„Nun sag, wie hast du’s mit der Messung im Labor?“ So oder ähnlich lautet die sich anhand dieser Arbeit ergebende Gretchenfrage bezüglich biomechanischer Auswertungen und Studien des Laufsports, welche unter Laborbedingungen durchgeführt werden. Hierbei wird angenommen, dass eine Messung im Labor eine valide experimentelle Operationalisierung des Ausdauerlaufens darstellt. Aufgrund der räumlichen Begrenzung kann lediglich eine vergleichsweise geringe Anzahl an einzelnen Versuchen aufgezeichnet werden. Für die statistische Auswertung werden dann zumeist einzelne Parameter der Zeitreihen berechnet, welche wiederum zusammengefasst durch Mittelwerte den Probanden repräsentieren müssen. Bei der Verwendung von diskreten Parametern reduziert sich die aufgenommene Information der Zeitreihe dabei erheblich. Damit einhergehend muss die Frage geklärt werden, ob die Variabilität eines Probanden anhand diskreter Werte oder anhand der gesamten Kurve Beachtung finden muss. Des Weiteren stellt sich die Frage inwieweit das arithmetische Mittel über eine große Anzahl an Versuchen als die den Probanden repräsentierende Kennzahl verwendet und dessen Variabilität mittels einer endlichen Anzahl an Wiederholungen charakterisiert werden kann. Für die Untersuchungen wurden zunächst zwei Studien durchgeführt, wobei die Aufzeichnung von Bodenreaktionskräften und der Winkelgeschwindigkeit bei 100 Läufen an je zwei Messtagen im Labor erfolgte. Die statistischen Auswertungen umfassen sowohl die Betrachtung der Konvergenz von Folgen kumulierter Mittelwerte, Standardabweichungen und Root Mean Square Errors für diskrete Parameter und die gesamten aufgezeichneten Signale der Bodenreaktionskräfte und Winkelgeschwindigkeit als auch die Untersuchung von Prädiktionsbändern. Zudem wurden unterschiedliche Algorithmen zur Bestimmung der minimalen Anzahl an aufzuzeichnenden Versuchen entwickelt. Diese beinhalten nichtlineare Regressionsmodelle für die Anpassung der kumulierten Fläche der Prädiktionsbänder gesamter Kurven und die Analyse der Differenzen aufeinanderfolgender Standardabweichungskurven. Zusammenfassend geht aus dieser Arbeit hervor, dass die postulierte ausreichende und stabile Charakterisierung eines Probanden anhand des arithmetischen Mittels sowie der vollständigen und soliden Beschreibung der Variabilität für diskrete Parameter nicht nachgewiesen werden konnte. Für gesamte Kurven ergab sich ein anderes Bild. Die Probanden konnten anhand der mittleren vertikalen Bodenreaktionskräfte sowie der Bodenreaktionskräfte in anterior-posterior Richtung stabil und ausreichend charakterisiert werden. Für die Bodenreaktionskräfte in mediolateraler Richtung und die Kurve der Winkelgeschwindigkeit wurde dies nicht bestätigt. Die Möglichkeit der Charakterisierung der Variabilität eines Probanden konnte zudem verifiziert werden. Durch Beibehaltung der ursprünglichen Messprozedur ist die Wahrscheinlichkeit sehr hoch, dass der begangene Fehler den Ausgang der statistischen Auswertung beeinflusst und damit Eigenschaften der vorliegenden Grundgesamtheit unter Umständen falsch widerspiegelt. Von einer Verwendung des Mittelwertes diskreter Parameter sollte daher abgesehen werden. Der Fehler sowie dessen unbekanntes Ausmaß sind zum Teil unkontrollierbar und dessen Auswirkungen auf weitere biomechanische Kenngrößen nicht überprüfbar. Die Annahme, dass eine Labormessung als valide experimentelle Operationalisierung des Ausdauerlaufens angesehen werden kann, ist damit hinfällig. Es ist zukünftig notwendig, die Erforschung neuer Aufnahme- und Auswerteprozeduren, die alternative Verwendung gesamter Kurven und die Entwicklung neuer Testverfahren zu forcieren.

Multilevel Random Pulse Width Modulation (RPWM) schemes have drawn increasing attention in the past few years. Multilevel topologies provide high voltage and high power capabilities and random PWM schemes offer reduction in discrete harmonics spectral. This dissertation provides a generalized theory and analysis methods of the standard five-level Weighted RPWM (WRPWM). Equations have been derived to analyze the spectral performance and average switching frequency of the WRPWM output waveform using statistical approach. A modified WRPWM scheme has been proposed. The modified WRPWM scheme is then analyzed with the equations derived from the same approach. The analyzed theoretical spectrum of the standard five-level WRPWM is then compared with the three-level WRPWM scheme and the conventional carrier based PWM scheme. A scaled laboratory prototype diode clamping five-level inverter has been built for verification of the standard and the proposed modified WRPWM schemes. It can be seen that the experimental measurements and the theoretical analyzed results are all in good agreement. Results show the two five-level WRPWM schemes offers significant improvements on the spectrum content than the conventional carrier based PWM scheme. It was found that the five-level WRPWM schemes have successfully suppress the magnitude of third harmonic below 5% of the magnitude of fundamental component and even less for the higher order harmonic components. Research contributions made by the dissertation are: - The proposed modified multilevel WRPWM scheme which utilizing the switching decision redundancy of multilevel inverter to manipulate the harmonic content of the output signal. - The derived mathematical equations of the standard and modified five-level WRPWM scheme for analytical purposes. / Dissertation (MEng (Electrical Engineering))--University of Pretoria, 2005. / Electrical, Electronic and Computer Engineering / unrestricted

In traditional investment decision making, one tool commonly used is the mean variance model, also known as an expected-value variance (EV) model, which evaluates the anticipated payout of different assets with respect to uncertainty where portfolios with higher risk demand higher expected returns from an individual. This thesis adapts this framework to a cost setting where decision makers are evaluating alternative physical assets that carry lifetime cost uncertainty for maintenance. Specifically, this paper examines homeowner choices for their home plumbing systems in the event of a pinhole leak, a tiny pin-sized hole that forms in copper, drinking-water pipes. These leaks can cause substantial damage and cost homeowners thousands of dollars in repairs. Since pinhole leaks are not related to the age of pipe material, a homeowner is subject to the risk of additional costs if a pinhole leak occurs again despite their repair efforts. The EV cost model in this paper defines two discrete choices for the homeowner in the event of a leak; to apply a simple repair at lower cost and higher future cost uncertainty, or to replace their plumbing with new pipe material, usually made of plastic, at a higher upfront cost but lower likelihood of future expenses. The risk preference of homeowners are demonstrated by their repair strategy selection, as well as the level of cost they incur to reduce uncertainty. Risk neutral individuals will select the repair strategy with the lowest lifetime expected cost and high variance, while risk averse homeowners will prefer to replace their plumbing with higher cost but lower variance. Risk averse individuals are also exposed to indirect costs, which is an additional unobserved cost in the form of a risk premium the homeowner is willing to pay to remove all uncertainty of future pinhole leak expense. Expected costs and variances are also higher for regions in the U.S. that experience elevated leak incident rates, known as hotspots. Using this mean variance cost framework, indirect cost can be quantified for homeowners in hotspot regions and compared to the rest of the U.S. to evaluate the magnitude of pinhole leak risk. The EV cost model estimates risk premiums on pinhole leaks to be $442 for homeowners in hotspots and $305 for those in the rest of the U.S. Finally, this paper examines the impact of pinhole leak cost uncertainty on the U.S. economy. Of an estimated $692 million in annual pinhole leak costs to homeowners, this study estimates a lower bound cost of $54 million per year (7.8% of estimated national annual cost) in risk premium that homeowners would be willing to pay to avoid pinhole leak cost uncertainty. Information in this study on the role of risk in home plumbing decisions and indirect costs would be helpful to policymakers and water utility managers as they deal with infrastructure management decisions. Furthermore, the EV cost methodology established in this paper demonstrates an effective use of mean variance modeling under cost uncertainty. / Master of Science / This paper examines homeowner choices for their home plumbing systems in the event of a pinhole leak, a tiny pin-sized hole that forms in copper, drinking-water pipes. These leaks can cause substantial damage and cost homeowners thousands of dollars in repairs. Since pinhole leaks are not related to the age of pipe material, a homeowner is subject to the risk of additional costs if a pinhole leak occurs again despite their repair efforts. This paper also examined costs in regions of the U.S. that experience elevated leak incident rates, known as hotspots. There were two primary choices assessed in this study for homeowners facing pinhole leaks: to either apply a simple repair today at lower cost but take on a higher chance of more pinhole leaks; or to replace their plumbing with new pipe material, usually made of plastic, at a higher overall cost but lower risk of another leak. Using a cost focused investment analysis, it was estimated that homeowners selecting the ‘safer’ replacement strategy would be willing to pay a minimum of $305 in additional cost if able to eliminate all possibility of another leak compared to those who opted for the more ‘riskier’ repair choice. Additionally, homeowners who live in hotspot regions who selected the replacement strategy were estimated to be willing to pay a minimum of $442 in additional cost to avoid pinhole leaks. At a national level, these pinhole leak-avoiding premiums equate to $54 million, about 7.8% of the estimated $692 million in costs spent on fixing pinhole leaks by U.S. homeowners each year. Information in this study on homeowner preferences and pinhole leak would be helpful to policymakers and water utility managers as they deal with infrastructure management decisions.

Multiobjective Stochastic Linear Programming is a relevant topic. As a matter of fact, many real life problems ranging from portfolio selection to water resource management may be cast into this framework. There are severe limitations in objectivity in this field due to the simultaneous presence of randomness and conflicting goals. In such a turbulent environment, the mainstay of rational choice does not hold and it is virtually impossible to provide a truly scientific foundation for an optimal decision. In this thesis, we resort to the bounded rationality and chance-constrained principles to define satisficing solutions for Multiobjective Stochastic Linear Programming problems. These solutions are then characterized for the cases of normal, exponential, chi-squared and gamma distributions. Ways for singling out such solutions are discussed and numerical examples provided for the sake of illustration. Extension to the case of fuzzy random coefficients is also carried out. / Decision Sciences

Multiobjective Stochastic Linear Programming is a relevant topic. As a matter of fact, many real life problems ranging from portfolio selection to water resource management may be cast into this framework. There are severe limitations in objectivity in this field due to the simultaneous presence of randomness and conflicting goals. In such a turbulent environment, the mainstay of rational choice does not hold and it is virtually impossible to provide a truly scientific foundation for an optimal decision. In this thesis, we resort to the bounded rationality and chance-constrained principles to define satisficing solutions for Multiobjective Stochastic Linear Programming problems. These solutions are then characterized for the cases of normal, exponential, chi-squared and gamma distributions. Ways for singling out such solutions are discussed and numerical examples provided for the sake of illustration. Extension to the case of fuzzy random coefficients is also carried out. / Decision Sciences

The purpose with this study is to show how the subjective uncertainty analysis can be applied to the cost estimates and examine how the attitudes towards risk budgeting of construction projects works. Biogas Mellannorrland is based on a case study and focuses on four location options for the biogas plant. For each option, a cost estimate in form of a fixed cost and variable cost elements, where the latter are uncertain. Pearson-Tukey method have been applied as a method to estimating subjective probabilities. An assumption is made so that the uncertain costs are normally distributed, where the parameters’ mean and standard deviation collected from respondents indicating percentiles at 5% and 95% for doubtful cost elements. In order to identify the project managers risk attitude, the risk premium method will be used to calculate where the expected value is produced by Pearson-Tukey method. The expected value is subtracted with certainty equivalent, which consist of the budgeted amount. The study was conducted through interviews in order to obtain the costs and the subjective probabilities. The study results show that it is difficult to determine which option is the best, or the worst, by just looking at the expected value. The risk premium shows that each option is a risk averse choice for the project managers, since the risk premium was greater than zero. / Denna studie syftar till att visa hur subjektiv osäkerhetsanalys kan tillämpas vid kostnadskalkyler samt undersöka riskattityder vid budgetering av byggprojekt. Undersökningen är en fallstudie vid Biogas Mellannorrland och fokuserar på fyra lokaliseringsalternativ för biogasanläggning. För varje alternativ görs en kostnadskalkyl i form av ett antal fasta och rörliga delkostnader, där de senare är osäkra. Som metod för att skatta subjektiva sannolikheter har Pearson-Tukey-metoden tillämpats. Ett antagande görs att osäkra kostnader är normalfördelade, där parametrarna väntevärde och standardavvikelse hämtas från respondenter som anger percentilerna vid 5 % och 95 % för osäkra delkostnader. För att identifiera projektledarnas riskattityd, kommer riskpremium att beräknas, där det förväntade värdet tas fram med Pearson-Tukey- metoden. Det förväntade värdet subtraheras med säkerhetsekvivalensen, vilket utgörs av det budgeterade beloppet. Studien har genomförts med hjälp av intervjuer för att få fram kostnader och subjektiva sannolikheter. Studiens resultat visar att det är svårt att avgöra vilka alternativ som är bäst eller sämst genom att bara titta på väntevärdet. Med riskpremium visar alla alternativ att projektledarna gör ett riskaversivt val, eftersom riskpremium blev större än noll.

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「風險決策」行為非常普遍的存在於吾人之日常生活中，而選項所帶來的風險和獎勵是吾人進行決策時的重要考量因素。風險選擇的適當與否，對於個體的生存扮演著相當重要的角色。在以往的文獻中，對於決策的行為歷程已有所關注及探討，但對於風險選擇行為的神經生理機制迄今未明。本研究藉由大白鼠於T字迷津中，選擇確定之低酬賞或高不確定性之高酬賞的行為表現，進行風險選擇行為的探討。本研究中以兩項主要實驗，探討風險選擇行為之神經行為機制。實驗1a中，確定之低酬賞端固定呈現1顆食物粒，而高不確定性之高酬賞端則同時操弄酬賞物機率(50%、25%及12.5%)以及酬賞物的量(2、4及8顆)，以系統性地檢驗期望值(0.5、1和2)於此風險選擇行為中扮演的角色。行為結果顯示當風險較低時，大白鼠會選擇高不確定性之高酬賞端；而風險較高時，則轉為選擇確定之低酬賞端。實驗1b中，系統性地施打不同劑量之安非他命，探討多巴胺系統在此風險選擇行為中之機制。實驗結果顯示施打安非他命後，大白鼠表現出相對地追求風險之行為，亦即選擇高不確定之高酬賞端之比例顯著高於控制組。實驗2中，藉由毀除大腦特定部位(依核、背外側之紋狀體、眶前額皮質、內側之前額皮質)，檢驗風險選擇行為之神經基礎。毀除後之結果顯示，僅有依核受到毀除之大白鼠表現出相對地趨避風險之選擇行為。綜合以上結果，本研究建立之風險選擇行為與多巴胺有關，而依核在此行為歷程中扮演重要的調節角色。 / Many decisions people make every day involve uncertainty where both risks and rewards associated with each option need to be considered. Behavioral performance associated to risk-based choice appears wildly over the lifespan, and the fitness of risky choice behavior plays an important role in individual survival. Despite a growing body of research has focused to investigate the neurobiology of decision making, little is known about the neurobehavioral mechanisms of risky choice behavior. Based on a pilot work, this study used a T-maze to study decision under a probability-based risk in the rat. The subject was assessed on making choice to obtain either a large reward associated with risk of non-reward “empty” or a small reward ensured for every entry. Two experiments were conducted in this project to investigate neurobehavioral mechanisms of probabilistic risky choice behavior. In Experiment 1a, probabilistic risky choice behavior was systemically assessed under three expected values (0.5, 1.0, and 2.0) by manipulating the probabilities of reward presence (50%, 25%, and 12.5%) and the reward magnitude (2, 4, or 8 pellets) in the probabilistic high reward (PHR) arm. Behavioral data showed that the subject chose the probabilistic high reward in a lower risk condition but would shift to the choice of certain low reward (CLR) as the risk is increased. In Experiment 1b, the dose effects of amphetamine on this probabilistic risky choice task was tested to verify whether the dopaminergic mechanism was involved. Amphetamine, presumably activating brain dopamine systems, produced a relatively risk-seeking effect on the present behavioral task. In Experiment 2, the excitoneurotoxic lesion was conducted in the nucleus accumbens, the dorsolateral striatum, the orbitofrontal cortex, and the medial prefrontal cortex to examine the neural substrates for this probabilistic risky choice behavior. The results showed that the lesion of the nucleus accumbens significantly produced a relatively risk-averse effect on the present behavioral task, as compared to the lesions made on the other three brain areas. In conclusion, the probabilistic risky choice behavior established in the present study is dopamine dependent. And, the nucleus accumbens plays a major role of mediating this behavioral processing.

This thesis is composed of two economic evaluations: one trial-based study and one model-based study. In a recent study published in Clinical Infectious Diseases in 2011, a team of OUCRU investigators found that immediate antiretroviral therapy (ART) was not associated with improved 9-month survival in HIV-associated TBM patients (HR, 1.12; 95% CI, .81 to–1.55; P = .50). An economic evaluation of this clinical trial was conducted to examine the cost-effectiveness of immediate ART (initiate ART within 1 week of study entry) versus deferred ART (initiate ART after 2 months of TB treatment) in HIV-associated TBM patients. Over 9 months, immediate ART was not different from deferred ART in terms of costs and QALYs gained. Late initiation of ART during TB and HIV treatment for HIV-positive TBM patients proved to be the most cost-effective strategy. Increasing resistance of Plasmodium falciparum malaria to artemisinin is posing a major threat to the global effort to eliminate malaria. Artesmisinin combination therapies (ACT) are currently known as the most efficacious first-line therapies to treat uncomplicated malaria. However, resistance to both artemisinin and partner drugs is developing and this could result in increasing morbidity, mortality, and economic costs. One strategy advocated for delaying the development of resistance to the ACTs is the wide-scale deployment of multiple first-line therapies. A previous modeling study examined that the use of multiple first-line therapies (MFT) reduced the long-term treatment failures compared with strategies in which a single first-line ACT was recommended. Motivated by observed results of the published modelling study in the Lancet, the cost-effectiveness of the MFT versus the single first-line therapies was assessed in settings of different transmission intensities, treatment coverages and fitness cost of resistance using a previously developed model of the dynamics of malaria and a literature –based cost estimate of changing antimalarial drug policy at national level. This study demonstrates that the MFT strategies outperform the single first-line strategies in terms of costs and benefits across the wide range of epidemiological and economic scenarios considered. The second analysis of the thesis is not only internationally relevant but also with a focus towards healthcare practice in Vietnam. These two studies add significant new cost-effectiveness evidence in Vietnam. This thesis presents the first trial-based economic evaluation in Vietnam considers patient-health outcome measures as the participants have cognitive limitations (tuberculous meningitis), dealing with missing data along with the potential ways to handle this common problem by the use of multiple imputation, and the issues of censored costs data. Having identified these issues would support the decision makers or stakeholders including the pharmaceutical industry to devise a new guideline on how to implement a well-design trial-based economic evaluation in Vietnam in the future. Another novelty of this thesis is the introduction of the detailed of costing of drug regimens change in which the economic evaluations considering the drug policy change often do not include. This cost could be substantial to the healthcare system for retraining the staff and publishing the new guidelines. This thesis will document the costs incurred by the Vietnamese government by changing the first-line treatment of malaria, from single first-line therapy (ACT) to multiple first-line therapies.

In the master thesis are explained terms related to public contract. The greatest attention is devoted the various types of qualification assumptions. The main objective is to compare qualification requirements of public works contracts in the field of water management structures. The analysis was performed on four specific public contracts, with an analysis of the differences between them were found. Public contract, open procedure, simplified sub-limit management, qualification, qualification requirements, the sponsor, the expected value, the law on public contracts.