This study is based on three models, Markov model, Hidden Markov model and the Radial basis function neural network. A number of work has been done before about application of these three models to the stock market. Though, individual researchers have developed their own techniques to design and test the Radial basis function neural network. This paper aims to show the different ways and precision of applying these three models to predict price processes of the stock market. By comparing the same group of data, authors get different results. Based on Markov model, authors find a tendency of stock market in future and, the Hidden Markov model behaves better in the financial market. When the fluctuation of the stock price index is not drastic, the Radial basis function neural network has a nice prediction.

國內有許多以不同資料、次市場劃分以及控制品質的方法編製房地產相關價格指數，提供不同的價格資訊，然而編製的過程可能產生偏誤，影響價格指數之準確性，導致房價指數變動與市場訊息不符，因此各種相關房價指數之市場代表性仍有待釐清。 本文首先觀察目前市場較常使用之信義房價指數(中古屋)及國泰房地產指數(預售屋及新成屋)，發現近年來信義房價指數無法適當反應房地產市場景氣繁榮的情形。此二房價指數領先落後的關係亦不符合相關理論及過去實證，因此認為此二房價指數長期趨勢受到編製資料及估計方法上的偏誤所影響。接著利用政府(房地產交易價格簡訊)及業者(台灣不動產成交行情公報)資料以特徵價格法重新建立台北市及台北縣中古屋房價指數，並與信義房價指數作比較，結果顯示本文建立之中古屋房價指數相對於信義房價指數較符合市場變動與相關訊息。最後，為求未來房地產資訊之應用，將過去相關房價指數研究成果與本文建立之房價指數整合，並驗證台北市國泰房地產指數領先整合中古屋房價指數一季，台北縣國泰房地產指數領先整合中古屋房價指數二季，顯示此台北都會區的中古屋及預售屋房價指數相互間的關係符合相關理論推導與過去實證結果。 / There are many real-estate related price indices established in various formation of datum, submarkets and modeling, providing different kinds of price information. But the process itself may be a victim of error, hence affecting the precision of price indices and cause discrepancy between price indices’ variation and correlative market information, therefore the representativeness of real-estate related price indices must be clarified. In this study, we observe the commonly used Sinyi Housing Price Index (existing housing) and Cathay Real-Estate Price Index(pre-sales and new housing), and discovered that Sinyi Housing Price Index is incapable of reflecting the recent boom in the real-estate market. The Granger Causality test result of these two housing price indices(HPI) is inconsequent to relevant theory and empirical studies, therefore attribute this to the error within the establishment of HPI. Then, we reestablish existing housing HPI of Taipei city and Taipei county by using government and enterprise organized data. In comparison to Sinyi Housing Price Index, our newly established HPI cohere with correlative market information. And last, for future application of real-estate market information, we integrate empirical studies in the past with ours and examine its lead-lag relation with Cathay Real-Estate Price Index. The Granger Causality test result corresponds to relevant theory and empirical studies, furthermore, we found that the time-gap between Cathay Real-Estate Price Index and the Integrated existing housing HPI in Taipei city is 1-season, and 2-season in Taipei county.

The primary goal of this study was to determine the impact of price discrimination on tourism demand. Four objectives were defined with reference to the primary research goal. The first objective was to analyse the concept of price discrimination and relevant theories by means of a literature study. In this regard it was found that price discrimination between markets is fairly common and that it occurs if the same goods were sold to different customers at different prices. Price discrimination is also possible as soon as some monopoly power exists and it is feasible when it is impossible or at least impractical for the buyers to trade among themselves. Three different kinds of price discrimination can be applied, namely first-degree, second-degree and third-degree price discrimination. The data also indicated that price discrimination is advantageous (it mainly increases profit) and that it has several other effects too. The second objective was to analyse examples of price discrimination by means of international case studies. In these different case studies it was found that demand and supply, therefore consumer and product, formed the basis of price discrimination. If demand did not exist, it would be impossible to apply price discrimination. The findings also indicated that, for an organisation to be able to practice price discrimination, the markets must be separated effectively and it will only be successful if there is a significant difference in demand elasticity between the different consumers. Furthermore, the ability to charge these different prices will depend on the consumer's ability and willingness to pay. If an organisation should decide to price discriminate, it would lead to a higher profit, a more optimal pricing policy and also to an increase in sales. The third objective was to analyse national case studies. This was done through comparing the data of a tourism organisation price discriminating (Mosetlha Bush Camp, situated in the North West) to two organisations that did not implement price discrimination (Kgalagadi Transfrontier Park in the Northern Cape and Golden Leopard Resort, also situated in the North West). It was found that a customer with low price elasticity is less deterred by a higher price than a customer with a high price elasticity of demand. As long as the customer's price elasticity is less than one, it will be very advantageous to increase the price: the seller will in this case get more money for less goods. With the increase in price the price elasticity tends to rise above one. The fourth objective was to draw conclusions and make recommendations. It was concluded that price discrimination could be applied successfully in virtually any organisation or industry. Furthermore, price discrimination does not always have a negative effect; but can have a positive ass well. It can have a positive effect on tourism demand. The findings emphasised that the main reason for implementing price discrimination is to increase profit at the cost of reducing consumer surplus. From the results it was recommended that more research on this topic should be conducted. / Thesis (M.Com. (Tourism))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2006.

This dissertation consists of four self-contained studies concentrating on the productivity development following major technological breakthroughs. All four studies are concerned with measurement issues of productivity. Three of the papers use a comparative historical perspective and primarily focus on some of the differences and similarities in productivity growth following each technological breakthrough. A fourth paper solely focuses on the ICT revolution and the problems associated with measuring productivity in the Swedish Radio, television and communication equipment (RTC) industry. Paper 1, Technological Breakthroughs and Productivity Growth (with Magnus Henrekson), examines productivity growth following three major technological breakthroughs: the steam power revolution, electrification and the ICT revolution. The distinction between sectors producing and sectors using the new technology is emphasized. A major finding for all breakthroughs is that there is a long lag from the time of the original invention until a substantial increase in the rate of productivity growth can be observed. There is also strong evidence of rapid price decreases for steam engines, electricity, electric motors and ICT products. However, there is no persuasive direct evidence that the steam engine producing industry and electric machinery had particularly high productivity growth rates. For the ICT revolution, the highest productivity growth rates are found in ICT-producing industries. It is argued that one explanation might be that hedonic price indexes are not used for the steam engine and the electric motor. Still, it is likely that the rate of technological development has been much more rapid during the ICT revolution as compared to any of the previous breakthroughs. In paper 2, Do Hedonic Price Indexes Change History? The Case of Electrification, I investigate whether hedonic price indexing would also have large effects on measured price and productivity during electrification. The hedonic methodology is used on historical data for electric motors in Sweden in 1900–35. The results show that PPI-deflated prices for electric motors decreased by 4.8 percent per year based on hedonic price indexes. This indicates that prices decreased considerably more for electric motors compared to total manufacturing. Annual labor productivity growth in Swedish electric machinery in 1919–29 becomes 12.1 percent if the hedonic deflators are used. Thus, there is strong evidence that productivity growth in the electric motor producing industry was very high during the 1920s. In contrast to Sweden, US annual labor productivity growth was only, according to current best estimates, 4.1 percent in electric machinery compared to 5.3 percent in manufacturing in 1919–29. However, hedonic price indexes were not used to calculate US productivity. Finally, it is shown that the price decreases for electric motors in the 1920s were not on par with the price decreases for ICT-equipment in the 1990s, even if hedonic indexing is used in both cases. Paper 3, Parallel Development? Productivity Growth Following Electrification and the ICT revolution, compares labor productivity growth and the contribution to labor productivity growth in Swedish manufacturing during electrification and the ICT revolution. The paper distinguishes between technology-producing, intensive and less intensive technology-using industries during these two technological breakthroughs. The results show that labor productivity growth and the overall contribution to labor productivity growth were considerably higher in technology-producing industries during the ICT revolution compared to electrification. For example, the relative contribution to labor productivity growth in manufacturing from the technology-producing industry was 3.4 percent in 1920–30 compared to 34.4 percent in 1993–2003. On the other hand, the relative contribution to aggregate labor productivity growth was considerably higher in intensive technology-using manufacturing industries during electrification. These findings have an important policy implication, namely that it is much more important how productivity is measured for ICT products in the 1990s than for electric motors in the 1920s. Paper 4, The Swedish ICT Miracle: Myth or Reality?, investigates productivity development in Sweden in the 1990s. The results show that much of the recorded Swedish surge in labor productivity was due to the spectacular growth of the Radio, television and communication equipment (RTC) industry. However, the productivity growth of the RTC industry is very sensitive to value added price deflators. Unlike Sweden, the US uses hedonic price indexes for semiconductors and microprocessors which are important intermediate inputs in the RTC industry. Estimates based on the US intermediate input price deflators for semiconductors and microprocessors suggest that the productivity growth of the Swedish RTC industry during the 1990s can be questioned. This implies that the productivity growth of total manufacturing has also been overestimated. The results for Sweden are also interesting for other countries such as Finland, Ireland and South Korea, where ICT-producing industries have contributed substantially to labor productivity growth / Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2006 S. 1-21: introduction and summary, s. 23-194: 4 papers

[Truncated abstract] This thesis examines informational efficiency and price discovery processes within the Perth housing market for the period 1988-2000 by utilising a rich source of Western Australian Valuer General’s Office (VGO) data. Fama’s (1970) classification of market efficiency as potentially weak form, semi-strong, or strong form has been a dominant paradigm in tests of market efficiency in many asset markets. While there are some parallels, the results of tests in this thesis suggest there are also limitations in applying this paradigm to housing markets. The institutional structure of housing markets dictates that a deeper recognition of important housing market characteristics is required. Efficiency in housing markets is desirable in that if prices provide accurate signals for purchase or disposition of real estate assets this will facilitate the correct allocation of scarce financial resources for housing services. The theory of efficient markets suggests that it is desirable for information diffusion processes in a large aggregate housing market to facilitate price corrections. In an efficient housing market, these processes can be observed and will enable housing units to be exchanged with an absence of market failure in all price and location segments. Throughout this thesis there is an emphasis on disaggregation of the Perth housing market both by price and location criteria. Results indicate that the Perth housing market is characterised by varying levels of informational inefficiency in both price and location segments and there are some important pricing-size influences.

A presente dissertação tem por objetivo estimar o grau de impacto da política monetária sobre alguns agregados monetários, tendo foco principalmente na evolução das taxas de inflação e no produto agregado. Para tanto, é discutida a estrutura teórica do Novo Consenso Macroeconômico, que fundamenta o Regime de Metas de Inflação (RMI), e apresentadas as características deste regime. Com o objetivo de elucidar o RMI no Brasil, é exposto o ambiente macroeconômico em que ele foi implantado e as suas características. Sobre o debate da conveniência da adoção do RMI, adotamos uma perspectiva pós-keynesiana, apresentando as críticas desta escola do pensamento econômico a este regime monetário. Para o caso brasileiro, estas críticas vão em direção à concepção de inflação que fundamenta esse regime monetário, à forma institucional adotada e à política monetária. Com o objetivo de esclarecer melhor as origens e fundamentos do RMI e suas críticas, apresentam-se as principais teorias de inflação existentes dentro do debate econômico e os principais regimes monetários. Com respeito aos aspectos quantitativos relacionados ao objetivo principal, apresenta-se um breve histórico da inflação brasileira pós-1999, faz-se uma análise do comportamento dos principais índices de inflação, apresentam-se os índices de referência para a meta inflacionária utilizados pelos países que adotaram o RMI e, por fim, expõe-se o efeito passthrough. Em relação ao crescimento econômico brasileiro pós-adoção do RMI, apresentam-se dados comparativos da evolução do PIB e da inflação brasileira com a de outros países, que adotaram ou não este regime monetário. Também é descrito o mecanismo de transmissão da política monetária na economia brasileira. Por fim, mostra-se a evidência do canal da taxa de juros da política monetária para a economia brasileira, por meio de um modelo de correção de erros, Vector Error Correction (VEC). / This dissertation aims to estimate the impact of monetary policy on some monetary aggregates, and focus mainly on the development of inflation and aggregate output. To this end, we discuss the theoretical framework of the New Macroeconomic Consensus, who moved the inflation targeting regime (RMI), and presented the characteristics of this regime. In order to elucidate the minimum wage in Brazil is exposed to the macroeconomic environment in which it was implemented and its characteristics. Debate on the desirability of the adoption of the RMI has adopted a post-Keynesian perspective, presenting the criticism of this school of economic thought in this monetary regime. For the Brazilian case, these criticisms go toward the design of inflation that underlies the monetary regime, the institutional form adopted and monetary policy. In order to clarify the origins and rationale of the RMI and its critics, presents the main existing theories of inflation in the economic debate and the main monetary regimes. With respect to quantitative aspects related to the main objective, we present a brief history of the Brazilian inflation after 1999, it is an analysis of the behavior of core inflation indices, we present the benchmarks for the inflation target used by countries that adopted the RMI, and finally, it exposes the passthrough effect. For the Brazilian economic growth after adoption of the RMI presents comparative data on GDP development and inflation in Brazil with other countries that have adopted or not this monetary regime. Also described the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in the Brazilian economy. Finally, it shows evidence of channel interest rate monetary policy for the Brazilian economy by means of a model error correction, Vector Error Correction (VEC).

A presente dissertação tem por objetivo estimar o grau de impacto da política monetária sobre alguns agregados monetários, tendo foco principalmente na evolução das taxas de inflação e no produto agregado. Para tanto, é discutida a estrutura teórica do Novo Consenso Macroeconômico, que fundamenta o Regime de Metas de Inflação (RMI), e apresentadas as características deste regime. Com o objetivo de elucidar o RMI no Brasil, é exposto o ambiente macroeconômico em que ele foi implantado e as suas características. Sobre o debate da conveniência da adoção do RMI, adotamos uma perspectiva pós-keynesiana, apresentando as críticas desta escola do pensamento econômico a este regime monetário. Para o caso brasileiro, estas críticas vão em direção à concepção de inflação que fundamenta esse regime monetário, à forma institucional adotada e à política monetária. Com o objetivo de esclarecer melhor as origens e fundamentos do RMI e suas críticas, apresentam-se as principais teorias de inflação existentes dentro do debate econômico e os principais regimes monetários. Com respeito aos aspectos quantitativos relacionados ao objetivo principal, apresenta-se um breve histórico da inflação brasileira pós-1999, faz-se uma análise do comportamento dos principais índices de inflação, apresentam-se os índices de referência para a meta inflacionária utilizados pelos países que adotaram o RMI e, por fim, expõe-se o efeito passthrough. Em relação ao crescimento econômico brasileiro pós-adoção do RMI, apresentam-se dados comparativos da evolução do PIB e da inflação brasileira com a de outros países, que adotaram ou não este regime monetário. Também é descrito o mecanismo de transmissão da política monetária na economia brasileira. Por fim, mostra-se a evidência do canal da taxa de juros da política monetária para a economia brasileira, por meio de um modelo de correção de erros, Vector Error Correction (VEC). / This dissertation aims to estimate the impact of monetary policy on some monetary aggregates, and focus mainly on the development of inflation and aggregate output. To this end, we discuss the theoretical framework of the New Macroeconomic Consensus, who moved the inflation targeting regime (RMI), and presented the characteristics of this regime. In order to elucidate the minimum wage in Brazil is exposed to the macroeconomic environment in which it was implemented and its characteristics. Debate on the desirability of the adoption of the RMI has adopted a post-Keynesian perspective, presenting the criticism of this school of economic thought in this monetary regime. For the Brazilian case, these criticisms go toward the design of inflation that underlies the monetary regime, the institutional form adopted and monetary policy. In order to clarify the origins and rationale of the RMI and its critics, presents the main existing theories of inflation in the economic debate and the main monetary regimes. With respect to quantitative aspects related to the main objective, we present a brief history of the Brazilian inflation after 1999, it is an analysis of the behavior of core inflation indices, we present the benchmarks for the inflation target used by countries that adopted the RMI, and finally, it exposes the passthrough effect. For the Brazilian economic growth after adoption of the RMI presents comparative data on GDP development and inflation in Brazil with other countries that have adopted or not this monetary regime. Also described the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in the Brazilian economy. Finally, it shows evidence of channel interest rate monetary policy for the Brazilian economy by means of a model error correction, Vector Error Correction (VEC).

Submitted by Irene Nascimento (irene.kessia@ufpe.br) on 2016-10-03T18:05:38Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: 66e71c371cc565284e70f40736c94386 (MD5) Tese - Álvaro Furtado - Doutorado em Economia - 2015 .pdf: 7465178 bytes, checksum: 392ded6aa77b9a39c8feaabe6e515406 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-10-03T18:05:38Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: 66e71c371cc565284e70f40736c94386 (MD5) Tese - Álvaro Furtado - Doutorado em Economia - 2015 .pdf: 7465178 bytes, checksum: 392ded6aa77b9a39c8feaabe6e515406 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-11-19 / CAPES / Motivado pelo forte aumento dos preços dos imóveis das cidades brasileiras verificado durante os anos 2000 e a partir do caso específico da cidade do Recife, esta tese objetiva analisar a dinâmica de preço das residências na referida cidade entre 2000 e 2012. Tal proposta é levada a efeito a partir de duas investigações específicas. Primeira, o trabalho constrói um índice de preços para o valor das residências a partir não só de pareamento nas características de variáveis estruturais, como também, de forma inédita na literatura, nas variáveis de amenidades locais para o nível de cidade (no caso a Cidade do Recife). Essa construção é aplicada à subdivisão geográfica da cidade (as regiões políticas administrativas (RPAs)) algo, na verdade, inexistente. Segunda, no sentido de obter evidências a respeito dos determinantes da variação destes preços, o trabalho aplica uma decomposição, devido a Firpo et al. (2006, 2007, 2009 e 2011), que permite mensurar a contribuição de variáveis estruturais e de amenidades locais ao nível de quantil da distribuição dos preços, aplicação inédita no estudo do diferencial dos preços no mercado de imóveis. Para tal, são utilizados dados do ITBI e de shapefiles de amenidades do período de 2000 a 2012. Os resultados obtidos, quanto ao índice de preços, indicam que a dinâmica de preço dos imóveis varia de acordo com a RPA analisada, indicando que inferências sobre o mercado de imóveis com base em preços médios dos imóveis (ou medidas de tendência central) podem não refletir a realidade analisada. Já quanto à decomposição, constata-se que o efeito preço e o efeito dotação, resultantes da decomposição, tem dinâmicas diferentes na mesma variável apenas alterando-se o quantil. O comportamento aos extremos da distribuição (quantil 0,10 e 0,90) é fortemente influenciado pelas características dos imóveis, em especial as intrínsecas, já entre os quantis 0,20 e 0,80 o ambiente por si só é que é o protagonista do diferencial de preço e neste caso as características dos imóveis contribuem para que o diferencial de preço não seja ainda maior, com destaque para a variável área privada. Tais evidências revelam que o comportamento médio da cidade não pode ser generalizado ao nível de RPA e nem muito menos pode ser generalizado para todas as estratificações da distribuição de preço. / Motivated by the strong increase in property prices occurred in Brazilian cities during the 2000s and from the specific case of the city of Recife, this thesis aims to analyze the dynamics of house price in that city between 2000 and 2012. This proposal is carried out from two specific investigations. First, the work builds a price index for the value of dwellings from not only matching the characteristics of structural variables, but also in an unprecedented way in the literature, the variables of local amenities for the city level (in this case the Recife City). This construction is applied to the official geographical subdivision of the city, the RPAs (the Administrative Policy Areas) something actually non-existent. Second, to obtain evidence about the determinants of variation of prices, this work applies a decomposition due to Firpo et al. (2006, 2007, 2009 and 2011), it allows to measure the contribution of structural variables and local amenities over distribution of prices for the level of quantile, it's a unprecedented application in the differential study of prices in the real estate market. To this end, we use the ITBI data from 2000 through 2012 and the shapefiles of amenities. The results obtained as to the price index, show that the dynamic of price of properties varies according to the analyzed RPA, indicating that inferences about the real estate market based on average prices of dwellings (or central tendency statistics) may not reflect the analyzed reality. In respect the results of the decomposition, it is found that the coefficient and endowment effects have different dynamics in the same variable only by changing the quantile. The behavior at the extremes of the price distribution (quantile 0.10 and 0.90) is strongly influenced by the characteristics of the property, especially the intrinsic characteristics. For the quantiles from 0.20 through 0.80 the environment it's who is the protagonist of the price differences. In this case the real estate features contribute to the price differential do not be high, especially the private area variable. Such evidences show that the average behavior of the city may not be generalized to the level of RPA and much less may be generalized to all stratifications of the price distribution.

Submitted by André Furtado Braz (andre.braz@fgv.br) on 2012-05-11T18:14:39Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Versão Final_André Braz.pdf: 728822 bytes, checksum: eb3a9ee3323bce96ed76b7dbb7ed3a48 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Vitor Souza (vitor.souza@fgv.br) on 2012-05-11T18:15:51Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Versão Final_André Braz.pdf: 728822 bytes, checksum: eb3a9ee3323bce96ed76b7dbb7ed3a48 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2012-05-17T20:16:44Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Versão Final_André Braz.pdf: 728822 bytes, checksum: eb3a9ee3323bce96ed76b7dbb7ed3a48 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-12-16 / Desde a implantação do sistema de metas de inflação em julho de 1999, o Banco Central (BC) tem utilizado para monitorar a política monetária um número crescente de indicadores, dentre os quais, incluem-se as medidas de núcleo de inflação. O objetivo é obter uma informação mais precisa sobre o curso da inflação no país e, consequentemente, sobre o futuro da política monetária. Além do Banco Central, muitas instituições financeiras utilizam medidas de núcleo para orientar suas estimativas em relação ao comportamento da inflação no país. Deste modo, esta dissertação faz uma avaliação dos núcleos de inflação utilizando os principais testes estatísticos e econométricos sugeridos pela literatura econômica e propõe ainda novos indicadores para o Brasil. / Since the implementation of inflation targeting system in July 1999, the Central Bank (BC) is used to monitor the monetary policy of a growing number of indicators, among which include measures of core inflation. The goal is to obtain more precise information about the course of inflation in the country and hence on the future of monetary policy. In addition to the Central Bank, many financial institutions use core measures to guide their expectations regarding the behavior of inflation in the country. Thus, this paper makes an assessment of core inflation using the main statistical and econometric tests suggested in the literature and proposes new economic indicators for Brazil.

There exists significant literature investigating the link between macroeconomic variables and stock market returns. Most previous studies utilise an overall stock market index to measure stock market returns, thereby aggregating a number of different industries into a single index. This research investigated the link between macroeconomic variables and a single sector’s share returns, being the Resources sector. The aim was to ascertain whether or not a correlation exists between the Resource Index of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange and four macroeconomic variables, namely: GDP, Inflation, Interest rates and the Rand/US Dollar Exchange Rate. Quarterly data for all 4 macroeconomic variables and the Resource Index was collected for the period 2002 to 2011 and tests of correlation performed between each macroeconomic variable and the Resource Index. The findings reveal that there is a positive correlation between GDP and resources share returns, a negative correlation between interest rates and resources share returns and a positive relationship between the Rand/US Dollar Exchange rate and resources share returns. The relationship between the inflation and the resource share returns proved inconclusive.Copyright / Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2012. / Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) / unrestricted