公債發行與預算赤字通常被視為一種「罪惡」，且為大眾所探討與關心的課題。但是預算赤字（總支出減總收入）此一簡單的數字，並未能真實表達政府的財務狀況。傳統的赤字衡量方式，因為未考慮：通貨膨脹的效果、景氣循環的因素、經常支出與資本支出之區分、有形資產之計入與隱含性負債的考慮等等，故並非一合適的衡量指標。鑑於此種種問題，最近已產生對傳統赤字衡量有揭露不充分的感覺，故有必要嘗試以另一種方法，來洞悉政府債務與赤字的「迷思」(Myth)與實際(Realities)。 　　英美兩國已針對赤字問題，發展出「資產負債表法」，試圖將所有可能改變政府部門淨值（總資產減總負債）變化的因素皆予以考慮，認為除了觀察赤字變化之外，政府部門的資產負債表方能提供政府財務狀況之全貌。單一預算的預算赤字，袛表示「現金流量不足」，為防止數字之誤導，應將目前的資本支出與費用予以釐清，而編製公共部門的資產負債表。所以本文乃在探討此法的理論背景與衡量方法，並企圖建立中央政府的資產負債表，概略估計其淨值變化之趨勢，藉以澄清赤字問題或許並非如斯可怕，而期以較正確的角度來觀察政府的財務狀況。

預算赤字的多寡通常被一般大眾視為衡量政府財政態勢的指標之一，但近年來有許多學者批評大部分人所認知的預算赤字（歲出大於歲入），無法真實表達政府之財政態勢，因而發展出「資產負債表法」，認為真正之預算赤字應重新定義為每年淨值（總資產減總負債）之變化，此法不但能充分揭露政府有關真實負債的資訊，亦能反映是否符合跨代間之公平(inter-period equity)。 　　就政府會計學理和先進國家的發展趨勢而言，最能充分表達資產負債表內容之會計基礎為應計基礎，故本研究擬在此理論基礎下，以民國87~89年度之台北縣政府決算報表為例，改編其資產負債表。 　　按應計基礎試算台北縣政府之民國87~89年度之未計「應付退休金負債」淨值，分別約為4,336億、3,442億、3,552億元，明顯大於現行修正應計基礎下之淨值92億、58億、-38億，其主要原因是將其資本支出和投資列入資產負債表中。由可處分之淨值變化及考慮潛在退休金負債後，可推估民國88年度約有預算赤字893.5億，在88下半年及89年度則較上年度約增加189.17億。

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研究動機：由於財務報表使用人已由傳統上重視資產負債表轉為重視損益表，而損益 表上的單獨表達項目：非常損益、停業部門損益、會計原則變動累積影響數，雖讓公 司管理當局感到”拖油瓶”之累，卻是報表使用人的重要資訊來源。目前我國一般公 認會計原則之緘密，難免會有與經濟情況脫序之情形。因此，本研究動機如下： １．損益表上為何要設立單獨表達項目﹖是否具有決策有用性﹖ ２．我國企業採用單獨表達項目之情形及原因如何﹖ ３．我國制定會計原則的權威機構是否完全考慮到實質經濟情況而制定損益表上單獨 表達之準則﹖ 研究方法：包括兩個層面： 一、規範性研究部份：著重於觀念性的介紹，採敘述性及探索性的方法，就有關之期 刊、書籍及論文等次級資料進行研究，將美國及我國會計權威機構對於單獨表達之規 定，加以介紹。 二、實證研究部份：上市公司採實地調查其損益表上單獨表達之處理。非上市公司採 問卷調查方式，以窺我國企業採用性形及原因。

本研究致力於探討美國聯準會(FED)實施量化寬鬆政策(QE)與否，商業銀行資產負債表對於股價的影響。本文藉由總經指標(工業生產指數、製造業採購經理人指數)、利差變數(公司債利差、10年期公司債利差)，以及資產負債表變數(存款、貸款等)，對商業銀行股價進行解釋。並透過量化寬鬆政策(QE)的虛擬變數，了解該政策對股價的影響，以及實施該政策是否能夠改善資產負債表變數的顯著程度和影響方向。方法上，本文採用迴歸分析的方式進行實證分析。首先，研究以總經指標以及利差變數對股價進行解釋，且期間限定為量化寬鬆政策期間，藉此確認這兩類變數對股價的影響。後續則以加入資產負債表變數、量化寬鬆(QE)虛擬變數等，並將期間延伸至15年，以進一步釐清實施量化寬鬆(QE)政策的影響。本文實證結果顯示，美國量化寬鬆政策對於商業銀行股的股價有負面影響，且活期存款對股價的影響亦為負向。 / The thesis focuses on the FED policy – Quantitative Easing (QE) and how the policy affect the S&P 500 commercial bank sub-index return. Based on past researches, the article includes macroeconomic variables (IP, PMI), term structure variables, bank balance sheet variables (deposits and loans), and a QE dummy variable. With these variables, the outcomes are generated by regression. It can be observed that with the implementation of QE policy, stock returns are negative on average. Moreover, large banks would benefit from provide more commercial loans; on the other hand, small banks would obtain a positive return by lending more consumer loans. Demand deposits are another significant variable which would have negative impact on stock returns.

資本市場之系統性風險加劇時，對於利率變動型人壽保險所持有之區隔資產將出現大幅波動，進而影響保險公司之清償能力，本研究透過建立區隔資產負債表之隨機模型，檢視系統性風險下對於人壽保險業違約風險之變化，並透過敏感度分析找出對違約風險影響最大的因子。 本研究依據利率變動型壽險之現金流量建立公司之資產負債模型，預期建立Heston (1993)模型描述標的資產的隨機波動過程，相較於以往Black-Scholes (1973)模型更能反映真實的市場波動。本研究藉由資產與負債的變化，衡量保險公司違約風險，同時分析影響違約風險之各項因子，包含解約、死亡與資產配置策略之關聯性。本研究結果顯示，宣告利率、評價時間長度及資產配置策略等皆會影響保險公司之違約風險及其破產幅度。 / When systemic risk of capital markets exacerbates, the segment assets that held by interest sensitive life insurance policies will fluctuate widely and affect insurer's solvency. This paper considers the problem of valuating the default risk of the life insurers under systematic risk, by constructing a stochastic model of segment balance sheet. In this paper, we establish insurer's asset-liability model on the basis of interest sensitive life insurance policies' cash flow.In particular, we use Heston(1993) model to simulate stochastic process of assets, which is better reflect market volatility than Black-Scholes(1973) model in reality. And moreover, by means of the variation on asset and liability, this study evaluating the default risk of life insurers and analyze the factors affect default risk, like the correlation between surrender, death and asset allocation. And using the result of sensitivity analysis to determine which factor is more important, like guaranteed rate, time period of valuation and so on.

2001年國際貨幣基金 (IMF) 為使各國政府財政資訊能更完整的表達其全貌、提高營運績效、加強財政責任、提高財政透明度，進而詳實評估政府活動對總體經濟影響程度，並使各國間與學術研究機構有一致性的比較基礎，捨棄1986年版現金基礎的政府財政統計手冊，重新公布改採權責發生基礎記錄經濟事項的政府財政統計手冊。 我國政府會計除基金別之外，又有機關別；會計基礎之採用除現金基礎，又有修正現金基礎、修正應計基礎及契約責任制等，致政府所編製財務報表，非專業人士難以瞭解其報導內容，大大降低財務報表的有用性。八０年代以後，歐美先進國家財政改革過程中，改採以應計基礎編製政府財務報導，藉由成本會計管理觀念的導入，提高政府財政效率及效能，並有效加強資產及負債的管理績效，故本研究以應計基礎試編我國93年度中央政府的合併資產負債表，以呈現政府目前的財政狀況。 本研究將93年度中央政府 (1)普通基金公務機關決算、(2)非營業特種基金決算、(3)國營事業決算、(4)已結束營業尚未清理完畢之前省營或國營事業清理期間決算等四大部分，將未依商業會計應計基礎所編製的平衡表，經調整、補列各項資產及負債項目及沖轉內部交易等事項後，試編93年度中央政府合併資產負債表，其淨值為7,529.85億元。 / In 2001 the International Monetary Fund (IMF) dedicated for the various countries' government finance information more integral to display the complete visions of government finance, to enhance the operation efficiency, to reinforce the fiscal accountability, and to uplift the fiscal transparency, furthermore to evaluate the effects of government activities on the overall economy, and to enable the various countries and the academic research institutes to have the coherence comparison benchmark, abandoned the cash basis of the Government Finance Statistics Manual of 1986, and renounced to adopt the economic transaction record of the Government Finance Statistics Manual 2001 on an accrual basis. In Taiwan government accounting has been classified by institutions as well as by funds. All kinds of government accounting basis adopted in Taiwan are as follows: the cash basis, the modified cash basis, the revision accrual basis and the contract responsibility system. Therefore the financial report forms and contents published by the government, could not been understood by the public, except the professional. Therefore the usability of the financial report forms is greatly reduced. After 1980s, during the fiscal reform in European and American advanced countries, adaptation of accrual basis to establish government finance report form, by introducing the concepts of cost accounting, enhances the government finance efficiency and effectiveness greatly, and strengthens the performances of asset and liability management. Therefore this research employs accrual basis trying to establish a consolidated balance sheet of 2004 fiscal year for central government in Taiwan, and to show the fiscal stance of this country. This research tries to combine the fiscal year 2004 final accounts of central authorities, including (1) the agency unit general fund’s final accounts, (2) non-profit special fund’s final accounts, (3) state-owned enterprises final accounts, and (4) not yet sorted out but finished business of the province-owned or the state-owned enterprises liquidated period of final accounts, which are all not arranged according to commercial accounting basis. After finishing adjustments and additional arrangements for some items of assets and liabilities and off-setting the amounts of internal transactions, fiscal year 2004 central government consolidated balance sheet’s net worth is 752.98 billion NT Dollars.

日本經濟自1990年起，由「日本第一」落入「流動性陷阱」，而陷入長達10多年的不景氣，主因是日本股市及不動產市場重挫，企業向銀行貸款所提供之擔保品價值下滑，卻因在低利率時代已過度借貸，又經營不善面臨虧損，發生償債困難，一旦財務有所改善，只想提前償還貸款，而無增加貸款意願，故稱為「資產負債表的衰退」（Balance Sheet Recession）。整體經濟景氣蕭條，國內需求不振，亦使振興經濟之寬鬆貨幣政策無法達到預期效果。 日本資產泡沫的破滅使銀行體系的逾放問題日益嚴重。日本政府為了加強銀行體系的健全性，實施金融改革（Big Bang）。使原本以傳統存、放款業務為主的銀行，在面臨國際化浪潮時，也能同時經營證券、保險業務，並將新金融商品引進日本。並由隸屬於內閣府的金融廳(Financial Services Agency)來監督日本銀行及證券業務，負責金融檢查及金融法規企劃業務，落實金融與財政分離之原則。但日本金融業務日益多元化，及衍生性金融商品日趨複雜，對金融監理機關之專業能力，形成新的挑戰。以上所述為日本國內的經濟與金融問題。 至於日圓對外幣的匯率方面，由於日圓利率偏低，套利交易(carry trade) 盛行。投資人趁著日本央行維持低利率之際，借入低成本的日圓資金，然後換成利率較高的外幣轉戰國際市場，追逐收益較高的資產，同時賺取利差、匯率及資產升值的價差，使日圓匯率的走勢疲弱，也造成全球金融市場的波動。 本論文的分析包含： ㄧ、日本經濟不景氣問題剖析：股市及不動產資產泡沫化 二、日本金融危機形成原因：資產價格下跌，影響抵押品價值，企業償債能力變差，故使銀行不良債權增加。 三、日本總體經濟近況（GDP、CPI、失業率的變化）及經濟復甦後日本央行貨幣政策的改變 四、日本金融市場如股市、房地產市場及日本政府債券（JGB）市場的分析及展望。 五、探討日本銀行業獲利能力、不良債權問題、資本適足率以及銀行業股價指數的變化。 六、根據台灣以及日本最近的發展對金融監理單位及銀行業提出應有的改革與建議。 / The Japanese economy fell into a “liquidity trap” in 1990. Due to the stock market and real estate market plunge, the deep recession has lasted for over 10 years. The bursting of asset bubbles caused the balance sheets of enterprises to become weaker and weaker. All companies hoped to reduce their debt to banks if they were profitable. They had no intention to reinvest any more. So it was called - Balance Sheet Recession. Even though the Bank of Japan adopted an easy monetary policy, the financial system remained vulnerable. With the bad debt of commercial banks increasing, the NPL (non-performing loan) problem has been a major concern for city banks and regional banks. Japan's "Big Bang" reforms radically altered its financial marketplace. The barriers separating banks, securities, and insurance companies were lowered. The Financial Services Agency replaced Ministry of Finance to oversee banking, securities and exchange and insurance in order to ensure the stability of the financial system. As for financial business diversified and derivative products complicated, there were many great challenges facing the financial regulatory authorities. During the past decade, the yen carry trade has become a target for many investors or speculators. Traders using this strategy attempt to capture the difference between the interest rates of two currencies. Taking USD/Yen for example, they borrowed the cheaper yen and invested in U.S. Treasuries yielding a higher interest rate. It causes the depreciation of Japanese Yen and increases the volatility of financial markets. This essay describes Japanese financial crisis, Japanese monetary policy, stock market, and real estate market. Besides, I analyze the profitability, capital adequacy, and non-performing problems of Japanese banks. Finally, I give my personal opinions on Taiwan and Japan’s banking industry.