我國資本市場發展，一向偏重於集中交易市場，造成資本市場籌碼有限，游資相率投 入競價市場投機買賣，其應有之功能卻遭扭區。另一方面，中小企業因未達上市標準 ，而無法藉由資本市場籌資以改善財務結構並壯大生產規模：已上市之重整公司，下 市後卻無正規之流通市場，未上市公司之股票亦因此而無法自然形成價格，造成地下 店頭市場之猖獗，問題叢生。 我國債券店頭市場規模始終不大，個人投資者極少參與；股票店頭市場則尚在萌芽階 段，規章制度尚未完備。 本文採次級研究方法，共分七章，第一章緒論，說明研究動機與目的；第二章論述我 國證券店頭市場應有之功能，以便證券店頭市場之定位；第三章闡述我國證券店頭市 場之回顧及現況，在現況方面分別依(一)管理機標－證券商業公會，(二)店頭發行市 場，(三)店頭流通市場，加以談論；第四章比較中、美、日三國店頭市場制度上之異 同；第五章對我國店頭市場作出檢討與建議；第六章為確保店頭市場應有功能之發揮 及其可行性，特論店頭市場秩序紀律之維護；第七章為結論與建議。以下是本文之研 究架標。 研究架標 證券店頭市場 應有功能之探討 我國證券店頭市場現況之研究 •組織系統 •有關法令 •實際運作 •已發生及潛在問題探究 美國、日本証券店頭市場之比較 健全之道 集中交易市場之經驗 是否有助於證券店頭市場功能之發揮 是 確保可行性 秩序與紀律之維護證券店頭市場 結 論

本文之目的在於分析台灣與中國雙邊貿易之主要決定因素，並深入探討造成台灣對中國長期出現大量順差的主要原因。本文之實證模型與過去文獻主要差異在於分別就進出口供給與需求建立聯立方程式，推導成縮減式，分析進出口供需的相互影響。在台灣出口供給方面，本文考慮了國內投入、進口中間投入、台灣外人直接投資(FDI)及研發創新等因素。在台灣進口需求方面，除了考慮實質所得、雙邊匯率，本文也考慮了第三國匯率及雙向FDI之影響。 本文實證分析採用自1996年1月至2009年12月期間月資料。實證結果顯示雙邊實質所得、台灣對中國直接投資與台灣研發創新的確皆造成台灣對中國進出口之增加。然而，各國對台灣直接投資，卻造成台灣對中國進出口的減少。至於實質匯率的結果，在台灣對中國之出口方面，當新台幣相對於人民幣貶值，確實造成對中國出口增加。在中國市場，第三國價格相對中國價格上揚，造成台灣對中國出口有負向影響，此顯示台灣出口財與第三國出口財為互補關係。在台灣自中國之進口方面，當新台幣相對於人民幣貶值，的確造成自中國進口減少。在台灣市場，第三國價格相對於台灣價格上揚，造成台灣自中國進口有正向影響，表中國出口財與第三國出口財為替代關係。此外，本文發現，進口中間投入的相對價格上揚，將造成台灣自中國進口減少。 總而言之，本文研究結果顯示，除了實質所得以及雙邊匯率之外，第三國匯率、雙向FDI以及研發在兩岸進出口貿易上也扮演相當重要角色。此結果有助於瞭解台灣對中國持續順差之背後原因。 / The objective of this study is to analyze the main determinants of bilateral trade across the Taiwan Straits with a view toward exploring the causes of the Taiwan’s persistent large trade surplus with China. Our empirical model differs from most previous studies in the following aspects: we construct a system of equations to examine the demand-supply relationship ; on the supply side, the effects of inward FDI, the cost of intermediate imports on Taiwan’s production and R&D innovation are considered ; on the demand side, in additional to bilateral real exchange rates and real income, this paper also considers the indirect effects of exchange rate of third countries and bilateral FDI. The data covering January, 1996 to December, 2009 are used in our empirical analysis. The empirical evidence indicates that the bilateral real income, Taiwan’s real direct investment to China and R&D innovation have positive effects on Taiwan’s exports towards and imports from China, however, the inward FDI to Taiwan presents negative effects. As for real exchange rate, it appears that Taiwan’s export to China would increase along with the real depreciation of the NTD against the RMB. In addition, the rising relative price of the third country against the price of China would result in a negative effect of Taiwan’s export to China, representing that the goods of Taiwan and the third country are complements. On the other hand, Taiwan’s import from China would decrease along with the real depreciation of the NTD against the RMB. In addition, the rising relative price of the third country against the price of Taiwan would bring about a positive effect of Taiwan’s import from China. This reveals that the goods of China and the third country are substitutes. Moreover, a negative effect on the import of Taiwan from China appears when the cost of intermediate imports of Taiwan increases. In sum, this study illustrates that, in addition to real income and bilateral exchange rates, the exchange rates of third countries, FDI inflows and outflows and innovation have also played an important role in determining bilateral trade across the Taiwan Straits. It will help understand the driving forces behind Taiwan’s persistent trade surplus against China.

無論是沙皇政權或是蘇維埃政權，都會在侵略併吞而來的土地上實行俄化或是蘇維埃化的政策，希望能建立一個大一統的國家，創造一個享有共同文化、共同語言、甚至是有共同認同的民族。但是，1991年蘇聯的解體，不只打破了蘇共創造「蘇維埃民族」的美夢，還證明了蘇聯民族政策的嚴重錯誤。 19世紀以前，進入波海地區的俄羅斯人數量並不多。19世紀之後，沙皇政府開始在此區實行大規模的俄化，並開始將大批的俄羅斯人遷移至此。從第一次世界大戰以後到第二次世界大戰這段期間，波海三國享有了一段短暫的獨立國家時期。這個時期，基本上，波海三國對其境內的俄羅斯人是採取尊重的態度。第二次世界大戰爆發，因為德蘇密約的簽訂，使波海三國再次地被蘇聯併吞。史達林佔領波海三國之後，立刻大規模地流放波海三國的人民，並將大批的俄羅斯人引進，使愛沙尼亞與拉脫維亞兩國在人口統計學上的俄化情形十分嚴重。 1985年戈巴契夫上台以後，波海三國利用改革的機會，追求獨立，最後，以非暴力的方式獲得成功，重建獨立國家。波海三國獨立以後，俄羅斯人的地位有了很大的改變，一下子從優勢的統治地位變成弱勢的少數民族。愛沙尼亞與拉脫維亞因為懷疑俄羅斯人的忠誠度以及擔心會被滅族，所以採取了排外的公民權法，使大部分的俄羅斯人都無法獲得公民權。另外，因為大部分的俄羅斯人都不會說愛沙尼亞語或拉脫維亞語，所以不僅在取得公民權上有困難，在經濟與社會處境上也變得比較差。至於俄羅斯人的認同，可以說是複雜的。大多數的俄羅斯人在政治上是對所居住的共和國忠誠，在文化上還是認為自己是屬於俄羅斯文化的一部份。至於立陶宛，賦予境內大部分的俄羅斯人公民權，因此，立陶宛的族群關係較緩和。 俄羅斯政府自認為是境外俄羅斯人權益的捍衛者，但是，對於波海三國的少數民族政策所能造成的影響並不大。相反地，西方政府的批評與建議常常能成功地影響波海三國的決策。主要的原因在於波海三國急切地想回歸歐洲、西方政府與組織能提供援助、滿足國家安全需求與歐安組織派遣使節到愛、拉兩國。 / No matter what it was the Czar’s regime or the Soviet government, it would always implement a policy of Russification or Sovietization on invaded lands, in order to establish a united nation with common culture, shared the same language and national identity. However, since the breaking down of the Soviet Union in 1991, not only the dream of the ‘Soviet People’ broke down, but it also suggested a misleading of ethnic-national policy. Before the 19th century, there were not many Russians in the Baltic area. After the 19th century, the Czar’s regime started to implement the policy of Russification on a large scale, and it also moved many Russians to settle there. During the period of the First World War and the Second World War, the Baltic States had enjoyed a short period as independent nations. In this period, the Baltic States basically treated the Russians within their states with respect. Because Germany and Russia had signed a treaty before the Second World War, therefore, when the war erupted, the Baltic States were once again occupied by the Russia. After Stalin took over the Baltic States, he exiles people from the Baltic States on a large scale, while moving many Russians into these countries. As a result, Estonia and Latvia were seriously Russificated demogranphically. In 1985, Gorbachev gained the power. While the Russia government was reforming its political entity, the Baltic States seized the opportunity to go independent. They successfully gained their independence through non-violent method and rebuild themselves as independent states. Ever since the Baltic States became independent, the status of the Russians within their regions had changed rapidly. The Russians were once the dominant ruling class and suddenly became the ruled minority. Estonia and Latvia are concerned with the issues of royalty of the Russian people, also they were worried that they would become extinct as an ethnic group, therefore, they adopted an exclusive citizenship laws. Because most of the Russians could not speak Estonian and Latvian languages, therefore, they had difficulties to acquire the citizenship and they also did poorly financially and politically within these two nations. As for the notion of the Russian identity, it was a very complicated issue. Most Russians are politically royal to the Republics they reside, but culturally they still considered themselves as part of the Russian culture. In Lithuania, it granted most of the Russians that reside in its nation the citizenship; therefore, the ethnic relationship within the country was less tense comparatively. Russian government always views itself as the protector of the rights of its people that reside in other countries. However, this does not affect the policies regarding the minority in the Baltic States. On the other hand, the criticism and suggestions from the western governments can often affect the process of the policy-making in the Baltic States. The main reason is that the Baltic States are eager to return to Europe, and they can acquire aids from the western governments and organizations, securing their nations. Another reason is Estonia and Latvia hopefully get rid of the representatives from OSCE as soon as possible.

University of Macau / Faculty of Arts and Humanities / Department of Chinese