Within the framework of risk assessment and risk management, determination of the failure probability of dams plays an important role. In this paper, the probabilistic approach to hydraulic failure elaborated by the author in the nineties will be developed further and refined. Furthermore, it is shown how the random event “gate failure” can be taken into account when calculating the overtopping probability of barrages. / Im Rahmen von Risikobetrachtungen spielt die Bestimmung der Überflutungswahrscheinlichkeit eine wichtige Rolle. Im vorliegenden Beitrag wird der probabilistische Ansatz, welcher in den neunziger Jahren vom Autor erarbeitet worden ist, weiterentwickelt und modifiziert. Außerdem wird gezeigt, wie das zufällige Ereignis „Versagen von Verschlüssen“ in die Berechnung der Überflutungswahrscheinlichkeit von Stauanlagen einbezogen werden kann.

Within the framework of risk assessment and risk management, determination of the failure probability of dams plays an important role. In this paper, the probabilistic approach to hydraulic failure elaborated by the author in the nineties will be developed further and refined. Furthermore, it is shown how the random event “gate failure” can be taken into account when calculating the overtopping probability of barrages. / Im Rahmen von Risikobetrachtungen spielt die Bestimmung der Überflutungswahrscheinlichkeit eine wichtige Rolle. Im vorliegenden Beitrag wird der probabilistische Ansatz, welcher in den neunziger Jahren vom Autor erarbeitet worden ist, weiterentwickelt und modifiziert. Außerdem wird gezeigt, wie das zufällige Ereignis „Versagen von Verschlüssen“ in die Berechnung der Überflutungswahrscheinlichkeit von Stauanlagen einbezogen werden kann.

<p>Stochastic information, to be understood as &quot;information gained by the application of stochastic methods&quot;, is proposed as a tool in the assessment of changes in climate.</p> <p>This thesis aims at demonstrating that stochastic information can improve the consideration and reduction of uncertainty in the assessment of changes in climate. The thesis consists of three parts. In part one, an indicator is developed that allows the determination of the proximity to a critical threshold. In part two, the tolerable windows approach (TWA) is extended to a probabilistic TWA. In part three, an integrated assessment of changes in flooding probability due to climate change is conducted within the TWA.</p> <p>The thermohaline circulation (THC) is a circulation system in the North Atlantic, where the circulation may break down in a saddle-node bifurcation under the influence of climate change. Due to uncertainty in ocean models, it is currently very difficult to determine the distance of the THC to the bifurcation point. We propose a new indicator to determine the system's proximity to the bifurcation point by considering the THC as a stochastic system and using the information contained in the fluctuations of the circulation around the mean state. As the system is moved closer to the bifurcation point, the power spectrum of the overturning becomes &quot;redder&quot;, i.e. more energy is contained in the low frequencies. Since the spectral changes are a generic property of the saddle-node bifurcation, the method is not limited to the THC, but it could also be applicable to other systems, e.g. transitions in ecosystems. </p> <p>In part two, a probabilistic extension to the tolerable windows approach (TWA) is developed. In the TWA, the aim is to determine the complete set of emission strategies that are compatible with so-called guardrails. Guardrails are limits to impacts of climate change or to climate change itself. Therefore, the TWA determines the &quot;maneuvering space&quot; humanity has, if certain impacts of climate change are to be avoided. Due to uncertainty it is not possible to definitely exclude the impacts of climate change considered, but there will always be a certain probability of violating a guardrail. Therefore the TWA is extended to a probabilistic TWA that is able to consider &quot;probabilistic uncertainty&quot;, i.e. uncertainty that can be expressed as a probability distribution or uncertainty that arises through natural variability.</p> <p>As a first application, temperature guardrails are imposed, and the dependence of emission reduction strategies on probability distributions for climate sensitivities is investigated. The analysis suggests that it will be difficult to observe a temperature guardrail of 2&deg;C with high probabilities of actually meeting the target.</p> <p>In part three, an integrated assessment of changes in flooding probability due to climate change is conducted. A simple hydrological model is presented, as well as a downscaling scheme that allows the reconstruction of the spatio-temporal natural variability of temperature and precipitation. These are used to determine a probabilistic climate impact response function (CIRF), a function that allows the assessment of changes in probability of certain flood events under conditions of a changed climate. </p> <p>The assessment of changes in flooding probability is conducted in 83 major river basins. Not all floods can be considered: Events that either happen very fast, or affect only a very small area can not be considered, but large-scale flooding due to strong longer-lasting precipitation events can be considered. Finally, the probabilistic CIRFs obtained are used to determine emission corridors, where the guardrail is a limit to the fraction of world population that is affected by a predefined shift in probability of the 50-year flood event. This latter analysis has two main results. The uncertainty about regional changes in climate is still very high, and even small amounts of further climate change may lead to large changes in flooding probability in some river systems.</p> / <p>Stochastische Information, zu verstehen als &quot;Information, die durch die Anwendung stochastischer Methoden gewonnen wird&quot;, wird als Hilfsmittel in der Bewertung von Klima&auml;nderungen vorgeschlagen.</p> <p>Das Ziel dieser Doktorarbeit ist es, zu zeigen, dass stochastische Information die Ber&uuml;cksichtigung und Reduktion von Unsicherheit in der Bewertung des Klimawandels verbessern kann. Die Arbeit besteht aus drei Teilen. Im ersten Teil wird ein Indikator entwickelt, der die Bestimmung des Abstandes zu einem kritischen Grenzwert ermöglicht. Im zweiten Teil wird der &quot;tolerable windows approach&quot; (TWA) zu einem probabilistischen TWA erweitert. Im dritten Teil wird eine integrierte Absch&auml;tzung der Ver&auml;nderung von &Uuml;berflutungswahrscheinlichkeiten im Rahmen des TWA durchgeführt.</p> <p>Die thermohaline Zirkulation (THC) ist ein Zirkulationssystem im Nordatlantik, in dem die Zirkulation unter Einfluss des Klimawandels in einer Sattel-Knoten Bifurkation abreißen kann. Durch Unsicherheit in Ozeanmodellen ist es gegenw&auml;rtig kaum m&ouml;glich, den Abstand des Systems zum Bifurkationspunkt zu bestimmen. Wir schlagen einen neuen Indikator vor, der es erm&ouml;glicht, die N&auml;he des Systems zum Bifurkationspunkt zu bestimmen. Dabei wird die THC als stochastisches System angenommen, und die Informationen, die in den Fluktuationen der Zirkulation um den mittleren Zustand enthalten sind, ausgenutzt. Wenn das System auf den Bifurkationspunkt zubewegt wird, wird das Leistungsspektrum &quot;roter&quot;, d.h. die tiefen Frequenzen enthalten mehr Energie. Da diese spektralen Ver&auml;nderungen eine allgemeine Eigenschaft der Sattel-Knoten Bifurkation sind, ist die Methode nicht auf die THC beschränkt, sondern weitere Anwendungen k&ouml;nnten m&ouml;glich sein, beispielsweise zur Erkennung von &Uuml;berg&auml;ngen in &Ouml;kosystemen.</p> <p>Im zweiten Teil wird eine probabilistische Erweiterung des &quot;tolerable windows approach&quot; (TWA) entwickelt. Das Ziel des TWA ist die Bestimmung der Menge der Emissionsreduktionsstrategien, die mit sogenannten Leitplanken kompatibel sind. Diese Leitplanken sind Begrenzungen der Auswirkungen des Klimawandels, oder des Klimawandels selber. Der TWA bestimmt daher den Spielraum, den die Menschheit hat, wenn bestimmte Auswirkungen des Klimawandels vermieden werden sollen. Durch den Einfluss von Unsicherheit ist es aber nicht m&ouml;glich, die betrachteten Auswirkungen des Klimawandels mit Sicherheit auszuschlie&szlig;en, sondern es existiert eine gewisse Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass die Leitplanke verletzt wird. Der TWA wird daher zu einem probabilistischen TWA weiterentwickelt, der es erm&ouml;glicht, &quot;probabilistische Unsicherheit&quot;, also Unsicherheit, die durch eine Wahrscheinlichkeitsverteilung ausgedr&uuml;ckt werden kann, oder die durch den Einfluß von nat&uuml;rlicher Variabilit&auml;t entsteht, zu ber&uuml;cksichtigen.</p> <p>Als erste Anwendung werden Temperaturleitplanken betrachtet, und die Abh&auml;ngigkeit der Emissionsreduktionsstrategien von Wahrscheinlichkeitsverteilungen über die Klimasensitivit&auml;t wird bestimmt. Die Analyse ergibt, dass die Einhaltung einer Temperaturleitplanke von 2&deg;C sehr schwierig wird, wenn man hohe Wahrscheinlichkeiten des Einhaltens der Leitplanke fordert.</p> <p>Im dritten Teil wird eine integrierte Absch&auml;tzung der &Auml;nderungen von &Uuml;berflutungswahrscheinlichkeiten unter Einfluss des Klimawandels durchgef&uuml;hrt. Ein einfaches hydrologisches Modell wird vorgestellt, sowie ein Skalierungsansatz, der es erm&ouml;glicht, die raum-zeitliche nat&uuml;rliche Variabilit&auml;t von Temperatur und Niederschlag zu rekonstruieren. Diese werden zur Bestimmung einer probabilistischen Klimawirkungsfunktion genutzt, einer Funktion, die es erlaubt, die Ver&auml;nderungen der Wahrscheinlichkeit bestimmter &Uuml;berflutungsereignisse unter Einfluss von Klima&auml;nderungen abzusch&auml;tzen.</p> <p>Diese Untersuchung der Ver&auml;nderung von &Uuml;berflutungswahrscheinlichkeiten wird in 83 großen Flusseinzugsgebieten durchgef&uuml;hrt. Nicht alle Klassen von &Uuml;berflutungen k&ouml;nnen dabei ber&uuml;cksichtigt werden: Ereignisse, die entweder sehr schnell vonstatten gehen, oder die nur ein kleines Gebiet betreffen, k&ouml;nnen nicht ber&uuml;cksichtigt werden, aber großfl&auml;chige &Uuml;berflutungen, die durch starke, langanhaltende Regenf&auml;lle hervorgerufen werden, k&ouml;nnen ber&uuml;cksichtigt werden. Zuguterletzt werden die bestimmten Klimawirkungsfunktion dazu genutzt, Emissionskorridore zu bestimmen, bei denen die Leitplanken Begrenzungen des Bev&ouml;lkerungsanteils, der von einer bestimmten Ver&auml;nderung der Wahrscheinlichkeit eines 50-Jahres-Flutereignisses betroffen ist, sind. Letztere Untersuchung hat zwei Hauptergebnisse. Die Unsicherheit von regionalen Klima&auml;nderungen ist immer noch sehr hoch, und au&szlig;erdem k&ouml;nnen in einigen Flusssystemen schon kleine Klima&auml;nderungen zu gro&szlig;en &Auml;nderungen der &Uuml;berflutungswahrscheinlichkeit f&uuml;hren.</p>

The sheer volume as well as the schema complexity of today’s graph databases impede the users in formulating queries against these databases and often cause queries to “fail” by delivering empty answers. To support users in such situations, the concept of differential queries can be used to bridge the gap between an unexpected result (e.g. an empty result set) and the query intention of users. These queries deliver missing parts of a query graph and, therefore, work with such scenarios that require users to specify a query graph. Based on the discovered information about a missing query subgraph, users may understand which vertices and edges are the reasons for queries that unexpectedly return empty answers, and thus can reformulate the queries if needed. A study showed that the result sets of differential queries are often too large to be manually introspected by users and thus a reduction of the number of results and their ranking is required. To address these issues, we extend the concept of differential queries and introduce top-k differential queries that calculate the ranking based on users’ preferences and therefore significantly support the users’ understanding of query database management systems. The idea consists of assigning relevance weights to vertices or edges of a query graph by users that steer the graph search and are used in the scoring function for top-k differential results. Along with the novel concept of the top-k differential queries, we further propose a strategy for propagating relevance weights and we model the search along the most relevant paths.

No description available.

Over the past decades, climate change and urbanization have altered the regional hydro-environments, causing a series of stormwater management problems including urban flood and non-point pollution. Low impact development (LID) has been identified as a sustainable strategy for stormwater management. However, given the complex impacts of climate change and urbanization on hydro-environments, the performance of LID strategy under future changes remains largely unexplored. Accordingly, this research characterized the LID performance under changes in climate and urbanization. To provide an additional reference to sustainable stormwater management, the following specific topics were addressed: (1) Through hydraulic and water quality modeling, the LID performances of flood mitigation and pollution removal were systematically evaluated at the city scale. (2) Through uncertainty analysis, the impact of model parameter uncertainty on the LID performance was taken into account. (3) Through sensitivity analysis, the impact of LID technical parameters (e.g., surface features, soil textures) on the LID performance was quantified. (4) Through scenario analysis, the LID performances under different hydrological patterns were compared. (5) Through spatial analysis, the distribution of LID performance on different land-cover types was determined. (6) Through adopting general circulation model (GCM) projections, the LID performance under future climate scenarios with different representative concentration pathways (RCPs) was investigated. (7) Through adopting integrated assessment model (IAM) projections, the LID performance under future urbanization scenarios with different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) was explored. (8) By coupling climate and urbanization projections with land-cover distribution, the spatiotemporal trends of LID performance in the future were characterized.:Table of Contents List of Abbreviations VII List of Peer-Reviewed Publications on the Ph.D. Topic IX List of Co-authored Peer-Reviewed Publications on the Ph.D. Topic X 1 General Introduction 1 1.1 Background 1 1.2 Objectives 3 1.3 Innovation and Contribution to the Knowledge 3 1.4 Outline of the Dissertation 4 1.5 References 5 2 Literature Review 9 2.1 Hydraulic and Water Quality Modeling 9 2.1.1 Hydraulic Model 9 2.1.2 Water Quality Model 10 2.2 Low Impact Development (LID) 10 2.2.1 LID Practice 10 2.2.2 LID Performance 11 2.3 Performance Evaluation 13 2.3.1 Scenario Analysis 13 2.3.2 Spatial Analysis 13 2.3.3 Uncertainty Analysis 14 2.3.4 Sensitivity Analysis 14 2.4 Future Changes in Climate and Urbanization 15 2.4.1 Climate Change 15 2.4.2 Future Urbanization 16 2.5 References 17 3 Impact of Technical Factors on LID Performance 27 3.1 Introduction 28 3.2 Methods 30 3.2.1 Study Area 30 3.2.2 Model Description 31 3.2.2.1 Model Theory 31 3.2.2.2 Model Construction 31 3.2.2.3 Model Calibration and Validation 32 3.2.2.4 Model Uncertainty Analysis by GLUE Method 34 3.2.3 Hydrological Pattern Design 35 3.2.4 LID Strategy Design 35 3.2.4.1 Implementation of LID Practices 35 3.2.4.2 Sensitivity Analysis by Sobol’s Method 36 3.2.5 Correlation Analysis Using a Self-Organizing Map 37 3.2.6 Description of the RDS Load Components 37 3.3 Results 38 3.3.1 RDS Migration and Distribution in Baseline Strategy 38 3.3.1.1 RDS Migration under Hydrological Scenarios 38 3.3.1.2 RDS Distribution on Land-Cover Types 39 3.3.2 RDS Removal in LID Strategies 40 3.3.2.1 RDS Removal by LID Strategies 40 3.3.2.2 Spatial Distribution of the RDS Removal 42 3.3.2.3 LID Parameter Sensitivity Analysis Result 43 3.4 Discussion 45 3.4.1 Factors Influencing RDS Migration in the Baseline Strategy 45 3.4.2 RDS Removal Performance by LID Strategy 46 3.5 Conclusions 47 3.6 References 47 4 Impact of Hydro-Environmental Factors on LID Performance 53 4.1 Introduction 54 4.2 Methods 56 4.2.1 Study Area 56 4.2.2 Modeling Approach 56 4.2.2.1 Model Theory 56 4.2.2.2 Model Construction 56 4.2.2.3 Model Calibration and Validation 57 4.2.2.4 Model Uncertainty Analysis 57 4.2.3 LID Performance Analysis 58 4.2.3.1 LID Practice Implementation 58 4.2.3.2 LID Performance Evaluation 58 4.2.4 Hydrological Pattern Analysis 59 4.2.4.1 Scenario of ADP Length 59 4.2.4.2 Scenario of Rainfall Magnitude 59 4.2.4.3 Scenario of Long-Term pre-Simulation 60 4.2.5 Sensitivity Analysis of Hydrological Scenarios 60 4.3 Results 61 4.3.1 LID Performance under Different ADP Lengths 61 4.3.2 LID Performance under Different Rainfall Magnitudes 62 4.3.3 Spatial Distribution of LID Performance 63 4.3.4 Sensitivities of LID Performance to ADP Length and Rainfall Magnitude 66 4.4 Discussion 68 4.4.1 Impact of ADP Length and Rainfall Magnitude on LID Performance 68 4.4.2 Spatial Heterogeneity of LID Performance 68 4.4.3 Research Implications 69 4.5 Conclusions 70 4.6 References 71 5 Impact of Future Climate Patterns on LID Performance 77 5.1 Introduction 78 5.2 Methods 80 5.2.1 Study Area 80 5.2.2 Hydraulic and Water Quality Model 80 5.2.2.1 Model Development 80 5.2.2.2 Model Calibration and Validation 81 5.2.3 Climate Change Scenario Analysis 81 5.2.3.1 GCM Evaluation 81 5.2.3.2 Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Concentration Scenario 82 5.2.3.3 GCM Downscaling 83 5.2.4 LID Performance Analysis 83 5.2.4.1 Implementation of LID Practices 83 5.2.4.2 Evaluation of LID Performance 84 5.2.4.3 Sensitivity Analysis on LID Performance 86 5.3 Results 86 5.3.1 Hydrological Characteristics under Future Climate Scenarios 86 5.3.2 LID Performance under Future Climate Scenarios 87 5.3.2.1 LID Short-Term Performance 87 5.3.2.2 LID Long-Term Performance 90 5.3.3 Impact of ADP Length and Rainfall Magnitude on LID Performance 92 5.3.3.1 LID Performance Uncertainty 92 5.3.3.2 Spatial Distribution of LID Performance 93 5.3.3.3 Sensitivity of LID Performance to Climate Change 95 5.4 Discussion 97 5.4.1 LID Performance in Short-Term Extremes and Long-Term Events 97 5.4.2 Impact of Climate Change on LID Performance 97 5.4.3 Research Implications 99 5.5 Conclusions 100 5.6 References 100 6 Impact of Climate and Urbanization Changes on LID Perfor-mance 109 6.1 Introduction 110 6.2 Methods 112 6.2.1 Study Area 112 6.2.2 Modeling Approach 112 6.2.2.1 Model Development 112 6.2.2.2 Model Calibration and Validation 113 6.2.3 Future Scenario Derivation 113 6.2.3.1 Climate Change Scenario 113 6.2.3.2 Urbanization Scenario 115 6.2.4 Flood Exposure Assessment 115 6.2.5 Implementation and Evaluation of LID Strategy 117 6.2.5.1 Implementation Scheme of LID Strategy 117 6.2.5.2 Performance Evaluation of LID Strategy 117 6.3 Results 118 6.3.1 Flood Exposure in Baseline and Future Scenarios 118 6.3.1.1 Hydrological Change in Future Climate Scenarios 118 6.3.1.2 Catchment Change in Future Urbanization Scenarios 118 6.3.1.3 Population and GDP Exposures to Flood in Future 121 6.3.2 Flood Exposure with Consideration of LID Strategy 123 6.3.2.1 Runoff Mitigation Performance of LID Strategy 123 6.3.2.2 Peak Mitigation Performance of LID Strategy 124 6.3.2.3 Population and GDP Exposures to Flood under LID Strategy 125 6.4 Discussion 126 6.4.1 Climate Change and Urbanization Exacerbated Flood Exposure Risk 126 6.4.2 LID Strategy Mitigated Flood Exposure Risk 126 6.5 Conclusions 127 6.6 References 127 7 Discussion and General Conclusions 133 7.1 Stormwater Management Performance of LID Strategy 133 7.2 Impact of Influencing Factors on LID Performance 134 7.3 LID Performance under Future Changes 135 7.4 Research Implications 136 7.5 References 137 8 Outlook of Future Research 139 8.1 Optimization of LID Performance 139 8.2 Cross-regional Study on Future Changes 139 8.3 Macro-scale Flood Risk Management 140 8.4 References 141 9 Appendices 143 9.1 Appendix for Chapter 3 143 9.1.1 The Determination of the GLUE Criteria 143 9.1.2 Model Uncertainty Analysis 143 9.1.3 The LID Installation Location 144 9.1.4 Figures 145 9.1.5 Tables 147 9.2 Appendix for Chapter 4 153 9.2.1 Scenario of Long-term pre-Simulation 153 9.2.2 Figures 153 9.2.3 Tables 158 9.3 Appendix for Chapter 5 164 9.3.1 Tables 164 9.4 Appendix for Chapter 6 169 9.4.1 Figures 169 9.4.2 Tables 170 9.5 Data Source 177 9.6 References 178

Empty answers are a major problem by processing pattern matching queries in graph databases. Especially, there can be multiple reasons why a query failed. To support users in such situations, differential queries can be used that deliver missing parts of a graph query. Multiple heuristics are proposed for differential queries, which reduce the search space. Although they are successful in increasing the performance, they can discard query subgraphs relevant to a user. To address this issue, the authors extend the concept of differential queries and introduce top-k differential queries that calculate the ranking based on users’ preferences and significantly support the users’ understanding of query database management systems. A user assigns relevance weights to elements of a graph query that steer the search and are used for the ranking. In this paper the authors propose different strategies for selection of relevance weights and their propagation. As a result, the search is modelled along the most relevant paths. The authors evaluate their solution and both strategies on the DBpedia data graph.

Das Ziel der vorliegenden Arbeit ist die ausführliche Analyse und Beschreibung langfristiger abiotischer Standortbedingungen von Fluss und Grundwasser für das in einem Hartholzauenwald gelegene Untersuchungsgebiet im Naturschutzgebiet Saalberghau an der Mittleren Elbe bei Dessau. Hierzu erfolgt zunächst die Entwicklung eines allgemeinen Konzeptes, dass die Modellierung des Fluss- und des Grundwasserregimes sowie die statistische Auswertung dieser miteinander verbundenen Regime umfasst. Es wird davon ausgegangen, dass nur eine Synthese dieser Einzelbausteine die Grundlage für eine zusammenhängende Analyse und Beschreibung der komplexen auentypischen Dynamik dieser beiden Regime anhand objektivierbarer statistischer Parameter bilden kann. Darüberhinaus stellt die Zielsetzung auf langfristige Aussagen eine unentbehrliche Voraussetzung dar, um das Zeitspektrum der hier zu betrachtenden Altbäume typischer Hartholzauenbaumarten adäquat berücksichtigen zu können. / The present dissertation aims at a detailed analysis and description of the long-term abiotic site conditions (river flow and groundwater) for the floodplain area under investigation, namely a hardwood forest in the nature reserve &amp;quot;Saalberghau&amp;quot; on the Middle Elbe close to the town Dessau. For this purpose, firstly a general concept which covers the modelling of the surface water and groundwater regime as well as a statistical interpretation of these two interconnected regimes is developed. It is assumed that only a synthesis of those separate modules can form a sufficient basis for a cohering analysis and description of the complex dynamics of these two regimes in floodplain forests by means of objective statistic parameters. Furthermore, only longterm statements can take into account the age spectrum of the hardwood stand.

No description available.

Das Ziel der vorliegenden Arbeit ist die ausführliche Analyse und Beschreibung langfristiger abiotischer Standortbedingungen von Fluss und Grundwasser für das in einem Hartholzauenwald gelegene Untersuchungsgebiet im Naturschutzgebiet Saalberghau an der Mittleren Elbe bei Dessau. Hierzu erfolgt zunächst die Entwicklung eines allgemeinen Konzeptes, dass die Modellierung des Fluss- und des Grundwasserregimes sowie die statistische Auswertung dieser miteinander verbundenen Regime umfasst. Es wird davon ausgegangen, dass nur eine Synthese dieser Einzelbausteine die Grundlage für eine zusammenhängende Analyse und Beschreibung der komplexen auentypischen Dynamik dieser beiden Regime anhand objektivierbarer statistischer Parameter bilden kann. Darüberhinaus stellt die Zielsetzung auf langfristige Aussagen eine unentbehrliche Voraussetzung dar, um das Zeitspektrum der hier zu betrachtenden Altbäume typischer Hartholzauenbaumarten adäquat berücksichtigen zu können. / The present dissertation aims at a detailed analysis and description of the long-term abiotic site conditions (river flow and groundwater) for the floodplain area under investigation, namely a hardwood forest in the nature reserve &amp;quot;Saalberghau&amp;quot; on the Middle Elbe close to the town Dessau. For this purpose, firstly a general concept which covers the modelling of the surface water and groundwater regime as well as a statistical interpretation of these two interconnected regimes is developed. It is assumed that only a synthesis of those separate modules can form a sufficient basis for a cohering analysis and description of the complex dynamics of these two regimes in floodplain forests by means of objective statistic parameters. Furthermore, only longterm statements can take into account the age spectrum of the hardwood stand.