<p>Enligt lagen om kommunal energiplanering ska varje svensk kommun ha en energiplan för tillförsel för tillförsel och användning av energi. Huruvida energiplanering är ett bra sätt att styra det kommunala energisystemet är dock omdebatterat. Denna avhandling studerar innehåll i, och implementering av, ett antal svenska kommunala energiplaner. Energiplanernas effektivitet studeras på två nivåer: uppfyllelse av mål och visioner i planerna, samt hur detta bidrar till att uppfylla de nationella energipolitiska målen.</p><p>Forskningen baseras på tre studier: en studie av innehållet i tolv energiplaner från Östergötland, en studie av mål och visioner i sju energiplaner och hur energisystem utvecklats efter energiplanerna antagits, samt en fallstudie av Kungälvs kommun där mål och måluppfyllelse studerats mer utförligt. Innehåll och målformuleringar i energiplanerna har analyserats med avseende på miljö, effektiv energianvändning och systemnivå. Mål och måluppfyllelse har även analyserats med avseende på aktörer.</p><p>Resultaten visar på att de studerade energiplanerna har smal systemsyn och att de miljöanalyser som finns i planerna är undermåliga. Energiplaneringen har varit effektiv till viss del. Bäst måluppfyllelse har kommunerna när det gäller mål på en relativt låg systemnivå och när det är kommunen själv som äger frågan, exempelvis fjärrvärmeutbyggnad och energieffektivisering av kommunens lokaler. När det gäller utvecklingens bidrag till de nationella energipolitiska målen är resultaten varierande: användning av biobränslen har ökat avsevärt, medan självförsörjningsgraden på el bara ökat något. Bäst är utvecklingen när det gäller minskade koldioxidutsläpp.</p><p>Baserat på bristerna som upptäckts i de studerade energiplanerna och dess implementering förs en diskussion kring möjligheter att öka energiplaneringens effektivitet och vidga systemsynen. Förbättringar som diskuteras är att stärka kopplingen till fysisk planering, och att inkludera medborgarmedverkan och miljöbedömningar. Om kopplingen till energifrågor stärks i översiktlig planering och om även privata aktörer kommer till tals under planeringsprocessen, skulle detta kunna underlätta implementering av energiplanerna. Miljöbedömningar i sin tur kan bidra med en vidare systemsyn om mer relevanta mål i planerna. Slutligen föreslås att ramverket för miljöbedömning av planer och program (2001/42/EC) kan användas vid energiplanering eftersom det framhåller vikten av breda analyser, samråd med privata aktörer och miljöbedömningar.</p> / <p>Swedish municipalities are required to produce a municipal energy plan for energy supply and use. Whether energy planning is suitable to manage local energy systems, however, is subject to debate. This thesis explores municipal energy planning and development of local energy systems after energy plans were adopted to examine whether energy planning is effective. The effectiveness of energy planning is studied on two levels: in terms of whether goals in energy plans were implemented, and whether energy planning contributes to fulfilling national energy policy goals.</p><p>The research is based on three studies. In the first, the scope of twelve municipal energy plans from a Swedish region was assessed. In the second study, goals and visions in seven energy plans were analysed and compared to the development of the local energy systems. The third case involved Kungälv municipality, where the implementation of goals in its energy plan was studied more thoroughly. Scopes and goals in the energy plans were analysed from three perspectives: the environment, energy efficiency and the systems level. Goals and development were also analysed from an actor’s perspective.</p><p>The results show that the scopes of the studied energy plans have narrow systems boundaries, and that the environmental analyses presented in the plans are very basic. Energy planning was found to have been fairly effective in terms of fulfilment of goals in energy plans. Most positive developments are for goals on a relatively low systems level when the local authority owns the issue, for example district heating expansion and energy efficiency measures in public buildings. When it comes to contributing to national energy policy goals, results vary; use of biomass has increased, but selfsufficiency in electricity supply has increased only slightly. The most favourable development when it comes to energy-related emissions is the reduction of carbon dioxide.</p><p>Based on shortcomings identified in the studied energy plans and implementation, possibilities to increase the effectiveness and widen the scope of energy planning are discussed. Improvements are discussed in terms of urban planning as well as participative planning, and with respect to the environmental assessment of plans. If energy issues are included in urban planning and a participatory planning approach is used, this could facilitate the implementation of energy plans. Including environmental assessment could facilitate wide scopes and more relevant goals. It is also proposed that the EU framework for environmental assessment of plans and programmes (2001/42/EC) can be used for energy planning, since it includes a comprehensive approach, public participation, and environmental assessment.</p>

Enligt lagen om kommunal energiplanering ska varje svensk kommun ha en energiplan för tillförsel för tillförsel och användning av energi. Huruvida energiplanering är ett bra sätt att styra det kommunala energisystemet är dock omdebatterat. Denna avhandling studerar innehåll i, och implementering av, ett antal svenska kommunala energiplaner. Energiplanernas effektivitet studeras på två nivåer: uppfyllelse av mål och visioner i planerna, samt hur detta bidrar till att uppfylla de nationella energipolitiska målen. Forskningen baseras på tre studier: en studie av innehållet i tolv energiplaner från Östergötland, en studie av mål och visioner i sju energiplaner och hur energisystem utvecklats efter energiplanerna antagits, samt en fallstudie av Kungälvs kommun där mål och måluppfyllelse studerats mer utförligt. Innehåll och målformuleringar i energiplanerna har analyserats med avseende på miljö, effektiv energianvändning och systemnivå. Mål och måluppfyllelse har även analyserats med avseende på aktörer. Resultaten visar på att de studerade energiplanerna har smal systemsyn och att de miljöanalyser som finns i planerna är undermåliga. Energiplaneringen har varit effektiv till viss del. Bäst måluppfyllelse har kommunerna när det gäller mål på en relativt låg systemnivå och när det är kommunen själv som äger frågan, exempelvis fjärrvärmeutbyggnad och energieffektivisering av kommunens lokaler. När det gäller utvecklingens bidrag till de nationella energipolitiska målen är resultaten varierande: användning av biobränslen har ökat avsevärt, medan självförsörjningsgraden på el bara ökat något. Bäst är utvecklingen när det gäller minskade koldioxidutsläpp. Baserat på bristerna som upptäckts i de studerade energiplanerna och dess implementering förs en diskussion kring möjligheter att öka energiplaneringens effektivitet och vidga systemsynen. Förbättringar som diskuteras är att stärka kopplingen till fysisk planering, och att inkludera medborgarmedverkan och miljöbedömningar. Om kopplingen till energifrågor stärks i översiktlig planering och om även privata aktörer kommer till tals under planeringsprocessen, skulle detta kunna underlätta implementering av energiplanerna. Miljöbedömningar i sin tur kan bidra med en vidare systemsyn om mer relevanta mål i planerna. Slutligen föreslås att ramverket för miljöbedömning av planer och program (2001/42/EC) kan användas vid energiplanering eftersom det framhåller vikten av breda analyser, samråd med privata aktörer och miljöbedömningar. / Swedish municipalities are required to produce a municipal energy plan for energy supply and use. Whether energy planning is suitable to manage local energy systems, however, is subject to debate. This thesis explores municipal energy planning and development of local energy systems after energy plans were adopted to examine whether energy planning is effective. The effectiveness of energy planning is studied on two levels: in terms of whether goals in energy plans were implemented, and whether energy planning contributes to fulfilling national energy policy goals. The research is based on three studies. In the first, the scope of twelve municipal energy plans from a Swedish region was assessed. In the second study, goals and visions in seven energy plans were analysed and compared to the development of the local energy systems. The third case involved Kungälv municipality, where the implementation of goals in its energy plan was studied more thoroughly. Scopes and goals in the energy plans were analysed from three perspectives: the environment, energy efficiency and the systems level. Goals and development were also analysed from an actor’s perspective. The results show that the scopes of the studied energy plans have narrow systems boundaries, and that the environmental analyses presented in the plans are very basic. Energy planning was found to have been fairly effective in terms of fulfilment of goals in energy plans. Most positive developments are for goals on a relatively low systems level when the local authority owns the issue, for example district heating expansion and energy efficiency measures in public buildings. When it comes to contributing to national energy policy goals, results vary; use of biomass has increased, but selfsufficiency in electricity supply has increased only slightly. The most favourable development when it comes to energy-related emissions is the reduction of carbon dioxide. Based on shortcomings identified in the studied energy plans and implementation, possibilities to increase the effectiveness and widen the scope of energy planning are discussed. Improvements are discussed in terms of urban planning as well as participative planning, and with respect to the environmental assessment of plans. If energy issues are included in urban planning and a participatory planning approach is used, this could facilitate the implementation of energy plans. Including environmental assessment could facilitate wide scopes and more relevant goals. It is also proposed that the EU framework for environmental assessment of plans and programmes (2001/42/EC) can be used for energy planning, since it includes a comprehensive approach, public participation, and environmental assessment.

This study examines the possibility of electricity production through gasification of agricultural residues in Sudan. The study begins in Chapter 1, by providing general contextual analysis of the energy situation (production and consumption patterns) in Sudan with specific focus on electricity. It proceeded to study the potential of Petroleum, Biomass and other renewable sources for electricity production. Dramatic increase in electricity production was found to be essential especially through decentralised power plants as the current electricity production services cover ~ 13 % of the population of Sudan. Biomass potential in Sudan justifies the use of agricultural residues as energy source; its potential was estimated by ~ 350000 TJ/a. Further, the urban centres of arid regions in western Sudan were identified as the target group for this study. In chapter 2, specific investigations for selected study area through field work using statistical tools such as questionnaires, interviews and field observation show that income is highly correlated to electricity consumption. The flat rate system did not result in higher consumption thus the assumption that this consumption will not drastically change in the next 10 years could be accepted. As orientation value for BGPP, 8000 tons of GN.S are available annually, the average electricity consumption is ~ 4 kWh/day/family while acceptable price could be 40 SDD/kWh (0.15 €). In chapter 3, literature review was carried to spot out the comparative merits of the gasification technology and the most optimum gasifying and electricity production system. As a result downdraft gasifier and ICE were suggested as suitable systems. In chapter 4, fuel properties and fuel properties of agricultural residues were studied, different samples were tested and the results were presented. The main conclusions derived were: fuel properties of agricultural residues are modifiable properties, so utlization planning is possible as for any other energy resource. In Sudan, Baggase, Groundnuts shells and Roselle stalks could be considered as possible fuels. The experimental work done in chapter 5 showed that GN.S could be gasified in down draft gasifiers, which are less costly and simpler to operate than circulating systems. Acceptable values of gas thermal properties (c.v.~ 4 MJ/Nm3, 30 % of burnable gases) at fairly continuing processes were obtained. In chapter 6, a concept for biomass power plant was drafted, the main components are: downdraft, air based gasifier connected to ICE, multi-stage gas cleaning system (cyclones, washer and filters) mechanical ash removal and semi closed water cycle. Main operation measures are: electricity is the sole product; working time is 150 day/year between mid Novembermid Mars. Environmental hazards of waste management e.g. flue gas emission and waste water management are the limiting factors. In the last part of chapter 6 an economic analysis was carried out. At a value of 3000 €/kW for the initial system and fuel price of 100000 €/year for ~6 GWh then a price of 0.23 €/kWh and a return period of 24 years could be obtained. The study concludes in chapter 7 that biomass gasification under the local conditions has its comparative merits however a high institutional support is needed at the beginning. / Diese Studie untersucht die Möglichkeit der Elektrizitätsproduktion durch Vergasung von landwirtschaftlichen Abfällen im Sudan. Die Untersuchung beginnt im Kapitel 1 mit der Bereitstellung einer allgemeinen zusammenhängenden Analyse der Energiesituation (Produktions- und Verbrauchsmuster) im Sudan mit dem besonderen Fokus auf Elektrizität, gefolgt von einer Studie des Potentials von Petroleum, Biomasse und anderer erneuerbarer Quellen für die Produktion von Elektrizität. Eine starke Zunahme bei der Elektrizitätsproduktion wurde als nötig bewertet, da dezentrale Kraftwerke, als die gegenwärtigen Elektrizitätsproduktionsbetriebe, nur die Versorgung von 13 % der Bevölkerung im Sudan abdecken. Das geschätzte Potential der landwirtschaftlichen Abfälle liegt bei ca. 350.000 TJ/Jahre damit kommen sie als Energiequelle in Frage. Weiterhin wurden urbane Zentren der ariden Regionen in Westsudan als Zielgruppe für die Untersuchung ausgewählt. In Kapitel 2 werden detaillierte Untersuchungen für das ausgewählte Studiengebiet durch Feldstudien unter Verwendung von statistischen Werkzeugen, wie Fragebögen, Interviews und Felduntersuchungen dargestellt. Das Ergebnis zeigt, dass das Einkommen im höchsten Maße mit dem Elektrizitätsverbrauch korreliert ist. Das Flat rate System hatte keinen höheren Verbrauch zur Folge, folglich kann die Annahme akzeptiert werden, dass sich der Verbrauch in den nächsten 10 Jahren nicht drastisch ändern wird. Als Orientierungswert für Biomasse Kraftwerk: 8.000 t/Jahr Erdnussschalen sind verfügbar. Der durchschnittliche Elektrizitätsverbrauch beträgt ca. 4 kWh/Tag/Familie betrachtet für 10.000 Familien. Im Kapitel 3 wird eine Literaturrecherche für die Vergasungstechnologie durchgeführt, zum Vergleich ihrer Vorteile und zur Auswahl des optimalen Vergasungs- und Gasumwandlungssystems. Als Ergebnis wurden der Festbett-Gleichstrom-Vergaser und gas Motor als passende Systeme vorgeschlagen. In Kapitel 4 werden Brennstoff Eigenschaften von landwirtschaftlichen Abfällen untersucht, verschiedene Proben getestet und die Ergebnisse präsentiert. Die Hauptschlussfolgerung daraus ist: Brennstoff Eigenschaften von landwirtschaftlichen Abfällen sind veränderbare Eigenschaften, welche eine bessere Planung erlauben und somit ihre Verwendung favorisieren. Im Sudan können Bagasse, Erdnussschalen und Rosellenstiele als optimaler Brennstoff gelten. Die experimentelle Arbeit in Kapitel 5 zeigt, dass Erdnussschalen im 75 kW Festbett-Gleichstrom-Systemen vergast werden können, welche weniger kostenintensiv und einfach zu bedienen sind als zirkulierende Systeme. Akzeptable Werte der Gaseigenschaften (c.v. ca. 4 MJ/Nm³, 35 % von brennbaren Gasen) wurden in kontinuierlichen Prozessen erreicht. In Kapitel 6 wurde ein Konzept für Biomassekraftwerke entworfen. Deren Hauptkomponenten sind: Festbett-Gleichstrom-Vergaser in Verbindung mit ICE, mehrstufige Gasreinigungssysteme (Zyklone, Wäscher und Filter), mechanische Aschensysteme und ein teilweise geschlossener Wasserkreislauf. Hauptbetriebsmaßnahmen sind: Elektrizität als das einzige Produkt, die Arbeitszeit beträgt 150 Tage pro Jahr zwischen November und April. Umweltrisiken des Abfallmanagements z.B. Rauchgas und Abwassermanagement sind die limitierenden Faktoren. Im letzten Teil von Kapitel 6 wurde eine ökonomische Analyse durchgeführt. Ein Wert von 3000 €/kW für das Anfangssystem und ein Kraftstoffpreis von 100.000 €/Jahr für 6 GWh dann ein Preis von 0,23 €/kWh und eine Amortisationszeit von 24 Jahren können angenommen werden. Die Studie schlussfolgert, dass die Vergasung unter den Bedingungen des Studiengebietes ihre Vorteile hat, jedoch ist institutionelle Unterstützung am Anfang nötig.

[pt] O crescimento da população urbana e o incremento na demanda por energia elétrica para residências brasileiras, especialmente em zonas costeiras, indicam a relevância do aproveitamento da energia oceânica para o Brasil. Neste cenário, o trabalho investiga o potencial de energia de ondas na orla da cidade do Rio de Janeiro e suas possíveis relações com o planejamento sustentável da engenharia urbana costeira. O estudo sobre a microbacia do Bairro do Leme, localizado na orla oceânica da zona sul da cidade do Rio de Janeiro, estima um potencial de energia oceânica por aproveitamento energético das ondas do mar capaz de suprir a demanda de energia elétrica para toda a população do Bairro em torno de 14.000 pessoas. O potencial energético das ondas foi estimado a partir da análise estatística de um prognóstico anual do clima de ondas para essa orla, elaborado através da modelagem computacional de propagação de ondas. Sendo utilizados onze anos dados de onda extraídos do modelo global ERA/INTERIM. Em um modelo físico-reduzido (escala 1:40) do perfil tipo da orla do Leme, construído em canal de ondas irregulares, foi avaliada a vulnerabilidade da orla ao risco de galgamento de ondas durante extremos de marés de ressaca. Nos ensaios de modelagem física também foram testadas soluções de engenharia com vistas ao aproveitamento e controle do potencial energético de ondas. Com os resultados obtidos das modelagens, discute-se um plano conceitual para resiliência urbano-costeira da orla oceânica baseado na reengenharia do perfil de praia elaborado no projeto de obra estabelecido em 1970. / [en] The growth of urban population and the increasing demand for electricity to Brazilian consumers, especially in coastal areas, indicate the importance of the use of ocean energy for Brazil. In this scenario, this thesis investigates the wave energy potential on the south area of the city of Rio de Janeiro and its possible relation to sustainable planning of the coastal urban engineering. About 3.9 billion people (54 per cent of world population) live in urban areas. It is estimated that the growth of cities should result in an urban population of over 6.4 billion people by 2050, especially in the less developed areas, with poor urban planning and vulnerable to environmental risks (UN-Habitat, 2016). The urbanization of coastal areas in developing countries demands greater attention due to infrastructure needs and the necessary management to mitigate pressures of increasing human activities on the environment (Cicin-Sain and Knecht, 1998). This framework is particularly important for Brazil that has a high degree of urbanization with marked concentration of population in its coastline (IBGE, 2015) with urban interventions on ocean beaches through works poorly integrated into the city, neglecting nature s ability to claim the balance taken away from her. According to the report Act Now or Pay Later, made by the organization Christian Aid, the rapid growth of urban populations along the coastlines of the world and the growing threat of climate change display evidences that more than one billion people will be vulnerable to coastal flooding in 2060 (Doig and Ware, 2016), in cities exposed to rising sea level, which should increase for the next century in global average between 0.18 and 0.70 meters above the current level (IPCC, 2014).

[pt] O Planejamento da Operação Energética de Médio Prazo do Sistema Interligado Nacional (SIN) é um problema de decisão sob incerteza, com acoplamentos espacial e temporal. A solução vigente determina a política ótima através do algoritmo Programação Dinâmica Dual Estocástica (PDDE), onde a incerteza hidrológica é representada como um processo Periódico Autorregressivo (PAR). Para a aplicação do planejamento, uma restrição do modelo PAR é a possibilidade do mesmo simular valores negativos de afluência. A abordagem usada no modelo para que este gere apenas valores positivos criou uma relação de dependência entre os resíduos do modelo e as afluências passadas, em detrimento da premissa de independência temporal assumida pela PDDE. Neste contexto, o modelo Periódico Vetorial Autorregressivo com erro multiplicativo (PVARm) torna-se interessante para representação da incerteza das afluências, visto que, junto ao método de estimação adotado, garante as premissas da PDDE, além de incorporar a correlação espacial das afluências na própria formulação do modelo. Este trabalho apresenta o modelo PVARm aplicado à geração de cenários para atendimento do processo de otimização, a partir de dados do SIN. A estimação do modelo considera as mudanças de topologia das usinas ao longo do horizonte de planejamento e avalia dois critérios de identificação – ordem fixa unitária e ordem selecionada a partir da menor soma de erros de ajuste. Os cenários gerados são comparados aos cenários gerados pelo modelo que representa aquele vigente, o PAR. A comparação se baseia nos quesitos reprodução de estatísticas mensais e anuais e na adequação dos modelos, medida por testes de sequências. Os resultados mostraram que o PVARm de ordem unitária fixa apresentou comportamento satisfatório na maioria dos testes e motivou a continuidade dos estudos para aplicação no Planejamento da Operação Energética do SIN. / [en] The Medium-Term Energy Planning of the National Interconnected System (SIN) is a decision-making problem under uncertainty, coupled in space and time. The official solution uses the Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming (SDDP) algorithm, where uncertainty is represented as a Periodic Autoregressive (PAR) process. Specifically for the Planning application, the possibility of PAR simulates negative streamflow values is a limitation of the model. The approach used in PAR to solve this question creates a link between the current residual and the past streamflow in spite of the stochastic component stage-wise independency assumption of SDDP algorithm. In this context, the Periodic Vector Autoregressive model with multiplicative error (PVARm) becomes interesting for streamflow formulation, since it guarantees the PDDE assumptions, it can simulate only positive streamflow values, besides incorporating the spatial inflows correlation. This work presents the PVARm model applied to the simulation of scenarios to attend the optimization process, based on data from the SIN. The estimation of the model is considered as the topology change of the last decades for the planning and selection of two classification criteria - unit and alternative fixed order from the smallest sum of model errors of fit. The scenarios generated are compared to the scenarios generated by the model that represent the current one, the PAR. The comparison is based on the results of the monthly and annual statistics measurement and the adequacy of the models, as measured by sequence tests. The results were that the PVAR is of a type of test that was not implemented in most of the tests and motivated the continuity of the studies for the application in the Planning of the Energy Operation of the SIN.

Orientadora: Profa. Dra. Patrícia Teixeira Leite Asano / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Federal do ABC. Programa de Pós-Graduação em Energia, 2017. / As consequências do desenvolvimento econômico, em especial, o aumento da intensidade e variedade dos usos dos recursos hídricos promove o desequilíbrio entre a demanda e a oferta de água, ocasionando conflitos entre usuários. O presente estudo investigou o desempenho do Reservatório Billings, que está inserido na bacia do Alto Tietê no Estado de São Paulo, e foi criado inicialmente, em 1927, para atender o abastecimento de energia elétrica de origem hidráulica, e que atualmente também é utilizado para atendimento do abastecimento público. Baseado neste contexto, buscou-se verificar o seu desempenho quanto ao atendimento do seu recurso água para atender as demandas de abastecimento urbano e de geração de energia concomitantemente. Sendo assim, para análise do desempenho do sistema Reservatório, foram adotados três cenários de operação para o Reservatório. No primeiro cenário, foram considerados diferentes valores de transferência de água para o Reservatório Billings, e adotou-se demanda consuntiva fixa. Para o segundo cenário, foram consideradas diferentes demandas consuntivas baseados nos valores adotados pelo Operador Nacional do Sistema elétrico brasileiro com ano-base 2016, e não se considerou a transferência de água. O terceiro cenário, foi considerada a proposta de utilização do reúso potável indireto da água, a fim de auxiliar na recarga do reservatório, e considerou diferentes demandas consuntivas, de modo semelhante ao segundo cenário. Com base nesses cenários, foram calculados os indicadores de desempenho estatísticos: confiabilidade, resiliência, vulnerabilidade, e o Índice de Sustentabilidade Hídrica para esse sistema. Os resultados obtidos para o desempenho do Reservatório Billings no Cenário 1, demonstraram que a medida que houve um incremento na transferência de águas, a confiabilidade, a resiliência e o índice de sustentabilidade hídrica do Reservatório aumentaram, e a vulnerabilidade no atendimento as demandas reduziram. Com o Cenário 2, o aumento da demanda hídrica, aliada a suspensão do bombeamento, levam a baixa confiabilidade, resiliência e redução da sustentabilidade hídrica, e consequentemente apresentou um aumento da vulnerabilidade do sistema. Por fim o Cenário 3, com o aumento do aporte de água advindo da água de reúso, trouxe uma melhoria no desempenho do Reservatório, de modo semelhante ao Cenário 1, aumento da confiabilidade, resiliência e sustentabilidade hídrica, com redução da vulnerabilidade, e com o benefício da redução dos impactos ambientais provindos do lançamento dos esgotos a Billings. Finalizando, pode-se observar a necessidade do aporte hídrico para o Reservatório Billings, no que tange ao atendimento às suas demandas e a sustentabilidade hídrica quando se adota o uso múltiplo da água. / The consequences of economic development, especially the increase in the intensity and variety of uses of water resources, promote the imbalance between demand and water supply, causing conflicts among users. The present study investigated the performance of the Billings Reservoir, which is located in the Alto Tietê basin in the State of São Paulo, and was initially created in 1927 to meet the supply of electric energy of hydraulic origin, Supply. Based on this context, it was sought to verify its performance regarding the attendance of its water resource to meet the demands of urban supply and energy generation concomitantly. Thus, to analyze the performance of the Reservoir system, three operating scenarios were adopted for the Reservoir. In the first scenario, different values of water transfer were considered for the Billings Reservoir, and fixed consumptive demand was adopted. For the second scenario, different consumptive demands were considered based on the values adopted by the National Operator of the Brazilian Electrical System with base year 2016, and water transfer was not considered. The third scenario was considered the proposal to use the indirect drinking water reuse in order to help recharge the reservoir, and considered different consumptive demands, similar to the second scenario. Based on these scenarios, the statistical performance indicators were calculated: reliability, resilience, vulnerability, and the Water Sustainability Index for this system. The results obtained for the performance of the Billings Reservoir in Scenario 1, showed that as the water transfer increment increased, the reliability, resilience and water sustainability index of the Reservoir increased and the vulnerability in meeting the demands reduced. With Scenario 2, the increase in water demand, coupled with the suspension of pumping, leads to low reliability, resilience and reduction of water sustainability, and consequently increased vulnerability of the system. The Scenario 3, with the increase of the water supply coming from the reuse water, brought an improvement in the performance of the Reservoir, similar to Scenario 1, increasing reliability, resilience and water sustainability, with reduction of vulnerability, and with The benefit of reducing environmental impacts from the sewage system to Billings. Finally, it is possible to observe the need of the water supply to the Billings Reservoir, in terms of meeting its demands and water sustainability when adopting the multiple use of water.

O objetivo do trabalho é fazer a avaliação global de alguns dos modos energéticos de transporte do gás natural (gasodutos, GNL e GNC), inclusive como energia secundária (eletricidade e GTL). Para a escolha do melhor modo de transporte, além dos custos de cada projeto, serão considerados outros três fatores, que são: impactos ambientais, impactos sociais e riscos políticos. Para isto foi escolhida uma ferramenta de análise conhecida como Avaliação de Custos Completos (ACC), sendo que esta considera os quatro fatores citados anteriormente como de mesma importância na avaliação para um planejamento que vise a sustentabilidade. Para melhor visualização e entendimento do trabalho, foi feito um estudo de caso para o transporte de energia (gás natural e/ou eletricidade) para atender mercados consumidores na região de fronteira entre o Brasil e a Bolívia. Fundamentalmente o estudo do transporte foi feito em solo boliviano, correspondente entre os campos produtores de gás, localizados em Margarita, até a região de fronteira próxima a Corumbá no Mato Grosso do Sul (MS), e também próxima a uma região com grandes jazidas de minério de ferro conhecida como El Mutún. Metodologicamente dentro das quatro dimensões consideradas, foram usados alguns subcritérios mais relevantes para esta análise. Para todos os sub-critérios foram atribuídas notas específicas, de acordo com a região e com o tipo de transporte de energia, e após isto os dados foram passados para um software de tomada de decisão chamado Decision Lens, obtendo assim um rank das melhores opções transporte para a região. Como resultado, o mais coerente para atender a região, são gasodutos de transporte para as demandas elétricas e de gás natural (consumo do MS mais Mutún) e trens carregados com derivados líquidos do gás natural (GTL) para atender a demanda de diesel do MS. / The objective of this work is to make a global evaluation of some energy ways of transport of natural gas (gas-pipelines, LNG and CNG), as well as secondary energy (electricity and GTL). For the selection of a better way of transport, beyond the costs of each project, others three factors were considered: environmental impacts, social impacts and political risks. To perform this, a tool of analysis known as Evaluation of Complete Costs (ACC in portuguese) was chosen. This tool considers the four factors above mentioned as having the same importance in the evaluation process for planning that aims towards sustainability. For better visualization and understanding of the work, a case study for energy transport was made (natural gas and/or electricity) to supply the consumer markets in the region bordering Brazil and Bolivia. Basically the study of the transport was made in Bolivian territory; at the producing gas fields located in Margarita as far as the region bordering Corumbá in the Mato Grosso do Sul area, and also next to a region with great known iron ore deposits known as El Mutún. Methodologically, within the four dimensions above, some more relevant sub-criteria for the analysis were used. For all the sub-criteria considered specific ranks were taken, in accordance with the region and type of transported energy, and after this the data was fed to a software called Decision Lens, thus getting a rank of the best options to carry gas to the region. The results, most coherent way to supply gas to the region, happens to be gas-pipelines of transport for the electric and natural gas demands (consumption in MS plus Mutún) and trains with liquid derivatives of natural gas (GTL) to supply care of the demand of diesel of MS.

Orientador: Gilberto de Martino Jannuzzi / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Mecanica. / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-05T06:38:56Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Sant'Ana_PauloHenriquedeMello_M.pdf: 1298571 bytes, checksum: 88a415f0bef9274781c2b8bba1a637b4 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2005 / Resumo: A confecção de uma agenda de C,T&I em energia é atualmente um tópico de grande relevância devido à ainda recente liberalização do mercado energético. Com o intuito de se mapear as tecnologias mais promissoras no desenvolvimento da matriz energética brasileira, o projeto de prospecção tecnológica em energia, realizado pelo Centro de Gestão e Estudos Estratégicos (CGEE), teve como finalidade à identificação de alguns conjuntos de tópicos tecnológicos considerados prioritários para investimentos em C,T&I no Brasil para os próximos 20 anos. Esta dissertação, baseada numa das etapas deste projeto, tem como objetivo analisar e validar a consulta Delphi em energia realizada com especialistas da academia, indústria e governo do Brasil. Após a validação desta técnica, um exercício de ranqueamento dos tópicos tecnológicos com as respostas da segunda rodada da consulta é montado para comparar com os resultados do ranqueamento efetuado pelo projeto do CGEE. De acordo com os resultados, a consulta Delphi em energia permite uma mudança de opinião em alguns tópicos tecnológicos, um aumento do consenso (medido através da variação do desvio padrão) e uma convergência dos respondentes menos especializados na direção das médias totais das respostas da primeira rodada; a comparação do ranqueamento com os resultados do CGEE não mostra diferenças significativas, sendo coerente também com os resultados de EuRenDel, 2004 / Abstract: Building a R&D agenda is nowadays an important issue due to the recent liberalization of Brazilian energy market. The chalenge now is to identify the most promising technologies in the development of a Brazilan energy matrix. The ¿Center of Management and Strategic Studies¿ (CGEE) has coordinated a project to identify some technological topics that are supposed to be the most promising to Brazil in the next 20 years. This thesis, based on the second part of this project, aims to validate and analyse the Delphi survey answered by specialists of academy, industry and government in Brazil. After the validation of the technique, a ranking of the technological topics in Delphi¿s second round was made to compare the results with the CGEE¿s ranking. Acording to the results, Delphy¿s technique allows a change of opinion in some topics, an increase of the consensus (measured by the standard deviation), and a convergence of answers from the first to the second round from the less specialized participant in the direction of the average of answers in the first round. The comparison with the CGEE¿s results didn¿t show any considerable differences, showing coherence with EuRenDel (2004) results / Mestrado / Planejamento de Sistemas Energeticos / Mestre em Engenharia Mecânica

Orientador: Sergio Valdir Bajay / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Mecanica / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-06T05:07:08Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Carvalho_ClaudioBezerrade_D.pdf: 1717945 bytes, checksum: 278bbb29104ec96389a1e6616a1dc209 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2005 / Resumo: Este trabalho traz uma avaliação critica do planejamento energético de longo prazo realizado no Pais nos últimos anos e aponta tanto para a necessidade de uma melhor integração entre as atividades de planejamento energético, elaboração de políticas públicas e regulação dos mercados de energia, como para uma premente descentralização do processo de planejamento. Como resultados desta análise e com base em experiências bem sucedidas no exterior, são propostos avanços metodológicos para a elaboração de futuras projeções e o desenvolvimento de um modelo integrado de projeção da demanda e da oferta de energéticos. Como a aplicação de tal modelo está vinculada à utilização de uma base de dados ampla e consistente, é proposto o desenvolvimento de um sistema nacional de informações energéticas, integrado a um sistema de informações executivas, cujo objetivo é servir de suporte para as atividades desenvolvidas pelo Ministério de Minas e Energia. Discute-se os vários métodos de tratamento das incertezas nos modelos energéticos, com destaques para a elaboração de cenários alternativos de desenvolvimento e para o uso da técnica Delphi de levantamento de opiniões de especialistas. Monta-se, por fim, à guisa de um estudo de caso que visa contribuir para o necessário processo de descentralização do planejamento energético no País, cenários alternativos de desenvolvimento para a projeção da demanda energética do Estado da Bahia, de uma forma concatenada com cenários semelhantes no âmbito nacional / Abstract: This work brings a critical evaluation of the long-term energy planning carried out in the country in the last years, pointing out both for the need of a better integration of the activities concerning energy planning, policy making and regulation of energy markets, and for an urgent decentralization of the planning process. As results of this analysis and based on successful experiences abroad,methodological advances are proposed for the elaboration of future forecasts, together with the development of an integrated model for forecasting energy demand and supply. As the application of such a model requires a broad and consistent data basis, setting up a national system of energy information is proposed, integrated to a system of executive information, aimed to support the activities of the Ministry of Mines and Energy. The several methods for treating uncertainties in energy modeling are discussed, with emphasis on the elaboration of alternative development scenarios and the use of the Delphi technique for collecting and processing the opinions of specialists. At the end, alternative development scenarios for forecasting the energy demand in the State of Bahia, linked to similar scenarios at the national level, are elaborated, as a study case aimed to contribute for the necessary decentralization process of energy planning in the country / Doutorado / Planejamento de Sistemas Energeticos / Doutor em Planejamento de Sistemas Energéticos

Orientador: Paulo Sergio Franco Barbosa / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Mecanica / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-06T12:45:30Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Leal_LydianeAbdon_D.pdf: 3076127 bytes, checksum: 6c066308941582d2a02f33339ba32a55 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2005 / Resumo: As relações institucionais e processos decisórios ao longo da cadeia de suprimentos do setor elétrico brasileiro sofreram grandes mudanças durante o processo de reforma, exigindo que a reestruturação da mesma seja adequada às novas exigências de um ambiente misto (estatal e privado) com forças de mercado, presença de empresas estatais e atuação de órgão regulador. Um dos aspectos importantes no processo é a interação entre a regulação exercida pelo estado e a gestão competitiva, fazendo com isso que haja necessidade de um equilíbrio dinâmico entre estes dois elementos. Uma maneira de vislumbrar este equilíbrio e aumentar a eficiência do sistema energético, com os setores da cadeia tornando-se negócios distintos, seria a gestão integrada e a proposição de iniciativas de fomento à cooperação ao longo da cadeia (estendida) de suprimentos, que se apresenta com enormes desafios devido à complexidade para articular agentes de diferentes naturezas e interesses distintos. Neste contexto, o presente trabalho tem como objetivo mostrar como a cadeia de suprimentos da indústria de eletricidade no Brasil está configurada, descrevendo suas transformações frente ao processo regulatório decorrente da reforma do setor elétrico e suas consequências em termos de impacto sobre a cadeia como um todo. A metodologia consiste em utilizar análises qualitativas e quantitativas, para mostrar que a análise sistêmica da cadeia de suprimentos de energia elétrica no Brasil caracteriza-se como instrumento conceitual e metodológico muito apropriado à identificação de potencialidades e fragilidades, as quais comprometem a eficiência do mercado competitivo. Com a descrição de todos estes aspectos a pesquisa pretende mostrar reais contribuições para as necessidades de planejamento na área, destacando-se o esforço na busca de integração e articulação dos componentes e processos do sistema energético mais relevantes à tomada de decisão, bem como a introdução de novos conceitos que se vislumbram promissores para o avanço do conhecimento na área / Abstract: The decision processes and institutional relationships along the stages of the brazilian electricity energy supply chain have been strongly changed during the reform process, thus requiring that restructuring be well fitted to the new hybrid environment (state and private) with market players, state companies and a regulator. One of the most important aspects in this process is the interaction among the state regulation and the competitive management, thus requering a dynamic equilibrium between these two players. A possible way to achieve this equilibrium and also increase the efficiency of the energy system, with separate businesses for each stage of the supply chain, could be the integrative management and the proposal of a set of initiatives to encourage the cooperation along the extended supply chain stages. In this context, this research work aims at presenting the current configuration of the brazilian electricity supply chain, with a description of the main changes after deregulation of the electric sector, as wel as its impacts on the supply chain as a whole. The proposed methodology includes qualitative and quantitative analysis, in order to show that the systemic analysis of the electricity energy supply chain is a conceptual framework very apropriated to the identification of potentialities and weakness that can pose risks to the efficiency in the competitive markets. With the description of all these aspects, this researck work aims at bring real contributions to the current planning needs in the area, with specific emphasis on the efforts to achieve integration and conexion among the most relevant components and processes of the energy system to decision making process, as well as the introduction of new concepts with potential to extend the present knowledge in this area / Doutorado / Planejamento de Sistemas Energeticos / Doutor em Engenharia Mecânica