Este trabalho examina relações de preço e volatilidades entre os contratos futuros de soja em grão negociados nos Estados Unidos, China, Brasil e Argentina ao longo do período delimitado entre 2002 e 2011. Os principais resultados mostram que os preços norteamericanos ainda possuem um papel dominante para explicar as variações de preço nos mercados internacionais. Outros resultados também indicam conexões mais fortes entre os preços na bolsa chinesa de Dalian e nos demais mercados, especialmente após 2006. Esta constatação sugere que o mercado chinês se tornou mais integrado ao mercado global de soja em grão em anos recentes, o que reflete a crescente participação da China no comércio internacional da commodity e o desenvolvimento de seu contrato futuro. Em termos de transmissão de volatilidade, o contrato futuro norte-americano teve papel de referência ao promover o contágio para os mercados futuros de Brasil e Argentina em praticamente todos os intervalos de tempo definidos na pesquisa; além disso, movimentos de volatility spillover do mercado dos Estados Unidos para a bolsa chinesa de Dalian ocorreram somente entre 2009 e 2011, ratificando a maior conexão do mercado asiático nos últimos anos. Ainda, Brasil e Argentina mostraram fortes relações com o mercado chinês, fruto do estreitamento comercial, e ao mesmo tempo foram nitidamente impactados pela estrutura de preços e por choques ocorridos na bolsa norte-americana. A despeito da caracterização do contrato futuro dos Estados Unidos como líder na precificação da soja em âmbito mundial, o presente trabalho expõe a grande parcela de importância da bolsa chinesa na definição do preço eficiente de longo prazo da soja em grão, e confirma Brasil e Argentina como seguidores no sistema internacional de ajuste de preços. Através da comparação entre modelos com diferenças acerca da utilização de preços de fechamento ou de abertura da China, o conjunto com cotações de fechamento apresentou maior número de relações de preço e processos de transmissão de volatilidade significativos. A grande contribuição deste estudo corresponde ao resultado sintético de que os principais players do mercado internacional de soja em grão são bastante conectados através de movimentos de preços, volatilidades e fluxos de informação, e que as conexões entre eles se tornaram mais fortes com o passar dos últimos anos. Em termos de aplicação prática, o estudo apontou que os agentes do mercado internacional de soja em grão que acompanharem os movimentos do contrato futuro da China diariamente tendem a realizar transações mais eficientes e lucrativas. / This thesis examines price and volatility linkages between soybean futures contracts traded in United States, China, Brazil and Argentina for the period ranging from 2002 to 2011. The main findings show that U.S. prices still appear to have a dominant role to explain price changes in international markets. Results also indicate stronger linkages between prices in China and in other three markets, especially after 2006. This result suggests the Chinese market has become more integrated with soybean international markets in recent years, which might reflect the growing participation of China in international trade and the development of its soybean futures contract. Regarding volatility spillover, U.S. futures contract had reference position by promoting price contagion to the futures markets in Brazil and Argentina in almost all time intervals defined; moreover, volatility spillovers from U.S. market to Dalian futures market have been observed only from 2009 to 2011, confirming a stronger linkage between U.S. and Chinese markets in the last years. Besides, Brazil and Argentina have shown strong linkages with Chinese market, due to the trade relationship, and at the same time these countries have been impacted sharply by price structure and shocks from U.S. market. Despite the role of U.S. futures contract as a global leader in the soybean pricing process, this study presents the great importance of Chinese market to define the soybean efficient price in the long run, and it confirms Brazil and Argentina as followers in the international system of price adjustment. By comparing models with differences on the use of closing prices or opening prices from Chinese futures market, the set of closing prices presented the largest number of significant price linkages and volatility spillovers. According to the main contribution of this study, the major players in the soybean international market are highly linked through price movements, volatilities and information flow. Results also indicate that linkages between the soybean futures markets have become stronger over the last years. Regarding the practical application, the study pointed that the players of the soybean international market have to observe the movements in the Chinese futures contract daily to perform more efficient and profitable transactions.

Considerando a importância dos fatores financeiros nas decisões de investimento e as restrições financeiras das firmas, os intermediários financeiros mostram-se como importantes provedores de fonte de recursos para a viabilização dos investimentos. Devido a esta ligação, um possível canal de transmissão no qual o setor financeiro afeta o crescimento e risco das empresas ocorre pela dependência de recursos financeiros externos, portanto, o risco e retorno das firmas devem ser afetados pelas dificuldades das entidades financeiras. Atentando a esta circunstância o objetivo deste estudo é de verificar na economia brasileira os efeitos do alastramento de risco do setor financeiro para a economia real nas decisões de investimentos das firmas, as quais perpassam por conjunturas de restrição financeira. Para atingir tal objetivo utiliza-se informações financeiras e retorno das ações das empresas de capital aberto no Brasil no período de 1997 a 2015. O alastramento do risco do retorno é estimado por um processo VAR-GARCH, e o contágio financeiro pelo indicador de co-excessos condicionais. Essas variáveis são inseridas em um modelo neoclássico acelerador de investimento modificado, para um grupo de firmas restritas e outro de não restritas, classificadas pelos índices KZ e WW. A estimação do modelo de investimento é realizada pelo GMM system e os resultados mostram que o nível do alastramento do risco do setor financeiro para as firmas impacta negativamente nas taxas de investimento das empresas restritas tanto pelo índice KZ, quanto pelo WW. O estudo amplia a literatura nacional utilizando um enfoque microeconômico do alastramento do risco e dos co-excessos condicionais e abordando a questão do alastramento do risco no modelo de investimento. / Considering the importance of financial factors and financial constraints in firm\'s investment decisions, financial sector show up as important source of funds providers to the viability of industry investments. Because of this connection, a possible transmission channel in which the financial intermediaries affect firm\'s growth and risk is from the dependence on external financial funds, so the risk and return of firms should be affected by the difficulties and vagaries of financial sector. In accordance to this circumstance this study aim\'s to verify the effects of the financial sector risk spillover and contagion to the real economy in constrained, and unconstrained, firms\' investment decisions. To achieve this goal, we use financial data and stock returns of publicly traded companies in Brazil from 1997 to 2015. The risk spillover is estimated by a VAR-GARCH process, and financial contagion by an index called conditional co-exceedance. These variables are included in a modified neoclassical accelerator model of investment, splitting the observations into groups of constrained and unconstrained firms, classified by KZ and WW indexes. The estimation of the investment model is performed by GMM system, and the results show that the level of financial sector risk spillover negatively impact investment rates of constrained companies, both by the KZ and WW segregations. This study contributes to the national literature using a microeconomic approach to the risk spillover and conditional co-exceedances addressing it to the investment model.

Esta dissertação objetivou analisar como o conflito conjugal circula nas famílias, compreendendo seu papel no desenvolvimento da prole. Foi realizada uma revisão sistemática da literatura nacional e internacional dos últimos 10 anos sobre o efeito spillover. Os resultados apontam as consequências de conflitos construtivos e destrutivos para casais e filhos, além da escassez de publicações brasileiras sobre a temática. Em seguida realizou-se um estudo empírico com 179 famílias, analisando as opiniões e comportamentos de filhos e casais durante seus conflitos, através das escalas Conflict resolution styles inventory, Children’s perception of interparental conflict e Children’s action tendency scale. Encontrou-se que os filhos identificam os desentendimentos entre seus pais e que isso tem um impacto em seus sentimentos e atitudes. Houve associação entre a forma como casais e filhos encaminham seus conflitos. Refletiu-se sobre as possibilidades de prática nesse contexto, dada a importância sobre a temática para a saúde familiar. / This work aimed to analyze how marital conflict runs in families. A systematic review about the spillover effect was performed in national and international literature of the last 10 years. The results showed the consequences of constructive and destructive conflicts to couples and their offspring. It also points out the dearth of Brazilian publication in that area. Following, an empirical study was done with 179 families. The reports of children and couples about their disagreements and their behavior in these occasions were analyzed by Conflict resolution styles inventory, Children's perception of interparental conflict and Children's action tendency scale. Results showed that children identify disagreements between their parents and that this has an impact on their feelings and attitudes towards life. There was an association between the conflict resolution strategies of couples and children. The possibilities of work in this context were discussed, given the importance of the theme to family health.

1 Abstract This master thesis examines linkages among bond and stock markets in Ger- many, Austria and Italy. For the purpose of analysis of return spillovers, we use Spillover index framework which enables us to describe development of inter- market linkages over time. The data used in the study includes the period from January 2nd, 1998 to May 23rd, 2017 which allows us to estimate long- term development of spillovers among markets. We find unequal link between stocks and bonds and increase in co-integration of markets during the financial crisis of 2007-2008 with significant persistence after the crisis. Mechanism of transmission of financial shocks among European countries is affected by eco- nomic and political integration of countries. We identify strong interlinkages of markets with substantial influence of Italian assets in transmitting shocks to German and Austrian assets, especially during periods of economic distress. On the other hand, Germany represents an open economy that is increasingly integrated to other markets. Scale of return spillovers is highly dependent on economic situation which is evident from clustering of high spillovers during recessions and a great deal of persistence of these interdependencies. JEL Classification G01, G12, G15, C63, C67 Keywords return spillovers, asset...

This thesis aims to see how individual and partner’s unemployment affect self-rated depressive symptoms, both for individuals separately, and for individuals in a relationship within Europe. The research questions were examined by using European Social Survey (ESS) data from 2014. An index was created in order to capture the phenomena of depressive symptoms. To investigate the effect of unemployment in relation to self-rated depression, multiple regressions analysis were used. The results show that there is a relationship between unemployment and depressive symptoms, for both men and women. However, men tend to be affected by their own unemployment only, whereas evidence was found supporting that having an unemployed partner affect depressive symptoms in a negative way for women. Hence, women are a more vulnerable group on the labour market, because they are not only affected by their own labour market status, but also by the labour market status of their partners.

The present exploratory study examines family conflict style as a correlate of commitment to the family of origin in a one-stage random cluster sample of 200 university students between the ages of 18 and 25. The hypothesis rests on the theoretical assumption that family climate factors, such as conflict, influences commitment to the family of origin. I argue that family conflict style (adaptive or maladaptive) is associated with the level of commitment to the family of origin. Surveys are utilised to collect data in the present study which includes two scales, namely the Family Conflict Style Scale (FCS) and the Family Commitment Scale (FC). The Family Commitment Scale (FC) is an adaptation of Rusbult’s (1998) Investment Model Commitment scale and the Family Conflict Scale (FCS) is a new scale that was constructed for the purpose of the present study, derived from Gottman’s (1993) definitions of couple conflict styles, in order to examine conflict styles within a family and to examine the correlations to see whether family conflict style can be associated with commitment. The Family Resilience Framework (Walsh, 2003) and the Marital Spillover Hypothesis (Gerard, Krishnakumar & Buehler, 2009) guides the present study in better understanding how the constructs marital conflict style and commitment can also be viewed as systemic variables influencing the entire family. Results revealed that all correlations between conflict styles and commitment to the family of origin were found to be significant at the -.01 level. Findings support the value in exploring family conflict style in relation to commitment to the family of origin and, for the current sample, suggest that a more adaptive conflict style positively relates to the level of commitment whereas a maladaptive conflict style negatively relates to the level of commitment to the family of origin. / Dissertation (MEd)--University of Pretoria, 2014. / lk2014 / Educational Psychology / MEd / Unrestricted

Many econometric analyses of commodity futures over the years have been performed using spot or front month contract prices. Using such daily prices without the consideration of the associated contract traded volumes is slightly erroneous because, in reality, traders will typically trade the ‘most liquid’ contract, that is, the contract with the largest average daily volume (ADV). The reason for this is in order to gain the best price when buying or selling. If this ‘true’ time series is to be considered, a mapping procedure is required to account for the price jumps at the time when a trader trades out of the expiring contract and enters the new front month contract. A key finding was that this effect was significant, irrespective of the size of the price jump, sometimes referred to as basis or roll and also due to the accumulated roll over a number of years corresponding to multiple contracts. It was also found that the mapping procedure has a significant effect on the time series and should hence always be employed if the realistic traded time series is to be considered. Given this phenomenon, algorithmically-traded commodities futures must necessarily employ such time series when creating metrics or considering an econometric analysis. The key findings include the importance of diversification in algorithmically-traded portfolios, utilising the AOM and PSI metrics. The mapping of data sets to create realistic ‘live-traded’ time series was found to be significant, while the optimal day of roll over prior to contract expiry was found to be related to the trading volumes for certain commodities. Other key findings include the causalities and spillovers within the metals sector where various relationships are evident once the results were processed and analysed, both pre and post mapping. Interestingly, the key relationships including bidirectional volatility and shock spillovers between the four key metals existed when the unmapped data was used however, many of the feedbacks within these relationships was lost when the mapped data sets were considered. A significant finding was therefore the consistent differences in findings between mapped and unmapped data sets attributed to the optimisation or favourability of the models (whether econometric or algorithmic). This is due to the unmapped data including roll or basis (which the models are fitted to) taking into account the roll or basis and utilising them in finding relationships between data sets. In the mapped data set (the time series seen by traders) the roll or basis is accounted for and hence the relationships found stand in real-time trading situations. The differences in the results show how the effect of mapping can be significant with unmapped data sets displaying results which will not exist in a real time traded time series.

Work and family embody two of the most fundamental areas of adult life. The increased participation in the labour force of working women with children has had a major impact on the work and family interface. Theories of work and family have been incorporated to analyse potential relationships of conflict with undesirable work outcomes such as reduced job satisfaction and burnout. The study investigates whether work-family conflict ultimately leads to working women with children’s experiences of burnout and lower job satisfaction. The research study also explores the effects of the mother-role identity on the manifestation of family and work conflict in working women with children and posits that working women with children experience role salience differently from other working women without children. The study employed a quantitative research design using electronic self-administered questionnaires. Using the data from 545 employees in a fast-moving consumer goods industry showed that working women with children who identified closer with the mother-role identity, experienced greater work-family conflict. The mother-role identity forms a greater part of working women with children’s self than that of the employee-role identity and the results infer that role identity plays a significant role when conflict is experienced. In working women with children, strong relationships were found between family-work conflict and burnout, and moderate inverse relationships between work-family conflict and job satisfaction. Work-family conflict may ultimately lead working women with children to experience higher burnout and lower job satisfaction owing to their preoccupation with family-related responsibilities. The concept of role identity is introduced as a significant variable to consider into the work and family conflict investigation, as well as in the development of burnout and job satisfaction for working women with children. The current research also assists in understanding the work and family role integration of working women with children and provides a consolidated overview of the current work and family theories within a conceptual and unifying model. This research offers an explanatory model that outlines the relationship between the independent and dependent variables, by investigating the mechanisms by virtue of which such relationships exist. / Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2013. / Human Resource Management / unrestricted

This dissertation investigates the dynamics of mean and volatility spillovers from the U.S. and three large (regional) Asia-Pacific stock markets to ten small (local) ones from June 2008 to May 2013. After a brief introduction to the main purposes and contributions of my research in Chapter 1, I examine the impact of lagged American and regional returns on the local markets in Chapter 2. By building up a univariate autoregressive model and treating lagged U.S. and regional returns as exogenous variables, I find that the local markets have statistically significant exposure to lagged returns of their own and the U.S. market only. The empirical results suggest that lagged American returns have exerted considerable mean spillover impact upon most of the local markets, whereas the large Asia-Pacific markets involved in this study have few such impacts. I study the linkage between the U.S. market and each of the regional markets in Chapter 3 by employing two specifications of the bivariate GARCH process—the BEKK and general dynamic covariance (DC) models—to capture common features of equity return data. Based on the results of carefully constructed diagnostic tests, the BEKK model is demonstrated to be more appropriate for the U.S.–China and U.S.–Japan cases, and the dynamic covariance model for the U.S.–Australia case. In Chapter 4, I discuss time-varying correlation of a local market with the U.S. market and with each regional market by proposing three Markov-switching shock spillover models. A comparison of model performance is drawn based on a series of model selection criteria. In fourteen cases, the local market is found to be more sensitive to regional shocks. Disturbances from two regional markets account for a higher proportion of local variance than those of U.S. origin. I conclude that the regional center, although having little mean spillover effect upon the local markets, has become increasingly influential in volatility transmission. Possible extended studies in the future as well as main findings in the preceding chapters are summarized in Chapter 5.

This dissertation is attempting to estimate the effects of infrastructure on the economic performance in the sample of European countries. I created two models which try to estimate different impacts of infrastructure on the economy. First of them is based on the Cobb-Douglas production function which estimates the direct effect. Second, is the model based on the Holtz-Eakin and Schwartz approach which measures the spatial spillovereffect.