「擴散理論」的探討一直是行銷領域中很重要的一項課題，而「電子貨幣」是近幾年來新興的一項產業，本論文主要結合這兩項，以實務的電子貨幣，做理論上的印證。 實務上的電子貨幣，本論文選擇了國內目前存在的五個電子貨幣做探討，即金資電子錢、捷運悠遊卡、Mondex電子現金、百視達加值卡以及東元數碼通，並且加上香港甚為成功的「八達通卡」和行之有年的「VISA信用卡」，以其特性和現行運作狀況做一探討，而理論上的「擴散理論」則從四個構面進行分析與比較，分別是外部環境、擴散因子、擴散管道和擴散族群，最後研究發現提出了電子貨幣的特性、擴散特徵的比較、四構面的分析、保齡球道理論以及未來電子貨幣面臨的問題等，嘗試從多個角度看此電子貨幣產業。 / The diffusion model and theory always was an important topics at marketing field，and the Electric cash(E-cash) was a new industry and payment tool at Taiwan local market，this thesis combined the diffusion theory and practical E-cash to research their relationship and some topics. Objectives This thesis try to investigate the growth of e-cash，include the five kinds of currently e-cash at Taiwan，such as Mondex、MRT yo-yo card、FISC e-cash、Blockbuster value-add card, and NETS. Survey the diffusion of distinguish at customers，the model of each different products the same or not. The furthermore，this thesis still try to establish the common diffusion model of E-cash. The main of object of this thesis are: 1. The Characteristic of E-cash. 2. The advantage of e-cash compare to traditional cash. 3. The Influence of product reformation，diffusion channels and environment on the diffusion of divisive customers. 4. The Bowling theory and niche market. 5. The future problem of E-cash to be met.

根據Bass(1969)擴散模式，放寬市場特性不影響創新擴散之假設，並使創 新係數與模仿係數可隨著時間而改變，以行動電話為例，探討ぇ各國採用 行動電話之市場潛能、市場飽和時之普及率以及單年最高採用人數出現的 時間，え市場特性因素如何影響行動電話之擴散，ぉ比較各國擴散模式與 多國擴散模式之解釋能力。研究結果發現：ぇ就本研究所分析的國家，各 國行動電話的市場大小，以美國最大，日本次之，愛爾蘭為最小。而行動 電話的最高普及率以美國與瑞典最高，超過10% ；其餘國家之最高普及率 都不超過 0.4%，顯示行動電話是一種普及率較低的服務。就單年最高採 用人數出現時間來看，只有日本是超過十年，其餘國家均在十年之內，甚 至比利時在第二年就出現採用高峰，顯示行動電話之產品生命週期可能不 是很長。え「市場需求指標」高的國家，有較高的模仿效果；「流動性」 對於創新效果與模仿效果的影響均是負的；「四海胸襟」對於創新與模仿 效果的影響均是正的。ぉ多國擴散模式的解釋能力較各國擴散模式佳，因 此，將市場特性因素加入創新擴散模式中確實有其必要性。

病毒行銷這個議題雖然主要是行銷理論的探究，但其原理卻是根據較基本的學門整合並配合擴散的現象建立的，因此這些本研究的結果不僅可以供網路行銷者的使用以外，也可以提供文化擴散、廣告行為、語文演變、甚至典範移轉的擴散行為研究之參考。 注射器與載體部份的實驗結果，操縱組與控制組效果差不多，甚至可說更差，但寄主組與進化組的效果則都有9倍以上的效果，可見選擇寄主十分重要，而注射器與載體則要配合寄主的設計才能有效果的發揮。這部份的結論與第四章最後一節的假設相同，因此該節的搭配原則設計方式可信度相當高。 因此綜合本研究的證據，回顧本研究在第二章所類比而得的，病毒行銷的架構假設，如下圖： 其中在如何使寄主消費與製造方面，確實可以類比為病毒在寄主體內的自我複製行為，而傳播則類比為衍生子行為、進化類比為突變子行為。病毒本體除了基因是預設的產品、服務等行銷目的以外，本研究也認為選定目標寄主可以提高病毒行銷的效果，因為以病毒來說，在一個全是可感染寄主的群體中與一個有多種寄主的群體中，當然是在前者的感染效率會較佳。而蛋白質外殼類比為載體相當正確，雖然單一效果不明顯，但其不可或缺性可以在進化部份的實驗以及個案研究中獲得證實。注射器在病毒生態中也是一個不明顯的角色，類比到病毒行銷中也是一個單一設計效果不明顯的部件，而其結構組成跟載體相同則也在某種程度上反應了載體與注射器是一體的兩面，一個專司防禦一個專司攻擊。 回顧一開始本研究所設定的病毒行銷暫時性的操作型定義，「所謂的病毒行銷是可以由行銷者依據行銷目的的不同，而為該目的設計出的一套專屬的、能夠經由自我擴散的方式以完成該特定行銷目的的完整線上行銷策略。」經由到現在的推理結果可以發現該定義可以擴展如下： 所謂的病毒行銷，是可以由行銷者依據不同的行銷目的（基因），根據不同的顧客族群（寄主）特性來選擇與設計的，為完成該特定目的的、專屬的、能夠經由特定管道（注射器）自我擴散的、擁有特定形式（載體）的一套線上行銷策略。 整理本研究重點如下： 1.任何公司都可以採用病毒行銷，用本研究的語言為，基因可以為任何產品、品牌、甚至策略目標。 2.當選擇的行銷目的確定了以後，目標顧客也同時被確定。行銷者的工作是尋找出來並設定為目標。換句話說，基因與目標寄主是成對的。 3.適當選擇或設計行銷目的的表現形式可以提高行銷效果。換句話說，經由適當設計過的載體可以提高病毒行銷的效果。 　4.要影響顧客的行為，必然要先能引起顧客的動機，而引起顧客動機的資訊也要能包含在病毒行銷之中。 　5.每一次的病毒行銷應該都是一套完整的行銷策略，唯有適切操作本研究所談及的四個部件才能發揮完全的功效。 　6.本研究所討論的病毒行銷與直銷、傳播研究所謂的二級傳播理論之差異如下表所示： ┌────┬─────────────┬────┬──────┐ │　　　 │病毒行銷 　　　　　　　│直銷 │二級傳播 　 │ ├────┼─────────────┼────┼──────┤ │傳播者　│包括顧客與傳播的中心點　　│顧客　　│傳播的中心點│ ├────┼─────────────┼────┼──────┤ │績效評估│經設計過後可以被估算 　 │可以 │不行 │ ├────┼─────────────┼────┼──────┤ │應用範圍│本研究中暫時限制為虛擬世界│實體世界│不限 　　　 │ └────┴─────────────┴────┴──────┘ / Viral marketing was first to be mentioned in the article of the fast company web site in december, 1996. In this article, the auther give virus marketing the defination of “a marketing method which spreads itself automatically”, and people who see this article adopted it, too. Although this defination is clear, many people treat viral marketing as another name of ”e-mail marketing”. e-mail marketing means using the e-mail system as a tool of marketing. For the characteristics of e-mail are convenient, cheap, public and “people spread it volunteerly”, most early examples of viral marketing use e-mail as their tool to spread. That’s the main reason the two concepts was confused. Objectives This research tries to reach three main objects： ● Give viral marketing an academic definition ,which means the marketing manager could repeat the approach to get similar result. ● Find the components of viral marketing so that the characters could be descripted ,and the main parts that should be operated could be assured. ● Try to find the relation between the viral marketing locus and the environment where it is happening. Research Structure According to biology theorem, virus’ life cycle was discovered almost completely. That’s the main reason for the research taking virus’ life cycle as a reference of reseach structure. To avoid of lacking any component which is important and to define the main category, the adapting is neccesary and decisive. After observing about 500 cases for 3 months, components of viral marketing was formed gradually. Under the strict analogy logic molted from the concept of “analogism”, the main components that should be operated was figured out. They are Injector, Carrier, Host, and Evolution. Injector and Carrier are both inside the “virus” which was made by the marketing manager or virus designer. Host is another name of customer. Evolution is an component which only bring obvious effects when the environment element was taked into consideration. Redraw the components’ relation as follows: In this model, there are four action which are not mentioned above. Produce explains where the virus from, Infecting refers to the reason that a virus could influnce host’s behavior, Consuming is the action to complete the full cycle. Spreading and evoluting was co-variating actions that were discussed in the evolution chapter. Case Choice For the different purposes in this research, the types of cases choosed were diversing and the amount was large. Most effort was taked in observing the e-mail everyday. Tracing each email, counting their spread period, and analyzing the success or fail key factors. To analogize the virus’ life cycle, the meanings of components in the real world are required. For this purpose, Hotmail, ICQ, and Ctrl-Mail were chosed as the real world cases of viral marketing. Hotmail and ICQ were both selected as sucessful examples of viral marketing extensively. Ctrl-Mail was chosed for their high technology background and technology-oriented company strategy so that viral marketing will not be misunderstanded as another IT method nor marketing concept but a mixture of concept and method. Research Methodology The first part of this research was based on the ground theory. To build the open category, about 200 cases was studied to defined the main category of viral marketing, and 3 primary cases was analyzied to analogize the structure of the research, using the research methodology of “Right Analogy”. Right Analogy is constructed on the same logic of anlogism, which requires 2 similar objects shall the same but one critical difference, and then the characteristics is analogied possible. Under the logic, the primary category can be constructed, and the theory can be extracted from the cases we observed. Conclusions 1. The definition of viral marketing can be described as follows:“ Viral marketing is an online strategy which is in an particular formation, can spread itself through the paticular chnnels and if marketing managers, designers, or any one who need it can design it personally to reach a particular object.” 2. Virus’ gene can be any product, brand, service, and even a strategy object. 3. When the marketing object was chosen, the target customer was assured at the same time. In another words, gene and host in viral marketing are coupled. 4. Proper represet formation can induce higher marketing effect, that is, a proper designed carrier is better. 5. The differences between viral marketing, direct selling, and second-level communication were showed as follows: ┌──────┬────────────┬───────┬─────────┐ │　　　 │Viral marketing │Direct selling│second-level │ │　　　 │ │ │communication │ ├──────┼────────────┼───────┼─────────┤ │communicator│Customer and the center │Customer │the center of │ │　　　 │of the communication │ │the communication │ ├──────┼────────────┼───────┼─────────┤ │Achievement │Can be estimated after │yes │no │ │estimation │being designed │ │ │ ├──────┼────────────┼───────┼─────────┤ │Applied │Virtual world limited │Real world │No limited │ │situation │in this research │ │ │ └──────┴────────────┴───────┴─────────┘

現今市場競爭愈來愈激烈，迫使廠商紛紛至海外尋求產品消費市場，在跨國銷售的背景之下，需要有更多可以確定國家選擇、預測銷售及估計需求的方法。而其中可以滿足這些需求的方法之中，就是研究產品跨國擴散型態，藉以瞭解後進國家與領先國家中新產品如何擴散且會如何互相影響 (Douglas and Craig, 1992)。 在眾多的跨國產品中，本研究選擇好萊塢電影做為實證分析的對象。 經由集群分析，本研究發現（一）台灣高首週票房且口碑佳的電影，會遇到假日人潮、有很高的美國總票房、以及很高的美國首週票房；（二）美國影片在美國及台灣映演的每週票房趨勢有差異存在；（三）片商沒有做好影片在台灣映演的檔期歸劃；（四）三群電影中，在影片類型沒有明顯地區別。 經由十二個新產品銷售預測模型的建立：對數線性迴歸模式（LN-Regression Model）（不考慮新產品領先國擴散經驗）（以OLS估計）、卜瓦松迴歸模式(Poisson Regression Model) （不考慮新產品領先國擴散經驗）（以MLE估計）、負二項分配迴歸模式(Negative Binomial Distribution Regression Model) （不考慮新產品領先國擴散經驗）（以MLE估計）、Exponential Decay模式（以OLS估計）＋迴歸方程式體系（不考慮新產品領先國擴散經驗）（以SUR估計）、Exponential Decay模式（以OLS估計）＋迴歸方程式體系（考慮新產品領先國擴散經驗）（以SUR估計）、Exponential Decay模式＋層級貝氏迴歸模式（考慮新產品領先國擴散經驗）、Bass連續型擴散模式（以NLS估計）＋迴歸方程式體系（不考慮新產品領先國擴散經驗（以SUR估計）、Bass連續型擴散模式（以NLS估計）＋迴歸方程式體系（考慮新產品領先國擴散經驗（以SUR估計）、Bass離散型擴散模式（以OLS估計）＋迴歸方程式體系（不考慮新產品領先國擴散經驗）（以SUR估計）、Bass離散型擴散模式（以OLS估計）＋迴歸方程式體系（考慮新產品領先國擴散經驗）（以SUR估計）、層級貝氏BASS離散型擴散模式＋迴歸方程式體系（不考慮新產品領先國擴散經驗）（以SUR估計）、層級貝氏BASS離散型擴散模式＋迴歸方程式體系（考慮新產品領先國擴散經驗）（以SUR估計）。本研究發現：（一）在考慮影響後進國的新產品擴散速度時，領先國的擴散經驗為絕對必要的考慮因子；（二）必須使用Bass連續型擴散模式做為建構新產品銷售預測模型的基礎；（三）必須使用Bass連續型擴散模式的NLS估計法估計Bass模型的創新係數p、模仿係數q及市場潛量m。