This dissertation contains three chapters. Each applies the tools of applied microeconomics to questions in labor economics, the economics of education, and social economics, respectively. In the first chapter, which is joint work with Amanda Pallais, we present the results of a series of field experiments in an online labor market designed to test whether workers referred to a firm by existing employees perform differently from their non-referred counterparts and, if so, why. We find that referred workers have higher performance and lower turnover than non-referred workers. We demonstrate a large role for selection: referred workers perform better and persist longer even at jobs to which they are not referred at a firm where their referrers do not work. Team production is also important: referred workers are much more productive when working with their own referrer than with someone else's referrer. / Economics

This thesis uses nonparametric revealed preference methods to derive new tests for consistency with models of consumer behaviour, and discuss the implications for welfare analysis. Chapter 1 demonstrates how to conduct revealed preference analysis when prices, and hence budget constraints, are only partially observed. This chapter extends the revealed preference results of Crawford and Polisson (2015), derived for the static case, to dynamic settings, allowing for storability of goods. Necessary and sufficient conditions for consistency with intertemporal models are derived, which do not require the researcher to distinguish between corner solutions and unavailability of the good, or to impute prices. Chapter 2 discusses the validity of using reported happiness measures as proxies of utility or social welfare, by testing for consistency between revealed and reported preference orderings in Japanese household survey data. Although the expenditure behaviour of most households is consistent with standard models of utility maximisation, it is generally inconsistent with the preference ordering given by their reported happiness. This inconsistency is likely due to reporting error in the happiness measure, and suggests that happiness and utility are empirically distinct and noninterchangeable. Chapter 3 investigates the effect of price inattention on inflation misperceptions and cost-of-living indices, by developing a behavioural model in which consumers only notice price changes above a certain threshold. A data application, using supermarket scanner data, demonstrates that this model generates plausible results; in particular, consumers have more accurate perceptions of inflation during periods of high or volatile inflation, but may substantially misperceive inflation when it is low. These results have important implications for conducting welfare analysis when consumers are not fully attentive to price changes.

The thesis consists of a short introduction and three self-contained analytical chapters on land policy in developing countries. Chapter 1 examines the agricultural investment choices of small-scale farmers in Ethiopia whose land will be expropriated to provide space for a large factory. I use data from a survey of households conducted before expropriation occurred, but after the policy was announced. I identify the anticipation effects of land expropriation using variation in whether households own plots located inside or outside the proposed project boundary. Households facing immediate expropriation hedge against future income risk by using less fertilizer on their plots, and and growing less risky crops. These households are more likely to grow sorghum (a safe crop) and less likely to grow wheat (a relatively riskier crop). Households also respond to the threat of expropriation by reducing long-term investments in soil quality. Using two-stage least squares I show that subjective beliefs about the likelihood of expropriation act as a channel through which the threat of expropriation affects investment decisions. The results are robust to a number of other specifications, including some that account for unobservable geographic variation in plot characteristics. Chapter 2 explores the consequences of land expropriation for small-scale farmers in Ethiopia. Expropriation of farmland is used by all levels of government in Ethiopia as a tool for providing new land for industrial investors, commercial agriculture and expanding cities. Farmers usually receive a cash payment in exchange for their land based on a fixed formula to establish the price of land. I evaluate the impact of such a policy on a group of small-scale farmers and assess the extent to which they make the transition to new livelihoods. On average, households lose 70% of their land and receive compensation payments that are about 5 times the value of their annual consumption expenditure. Using data collected before and after the intervention I examine the impact of expropriation and compensation on household consumption, productive assets, livestock holdings, savings and labour market participation. Households in the treatment group increase their consumption, start more businesses and participate more in non-farm activities than households that do not lose farmland. These households also reallocate livestock portfolios away from oxen and towards small ruminants and cattle, reflecting a shift away from growing crops. However, these shifts to new livelihoods are relatively small compared to the amount of compensation kept as savings: with the exception of a few households, most of the compensation payment is left in commercial banks earning a negative real return. Chapter 3 focuses on the recent increase in large-scale agricultural land deals across Africa and the nature of the contracts reached by governments and foreign investors. In recent years, multi-national firms and foreign governments have entered into long term contracts with host countries in which large tracts of land are purchased or leased for commercial agricultural production in exchange for promises of infrastructure development, job creation and rural infrastructure improvement. The profitability of these projects is uncertain, especially at a time of increased agricultural commodity price volatility in world markets. Based on stylized facts about land deals I present a theoretical model of land contracts reached by host governments and foreign investors that explains the policy tradeoff between investment timelines, revenue generation and uncertainty. When agricultural projects require fixed infrastructure investment and yield uncertain payoffs, firms benefit from being able to complete the fixed investment in stages. If firms can learn more about payoffs by holding off on investment, they effectively hold an option to abandon the project. The value of this option provides a channel by which uncertainty affects the terms of the land contract. When host governments determine the terms of the contract by setting an income tax, a royalty rate and an investment timeline, the value of this option will affect government's optimal policy choice. In particular, I find that if governments benefit a great deal from investment spillovers the optimal contract will be designed to encourage firms not to abandon a project. But, if governments benefit relatively little from investment spillovers, governments will choose contract parameters to extract the value of the firm's option to abandon the project. I end by examining the effect of increasing uncertainty on the government's optimal policy choice.

Low agricultural productivity is a persistent challenge in developing economies. In the first chapter of the dissertation, I study the concurrent but independently implemented expansion of rural roads and extension in Ethiopia to examine how access to markets and technologies affect agricultural productivity. Using geospatial data combined with large surveys and exploiting the staggered roll-out of the two programs, I show that there are strong complementarities between roads and extension. While ineffective in isolation, access to both a road and extension increases productivity. I find that roads and extension improve productivity by facilitating the take up of agricultural advice and modern inputs. Furthermore, households adjust crop choices and shift across occupations in response to their changing comparative advantages in access to markets and technologies. In the second chapter of the dissertation, co-authored with Samuel Bazzi and Martin Fiszbein, we study the long-run implications of the American frontier experience for culture and politics. We track the frontier throughout the 1790–1890 period and construct a novel, county-level measure of total frontier experience (TFE). Historically, frontier locations had distinctive demographics and greater individualism. Long after the closing of the frontier, counties with greater TFE exhibit more pervasive individualism and opposition to redistribution. We provide suggestive evidence on the roots of frontier culture: selective migration, an adaptive advantage of self-reliance, and perceived opportunities for upward mobility through effort. Overall, our findings shed new light on the frontiers persistent legacy of rugged individualism. In the third chapter of the dissertation, I use plant level census data to examine the effects of two policies designed to support prioritized sub-sectors and regions on the productivity of the Ethiopian manufacturing sector. The first policy, implemented during 1996-2002, was an activist industrial policy favoring import substitution while the second policy, active during 2003-2012, emphasized export promotion. I find that there is severe misallocation in Ethiopian manufacturing sector, but it has subsided over the studied period. The results suggest that the priority sector support policies have exacerbated the misallocation, and the within-sector variations of the policies largely account for the dispersion in revenue productivity.

This dissertation contains three chapters in the field of development economics and applied microeconomics. The first chapter studies the effect of higher education on an individual’s life outcomes and how the effect evolves over her life cycle. The second chapter examines how a woman-centered, preference-based counseling procedure shapes women’s contraceptive preferences and behavior. The third chapter investigates the impact of construction activities of transportation infrastructure on local economic outcomes. Chapter 1 examines the effect of higher education on an individual’s life outcomes, and how the effect evolves over her life cycle. I use as a natural experiment the most ambitious educational reform in Chinese history, the reinstatement of the National College Entrance Examination (the Gaokao) following the end of the Cultural Revolution. Using Census data in 1990 and 2000, I find discontinuous changes in the likelihood of completing high school and attending college around a cutoff birth date, which are shown to be induced by the policy shock. Through a combination of regression discontinuity and difference-in-difference methods, this chapter finds that cohorts that were more likely to complete high school and obtain a college education as a result of the reform were more likely to have a high-socioeconomic (SES) occupation in their early 30s, and the effect becomes smaller in their 40s. More educated cohorts, and in particular women, tend to marry later. Individuals with higher education were less likely to be ever married in their 40s. Finally, individuals with higher education tend to delay childbearing and migrate more in both their 30s and 40s, plausibly due to greater returns to migration for the more educated. Chapter 2 (with Mahesh Karra) examines how a woman-centered, preference-based approach to family planning counseling shapes women's contraceptive preferences and behavior. By implementing a randomized controlled trial in urban Malawi, we explore how a woman's decision-making may be shaped by: 1) the number and types of contraceptive methods presented to her based on her stated preferences for contraception (targeted counseling); and 2) the presence of her husband / male partner at the time of counseling. Women were subsequently offered free transport and access to family planning methods and services at a clinic for one month. We find that women who received targeted counseling were 15.6 percent less likely to be using their stated ideal contraceptive method at follow-up and were 17.5 percent more likely to exhibit discordance between their stated and ideal method at follow-up. On the other hand, women who were encouraged to invite their husbands to the counseling session were 13.5 percent less likely to change their stated ideal method from counseling to follow-up but 16.6 percent more likely to be using their stated ideal method at follow-up. While both approaches aim to achieve the goal of ``helping women make informed choices on family planning'', neither seems to yield strictly preferred outcomes for women. Chapter 3 investigates how the construction of the three earliest high-speed railway (HSR) lines in mid-Southern China affects economic activity. By formulating a set of counterfactual railway lines following the HSR planbook (MLTRP) issued by the central government, and by utilizing nighttime light data (NTL) from 1992 to 2013, I implement an event-study analysis to quantify how HSR construction transforms the local economic activity as proxied by the NTL. Furthermore, I employ county-level data on economic indicators to pin down the channels at work underlying the effects. I find that: 1) the grid-level NTL significantly increased compared to the counterfactual regions one year after the HSR construction, but there is no significant impact following the operation of the HSR lines; 2) the positive construction impacts can be explained by the provisions of associated local amenities, temporary clearing of households, as well as structural transformation from agricultural towards non-agricultural sectors.

Questa tesi è una raccolta di due capitoli che indagano due temi distinti di ricerca in economia del lavoro e dell'istruzione. Nel primo capitolo, si studiano gli effetti causali di una nuova politica di ammissione selettiva introdotta presso il Dipartimento di Economia di una importante università private situata nel nord d'Italia. Si trovano significativi miglioramenti nei risultati accademici degli studenti del primo anno che sono esposti alla nuova politica di ammissione in termini di una riduzione del tasso di abbandono scolastico e di un aumento dei crediti compiuti. Nel secondo capitolo di questa tesi, da un'altra parte, si fornisce un'evidenza recente sulla struttura dinamica e di autocovarianza del reddito di lavoro maschile italiano e si caratterizzano gli shock sul reddito del lavoro per tutto il ciclo di vita sfruttando dei dati amministrativa di grande scala provenienti dagli archivi dell'INPS. Osserviamo un aumento sostanziale della varianza del reddito degli individui di età compresa tra 50 e 60 anni. Tali risultati suggeriscono che questo aumento della varianza è guidato dall'aumento della varianza sia del componente transitorio che permanente della disuguaglianza di reddito. Tuttavia, l'accelerazione per gli individui sopra i 50 anni è causato dalla fluttuazione della varianza dei shock transitori. / This thesis is a collection of two chapters that investigate two different research topics in labor and education economics. In the first chapter, we study the causal effects of a new selective admission policy introduced in the Department of Economics at a leading private university located in the North of Italy. We find significant improvements in the academic outcomes of first year students who are exposed to this new admission policy in terms of reduction in the drop-out rate and increase in the average credits. In the second chapter of this thesis, on the other hand, we provide up-to-date evidence on the dynamic and autocovariance structures of Italian males' labor income and characterize labor income shocks over the life-cycle by exploiting a large-scale administrative data from the archives of Italian Social Security Administration (INPS). We observe a substantial increase in the variance of log-incomes of individuals between the ages of 50 and 60. Our results suggest that the latter increase in the variance is driven by the increases in the variances of both transitory and permanent components of income inequality. However, the accelerating pattern after age 50 is caused by the fluctuations in the variance of transitory shocks.

Le premier chapitre de cette thèse, intitulé « Optimal Vote Buying » (co-écrit avec Leon Musolff, Princeton University) s’intéresse à la corruption de comités. Il s’agit d’une contribution théorique dans laquelle nous montrons qu’il est généralement peu onéreux de corrompre une large majorité de membres du comité. En effet, lorsque le comité est largement corrompu, les membres considèrent que l’option soutenue par celui qui corrompt le comité sera probablement plébiscitée. Aucun vote ne peut alors faire basculer l’élection et les membres du comité sont prêts à accepter un pot-de-vin modeste en échange de leur vote. Dans le deuxième chapitre (co-écrit avec Emeric Henry, Sciences Po) nous étudions les interactions entre le vote et les normes sociales. Nous analysons un modèle dans lequel un groupe choisit sa propre règle. Dans une première étape, chaque membre vote pour ou contre une règle. Une fois le règlement établi, les membres du groupes choisissent une action dont les conséquences dépendent de la règle choisie. Nous étudions comment le vote et le comportement ultérieur interagissent. Enfin, le dernier chapitre (co-écrit avec Etienne Fize) traite de l’impact du service militaire obligatoire en France sur les comportements politiques. Nous trouvons d’une part que les individus ayant fait leur service militaire sont plus enclins à voter. Pour les élections de 2012, nous estimons que l’effet est de l’ordre de 4 points de pourcentage pour les élections présidentielles et atteint les 9 points pour le second tour des élections législatives. Nous étudions également les conséquences sur les préférences politiques. Nous trouvons que les anciens conscrits sont plus à droite. / In the first chapter (« Optimal Vote Buying » coauthored with Leon Musolff, Princeton University), we analyze a vote buying problem. We show that bribing a supermajority can be cheaper due to pivotal considerations. When a large number of committee members receive a bribe, they do not expect to be pivotal in the election. As a result, it is sufficient to offer them a small amount of money in exchange for their vote. Due to this mechanism, it turns out that the vote buyer generally prefers to bribe a supermajority. In the second chapter (« Voting and contributing when the group is watching » coauthored with Emeric Henry, Sciences Po) we study the interaction between the way members vote on rules and their subsequent behaviors. This analysis applies to groups who choose their own rules and who care about their image. We study how players’ considerations depend on the visibility of the process. We show that multiple norms can emerge. We discuss the problem of a social planner and the implications for welfare. The last chapter (« Military service and political participation » coauthored with Etienne Fize) investigates the impact of the French military service on political behaviors. Exploiting the suspension of mandatory conscription for French men, we find a significant and positive impact of military service on turnout. This effect ranges from 3.6 percentage points for the first round of the presidential election of 2012 to 8.9 percentage points for the second round of the legislative elections. We also investigate the impact of conscription on political preferences and we find that former conscripts are significantly more nationalist and conservative.

Cette thèse exploite une nouvelle source de données longitudinales sur les niveaux et les conditions de vie des ménages marocains en vue d’éclaircir les liens existants entre santé, protection sociale, et pauvreté, dans le cas du Maroc. Dans un premier temps, nous évaluons l’impact d’un programme national de gratuité des soins sur le recours aux soins et le poids financier des dépenses liées à la santé. En deuxième lieu, nous examinons comment les chocs de santé se répercutent sur la répartition de l’offre de santé au sein du ménage. Enfin, nous analysons les déterminants du sentiment de pauvreté au sein de la population marocaine, avec une attention particulière portée aux effets de comparaison. Les principaux résultats de ce travail sont que le programme de gratuité des soins a eu un impact positif de taille modérée sur l’accès aux soins en milieu rural, mais pas d’effet décelable en milieu urbain, ni sur les dépenses de santé. Nous montrons que les ménages marocains utilisent une gamme variée de mécanismes informels pour se protéger contre le risque financier lié à la santé ; en particulier, l’offre de travail féminine en milieu urbain réagit positivement à la maladie du chef de ménage. Enfin, nous trouvons que le sentiment de pauvreté est lié au niveau de vie moyen du groupe de référence du ménage, mais que cet effet varie en fonction de l’échelle géographique de ce groupe : le revenu moyen des voisins proches est lié négativement au sentiment de propre pauvreté, tandis que celui de la province de résidence est lié positivement à la pauvreté subjective. / This dissertation exploits a new nationally representative panel survey of household conditions in order to investigate different aspects of the health-social protection-poverty nexus in present-day Morocco. First, we assess the impact of a policy of `free health care' on access to public hospitals and health-related expenditures. Second, we investigate how shocks related to ill health are related to various coping mechanisms, in particular to the reallocation of labor within the household. Third, we analyze the determinants of the feeling of being poor in the Moroccan population, with a focus on comparison effects. We find that the free health care policy had a moderate, but positive, impact on access to health care among rural households, but a limited impact on health expenditures and no impact on consultation rates for urban household. Moroccan families use a variety of coping mechanisms to cover themselves against the financial shocks linked to illness; in particular, we show that in urban areas, female labor supply reacts positively to illness of the household head, which suggests that low female labor force participation is driven by supply-side reasons. Finally, we find that the feelings of being poor is influenced by the income of various comparison groups, albeit in different directions according to the geographical scale: the income of the comparison group at the neighborhood or village level is negatively associated with the feeling of poverty, while the income at the province level is positively correlated with one's own poverty perception.

Dans les pays de l’OCDE, le vieillissement démographique et la prévalence croissante de maladies chroniques induisent un accroissement marqué des effectifs de personnes âgées dépendantes. Répondre à la préoccupation sociétale concernant l’accompagnement des personnes en incapacité dans un contexte de pression sur les finances publiques constitue un défi majeur pour les politiques publiques. Comment les dispositifs publics visant à financer les soins de longue durée affectent les aides formelles et informelles reçues par les personnes en situation d’incapacité ? La distribution des aides médico-sociales et des restes-à-charge est-elle équitable ? Comment améliorer l’efficience et l’équité des dispositifs publics ? Cette thèse apporte un éclairage sur ces questions en mobilisant les outils conceptuels de la microéconomie et les méthodes de l’économie appliquée. Elle rassemble quatre investigations empiriques menées à partir de données françaises et néerlandaises récentes. Les 3 premiers chapitres traitent du cas français. Le chapitre 1 étudie la distinction faite entre adultes handicapés et personnes âgées dépendantes. Il évalue l’effet de la « barrière des 60 ans » sur les aides formelles et informelles reçues. Les chapitres 2 et 3 se focalisent sur le dispositif-phare destiné aux personnes âgées dépendantes, l’Allocation personnalisée d’autonomie (APA). Le chapitre 2 estime les élasticités prix et revenu de la demande d’aide à domicile des bénéficiaires de l’APA. Le chapitre 3 évalue l’équité dans l’utilisation des aides et des restes-à-charge dans le cadre de l’APA. Le chapitre 4 évalue l’équité horizontale dans l’utilisation de soins de longue durée aux Pays-Bas. Les subventions sur l’aide à domicile induisent des ajustements dans la consommation d’aide via des effets de revenu et de substitution, ce qui a des implications pour l’efficience de ces dispositifs. Des iniquités sont détectées dans les deux pays. / Dans les pays de l’OCDE, le vieillissement démographique et la prévalence croissante de maladies chroniques induisent un accroissement marqué des effectifs de personnes âgées dépendantes. Répondre à la préoccupation sociétale concernant l’accompagnement des personnes en incapacité dans un contexte de pression sur les finances publiques constitue un défi majeur pour les politiques publiques. Comment les dispositifs publics visant à financer les soins de longue durée affectent les aides formelles et informelles reçues par les personnes en situation d’incapacité ? La distribution des aides médico-sociales et des restes-à-charge est-elle équitable ? Comment améliorer l’efficience et l’équité des dispositifs publics ? Cette thèse apporte un éclairage sur ces questions en mobilisant les outils conceptuels de la microéconomie et les méthodes de l’économie appliquée. Elle rassemble quatre investigations empiriques menées à partir de données françaises et néerlandaises récentes. Les 3 premiers chapitres traitent du cas français. Le chapitre 1 étudie la distinction faite entre adultes handicapés et personnes âgées dépendantes. Il évalue l’effet de la « barrière des 60 ans » sur les aides formelles et informelles reçues. Les chapitres 2 et 3 se focalisent sur le dispositif-phare destiné aux personnes âgées dépendantes, l’Allocation personnalisée d’autonomie (APA). Le chapitre 2 estime les élasticités prix et revenu de la demande d’aide à domicile des bénéficiaires de l’APA. Le chapitre 3 évalue l’équité dans l’utilisation des aides et des restes-à-charge dans le cadre de l’APA. Le chapitre 4 évalue l’équité horizontale dans l’utilisation de soins de longue durée aux Pays-Bas. Les subventions sur l’aide à domicile induisent des ajustements dans la consommation d’aide via des effets de revenu et de substitution, ce qui a des implications pour l’efficience de ces dispositifs. Des iniquités sont détectées dans les deux pays.In OECD countries, population ageing and the increasing prevalence of some chronic diseases cause a substantial increase in the number of the disabled elderly. Responding to both the societal concern for ensuring appropriate longterm care (LTC) to the disabled and the pressure on public spending is a major challenge for public policies. How do public LTC schemes affect the use of formal and informal care by the disabled? Are there socio-economic disparities in the use of formal care? Is the allocation of LTC services and of the out-of-pocket payments incurred by the disabled elderly equitable? Which features of LTC policies could be changed to make them more efficient and more equitable? My research sheds light on these questions, using conceptual tools from microeconomics and methods in applied economics. It brings together four empirical investigations led in the contexts of France and the Netherlands, which have contrasting LTC systems. I make use of recent administrative and survey microdata. The first three Chapters focus on French policies. Chapter 1 studies the distinction that is made between the handicapped adults and the dependent elderly in access to public LTC support. It assesses the effect of the “age 60 threshold” on the formal and informal care received by individuals with a disability. Chapters 2 and 3 concentrate on the main scheme accessible to the disabled elderly, the Allocation personnalisée d’autonomie (APA). Chapter 2 estimates the income and price elasticities of formal home care demand by APA beneficiaries. Chapter 3 assesses equity in the use and financing of home care within the APA scheme. Chapter 4 lands in the Netherlands and assesses income-related horizontal equity in LTC use. Home care subsidies trigger adjustments in the use of care through both substitution and income effects. This has implications for the efficiency of such policies. Some inequity is detected in both countries.

In my dissertation, I investigate the relationship between household consumption expenditures and transitory income shocks. In the first two essays, I pay particular attention to household expenditures in the aftermath of natural disasters, which are becoming more frequent and costly in the U.S. since 1980. Additionally, I study specialty farm producers' risk attitudes after an income shock due to natural disasters. Although the permanent income hypothesis predicts that households smooth consumption over their lifetimes, credit-constrained households may find consumption smoothing impractical. This dissertation brings forth evidence regarding heterogeneity in the effect of income shocks on household expenditures. First, I find that floods and hurricanes affect food-at-home (FAH) spending in different ways. The average 15-day decrease in FAH spending is about $2 in the 90 days after a flood and about $7 in the 30 days after a hurricane. In other words, floods have a prolonged effect and hurricanes have an immediate effect. I find that floods and hurricanes remain a threat to the FAH expenditures of vulnerable households, for instance, low-income households and households in coastal states. Second, Indiana specialty farm households reduce their monthly expenses of food and miscellaneous categories by about $119 and $280, respectively, after an income loss of 20%-32%. I also find that Indiana specialty producers are less willing to take financial risk after an income loss experience, i.e., they have a decreasing absolute risk aversion. Finally, in the third essay, I show that Australian households exhibit loss aversion in consumption expenditures which also means that they behave asymmetrically in their consumption response to income shocks. However, it is only working-age younger households that show asymmetric consumption behavior as opposed to the symmetric behavior of retirement-age households. The main message of these various findings is clear: after an income shock, the magnitude of change in consumption expenditures and the saliency of certain expenditure categories for adjustment are context- and population-dependent. Hence, income support policies and post-disaster relief programs may benefit from a better understanding of the consumption behavior of beneficiary population, to achieve maximum impact through better targeting.