Master of Science / Department of Agronomy / Robert M. Aiken / Increasing crop water use efficiency (WUE), the amount of biomass produced per unit water consumed, can enhance crop productivity and yield potential. The objective of the first study was to evaluate the factors affecting water productivity among eight sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench) genotypes, which differ in canopy architecture. Sorghum genotypes, grown under field conditions, showed significant differences in (a) biomass production, (b) water use, (c) intercepted radiation, (d) water productivity and (e) radiation use efficiency (RUE; the amount of biomass produced per unit of intercepted radiation which is suitable for photosynthesis). WUE and RUE were more strongly correlated to biomass production than to water use or intercepted radiation, respectively. RUE was positively correlated to WUE and tended to increase with internode length, the parameter used to characterize canopy architecture. These results demonstrate that increased utilization of radiation can increase water productivity in plants. Sorghum canopies that increase light transmission to mid−canopy leaves can increase RUE and also have the potential to increase crop productivity and WUE. The objective of the second study was to develop a quantitative model to predict leaf area index (LAI), a common quantification of canopy architecture, for sorghum from emergence to flag leaf stage. LAI was calculated from an algorithm developed to consider area of mature leaves (leaves with a ligule/collar), area of expanding leaves (leaves without a ligule/collar), total leaf area per plant and plant population. Slope of regression of modeled LAI on observed LAI varied for photoperiod sensitive (PPS) and insensitive (non−PPS) genotypes in 2010. A good correlation was found between the modeled and observed LAI with coefficient of determination (R[superscript]2) 0.96 in 2009 and 0.94 (non−PPS) and 0.88 (PPS) in 2010. These studies suggest that canopy architecture has prominent influence on water productivity of crops and quantification of canopy architecture through an LAI simulation model has potential in understanding RUE, WUE and crop productivity.

Master of Agribusiness / Department of Agricultural Economics / Daniel M. O'Brien / The Chicago wheat futures contract has received attention in recent years regarding non-convergence with SRW wheat cash prices. In 2009 the CME Group announced their decision to implement a market based mechanism to set daily storage rates at registered delivery locations for the Chicago wheat contract. The new market based mechanism is a variable storage rate (VSR) that monitors Chicago wheat futures spreads relative to financial full carry. The running average of the futures spread at the end of the contract observation period determines future changes to existing storage rates. The objective of this study is to determine whether or not the adoption of VSR mechanisms has had an impact on SRW wheat basis convergence in the Toledo, OH switching district. The Chicago wheat contract months that were studied using OLS regression models include July 2010, September 2010, December 2010, and March 2011. A final OLS regression model examining the cumulative data collected from these four contract months concludes the research. The explanatory variables used to study SRW wheat basis convergence in Toledo includes days to delivery, all wheat ending stocks as a percentage of use for the United States, and VSR. In two of the regression models for the contract months studied VSR found to have a statistically significant impact, i.e., the December 2010 and March 2011 models. In the cumulative regression model covering all four wheat contract months VSR was also found to have a statistically significant impact on SRW wheat basis convergence. The regression models in this analysis appear to contain some degree of multicollinearity, a statistical condition in which the explanatory variables tend to move collinearly or “together” with each other. Multicollinearity oftentimes can result in deceptively high and inconsistent statistical results in econometric models.

Master of Science / Department of Agricultural Economics / Andrew Barkley / This research identifies and quantifies the impact of biophysical and economic variables on Kansas crop acreage and yields for the period 1977- 2007. Due to long production time requirements, agricultural producers must make vital decisions with imperfect information, based on expectations of future agronomic and economic conditions. This research analyzes the impact of price, climate, and yield expectations on crop acreage allocations and yield responses for the four major commodities produced in Kansas: corn, soybeans, wheat, and grain sorghum (milo). By modeling and analyzing both biophysical and economic variables, total supply response can be estimated for potential future changes in prices, yields, climate, and weather outcomes. The analysis of both biophysical and economic conditions allows for the estimation of supply response in the short and long run. The results provide updated, more precise results than previous research, which has often separated acreage and yield response.

Master of Science / Department of Entomology / Brian P. McCornack / Robert J. Whitworth / No-till management of soybean benefits producers by lowering input costs and retaining soil moisture, but may also provide optimal conditions for increasing populations of soil-inhabiting pests. For Kansas soybean, damaging populations of soil-inhabiting isopods (Malacostraca: Isopoda) have been observed in fields under no-tillage management. To control damage to soybean stands from feeding isopods, current management strategies need to be evaluated. The objectives of my research were to evaluate the effects of chemical and cultural control combinations (seed treatment and planting date, planting date and seed size, seed treatment and natural crop residue removal, and seeding rate and seed treatment) on soybean stand densities exposed to natural isopod populations, and to evaluate the effects of burning crop residue on isopod populations and emergence rates in soybean under no-tillage management. Field studies were conducted in consecutive years (2009 and 2010) in two separate soybean fields within each year. All fields were under no-till management and had a history of damaging isopod populations. In the second chapter, we demonstrated that seed treatment with an insecticide is not a reliable strategy. Doubling normal seeding rates can potentially reduce the number of trips a grower makes across a field (single, high-density versus multiple, low-density plantings). In doing so, growers may save time and money (e.g., fuel). A high seeding rate (563,380/ha), along with a low rate (50 g a.i. / 100 kg seed) of neonicotinoid seed treatment, appears to improve soybean stands (P < 0.05). No other combinations of control methods appeared to affect stand density. In the third chapter, we show burning to be an effective strategy to directly influence isopod populations but its overall effect on soybean stands needs further investigation.

Master of Arts / Department of Geography / John A. Harrington Jr / Global and regional climates have changed significantly in recent decades. One of the sectors most affected by a changing climate is agriculture. While the scientific consensus is clear that climate has changed, a declining number of Americans believe in the seriousness of “global warming”. Bridging this knowledge gap will require a more in depth understanding of public perceptions of climate change. The research reported here addressed public perceptions of climate and environmental change in north central Kansas and found that farmers are aware that climate has changed over their lifetimes. Local residents were found to be aware on ongoing environmental changes and adopting changes in land management practices that balance improving environmental conditions with the need to make a profit. More information is needed on what information sources and presentation styles would work best for the communication of updated information, both for communicating with farmers and with educators.

Master of Agribusiness / Department of Agricultural Economics / Allen M. Featherstone / Land is typically the highest value category of assets that farmers and ranchers have on their balance sheets. The value of land is affected by inflation. Understanding the effect of inflation on the land market helps farmers make better land pricing decisions and better asset management decisions. Using Treasury Bills and Farm Credit Bonds, future inflation expectations and agricultural risk premiums can be estimated. With the recent government stimulation of the economy and the resulting large amount of money infused into the economy, inflation is becoming an increasing concern with investors. Economic theory suggests that this infusion of money will affect future interest rates and ultimately the value of land given the inverse relationship between interest rates and the value of land. These lingering affects occur with the rise and fall of yield rates for Treasury Bills and Farm Credit bonds. Farm Credit bonds are sold at a premium over Treasury Bills. This premium indicates the market-assessed additional risk that farmers have to pay for their operating loans and other mortgages. Even though land values are affected by inflation, other things affect land values such as recreational use, development, and natural resource exploration. A combination of inflation and these other affects can greatly affect land prices.

Master of Science / Department of Entomology / Frank H. Arthur / Kun Yan Zhu / Experiments were conducted to assess the effects of direct and indirect exposure scenarios, different degrees of residual flour, open and obstructed positions, and seasonal temperature variations on the efficacy of synergized pyrethrin against the red flour beetle, Tribolium castaneum (Herbst) and the confused flour beetle, Tribolium confusum Jacquelin du Val. To evaluate effects of direct and indirect exposures of T. castaneum and T. confusum eggs, larvae, pupae, or eggs to the insecticide aerosol within a flour mill, the following treatments were made to each life stage: insects treated with aerosol and transferred to treated or untreated flour, untreated insects transferred to treated flour, and insects and flour combined and treated together. Different degrees of harborage or sanitation levels were created by exposing T. confusum larvae, pupae, and adults to pyrethrin aerosol in Petri dishes containing 0, 0.1, 1, 5, and 10 g of wheat flour. Effects of pyrethrin dispersal in open and obstructed positions and seasonal temperature variations were assessed by exposing T. confusum pupae and adults in open positions and inside wooden boxes (1 m long, 20 cm wide, and 5, 10, or 20 cm high) inside experimental sheds maintained at target temperatures of 22, 27, and 32 °C. Results showed that when T. castaneum and T. confusum were directly exposed to aerosol without the flour source, or with a low amount of flour at open exposed areas, the aerosol provided good control against all life stages of T. castaneum and T. confusum. However, when insects were indirectly exposed (treated together with flour or untreated insects were transferred to treated flour), or treated together with deeper flour amounts, and exposed inside the boxes, the efficacy was greatly reduced. Eggs and pupae of both the species were more susceptible compared to larvae and adults. Additionally, the moribund adults initially observed in indirect exposure treatments, or at the deeper flour depth and exposure positions insides the boxes, were better able to recover. Generally, temperatures in the range of 22-32 °C had no significant effects on overall efficacy of pyrethrin aerosol.

Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Grain Science & Industry / Dirk E. Maier / The feasibility of utilizing cellulosic biomass as an energy feedstock is dominated by factors such as facility location, feedstock availability, and transportation cost. The main goal of this research was to develop a GIS-based method that will generate more accurate biomass residue availability data as input data to biomass supply chain logistics models. This research was carried out in four objectives to ensure that, as improvement parameters were implemented, the methodology remained valid and became more accurate. The first objective compared an existing method to a proposed method to quantify feedstock availability given a facility’s location using a geographical information system. The proposed method proved to be more robust (by a factor of 1.45) than the existing method because it calculates the distance from the facility to farm fields using a real road network, and the acreage of crop-specific fields in a given service area based on crop season specific satellite images. The second objective implemented two improvement parameters to the previously proposed constant removal rate (CRR) method. It examined the effect of field-level yield variance and variable removal rates (VRR) on quantification of the feedstock availability supply for a biorefinery. The new VRR method predicted on average 113,384 ± 38,770 dry tons (DT) of additional residue per service area compared to the CRR method. The third objective further improved the VRR method by utilizing multiple crops as biomass sources and estimating VRR based on crop rotation. On average a 3,793 ± 5,733 DT per service area difference resulted when increasing the number of crop-specific VRR rates used to estimate feedstock quantification. The supplementary use of crop-specific VRR rates affected residue availability given a crop’s residue removal rate is influenced by crop yield, crop rotation, soil characteristics, as well as field location and management. The fourth objective assessed the suitability of potential feedstock storage locations (FSL) to store multi-crop biomass remotely based on a spatial and location-allocation analysis. The sensitivity analysis showed that scenario 2 (16-km; 10-mile service area) appeared to be the more cost-effective option given fewer FSLs (35) were needed and more demand points could be serviced (98.1%) compared to scenario 1 (8-km; 5-mile service area; 62.1% demand points; 50 FSLs), despite presumably higher transportation costs.

Master of Agribusiness / Department of Agricultural Economics / Allen M. Featherstone / Since 1977, the State of Illinois has used a use-value method of assessing farmland for property taxes. The method establishes farmland value by determining a five year average of net income from the land that is capitalized using a five year average interest rate. Other real estate in Illinois follows a different procedure for assessment. For example, residential property is assessed at one-third of its market value. The differences among the methods of assessment for farmland and other types of real estate, along with recent market increases in farmland values and a strong agriculture economy, have led some to question the current method of farmland assessment. The objective of this thesis is to determine the financial impact to farmers resulting from changing from the current use-value assessment of farmland to market-value assessment. This is accomplished with two sub-objectives: determine the potential change in farmland values that could occur and to determine the impact on net farm income that could occur if property tax policy was changed to market-value assessment. To accomplish the first sub-objective, a model was developed to estimate farmland values in Illinois based on the current use-value assessment property tax policy. This model was then adjusted to estimate farmland values under a market-value assessment property tax policy. The models demonstrated that farmland values could fall 53 percent, or an average of $2,548 per acre, in the year immediately following implementation of a tax policy change. Once farmland values stabilize after implementation of the tax policy change, farmland values would be 30 percent less, or an average of $1,875 per acre less, under market-value assessment than under use-value assessment. A simulation of net farm income over a ten year time frame was then conducted to estimate the potential change in net farm income that could occur from a change to market-value assessment. Like farmland values, the greatest impact to net farm incomes occur in the first year market-value assessment is implemented. Farmland values and the resulting property taxes then stabilize during later years. The simulation of net farm income over a ten year time frame estimates that net farm income would be 8 percent lower per year, or a reduction in net farm incomes of an average of $12,721 per year, under market-value assessment. The analysis also showed the potential for an average of a 2 percent increase in the probability that net farm income would fall below zero over the simulation time frame. The analysis demonstrates that a change from use-value assessment to market-value assessment of farmland could reduce farmland values and net farm incomes. Such a change in policy is not in the best interests of farmers or the agriculture industry in Illinois, as the reduced values and incomes would have wide reaching negative consequences that could reach beyond farmers and farmland owners.

Master of Agribusiness / Department of Agricultural Economics / Christine Wilson / During the past two decades, there has been major consolidation in the grain handling industry. Staying competitive in today’s environment involves finding projects that add value from a strategic geographic standpoint and a revenue generation standpoint. This study examines several economic factors regarding growth opportunities of facility assets that exist in Northern Kansas, and what the associated cost structure would look like based on a business feasibility study. This study researched the county production by volume and acreage devoted to crop production as well as bid structures and freight spreads of competitors currently in the region today. It also involved researching the margin structures, and it considered a strategic decision about the size of facility that could be built on the existing margin opportunity. Several economic theories were used to derive the feasibility of this research and measure the profitability of the project. Farmer sentiment was polled and a focus group was assembled to understand the opportunity that Scoular may have in the region. The results found a region that provides a steady volume of crop production and margins that are typical of those that Scoular is experiencing in other regions of the state. The research also found the farmers of this geography, receptive to more competition entering the market place.