Modeling or simulating Complex Adaptive Systems (CASs) is both important and challenging. As the name suggests, CASs are systems consisting of large numbers of interacting adaptive compartments. They are studied across a wide range of disciplines and have unique properties. They model such systems as multicellular organisms, ecosystems, social networks, and many more. They are complex, in the sense that they are dynamical, nonlinear, and heterogeneous systems that cannot be simply scaled up/down. However, they are self-organized, in the sense that they can evolve into specific structures/patterns without guidance from outside sources. Modeling/Simulating CASs is challenging, not only because of the high complexity, but also because of the difficulty in explaining the underlying mechanism behind self-organization. The goal of this research is to provide a modeling framework as well as a simulation platform to advance the study of CASs. We argue that there are common principles behind self-organization processes of different systems across different domains. We explore, analyze, and perform experiments into these principles. We propose and implement modeling templates such as short-term and long-term adaptivity. We incorporate techniques from systems theory, employing computing paradigms, including multi-agent system and asynchronous message passing. We also consider an application from the biological domain to model and simulate under our framework, treating it as a CAS for validation purposes. / Ph. D.

Yes / Purpose The objective of this study was to advance our knowledge of pharmaceutical supply chain resilience using Complex Adaptive System theory (CAS). Design/methodology/approach An exploratory research design which adopted a qualitative approach was used to achieve the study’s research objective. Qualitative data were gathered through 23 semi-structured interviews with key supply chain actors across the PSC in the United Kingdom (UK). Findings The findings demonstrate that CAS, as a theory, provides a systemic approach to understanding PSC resilience by taking into consideration the various elements (environment, PSC characteristics, vulnerabilities and resilience strategies) that make up the entire system. It also provides explanations for key findings, like the impact of power, conflict and complexity in the PSC, which are influenced by the interactions between supply chain actors and as such increase its susceptibility to the negative impact of disruption. Furthermore, the antecedents for building resilience strategies were the outcome of the decision-making process referred to as co-evolution from a CAS perspective. Originality/value Based on the data collected, the study was able to reflect on the relationships, interactions and interfaces between actors in the PSC using the CAS theory, which supports the proposition that resilience strategies can be adopted by supply chain actors to enhance this service supply chain. This is a novel empirical study of resilience across multiple levels of the PSC and as such adds valuable new knowledge about the phenomenon and the use of CAS theory as a vehicle for exploration and knowledge construction in other supply chains.

BACKGROUND:This paper proposes a novel model for homeopathic remedy action on living systems. Research indicates that homeopathic remedies (a) contain measurable source and silica nanoparticles heterogeneously dispersed in colloidal solution / (b) act by modulating biological function of the allostatic stress response network (c) evoke biphasic actions on living systems via organism-dependent adaptive and endogenously amplified effects / (d) improve systemic resilience.DISCUSSION:The proposed active components of homeopathic remedies are nanoparticles of source substance in water-based colloidal solution, not bulk-form drugs. Nanoparticles have unique biological and physico-chemical properties, including increased catalytic reactivity, protein and DNA adsorption, bioavailability, dose-sparing, electromagnetic, and quantum effects different from bulk-form materials. Trituration and/or liquid succussions during classical remedy preparation create "top-down" nanostructures. Plants can biosynthesize remedy-templated silica nanostructures. Nanoparticles stimulate hormesis, a beneficial low-dose adaptive response. Homeopathic remedies prescribed in low doses spaced intermittently over time act as biological signals that stimulate the organism's allostatic biological stress response network, evoking nonlinear modulatory, self-organizing change. Potential mechanisms include time-dependent sensitization (TDS), a type of adaptive plasticity/metaplasticity involving progressive amplification of host responses, which reverse direction and oscillate at physiological limits. To mobilize hormesis and TDS, the remedy must be appraised as a salient, but low level, novel threat, stressor, or homeostatic disruption for the whole organism. Silica nanoparticles adsorb remedy source and amplify effects. Properly-timed remedy dosing elicits disease-primed compensatory reversal in direction of maladaptive dynamics of the allostatic network, thus promoting resilience and recovery from disease.SUMMARY:Homeopathic remedies are proposed as source nanoparticles that mobilize hormesis and time-dependent sensitization via non-pharmacological effects on specific biological adaptive and amplification mechanisms. The nanoparticle nature of remedies would distinguish them from conventional bulk drugs in structure, morphology, and functional properties. Outcomes would depend upon the ability of the organism to respond to the remedy as a novel stressor or heterotypic biological threat, initiating reversals of cumulative, cross-adapted biological maladaptations underlying disease in the allostatic stress response network. Systemic resilience would improve. This model provides a foundation for theory-driven research on the role of nanomaterials in living systems, mechanisms of homeopathic remedy actions and translational uses in nanomedicine.

This dissertation consists of a development of the notion of equilibrium in non-cooperative games (introduced by John Nash in his doctoral dissertation submitted in May 1950) from the point of view of games played by complex adaptive systems (such as States) who adapt to an asymmetric distribution of bargaining power. The main ingredient of this dissertation is the notion of the contextually normalized solution, that implies that players routinely repeat strategies that work, and that an asymmetric complex game will be in a stable state so long as the set of normal strategies consists of the stronger players’ most preferred and the weaker players’ least disliked strategies. There is no other generality in rational behaviour; all else is relative to the frame of reference.

Este trabalho apresenta um método empírico para previsão de sobrecargas transientes em sistemas computacionais por meio de modelagem dinâmica. A técnica, baseada em aproximações lineares e invariantes no tempo, tem como objetivo identificar a capacidade de um sistema computacional absorver variações na carga de trabalho. Experimentalmente, a identificação dessa capacidade do sistema pode ser feita por meio de técnicas de avaliação de desempenho, em que a abordagem prevalente é a estimação da capacidade estática em regime estacionário de operação, observando-se o desempenho sob demanda constante. Entretanto, essa avaliação não considera o regime transiente do sistema, i.e durante o período de restabelecimento ao regime estacionário após uma perturbação, e durante o qual, o esforço exigido pode ser bastante diverso, e potencialmente acima daquele apurado sob condições de regime estacionário. A proposta deste trabalho é a formulação de uma metodologia para avaliação de desempenho em regime transiente em sistemas computacionais sob carga de trabalho variável e que forneça informação para o dimensionamento de recursos e políticas de controle de admissão que evitem sobrecargas por efeitos transitórios. A metodologia baseia-se na parametrização de um modelo dinâmico a partir de ensaios experimentais, considerando perturbações bruscas e de longa duração, e os resultados são avaliados por comparação das predições do modelo em relação aos objetivos por simulação ou aferição. / This research work introduces an empirical method for the prediction of transient overloads in computer systems by means of dynamical modeling. The technique, based on linear time-invariant approximations, aims at identifying the computer systems capacity in absorbing variations on the workload. Experimentally, this capacity identification can be carried out from performance evaluation methods, whose prevalent approach is the estimation of the static capacity under stationary operational regime, by observing the performance under constant demand. Nevertheless, this kind of evaluation does not take into account the systems transient regime, i.e. the period during of the restablishment to the stationary regime after the perturbation, and within which, the effort required from the systems may be diverse and potentially superior to that measured under the stationary condition. This work proposes the formulation of a methodology for performance evaluation in transient regime of computer systems submitted to variable workloads, aimed at providing information for dimensioning or resources and design of admission control policies capable of avoiding overloads due to transitory effects. The methodology relies on the parametrization of a dynamical model obtained from experimental procedures, considering abrupt, long-lasting distrubances, and the results are evaluated through comparison of the model prediction with the simulated system.

Although Code of Maryland policy mandates multidisciplinary, integrated teams for residential service provider organizations (RPOs) for an intellectual/developmental disabilities (IDD) population, alignment criteria to identify and evaluate the functional characteristics of such teams do not exist. This ambiguity has resulted in potential conflict in the goals of service delivery, as well as misaligned quality assessment and policy development criteria. The intent of this general qualitative study was to use complex adaptive systems theory and Vitkiene's work on corporate ethos to determine whether the services provided by a single RPO were consistent and aligned with the regulatory mandate set by the state. Data were acquired from the Maryland Office of Health Care Quality, for the years 2010-2015 that consisted of compliance inspections, reports, citations, as well as responses and corrective actions made by the IDD-RPO. Data were deductively coded according to Vitkiene's 3 ethos principles: economy (profit), procedure (task completion), and beneficence (customer service) and then subjected to a content analysis procedure. The study affirmed the lack of alignment criteria within the RPO by demonstrating ambiguity in how services were measured. Findings identified beneficence as most likely to be associated with a multidisciplinary team. Positive social change implications stem from recommendations to repurpose public health compliance data to address issues of misalignment in institutional service delivery; these findings may also be used by policy makers to focus on ethos as a means to focus on realigning policy objectives, the regulatory environment, and the work done at the RPO level to encourage better quality of life for individuals diagnosed with IDD.

Komplexitetsteori ger ett nytt synsätt på hälso- och sjukvårdens organisation, vilken beskrivs som ett komplext adaptivt system, vars ingående delar står i en inbördes relation till varandra och interagerar i dynamiska, icke linjära mönster. Detta synsätt kontrasterar mot det mer traditionella som ser sjukvården som en hierarkisk och linjär organisationsstruktur. Denna litteraturstudie har som syfte att beskriva hur omvårdnad kan påverkas av en organisationsstuktur präglad av teorin om komplexa adaptiva system. Elva artiklar granskades och analyserades, varvid fyra teman framträdde: ledarskap och medinflytande, samverkan, intellektuell mångfald och informationsflöde. Resultatet visar att omvårdnadsproblem uppmärksammades och åtgärdades snabbare på enheter som organiserats med fokus på medarbetarnas delaktighet och där ledarskapet främjat en hög grad av samverkan inom och mellan vårdens olika professioner samt verkat för ett klimat där alla medarbetare fritt kunde framföra och delge sina åsikter. Komplexitetsteoretiska resonemang ger således nya insikter om hur hälso- och sjukvården kan organiseras för att optimera patienternas välbefinnande och hälsa. / Complexity theory provides a new view on the organization of healthcare, which is described as a complex adaptive system. The integrated parts of this system are interconnected in dynamic, non linear patterns. This contrasts to the traditional way of viewing an organization as hierarchal and linear. The aim of this literature study was to describe how an organizational structure based on complex adaptive systems theory can impact nursing. Eleven articles were examined, revealing four themes: leadership and participation, collaboration, cognitive diversity and information flow. The result showed improved nursing quality and patient outcomes in units organized with a focus on staff participation, a leadership promoting interdisciplinary collaboration and a climate where all employees were free to express and share their opinions. Complexity theory provides new insights how the organization of health care can optimize patients' health and wellbeing.

Adaptyviose sistemose prisitaikymas prie besimokančiojo yra paremtas duomenų apie besimokantįjį rinkimu, analizavimu ir mokymosi aplinkos pritaikymu besimokančiojo poreikiams. Tam būtina parinkti tokius „sekimo“ duomenis, pagal kuriuos būtų galima daryti išvadas sistemos lygmenyje. Šie duomenys turi būti suprantami sistemai, nuolat atnaujinami, lengvai surenkami. Jie gali būti įvairūs, pradedant nuorodų paspaudimo laiku, baigiant akies žvilgsnio nukreipimo vieta. Pagal tai sistema gali transformuoti duomenis ir – priklausomai nuo savo paskirties – duoti patarimus ar tam tikromis priemonėmis pavaizduoti naudingą informaciją, tuo pačiu atsižvelgdama į rezultatus. Tačiau daugelis šių sistemų yra tik prototipo stadijoje arba naudojamos nesudėtingiems procesams vykdyti. Mums žinomos adaptyvios sistemos yra skirtos vieno dalyko probleminei sričiai. Šiame darbe tirsime besimokančiojo modelio perteikimo galimybę virtualioje mokymo(si) aplinkoje (VMA), kai besimokantysis dalyvauja viename arba keliuose nuotoliniuose kursuose. / In adaptive systems adaptation to learner is defined by collection of data about learner, collected data analysis and learning environment adaptation to learners needs. Looking forward to this goal it is necessary to select such logging data, which can be used to make conclusions in a system level. Such data should be acceptable to system, interactive and easy to collect. Data used can be various, starting from click time of the link ending with eye look direction angle. Such system can provide data transformations and depending on purpose, give suggestions. Using necessary tools depict useful information, reacting to results. Most of currently build systems are only in prototype stage or are used for unsophisticated process. Most of them are one subject systems. In this work we address a possibility of student model’s depiction in a VLE, when student participate in one or more than one distance course.

[Truncated abstract] Fuzzy inference systems (FIS) are information processing systems using fuzzy logic mechanism to represent the human reasoning process and to make decisions based on uncertain, imprecise environments in our daily lives. Since the introduction of fuzzy set theory, fuzzy inference systems have been widely used mainly for system modeling, industrial plant control for a variety of practical applications, and also other decisionmaking purposes; advanced data analysis in medical research, risk management in business, stock market prediction in finance, data analysis in bioinformatics, and so on. Many approaches have been proposed to address the issue of automatic generation of membership functions and rules with the corresponding subsequent adjustment of them towards more satisfactory system performance. Because one of the most important factors for building high quality of FIS is the generation of the knowledge base of it, which consists of membership functions, fuzzy rules, fuzzy logic operators and other components for fuzzy calculations. The design of FIS comes from either the experience of human experts in the corresponding field of research or input and output data observations collected from operations of systems. Therefore, it is crucial to generate high quality FIS from a highly reliable design scheme to model the desired system process best. Furthermore, due to a lack of a learning property of fuzzy systems themselves most of the suggested schemes incorporate hybridization techniques towards better performance within a fuzzy system framework. ... This systematic enhancement is required to update the FIS in order to produce flexible and robust fuzzy systems for unexpected unknown inputs from real-world environments. This thesis proposes a general framework of Adaptive T-S (Takagi-Sugeno) type Rough-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ARFIS) for a variety of practical applications in order to resolve the problems mentioned above in the context of a Rough-Fuzzy hybridization scheme. Rough set theory is employed to effectively reduce the number of attributes that pertain to input variables and obtain a minimal set of decision rules based on input and output data sets. The generated rules are examined by checking their validity to use them as T-S type fuzzy rules. Using its excellent advantages in modeling non-linear systems, the T-S type fuzzy model is chosen to perform the fuzzy inference process. A T-S type fuzzy inference system is constructed by an automatic generation of membership functions and rules by the Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) clustering algorithm and the rough set approach, respectively. The generated T-S type rough-fuzzy inference system is then adjusted by the least-squares method and a conjugate gradient descent algorithm towards better performance within a fuzzy system framework. To show the viability of the proposed framework of ARFIS, the performance of ARFIS is compared with other existing approaches in a variety of practical applications; pattern classification, face recognition, and mobile robot navigation. The results are very satisfactory and competitive, and suggest the ARFIS is a suitable new framework for fuzzy inference systems by showing a better system performance with less number of attributes and rules in each application.

Submitted by Aelson Maciera (aelsoncm@terra.com.br) on 2017-04-17T18:58:23Z No. of bitstreams: 1 DissMAS.pdf: 4063634 bytes, checksum: deabb30ec4d63266b4b9dc58fe79287a (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Ronildo Prado (ronisp@ufscar.br) on 2017-04-20T12:22:31Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 DissMAS.pdf: 4063634 bytes, checksum: deabb30ec4d63266b4b9dc58fe79287a (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Ronildo Prado (ronisp@ufscar.br) on 2017-04-20T12:22:39Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 DissMAS.pdf: 4063634 bytes, checksum: deabb30ec4d63266b4b9dc58fe79287a (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-04-20T12:26:34Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 DissMAS.pdf: 4063634 bytes, checksum: deabb30ec4d63266b4b9dc58fe79287a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-08-19 / Não recebi financiamento / Adaptive systems are able to adapt themselves according to changes in its execution environment or the user's needs. Monitors are essential for the development of such systems because they are responsible for collecting and pre-processing the context data. By a search in systems found in repositories and literature, it was observed that monitors are sometimes designed and implemented in an inappropriate way, exhibiting the following characteristics: i) they are Obscure in the source code; ii) they have a unique monitoring rate and iii) they are forced to have a pre-determined execution order. These characteristics lead to difficulties in maintenance, evolution and often problems related to performance. Design decisions that lead to these difficulties can be characterized as architectural smells. The documentation of smells helps developers identifying refactoring opportunities of a system and also highlights practices that should be analyzed during the design and development of new systems. Therefore, this master thesis proses two architectural smells for adaptive systems: the Obscure Monitor and Oppressed Monitors. The first occurs when the monitors are not evident in the system and the second occurs when the monitors are subject to the same monitoring rate and have a strict execution order. In order to check the influence of the presence of theses smells five maintenance activities were applied in two versions of a system called PhoneAdapter, the original version with the presence of the smells and the refactored one in which the smells were removed. The results indicate that the maintenance and evolution of the refactored system are facilitated in most activities. / Sistemas Adaptativos são capazes de se adaptarem às mudanças de seu ambiente de execução ou das necessidades do usuário. Monitores são essenciais para o desenvolvimento desse tipo de sistema, pois, são responsáveis por coletar e preprocessar dados do contexto. Em um levantamento de sistemas realizado em repositórios e na literatura especializada, notou-se que monitores são por vezes projetados e implementados de uma forma inadequada, exibindo as seguintes características: i) ficam obscuros no código-fonte; ii) possuem uma taxa de monitoramento única e iii) são forçados a ter uma ordem de execução pré-determinada. Isso leva a dificuldades na manutenção, evolução e muitas vezes problemas relacionados a desempenho. Decisões de projetos que levam a essas dificuldades podem ser caracterizadas como smells arquiteturais. A documentação de smells auxilia desenvolvedores a identificar oportunidades de refatorações do sistema, bem como evidenciar práticas que devem ser avaliadas durante o projeto e desenvolvimento de novos sistemas. Portanto, nesta dissertação de mestrado são propostos dois smells arquiteturais: o Obscure Monitor e o Oppressed Monitors. O primeiro ocorre quando os monitores não estão evidentes no sistema e o segundo ocorre quando os monitores estão sujeitos a uma mesma taxa de monitoramento e também possuem uma ordem de execução rígida. Como avaliação preliminar foi realizado um estudo exploratório em um sistema adaptativo chamado PhoneAdapter. Para verificar a influência da presença desses smells foram realizadas cinco atividades de manutenção em duas versões desse sistema, a original com os smells e uma refatorada na qual os smells foram removidos. Os resultados obtidos indicam que a manutenção e evolução de tais sistemas são facilitadas na maioria dessas atividades.