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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
161

Staying or leaving New Zealand after you graduate? – reflecting on brain drain and brain circulation issues facing graduates

Kaliyati, William Qinisela January 2009 (has links)
Brain drain and brain circulation are forms of skilled labour migration which have a significant impact on New Zealand’s economic growth. Based on their importance, it is suggested that economies rethink how they compete for skilled labour in an international labour market. This research study reviews economic and non-economic factors that influence an individual’s decisions to stay or leave New Zealand. Data is collected from a survey sample of Lincoln University final year undergraduate and postgraduate students, who represent New Zealand’s future skilled labour. The research study employs a data reduction technique called factor analysis to collate large sets of variables into small sets for econometric analysis. The key econometric tool, logit analysis, provides probabilities of graduates leaving New Zealand and marginal effects of changes in key economic and non-economic variables. These key findings, providing new knowledge, are used to engage in a policy discussion in the last chapter. The research study importantly maintains focus on three key stakeholders, the government, the business community and the individual/student when addressing and analysing New Zealand’s brain drain and brain circulation issues.
162

Sistemas nacionais de inovação e a dependência institucional / National innovation systems and institutional dependence

Arruda Neto, Manoel Joaquim de 06 November 2015 (has links)
The systemic approach to innovation can be studied from various perspectives, with the approach of limiting geographical or sectoral issues. This study aimed to adapt a typological approach to innovation systems for showing the weight of institutions for innovation and the ability to technological adoption. To this end, the national perspective was defined as a viable means for the treatment of rules, norms and behaviors as a key element in driving for innovation within a country. The study used a typological approach of national innovation systems (NIS) which consists in grouping division between countries like innovation systems "mature", "immature" and "other", the second, further subdivided into three categories. Data from 113 countries were selected according to the descriptions of the adopted typology, for the period from 2006 to 2014. Data were arranged to relate to innovation and technology adoption capacity with institutional variable "economic freedom". To step econometric data were arranged in panel being made to estimate models with fixed and random effects, dealing with relations between the dependent variables "innovation" and "technology adoption capacity" and the independent variable "economic freedom". The estimation results of the models of fixed and random effects show that the use of panel data econometric approach provided obtaining statistically significant, indicating a good grip of the model to hypotheses at work. After estimating the models were employed, the Wald test and the Hausman test indicated that the adoption of the model with random effects for both the model on innovation and to the technological adoption. It was found that the "economic freedom" is statistically significant in the explanation of "innovation" for almost all studied groups, except ECEC group. In conducting the explanation of the latter fact, they were raised some research that helped in the understanding that the socialist period lived in these countries caused major obstacles for the market process needed in the emergence of innovation. Economic freedom is statistically significant for technology adoption in all groups, this time there was no exception. In addition to the confirmation of the positive relationship the existence of economic freedom to innovation and the ability of technology adoption, research availed interesting results on the question of a possible relationship of poverty and innovation. It was found that economic freedom has a greater impact for innovation and imitation in poorer countries than in richer countries. To explain this result, the survey took the marginalist theory, indicating that there is a diminishing marginal utility in respect of national innovation systems to economic freedom. Thus, the more scarce institutional attributes guided by freedom, more grouping tend to attribute greater value to these institutions in driving the innovation process. / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / A abordagem sistêmica de inovação pode ser estudada a partir de várias perspectivas, tendo como limitadores da abordagem questões territoriais ou setoriais. A presente pesquisa teve como objetivo adaptar uma abordagem tipológica sobre sistemas de inovação com o intuito de evidenciar o peso das instituições para a inovação e a capacidade de adoção tecnológica. Para tanto, foi definida a perspectiva nacional como um meio viável para o tratamento das regras, normas e condutas como elemento essencial na condução para a inovação dentro de um país. O trabalho utilizou uma abordagem tipológica de sistemas nacionais de inovação (SNI) que consiste na divisão em agrupamento entre países como sistemas de inovação “maduros”, “não maduros” e “outros”, sendo o segundo, ainda subdividido em três categorias. Foram selecionados dados de 113 países seguindo as descrições da tipologia adotada, referentes ao período de 2006 a 2014. Os dados coletados foram dispostos de maneira a relacionar a inovação e a capacidade de adoção tecnológica com a variável institucional “liberdade econômica”. Para a etapa econométrica os dados foram dispostos em painel, sendo efetuada a estimação de modelos com efeitos fixos e aleatórios, tratando das relações entre as variáveis dependentes “inovação” e “capacidade de adoção tecnológica” e a variável independente “liberdade econômica”. Os resultados da estimação dos modelos de efeitos fixos e aleatórios apontam que o emprego da abordagem econométrica de dados em painel proporcionou a obtenção de estatísticas significantes, indicando uma boa aderência do modelo às hipóteses levantadas no trabalho. Após a estimação dos modelos foram empregados os testes de Wald e o teste de Hausman que indicaram a adoção do modelo com efeitos aleatórios tanto para o modelo sobre inovação quanto para o de adoção tecnológica. Verificou-se que a “liberdade econômica” é significante estatisticamente na explicação da “inovação” para quase todos os agrupamentos estudados, exceto o agrupamento ECEC. Na condução da explicação deste último fato, foram levantadas algumas pesquisas que auxiliaram no entendimento de que o período socialista vivido nestes países causou grandes entraves para o processo de mercado necessário no surgimento da inovação. A liberdade econômica se apresentou estatisticamente significante para a adoção tecnológica em todos os agrupamentos, desta vez não houve nenhuma exceção. Além da constatação da existência da relação positiva da liberdade econômica com a inovação e a capacidade de adoção tecnológica, a pesquisa auferiu resultados interessantes quanto à questão de uma possível relação da pobreza e a inovação. Verificou-se que a liberdade econômica detém um impacto maior para a inovação e a imitação em países mais pobres do que em países mais ricos. Para explicar este resultado, a pesquisa fez uso da teoria marginalista, indicando a existência de uma utilidade marginal decrescente na relação dos sistemas nacionais de inovação com a liberdade econômica. Deste modo, quanto mais escasso de atributos institucionais pautados em liberdade, mais o agrupamento tenderá a atribuir maior valor a estas instituições na condução do processo de inovação.
163

Mensuração de tarifas equivalentes de medidas técnicas e sanitárias: um estudo para as exportações brasileiras de carne bovina para a UE / Estimation of Tariff Equivalents for technical and sanitary measures: a study on Brazilian beef exports to the EU

Nathália Sbarai 19 January 2012 (has links)
Este trabalho tem como objetivo estimar as tarifas equivalentes de medidas nãotarifárias, em especial de medidas sanitárias e técnicas, impostas pela União Européia às exportações brasileiras de carne bovina. O período de análise compreende os anos de 2000 a 2009, e consideram-se carnes com e sem osso, frescas e congeladas, classificadas a seis dígitos do Sistema Harmonizado. A revisão de literatura identifica um número considerável de exigências técnicas e sanitárias, incidentes sobre o comércio da carne bovina brasileira, justificando a necessidade de mensurar o impacto dessas medidas. Estimam-se dois modelos, assumindo homogeneidade e heterogeneidade dos bens, seguindo a metodologia proposta, respectivamente, por Deardorff e Stern (1997) e Yue, Beghin e Jensen (2005). Em geral, a partir dessa estimação são observadas tarifas equivalentes elevadas, i.e., observa-se que os preços domésticos europeus e os preços mundiais, no mercado de carne bovina, diferem entre si, o que pode indicar que o mercado da UE está sendo, de fato, protegido por medidas nãotarifárias além das tarifárias. Ao se considerar diferentes níveis de preferência dos consumidores europeus pela carne doméstica, verificam-se estimativas negativas para as tarifas equivalentes. A estimação de tarifas equivalentes é útil, pois estas podem ser incluídas como variáveis explicativas em outros modelos econométricos visando analisar seus impactos sobre o comércio. Contudo, essa estimação enfrenta a dificuldade de obtenção de dados suficientemente detalhados para preços internacionais e domésticos dos países compradores de carne, bem como de informações mais acuradas sobre fretes e grau de preferência dos consumidores. / This research aims at estimating the tariff equivalent of NTMs, especially of technical and sanitary measures, enforced by the European Union to the Brazilian beef exports. The analysis is implemented for the years 2000 to 2009, and we consider the trade of frozen and fresh beef, with bone and boneless, classified to the six-digit of the Harmonized System. The literature review points to a considerable number of technical and sanitary requirements that affect Brazilian beef trade, and therefore provides arguments to evaluate their impacts. Two models are estimated, assuming both homogeneity and heterogeneity of goods, and following, respectively, the methodology proposed by Deardorff and Stern (1997) and Yue, Beghin and Jensen (2005). In general, we observe high estimates for tariff equivalents, i.e., the European domestic prices and the world prices actually differ, which could indicate that the European market has been effectively protected by NTMs, besides tariffs. By modeling beef as an heterogeneous good and incorporating different levels of consumers preference in favor to domestic beef, negative estimates of tariff equivalents are found. The estimation of tariff equivalents is useful because they can be used as explanatory variable in other econometric models in order to evaluate their impacts on trade. However, this estimation faces difficulties in obtaining international prices detailed for beef categories, as well as domestic importing prices, and accurate data on freights and consumers preferences.
164

Mensuração de tarifas equivalentes de medidas técnicas e sanitárias: um estudo para as exportações brasileiras de carne bovina para a UE / Estimation of Tariff Equivalents for technical and sanitary measures: a study on Brazilian beef exports to the EU

Sbarai, Nathália 19 January 2012 (has links)
Este trabalho tem como objetivo estimar as tarifas equivalentes de medidas nãotarifárias, em especial de medidas sanitárias e técnicas, impostas pela União Européia às exportações brasileiras de carne bovina. O período de análise compreende os anos de 2000 a 2009, e consideram-se carnes com e sem osso, frescas e congeladas, classificadas a seis dígitos do Sistema Harmonizado. A revisão de literatura identifica um número considerável de exigências técnicas e sanitárias, incidentes sobre o comércio da carne bovina brasileira, justificando a necessidade de mensurar o impacto dessas medidas. Estimam-se dois modelos, assumindo homogeneidade e heterogeneidade dos bens, seguindo a metodologia proposta, respectivamente, por Deardorff e Stern (1997) e Yue, Beghin e Jensen (2005). Em geral, a partir dessa estimação são observadas tarifas equivalentes elevadas, i.e., observa-se que os preços domésticos europeus e os preços mundiais, no mercado de carne bovina, diferem entre si, o que pode indicar que o mercado da UE está sendo, de fato, protegido por medidas nãotarifárias além das tarifárias. Ao se considerar diferentes níveis de preferência dos consumidores europeus pela carne doméstica, verificam-se estimativas negativas para as tarifas equivalentes. A estimação de tarifas equivalentes é útil, pois estas podem ser incluídas como variáveis explicativas em outros modelos econométricos visando analisar seus impactos sobre o comércio. Contudo, essa estimação enfrenta a dificuldade de obtenção de dados suficientemente detalhados para preços internacionais e domésticos dos países compradores de carne, bem como de informações mais acuradas sobre fretes e grau de preferência dos consumidores. / This research aims at estimating the tariff equivalent of NTMs, especially of technical and sanitary measures, enforced by the European Union to the Brazilian beef exports. The analysis is implemented for the years 2000 to 2009, and we consider the trade of frozen and fresh beef, with bone and boneless, classified to the six-digit of the Harmonized System. The literature review points to a considerable number of technical and sanitary requirements that affect Brazilian beef trade, and therefore provides arguments to evaluate their impacts. Two models are estimated, assuming both homogeneity and heterogeneity of goods, and following, respectively, the methodology proposed by Deardorff and Stern (1997) and Yue, Beghin and Jensen (2005). In general, we observe high estimates for tariff equivalents, i.e., the European domestic prices and the world prices actually differ, which could indicate that the European market has been effectively protected by NTMs, besides tariffs. By modeling beef as an heterogeneous good and incorporating different levels of consumers preference in favor to domestic beef, negative estimates of tariff equivalents are found. The estimation of tariff equivalents is useful because they can be used as explanatory variable in other econometric models in order to evaluate their impacts on trade. However, this estimation faces difficulties in obtaining international prices detailed for beef categories, as well as domestic importing prices, and accurate data on freights and consumers preferences.
165

DEVELOPMENT AND VALIDATION OF A SURVEY INSTRUMENT TO MEASURE FORMER MEMBER PERCEPTIONS OF YOUTH DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATIONS

Alee L Gunderson (9183551) 30 July 2020 (has links)
<div>The purpose of this research was to develop and validate an instrument designed to assess programming of youth development organizations. The instrument can be used by leaders of youth development organizations to monitor the organization’s performance in developing productive and engaged citizens. This research viewed youth development organizations as a microsystem that youth interact with (Bronfenbrenner & Morris, 2006). A complete review of the literature on youth development organizations was conducted to determine the components of positive youth development organizations. The resulting conceptual framework consisted of project, skills and knowledge, community contribution, high-density experiences, environment, non-parental adult, and near-peer role models.</div><div><br></div><div>An item pool was developed based on the literature available on youth development organization programming. This item pool was reviewed by experts in youth development organization programming and inclusion. Then the items were entered into two tools to assess grammar and concise language. Third, the items were administered to a small sample then analyzed for correlations and contributions to reliability. Items were eliminated if they correlated too highly with other items and if they did not contribute to the reliability of the scale. Fourth, the items were administered to a broader sample and correlations and reliability measures were analyzed again with more items removed. Finally, the items were administered to another sample and analyzed for multicollinearity and reliability. The final sample took the survey a second time and responses were compared based on paired t-tests to establish test-retest reliability.<br></div><div><br></div><div>The 15-item instrument exhibits appropriate measures of validity and reliability to recommend its usage by youth development organization leaders to evaluation programming. The instrument is parsimonious so leaders can add program-specific questions while avoiding participant fatigue. A complete version of the instrument is available in the appendices.</div>
166

A LIFE CYCLE ANALYSIS OF FOREST MANAGEMENT DECISIONS ON HARDWOODS PLANTATIONS

Sayon Ghosh (15361603) 26 April 2023 (has links)
<p>In the Central Hardwood Region, the quantity and quality of hardwood timber critically depend on forest management decisions made by private landowners, since they hold the largest share of woodlands, some of which are plantations. These plantations are in a unique and critical position to provide much-needed hardwood resources. However, there is a lack of research and tools enabling rigorous assessments of profitability of long-term investments in hardwood plantations. Partially due to this, the majority of these privately held plantations remain unmanaged.</p> <p>This study aims at providing scientific evidence and tools to help promote forest management on hardwood plantations held by private landowners. To this end, I demonstrate in Chapter 1 an economic-modeling approach that minimizes establishment costs while ensuring free-to-grow status by year 5, and crown closure by year 10. Using temperate hardwoods such as black walnut and red oak as focal species, I find a black walnut plantation can attain crown closure in year six at the lowest cost ($4,540/ha) with 6 feet x 7 feet spacing, herbicide application for the first year, and fencing. For red oak, the minimum-cost option ($5,371/ ha) which achieves crown closure in year 10 requires a planting density of 6 feet x 7 feet, herbicide application for the first three years, and fencing. Modelling uncertainty in growth and mortality in a stochastic counterpart shifts optimal solutions to denser plantings for black walnut; planting more trees is, thus, risk mitigative. Based upon these research outcomes, I identify the tradeoffs between efficacy of treatments towards establishment success viz a viz their relative costs which serve as a solid foundation for the assessment of subsequent management strategies.</p> <p>Next, in chapter 2, I first calibrate growth, yield, and crown-width models for black walnut trees with existing and new tree measurements on selected Hardwood Tree Improvement and Regeneration Center (HTIRC) plots. Using spatial information on trees, I develop an individual tree level thinning model and simulate their post-thinning growth and yield. Significant predictors of annual diameter growth between years 10 to 18 include the initial tree DBH, forest edge effects, distance-dependent neighborhood competition, and tree age. Significant edge effects exist up to 3 rows and 3 trees from the non-forested edge. A tree on the perimeter rows grows 0.30 cm (0.12in.) in DBH more per year than the interior trees, between years 10 to 18. Next, I dovetail my results from the spatially explicit thinning model with the USFS Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) to understand the impacts of different scenarios of planting densities, site productivities, thinning treatments, and expected yields (as percentage of the total volume) of veneer sawlogs to quantify the growth and profitability from the mid-rotation until the final harvest. To support the attendant financial analyses, I incorporate risk into these projections by simulating stochastic windthrows based on certain assumptions. My projections suggest that, without the threat of windthrow damage, the net present day value (NPV) could exceed $4,900 per acre on the highest quality sites (SI =100) and high densities at planting (6 feet x 6 feet), assuming 10% or more of final volume was veneer and using a 3% discount rate. In contrast, under simulations of probable windthrow disturbances from mid-rotation to final harvest, the chances that standing timber value at harvest exceeds $5,000 per acre are 43.13% for a 96- and 90-year rotation and increase to 45.48% for 75 and further to 56.04% for 60.</p>
167

Essays in Economics

Abigail R Banan (16534107) 12 July 2023 (has links)
<p>This dissertation consists of three chapters on economic topics related to crime and early childhood. In the first chapter, I explore the effect of a criminal justice policy on crime. The second chapter examines the relationship between gender nonconformity in childhood and life outcomes. In the third chapter, I study the relationship between access to local mental health care for children and juvenile crime.  </p> <p><br></p> <p>In my first chapter, I study the causal impact of post-release supervision on recidivism and new crime. Prior to 2011, inmates who committed lower-level offenses in North Carolina were not subject to post-release supervision. The North Carolina \textit{Justice Reinvestment Act} changed policy to require nine months of post-release supervision. Leveraging a discrete policy effective date in a regression discontinuity in time model and using administrative data from the North Carolina Department of Public Safety, I explore the effects of this legislative change on criminal outcomes. Evidence indicates that post-release supervision decreases property and violent crimes, but these changes do not persist beyond the supervision period. Results suggest that supervision leads to more individuals returning to prison at a faster rate due to technical, not criminal, violations; however, requiring lower-level offenders to undergo post-release supervision is a cost-effective program.  </p> <p><br></p> <p>The second chapter of this dissertation is coauthored with Torsten Santavirta and Miguel Sarzosa. We study the role of childhood gender conformity in determining gender gaps. We present a conceptual framework that uses gender norms to explain why some women make less profitable choices than comparable men. Using unique longitudinal survey and register data, we show that gender-nonconforming girls have substantially better education and labor market outcomes than gender-conforming girls. In contrast, gender-nonconforming boys perform substantially worse at school, sort into lower-paying occupations, earn less, and have a greater incidence of mental health disorders and substance abuse during adulthood than gender-conforming boys. Our analyses suggest that such divergence develops from an early age. </p> <p><br></p> <p>In my last chapter, I explore the relationship between mental health care for children and juvenile crime. Using data with information on facilities that specifically treat children, I exploit the county-level variation in the number of mental health treatment facilities for minors in a two-way fixed-effects model to explore the relationship between access to mental health care in a given year and juvenile crime the following year. I find that outpatient and inpatient mental health facilities for children have heterogeneous effects on juvenile crime.</p>
168

An economic analysis of the domestication of the tuna fishery - the case of Kiribati

Yeeting, Agnes David January 2009 (has links)
The Western and Central Pacific Ocean (WCPO) is home to the largest tuna fishery stock in the world. However, Pacific Island members of the Western and Central Pacific Tuna Commission (WCPTC) argue that their share of the economic rent from the tuna catches taken out of the Pacific region is very small, being on average only about 6% of the total net benefit, when compared to the share earned by Distant Water Fishing Nations (DWFNs). Kiribati is one of the Pacific Island Countries (PICs), which relies heavily on its fishery for its economic development and sustainability. Kiribati earns 40% - 50 % of its government revenue from fisheries access fees paid by DWFNs for tuna caught in the the Kiribati EEZ. The Government of Kiribati (GoK) believes that Kiribati could get greater benefit if they develop their own domestic tuna fishery. This study uses Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) and SWOT Analysis to investigate whether domestication of the tuna fishery is the right move for Kiribati or not. The CBA reported in this thesis adapted a model developed by Campbell (2004) to investigate and evaluate fisheries policy in Papua New Guinea (PNG). However the model in this thesis is reflective of the situation and case of Kiribati. In analyzing the different options identified in this study, the CBA indicated negative (-) NPV(s) for the medium-sized vessel option and positive (+) NPV(s) for the large-sized vessel option. The SWOT analysis however, complemented the CBA by further investigating the tuna domestication options in the economic, social and business and business environment of Kiribati. The SWOT analysis indicated that the existing situation and business conditions in Kiribati appears to favor the small to medium sized vessel options which are less risky than the large purse seine vessel option.
169

L'économie face aux enquêtes psychologiques 1944 -1960 : unité de la science économique, diversité des pratiques / Economics in the light of psychological surveys (1944 - 1960) : unity of science, diversity of practices

Dechaux, Pierrick 01 December 2017 (has links)
Cette thèse étudie la trajectoire historique des enquêtes psychologiques produites au Survey Research Center de l’Université du Michigan à l’initiative de George Katona. Aujourd’hui, on ne retient de ces enquêtes que les indicateurs de confiance produits chaque mois par plus de cinquante pays pour analyser la conjoncture. Pourquoi continue-t-on à produire et à utiliser ces enquêtes et ces indicateurs alors qu’un consensus s’est produit en macroéconomie et en microéconomie autour d’un ensemble de modèles qui n’en font pas l’usage ? Pour répondre à cette question, on étudie plusieurs controverses qui se sont produites autour des enquêtes du Michigan entre 1944 et 1960. On montre que l’époque est caractérisée de décisions au sein des gouvernements et du monde des affaires. La thèse montre que si ces débats sont peu connus des économistes aujourd’hui, c’est parce qu’ils se sont poursuivis dans des champs disciplinaires périphériques à l’économie. Ces disciplines sont concernées par des problèmes pratiques dont les économistes théoriciens se sont progressivement détournés. En proposant une analyse des liens entre la théorie économique et sa mise en pratique, cette thèse offre une nouvelle manière d’appréhender l’histoire de la macroéconomie récente et de l’économie comportementale. L’histoire des dynamiques intellectuelles d’après-guerre ne se résume ni à des innovations théoriques, ni à un nouveau rapport entre la théorie et l’empirie. En effet, ces dynamiques reposent aussi sur la redéfinition des frontières entre la science et son art ; entre d’un côté l’économie et de l’autre le marketing et la conjoncture. / This dissertation looks at the historical development of George Kantona's psychological surveys at the Survey Research Center at the University of Michigan. The main legacy of this work has been the widespread adoption of confidence indicators. They are used each month by more than fifty countries and widely implemented by business managers and forecasters. How do we explain the widespread usage of these indicators despite a prevalent consensus in macroeconomics and microeconomics that does not consider them as important tools? In order to answer this question, we study several controversies that occurred around Michigan surveys between 1944 and 1960. It is shown that this era is characterized by many interdisciplinary exchanges guided by the practical needs of decision-makers in governments and private companies. I show that if economists know little about these debates, it is because they were maintained in disciplinary fields on the periphery of economics. These fields are centered on practical problems that theoretical economists progressively abandoned. This thesis offers a new way of understanding the history of recent macroeconomics and behavioral economics by proposing an analysis of the links between economic theory and its application in practice. For instance, the history of post-war intellectual dynamics cannot be reduced to theoretical innovations or to a new relationship between theory and empiricism. Indeed, these dynamics rely also on the transformation of the boundaries between the science and its art; between the economy on the one hand and marketing and forecasting on the other.
170

Quantificação dos efeitos das barreiras não-tarifárias sobre as exportações brasileiras de carne bovina. / Quantification of non-tariff barriers effects on brazilian beef exports.

Miranda, Silvia Helena Galvao de 14 September 2001 (has links)
Este estudo teve como meta propor uma metodologia que permitisse avaliar, quantitativamente, os impactos de barreiras não-tarifárias (BNTs), em especial as técnicas e sanitárias, sobre os volumes e preços das vendas externas de carne bovina brasileira. O período de análise compreendeu desde o mês de janeiro de 1992 a dezembro de 2000, tendo-se considerado dois mercados especificamente: o dos cortes especiais de traseiro e dianteiro destinados à União Européia e o do corned beef para os EUA. Os dados básicos utilizados foram cedidos pela Associação Brasileira de Indústrias Exportadoras de Carnes Industrializadas (ABIEC). A hipótese deste trabalho foi a de que as questões técnicas/sanitárias interferem nas vendas externas de carnes bovinas do Brasil. Essa interferência dá-se sobre os volumes transacionados, os preços de negociação ou sobre ambos. Para a consecução do objetivo exposto foi, inicialmente, realizado um levantamento dos métodos já utilizados para mensurar efeitos de barreiras comerciais. Não foi encontrado um instrumental específico que atendesse à proposta deste trabalho. Assim, optou-se por construir um modelo reduzido para vendas externas desses produtos. Foram estimadas regressões visando identificar a influência das principais variáveis de oferta e demanda domésticas e da demanda internacional. A partir desses modelos, foi conduzida uma análise do comportamento dos resíduos, para identificação de outliers que pudessem refletir impactos de eventos de natureza sanitária ou de outros com caráter exógeno, não captados pelas variáveis explicativas. Uma vez constatados resíduos anormais, associados a eventos de interesse para este estudo, foram ajustados modelos de intervenção, de forma a permitir obter estimativas desses impactos diretamente sobre as séries de preços e volumes e estabelecer o padrão de influência da intervenção. Para a seleção das variáveis explicativas e dos eventos de interesse elaborou-se uma descrição detalhada sobre o mercado exportador do produto e seus fatores determinantes, domésticos e externos. Além da revisão de literatura, foram aplicados questionários e realizadas entrevistas junto ao setor exportador dessas carnes. Verificou-se que grande parte das variações nos volumes e preços das vendas externas foram explicadas pelas variáveis representativas dos fundamentos do mercado, como taxa de câmbio, preço do boi gordo, renda do Brasil, preços de países concorrentes, entre outras. Foram obtidos coeficientes de determinação elevados tanto para os modelos para cortes especiais quanto para os de corned beef. Para o volume e preços de exportação do corned beef destinado aos EUA também mostraram-se significativos os coeficientes dos preços médios de exportação brasileira desse produto para a UE. A maior parte da variação naqueles preços foi explicada por variáveis da demanda externa. No caso do modelo de intervenção para preços dos cortes especiais, a intervenção em março de 1995 mostrou-se significativa, com efeito de reduzir os preços, durante três meses. Este efeito pode estar relacionado à proibição das importações européias de carne de São Paulo e Minas Gerais naquele período. De modo geral, as intervenções relacionadas a eventos sanitários não se mostraram significativas ou não apresentaram resultados conclusivos. Possivelmente, a utilização de dados regionalizados para Circuitos Pecuários poderia gerar resultados mais claros sobre os impactos desses eventos. / This research aimed to develop a methodology to evaluate quantitatively non-tariff barriers impacts, mainly technical and sanitary, on the quantities and prices of Brazilian beef foreign sales. The analysis was implemented for the period from January/1992 to December/2000, considering two specific markets: European Union market for special beef cuts (chilled or frozen.) and the United States market for corned beef. Export basic data were provided by Associação Brasileira de Indústrias Exportadoras de Carnes Industrializadas (ABIEC). This study’s hypothesis was that technical/sanitary issues influence the Brazilian beef exports. The impact is expected either on transaction volumes, prices or both. In order to reach the objective the methods already employed to measure trade barriers effects were reviewed. No specific instrument to apply to this study proposition was found. Then, a reduced form model was built to explain the products external sales. Regressions were estimated in order to identify the influence of main domestic supply and demand variables as well as international demand factors. The residuals of those models were analyzed to indentify the outliers that could reflect impacts of sanitary and other exogenous events, not measured by the explanatory variables. Since abnormal residuals were found, that could be related to relevant events. Intervention models were adjusted to permit to obtain impact estimates directly on prices and quantities series and stablish the intervention influence pattern. A detailed description on beef export market and its determinants, both internal and external was presented. Besides the literature review, questionnaires were applied to beef exporting industries. Results show that a great part of external sales volume and price variations were due to market fundamental variables, like exchange rate, cattle price, Brazil income, prices of competitive countries and others. High determination coefficients were observed both for special cuts and corned beef models. Coefficients for average prices of Brazilian corned beef exports to European Union were significant to explain prices and volumes of corned beef exports to USA. Most of those prices variations were due to external demand variables. In the intervention model analysis for special cuts, the 1995 March point was significant, indicating a reduction effect on those product prices, for three months. This effect can be related to the embargo of European imports to the São Paulo and Minas Gerais States beef exports, during that period. In general, interventions results related to sanitary events were not significant or conclusive. Possibly, data regionalization for Cattle Circuits could generate clear results on those events impacts.

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