預算赤字的多寡通常被一般大眾視為衡量政府財政態勢的指標之一，但近年來有許多學者批評大部分人所認知的預算赤字（歲出大於歲入），無法真實表達政府之財政態勢，因而發展出「資產負債表法」，認為真正之預算赤字應重新定義為每年淨值（總資產減總負債）之變化，此法不但能充分揭露政府有關真實負債的資訊，亦能反映是否符合跨代間之公平(inter-period equity)。 　　就政府會計學理和先進國家的發展趨勢而言，最能充分表達資產負債表內容之會計基礎為應計基礎，故本研究擬在此理論基礎下，以民國87~89年度之台北縣政府決算報表為例，改編其資產負債表。 　　按應計基礎試算台北縣政府之民國87~89年度之未計「應付退休金負債」淨值，分別約為4,336億、3,442億、3,552億元，明顯大於現行修正應計基礎下之淨值92億、58億、-38億，其主要原因是將其資本支出和投資列入資產負債表中。由可處分之淨值變化及考慮潛在退休金負債後，可推估民國88年度約有預算赤字893.5億，在88下半年及89年度則較上年度約增加189.17億。

This paper investigates the impact of accruals and cash flow components of earnings on the stock prices and whether the stock prices fully reflect information about future earnings contained in the accrual and cash flow components of current earnings. This is an interesting issue of narrow framing, an application of behavioral finance. We mainly follow Sloan (1996)’s methodology but adjust hypothesis settings to fit the real situation of stock market in Taiwan. We find that high earnings performance that is attributable to cash flow components is more likely to be sustained than high earnings performance that is attributable to accrual components. / This paper investigates the impact of accruals and cash flow components of earnings on the stock prices and whether the stock prices fully reflect information about future earnings contained in the accrual and cash flow components of current earnings. This is an interesting issue of narrow framing, an application of behavioral finance. We mainly follow Sloan (1996)’s methodology but adjust hypothesis settings to fit the real situation of stock market in Taiwan. We find that high earnings performance that is attributable to cash flow components is more likely to be sustained than high earnings performance that is attributable to accrual components.

企業發生財務危機，不僅使其經營陷入生死關頭之掙扎，更影響眾多投資人、債權人的利益，對於整個經濟環境亦造成一定的衝擊。因此，如何提早察覺企業之危機，以減少社會成本，實值得我們深入研究。 本研究主要目的為評估現金流量表揭露之資訊，於預測企業財務危機的有用性。本研究欲探討現金流量資訊是否為預測企業財務危機的良好指標，於建構企業財務危機預警模式之際，加入現金流量的財務指標是否會比僅以傳統財務比率建立之預警模式，更具預測能力。 本研究採用配對樣本設計，在我國上市公司中共選取了35家危機公司與68家正常公司。並利用Logit迴歸分析分別建立現金流量模式、應計財務模式與綜合模式，得到以下結論： 一、在財務危機發生之前一至三年，本研究所使用的應計基礎財務比率並非皆適合用來區分危機公司與正常公司。 二、除了營業活動現金流量相關比率具有顯著的區別能力外，部分投資與融資活動現金流量相關比率亦提供額外的財務危機警訊。 三、現金流量比率預警模式之預測力表現不遜於應計基礎比率模式；但在應計基礎比率中加入現金流量比率，並未顯著提高模式的預測能力。 / The objective of this study is to assess the usefulness of cash flow disclosures in the prediction of financial distress. This study also determines whether cash flow ratios are good indicator of financial distress and whether adding cash flow ratios in prediction model can improve the predictive ability of the model employing conventional accrual-based ratios. Using a matched pair design, this study examines a sample of 35 distress firms along with 68 non-distress firms. Also, a logistic regression analysis is used to establish the financial distress model with and without cash flow variables respectively, in order to test the hypotheses developed by this study and to derive the conclusion. The findings of this study are as follows. 1. During the period between 3 years to 1 year before financial distress, the accrual-based ratios used in this study aren't all good predictor in financial distress model. 2. The discriminate ability of operating cash flow data is significant. Also, the investing and financing cash flow data provide additional information in the prediction of business distress. 3. Cash flow ratios provide a superior measure for the prediction of financial distress over accrual-based ratios. However, no significant evidence shows that using cash flow ratios in conjunction with accrual-based ratios can improve the overall predictive power of accrual-based ratios alone.

本研究的主旨在探討現金盈餘與會計盈餘之相對資訊內涵，並進一步探討會計選擇在股價形成中，所扮演之角色。FASB在觀念性公報第一號提出：應計基礎係將現金基礎彙總轉換，故其所包含的資訊較現金基礎來得多，品質也較高。因此，會計盈餘應較現金盈餘更具資訊內涵。而繼美國財務會計準則公報第95號公布二年後，國內於民國78年12月發布財務會計準財公報第17號「現金流量表」，故本研究探討會計盈餘與現金盈餘究竟何者較能解釋股票報酬？進一步分析淨應計項目是否具增額資訊內涵？最後將盈餘做理論上之分解，比較其資訊內涵，並利用公司規模、產業、應計項目幅度及營業週期等因素對該關係之解釋力做敏感度分析。 　　本研究以159家樣本公司作為研究對象，蒐集民國79年至84年的資料，以pooling 及橫斷面設計，迴歸分析來比較會計盈餘與現金盈餘和股票報酬的關聯性。 　　經由實證結果，本研究獲致如下的結論： 　　一、會計盈餘與現金盈餘資訊內涵之比較 　　會計盈餘與股票報酬關聯性大於現金盈餘與股票報酬的關聯。且稅後淨利的資訊品質優於營業淨利。 　　二、應計項目資訊內涵 　　　（一）除第一季及第三季外，淨應計項目並未具有超過盈餘之增額資訊內涵。 　　　（二）除第一季外，流動應計項目並未較非流動應計項目具有較佳的資訊內涵。 　　　（三）在反迴歸模式中，淨應計項目、流動及非流動應計項目均具有增額資訊內涵。 　　三、盈餘組成分子增額資訊內涵 　　　（一）將盈餘分解成營運之現金流量及淨應計項目，對股票報酬的解釋力並無增加；但淨應計項目有超過營運之現金流量之資訊內涵。 　　　（二）現金流量表中要素具有增額資訊內涵，其中營業及投資活動之現金流量皆具有資訊內涵，而理財活動則無。 　　四、敏感度分析：公司規模、應計項目幅度及淨營業項目的長短皆會影響盈餘、現金流量與股票報酬關聯性。 　　　（一）公司規模與股價報酬對會計資訊的反應有關聯，加入公司規模變數後，使盈餘與股票報酬關聯性增加。 　　　（二）應計項目的幅度會影響盈餘、現金流量與股票報酬關聯性。且應計項目幅度較小者，其結果較佳。 　　　（三）淨營業循環的長短也會影響盈餘、現金流量與股票報酬關聯性。且淨營業循環較短者，其結果較佳。

2001年國際貨幣基金 (IMF) 為使各國政府財政資訊能更完整的表達其全貌、提高營運績效、加強財政責任、提高財政透明度，進而詳實評估政府活動對總體經濟影響程度，並使各國間與學術研究機構有一致性的比較基礎，捨棄1986年版現金基礎的政府財政統計手冊，重新公布改採權責發生基礎記錄經濟事項的政府財政統計手冊。 我國政府會計除基金別之外，又有機關別；會計基礎之採用除現金基礎，又有修正現金基礎、修正應計基礎及契約責任制等，致政府所編製財務報表，非專業人士難以瞭解其報導內容，大大降低財務報表的有用性。八０年代以後，歐美先進國家財政改革過程中，改採以應計基礎編製政府財務報導，藉由成本會計管理觀念的導入，提高政府財政效率及效能，並有效加強資產及負債的管理績效，故本研究以應計基礎試編我國93年度中央政府的合併資產負債表，以呈現政府目前的財政狀況。 本研究將93年度中央政府 (1)普通基金公務機關決算、(2)非營業特種基金決算、(3)國營事業決算、(4)已結束營業尚未清理完畢之前省營或國營事業清理期間決算等四大部分，將未依商業會計應計基礎所編製的平衡表，經調整、補列各項資產及負債項目及沖轉內部交易等事項後，試編93年度中央政府合併資產負債表，其淨值為7,529.85億元。 / In 2001 the International Monetary Fund (IMF) dedicated for the various countries' government finance information more integral to display the complete visions of government finance, to enhance the operation efficiency, to reinforce the fiscal accountability, and to uplift the fiscal transparency, furthermore to evaluate the effects of government activities on the overall economy, and to enable the various countries and the academic research institutes to have the coherence comparison benchmark, abandoned the cash basis of the Government Finance Statistics Manual of 1986, and renounced to adopt the economic transaction record of the Government Finance Statistics Manual 2001 on an accrual basis. In Taiwan government accounting has been classified by institutions as well as by funds. All kinds of government accounting basis adopted in Taiwan are as follows: the cash basis, the modified cash basis, the revision accrual basis and the contract responsibility system. Therefore the financial report forms and contents published by the government, could not been understood by the public, except the professional. Therefore the usability of the financial report forms is greatly reduced. After 1980s, during the fiscal reform in European and American advanced countries, adaptation of accrual basis to establish government finance report form, by introducing the concepts of cost accounting, enhances the government finance efficiency and effectiveness greatly, and strengthens the performances of asset and liability management. Therefore this research employs accrual basis trying to establish a consolidated balance sheet of 2004 fiscal year for central government in Taiwan, and to show the fiscal stance of this country. This research tries to combine the fiscal year 2004 final accounts of central authorities, including (1) the agency unit general fund’s final accounts, (2) non-profit special fund’s final accounts, (3) state-owned enterprises final accounts, and (4) not yet sorted out but finished business of the province-owned or the state-owned enterprises liquidated period of final accounts, which are all not arranged according to commercial accounting basis. After finishing adjustments and additional arrangements for some items of assets and liabilities and off-setting the amounts of internal transactions, fiscal year 2004 central government consolidated balance sheet’s net worth is 752.98 billion NT Dollars.