Sammanfattning Introduktion: Sverige har en lång tradition av olika pensions system, så tidigt som 1914 blev det första sy-stemet implementerat. Systemet har blivit förändrat åtskilliga gånger och 1998 infördes Premie Pensions (PPM) systemet. PPM är en blandning av ett distributionsbaserat system och ett fondbaserat system. 16 procent av en individs inkomst är bundet till det distribu-tionsbaserade systemet för att kunna finansiera dagens pensioner. 2,5 procent av en indi-vids inkomst är låst till det fondbaserade systemet och kan investeras av individen i olika fonder. PPM systemet har blivit utsatt för mycket kritik eftersom tidigare studier påvisat att flertalet svenskar inte gör aktiva fondval samt att de har otillräcklig kunskap. Diversifiering förklaras bäst genom talesättet; att inte placera alla ägg i samma korg. Diver-sifiering är ett mått på hur väl en investerare lyckats sprida risken i sin portfölj genom att fördela tillgångarna i olika sorters värdepapper. Syfte: Syftet med denna uppsats är att studera huruvida svenskens pensionsportfölj inom PPM är diversifierad. Detta syfte valdes för att ingen tidigare studie med ett likadant syfte genomförts samt där-för att risken med att inneha en dåligt diversifierad portfölj kan vara stor. Metodval: En kvantitativ ansats har använts i denna uppsats då syftet med den är att dra slutsatser ba-serat på en stor urvalsgrupp. Andrahandsdata emottaget från PPM har uteslutande använts för att genomföra den empiriska studien. För att underlätta studien har en viss begränsning av information gjorts. I studien har ett urval av 100 individer samt 50 fonder använts. En avgränsning är att endast fonddata för de tre senaste åren använts. Trots dessa tillkorta-kommanden hävdar författarna att en hög validitet och reliabilitet har uppnåtts i uppsatsen. Slutsats: Efter att ha jämfört individernas portföljer mot efficient frontier, har åtskilliga resultat uppdagats som påvisar samma slutsats; att svenskens pensionsportfölj inom PPM är dåligt diversifie-rad. Handlingsplan för ansvariga: Att genomföra vidare studier med syfte att få mer kunskap om varför portföljerna är dåligt diversifierade samt implementera dessa resultat av studien i praktiken. / Introduction: Sweden has a long tradition of pension systems, as early as 1914 was the first system implemented. The system has been changed a number of times and in 1998 was the Premium pension authority (PPM) system introduced. PPM is a mixture of a distribution-based system and fund-based system. 16 per cent of an individual’s income is devoted to the distribution-based system for financing today’s pensions. 2.5 per cent of an individual’s income is looked in the fund-based system and can be invested by the individual in different funds. The PPM system has been a target for much criticism since earlier studies has shown that the Swedes do not make an active choice nor have the demanded knowledge. Diversification is best explained through the saying; not to place all your eggs in the same basket. Diversification is a measure of how well an investor has succeeded to spread the risk of the portfolio by allocating assets in different securities. Purpose: The purpose of this thesis is to study whether the Swedish inhabitant’s pension portfolios within the PPM system are diversified. This purpose has been chosen because no studies have been made with an identical aim and also that the risk with holding a poorly diversified portfolio is grave. Methodology: A quantitative approach has been chosen since the aim of the thesis is to draw conclusions based on large sample numbers. Solitary secondary data, received from PPM, has been used to conduct the empirical study. To simplify the study limitations of information have been made; in the study samples of 100 individuals and 50 funds have been used. A Delimitation of the study is that only fund data for the last three years has been used. Despite the scarcities of the thesis the authors claim that the thesis has high validity and reliability. Conclusions: When benchmarking the individual portfolios against the efficient frontier a number of results were revealed and they all ended up in the same conclusion that the Swede’s pension portfolio within the PPM system is insufficient diversified. Implication for management of the PPM system To conduct further studies with the aim to get knowledge; why the investments are poorly diversified and find ways to transform the suggestions of the study into practice.

<p>Sammanfattning Introduktion: Sverige har en lång tradition av olika pensions system, så tidigt som 1914 blev det första sy-stemet implementerat. Systemet har blivit förändrat åtskilliga gånger och 1998 infördes Premie Pensions (PPM) systemet. PPM är en blandning av ett distributionsbaserat system och ett fondbaserat system. 16 procent av en individs inkomst är bundet till det distribu-tionsbaserade systemet för att kunna finansiera dagens pensioner. 2,5 procent av en indi-vids inkomst är låst till det fondbaserade systemet och kan investeras av individen i olika fonder. PPM systemet har blivit utsatt för mycket kritik eftersom tidigare studier påvisat att flertalet svenskar inte gör aktiva fondval samt att de har otillräcklig kunskap. Diversifiering förklaras bäst genom talesättet; att inte placera alla ägg i samma korg. Diver-sifiering är ett mått på hur väl en investerare lyckats sprida risken i sin portfölj genom att fördela tillgångarna i olika sorters värdepapper. Syfte: Syftet med denna uppsats är att studera huruvida svenskens pensionsportfölj inom PPM är diversifierad. Detta syfte valdes för att ingen tidigare studie med ett likadant syfte genomförts samt där-för att risken med att inneha en dåligt diversifierad portfölj kan vara stor. Metodval: En kvantitativ ansats har använts i denna uppsats då syftet med den är att dra slutsatser ba-serat på en stor urvalsgrupp. Andrahandsdata emottaget från PPM har uteslutande använts för att genomföra den empiriska studien. För att underlätta studien har en viss begränsning av information gjorts. I studien har ett urval av 100 individer samt 50 fonder använts. En avgränsning är att endast fonddata för de tre senaste åren använts. Trots dessa tillkorta-kommanden hävdar författarna att en hög validitet och reliabilitet har uppnåtts i uppsatsen. Slutsats: Efter att ha jämfört individernas portföljer mot efficient frontier, har åtskilliga resultat uppdagats som påvisar samma slutsats; att svenskens pensionsportfölj inom PPM är dåligt diversifie-rad. Handlingsplan för ansvariga: Att genomföra vidare studier med syfte att få mer kunskap om varför portföljerna är dåligt diversifierade samt implementera dessa resultat av studien i praktiken.</p> / <p>Introduction: Sweden has a long tradition of pension systems, as early as 1914 was the first system implemented. The system has been changed a number of times and in 1998 was the Premium pension authority (PPM) system introduced. PPM is a mixture of a distribution-based system and fund-based system. 16 per cent of an individual’s income is devoted to the distribution-based system for financing today’s pensions. 2.5 per cent of an individual’s income is looked in the fund-based system and can be invested by the individual in different funds. The PPM system has been a target for much criticism since earlier studies has shown that the Swedes do not make an active choice nor have the demanded knowledge. Diversification is best explained through the saying; not to place all your eggs in the same basket. Diversification is a measure of how well an investor has succeeded to spread the risk of the portfolio by allocating assets in different securities. Purpose: The purpose of this thesis is to study whether the Swedish inhabitant’s pension portfolios within the PPM system are diversified. This purpose has been chosen because no studies have been made with an identical aim and also that the risk with holding a poorly diversified portfolio is grave. Methodology: A quantitative approach has been chosen since the aim of the thesis is to draw conclusions based on large sample numbers. Solitary secondary data, received from PPM, has been used to conduct the empirical study. To simplify the study limitations of information have been made; in the study samples of 100 individuals and 50 funds have been used. A Delimitation of the study is that only fund data for the last three years has been used. Despite the scarcities of the thesis the authors claim that the thesis has high validity and reliability. Conclusions: When benchmarking the individual portfolios against the efficient frontier a number of results were revealed and they all ended up in the same conclusion that the Swede’s pension portfolio within the PPM system is insufficient diversified. Implication for management of the PPM system To conduct further studies with the aim to get knowledge; why the investments are poorly diversified and find ways to transform the suggestions of the study into practice.</p>

L’immobilier est un actif récalcitrant, hétérogène et illiquide, ces incertitudes constituent l`appréhension du risque en immobilier d`entreprise. Nous suggérons que le risque peut être évaluer à travers une somme de mesure de risque : en premier lieu dans une approche globale de la volatilité, ce que peut nous proposer une analyse de portefeuille, puis dans une approche plus fine, que peut nous donner la prime de risque d`un marché bureau. Notre travail doctoral se propose d’adapter les outils hérités du monde financier à l’évaluation du risque dans les principaux marchés de bureau Européen. Notre thèse sera rédigée en anglais et la question de recherche s`articulera autour de trois grands axes que nous illustrons sous forme d’articles. / The real estate asset class is tangible, heterogeneous and illiquid. It gives a specific investment universe that needs to be understood by investors, because the uncertainties created by this universe compose the risk of real estate investment. We suggest modelling risks across a sum of risk unit appraisal, on one hand, in constructing portfolio analysis, and on the other hand, through the office market risk premium modelling. Our doctoral study proposes to adapt financial theorems to risk modelling in the main European office markets. Our thesis will be written in Englishand its body will be articulated around three axes whereby those will be illustrated under the form of article.

Inicialmente neste trabalho são apresentados os conceitos básicos de média e variância e como estes se aplicam na caracterização de um ativo ou carteira de investimento. Posteriormente são apresentadas as estratégias ótimas de investimento para o modelo de Markowitz sem posições a descoberto em ativos de risco, e sem tal restrição. Ainda neste trabalho é apresentada uma breve revisão do modelo de tempo contínuo para o problema de média-variância sem posições a descoberto em ativos de risco, e como objetivo principal do mesmo é proposto um modelo em tempo discreto multiperíodo a partir do modelo de tempo contínuo, o qual é implementado computacionalmente para o mercado de capitais brasileiro. O resultado obtido é comparado com a estratégia de período único do modelo de Markowitz sem posições a descoberto em ativos de risco, sendo este modelo aplicado sequencialmente no horizonte de tempo considerado para o modelo multiperíodo. / Initially in this work are presented the basics concepts of mean and variance and how they are applied to quantify an asset or a portfolio. After this we present the optimal investment strategy of the Markowitz no-shorting constraints mean-variance portfolio selection in single period and the Markowitz optimal investment strategy without such constrain. Following this, we present a short review of the continuous-time dynamic model for the mean-variance portfolio selection with no-shorting constraints in risky assets problem. As the main objective of this work we propose a discrete time multiperiod model based on the continuous-time portfolio selection with no-shorting constraints in risky assets, that is applied to the Brazilian financial market. This result is compared with the investment strategy of the Markowitz no-shorting constraints mean-variance portfolio selection in single period applied sequentially in the multiperiod case.

The 2007-2008 financial crash and the looming climate change and global warming have heightened interest in sustainable investment. But whether the shift is as a result of the financial crash or a desire to preserve the environment, a sustainable investment might be desirable. However, to maintain this interest and to motivate investors in indulging in sustainability, there is the need to show the possibility of yielding positive returns. The main objective of the thesis is to investigate whether the sustainable investment can lead to higher returns. The thesis focuses primarily on incorporating sustainability into Markowitz portfolio optimization. It looks into the essence of sustainability and its impact on companies by comparing different concepts. The analysis is based on the 30 constituent stocks from the Dow Jones industrial average or simply the Dow. The constituents stocks of the Dow, from 2007-12-31 to 2018-12-31 are investigated. The thesis compares the cumulative return of the Dow with the sustainable stocks in the Dow based on their environmental, social and governance (ESG) rating. The results are then compared with the Dow Jones Industrial Average denoted by the symbol (^DJI) which is considered as the benchmark for my analysis. The constituent stocks are then optimized based on the Markowitz mean-variance framework and a conclusion is drawn from the constituent stocks, ESG, environmental, governance and social asset results. It was realized that the portfolio returns for stocks selected based on their environmental and governance ratings were the highest performers. This could be due to the fact that most investors base their investment selection on the environmental and governance performance of companies and the demand for stocks in that category could have gone up over the period, contributing significantly to their performance.

This paper seeks to unconventionally maximize the volatility of a portfolio through a quartic optimization based on Markowitz’s modern portfolio theory, which generally seeks to do exactly the opposite. It shows that through this method, a daily leveraged exchange traded fund (ETF) strategy investigated by Posterro can be significantly improved upon in terms of its Sharpe ratio. The original strategy seeks to use a combination of momentum trading and tracking error in leveraged ETFs to trade during the last half an hour of the trading day, but it suffers in a low volatility market. By maximizing the volatility to take better advantage of tracking error and momentum, this problem is addressed by both increasing the mean daily return and significantly decreasing the variance of the strategy’s daily returns. GARCH forecasting is also implemented to assist in the maximization of the daily portfolios’ variances, though this does not prove to make a statistically significant difference in the strategy’s performance.

"It is the part of a wise man to keep himself today for tomorrow, and not venture all his eggs in one basket."                     - Don Quixote (Part I, Book III, Chapter 9) by Miguel de Cervantes Saavedra [1547-1616]     This research aimed to investigate whether it is possible for investors to diversify their investment and reduce the risk of investment by investing in the selected European countries.  Stock market cointegration and international diversification is a widely accepted topic among the scholars and academics in recent years.  This current study is motivated from the significant amount of interesting studies in this field. A combination of not perfectly positively correlated instruments gives the investor an opportunity to gain from portfolio diversification.  Similarly, Investors can attain diversification benefit if one country’s stock market is not cointegrated with other country’s stock market.  Six European countries and a time frame of ten years (January, 2001 to December, 2010) have been taken into consideration for the purpose of this research.  The countries are UK, Denmark, Germany, Spain, Poland, and Czech Republic.  The time period of the study is divided into two sub period to observe the recent crisis effect on these selected countries. A quantitative approach is adopted in the research.  We used an econometric model for this research which is Johansen and Juselius multivariate cointegration approach.  The evidence from the study suggest that although cointegration exists among the selected countries in some extent, investors can still get some diversification opportunity by investing in the emerging countries (Czech Republic and Poland).  This study is unique in the sense that in our research, we wanted to fill the research gap by combining new and old EU member countries with the latest time period of study and also considered the recent crisis effect.   This study has a number of implications on portfolio managers, policy makers, and academic scholars.

The domestic life insurance industry at present is in the steep competition situation. With the fund accumulated rapidly, which investment strategy the life insurance company should take is very important. Law of Insurance 146th puts the restriction on the investment upper limit of the life insurance company. This research will discuss the influence of this investment restriction on life insurance companies¡¦ asset allocation by the samples of Cathay Life Insurance and Shin Kong Life Insurance, and also evaluate the performances of these two life insurance companies. Moreover, under the investment restriction, this research compares the investment rates of return between the optimal portfolios by different portfolio performance measures and the actual portfolios of the two life insurance companies and also shows that which portfolio performance measure is more suitable for life insurance companies to contribute to the decision-making of the life insurance companies about asset allocation. This research utilizes the Efficient Frontier that is inferred from the Markowitz¡¦s portfolio selection model to apply on the Sharpe measure and the IRp measure to achieve the research¡¦s goal mentioned above. The conclusions of this research are as follows: 1. Evaluated by the Sharpe measure, whether there is the investment restriction or not, the difference is small¡FEvaluated by the IRp measure, then there is the higher expected rate of return and better diversification with no investment restriction. 2.The actual rates of return of Cathay Life Insurance and Shin Kong Life Insurance are below the expected rates of returns of their portfolio evaluated be the Sharpe measure and the IRp measure. Moreover, This two measures show that Cathay Life Insurance has the better investment performance then Shin Kong Life Insurance. 3. Under the investment restriction, the differences between the expected rates of return of the optimal portfolio whether by the Sharpe measure or the IRp measure and the investment rates of return of the actual portfolio of these two companies are caused by the influence of the macro economy. 4. If there is no investment restriction, the optimal portfolio of the IRp measure has the better diversification that fits the conservative character of the life insurance companies.

In Banken wird zunehmend das Modell von Markowitz zur Portfoliooptimierung als verkaufsförderndes Instrument verwendet. Dieses Modell stellt jedoch lediglich eine theoretische Grundlage zur Portfoliobildung dar, berücksichtigt jedoch keine Transaktionskosten oder Besonderheiten von Kleinanlegern. Es wird in die Thematik der Portfoliooptimierung eingeführt und mit Hilfe praktischer Überlegungen zur Kostenstruktur eine Modellwelt zur Ermittlung des erwartenen (Nutzen des) Endvermögens entwickelt. Dabei wird das Black-Scholes- Modell verwendet um in Simulationen Handlungsempfehlungen unter Berücksichtigung besonderes Eigenschaften von Kleinanlegern herauszuarbeiten und den Einfluss von Kosten auf das Endvermögen zu analysieren. Zur Bestimmung optimaler Portfolios kommt die Martingalmethode zur Lösung eines dynamischen Optimierungsproblems zum Einsatz.

Submitted by Marco Antônio de Ramos Chagas (mchagas@ufv.br) on 2017-07-14T17:05:01Z No. of bitstreams: 1 texto completo.PDF: 660373 bytes, checksum: db7b4d41a47e00502d67b6b5c85559f7 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-07-14T17:05:01Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 texto completo.PDF: 660373 bytes, checksum: db7b4d41a47e00502d67b6b5c85559f7 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2001-12-14 / No ambiente globalizado em que se configuram as negociações de comércio internacional, busca-se a estabilidade das receitas de exportações para que seja possível planejar o crescimento e o desenvolvimento econômico de longo prazo com maior equilíbrio e eqüidade social. A composição da pauta de exportações em produtos adequados quanto a maiores receitas e menores riscos é fundamental para inicialmente, que que a se composição obtenham bons concentrada da resultados. Argumentava-se, pauta exportações de em produtos primários favoreceria a instabilidade das receitas de exportações, o que levou diversos países a empreenderem políticas de diversificação em produtos industrializados para maior estabilidade das receitas. No caso brasileiro, houve sucesso quanto às políticas de promoção de exportações implementadas pelo governo pós-64 e amparadas pelo desenvolvimento industrial ocorrido nos anos 30. Analisando a composição alcançada da pauta, em termos de produtos tradicionais e não-tradicionais, têm-se os anos 80 como o período de maior instabilidade para os retornos obtidos do comércio internacional. Já na década de 90, os produtos apresentam melhorias quanto à instabilidade individual das receitas. No entanto, os produtos tradicionais são aqueles que apresentam melhores medidas de estabilidade, indicando que um programa de diversificação por si só não promove maior estabilidade das receitas de exportações; é necessário que a diversificação busque produtos com estabilidade individual e correlação favorável das receitas. Para estruturar uma pauta de exportações eficiente, de acordo com maiores receitas e menores riscos, pode-se utilizar o modelo de portfólio de Markowitz, que otimiza a pauta de acordo com esses parâmetros. A partir dos resultados obtidos nesta modelagem, analisam-se, comparativamente, os produtos mais estáveis e aqueles selecionados para a pauta eficiente em termos de elasticidade-variância, para corroborar os resultados obtidos. Observa-se, assim, certa coincidência entre os produtos mais estáveis e aqueles selecionados nos moldes do modelo de portfólio de Markowitz. Verifica- se que as Seções Matérias Têxteis, Indústrias Alimentares e Metais Comuns e Suas Obras aparecem com importância em todos os períodos, indicando o potencial de seus produtos em estabilizar a conformação estrutural da pauta de exportações do país. No ambiente incerto de comércio, o uso de ferramentas que permitam orientar decisões para o setor exportador é de fundamental importância para se precaver quanto às adversidades. Assim, a Teoria de Markowitz auxilia o tomador de decisão na administração do risco e na definição de produtos a serem promovidos à exportação em razão do retorno e risco encontrados nas negociações internacionais. / In the globalized environment, stability in export quantities is strived for in international business negotiations with the objective of basing plans for long- term economic growth and development in better balance and with higher social equality. Adequate products with higher profit/gain and lower risks in the configuration of the exportation list are fundamental to achieve satisfactory results. Initially, the concentration on primary products in the configuration of the exportation list was considered to favor the instability of export profits, which made several countries introduce politics of diversification for industrialized products to achieve greater stability in profits. In the case of Brazil, politics for exportation promotion implanted by the post-64 government and backed up by the industrial development during the thirties have been successful. An analysis of traditional and non-traditional products found in the configuration of the list presents the eighties as the period of highest instability for profits in international business. In the nineties, however, the products presented improvements in relation to the individual instability of profits. Nevertheless, traditional products have presented the highest means in stability, which goes to show that a diversification program in itself does not necessarily promote a higher stability of exportation gains; it is essential that the diversification aims at products with individual stability and favorable gain correlation. To structure an efficient exportation list in agreement with higher gains and lower risks, the Markowitz portfolio model can be used, which optimizes the list in agreement with these parameters. From the results obtained in this modelling, the more stable products and those selected for the efficient list are analyzed comparatively in terms of elasticity-variance, to confirm the obtained results. A certain coincidence between the most stable products and those chosen in the forms of the Markowitz portfolio model can be observed. The Sections Textile Materials, Alimentary Industries, Common Metals and Their Products appear with significance in all periods, thus indicating the potential of their products to stabilize the structural constitution of the country’s exportation list. In the environment of uncertainty for business, the use of tools which allow orientation in decisions for the export sector is a precautionary measure of fundamental importance against adversities. The Markowitz Theory helps the decision taker hereby in risk administration and definition of products which are to be promoted for exportation, according to profit and risks found in international negotiations. / Tese importada do Alexandria