Orientador: Daniela Magalhães Prates / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-27T05:19:07Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Barone_RicardoStrazzacappa_M.pdf: 1339791 bytes, checksum: 9c7ac9e05a963ba068d8b203475c9721 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015 / Resumo: Esta dissertação tem por objetivo apresentar os principais argumentos da abordagem econômica mainstream acerca das raízes da crise financeira estadunidense de 2007/2008, bem como as principais críticas a ela endereçadas pelas abordagens alternativas. Argumenta-se que a abordagem mainstream oferece um conjunto de explicações que desviam a atenção dos fatores históricos, monetários e financeiros que realmente poderiam contribuir para o entendimento das origens da crise em questão. Para tanto, os argumentos da abordagem mainstream são apresentados segundo duas vertentes, a saber: uma vertente classificada como hard-core, que contempla questões vinculadas às falhas de governo, e outra vertente classificada como soft-core, relacionada às falhas de mercado e aos desequilíbrios internacionais. Procura-se, a partir da articulação das críticas à abordagem mainstream, desenvolver uma interpretação que tem como ponto central a emergência de um novo padrão sistêmico de riqueza capitalista: a financeirização. Esse novo padrão, entendido como uma forma específica pela qual se faz a definição, gestão e realização da riqueza, passa a condicionar o comportamento das famílias, das empresas, das instituições financeiras e dos governos segundo princípios de uma lógica financeira geral que define o modo de ser do capitalismo contemporâneo / Abstract: The aim of this MA dissertation is to present the key arguments of the mainstream economical approach concerning the origins of the US financial crisis of 2007/2008, as well as the principal criticisms put forward by alternative views. It is argued that the mainstream approach offers a range of explanations that overlooks important historical, monetary and financial factors, which, however, could help shedding light on the actual origins of the crisis. The analysis of the mainstream arguments is structured into two main groups: the first is known as the `hard-core¿ and deals with issues concerning government errors; the second is the so-called `soft-core¿ and focuses on both market errors and international phases of disequilibrium. Through an assessment of the principal criticisms to the mainstream approach, this dissertation offers an interpretation of the crisis which is based on the idea of the emergence of a new systemic pattern of capitalistic wealth, namely, the financialization. Understood as a specific form by which wealth is defined, managed and produced, this new pattern comes to determine the behaviour of families, businesses, financial and governmental institutions according to the principles of a comprehensive financial logic that shapes the contemporary capitalism / Mestrado / Teoria Economica / Mestre em Ciências Econômicas

Thesis advisor: Fabio Schiantarelli / Thesis advisor: Zhijie Xiao / This dissertation consists of three essays in macroeconomics and finance. The first and second chapters analyze the impact of the financial shocks and anti-corruption campaign on Chinese firms through the bank lending channel. The third chapter provides a new method to predict the cash flow from operations (CFO) via semi-parametric estimation and machine learning. The first chapter explores the impact of the financial crisis and sovereign debt crisis on Chinese firms through the bank lending channel and firm borrowing channel. Using new data linking Chinese firms to their bank(s) and four different measurements of exposure to the international markets (international borrowing, importance of lending to foreign listed companies, share of trade settlement, and exchange/income), I find that banks with higher exposure to the international markets cut lending more during the recent financial crisis. In addition, state-owned bank loans are more pro-cyclical compared with private bank loans. Moreover, banks with higher exposure to the international markets cut lending more when there is a negative shock in OECD GDP growth. With regard to firm borrowing channel, I find that firms with higher weighted aggregate exposure to the international markets through banks have lower net debt, cash, employment, and capital investment during the financial crisis. Firms with higher weighted aggregate exposure to the global markets have higher net debt and lower cash, employment, and capital investment when there is a negative shock in OECD GDP growth. This paper also provides a theoretical model to explain the mechanism in a partially opened economy like China. The second chapter discusses the impact of the anti-corruption campaign on Chinese firms through the bank lending channel. Using confidential data linking Chinese firms to their bank(s) and prefecture-level corruption index, I find that banks located in more corrupted prefectures offer significantly less credits before the anti-corruption investigation, and this effect changes the direction after the investigation. Moreover, banks located in more corrupted prefectures tend to use higher interest rates, longer maturity, and more collateral before the campaign, all of these effects change the direction after the campaign. This paper suggests that the banks located in more corrupted prefectures have stronger monopoly power (or higher markup, and lower efficiency). This monopoly effect could be proved by that the bank concentration ratio is higher, and the bad loans of the banks are higher in the more corrupted areas, and all of these effects disappear after the campaign. The third chapter considers the methods of prediction of Cash flow from operations (CFO). Forecasting CFO is an essential topic in financial econometrics and empirical accounting. It impacts a variety of economic decisions, including valuation methodologies employing discounted cash flows, distress prediction, risk assessment, the accuracy of credit-rating predictions, and the provision of value-relevant information to security markets. Existing literature on statistically-based cash-flow prediction has pursued cross-sectional versus time-series estimation procedures in a mutually exclusive fashion. Cumulated empirical evidence indicates that the beta value varies across firms of different sizes, and the cross-sectional regression can not capture an idiosyncratic beta. However, although a time series based predictive model has the advantage of allowing for firm-specific variability in beta, it requires a long enough time series data. In this paper, we extend the literature on statistically-based, cash-flow prediction models by introducing an estimation procedure that, in essence, combine the favorable attributes of both cross-sectional estimation via the use of "local" cross-sectional data for firms of similar size and time-series estimation via the capturing of firm-specific variability in the beta parameters for the independent variables. The local learning approach assumes no a priori knowledge on the constancy of the beta coefficient. It allows the information about coefficients to be represented by only a subset of observations. This feature is particularly relevant in the CFO model, where the beta values are only related to cross-sectional data information that is "local" to its size. We provide empirical evidence that the prediction of cash flows from operations is enhanced by jointly adopting features specific to both cross-sectional and time-series modeling simultaneously. / Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2020. / Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Economics.

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(経済学) / 甲第22682号 / 経博第618号 / 新制||経||293(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院経済学研究科経済学専攻 / (主査)教授 柴田 章久, 准教授 高橋 修平, 教授 佐々木 啓明, 教授 敦賀 貴之(大阪大学) / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Economics / Kyoto University / DGAM

Investors herd when they follow the investment decisions of other market participants and ignore their own private information, causing asset valuations to deviate from their fundamentals. This paper examines herding in the South African equity market by examining the impact of investor fear on herding behavior, using a survivorship-bias free daily dataset of companies within the JSE All Share Index over the period: 3 May 2002 to 31 December 2019. Using the cross-sectional absolute deviation (CSAD), this study examines market-wide herding behavior over multiple sub-periods, which consists of before, during and after the global financial crisis of 2007/08. The results suggest no evidence of herding towards the market return; on the contrary there is evidence of ‘anti-herding' behaviour during periods of market stress. However, there is significant herding towards the domestic fear index, which becomes more pronounced during the crisis period. Furthermore, investor herd behaviour appears to be sensitive to spill-over effects from the US investor fear-gauge, suggesting interconnectedness with global financial markets. Therefore, these findings suggest that fear plays an important role in enforcing irrational behaviour.

This essay is an analytical study that examines the ideological features of the New Right, that has governed Britain and the United States after the 2008 financial crisis, regarding globalization. The purpose of the essay is to identify the most prominent similarities and differences in the positions of the New Right on globalization in both countries after 2008. The essay shows that the New Right differs, in Britain and the United States, in its position on globalization. In Britain, successive Conservative governments support globalization with its economic, political, cultural and ecological dimensions, but with conditions. On the other hand, Trump, the only Republican president in the United States after 2008, does not support globalization in any of its dimensions. However, there are similarities between the two doctrines on issues related to the assertion of sovereignty and national identity.

The research will compare the alignment of the remuneration between United States and South African banks with respect to the Economic Value Added, a measure of a firm's economic profit that adjusts profit by subtracting the cost of capital.South African banks have been widely recognised for their high standard of corporate governance and stability during the financial crisis. Executive remuneration based on short-term equity has been recognised by both academic literature as well as bank regulators as one of the causes of the financial crisis. The research seeks to understand the differences in remuneration alignment between the failed and surviving banks.Misaligned incentives within the United States banks are accepted by both academics and regulators as one of the causes of the 2008 financial crisis and subsequent economic downturn. This research puts this theory to the test by comparing the alignment of executive remuneration between South African banks that were internationally recognised for successfully navigating the financial crisis, and the largest United States banks, of which three failed catastrophically over the same time period.The remuneration for the largest United States and South African banks is tested for correlation against Economic Value Added (EVA®), share price and return on equity. Correlation between executive remuneration and the constructs is tested between the two countries before as well as after the financial crisis.South African bank executive remuneration correlated strongly with EVA® and this correlation strengthened after the financial crisis. In comparison, the United States sample banks exhibited strong correlation between share price and remuneration before the financial crisis. The failed United States banks had no correlations between executive remuneration any of the constructs, a pattern that has been repeated in the United States Banks that have survived the financial crisis.Practically, the research demonstrated the vast differences in executive remuneration alignment between the United States and South Africa. In South African banks, executive remuneration is far more closely aligned to EVA®, whereas the United States banks only correlated with share price before the financial crisis, raising the question of whether managers are able to exert excessive power. The research demonstrates the magnitude of the gap between the recommendations of regulators and remuneration policies, with South African banks far more closely aligned than their United States counterparts.The research findings concur with theory presented in literature that misaligned incentives based on equity contributed towards the financial crisis. Of particular concern is the change in remuneration correlation after the financial crisis, where South African banks increased correlation with EVA® while United States banks no longer correlated with EVA®, ROE or share price. / Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2012. / Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) / unrestricted

Everywhere around the world, whether in developing or developed countries, women earn less than men. This phenomenon is in no way new and it has been investigated for many years. Still, in today’s modern society, the wage gap does not appear to be closing. In times of economic instability, such as the economic crisis, the progress towards equality may be pushed back, since specific groups, sectors, and occupations may be affected differently. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate the Italian gender wage gap with a closer look at the fluctuations during the period of the financial crisis. In order to analyse and understand the fluctuations of the pay gap, the three main theories used in the research are the human capital theory, occupational segregation, and theories regarding the labour market structure. By applying the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition method, this study analyses to what extent the gap could be explained by differences in observable characteristics, such as level of education or age, and how much remains unexplained. The empirical model is applied to the Italian Survey of Household Income and Wealth (SHIW) microdata between the period of 2002 and 2016. The main findings show that the Italian gender wage gap, for the most part, remains unexplained. This indicates that the differentials in pay cannot be accounted for by differences in observable characteristics, such as education, age, contract type. The results of this research show that the Italian wage gap was, to some extent, negatively affected by the financial crisis. Furthermore, implemented austerity measures were found not to have significant negative impacts on the gap, which only increased in the initial phase of the crisis.

This thesis has identified a gap in literature regarding the effects of quantitative easing (QE) on equities since the financial crisis in 2008. An event study has been conducted to investigate the portfolio rebalance effect stating that assets not regarded as close substitutes to targeted assets under the QE-scheme, e.g. equities, should respond with a lag to new information regarding QE. Also literature suggests that larger stocks should tend to lead smaller stocks. Assuming investors regard larger stocks as safer we aim to test the hypotheses that stocks will respond to QEannouncements containing new, unanticipated information and that larger, safer stocks will lead smaller, more volatile. The responses in the U.S. stock indices S&P 500, its corresponding sectors as well as mid and small cap indices are examined on nine identified events. Results show that stocks respond immediately on the day of a QE-announcement, but also that returns continue to increase the following days after. Also smaller, more volatile stocks have larger average abnormal returns compare to larger, less volatile stocks.

Credit derivative has become an important financial instrument in global financial market, it plays significant role in transferring credit risk. During the latest financial crisis, collapse of credit derivative market was a main reason led to this worldwide turmoil. In this thesis, I try to investigate this adverse performance through a case study of Goldman Sach's ABACUS 2007-AC1. I conclude three major findings. First, severe interest conflicts and asymmetric information existed between counterparties in credit derivative market in U.S.. Second, the securities‘ credit ratings provided a downward-biased view of their actual default risks, the yields failed to account for the extreme exposure of structured products to declines in aggregate economic conditions. Third, credit derivatives do not eliminate systematic risk, they just shift the risk, CDOs exchanged diversifiable risk for systematic risk during the structuring process, which was difficult to understand for most of investors, we see risk accumulation rather than spreading risk,

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to analyze the profitability performance of Islamic banks (IBs) of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region during 2008 global financial crisis. Design/methodology/approach: Bank-specific data are taken from the Bank Scope database and macroeconomic data are collected from International Financial Statistics. Using a panel data series of 30 banks for the period of 2005 to 2011, the study shows the evidence of structural break for the crisis year as well as the factors that impact the profitability of IBs. Findings: The performance of GCC IBs was significantly influenced during the crisis period by capital adequacy, credit risk, financial risk, operational efficiency, liquidity, bank size, gross domestic product, growth rate of money supply, bank sector development and inflation rate. The study also finds that there is a structural change before and after the global financial crisis. Originality/value: This is an original study that shows that the Sharīʿah-compliant banks have performed better during the crisis and are not affected based on their internal performance records; rather, they have been affected indirectly from the macro shock owing to the overall economic crisis.