Global warming is an issue that affects the entire world. The aviation industry accounts for around three percent of global emissions, and actions are needed to help steer the industry towards a sustainable transition with new technologies and alternative aviation fuels to reduce emissions. There are options today for passengers to compensate flight emissions through carbon offsetting. The purpose of this report is to investigate how the aviation and carbon offset industries are likely to develop in the future in order to provide knowledge that an air travel comparison site can use to adapt its carbon offset alternative to new market conditions. The empirical data in this study consist of interviews with stakeholders in the aviation and carbon offset industries as well as a politician. Industrial reports and a literature review were used in combination with the empirical data and analyzed with theories such as industrial dynamics, network innovation and scenario analysis to result in a possible future scenario of the industries. Further, conclusions with necessary actions in order to develop a more sustainable aviation industry and how carbon offsetting can be renewed due to a sustainable aviation transition. Additionally, managerial implications for an air travel comparison site followed with suggestions on how they can contribute to this transition. The conclusions from this study are to develop existing networks and establish new ones to share knowledge from many different stakeholders in the industry and use their capabilities to propose regulatory changes as well as prepare the industry for sustainable solutions in the future. Networks should also use their collective power to lobby for changes that will drive the transition towards a more sustainable aviation industry forward. The broad expertise that these networks possess can be used to provide customers with knowledge to make the option to carbon offset a flight more attractive. It is important that knowledge and marketing of carbon offsetting is transparent to inform customers of its effects on the climate. Biofuels and electrified aircrafts are sustainable solutions more suitable for the future due to the high price of biofuels and electrified aircrafts not ready to replace regular jet-aircrafts. Thus, carbon offsetting is the best option to reduce net emissions from a flight today. The short-term recommendations are for an air travel comparison site to be involved in the transition towards more sustainable aviation fuel by offering customers the option to purchase biofuel together with or as an alternative to carbon offset when booking a flight. An air travel comparison should also support organizations and firms working with sustainable solutions such as introduction of electrified aircrafts, through partnerships or investments to help steer the industry in a sustainable direction. The long-term recommendation for an air travel comparison site is to continuously stay updated with the latest research and knowledge expertise within the industry to adapt its carbon offset alternative to new conditions in the future. This study is to be considered as an informational foundation for an air travel comparison site to adapt its carbon offset alternative to a dynamic aviation industry. However, the study does not include empirical data from all stakeholders within the aviation industry hence the information used in this study is limited. / Global uppvärmning är ett aktuellt problem som påverkar hela världen. Flygindustrin står för runt tre procent av de globala utsläppen och åtgärder behövs för att styra industrin mot en hållbar utveckling med ny teknologi och alternativa flygbränsle för att minska utsläppen. Idag finns det möjlighet för passagerare att kompensera sina flygutsläpp genom klimatkompensation. Syftet med denna studie är att undersöka hur flyg- samt klimatkompensationsindustrin troligtvis kommer att utvecklas i framtiden och hur företag inom flygindustrin kan tillämpa den kunskapen för att påverka utvecklingen mot en mer hållbar flygindustri. Med hjälp av kunskapen ska klimatkompensationsalternativ kunna anpassas utefter dem nya förutsättningarna i framtiden. Den empiriska data för denna studie består av intervjuer med intressenter från flyg- och klimatkompensationsbranscherna samt en politiker. Industrirapporter och en litteraturrecension har använts i kombination med empiriska data tillsammans med teorier såsom industriell dynamik, nätverksinnovation och scenario analys som resulterat i ett troligt framtidsscenario för industrierna. Vidare följer en slutsats samt ledningsliga implikationer och rekommendationer för en flygprisjämförelsesajt. Slutsatserna från denna studie är att utveckla redan befintliga samt etablera nya nätverk för att dela kunskap från många olika intressenter inom flygindustrin och använda sig av deras förmågor för att föreslå ändringar i lagstiftningen samt förbereda flygindustrin för hållbara lösningar i framtiden. Nätverk bör också använda deras samlade makt till att lobba för beslut som driver utvecklingen av en mer hållbar flygindustri framåt. Den breda expertisen som dessa nätverk besitter kan användas för att informera och förse kunder med kunskap om fördelarna med klimatkompensation och öka intresset för att klimatkompensera en flygresa. Marknadsföring och information om klimatkompensation behöver vara transparent för att kunder ska förstå effekterna det har på klimatet. Biobränslen och elektrifierade flyg är hållbara lösningar som är mer troliga för framtiden då priset på biobränslen är väldigt högt idag och elektrifierade flyg är långt ifrån redo att ersätta dagens jet-flyg. Därmed är klimatkompensation det bästa alternativet för att reducera nettoutsläpp idag. Kortsiktiga rekommendationer för en prisjämförelsesite är att vara involverande i övergången till mer hållbara bränslen genom att erbjuda kunder ett alternativ till att köpa biobränsle i kombination med att klimatkompensera. För att styra industrin i en mer hållbar riktning bör en flygprisjämförelsesite ge stöd i form av investeringar och samarbeten med organisationer och företag som arbetar med hållbara framtidslösningar som exempelvis utveckling av elektriska flygplan. Långsiktiga lösningar är att kontinuerligt hålla sig uppdaterade med den senaste forskningen och kunskapsexpertisen inom industrin för att anpassa sitt klimatkompensationsalternativ i framtiden. Denna studie ska betraktas som en informell grund för företag inom flygindustrin att påverka en övergång till en mer hållbar flygindustri samt utveckla sitt klimatkompensationsalternativ i framtiden. Studien innehåller ej empiriska data från alla intressenter inom flygbranschen och skall därför ses som begränsad.

This dissertation contains three essays examining the transportation sector in the United States using methods from empirical industrial organization. Chapter 1 investigates the entry and characteristics of public direct current fast charging (DCFC) stations for the fueling of electric vehicles (EVs). The entry model endogenizes the quality of DCFC sites by having participating charging networks take into account market characteristics, competition effects, and the policy environment when making entry and quality investment decisions. The entry model is augmented with data on station utilization that is constructed from web-scraped records of station availability collected over 10-minute intervals throughout the year 2023. In examining the policy environment, Chapter 1 focuses on the Low-Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) credit program in California, a program that provides tradable credits to DCFC charging stations, with credit allocations increasing, but marginally diminishing, in nameplate power ratings. I simulate counterfactual entry under various expenditure equivalent alternative subsidy schemes. I find that an alternative credit schedule proportional to nameplate power results in a simulated 5.0 percent increase in output from high-power sites, but the resultant aggregate output is left largely unchanged given the offsetting effect of having fewer low-power DCFC sites enter. Chapter 1 also examines the trade-offs between lump-sum and per-unit subsidies, finding that per-unit subsidies result in higher per-site utilization but lower site entry. A hybrid design combining lump-sum and per-unit subsidies is proposed as a viable alternative. Chapter 2 examines the response of EV drivers to time-of-use (TOU) pricing at public DCFC stations. In particular, demand is compared between two networks offering public charging services of comparable of comparable quality that differ, however, in their pricing strategies. Namely, one firm offers pricing that does not vary by the time of day, while the other offers TOU pricing that exhibits on-peak increases and off-peak discounts. Using a Poisson arrival model, I estimate the price elasticity of demand to be approximately unit elastic around 4pm, the time-of-day at which pricing shifts from off-peak to on-peak pricing for one of the two focal firms. In contrast to residential electricity users who encounter TOU pricing, EV drivers are found to be more price-sensitive, in part reflecting drivers' outside option of charging at home at lower tariffs. Chapter 3 evaluates how demand for passenger air travel evolved during the COVID-19 pandemic. Air travelers can be characterized by differing willingness to pay for the same ticket. While domestic air fare and passenger counts collapsed with the arrival of the COVID-19 pandemic to the United States in March 2020, I find that the resulting composition of air travelers post-pandemic was more price-inelastic, relative to pre-pandemic levels. Results are obtained using a discrete choice model that incorporates unobservable product characteristics and two latent passenger types.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the correlation of U.S. domestic air travelers and patterns of air travel purchase within the U.S. air travel industry. Influences on the patterns of air travel purchase involved 1) demographic characteristics of travelers 2) benefits to the customer 3) customer attitude toward service providers' (defined as airlines, web-based travel agents, and traditional travel agents and 4) information sources used to select and book a flight for business and leisure trips.

This thesis addresses two planning problems motivated by the operations of PSOD air transportation: scheduled maintenance planning, and base location and fleet allocation. In the first part of the thesis, we study tactical planning for scheduled maintenance which determines the daily maintenance capacities for two operating conditions: a growth phase and the steady state. We model tactical maintenance capacity planning during the growth phase as an integer program and develop an optimization-based local search to solve the problem. Tactical planning of steady state maintenance capacity concerns a special case for which we determine the optimal and the long run capacities with a pseudo-polynomial time algorithm. In the second part of the thesis, we address operational planning for scheduled maintenance which is concerned with assigning itineraries to jets and determining the specific jets to be scheduled for maintenance on a daily basis given a certain maintenance capacity. We present a solution methodology that employs a look-ahead approach to consider the impact of our current decisions on the future and decomposes the problem exploiting the differences between jets with respect to the proximity to their next maintenance. We further develop an integrated framework in order to capture the interaction between operational level maintenance decisions and flight scheduling. In the third and final part of the thesis, we present the tactical level base location and fleet allocation problem. As PSOD air transportation experiences changes in travel demand and fleet size, decisions regarding where to open new bases and how to allocate the number of jets among the bases are made. We first present a solution approach in which high level information about flight scheduling is used in a traditional facility location problem. We next develop a model that works directly with transportation requests and integrates a simplified version of flight scheduling with the base location and fleet allocation decisions in order to capture more detail.

Global mobility, wireless technology and networked society are transforming the airport territory. These changes (hard factors) have been analysed in airport planning and transportation studies (Koll-Schretzenmayr 2003; Banister 2003; Schaafsma 2003; Knippenberger &Wall 2010; Salewski & Michaelli 2011; Convenz & Thierstein ed. 2014 et al) and architecture and design (Edwards 1998; Blow 2005; Cuadra 2002; Uffelen 2012; Gensler 2013 et al). But design strategies focusing on the passenger experience (soft factors) have not yet been thoroughly assimilated by architecture and design. On the theoretical level this dissertation spans the analysis of current methodologies in social studies (e.g. Castells 1996; Gottdiener 2000; Cresswell 2006; Urry, 2007; Elliott & Urry 2010; Adey 2010 et al) and their relation to architectural and urban studies concepts for the airport. The latter includes the “Airport as City” (Güller & Güller 2000), “Aviopolis – A Book about Airports” (Fuller & Harley 2005) and “Aerotropolis” (Kassarda 2010). This dissertation also explores IT and aviation industry interests at the interface between technology and air travellers. In this light aviation industry research and solutions (Amadeus 2011, SITA 2013) are important to consider, as well the philosophy behind who travels and for what purpose (Sloterdijk 1998; Koolhaas 1998; Gottdiener 2000; Urry 2007; Birtchnell & Caletrio 2014 et al). Here, the author’s previous field research at Frankfurt International Airport is relevant. We live more mobile lifestyles, we work in hybrid spaces (Suoza 2006; Duffy 2010 et al), and we consequently need to share information and collaborate differently. Using constant travellers as a case study, the impact of physical and informational mobility on perceptions of and behavioural patterns in the airport can lead to a deeper understanding of mobile work and the air travel experience. New design strategies can be developed from research about constant travellers, and the results may improve their work and air travel experience. The author’s combination of design approaches from architecture and social science (sociology and psychology) methodologies can better address the real needs of constant travellers in hybrid workspaces. It is hoped that this dissertation will inspire airport architects and designers, interaction designers and the aviation industry to pay more attention to users’ needs in their design processes.

Holiday air travel behaviors are nowadays a significant issue in relation to climate change and sustainable tourism. Indeed, transportation, and especially air transportation, have a significant role in climate change. Hence, it is important that the tourism industry includes the transportation sector when developing solutions for sustainable tourism. As students are the future main target group of this industry, it is important to understand the reasons behind their choices. Until now, travel behaviors have been explained using single and specific theories, which did not include many factors explaining holiday air travel decisions. In this study, this concern is addressed by combining two theories in relation to behavior formation - the theory of planned behavior and the value-belief-norm theory - in order to understand all motivations and barriers behind students’ holiday air travel behaviors. The analysis of the findings shows that many internal and external factors affect students decisions in regards to flying during holidays, including values, beliefs, social and personal norms, as well as accessibility, country of origin, price, time, distance, and social influence. However, the analysis of the results also demonstrates two gaps between attitudes and behaviors within the student community, which link to the cognitive dissonance theory: an awareness-attitude behavior gap and a contextual gap. The paper argues that while the theory of planned behavior and the value-belief-norm theory can be used simultaneously in order to analyze decisions regarding holiday air transportation, they are not sufficient as these two gaps emerged. The study concludes suggesting destination developers and national governments to take into account the present factors behind students’ decisions in order to develop sustainable destinations.

Organizations specifically the airlines industry are increasingly facing the challenges of operational efficiency measurement. During the last years enormous attention has been given to the assessment and improvement of the performance of productive systems. However, literatures show that there are limitations of the existing models to measure efficiency uniformly and exhaustively across the airlines. The problems are due to lack of the technical efficiency measuring model which unifies and integrates different measuring models into a single model.Therefore, this thesis investigates assessment of the operational performance of world major airlines by employing integrated comparative models to address the above problems. In this study, technical efficiency is addressed among many performance issues by using three types of modes of performance measurement: a non parametric one, represented by Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and; a parametric one, represented by Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) and the Balance Scorecard (BSC) which is a strategic management tools. Unlike most of the previous studies, this study integrates the BSC concepts into DEA and SFA model. To evaluate technical efficiency of major international airlines, the study use panel of unbalanced data for the year 2007-2014 to make integrated comparative analysis. The research project incorporates seven leading variables and four lagging variables taken from BSC concept to implement into the DEA and SFA. All the three models of performance measurements have their own strength and limitation if they are used alone. But if the three models are integrated and combined together, they would yield better comparative and quality of efficiency assessment. Therefore, the study primarily developed a model beginning from the theoretical framework assumption into building of a unified comparative model of integrated comparative operational efficiency assessment of airlines. The research design and methodology uses secondary data collection i.e. annual reports and business reports of airlines which are collected from the airlines own website. The huge amount of financial and operational data cannot be collected by using primary data collection method as it would make it practically impossible and expensive. So by employing secondary data collection method saves time, money and a panel data can be accessed and generated easily. Hence, from 100 world major airlines population which are ranked by revenue, simple random sampling is used to select 80 samples airlines for this study. First, the BSC identifies the input and output variables. Next, the DEA model ranks the efficiency measurement, identifies the slack variables and benchmarks the airlines. Third, the SFA model identifies technical efficiency, the random error and technical inefficiency. Finally, the technical efficiency estimates obtained from the two techniques are analyzed comparatively. The research makes further analysis of particular case of the Ethiopian Airlines in relation to the most efficient and inefficient airlines and in comparison of the regional analysis. After extensive tests have been conducted, ‘Balanced Frontier Envelopment’ model is developed. According to this model, it is a paramount to measure efficiency with combining the strength of three models together and gives better results than the previous one or two combined models. The developed and integrated strategic model enhances measuring of the operating technical efficiency of airlines. This model benefit the airlines industry in many ways such as minimizing the cost and maximizing profit through managing technical efficiency which lead into the success of the airlines. From the model perspective, therefore, result of DEA model is much higher than the result of SFA model. DEA model is easier to manipulate than the SFA model because the former does not need the functional form while the later requires a functional form. Furthermore, according to the efficiency finding of the study, first, the European regional airlines are relatively more efficient than the rest of regions in the world. Second, the North America regional airlines are the second more efficient regional airlines in the world. Third, the Ethiopian airlines are the most efficient in Africa when we compare among Egyptair, Kenyan Airways and South African Airways. Fourth, high revenue does not necessarily leads to the technical efficiency of the firm. / Business Management / D.B.L. (Business Leadership)

Abstracts in English, Afrikaans and Northern Sotho / More time series forecasting methods were researched and made available in recent years. This is mainly due to the emergence of machine learning methods which also found applicability in time series forecasting. The emergence of a variety of methods and their variants presents a challenge when choosing appropriate forecasting methods. This study explored the performance of four advanced forecasting methods: autoregressive integrated moving averages (ARIMA); artificial neural networks (ANN); support vector machines (SVM) and regression models with ARIMA errors. To improve their performance, bagging was also applied. The performance of the different methods was illustrated using South African air passenger data collected for planning purposes by the Airports Company South Africa (ACSA). The dissertation discussed the different forecasting methods at length. Characteristics such as strengths and weaknesses and the applicability of the methods were explored. Some of the most popular forecast accuracy measures were discussed in order to understand how they could be used in the performance evaluation of the methods. It was found that the regression model with ARIMA errors outperformed all the other methods, followed by the ARIMA model. These findings are in line with the general findings in the literature. The ANN method is prone to overfitting and this was evident from the results of the training and the test data sets. The bagged models showed mixed results with marginal improvement on some of the methods for some performance measures. It could be concluded that the traditional statistical forecasting methods (ARIMA and the regression model with ARIMA errors) performed better than the machine learning methods (ANN and SVM) on this data set, based on the measures of accuracy used. This calls for more research regarding the applicability of the machine learning methods to time series forecasting which will assist in understanding and improving their performance against the traditional statistical methods / Die afgelope tyd is verskeie tydreeksvooruitskattingsmetodes ondersoek as gevolg van die ontwikkeling van masjienleermetodes met toepassings in die vooruitskatting van tydreekse. Die nuwe metodes en hulle variante laat ʼn groot keuse tussen vooruitskattingsmetodes. Hierdie studie ondersoek die werkverrigting van vier gevorderde vooruitskattingsmetodes: outoregressiewe, geïntegreerde bewegende gemiddeldes (ARIMA), kunsmatige neurale netwerke (ANN), steunvektormasjiene (SVM) en regressiemodelle met ARIMA-foute. Skoenlussaamvoeging is gebruik om die prestasie van die metodes te verbeter. Die prestasie van die vier metodes is vergelyk deur hulle toe te pas op Suid-Afrikaanse lugpassasiersdata wat deur die Suid-Afrikaanse Lughawensmaatskappy (ACSA) vir beplanning ingesamel is. Hierdie verhandeling beskryf die verskillende vooruitskattingsmetodes omvattend. Sowel die positiewe as die negatiewe eienskappe en die toepasbaarheid van die metodes is uitgelig. Bekende prestasiemaatstawwe is ondersoek om die prestasie van die metodes te evalueer. Die regressiemodel met ARIMA-foute en die ARIMA-model het die beste van die vier metodes gevaar. Hierdie bevinding strook met dié in die literatuur. Dat die ANN-metode na oormatige passing neig, is deur die resultate van die opleidings- en toetsdatastelle bevestig. Die skoenlussamevoegingsmodelle het gemengde resultate opgelewer en in sommige prestasiemaatstawwe vir party metodes marginaal verbeter. Op grond van die waardes van die prestasiemaatstawwe wat in hierdie studie gebruik is, kan die gevolgtrekking gemaak word dat die tradisionele statistiese vooruitskattingsmetodes (ARIMA en regressie met ARIMA-foute) op die gekose datastel beter as die masjienleermetodes (ANN en SVM) presteer het. Dit dui op die behoefte aan verdere navorsing oor die toepaslikheid van tydreeksvooruitskatting met masjienleermetodes om hul prestasie vergeleke met dié van die tradisionele metodes te verbeter. / Go nyakišišitšwe ka ga mekgwa ye mentši ya go akanya ka ga molokoloko wa dinako le go dirwa gore e hwetšagale mo mengwageng ye e sa tšwago go feta. Se k e k a le b a k a la g o t šwelela ga mekgwa ya go ithuta ya go diriša metšhene yeo le yona e ilego ya dirišwa ka kakanyong ya molokolokong wa dinako. Go t šwelela ga mehutahuta ya mekgwa le go fapafapana ga yona go tšweletša tlhohlo ge go kgethwa mekgwa ya maleba ya go akanya. Dinyakišišo tše di lekodišišitše go šoma ga mekgwa ye mene ya go akanya yeo e gatetšego pele e lego: ditekanyotshepelo tšeo di kopantšwego tša poelomorago ya maitirišo (ARIMA); dinetweke tša maitirelo tša nyurale (ANN); metšhene ya bekthara ya thekgo (SVM); le mekgwa ya poelomorago yeo e nago le diphošo tša ARIMA. Go kaonafatša go šoma ga yona, nepagalo ya go ithuta ka metšhene le yona e dirišitšwe. Go šoma ga mekgwa ye e fepafapanego go laeditšwe ka go šomiša tshedimošo ya banamedi ba difofane ba Afrika Borwa yeo e kgobokeditšwego mabakeng a dipeakanyo ke Khamphani ya Maemafofane ya Afrika Borwa (ACSA). Sengwalwanyaki šišo se ahlaahlile mekgwa ya kakanyo ye e fapafapanego ka bophara. Dipharologanyi tša go swana le maatla le bofokodi le go dirišega ga mekgwa di ile tša šomišwa. Magato a mangwe ao a tumilego kudu a kakanyo ye e nepagetšego a ile a ahlaahlwa ka nepo ya go kwešiša ka fao a ka šomišwago ka gona ka tshekatshekong ya go šoma ga mekgwa ye. Go hweditšwe gore mokgwa wa poelomorago wa go ba le diphošo tša ARIMA o phadile mekgwa ye mengwe ka moka, gwa latela mokgwa wa ARIMA. Dikutollo tše di sepelelana le dikutollo ka kakaretšo ka dingwaleng. Mo k gwa wa ANN o ka fela o fetišiša gomme se se bonagetše go dipoelo tša tlhahlo le dihlo pha t ša teko ya tshedimošo. Mekgwa ya nepagalo ya go ithuta ka metšhene e bontšhitše dipoelo tšeo di hlakantšwego tšeo di nago le kaonafalo ye kgolo go ye mengwe mekgwa ya go ela go phethagatšwa ga mešomo. Go ka phethwa ka gore mekgwa ya setlwaedi ya go akanya dipalopalo (ARIMA le mokgwa wa poelomorago wa go ba le diphošo tša ARIMA) e šomile bokaone go phala mekgwa ya go ithuta ka metšhene (ANN le SVM) ka mo go sehlopha se sa tshedimošo, go eya ka magato a nepagalo ya magato ao a šomišitšwego. Se se nyaka gore go dirwe dinyakišišo tše dingwe mabapi le go dirišega ga mekgwa ya go ithuta ka metšhene mabapi le go akanya molokoloko wa dinako, e lego seo se tlago thuša go kwešiša le go kaonafatša go šoma ga yona kgahlanong le mekgwa ya setlwaedi ya dipalopalo. / Decision Sciences / M. Sc. (Operations Research)