To manage an uncertain future relevant societal groups, such as government and corporate sectors, utilise economic forecasts to help plan future strategies. Many vital decisions are based on economic forecasts. Economists have traditionally been the professionals employed as economic forecasting experts. The dominant paradigm for present day forecasting is the "rational expectations theory", which assumes that a forecaster is capable of making optimal use all of the available information. The field of psychology offers a different, yet complementary, approach to the topic of economic forecasting. The aim of the current study was to research mental processes and behaviours of individuals participating in a forecasting task. The role of the following psychological variables within economic prediction behaviour was assessed: (1) task complexity, (2) decision making style, (3) the anchoring and adjustment heuristic, (4) the framing effect, and (5) personal feelings about the task content. All of these variables were hypothesised to have a direct influence on prediction behaviour. In addition, task complexity and decision making style were assumed to moderate the influence of the other psychological variables. A conceptual framework was designed to depict the assumed relationships. (For complete abstract open document)

Made available in DSpace on 2014-12-17T13:53:33Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 AnnaCCG_DISSERT.pdf: 494354 bytes, checksum: cc3884ea40667a786d041d6af02a9d7f (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-02-16 / The Behavioral Finance develop as it is perceived anomalies in these markets efficient. This fields of study can be grouped into three major groups: heuristic bias, tying the shape and inefficient markets. The present study focuses on issues concerning the heuristics of representativeness and anchoring. This study aimed to identify the then under-reaction and over-reaction, as well as the existence of symmetry in the active first and second line of the Brazilian stock market. For this, it will be use the Fuzzy Logic and the indicators that classify groups studied from the Discriminant Analysis. The highest present, indicator in the period studied, was the Liabilities / Equity, demonstrating the importance of the moment to discriminate the assets to be considered "winners" and "losers." Note that in the MLCX biases over-reaction is concentrated in the period of financial crisis, and in the remaining periods of statistically significant biases, are obtained by sub-reactions. The latter would be in times of moderate levels of uncertainty. In the Small Caps the behavioral responses in 2005 and 2007 occur in reverse to those observed in the Mid-Large Cap. Now in times of crisis would have a marked conservatism while near the end of trading on the Bovespa speaker, accompanied by an increase of negotiations, there is an overreaction by investors. The other heuristics in SMLL occurred at the end of the period studied, this being a under-reaction and the other a over-reaction and the second occurring in a period of financial-economic more positive than the first. As regards the under / over-reactivity in both types, there is detected a predominance of either, which probably be different in the context in MLCX without crisis. For the period in which such phenomena occur in a statistically significant to note that, in most cases, such phenomena occur during the periods for MLCX while in SMLL not only biases are less present as there is no concentration of these at any time . Given the above, it is believed that while detecting the presence of bias behavior at certain times, these do not tend to appear to a specific type or heuristics and while there were some indications of a seasonal pattern in Mid- Large Caps, the same behavior does not seem to be repeated in Small Caps. The tests would then suggest that momentary failures in the Efficient Market Hypothesis when tested in semistrong form as stated by Behavioral Finance. This result confirms the theory by stating that not only rationality, but also human irrationality, is limited because it would act rationally in many circumstances / As Finan?as Comportamentais desenvolvem-se ? medida em que s?o percebidas anomalias nos ditos mercados eficientes. Seus campos de estudos podem ser reunidos em tr?s grandes grupos: vi?s heur?stico, subordina??o a forma e mercados ineficientes. O presente estudo foca-se em quest?es relativas ?s heur?sticas da representatividade e do ancoramento. O presente trabalho objetivou ent?o identificar a sub-rea??o e sobre-rea??o, assim como a exist?ncia de simetria nos ativos de primeira e segunda linha do mercado acion?rio brasileiro. Para tal foi utilizada a L?gica Fuzzy e os indicadores que classificam os grupos, estudados a partir da An?lise Discriminante. O ?ndice mais presente, nos per?odos estudados, foi o de Exig?vel/Patrim?nio L?quido, demonstrando a import?ncia deste no momento de discriminar os ativos a serem considerados vencedores e perdedores . Nota-se na MLCX que os vieses de sobre-rea??o se concentram no per?odo da crise financeira, sendo que nos demais per?odos, de vieses significantes estatisticamente, s?o obtidas sub-rea??es. Estas ?ltimas se dariam em momentos de n?veis moderados de incertezas. Nas Small Caps as rea??es comportamentais em 2005 e 2007 ocorrem de forma inversa ?s observadas nas Mid-Large Caps. Agora em momentos de crise ter-se-ia um marcado conservadorismo enquanto que nas proximidades do fim do preg?o viva-voz da Bovespa, acompanhado do aumento das negocia??es realizadas, nota-se uma rea??o excessiva por parte dos investidores. As demais heur?sticas nas SMLL ocorreram no final do per?odo em estudo, sendo esta uma de sub e outra de sobre-rea??o e a segunda ocorrendo em um per?odo financeiro-econ?mico mais positivo que a primeira. No que diz respeito a sub/sobre-rea??o em ambos tipos, n?o se detecta a predomin?ncia de nenhum destes, fato que provavelmente seria diferente nas MLCX em um contexto sem crise. Quanto ao per?odo em que tais fen?menos se d?o de forma significante estatisticamente notase que, em sua maioria, tais fen?menos ocorrem nos ?ltimos per?odos para as MLCX enquanto nas SMLL n?o apenas os vieses s?o menos presentes como tamb?m n?o h? concentra??o destes em nenhum per?odo. Diante do exposto, acredita-se que, embora detectese a presen?a de vieses comportamentais em certos per?odos, estes n?o aparentam tender a um tipo espec?fico de heur?stica ou e embora existam alguns ind?cios de uma sazonalidade nas Mid-Lage Caps, este mesmo comportamento n?o parece se repetir nas Small Caps. Os testes realizados sugerem ent?o que haveriam falhas moment?neas na Hip?tese de Mercados Eficientes quando testada em sua forma semi-forte conforme afirmado pelas Finan?as Comportamentais. Este resultado corrobora com a teoria ao afirmar que n?o apenas a racionalidade, mas tamb?m a irracionalidade humana, ? limitada, pois agir-se-ia racionalmente em in?meras circunst?ncias

Psychological aspects of evidence evaluation: Abstract The diploma thesis focuses on the topic of judging and decision-making within the process of evidence evaluation. Its main goal is to identify and describe cognitive illusions which can have a negative impact on the process of evidence evaluation. The mutual position of psychology and law in also considered within introductory chapters. The decision making of the judges is initially described by theoretical models. Three cognitive illusions that are essential for evidence evaluation are described in the following chapter. It is anchoring heuristic, hindsight bias and confirmation bias. Eventually risks, which these cognitive illusions represent for evidence evaluation, are described and forms of countermeasures are discussed. One chapter of the thesis is devoted to the description of ego depletion, which could pose another limit for the process of evidence evaluation. Ego depletion describes decline of self-control in cases which demand conscious effort. The judges are probably in a risk of ego depletion. This phenomenon can lead to higher vulnerability towards cognitive illusions and stronger tendency to maintain status quo. Possible countermeasures are described and discussed on one hand against anchoring, hindsight and confirmation bias and on the...

Submitted by Silvania Godoi Ferreira (silvaniagodoi@globo.com) on 2017-01-13T01:42:23Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação SILVANIA GODOI FERREIRA.pdf: 9535692 bytes, checksum: bdb8772706642edce6d67b8c49088946 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Janete de Oliveira Feitosa (janete.feitosa@fgv.br) on 2017-01-13T12:58:18Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação SILVANIA GODOI FERREIRA.pdf: 9535692 bytes, checksum: bdb8772706642edce6d67b8c49088946 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-01-23T13:13:19Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação SILVANIA GODOI FERREIRA.pdf: 9535692 bytes, checksum: bdb8772706642edce6d67b8c49088946 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-11-04 / A racionalidade dos agentes econômicos e a hipótese de eficiência de mercado são pressupostos fundamentais da teoria moderna de finanças. Porém, estudos empíricos têm constatado que o comportamento dos investidores nem sempre se mostra racional em tomada de decisão envolvendo risco. A partir dos fundamentos de racionalidade limitada apresentados por Simon (1957) e, posteriormente, estudos desenvolvidos por Kahneman e Tversky (1974 e 1979) sobre vieses cognitivos frequentemente observados no comportamento humano e a perspectiva relativa em tomada de decisão, surgiu o campo de Finanças Comportamentais. Esta dissertação teve por objetivo investigar o efeito da heurística da ancoragem sobre os preços e a tomada de decisão em investimentos imobiliários em fundos de pensão. O setor brasileiro de fundos de pensão conta com 307 instituições e sua carteira imobiliária soma R$ 32,7 bilhões (março/2016). O mapeamento de riscos envolvidos no processo decisório de investimentos é de grande importância para os fundos de pensão cujo objetivo é gerir seu patrimônio para prover o pagamento de benefícios a seus participantes. Neste sentido, o estudo do efeito da heurística da ancoragem sobre os preços dos imóveis contribui como uma forma de identificação de risco para a tomada de decisão em relação a este tipo de investimento. O método de investigação utilizado foi baseado no modelo de mensuração desenvolvido por Jacowitz e Kahneman (1995), cujo objetivo é medir a extensão dos efeitos da ancoragem por meio de um índice de ancoragem (IA). A heurística da ancoragem foi testada, em outros estudos acadêmicos similares, para estimativa de preços de imóveis residenciais. A contribuição deste estudo foi ampliar a pesquisa para imóveis corporativos, categoria de ativo que compõe as carteiras de investimento imobiliários dos fundos de pensão. Os resultados apontaram que a heurística da ancoragem afeta, de forma significativa, a avaliação dos preços dos imóveis e o processo decisório em fundos de pensão. / The rationality of economic agents and the market efficiency hypothesis are fundamental assumptions of the modern finance theory. However, empirical studies have found that investors' behavior are not always rational in decision-making under risk. From the ground for bounded rationality presented by Simon (1957) and studies developed by Kahneman and Tversky (1974 and 1979) on cognitive biases often observed in human behavior and the relative perspective in decision-making, the field of behavioral finance emerged. This work aims to investigate the effect of anchoring heuristic on prices and decision-making in pension funds real estate investments. The pension funds sector has 307 institutions and its real estate portfolio reaches R$ 32.7 billion (March, 2016). Risk mapping involved in the investment decision-making process is of great importance for pension funds whose objective is to manage its assets to provide benefit payments to its participants. Thus, the study of the effect of anchoring heuristics on real estate prices contributes as a way of identifying risk for decision making in relation to this type of investment. The research method was based on the measurement model developed by Jacowitz and Kahneman (1995), which aims at measuring the extent of the anchoring effects by using an anchoring index (AI). The anchoring heuristic was tested in other similar academic studies to estimate residential property prices. The contribution of this study lays on extending the research to corporate real estate, asset category that makes up the real estate investment portfolios of pension funds. The results show that the anchoring heuristic significantly affect property price assessments and the decision-making process in pension funds.