近年來環保意識興起，越來越多國家、政府開始重視環境保護，隨著越來越多相關環保法令規章的通過，企業不得不將環保因素納入企業營運考量。考量到環保因素許多的原料不能再使用，有些原料則是必須回收後再使用來達到環境保護，所以企業不能再獨善其身，企業必須負責將自己售出的產品回收再處理，因此逆向物流(reverse logistics)漸漸地受企業重視。近幾年來越來越多學者投入逆向物流相關議題的研究，但大部份都是針對某單一供應鏈管理策略做探討，例如：楊昭峯(2002),”製造策略對逆向供應鏈績效之影響”。張嘉恆、蘇純繪、林君維(2005),”綠色供應鏈模擬存貨採購策略之研究”。郭文清(2004),”逆向供應鏈製造策略之探討”。本次的研究便是探討比較全面性的供應鏈策略組合造成的影響，希望找出在逆向物流下這些供應鏈管理策略組合對成本之影響？研究目的有二點： 一、 逆向物流下不同策略組合對成本的影響度。 二、 建議企業在哪種逆向物流環境下該採用何種策略組合。 本次的研究方法主要是透過模擬的方式來達成，藉由模擬的方式得知各種供應鏈管理策略組合對成本所造成的影響，而主要的策略架構於供應鏈協會(Supply Chain Council, SCC)所發展的SCOR Model，SCOR Model提供了供應鏈管理中的參考流程如Source(採購)、Make(製造)、Deliver(配送)、Return(回收)，這次研究的策略主要分成這四大區塊，再探討相關策略文獻應用於本研究。決定了相關策略後，再建立成本項目用來評估每一種組合所產生的影響，最後建立實驗模型與流程進行模擬實驗。 關鍵字﹕逆向物流、供應鏈管理、策略組合

台灣雜誌市場在近十年來有愈來愈競爭的現象，雜誌業者在面對未來市場，該如何以最佳型態來滿足讀者的需求，如何更深化市場，持續推動成長，都是雜誌同業必須共同思索的議題。過去不受重視的行銷策略，現在因為雜誌市場的激烈競爭，必須憑藉著優異的行銷組合、傳播工具及資源整合等方式，有效取得市場銷售優勢，才能在市場上取得領先，搶得市佔率。此外，當廣告營收成為雜誌經營最重要的收入來源時，如何提升廣告主的滿意度，與廣告主建立長久穩定的關係，也成為此次研究的關注焦點。 本研究以台灣創刊最早的大八開雜誌《時報周刊》在2007年3月份改版為個案研究對象，以文獻資料分析法、深度訪談法及問卷調查法三種研究方法，從整合行銷傳播的觀點，作為分析媒體行銷的依據，試圖剖析《時報周刊》改版的整合行銷策略形貌及執行狀況。本研究以不同學派的IMC模式為理論基礎作修正，分析整合行銷傳播在《時報周刊》雜誌改版的應用情形；另外，嘗試建構廣告主對綜合性雜誌廣告服務品質的評估準則，並以此對《時報周刊》進行評鑑，藉由此一深入研究，以便有效提升廣告主的滿意度。希望能透過實務上的詳細觀察，多重的研究方法，思考整合行銷策略時的主要問題及成功關鍵因素，以提供雜誌業者的相關研究與實務界參考。 研究結果發現，《時報周刊》的改版，加強了競爭優勢，主要源自於下列因素：1.資料庫行銷的強化應用。2.縝密的行銷策略組合，將雜誌開本改為市場主流規格、降低紙張成本、衍生改版後的創新形象、直接挑戰競爭對手的零售價格、更好的陳列位置、增強新聞議題的操作強度…等。3.多元化傳播工具的創意表現，做到了整合的策略性、一致性與協調性的綜效。4.在綜效評估部分，做到了讀者喜歡、發行數字成長的綜效。而針對廣告主的廣告服務品質的滿意度來看，最為肯定業務人員的專業能力及服務態度，其次，對於新聞內容品質上也有很高的滿意度。最後，從整合行銷傳播的理論架構來看，《時報周刊》這次的改版從資料庫開始所做的讀者分析、確認讀者的需求到發展最適溝通策略，整合對外傳播訊息及各項傳播工具表現一致的溝通訊息（One Voice, One Look），符合本研究所敘述之整合行銷傳播觀念模式。 / During the last decade the magazine market in Taiwan has been getting more and more competitive. When facing the incoming market, the publishers have to think out issues like how to fulfill readers’ requirements with their best arrangement, deepen and stabilize their market share, and promote persisting growth. In the past marketing strategies didn’t get much attention; however, since the fierce competition goes on and on, inevitably only applying excellent marketing strategy mix, communication tools and resource integration will enhance the advantages of market share and keep the leading position. Besides, when advertising revenue becomes the most important one to the magazine profit, in this study we also focus on how to raise advertisers’ satisfaction and build up long-term and loyal relations with them. The subject of this case study in the article is the earliest B4 size magazine, China Times Weekly (CTW), published in Taiwan, which revised in March 2007. On approaching the case, we adopt various methods including data analysis, in-depth interview and questionnaire survey. According to those IMC models from various theories, we apply a fixed IMC model to analyze the implementation within CTW’s revision in order to draw a thorough picture of the integrated marketing strategies as well as to understand how they were delivered in CTW‘s revision. Besides, this paper also aims to set out the model of magazine advertising service quality based on the needs of advertisers, and makes use of this conceptual model to evaluate the performances of CTW’s revision. With deep understanding of advertisers’ evaluation to CTW, it can be figured out efficient ways to raise their satisfaction levels. Through detailed observations on practices and with multiple research methods, we wish to figure out the main issues and key factors to success when thinking of integrated marketing communication strategy and to provide relevant researches on magazine publishers for practicing. The results show that CTW‘s revision did enhance its competitive advantages, which were mainly from the following factors: 1.Enhanced application of database marketing. 2.Detailed and well-knit marketing strategy mix, including downsizing format to the mainstream scale, reducing the cost of paper, creating innovating images, challenging competitors’ retail prices, better display position and enhancing the strength of news topics, etc. 3.Creative performance of multiple communication tools, achieving the synergy of integrated strategies, coherence, and cooperation. 4.On evaluating synergy, readers show their preference to the new version and the publication grows. Besides, as for the advertisers’ satisfaction on the quality of advertising service, the most positive response is the professionalism and service attitude, and next to that is the quality of news content. Finally, viewing through the structure of IMC theory, the revision of CTW, from the reader analysis of database, confirming readers’ requirements and developing optimal communication strategies, integrating outwardly communication and every communication tool to convey coherent information as one-voice, one-look, fits in the ideal model of IMC.

本研究的主要目的是希望喚起國內、外學者對演化科學在經濟學上的重視，結合電腦、生物科技、心理學與數學於經濟學中，希望對傳統經濟學上因簡化假設而無法克服的實際經濟問題，可以利用電腦模擬技術獲得解決，並獲取新知與技能。 本研究共有六章，第一章為緒論，敘述緣由與研究動機。第二章介紹傳統經濟學的缺失，再以資料掘取知識及智慧系統建構金融市場。第三章則介紹各種不同人工智慧的方法以模擬金融市場的投資策略。第四章建立無結構性變遷時間序列模型--交易策略電腦模擬分析，僅以遺傳演算法模擬金融市場的投資策略，分別由投資組合、交易成本、調適性、演化、與統計的觀點對策略作績效評分析。第五章則建立簡單的結構性變遷模型，分別由調適性與統計的觀點，採取遺傳演算法再對投資策略進行有效性評估分析。第六章則利用資料掘取知識與智慧系統結合計量經濟學的方法，建構遺傳演算法發展投資策略的步驟，以台灣股票市場的資料進行實証研究，分別就投資策略、交易成本、調適性與演化的觀點作分析。最後一章則為結論。 未來研究的方向有： 1. 其他各種不同人工智慧的方法的比較分析，如人工神經網路、遺傳規劃法等進行績效的交叉比較分析。 2. 利用分類系統(Classifier System)與模糊邏輯的方法，改善標準遺傳演算法對策略編碼的效率，並建構各種不同的複雜策略以符合真實世界的決策過程。 3. 建構其他人工時間資料的模擬比較分析，例如ARCH (Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity)模型、Threshold 模型、 確定性(Deterministic) 模型等其他時間序列模型與更複雜的結構性變遷模型。 4. 進一步研究遺傳演算法所使用的完整資訊(例如，各種不同指標的選取)。 5. 本研究係採用非即時分析系統(Offline System)，進一步研究即時分析系統 (Online Sysetem)在實務上是有必要的。 / Historically, the study of economics has been advanced by a combination of empirical observation and theoretic development. The analysis of mathematical equilibrium in theoretical economic models has been the predominant mode of progress in recent decades. Such models provide powerful insights into economic processes, but usually make restrictive assumptions and appear to be over simplifications of complex economic system. However, the advent of cheap computing power and new intelligent technologies makes it possible to delve further into some of the complexities inherent in the real economy. It is now feasible to create a rudimentary form of “artificial economic life”. First, we build the framework of artificial stock markets by using data mining and intelligent system. Second, in order to analyze competition among buyers and sellers in the artificial market, we introduce various methods of artificial intelligence to design trading rules, and investigate how machine-learning techniques might be applied to search the optimal investment strategy. Third, we create a miniature economic laboratory to build the artificial stock market by genetic algorithms to analyze investment strategies, by using real and artificial data, which consider both structural change and nonstructural change cases. Finally, we use statistical analysis to examine the performance of the portfolio strategies generated by genetic algorithms.