment is to analyze the feasibility of inserting the pumping of water from ponds or rivers in order to verify the viability of this operation. But the energy hydro objective of the evaluation is to determine the minimum volumes and necessary flows for energy guarantee the care of the geoelectric area of responsibility of this plant and for order from these assessments is also possible to analyze the transfer of water will help to meet a larger amount of charge.

Submitted by WILLIAM TEODORO DA SILVA null (williamteodoroarq@terra.com.br) on 2016-09-05T17:34:14Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação William Teodoro 05 set 16.pdf: 29727684 bytes, checksum: 563d2b5195d5fd13bc7d23f0ca09bf28 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Juliano Benedito Ferreira (julianoferreira@reitoria.unesp.br) on 2016-09-08T20:29:32Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 silva_wtt_me_guara.pdf: 29727684 bytes, checksum: 563d2b5195d5fd13bc7d23f0ca09bf28 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-09-08T20:29:32Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 silva_wtt_me_guara.pdf: 29727684 bytes, checksum: 563d2b5195d5fd13bc7d23f0ca09bf28 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-08-04 / O crescimento urbano descontrolado gera uma série de problemas como a favelização, a ocupação de áreas irregulares e a quebra do planejamento socioeconômico do município. Além disso, sempre que surge uma comunidade ou uma zona industrial sem planejamento, o poder público deve levar toda infraestrutura urbana para o local. Sendo o saneamento e o fornecimento de energia aspectos fundamentais para a sustentabilidade de cidades, identificase a necessidade de se entender as relações entre desenvolvimento e planejamento urbano e o uso de energia elétrica. Nesse sentido, o presente trabalho propõe-se a estudar as relações entre morfologia urbana e demografia e uso de energia elétrica no setor de saneamento, mais especificamente, para o abastecimento de água e esgotamento sanitário. Para a análise da influência da morfologia e demografia urbana sobre o uso de energia elétrica em sistemas de saneamento através de um estudo na Região Metropolitana do Vale do Paraíba e Litoral Norte do estado de São Paulo foram identificados 10 indicadores, dentre eles 3 morfométricos (Relação de Forma, Relação de Compacidade e Relação de Alongamento), 3 demográficos (Densidade de População Urbana, Densidade de Emprego nos Centros Urbanos e Índice de Distribuição de Domicílios) e 4 energéticos (Consumo Total de Energia Elétrica nos Sistemas de Água, Consumo Total de Energia Elétrica nos Sistemas de Esgoto, Índice de Consumo de Energia Elétrica em Sistemas de Abastecimento de Água e Índice de Consumo de energia elétrica em sistemas de Esgotamento sanitário). Através da correlação de cada indicador morfométrico e demográfico com os índices de consumo de energia elétrica (água e esgoto), foi possível identificar até que ponto essa influência pode ser confirmada. / The uncontrolled urban growth raises a series of problems such as slum, irregular areas, occupation and the breakdown of social and economic planning. In addition, whenever a community or an industrial area without planning, the Government should take all urban infrastructure for the site. Being the sanitation and the power supply fundamental aspects for sustainability, identifies the need to understand the relationships between urban development and planning and the use of electric energy. In this sense, the present work is proposed to study the relations between morphology and urban demographics and usage of electrical energy in the sanitation sector, more specifically, to the water supply and sanitation. For the analysis of the influence of morphology and urban demographics about the use of electricity in sanitation systems through a study on the metropolitan region of the Paraíba Valley and Northern coast of São Paulo 10 indicators were identified, including morphometric 3 (Shape, Compactness and stretching), 3 (demographic density of urban population , Density of employment in Urban Centers and Density index of households) and energy 4 (Total consumption of Electric Energy in water Systems, Total Electric Power Consumption in sewer Systems, electric power Consumption index in water supply systems and electric energy consumption index in sewage supply systems). Through the correlation of morphometric and demographic indicator each with the indexes of electric power consumption (water and sewer), it was possible to identify the extent to which this influence can be confirmed.

Os efeitos multidisciplinares presentes em projetos de engenharia, sobretudo naqueles de infra-estrutura, têm alargado as fronteiras de pesquisas para avaliá-los não só do ponto de vista convencional técnico econômico, mas também sob a ótica ambiental e social. Por outro lado, o investidor que tradicionalmente buscava oportunidades apenas considerando o desempenho econômico e financeiro, atualmente é levado a analisar os empreendimentos também no âmbito social e ambiental. Fundamentado em várias informações disponíveis em bases de dados constituídas por diversas instituições, o modelo desenvolvido nesta pesquisa é uma solução para avaliar o mérito de um empreendimento de geração distribuída de origem térmica, considerando os aspectos econômico, social e ambiental, por meio de indicadores que quantificam, objetivamente, aspectos econômicos como taxa de retorno de capital e margem liquida, bem como fatores sociais como o impacto na educação, na saúde, na renda e no emprego e ainda, verifica o atendimento das restrições ambientais. A solução apresentada, sem prejuízo da avaliação dos aspectos pragmáticos relativos à viabilidade econômica e respeito à regulamentação ambiental, traz uma forma simples e clara de atribuir um grau de mérito agregado às alternativas de implementação de geração distribuída, considerando a intensidade da responsabilidade social subjetiva do investidor. A análise de cenários e de sensibilidade diante da variação de parâmetros diversos que o modelo oferece, permite aferir o grau de robustez e de importância da precisão de variáveis específicas. Embora não esgote o tema, o modelo apresentado contribui para estimular diferentes formas de avaliar e priorizar multidisciplinarmente a implementação um empreendimento de geração distribuída, podendo inclusive, se prestar como indicador de financiamentos privilegiados ou outros incentivos do gênero. / The multidiscipline effects in engineering projects, mainly in those of infrastructure, have extended the borders of research to not only evaluate them of the conventional point of view, economic and technical, but also environmental and social. On the other hand, the investor who traditionally searched alternatives only considering the economic and financial performance currently is taken to analyze also the social and environmental aspects. Based on some information available in several institutions databases, the model developed in this research is a solution to evaluate the merit of an enterprise of distributed generation of thermal origin, considering the economic, social and environmental aspects, using merit indexes that quantify, directly, economic aspects as capital return tax and operating income eliminates, as well as social factors like the impact in the education, health, income and employment rates and still, it verifies the attendance of the environmental restrictions. The solution presented, without damage the evaluation of the pragmatic aspects related to economic viability and respect to the ambient regulation, brings a simple and clear form to attribute a merit degree of aggregate to the alternatives to embed distributed generation, considering the intensity of the subjective social responsibility of the investor. The analysis of sceneries and sensitivity ahead of the diverse parameter variation that the model offers, allows investigating the robustness degree and accuracy importance of specific variable. Although it does not deplete the subject, the presented model is an important contribution to stimulate a form to evaluate and to prioritize the multidiscipline implementation to a distributed generation enterprise, also being able, to be used as financial index or other incentives of the sort.

Esta dissertação tem como objetivo a elaboração de um estudo a respeito da interferência das variações de temperatura ambiente e umidade relativa do ar no comportamento da demanda de energia elétrica e formação do Custo Marginal de Operação (CMO) no Brasil. A partir da busca do entendimento das etapas do processo de Planejamento da Operação e da Programação da Operação Diária, para o atendimento da carga do Sistema Interligado Nacional (SIN), cujos processos são detalhados ao longo deste trabalho, é feita uma análise comparativa entre os valores programados e realizados tanto de geração, quanto da demanda de energia elétrica, de forma a se tentar quantificar o quanto as variáveis temperatura ambiente e umidade relativa do ar influenciam no resultado da operação hidrotérmica diária. Após a quantificação dessa influência em termos de aumento de consumo de energia elétrica, é realizada uma nova simulação de despacho hidrotérmico, utilizando para isso um modelo de otimização comercialmente disponível, com o objetivo de se avaliar quais são os desvios no CMO, quando da ocorrência de desvios na curva diária de demanda de energia elétrica programada. São abordados ao longo deste estudo os seguintes itens: histórico do processo de planejamento, o planejamento da operação energética, a influência da temperatura ambiente e umidade relativa do ar no comportamento da demanda de energia elétrica, finalmente é proposto um estudo de caso para se avaliar qual a relação entre as variáveis climáticas estudadas e os desvios na curva de demanda de energia elétrica e CMO do SIN. / This thesis aims at the elaboration of a study regarding the interference of changes in temperature and relative humidity in the behavior of the demand for electric power and formation of the Marginal Cost of Operation (CMO) in Brazil. From the search for understanding of the steps involved in Operation Planning and Programming of Operation Daily, to meet the burden of the National Interconnected System (SIN), whose cases are detailed throughout this work, is a comparative analysis between the values planned and performed both for generating, as the demand for electricity in order to try to quantify how much the variable temperature and relative humidity influence the outcome of the operation hydrothermal daily. After the quantification of that influence in terms of increased consumption of electricity, a new simulation is performed in order hydrothermal, using it to a type of commercially available optimization, in order to assess what are the differences in CMO, at the time deviations from the curve of daily demand for electricity scheduled. Are addressed throughout this study the following items: the historical process of planning, energy planning the operation, the influence of temperature and relative humidity in the behavior of the demand for electricity, is finally offered a case study to evaluate what is the relationship between climatic variables and studied the differences in the curve of demand for electricity and CMO of the SIN.

Orientador: Andre Felipe Simões / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Mecanica / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-14T07:29:47Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Tiezzi_RafaeldeOliveira_M.pdf: 2575812 bytes, checksum: a2db99c9081c7277f3f8a969432ae890 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009 / Resumo: O presente trabalho foi motivado pelo grande foco que os governos, mídias, ONG's, empresas e a sociedade de uma forma geral, vêm dando à questão da mudança climática global. Neste sentido estima-se que até 2100, a temperatura média global pode elevar-se, na média, de 2ºC a mais de 4ºC (IPCC, 2007). O presente trabalho adota a linha de estudo voltada a análise dos impactos gerados pelas mudanças climáticas, ou ainda, previsão de impactos gerados pelas mudanças climáticas em um cenário futuro de curto e médio prazo. Desta forma o presente estudo visa estabelecer relações entre segurança energética e mudanças climáticas, porém tem como objeto de estudo principal uma região em escala micro, no caso a Bacia Hidrográfica do Alto Paranapanema, o que diferencia este trabalho dos demais realizados no Brasil até então. Foram analisadas as influências das mudanças climáticas sobre a capacidade de geração de energia hidrelétrica em duas de suas mais tradicionais formas de geração, quais sejam: Usinas Hidrelétricas de grande porte e Pequenas Centrais Hidrelétricas (PCHs) de pequeno porte. Foi feito um estudo hidrológico da Bacia onde foram associados os cenários futuros sobre as mudanças do clima, especificamente os cenários de anomalias pluviométricas, e a mudança na vazão. Tal associação foi realizada através do modelo matemático SMAP (Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure). A vazão, por sua vez, alterada pela influência climática foi simulada no modelo HidroLab resultando na geração de energia hidrelétrica. Os resultados apontam uma perda de capacidade de geração. Tais perdas podem ser atribuídas às anomalias negativas de chuva encontradas pela modelagem realizada por Hamada et. al. (2008) e sua direta influência na vazão dos rios, fator este fundamental na geração de energia hidráulica. Porém o que chama a atenção é a não-linearidade entre tais fatores de perda. / Abstract: This work was motivated by the major focus for governments, media, ONGs, businesses and society in general, have been giving the issue of global climate change. In this sense it is estimated that by 2100, the average global temperature may rise, to 2 º C for more than 4 º C (IPCC, 2007). This paper adopts the line of study focuses the analysis of the impacts generated by climate change or, estimates of impacts generated by climate change in a scenario of future in short and medium term. Thus this study aims to establish links between energy security and climate change, but has as main object of study a region in micro scale, in the Alto Paranapanema Watershed, which differentiates this study from other work carried out in Brazil until then. For this, was examined the influences of climate change on the ability to generate hydroelectric power in two of its most traditional forms generation, namely: large-scale hydroelectric and small hydroelectric plants exchangers (PCHs. Was made a study of the hydrological basin where they were associated with future scenarios on climate change, specifically the scenarios of rainfall anomalies, and the change in flow. This association was made through the mathematical model SMAP (Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure). The flow, in turn, influence the altered climate was simulated in the model HidroLab resulting in the generation of hydroelectric power. The results indicate a loss of generation capacity. Such losses can be attributed to negative anomalies of rainfall found by modeling performed by Hamada et. al. (2008) and its direct influence on the flow of rivers, this fundamental factor in the generation of hydropower. But what draws attention is the nonlinearity of such factors of loss. / Mestrado / Planejamento de Sistemas Energeticos / Mestre em Planejamento de Sistemas Energéticos