「預測市場」以未來事件為交易標的，透過網路平台彙整即時資訊，運用價格來判斷未來事件的發展，此研究方法同時具有「適當獎懲」與「連續修正」兩項特性。 本研究以文獻分析途徑探究預測市場在不同交易機制下的運作方式與市場價格決定過程，並據此分析不同交易機制之間的差異與影響預測市場運作的因素；除此之外，本研究另以個案研究途徑來探討「連續雙向拍賣」與「市場計分法則」兩個交易機制在價格準確度、市場流動性、價格炒作、參與誘因與莊家風險之間的差異。 本研究發現：若交易機制是連續雙向拍賣，則「0-100型」合約價格的預測準確度較高；若交易機制是市場計分法則，則「落點預測型」合約價格的預測準確度較高。連續雙向拍賣機制具有市場流動性不足的問題；市場計分法則機制面臨莊家風險的危機且不適用於市場競爭度高的環境；而上述兩種交易機制皆會出現價格炒作的現象。 / “Prediction market” is a research method based on immediate information collecting and organizing on the internet platform. With future events as the object of transaction, variations of the price of each transaction thus immediately provide the prediction of the development of future events. Therefore, this method has two properties including “appropriate incentives” and “continuous correction”. In this study, document analysis is first conducted to review the operation modes of different trading mechanisms for prediction markets and the process of price making. Accordingly, differences between trading mechanisms and the factors that affect the operation of prediction market will also be analyzed. Furthermore, comparisons of the price accuracy, market liquidity, price speculation, incentives and maker risks between "continuous double auction" and "market scoring rule" are discussed in case study. The findings of this study: if the trading mechanism is “continuous double auction”, the price accuracy of “winner-take-all” contract is higher; if the trading mechanism is “market scoring rules”, the price accuracy of “index” contract is higher. There exists insufficient market liquidity in “continuous double auction;” while in “market scoring rule,” there exists maker risks and it is hard to be applied in highly competitive market. The phenomenon of price speculation exits in both trading mechanisms.

本研究主要目的在探討2010年台北市長大選，台北市女性選民個人社會背景特徵、投票取向因素及投票行為，並分析影響台北市女性選民投票行為的最重要因素。 本研究採用二手資料分析法，資料係採自2009年至2012年「台灣選舉與民主化調查」三年期研究規劃（2/3）：民國九十九年直轄市市長選舉面訪案(TEDS 2010C): NSC 99-2420-H-031-002，使用次數分配（Frequencies）、卡方檢定（Chi-square test）、t檢定（t-test）及變異數分析（Analysis of variance, ANOVA）及洛基迴歸模型（Logistic Regression Model）等統計方法分析資料並詮釋之。 經統計分析後主要研究發現： 一、本研究發現台北市選民在政治知識、政黨認同、候選人評價、所重視議題誰最能代表、市長施政滿意度等投票取向上，女性與男性選民有差異性。但在投票抉擇上，男女都是投給郝龍斌最多，只是比例上有差異；而政黨認同及候選人評價差距等二項變項，皆為影響台北市女性選民及男性選民投票行為的主要因素。 二、就全體受訪台北市女性選民而言，本研究所提出的省籍、收入、族群認同、政黨認同、候選人評價差距、候選人情感溫度計、所重視議題誰最能代表、整體市長施政滿意度及綜合各項施政滿意度等變項，個別單獨與投票行為進行分析均達統計上的顯著關聯性，可見上述變項皆有可能影響台北市女性選民的投票行為。將諸多變項一同納入模型比較其相對影響力時，發現「政黨認同」及「候選人評價差距」等二項變項最具影響力。 三、台北市女性選民的省籍、收入、族群認同等人口學的變項，個別與其投票行為均有顯著的關聯性，但經與其他社會心理學的變項，例如政黨認同、候選人評價等，以洛基迴歸模型進行相對影響力分析，發現這些變項顯然不如社會心理學的變項來得有顯著性。因此，密西根學派所提出的社會心理學研究途徑，相較於哥倫比亞學派所提出的社會學研究途徑，對台北市女性選民的投票行為更具有解釋力或預測力。 / This study aimed to explore the social background characteristics, voting orientations, and voting behavior of female voters in Taipei City during the 2010 Taipei Mayoral Election and analyze the most important factors which influenced the voting behavior of female voters in Taipei City. The analysis method adopted by this study was the secondary analysis. The data were retrieved from the “Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study” of a 3-year research project from 2009 to 2012 (2/3): The Survey Project of 2010 Municipal Mayoral Election (TEDS 2010C): NSC 99-2420-H-031-002. Statistical analysis methods such as frequencies, Chi-square test, t-test, Analysis of variance (ANOVA), and logistic regression model were applied to the data and the results were interpreted. After the statistical analyses were performed, the findings are summarized below: 1. Female and male voters in Taipei City were different in political knowledge, party identification, candidate evaluation, which candidate can represent the voters concerned issue, and satisfaction of mayoral’s performance. However, in the aspect of whom to vote, both male and female voters mostly voted for Lung-bin Hau, though with different percentages. The key factors which influenced the voting behavior of female and male voters in Taipei City included two variables: party identification and candidate evaluation. 2. For the interviewed female voters in Taipei City, variables proposed by this study, including province of origin, income, ethnic group identification, party identification, candidate evaluation difference, candidate feeling thermometer, which candidate can represent the voter’s concerned issue, satisfaction of mayoral’s performance, were all significantly related to their voting behavior respectively. In other words, these variables could influence the voting behavior of female voters in Taipei City. After including these variables in the same model to compare their relative influences, it was found that the two most influential variables were “party identification” and “candidate evaluation difference”. 3. For the female voters in Taipei City, the demographic variables such as province of origin, income, and ethnic group identification were significantly related to their voting behavior respectively. However, compared with other social psychological variables like party identification, and candidate evaluation, these demographic variables were not as significant according to the results of the influence analysis using the logistic regression model. Therefore, the social psychological approach proposed by the Michigan School was better than the sociological approach proposed by the Columbia School in explanatory power and prediction power of the voting behavior of female voters in Taipei City.