本論文分為三個主題,分別探討外國貿易對台灣中游石化業績效,開放程度與匯率轉嫁之影響（此欄無法空白,故填入簡單說明） / The dissertation is a collection of three separate but related papers which are devoted to the empirical studies of Taiwan’s midstream petrochemical industry. In addition to the introductory chapter, three papers are presented respectively in chapters 2 through 4. The empirical results in chapter 2 confirm the causalities derived from the theoretical model, and demonstrate that there do exist simultaneous relationships among domestic firms’ PCM, domestic concentration, import and export shares in Taiwan’s midstream petrochemical industries. Specifically, domestic concentration affects domestic firms’ PCM positively while import share, export share, import concentration and country concentration of exports affect domestic firms’ PCM negatively. Domestic firms’ PCM, import share and import concentration affect domestic concentration positively while market size affects domestic concentration negatively. Domestic concentration and cost differential affect import share positively while domestic firms’ PCM, export share, import concentration and capacity utilization affect import share negatively. Domestic firms’ PCM, import share and import concentration affect export share negatively. In addition, the results also imply domestic firms seem to be in a situation of collusion during the period of 1989-1997, and the collusive behavior probably has originated from their subsidiary or old employer-employee relationship. In chapter 3, the regression results confirm the causalities derived from the theoretical model, and demonstrate that there do exist simultaneous relationships among domestic firms’ PCM, domestic concentration and the openness to trade in Taiwan’s midstream petrochemical industries. Specifically, domestic concentration affects domestic firms’ PCM positively while openness and import concentration affect domestic firms’ PCM negatively. Domestic firms’ PCM, openness, import share, import concentration and capacity utilization affect domestic concentration positively while market size affects domestic concentration negatively. Domestic concentration and import share affect openness positively while domestic firms’ PCM and import concentration affect openness negatively. Based on the derived causalities, the above empirical results imply that the interactive relationship among domestic firms as well as that between domestic and foreign firms might both be collusive during the period of 1989-1997, and the collusive behavior probably has originated from their subsidiary or old employer-employee relationship. In chapter 4, we have found that firms from the two largest importing nations of midstream petrochemicals in Taiwan, the US and Japan, have exercised market power in Taiwan market during our sample period. However, our data seems to suggest that other causes of incomplete pass-through were important for Japan and US imports. Observing the differences between Japanese and the US import behavior, cost increases for Japanese firms have a lower effect than US firms on equilibrium price, that could be explained by the desire of Japanese manufacturing firms to build up their shares in Taiwan during the period. In addition, the result indicates that the Japanese firms in Taiwan have more market power than US firms. According to theory model, this result also implies that elasticity of exchange rate pass-through of Japanese firms is smaller than the US firms’.

本文從產業組織的觀點出發，強調廠商間之策略性互動、貿易政策及成本結構對產業內貿易、開放程度及貿易不均衡比例的影響。研究方法上，主要以Brander & Krugman(1983)、Dei(1990)與翁永和(1994)的模型，作為實證之理論基礎，並以1991年台灣與世界各國製造業的產業內貿易、開放程度及貿易不均衡比例為本文的研究對象。 　　實證結果顯示：(1)產業內貿易（G-L指數）：關稅障礙提高，明顯地使產業內貿易下降。而產業集中度及研發比例對產業內貿易都有顯著的正向關係。其他變數則多不顯著。(2)開放程度（進出口總值佔國內總需求的比例）：關稅障礙提高，對開放程度有顯著正向關係。廠商家數、產品異質性及資本密集度別對開放程度有顯著的負向關係。其他變數則多不顯著。(3)貿易不均衡（淨出口值佔國內總需求的比例）：對順差的產業而言，只有關稅障礙和廠商家數對其順差比例具解釋能力，表示關稅上升或廠商數減少會增加產業之順差比例。對逆差的產業而言，相對市場大小、關稅障礙及廠商家數對逆差比率具解釋能力，表示當外國相對本國市場擴大、關稅調降及廠商家數減少，會加深其貿易赤字。而對整體製造業來說，則相對外國市場擴大、成本競爭力下降及關稅障礙上升，會減少產業內貿易盈餘比例、增加貿易赤字比例。

中國服務業近年來成長迅速，服務貿易額占世界比重亦愈來愈高，且截至2012年10月為止，中國已與香港、澳門、東協、新加坡、紐西蘭、智利、巴基斯坦、秘魯及哥斯大黎加等國家和地區簽署雙邊服務貿易協定，積極對外開放服務業市場。目前臺灣正與中國進行ECFA服務貿易協定的協商談判，因此深化研究中國服務業對外開放的戰略，以及分析中國至今已簽署之所有服務貿易協定的承諾內容與開放程度，是臺灣當前重要經貿課題之一。 本文使用文獻分析法探究中國服務業對外開放的戰略與政策，同時採用Marchetti and Roy（2008）的量化分析法，計算中國目前所有服務貿易協定之開放程度，並探討中國各大部門之開放情形，得到許多重要結論。首先，本文認為中國在服務業對外開放的戰略面和政策面實為相互呼應，於2001年加入WTO之後即全面擴大服務業的對外開放，並且日益重視服務貿易的發展，特別是新興服務貿易。其次，儘管中國於雙邊簽署許多服務貿易協定，但除了對香港（和澳門）新增約10.7%的開放程度之外，其餘國家平均僅新增2.6%的開放程度，可見中國實質開放程度並不高。另外，本文亦發現中國在採礦相關、醫院和旅遊等服務部門，會視部門類型之不同，決定不同之開放對象。最後，文末整理臺灣應於ECFA服務貿易談判盡力爭取開放之部門，並提出若干談判策略建議。 / In recent years, China has made remarkable progress in developing its service industry, and its proportion of trade in services in the world has risen significantly. Until October 2012, China has already signed nine bilateral agreements on trade in services with Hong Kong, Macao, ASEAN, Singapore, New Zealand, Chile, Pakistan, Peru and Costa Rica, showing its activeness and resolution to open up the services market. Taiwan is also negotiating with China about the negotiation of trade in services. Therefore, to understand China’s opening-up strategy and analyze both the content of commitments and the degree of openness in all agreements on trade in services China have signed, have become one of the major economic issues for Taiwan’s government. This thesis used literature analysis method to explore China’s opening-up strategies and policies in its service industry, and applied the quantitative method based on Marchetti and Roy(2008) to calculate the degree of openness in all agreements on trade in services China have signed. Meanwhile, the current situation of China’s service sectors was examined separately. There are three principal findings. First of all, China’s opening-up strategy in service industry is very consistent to its policies. Since China joined the WTO in 2001, it has not only significantly opened up its services market, but also made more efforts into the development of trade in services, especially the emerging sectors. Second, although China has signed many bilateral agreements on trade in services, the real degree of openness is not high. Except Hong Kong (and Macau), which gets approximately 10.7 percentages more in the degree of openness stipulated in the WTO agreement, the rest of countries only get 2.6 percentages more degree of the openness in average. Third, for particular purposes, China would give different treatment to different countries in service industries like services incidental to mining, hospital services, and touristic services. Finally, this thesis lists some service sectors, which Taiwan should strive for China’s opening-up on the negotiation of Trade in Services, and provides some suggestions for negotiation strategy.

自從2008年全球經濟衰退以來，歐元區經濟顯著的衰退，特別是歐元區各成員國的經濟表現有明顯的差異。在本文中，我們試就成員國「貿易開放程度」和「財政基本面」這兩個重要特徵，來詮釋歐元區經濟穩定這個議題。在第二章中，我們在貿易開放程度不同的國家下，比較貨幣同盟制度與浮動匯率制度對於負向衝擊產生的影響。我們發現當貨幣當局愈重視產出穩定時，相較於浮動匯率制度，貨幣同盟制度將使產出下降的更多。在第三章中，我們將短期私人債券及長期政府債券引入貨幣同盟的兩國DSGE模型。我們推斷，歐洲央行(ECB)的公共部門債券購買計劃（PSPP），對於不同財政狀況的成員國，有著不對稱的總體經濟影響。在第四章中，我們建立貨幣同盟經濟的最適貨幣政策模型。我們發現成員國間經濟差異，將影響貨幣同盟的整體福利水準。相較於傳統零利率最適貨幣政策文獻，本研究的結果顯示不論是權衡或承諾制度，增加公共部門債券購買將緩和貨幣同盟的經濟波動。 / Since the global recession in 2008, the economic performance of the Euro area has declined significantly. In particular, there have been great differences in the economic performance among member states in the Euro area. In this dissertation, we attempt to address the issue of economic stability by focusing on two key features: the trade openness and the fiscal fundamentals among member states. In Chapter 2, we compare the impacts of the adverse shocks on countries with different degrees of openness under the monetary union regime, and our finding shows that the monetary union will result in a greater decline in output if the monetary authority attaches a higher weight to output stabilization. In Chapter 3, we build a two-country DSGE model representing a monetary union with both short-term and long-term government bonds. We deduce that the ECB’s public sector purchase programme (PSPP) has asymmetric macroeconomic effects on member states under different fiscal fundamentals. In Chapter 4, we set up an optimal monetary policy model of a monetary union. We find that the differences in the economic performance of individual member states will influence the union-wide welfare. Comparing our results with classical literature of optimal monetary policy at zero lower bound, by adding the PSPP, our study indeed reflects lower volatility of the union-wide economy under either discretion or commitment.