Com o crescente debate a respeito da contribuição do homem nas emissões de gases causadores do efeito estufa, além da pressão da sociedade por um comprometimento maior das lideranças mundiais com políticas de mitigação dos efeitos das mudanças climáticas, faz-se necessário estudar os efeitos que a adoção de políticas climáticas pelos países do chamado Anexo I (desenvolvidos) e pelos que pertencem ao Não-Anexo I (em desenvolvimento) podem ter sobre a economia brasileira. Também é importante analisar como se daria este impacto em um contexto onde o Brasil adotaria políticas de mitigação dos efeitos das mudanças climáticas, principalmente pelo fato do país ser responsável por uma parcela considerável de gases causadores do efeito estufa, devido às atividades relacionadas às mudanças no uso da terra, agricultura e pecuária, bem como pela crescente pressão para um compromisso mundial de esforço de redução de emissões. O presente trabalho buscou estimar cenários para o Brasil, levando-se em consideração políticas ambientais domésticas e internacionais já discutidas ou em aplicação pelos países desenvolvidos, e assim, verificar quais os impactos sobre as economias em termos de bem-estar e produto. / With the growing debate about the contribution of human emissions of greenhouse gases, along with pressure from society for a greater commitment of world leaders with policies to mitigate the effects of climate change, it is necessary to study the effects that adoption of climate policies by the countries of the so-called Annex I (developed) and those who belong to non-Annex I (developing) may have on the Brazilian economy. It is also important to analyze how this impact would occur in a context where Brazil would adopt policies to mitigate the effects of climate change, mainly because the country is responsible for a significant portion of greenhouse gas emissions due to activities related to changes in land use, agriculture and livestock, as well as the increasing pressure for a global commitment to emissions reduction effort. The present study sought to estimate scenarios for Brazil, taking into account domestic and international environmental policies already discussed or implemented by developed countries, and thus determine the impacts on the economies in terms of welfare and product.

Submitted by Renata Lopes (renatasil82@gmail.com) on 2017-05-25T19:30:14Z No. of bitstreams: 1 marciliozanellipereira.pdf: 2774067 bytes, checksum: fb7bfb9e35ac73406eceef3f7a0801e3 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Adriana Oliveira (adriana.oliveira@ufjf.edu.br) on 2017-05-26T13:09:29Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 marciliozanellipereira.pdf: 2774067 bytes, checksum: fb7bfb9e35ac73406eceef3f7a0801e3 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-05-26T13:09:29Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 marciliozanellipereira.pdf: 2774067 bytes, checksum: fb7bfb9e35ac73406eceef3f7a0801e3 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-02-23 / Tem-se observado na economia mundial mudanças demográficas que estão afetando direta e∕ou indiretamente toda a economia. No Brasil, conforme dados da ONU (2015), a população com mais de 65 anos representa, em 2015, 7,8% da população total e a previsão é que em 2030 este valor chegue a 13,5%. Além desse fato, outra questão pertinente refere-se ao aumento de trabalhadores estrangeiros no Brasil. Conforme dados da Coordenação Geral de Imigração (2015) houve um crescimento de 280% das autorizações de trabalho dadas aos estrangeiros na década de 2010. Com esse crescimento de imigrantes no país, o acréscimo relativo da população idosa e queda da população jovem, a hipótese levantada é a de que ocorram efeitos no mercado de trabalho. Para captar essas mudanças na economia, utilizou de um modelo de equilíbrio geral computável, o qual pôde captar os impactos setoriais que as alterações demográficas e inserção de estrangeiros causaram no mercado de trabalho brasileiro. Para isso, o primeiro passo consistiu em subdividir o fator trabalho em 3 níveis de qualificação (baixa, média e alta) e quatro faixas etárias (jovem, adulto, maduro e idoso) com o intuito de calcular a elasticidade de substituição dos trabalhadores brasileiros em 62 setores utilizando a metodologia econométrica proposta por Das (2003). Como primeiro resultado pôde perceber que os trabalhadores apresentam graus diferentes de substituição, para os diferentes setores, escolaridade e faixa etária. De uma forma geral, observou-se que os trabalhadores jovens possuem a menor elasticidade de substituição, enquanto os maduros obtiveram as maiores elasticidades. Esses resultados mostram a maior vulnerabilidade dos trabalhadores da faixa etária maduro de serem substituídos por outras faixas etárias. Além disso, o resultado ressalta que há uma substitubilidade imperfeita entre os trabalhadores e que a transição demográfica tende a aprofundar esse efeito com o decorrer dos anos. Após o modelo MID-BR (Mercado de Trabalho Imigração-Demografia-Brasil) estar calibrado, foi possível realizar simulações com o intuito de captar os efeitos que a transição demográfica e a inserção de imigrantes provocam na economia nacional. Como principais resultados das simulações, foi observado que o incremento de trabalhadores brasileiros com maior escolaridade têm maior capacidade de afetar positivamente o produto nacional e que o setor de Fabricação de Automóveis, caminhões etc é o mais dinâmico da economia. A entrada de estrangeiros no país impacta positivamente o PIB real brasileiro, porém os nativos de maior escolaridade apresentaram quedas salariais. Usando dados das previsões da população economicamente ativa da ILO Labour Statistics databases (LABORSTA, 2011), foi feita uma simulação para captar o efeito da transição demográfica da década de 2010. Foi observado efeito negativo no PIB real devido à nova estrutura etária dos trabalhadores e que as faixas etárias jovens e adultos obtiveram ganhos salariais, enquanto os maduros e idosos registraram quedas. / Demographic changes are affecting direct and/or indirectly the world economy. In Brazil, according to the United Nations (2015) data, the population over 65 years old represented 7.8% of the total population in 2015, and the forecast is that by the year 2030 this frame will reach 13.5%. Besides, another question to consider refers to the increase of foreign workers in Brazil. According to the General Coordination of Immigration (Coordenação Geral de Imigração, 2015), in 2010 decade there were an increase of 280% in work permits to foreign. With this growth of immigrants in the country, in addition to the relative increase in the elderly population and fall of the young population, the hypothesis is that an impact occur in the labor market. To capture these changes in the economy, a computable general equilibrium model will be used, which will allow us to capture the sectoral impacts that demographic changes and increase of immigrants causes in the Brazilian labor market. To do so, the first step was to divide the work force in three skill levels (low, medium and high) and four age groups (young, adult, mature and old) in order to calculate the elasticity of substitution of workers in 62 sectors of the Brazilian economy using the econometric methodology proposed by Das (2003). The first results indicate that workers have varying degrees of substitution, according to different sectors, education and age. In general, the lowest values of the elasticity of substitution belonged to the younger workers while the highest values belonged to the mature ones. This result indicate that mature workers are more replaceable by other age groups. Furthermore, the results indicate imperfect substitutability between workers and that the demographic transition tend to deepen this effect over the years to come. After the calibration of MID-BR (Labour market- Immigration-Demography- Brazil) model, it was possible to simulate the effects of the demographic transition and the entrance of immigrants in the national economy. As simulations’ main results, the increase of more educated workers affects more positively the national product and the sector of Manufacture of automobiles, trucks etc is the most dynamic in the Brazilian economy. The entrance of foreigners in the country positively affects the Brazilian real GDP, however, it decreases the wages of the more educated natives. Using data of the predicted economically active population from ILO Labour Statistics databases (LABORSTA, 2011), a simulation was made to capture the effects of the demographic transition on the 2010 decade. There was a negative effect on real GDP caused by workers new age structure, additionally young and adult age groups had higher wages while mature and elderly presented lower ones.

Submitted by Geandra Rodrigues (geandrar@gmail.com) on 2018-03-23T11:39:53Z No. of bitstreams: 1 marianarezendeesilva.pdf: 2448635 bytes, checksum: 7a91fde9d65f686013a08919648c2f64 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Adriana Oliveira (adriana.oliveira@ufjf.edu.br) on 2018-03-23T12:17:35Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 marianarezendeesilva.pdf: 2448635 bytes, checksum: 7a91fde9d65f686013a08919648c2f64 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-03-23T12:17:35Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 marianarezendeesilva.pdf: 2448635 bytes, checksum: 7a91fde9d65f686013a08919648c2f64 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-12-18 / O agravamento dos efeitos do aquecimento global, a volatilidade do preço do petróleo e a preocupação com a segurança energética são questões que contribuem para o aumento dos incentivos para a produção de biocombustíveis e o desenvolvimento de políticas relacionadas. A partir dos anos 2000 regiões como dos Estados Unidos e União Europeia lançaram os mandatos de biocombustíveis, políticas que estabelecem metas de consumo e produção de combustíveis renováveis até o ano de 2020. O crescimento da demanda interna não é acompanhado de um crescimento na oferta interna, precisando assim, importar etanol ou biodiesel. É nesse cenário que surge o Brasil como possível provedor de etanol para essas regiões por conta da disponibilidade de terras para a expansão do cultivo da cana-de-açúcar, a alta produtividade dessa commodity e o conhecimento da tecnologia de produção. O principal objetivo dessa dissertação é analisar o papel do Brasil no mercado mundial de biocombustíveis e identificar as implicações causadas pelas políticas de combustíveis renováveis de regiões como Estados Unidos e União Europeia. Para esse fim, foi construído um modelo de Equilíbrio Geral Computável a partir do Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), denominado GTAP-BIOBR. Nesse modelo estão desagregados os setores de biocombustíveis o que favorece a análise do comércio de etanol da cana, que tem como principal produtor o Brasil. A estratégia de análise empregada foi de simular três cenários com choques nas exportações brasileiras de etanol para os Estados Unidos e União Europeia no ano de 2020. Os resultados revelam que a produção de etanol no Brasil cresceria em todas as situações, acompanhado do crescimento do nível de atividade econômica. Por outro lado, o preço do etanol da cana sofreria uma queda e ocorreria perda de bem-estar econômico no país em consequência da piora dos termos de troca. / The worsening effects of global warming, the volatility of oil prices and the concern about energy security are issues that contribute to increasing incentives for the production of biofuels and the development of related policies. Since the 2000’s, regions such as the United States and the European Union have launched the biofuel mandates, policies that set targets for consumption and production of renewable fuels by the year 2020. The growth of domestic demand is not accompanied by a growth in domestic supply, thus needing to import ethanol or biodiesel. It is in this scenario that Brazil emerges as a possible supplier of ethanol to these regions because of the availability of land for the expansion of sugar cane cultivation the high productivity of this commodity and the knowledge of production technology. The main objective of this dissertation is to analyze the role of Brazil in the world biofuels market and to identify the implications caused by the renewable fuel policies of regions such as the United States and the European Union. For this purpose, a Computable General Equilibrium model was constructed from the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) called GTAP-BIOBR. In this model, the biofuels sectors are disaggregated, which favors the analysis of the sugarcane ethanol trade, whose main producer is Brazil. The analysis strategy employed was to simulate three scenarios with shocks in Brazilian ethanol exports to the United States and the European Union in the year 2020. The results show that ethanol production in Brazil would increase in all situations, accompanied by the growth of the level of economic activity. On the other hand, the price of sugarcane ethanol would suffer a fall and there would be a loss of economic welfare in the country as a result of the worsening terms of trade.

本篇文章的目的為，在一個含有銀行信用管道以及兩種家計單位設定的動態隨機一般均衡模型的架構之中，探討中央銀行實施貨幣政策以及技術面衝擊對於貧富不均度的影響。本篇文章主要依據Kumhof, Rancière and Winant (2015)對於兩種家計單位之設定，參考Benigo and Eggertsson (2016)加入銀行信用管道，並參考Lansing and Markiewicz (2016)將勞動內生化以及刻劃收入來源之不同，因而建構出一個封閉經濟體系，內含兩種不同的家計單位、商品生產部門、銀行信用管道、政府之課稅政策以及中央銀行之貨幣政策。本文發現，貧富不均度在面對中央銀行實施緊縮性貨幣政策以及技術面正向衝擊時會暫時性地擴大，在長期時會回到初始的靜態均衡值。 / The main purpose of this paper is to discuss the effect of monetary policy on income inequality using a micro-based dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with credit channel and two groups of households. Following Kumhof, Rancière and Winant (2015), households can be divided into two groups; moreover, we follow Benigo and Eggertsson (2016) to add the credit channel, and follow Lansing and Markiewicz (2016) to make households supply labor endogenously and characterize the difference of income source. Therefore, we build up a closed economy model with two groups of households, goods firms, credit channel, the taxation policy implemented by government and monetary policy implemented by central bank. We find that contractionary monetary policy and positive technology shock will temporarily generate a worse income inequality. In the long term, the economy will be back to the initial steady state.

Le Burkina Faso, avec plus de 20% de la population souffrant de sous-alimentation (FAO) est confronté à une forte insécurité alimentaire à l'instar d'autres pays d'Afrique subsaharienne. Ce pays a mis en place, depuis son accession à l'indépendance en 1960, des politiques contrastées, d'abord interventionnistes au lendemain de l'indépendance, puis libérales depuis les années 90 dans le cadre des programmes d'ajustement structurels avec le Fonds Monétaire International (FMI) et la Banque Mondiale. Différentes stratégies de lutte contre la pauvreté ont été mises en place depuis les années 2000 : des Cadres Stratégiques de Lutte Contre la Pauvreté entre 2000 et 2010 (CSLP) ont précédé à une Stratégie de Croissance Accélérée et de Développement Durable (SCADD) depuis 2011. Mais les résultats sont restés très mitigés en termes de réduction de la pauvreté et de l'insécurité alimentaire. Cette thèse tente d'analyser les dynamiques à l'œuvre expliquant la faiblesse des progrès au niveau des indicateurs sociaux, notamment la pauvreté et la sécurité en dépit des performances macroéconomiques enregistrées depuis quelques décennies. Un modèle d'Équilibre Général Calculable (EGC) est utilisé et calibré sur les grandes tendances de l'économie burkinabè. Il sert ainsi, d'une part, à analyser les mécanismes explicatifs à l'œuvre, et d'autre part, à tester deux types de scénarios, le premier supposant une dégradation de la productivité agricole qui découlerait d'une dégradation des ressources naturelles et du changement climatique, mis en évidence dans la littérature. Le second teste un vaste programme d'investissement public dans l'agriculture. Les résultats montrent que la dynamique actuelle est conforme aux analyses en termes de trappe à pauvreté : les contraintes naturelles (faible dotation en ressources naturelles) et la forte croissance démographique, renforcées par la faiblesse des biens publics se traduisent par une faible productivité du travail et donc des revenus et une épargne faibles impliquant peu d'investissement à l'origine de la faiblesse de la productivité du travail. La dégradation de la productivité agricole augmente considérablement l'insécurité alimentaire des pauvres et diminue fortement la croissance économique globale tandis que des investissements publics efficaces dans l'agriculture peuvent permettre des progrès importants et rapides et résoudre le dilemme de la politique agricole : ils sont bénéfiques aux ruraux et encore plus aux urbains pauvres. / Burkina Faso, with more than 20% of the population suffering from undernourishment (FAO), is facing severe food insecurity like other sub-Saharan African countries (FAO). This country has implemented, since its independence in 1960, contrasting policies, initially interventionist policies in the aftermath of independence, and then liberal policies since the 90s as part of structural adjustment programs with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. Different strategies against poverty have been implemented since the 2000s: Poverty Reduction Strategy Plans (PRSP), from 2000 to 2010, preceded a Strategy for Accelerated Growth and Sustainable Development (SAGSD) since 2011. But the results remained much mitigated in terms of poverty and food insecurity reduction. This thesis attempts to analyze the dynamics at work behind the weak progress in social indicators, including poverty and food security, despite macroeconomic performance recorded in recent decades. A Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGE) is used and calibrated on the major trends of Burkina Faso economy. It serves thus, on the one hand, to analyze explanatory mechanisms at work, and on the other hand to test two types of scenarios, the first assuming a decline in agricultural productivity that would result from a degradation of natural resources and climate change as highlighted in the literature. The second tests a large program of public investment in agriculture. The results show that the current dynamics can be analyzed in terms of poverty trap: natural constraints (poor endowment in natural resources) and high population growth, reinforced by weak public goods result in low labor productivity causing low revenue, low savings and then low investments behind the low labor productivity. A degradation of agricultural productivity significantly increases food insecurity of the poor and greatly reduces overall economic growth, while efficient public investment in agriculture can provide significant and rapid progress and solve the dilemma of agricultural policy: they are beneficial to rural and much more to urban poor populations.

Previous literature examining the scenario without the constraint of legal tender law is a rather theoretical analysis of the subject matter. Aside from the theoretical examination of the competition of money this paper offers dynamic structural macroeconomic model based on the money in the utility function. This model compares the current monetary conditions with the potential situation permitting more currencies circulating alongside. The main assumption about individuals' preferences over stable currencies underlines the whole paper with emphasis on the mathematical model. The uniqueness of this model lies in the incorporation of variables affecting respective money demand functions into the utility function of the DSGE model and in the purpose of its use as well as its variables, where representative agent is a household owning a bank rather than a firm. Overall the results of this paper favor the idea of exclusion of the legal tender law in a developed country without severe turmoil. Particularly, the ascent of competition among currencies leads to lower inflation than present scenario. However, final simulations of the model in Matlab supplements such so far "unambiguous" view with skepticism due to possible difficulties during discovery process in such scenario.

At the beginning of the year 2014 carbon tax should be introduced in Czech Republic with the main focus on decreasing CO2 emission from firms not involved in EU ETS. Potential repercussions of this regulatory tool depend on multiple complex events occurring within the economy. In response a macroeconomic general equilibrium model with the base year of 2009 was created. This model is able to identify complex events within the economy and simulate initiation of the tax itself. As a result of this model there is a conclusion that not all sectors will decrease their demand for newly taxed fossil fuels and that an increase of consumption for relatively less taxed fuels for instance natural gas might be expected as a result of the tax initiation. Carbon tax will be according to the simulation results indirectly but significantly influencing the energy sector, which will in spite of the relative cut-price of input fuels respond with decrease in electricity production. Consequent higher electricity price will then cause additional costs for taxed sectors. Important conclusion is also the fact that rational behavior of economic agents could lead to a lower emission reduction than is currently being expected and even further increase in the tax rate beyond 15 EUR/tCO2 would probably not lead to a significant reduction of CO2 emissions.

Dans le présent travail de recherche, nous proposons d’analyser principalement l’effet direct et indirect du changement climatique sur la production agricole et la croissance économique. Pour ce faire, la voie méthodologique retenue dans cette thèse est une voie empirique, s’appuyant à la fois sur l’économétrie spatiale, la technique de cointégration sur données de panel ainsi que le modèle d’équilibre général dynamique multisectoriel / The aim of this research is to analysis both direct and indirect effect of the climate change on the agricultural production and the economic growth. This PhD research we will be based on an empirical methodology, through applying a spacial econometrics and the cointegration technique of a panel data as well as a multisectoral general equilibrium growth model. The first part is devoted to find the effect of the climate change on the agricultural production in a macro spatial level during the period 1980-2012. The main gaol of this first chapter of this PhD is to determine the direct and indirect effect of the weather forecast and the temperature changes in one region compared to the neighbouring regions. The originality of this spacial modelisation is to give an effective spacial effect. The second part of this research is aimed to use a micro spacial analysis to find out the effect of the climate change on the agricultural production in the long term way and for each region rather then all of them together as in the first chapter. In the last part of this PhD research we developed a general and dynamic equilibrium model for the Tunisian economy taking in a count eventual climate change forcast from 2015 to 2030. Aiming to calculate the effect of this change on the agricultural production and the economic aggregate in Tunisa. The resulats show that the climate change forecast in the futur will affect the agricultural production in Tunisia in both the short run and the long term and this is because of the irrigated and non irrigated plantations. The decrease of the production will affect the food industry which will decrease the level of the investment, the employment in this sector as well as the consumption.

<div>This thesis has three major chapters. Structural estimation of non-homothetic demands is the element that is the most common across the three papers in which structural parameters from the data.<br></div><div><br></div><div><b>First Chapter</b>: Preference structures in applied general equilibrium models are commonly in favor of the family of linear expenditure system (LES) due to the desire for global regularity and applicability, while other emerging preference functions include the constant-elasticity-of-substitution (CES) forms that are used as sub-utility functions to fulfil regularity conditions with additional flexibilities. Hanoch (1975) introduces indirect, implicit additive relationships—a generalization of the CES—to obtain more flexible demand relationships that are globally regular. These preference relationships unlink substitution effects from income effects in ways that go beyond relaxation of homotheticity, and are more flexible than their direct dual. However, the estimation of these models as demand systems has proven to be challenging, and most published work in this area has focused on estimation approaches that involve approximations or that cannot fully identify parameter values in the preference relationships. Essay one introduces a direct approach which avoids approximations and allows parameters to be identified. We demonstrate the estimation using the readily accessible Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) and the confidential World Bank (International Comparison Program) databases, estimating the constant difference of elasticity or CDE directly in a maximum likelihood framework. In doing this, we show that the global regularity conditions stated in Hanoch (1975) can be slightly relaxed, and that the relaxed parametric conditions facilitate estimation. We introduce a normalization scheme that is beneficial for the scaling of the parameter values and which appears to have little impact on the economic performance of the estimated system. We develop a numerical test that justifies the normalization scheme. The series of procedures developed in this paper applied to this empirical example is generalized to solve many other econometric problems of general demand models of the Bergson family and those that are under-identified using reduced-form approaches. </div><div><br></div><div><b>Second Chapter</b>: This paper presents a general equilibrium gravity model of trade based on the constant difference of elasticities of substitution preferences. Hanoch (1975) illustrates these preferences' advantages in terms of parsimony and flexibility. This paper introduces a parsimonious, non-homothetic and globally well-behaved demand model into the gravity model that both separates substitution effects from income effects and has non-constant substitution elasticities. These features of the demand model---together with the structural estimation procedure devised in this paper---allow nesting several prominent theoretical motivations for the gravity model, and exploring the merits of this more general model. They also allow identification of the elasticity of trade costs with respect to distance and asymmetric border coefficients from the elasticity of trade flows with respect to trade costs. Most previous studies cannot separately identify these structural parameters. </div><div><br></div><div><b>Third Chapter</b>: The primary advantage of structural approaches to estimating the gravity model of trade is that they allow a transparent mapping of regression coefficients to structural parameters. Unfortunately, as shown in essay two, existing structural estimation methods are unable to separately identify trade costs and the trade elasticity without incorporating external data. We demonstrate that theoretical structure is alone sufficient for identifying all of the structural parameters of the canonical constant elasticity of substitution (CES) gravity model. We accomplish this by adopting an implicitly indirect representation of utility and estimating structurally using a mathematical program with equilibrium constraints. Our estimate of the elasticity of substitution is much smaller than in much of the rest of the literature, an outcome that we attribute to Pigou's Law, which ties income and substitution elasticities together in demand systems that assume additive preferences. This restriction is undesirable in demand systems, generally, and is a critical weakness for the canonical gravity model, a model that is commonly used to interpret the geographic trade pattern and to infer the welfare gains from trade. We demonstrate a non-homothetic CES model that both achieves identification and relaxes this restriction. Our counterfactual results based on the model suggest that the combination of a lower elasticity and lower trade costs generate a larger welfare change due to border removal compared to the CES model.<br></div>

<p>This dissertation examines the impact of the expansion of renewable technology at both national and local level, through distinct essays. At the national level, the first paper analyzes the effects of economic and distributional impacts of climate mitigation policy, in the context of a developing country, to understand the interactions between the energy system and the macroeconomic environment. In the case of the local level, the second paper uses synthetic control method, to estimate the effect at the county level of utility scale wind in the development indicators for two counties in the U.S. </p> <p>The first paper assesses the economic and distributional impacts of Nicaragua’s commitments to limit future greenhouse gas emissions in the context of the Paris Agreement, known as the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). The analysis relies on two distinct models. The first is a top-down approach based on a single-country computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, known as the Mitigation, Adaptation and New Technologies Applied General Equilibrium (MANAGE) Model. The second is a bottom-up approach based on the Open-Source energy Modeling System (OSeMOSYS), which is technology rich energy model. The combined model is calibrated to an updated social accounting matrix for Nicaragua, which disaggregates households into 20 representative types: 10 rural and 10 urban households. For the household disaggregation we have used information from the 2014 Living Standards Measurement Study (LSMS) for Nicaragua. Our analysis focuses on the distributional impacts of meeting the NDCs as well as additional scenarios—in a dynamic framework as the MANAGE model is a (recursive) dynamic model. The results show that a carbon tax has greatest potential for reduction in emissions, with modest impact in macro variables. An expansion of the renewable sources in the electricity matrix also leads to significant reduction in emissions. Only a carbon tax achieves a reduction in emissions consistent with keeping global warming below 2°C. Nicaragua’s NDC alone would not achieve the target and mitigation instruments are needed. An expansion of generation from renewable sources, does not lead to a scenario consistent with a 2°C pathway. </p> <p>The second paper measures the impact of wind generation on county level outcomes through the use of the Synthetic Control Method (SCM). SCM avoids the pitfalls of other methods such as input-output models and project level case studies that do not provide county level estimates. We find that the local per capita income effect of utility wind scale is 6 percent (translate into an increase of $1,511 in per capita income for 2019) for Benton County and 8 percent for White county in Indiana (an increase of $2,100 in per capita income for 2019). The per capita income effect measures the average impact, which includes the gains in rents from capital, land, and labor from wind power in these counties. Moreover, we find that most of the rents from wind power accrue to the owners of capital and labor. Even assuming the lowest projections of electricity prices and the highest reasonable cost we still find a 10 percent minimum rate of return to capital for both Benton and White counties’ wind power generators. Furthermore, we find that there are excess rents that could be taxed and redistributed at the county, state, or federal level without disincentivizing investment in wind power.</p>