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Anpassung ist ein komplexes soziales Phänomen, bei dem das Klimarisiko in verschiedenen sozialen und ökologischen Kontexten reduziert wird. Der 6. Sachstandsbericht des Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change zeigt eine besorgniserregende Realität: Mit zunehmender globaler Erwärmung werden der Anpassung Grenzen gesetzt sein, was darauf hinweist, dass Anpassung allein nicht ausreicht, um den Auswirkungen des Klimawandels entgegenzuwirken. Länder im globalen Süden tragen paradoxerweise die Hauptlast des Klimawandels, obwohl sie am wenigsten für sein Auftreten verantwortlich sind. Es besteht die dringende Notwendigkeit, besser zu verstehen, wo und warum Anpassung stattfindet, was ihren Erfolg beeinflusst und wie die Anpassungsfähigkeit gestärkt werden kann. Die Quantifizierung der Anpassung ist aufgrund ihrer Komplexität schwierig, aber entscheidend für fundierte Entscheidungen und globale Zusammenarbeit. Herkömmliche Klimafolgenabschätzungen vernachlässigen oft die Anpassung oder verwenden einen stark stilisierten Ansatz, was das Potenzial für Anpassung verzerrt und die Notwendigkeit des Klimaschutzes herunterspielt. Es ist wichtig, Anpassung in quantitative Bewertungen einzubeziehen, um fundierte Entscheidungen zu treffen. Diese Dissertation entwickelt Indexe für anpassungsrelevante Maßnahmen im Landwirtschaftssektor und projiziert ihre Umsetzung im 21. Jahrhundert auf der Grundlage verschiedener sozioökonomischer Szenarien. Ergebnisse zeigen die Bedeutung von Governance, Bildung und finanziellen Ressourcen für die Maximierung des Anpassungspotenzials. Länder mit geringer Entwicklung und begrenzter Anpassungsfähigkeit zeigen das größte Verbesserungspotenzial. Die Bewältigung dieser Herausforderungen wird jedoch Jahrzehnte dauern. Die Verbesserung der Anpassungsfähigkeit ist von höchster Bedeutung, nicht nur im Bereich des Klimawandels, sondern auch in breiteren Entwicklungskontexten. Diese Dissertation bietet Einblicke zur Verbesserung der Klimaresilienz und umfassenden Klimafolgenabschätzungen. / Adaptation is a multifaceted social phenomenon where climate risk is navigated and responded to within various social and environmental contexts. The 6th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change highlights a concerning reality: as global warming increases, there will be limits to what adaptation can accomplish, indicating that it will not always suffice to counter the escalating impacts of climate change. Countries in the Global South, often facing the greatest adaptation challenges, paradoxically, are projected to bear the major brunt of climate change despite holding the least responsibility for its occurrence. Given these prospects, there is an urgent need to better understand where and why adaptation is taking place, what drives its success in some places over others, and where efforts are vital for enhancing adaptive capacity. Furthermore, it becomes imperative to determine the upper limit of what adaptation can accomplish and which conditions are necessary to exploit its full potential, in order to fully grasp the risks posed by climate change. Quantifying adaptation is difficult due to its complex multi-level and cross-sectoral nature. Yet, it is crucial for integrating adaptation into climate impact assessments, essential for informed decision-making and global cooperation. Conventional climate impact assessments often neglect the inclusion of adaptation and adaptive capacity, or if addressed, they often adopt a highly stylized approach. This poses the risk of misrepresenting the potential for adaptation, likely overemphasizing its effectiveness while downplaying the need for climate mitigation. Projecting climate impacts without considering adaptation distorts the current reality of societal adjustments, making it essential to provide quantifiable insights into future adaptive capacity. This thesis addresses these challenges by developing three distinct indices for adaptation-relevant measures in the agricultural sector to understand the extent of their implementation and their socioeconomic determinants. These indices are projected throughout the 21st century based on various socioeconomic trajectories. My findings highlight the significance of strong governance, higher education levels, and improved financial resources as key drivers that can empower countries to maximize their adaptation potential. Throughout my analyses, a consistent pattern emerges: countries with modest socioeconomic development and limited adaptive capacity, especially in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, exhibit the greatest potential for improvement. However, overcoming these challenges will span several decades, extending well beyond the latter half of this century. Enhancing adaptive capacity and integrating it into quantitative assessments is of paramount importance not only within the climate change field but also in broader developmental contexts. This thesis encompasses a variety of subjects, providing interconnected insights to enhance the comprehension of pathways to climate resilience and improved impact assessments.

This thesis presents a new perspective on the study of past farm success and failure; it builds on the concepts of resilience and vulnerability to construct a theoretical framework which integrates environmental, historical and ethnographical data. The basic framework establishes that the resilience or vulnerability of a social-ecological system is a function of three factors: i) the exposure of the system to external (environmental) stresses, ii) the sensitivity of the system to these stresses and iii) the ability of the human component of the system to respond to them. The research focused on the component of human capacity of response (the sum of coping and adaptive capacity) within this framework. The temporal scale of the study was the 18th century, although reference is made to earlier periods for comparison. The location of the study area was Mývatnssveit, a livestock-based farming community in northern Iceland, while the spatial scale of the study is that of individual farms in the area. The results showed that successful farms had a higher capacity of response than failed farms, and that this was conferred by a greater availability and quality of resources, including human resources, natural resources and productive resources (those directly involved in agriculture). Human resources were assessed by records of number of servants per farm and by evidence of learning/knowledge transfer obtained via micromorphological analyses of home-field soils. Natural resources considered to be of particular importance were fish and eggs. Indicators of productive resources included tax value, land rent, livestock numbers and phosphorus content in home-fields. The latter revealed that the soil condition pre-settlement was linked to its post-settlement quality. An analysis of present day perceptions of historical farm abandonment in the area corresponds with the conclusions reached through the data integration in placing the human factor above the environmental one in influencing success and failure. The thesis concludes by highlighting the individuality of the study farms and the historical resilience of the livestock-based farming system. Additionally, areas of potential for future research are identified.

This thesis examines the susceptibility of human health to climate-related stresses in the rural municipality of Addington Highlands, Ontario. Human health is sensitive to climatic variations and change, and public health systems play a role in managing climate-related risks. Canada is generally deemed to have considerable capacity to adapt to vulnerabilities associated with climate change, yet there is variability among communities in their exposure and ability to manage health risks. This thesis examines the health-related vulnerability of the community of Addington Highlands. Drawing upon data gained from key informant interviews and newspaper articles, as well as other secondary data sources, the thesis documents climate-related health risks, outlines the programs and services available to deal with those risks, and assesses the capacity of the community to adapt to future climate conditions and risks. Conditions such as storms, heat stress and forest fires currently present health risks in the area, and they are expected to become more prevalent with climate change. The health risks of Lyme disease, West Nile virus and algal blooms are likely to increase in the future as the climate continues to change. Adaptation to these risks is evident in several of Addington Highlands public health and emergency management programs. The community’s adaptive capacity is strengthened by its social networks and institutional flexibility, but it is constrained by its aging population, limits to the availability and access to health care services, and challenges relating to the retention of service providers. An important strategy to assist adaptation to climate change risks to health is the promotion of public awareness, a strategy to which this research contributes. This thesis research serves to identify and better understand vulnerabilities, and help stimulate actions toward preparing Addington Highlands for possible future climate-related risks.

Throughout northern Fennoscandia, reindeer husbandry is a central part in the cultural heritage of the Sámi people. In its history, Sámi culture and reindeer husbandry have undergone significant adaptations to environmental, social and political challenges. Landscape changes on the winter grazing grounds were mainly driven by resource exploitation, especially by industrialized forestry. Important grazing resources were lost, i.e. terrestrial and arboreal lichens that constitute essential key elements in the herding year. In my thesis, I explore the consequences of these transformations in Swedish boreal forests for reindeer husbandry. The multi-disciplinary approach integrates interview studies, ecological fieldwork and theoretical modeling of forest development. I emphasize the understanding of landscapes as multi-dimensional concepts with ecological, social and economic components. They interact in determining the amount of landscape fragmentation in physical or administrative ways, or in enabling reindeer herders to move between different landscape elements. These elements, e.g. forest stands of different ages, can react differently to winter weather. Thus, they enable reindeer herders to adjust their grazing grounds according to the availability of forage, mediated by snow conditions. However, forestry practices have reduced the abundance of old-growth forests, and therewith the functionality of the landscape. By comparing snow conditions in different forest types, I show that multi-layered canopies can offer a more diverse pattern of snow hardness. However, the interaction between forest characteristics with snow is strongly dependent on weather conditions, e.g. the timing and intensity of warm spells. The prevalence of single-layered forest stands therefore can lead to a reduction in snow variability and potentially restricts the availability of suitable grazing grounds for reindeer. If snow conditions hinder reindeer in foraging on terrestrial lichens, old forests formerly supplied reindeer with arboreal lichens. I show how industrial forestry has reduced the availability of this emergency forage by the reduction of old forests and increased landscape fragmentation and analyze the consequences of different management strategies on future habitat availability for arboreal lichens. By integrating these results into a model of forest management, I offer insights into consequences arising from different priorities that either favor timber production or the development of lichen-rich grazing grounds. In conclusion, I emphasize the importance of landscape diversity, as well as the ability to make use of this diversity, as a source of adaptability of reindeer husbandry to changes in grazing conditions by e.g. winter weather dynamics. A shared future of reindeer husbandry and forestry could be fostered by encouraging the social-ecological co-evolution of multiple use landscapes and the enhancement of the cultural and biological significance of the Swedish boreal forests.

<p>This thesis investigates the adaptation to climate change that is taking place in the WaterSupply and Waste Water (WSW) sector of the Stockholm Region. The adaptation processis analyzed in terms of building adaptive capacity and implementing adaptive decisions.Theories on organizational learning and the concept of an organization’s adaptation spaceare used to understand the factors that influence the adaptation process and the capacityof the studied WSW organizations to adapt to climate change. A case study approach hasbeen used and by focusing the research on four regional WSW organizations – thatcomprise a majority of the region’s WSW activities – it is argued that conclusionsrelevant to the region’s WSW sector as a whole can be made. Semi-structured interviewswith the complete management board – in three out of four organizations – and officialdocuments and reports, are the main sources of primary data for the analysis.The results show that adaptation to climate change is occuring in the WSW sector of theStockholm Region. The adaptation is mainly taking the form of building adaptivecapacity and there is only limited evidence of implementation of adaptive decisions. Theresearch suggests that there are few technical and organizational limitations foradaptation to take place and that the main factors influencing the adaptation space of thesector is how the climate change issue and risks are interpreted and perceptions of howthe WSW organizations should function and use their limited economical resources. Twoconclusions are drawn from these results: first, factors influencing the feasibility andattractiveness of different adaptation options need to be included and analysed in order tounderstand the actual adaptation space of an organization. Second, due to the factorsidentified as influencing the adaptation space, it is unlikely, at present, that robustinfrastructure solutions – which have been suggested in the literature as a viable way todeal with the intrinsic uncertainties related to climate change – can be implemented in theWSW sector of the Stockholm Region solely due to concerns of climate change.</p>

This thesis examines the susceptibility of human health to climate-related stresses in the rural municipality of Addington Highlands, Ontario. Human health is sensitive to climatic variations and change, and public health systems play a role in managing climate-related risks. Canada is generally deemed to have considerable capacity to adapt to vulnerabilities associated with climate change, yet there is variability among communities in their exposure and ability to manage health risks. This thesis examines the health-related vulnerability of the community of Addington Highlands. Drawing upon data gained from key informant interviews and newspaper articles, as well as other secondary data sources, the thesis documents climate-related health risks, outlines the programs and services available to deal with those risks, and assesses the capacity of the community to adapt to future climate conditions and risks. Conditions such as storms, heat stress and forest fires currently present health risks in the area, and they are expected to become more prevalent with climate change. The health risks of Lyme disease, West Nile virus and algal blooms are likely to increase in the future as the climate continues to change. Adaptation to these risks is evident in several of Addington Highlands public health and emergency management programs. The community’s adaptive capacity is strengthened by its social networks and institutional flexibility, but it is constrained by its aging population, limits to the availability and access to health care services, and challenges relating to the retention of service providers. An important strategy to assist adaptation to climate change risks to health is the promotion of public awareness, a strategy to which this research contributes. This thesis research serves to identify and better understand vulnerabilities, and help stimulate actions toward preparing Addington Highlands for possible future climate-related risks.

This dissertation presents the results of an investigation of rural households’ ability to adapt to changing environmental and climatic conditions. It presents soil degradation arising from worsening soil erosion, leaching, depletion of nutrients due to years of uninterrupted cultivation and low levels of use of fertilizers; uncontrolled deforestation leading to loss of biodiversity; and climate variability seen through longer dry seasons as well as delayed and falling levels of precipitation as key issues leading to the vulnerability of households in Kakemega District in Western Province of Kenya. An enquiry has been made into the adaptation strategies of the rural households and a composite household adaptive capacity index (HACI) developed which is then used in hypothesis testing. Despite a situation laden with serious soil degradation and fears that credit taken by rural households often end up in low-return necessity-based enterprises or in consumption expenditure, the dissertation shows that the use of credit positively contributes to the HACI as does regular and optimal use of farm inputs. Diversification into non-agricultural activities, on-farm planting of trees and migration with remittances were some of the adaptation strategies observed among households with relatively high adaptive capacity indices while a secondary school level of education alongside the possession of non-land and non-livestock assets were key factors clearly associated with high adaptive capacity indices. Regarding adaptation decision making, the household head was observed to be the single most important actor in a process which was often characterized by authoritarianism. The household head’s level of information or awareness of environmental changes and open options proved to be important for adaptation. It was revealed that membership to groups and networks as well as government and NGO-activities were the most important factors in informing the household heads. Given small land sizes and a high incidence of other negative shocks, household heads tended to adopt and implement only tried and tested adaptation actions. During the study behind this dissertation, pioneers in the implementation of new strategies were observed to be better informed household heads or beneficiaries of incentives from the promoters of such strategies. Newer efforts aimed at the promotion of adaptability would therefore gain wider acceptance and adoption if preceded by a pilot phase carefully designed to include committed opinion shapers who would provide a demonstration effect. / In dieser Dissertation wurden ländliche Haushalte bezüglich ihrer Anpassungsfähigkeit an den Umwelt- und Klimawandel untersucht. Desweiteren geht die Dissertation unter anderen der Frage über Strategien nach, die von ländlichen Haushalten angesichts der Auswirkungen von Umweltproblemen eingesetzt werden. Die Feldforschung wurde unter den Haushalten im Kakamega Distrikt in Kenia getätigt. Eine Abnahme der Bodenproduktivität ist durch Erosion, einem Auslaugen und einer ununterbrochenen Kultivierung in Kakamega entstanden. Desweiteren führt eine unkontrollierte Abholzung mit resultierendem Verlust von heimischer Flora und Fauna sowie längeren Trockenperioden mit verspätetem Einsatz von Regenfällen und einer damit verbundenen Niederschlagsminimierung zu einer schwierigen Lebenssituation für die ländlichen Haushalte, die hauptsächlich durch Landwirtschaft ihre Existenz sichern. Diese Situation (gekennzeichnet durch Abholzung, Verlust der Artenvielfalt, Verminderung der Bodenqualität und unregelmäßige und wechselhafte Niederschlag) wird in dieser Arbeit als Umweltwandel (Environmental Change oder Environmental Stress) bezeichnet. Es konnte unter anderem als eines der Ergebnisse der Arbeit festgestellt werden, dass die ländlichen Haushalte aufgrund schlechten Bodens, unkontrollierten Abholzungen, längeren Trockenzeiten und sinkenden Niederschlagsmengen sehr anfällig sind. Durch den Einsatz des zusammengesetzten Haushalt-Anpassungsfähigkeitsindex (Household Adaptive Capacity Index = HACI), der im Rahmen dieser Dissertation entwickelt wurde, konnten die Bedenken gemindert werden, dass Kredite, die an ärmeren ländlichen Haushalten vergeben werden, oft für Notgründungen und Konsumausgaben eingesetzt werden. Es hat sich herauskristallisiert, dass die optimale und regelmäßige Nutzung von Düngemitteln sowie der Einsatz von Krediten, die HACI positiv beeinflusst. Als weitere Ergebnisse konnte beobachtet werden, dass Haushalte mit höheren Anpassungsfähigkeitsindexen Anpassungstrategien wie Diversifizierung in nicht-agra Aktivitäten, Aufforstung und Migration verwenden, und, dass ein Sekundarschulabschluss und der Besitz von Wirtschaftsgütern mit hohen Haushalt-Anpassungsfähigkeitsindexen assoziiert sind. Zum Anpassungsentscheidungspozess konnte festgestellt werden, dass Haushaltoberhäupter, die wichtigste Akteure sind. Entscheidungsweisen dieser Haushaltoberhäupten lassen oftmals autoritäre Züge erkennen. So entscheiden die Haushaltoberhäupter häufig auch, in welcher Art und Weise Haushalte sich anpassen dürfen. Von daher ist das Wissen des Haushaltoberhauptes über die herrschenden Umweltbedingungen und die offenen Strategien oder Handlungspielräume von Bedeutung. Die Feldforschung zeigte, dass die Zugehörigkeit zu einzelnen Gruppen sowie die Bemühungen von der Regierung und den Nichtregierungsorganisationen wichtig für die Erhöhung des Wissens von Haushaltoberhäupten sind. Da der durchschnittliche Haushaltgrundstückbesitz sinkt und andere negative Ereignisse wie Krankheit und Tod zunehmend Angst verbreiten, setzen Haushaltsoberhäupter häufig nur dann empfohlene Strategien zur Anpassung ein, wenn sie beispielsweise einen Erfolg bei einem Nachbar verzeichnen können. Oftmals werden Anpassungsstrategien auch bei finanziellen Anreizen, zum Beispiel von Förderern, umgesetzt. Es würden mit hoher Wahrscheinlichkeit mehr Anpassungstrategien von ländlichen Haushalten umgesetzt werden, wenn diese Strategien Pilotprojekte beinhalten würden, die Haushalten das Zusammenspiel von Anpassung und Ernteertrag präsentieren.

The southwest Yukon social-ecological system (SES) is marked by complex changes, including a climate induced directionally changing landscape, an increasing shift away from traditional subsistence lifestyles, and changing species composition. The addition of “new” ungulate species through human and non-human introductions has spawned many management questions. This study developed qualitative scenarios through a participatory process, utilizing scientific and traditional knowledge from within the social-ecological system’s local context. The study worked with local management groups to address two main objectives: 1.) Collaboratively envision alternate future scenarios with management groups from which to collaboratively develop management goals for wood bison, elk, and mule deer to cope with the changing social and ecological landscape of the southwest Yukon and 2.) Discover resource managers’ and local stakeholders’ perceptions of scenario planning as a method identify wildlife management goals. A series of three workshops with the Alsek Renewable Resource Council, the Yukon Wood Bison Technical Team, and the Yukon Elk Management Planning Team addressed the first objective, while two surveys addressed the second objective. Major findings included southwest Yukon-specific wildlife management goals and considerations for using scenario planning in a wildlife management context. The scenarios themselves warn of plausible events that might unfold, such as novel disease and pest outbreaks. Several participants mentioned that the value attributed to different species will change based on scenario context. This prompts warnings for wildlife managers not to “shut the door” on a species today that may be highly valuable for solving food security challenges of the future. Findings suggest that one of scenario planning’s most significant contribution is a forum for people to share perspectives and develop trust and understanding of one another. All participants valued the holistic and long-term thinking aspects of scenario planning, seeing it as a complementary tool to enhance existing planning processes. Major resource management plans and/or resource development projects in the future should consider using a scenarios approach to better articulated goals in terms of whole system impacts.