This study examines the dynamic relationship between changes in oil prices and the economic policy uncertainty index for a sample of both net oil-exporting and net oil-importing countries over the period 1997:01-2013:06. To achieve that, we extend the Diebold and Yilmaz (2009, 2012) dynamic spillover index using structural decomposition. The results reveal that economic policy uncertainty (oil price shocks) responds negatively to aggregate demand oil price shocks (economic policy uncertainty shocks). Furthermore, during the Great Recession of 2007-2009, total spillovers increase considerably, reaching unprecedented heights. Moreover, in net terms, economic policy uncertainty becomes the dominant transmitter of shocks between 1997 and 2009, while in the post-2009 period there is a significant role for supply-side and oil specific demand shocks, as net transmitters of spillover effects. These results are important for policy makers, as well as, investors interested in the oil market. (authors' abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

This study examines the dynamic relationship between changes in oil prices and the economic policy uncertainty index for a sample of both net oil-exporting and net oil-importing countries over the period 1997:01-2013:06. To achieve that, an extension of the Diebold and Yilmaz (2009, 2012) dynamic spillover index based on structural decomposition is employed. The results reveal that economic policy uncertainty (oil price shocks) responds negatively to aggregate demand oil price shocks (economic policy uncertainty shocks). Furthermore, during the Great Recession of 2007-2009, total spillovers increase considerably, reaching unprecedented heights. Moreover, in net terms, economic policy uncertainty becomes the dominant transmitter of shocks between 1997 and 2009, while in the post-2009 period there is a significant role for supply-side and oil specific demand shocks, as net transmitters of spillover effects. These results are important for policy makers, as well as, investors interested in the oil market. (authors' abstract)

This paper builds on the study Prices on the Second-hand Market for Swedish Family Housesconducted by Lennart Berg, economist and associate professor emeritus from UppsalaUniversity in 2002. This study attempts to identify inter-and intraregional pricedependencies in Sweden for the second hand market for family houses. The house priceindices used in this econometric analysis commences in 1990:1 and ends in 2018:4 for allregions in accordance to NUTS 2 in Sweden.This thesis models the change of the regional prices for one-and two family houses indicatingthat the metropolitan area of Stockholm contributes predominantly to all other regionsthroughout the country. In addition, the capital city also shows cointegrated relationshipswith all regions although not the contrary. Shocks to the housing market of Stockholmindicate that Gothenburg, the Western region and Malmö are affected contemporaneouslyfollowed by the other regions nationwide with a certain time lag leading to say that thecontribution and influence of the capital city´s house price development leads the pricedevelopment throughout the country, Sweden. / Detta examensarbete ligger till grund av den tidigare studien Prices on the Second-handMarket for Swedish Family Houses av Lennart Berg, nationalekonom och professor emerituspå Uppsala Universitet, 2002. Denna studie har som mål att finna de inter-och intraregionala pris förhållanden i Sverige på den inhemska andrahandsmarknaden för en-och tvåfamiljhus. Med hjälp av ekonometriska analyser har fastighetsprisindex använts i rapportenmellan år 1990:1 till 2018:4 för samtliga regioner i landet enligt indelning av NUTS 2.Denna uppsats skattar de regionala prisförändringar för en-och två familjehus därindikationer tyder på att Stockholms län verkar vara prisledande i relation till alla andraregioner och storstadsområden i Sverige. Därutöver, visar det sig att huvudstaden harkointegrerande samband med resten av landets regioner dock ej tvärtom. Simuleradeekonomiska chocker på Stockholms län visar att att Stor-Göteborg, Västsverige och Stor-Malmö är påverkade samtidigt med hänsyn till tid följd av de resterande regionerna med ettvisst lag. Detta kan tyda på att Stockholms regionala utveckling samt prispåverkan lederprisutvecklingen i landet.

There is no single commonly adapted model that explains the influence that various monetary policy instruments carry for the economy. During 2011-2017, the Swedish inflation rate has remained below the 2 percent target which has led the Riksbank to take measures aimed at stimulating the inflation. As of May 2018, the repo rate has experienced a number of decreases and is now at 􀀀0:50% which represents an unprecedentedly low level. With the inflation rate remaining below the target whilst the housing market has experienced substantial growth and recent decline, the question arises regarding what impact the repo rate exerts on various macroeconomic measures. In this paper, a statistical time series analysis is conducted using a Vector Autoregression model and the impulse responses are studied. A model of 7 economic variables is constructed to specially study the effect of the repo rate on employment and housing prices. Results demonstrate that rational expectations exist in the economy. Furthermore, results show that the repo rate influences factors affected by inflation rapidly, exerting maximum influence during the first year after the shock. On the other hand, real variables based on quantitative measures that are adjusted for inflation experience the greatest influence of the repo rate after a delay of 6 to 7 quarters. Employment experiences the greatest negative response to a repo rate shock after 7 quarters, with a magnitude of 0.317 standard deviations per standard deviation in the repo rate shock. Housing prices experience the greatest negative response to a repo rate shock after 4 quarters, with a magnitude of 0.209 standard deviations per standard deviation in the repo rate shock. / Det finns ingen allmänt vedertagen modell som beskriver olika penningpolitiska instruments påverkan på ekonomin. Under 2011-2017 har Sveriges inflationstakt legat under 2-procentsmålet vilket har fått Riksbanken att vidta åtgärder i syfte att stimulera inflationen. Fram till maj 2018 har upprepade sänkningar av reporäntan genomförts och den ligger i dagsläget på 0:50% vilket är den lägsta nivån någonsin. Då inflationstakten inte nått målet samtidigt som bostadsmarknaden har upplevt kraftig tillväxt och nylig nedgång uppstår frågan gällande vilken effekt som reporäntan utlovar på diverse makroekonomiska mått. I denna rapport genomförs en statistisk tidsserieanalys med en vektorautoregression och impuls-responserna studeras. En modell med 7 ekonomiska variabler skapas för att specifikt studera effekten av reporäntan på sysselsättning och bostadspriser. Resultaten visar att rationella förväntningar finns i ekonomin. Vidare visar resultaten att reporäntan influerar inflationspåverkade variabler omgående, med maximal påverkan inom det första året efter chocken. Å andra sidan påverkas volymbaserade variabler som justeras för inflation maximalt först efter en fördröjning på 6 till 7 kvartal. Sysselsättningen upplever störst negativ påverkan från en reporäntechock efter 7 kvartal motsvarande 0.317 standardavvikelser per standardavvikelse i chocken. Bostadspriser upplever störst negativ påverkan från en reporäntechock efter 4 kvartal motsvarande 0.209 standardavvikelser per standardavvikelse i chocken.

No description available.

Perfusion magnetic resonance imaging is modern diagnostic method used mainly in oncology. In this method, contrast agent is injected to the subject and then is continuously monitored the progress of its concentration in the affected area in time. Correct determination of the arterial input function (AIF) is very important for perfusion analysis. One possibility is to model AIF by multichannel blind deconvolution but the estimated AIF is necessary to be scaled. This master´s thesis is focused on description of scaling methods and their influence on perfussion parameters in dependence on used model of AIF in different tissues.

由於住宅價格變動毫無預警制度，人民往往憑著個人主觀的判斷而決定何時購屋或售屋，而此種主觀判斷住宅市場利多及利空的觀念，對住宅市場的供需會產生失衡現象，因此是否可從經濟面的訊息找到住宅價格變動的答案，使住宅價格在尚未變動前，政府即已掌握資訊，提前做好穩定住宅價格的因應對策，使民眾依其需要而購屋，則是本研究之主要目的。 　　本研究從文獻中整理出影響住宅價格變動的七個總體經濟變數，這些總體經濟變數包含工資、物價、所得、貨幣供給額、股價、匯率及利率等，並利用向量自我迴歸模式(VAR)進行實證，以便較客觀的獲得變數間的落後期數及暸解變數間雙向、單向及領先、同步、落後情形，且進一步探討住宅價格與每一個總體經濟變數間影響程度大小及影響情形，以釐清各變數之間的關係。 　　本研究利用VAR模型進行住宅價格與總體經濟變數關係的研究，經由實證，得到下列的結論： 　　一、實證結果方面 　　本研究之實證主要有因果關係檢定與分析、變異數分解之分析及衝擊反應之分析三方面，其實證結果如下所述。 　　（一）因果關係檢定與分析 　　由因果關係檢定與分析中，得到股價、物價、匯率、貨幣供給額及利率均能做為住宅價格變動的領先指標。 　　（二）變異數分解之分析 　　由住宅價格之變異數分解中，得知住宅價格自身的解釋程度僅占三分之一，另三分之二被其他的總體經濟變數所解釋，顯示住宅價格受總體經濟變數的影響相當大；而從其他總體經濟變數之變異數分解中，得知住宅價格變動會干擾到總體經濟變數，而使總體經濟變數受干擾而變動變動。 　　（三）衝擊反應之分析 　　從總體經濟變數對住宅價格的衝擊反應分析圖中可以明顯看出除工資外，其餘總體經濟變數變動對住宅價格造成的衝擊均相當明顯，但匯率及利率對住宅價格的衝擊是負向的。 　　住宅價格對所得、股價、匯率及利率的衝擊相當明顯，而其對匯率的衝擊是負向。 　　二、政策應用方面 政府的決策過程中常會有時間落後的現象，而本研究實證的目的則是要使政府能事先掌握住宅價格的變動，並提前做好穩定住宅價格的因應對策，減少政府決策過程的時間落後現象，而實證結果應用至政策方面的內容則由以下說明之。 　　（一）藉由因果關係檢定與分析的實證內容，可以縮短政府對住宅價格不合理變動問題認定落後的時間。 　　（二）從變異數分解之分析的實證內容中，可以使決策者在解決住宅價格問題時，將行動落後的時間減少。 　　（三）由衝擊反應之分析中，可以使政府在執行穩定住宅價格政策時，將衝擊落後的時間縮小。 / Since there is no alarm system in the change of housing prices, people often decide when to buy or when to sell based on personal and subjective judgement. Such concept to judge subjectively whether the housing market is bull or bear will cause unequilibrium in the supply and demend of the housing market. There it is possible to find out the answers to the change of housing prices from economic side so that the government can have enough information and can be prepared in the reaction to stabilizing the housing prices, and so that the public can buy house according to their needs is the main purpose of this project. 　　Seven variables in macroeconomics influencing the change of housing prices have been taken from reative literature, including wage, commodity price, income, money supply, stock price, exchange rate, and interest rate. VAR has been employed to verify so that the more objective lagging period among variable can be known, and the bi-directional, uni-directional, leading, contemporaneous, and lagging situation among variables can be understood. Furthermore, the degree and the status of influence of each macroeconomic variable to the housing price will be investigated to clarify the relations among the variables. 　　The present project investigate the relations between housing price and macroeconomic variables. We have the following findings: 　　I、In Empirical Study: 　　The empirical study in this project includes causal relation test and analysis, the analysis of variable decompositon, and the analysis of impact response. The results are shown in the following: 　　(I) Causality Test and Analysis 　　In the causality test and analysis, we find out that stock price, commodity price, exchange rate, money supply and interest rate all can be the leading indicators in the change of housing prices. 　　(II) The Analysis of Variable Decomposition 　　It is learned from the variable decomposition of housing prices that housing price can only explain one third of the cause in its change, the other two thirds are explained by other macroeconomic variables. It shows that housing prices are subject to the influence of macroeconomic variables greatly. 　　From the variable decomposition of other macroeconomic variables, we know that the change in housing prices will affect macroeconomic variables so that the macroeconomic variables will change. 　　(III) The Analysis of Impact Response 　　It can be obviously seen from the analysis figure of the impact response of the macroeconomics to housing prices, all macroeconomic variables will cause obvious impact to housing prices expect for wage. However, both exchange rate and interest rate have negative impact to housing prices. 　　Housing prices' impact to income, stock prices, exchange rate and interest rate is quite obvious, among which, the impact to exchange rate is negative. 　　II、Policy Application 　　It is a common phenomenon that there often will be lagging in time in government's decision making. The purise of the empirical study in this project is to let the government to know in advance the change of housing prices and to let the government to know in advance the change of housing prices and to let the government be prepared in the reaction of stabilizing the housing prices to minimize the lagging in the decision making process. The contents of application of the empirical study to policy are explained in the following: 　　(I) With the empirical results of the change of the causality test and analysis, the time for the government to recognize the unreasonable changes in housing prices can be shortened. 　　(II) With the empirical results of the analysis of variable decomposition, the decision makers' lagging in the action responding to housing pricescan be minimized. 　　(III) With the analysis in impact response, the lagging in impact will be minimized when the government executing her housing price stabilizing policy.

Submitted by Ary Cera Zanetta Neto Zanetta (ary.zanetta@brasil-capital.com) on 2014-08-19T19:21:54Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Efeitos de Choques Globais na Economia Brasileira_ Uma Análise a Partir do GVAR.pdf: 1085836 bytes, checksum: 25e953aa352fed09b5b828362226aab9 (MD5) / Rejected by JOANA MARTORINI (joana.martorini@fgv.br), reason: A ficha catalográfica não está valida, por gentileza aguardar o envio da ficha correta pala biblioteca digital. on 2014-08-19T19:29:14Z (GMT) / Submitted by Ary Cera Zanetta Neto Zanetta (ary.zanetta@brasil-capital.com) on 2014-08-19T20:33:33Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Efeitos de Choques Globais na Economia Brasileira_ Uma Análise a Partir do GVAR.pdf: 1085836 bytes, checksum: 25e953aa352fed09b5b828362226aab9 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by JOANA MARTORINI (joana.martorini@fgv.br) on 2014-08-20T16:30:59Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Efeitos de Choques Globais na Economia Brasileira_ Uma Análise a Partir do GVAR.pdf: 1085836 bytes, checksum: 25e953aa352fed09b5b828362226aab9 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2014-08-20T19:02:31Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Efeitos de Choques Globais na Economia Brasileira_ Uma Análise a Partir do GVAR.pdf: 1085836 bytes, checksum: 25e953aa352fed09b5b828362226aab9 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-08-05 / O objetivo deste estudo é avaliar a propagação de choques econômicos de alguns países sobre o crescimento econômico brasileiro, com principal destaque para China, Estados Unidos da América (EUA) e Argentina, que são os principais parceiros comerciais do Brasil. O aumento do comércio com a China tornou o Brasil muito mais vulnerável a choques no PIB chinês e menos vulnerável, do que no passado recente, a choques no PIB americano, enquanto que a influência da Argentina manteve-se estável. Foi aplicada a metodologia Vetor Autorregressivo Global (Global Var – GVAR), introduzida por Pesaran, Schuermann e Weiner (2004), Garratt, Lee, Pesaran e Shin (2006) e Dées, Di Mauro, Pesaran e Smith (2007), para analisar os canais de comércio e a transmissão de choques entre o resto do mundo e o Brasil. Usando dados trimestrais a partir de 1990 até o final de 2013, foi possível constatar que o aumento da relevância da economia Chinesa na balança comercial Brasileira exerce pressão sobre o crescimento econômico do Brasil. Em suma, a China tornou-se mais relevante para o crescimento econômico do Brasil do que os EUA e a Argentina. / The objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of variations in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of countries and economic blocks over Brazilian economic growth, with emphasis on China, United States of America (USA) and Argentina, which are the main commercial partners of Brazil. The increase in trading with China has made Brazil more vulnerable to shocks in Chinese GDP and less vulnerable, than in the recent past, to shocks in American GDP, and stability in the case of Argentina. It has been applied the methodology Global Vector Autorregressive (Global Var – GVAR), introduced, explained and expanded by Pesaran, Schuermann and Weiner (2004), Garratt, Lee, Pesaran and Shin (2006) and Dées, Di Mauro, Pesaran and Smith (2007) to analyze the trading channels and the transmission of shocks between the rest of the world and Brazil (specially with China, USA and Argentina). Using a sample from the first quarter of 1990 to the third quarter of 2013 it is possible to see that the increase of relevance of the Chinese economy on the Brazil trade balance increased the relevance of the Chinese economy over the Brazilian economy. Therefore, the conclusions of this work indicate a considerable vulnerability of the Brazilian economy to the Chinese economic cycle and, in a lower degree than in the past, to the American and Argentinian economies.

Submitted by Karla Malafaia (karlamalafaia@gmail.com) on 2013-02-26T23:31:57Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_Karla_Malafaia_VF_posbanca.pdf: 730119 bytes, checksum: 82ceecb815ca22f5f1e5fee680caf839 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Vera Lúcia Mourão (vera.mourao@fgv.br) on 2013-02-27T13:25:04Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_Karla_Malafaia_VF_posbanca.pdf: 730119 bytes, checksum: 82ceecb815ca22f5f1e5fee680caf839 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-02-27T13:29:38Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_Karla_Malafaia_VF_posbanca.pdf: 730119 bytes, checksum: 82ceecb815ca22f5f1e5fee680caf839 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-01-29 / Este trabalho se propõe a testar e quantificar a importância do investimento de longo prazo, captado pela série de desembolsos da linha BNDES Finem, na produção industrial brasileira. Através dos modelos de causalidade de Granger e Função resposta ao impulso, podemos verificar as respostas acumuladas ao longo de três anos da linha Finem a choques positivos de um desvio padrão nas variáveis inflação, produção industrial, spread, e, da mesma forma um choque na variável Finem com resposta nas variáveis acima descritas. Além disso, é possível identificar a importância do BNDES como um ator anticíclico em períodos de crise como na economia brasileira. Como resultado, encontramos que apesar dos desembolsos Finem não Granger causarem a produção industrial brasileira, se testadas em conjunto com dados de inflação e a diferença entre a Selic e a TJLP rejeita-se a hipótese nula de não causalidade a 1% de significância. Já os testes de funções de resposta ao impulso indicam que a taxa de crescimento da produção industrial tem resposta positiva a um choque de desvio padrão nos desembolsos de Finem. Contudo, se testada em conjunto um choque no Finem apesar de impactar positivamente a produção industrial acaba pressionando a inflação. / This work is to test and quantify the importance of a long-term investment captured by the series of disbursements of BNDES Finem line in brazilian industrial production. Through Granger causality and impulse-response function, it was possible to check the Finem line accumulated answers along three years to positive shocks of a standard deviation on the variables inflation, industrial production, spread, and a shock on Finem variable with answer on the previous described variables. Furthermore, it's possible to identify the BNDES's importance as a countercyclical tool in crisis period as in brazilian economy. As a result, we found that despite causing the brazilian industrial production, if the no Granger Finem's disbursements are tested with inflation data and the difference between Selic and TJLP, the null hypothesis of no causality at 1% of significance is rejected. Yet, the tests of impulse-response function indicate that the industrial production growth rate has positive answer to a shock of standard deviation on Finem's disbursements. However, despite impacting the industrial production positevely, it pressures the inflation if it's tested with a shock on Finem.

Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Economics / Wayne Nafziger / This dissertation constructs three empirical essays. The first essay illustrates the causality on the relationship between output (GDP) growth and exports. By using the Modified Wald (MWald) test we observe unidirectional causality from exports to GDP. More specifically, for the robustness we use a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) model and the Generalized Impulse Response Function Analysis (GIRA). The VECM and the GIRA yield bidirectional causality between exports and GDP, which weakly supports the unidirectional result of the to MWald test. Meanwhile, we confirm that there is structure break by using the structural break test. These results are plausible and consistent with the expectations of our study for the Export Led Growth Hypothesis (ELGH). However, compared with previous studies on the ELGH for Korea, our results are different. Other studies show a bidirectional causality relationship but this study only has unidirectional causality. These differences may be caused from different observation data, various variables, and use of different econometric methodologies. Also, model selection and omitting variables can also significantly change the results of causality testing. The second essay investigates a degree of competition between Korea's and China's exports in the U.S. market by using the substitute elasticity on a simple demand model. The market share of Korean exports has been decreasing while that of China's has been increasing. The results of this study are as follows. First, we find that Korea has a dominant market share of only goods group code 27 in commodity groups over that of China, otherwise having China's dominant market shares over those of Korea for other export sections by using historical trade data. Second, most estimates of substitute elasticity between both countries' exports in the U.S. market are small (inelastic). However, 61 (apparel articles and accessories, knit or crochet), 62 (apparel articles and accessories, not knit etc) and 85 (electric machinery etc, sound equipments, TV equipment, parts) commodity groups' substitute elasticities are large (elastic) and are competitive in the U.S. market compared with those of China. A small value of the elasticity of substitution may be due to an identification problem for a simple standard model as well as measurement errors in prices as a unit value in this study. So, in order to avoid problems such as these, we may need to use appropriate instrumental or proxy variables in the simple standard model, which highly correlate with the independent (unit price) variables and are uncorrelated with measurement error terms. In practice, it is not easy to find good instrumental variables. The final essay evaluates the roles of price and income as important factors that affect Korea's exports by using the most recent monthly data. By using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach we find the long-run relationship of variables and estimate the long-run price and income elasticities. However, the estimates of these long-run elasticities are statistically insignificant. This may be due to some misspecifications or measurement errors in our model. Meanwhile, due to the existence of the long-run relationship between variables, we construct the Error Correction Model (ECM) in order to observe the short-run dynamics of the elasticities. Specifically, we add a dummy variable into our export demand model to achieve more efficient estimations since the dummy variable reflects a shock in Korea's export; Korea's economic crisis in 1997. In contrast to the long-run elasticity, we find that the short-run elasticities' estimates are more statistically significant. When we use the structure break test to check the structural stability of Korea's export demand, we find that there is no structural break point of 1997. Therefore, a shock of Korea's economic crisis in 1997 might not significantly affect Korea's export demand in a given sample. However, the Information Technology (IT) bubble of the world economy in 2001 and the entry of Korea into the OECD had triggered an increase in Korea's export demand due to existing structural break points of both events. In addition, we find that income elasticities are larger than price elasticities in the short run. This implies that income has more of an impact than that of price for the export demand model in the short run. This also implies that the change of Korea's exports in the short run is more sensitive to changes in foreign income (industrial production) compared with that of price (exchange rate). An interesting result, thus, is that Korea's exports in the short run may have higher export performance on income than that of price (exchange rate). This might be a consequence of the dependence of an increase in foreign income in recent years. In recent years, developing countries have greatly increased their economic growth compared with that of developed countries and Korea's exports have increased into these developing countries. Thus, we confirm that an increase in Korea's exports is mainly affected by income compared with price, specifically in the short run by using recent data.