Compared to the globalized markets of goods and services, technology production has been often described as “far from globalized” and mainly concentrated in the home country of multinational enterprises. However, academics and international organizations recognize that research and development (R&D) activities are increasingly performed at the international level. In particular, the globalization of innovation is a major concern since it is at the crossroads of the rising importance of knowledge economy and the increasing international slicing of firms’ value chains. In this context, the main motivations of this thesis are to investigate the extent to which innovation takes place across national borders and to analyze the drivers of this phenomenon across countries and across industries. For this purpose, this dissertation provides new evidence on the globalization of innovation in four empirical essays using patent-based indicators.<p><p>First, the relevance of patent statistics as indicators of innovation is evaluated by studying the relationship between expenditures in R&D activities and patenting efforts. Chapter 2 decomposes this relationship at the industry level to shed light on the origins of the worldwide surge in patent applications. The empirical investigation of the R&D-patent relationship relies on a unique panel dataset composed of 18 manufacturing industries in 19 countries covering the period from 1987 to 2005, for which five broad patent indicators are developed. This study shows that patent applications at the industry level reflect not only research productivity, but also two main components of the propensity to patent which are firms’ strategic considerations: the decision to protect an invention with a patent (the “appropriability strategy”) and the number of patents filed to protect an innovation (the “filing strategy”). The comparison between the results for various patent count indicators provides also interesting insights. While some industries (computers and communication technologies) and countries (South Korea, Spain, and Poland) have experienced a drastic increase in patent applications, the ratio of priority patent applications to R&D expenditures has been generally constant. This result suggests that there has been no spurt in innovation productivity. In contrast, regional applications (filings at the United States Patent and Trademark Office or at the European Patent Office) have been increasing since the early 1990s, suggesting that the patent explosion observed in large regional patent offices is due to the greater globalization of intellectual property rights rather than a surge in research productivity. Innovative firms are increasingly targeting global markets and hence have a higher tendency to seek protection in key markets worldwide.<p><p>Chapter 3 introduces, firstly, aggregate patent-based indicators to measure the globalization of innovation production. Secondly, it describes the patterns in international technology production for a large panel dataset covering 21 industries in 29 countries from 1980 to 2005. A strong growth in the intensity of globalization of innovation is confirmed not only in terms of cross-border ownership of innovation, but also in terms of international technological collaborations. More interestingly, heterogeneity across countries and industries is observed. On the one hand, more innovative countries (or industries) do not present more globalized innovation footprint. On the other hand, the ownership of innovation is still strongly concentrated in a few countries, although its location is increasingly dispersed across the world. Thirdly, it investigates empirically two main opposing motives driving the internationalization of innovation: home-base augmenting and home-base exploiting strategies. The results show that the degree of internationalization of innovation is negatively related to the revealed technological advantage of countries across industries. Countries tend to be more technologically globalized in industrial sectors in which they are less technologically specialized. The empirical findings suggest also that countries with multidisciplinary technological knowledge are more likely to take part in international co-inventions of new technologies and to be attractive for foreign innovative firms. This aggregated patent-based analysis provides additional evidence that globalization of innovation is a means of acquiring competences abroad that are lacking at home, suggesting that home-base augmenting motives matter in the globalization of innovation production. By contrast, the internationalization of innovation does not seem to be purely market-driven since large economies are not the target of foreign innovative firms and international patenting is more related to international competitiveness of country-industry pairs than to the direction of trade flows.<p><p>While the previous chapter studies the globalization of innovation of a country with the rest of world, Chapter 4 aims at explaining who collaborates with whom in the international production of technology. In particular, the impact of technological distance between partner’s economies is investigated for a panel dataset covering international co-inventions between 29 countries in 21 industries between 1988 and 2005. The descriptive analysis highlights that the overall growth in internationalization of innovation is due to both the increase in the number of international innovative actors and the rise of the average intensity of collaboration. The empirical findings then suggest that the two main arguments related to technological distance – ‘similarity versus diversity’ – can be reconciled by taking an industry approach. Indeed, the estimation results show that the impact of technological distance is twofold on the intensity of collaborative innovation at industry level. On the one hand, the more similar the industry-specific knowledge of two countries (low technological distance within the industry), the more easily they collaborate by sharing common industrial knowledge. On the other hand, the more different their non-industry-specific knowledge (high technological distance outside the scope of the industry), the more they collaborate to gain access to broad and interdisciplinary expertise. It suggests that the relative absorptive capacity between partner’s economies and the search for novel and complementary knowledge are key drivers of the globalization of innovation. Moreover, the results confirm the moderating effect of non-technological distance factors (spatial proximity, ease of communication, institutional proximity, and overall economic ties) in cross-border innovative relationships. <p><p>The topic of Chapter 5 is the cost-benefit analysis of the creation of a new ‘globalized’ patent: the EU Patent (formerly known as Community Patent) which consists in a single patent covering the entire EU territory for both application procedure and legal enforcement after grant. The objective of this chapter is threefold: (i) simulate the budgetary consequences in terms of renewal fees’ income for the European and national patent offices; (ii) evaluate the implications for the business sector in terms of absolute and relative fees; (iii) assess the total economic impact for the most important actors of the European patent system. Based on an econometric model explaining the determinants of the maintenance rate of patents, the simulations suggest that – with a sound renewal fee structure – the EU patent could generate more income for nearly all patent offices than under the current status quo. It would, at the same time, substantially reduce the relative patenting costs for applicants. Finally, the loss of economic rents by patent attorneys, translators and lawyers, and the drop of controlling power by national patent offices elucidate further the persistence of a fragmented European patent system.<p> / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

1. The context: The European patent system has been affected by substantial changes over the past three decades, which have raised vigorous debates at different levels. The main objective of the present dissertation is to contribute to these debates through an exploratory analysis of different changes in patenting practices – in particular the way applications are drafted and filed to patent offices –, their drivers, association with the value of patents, and potential impact on the patent system. The coming essays are therefore empirical in their essence, but are inspired by economic motivations and concerns. Their originality is threefold: it resides in the novelty of the main questions discussed, the comprehensive database specifically built to address them, and the range of statistical methods used for this purpose. The main argument throughout these pages is that patenting practices have significantly evolved in the past decades and that these developments have affected the patent system and could compromise its ability to fulfil its economic purpose. The economic objective of patents is to encourage innovation and its diffusion through the public disclosure of the inventions made. But their exploitation in the knowledge economy has assumed so many different forms that inventors have supposedly developed new patenting and filing strategies to deal with these market conditions or reap the maximum benefits from their patents. The present thesis aims at better understanding the dimensions, determinants, and some potential consequences of these developing practices.<p><p>2. The evolution: Chapter 2 presents a detailed descriptive analysis of the evolution in the size of patent applications filed to the European Patent Office (EPO). In this chapter, we propose two measures of patent voluminosity and identify the main patterns in their evolution. Based on a dataset with about 2 million documents filed at the EPO, the results show that the average voluminosity of patent applications – measured in terms of the number of pages and claims contained in each document – has doubled over the past 25 years. Nevertheless, this evolution varies widely across countries, technologies and filing procedures chosen by the applicant. This increasing voluminosity of filings has a strong impact on the workload of the EPO, which justifies the need for regulatory and policy actions.<p><p>3. The drivers: The evolution in patent voluminosity observed in chapter 2 calls for a multivariate analysis of its determinants. Chapter 3 therefore proposes and tests 4 different hypotheses that may contribute to explaining the observed inflation in size: the influence of national laws and practices and their diffusion to other countries with the progressive globalization of patenting procedures, the complexification of research activities and inventions, the emergence of new sectors with less established norms and vocabularies, and the construction of patent portfolios. The econometric results first reveal that the four hypotheses are significantly associated with longer documents and are therefore empirically supported. It appears however that the first hypothesis – the diffusion of national drafting practices through international patenting procedures – is the strongest contributor of all, resulting in a progressive harmonization of drafting styles toward American standards, which are longer by nature. The portfolio construction hypothesis seems a less important driver but nevertheless highlights substantial changes in patenting practices. These results raise two questions: Do these evolving patenting practices indicate more valuable patents? Do they induce any embarrassment for the patent system?<p><p>4. Measuring patent value: If the former of these two questions is to be addressed, measures are needed to identify higher value patents. Chapter 4 therefore proposes a review of the state of the art on patent value indicators and analyses several issues in their measurement and interpretation. Five classes of indicators proposed in the literature may be obtained directly from patent databases: the number of countries in which each patent is enforced, the number of years during which each patent has been renewed, the grant decision taken, the number of citations received from subsequent patents, and whether it has been opposed by a third party before the EPO. Because the former two measures are closely connected (the geographical scope of protection and length of maintenance can hardly be observed independently), they have been subjected to closer scrutiny in the first section of chapter 4, which shows that these two dimensions have experienced opposite evolutions. A composite measure – the Scope-Year Index – reveals that the overall trend is oriented downwards, which may suggest a substantial decline in the average value of patents. The second section of chapter 4 returns to the five initial classes of measures and underlines their main patterns. It appears that most of them witness the well-known properties of patent value: a severe skewness and large country and technology variations. A closer look at their relationships, however, reveals a high degree of orthogonality between them and opposite trends in their evolution, suggesting that they actually capture different dimensions of a patent’s value and therefore do not always pinpoint the same patents as being the most valuable. This result strongly discourages the reliance on one of the available indicators only and opens some avenue for the creation of one potential composite index of value based upon the five indicators to maximize the chances of capturing all potentially valuable patents in a large database. The proposed index reflects the intensity of the signal provided by all 5 constituting indicators on the potential value of each patent. Its declining trend reflects a rarefaction of this signal on average, leading to different plausible interpretations.<p><p>5. The links with patent value: Based upon the six indicators of value proposed in chapter 4 (the five classical ones plus the composite), the question of the association between filing strategies and the value of patents may be analysed. This question is empirically addressed in chapter 5, which focuses on all EPO patents filed between 1990 and 1995. The first section presents a comprehensive review of the existing evidence on the determinants of patent value. The numerous contributions in the field differ widely along three dimensions (the indicator of value chosen as dependent variable, the sampling methodology, and the set of variables tested as determinants), which have translated into many ambiguities across the literature. Section 2 proposes measures to identify different dimensions of filing strategies, which are essentially twofold: they relate to the routes followed by patent filings toward the EPO (PCT, accelerated processing), and to their form (excess claims, share of claims lost in examination), and construction (by assembly or disassembly, divisional). These measures are then included into an econometric model based upon the framework provided by the literature. The proposed model, which integrates the set of filing strategy variables along with some of the classical determinants, is regressed on the six available indicators separately over the full sample. In addition, the sensitivity of the available results to the indicator and the sampling methodology is assessed through 18 geographic and 14 industrial clustered regressions and about 30 regressions over random samples for each indicator. The estimates are then compared across countries, industries and indicators. These results first reveal that filing strategies are indicative of more valuable patents and provide the most stable determinants of all. And third, the results do confirm some classical determinants in their positive association with patent value, but highlight a high degree of sensitivity of most of them to the indicator or the sample chosen for the analysis, requiring much care in generalizing such empirical results.<p><p>6. The links with patent length: Chapter 6 focuses on one particular dimension of patent value: the length of patents. To do so, the censored nature of the dependent variable (the time elapsed between the filing of a patent application and its ultimate fall into the public domain) dictates the recourse to a survival time model as proposed by Cox (1972). The analysis is original in three main respects. First of all, despite the fact that renewal data have been exploited for about two decades to obtain estimates of patent value (Pakes and Schankerman, 1984), this chapter provides – to the best of our knowledge – the first comprehensive analysis of the determinants of patent length. Second, whereas most of the empirical literature in the field focuses on granted patents and investigates their maintenance, the analysis reported here includes all patent applications. This comprehensive approach is dictated by the provisional rights provided by pending applications to their holders and by the legal uncertainty these represent for competitors. And third, the model integrates a wide set of explanatory variables, starting with the filing strategy variables proposed in chapter 5. The main results are threefold: first, they clearly show that patent rights have significantly increased in length over the past decades despite a small apparent decline in the average grant rate, but largely due to the expansion of the examination process. Second, they indicate that most filing strategies induce considerable delays in the examination process, possibly to the benefit of the patentee, but most certainly to the expense of legal uncertainty on the markets. And third, they confirm that more valuable patents (more cited or covering a larger geographical scope) take more time to process, and live longer, whereas more complex applications are associated with longer decision lags, but also with lower grant and renewal rates.<p><p>7. Conclusions: The potential economic consequences and some policy implications of the findings from the dissertation are discussed in chapter 7. The evolution of patenting practices analysed in these works has some direct consequences for the stakeholders of the patent system. For the EPO, they generate a considerable increase in workload, resulting in growing backlogs and processing lags. For innovative firms, this phenomenon translates into an undesired increase in legal uncertainty, for it complicates the assessment of the limits to each party’s rights and hence of the freedom to operate on a market, which is precisely what the so-called ‘patent trolls’ and ‘submariners’ may be looking for. Although empirical evidence is lacking, some fear that this may result in underinvestment in research, development or commercialization activities (e.g. Hall and Harhoff, 2004). In addition, legal uncertainty is synonymous with an increased risk of litigation, which may hamper the development of SMEs and reduce the level of entrepreneurship. Finally, for society, we are left with a contrasted picture, which is hard to interpret. The European patent system wishes to maintain high quality standards to reduce business uncertainty around granted patents, but it is overloaded with the volume of applications filed, resulting in growing backglogs which translate into legal uncertainty surrounding pending applications. The filing strategies that contribute to this situation might reflect a legitimate need for more time and flexibility in filing more valuable patents, but they could also easily turn into real abuses of the system, allowing some patentees to obtain and artificially maintain provisional rights conferred by pending applications on inventions that might not meet the patentability requirements. Distinguishing between these two cases goes beyond the scope of the present dissertation, but should they be found abusive, they should be fought for they consume resources and generate uncertainty. And if legitimate, then they should be understood and the system adapted accordingly (e.g. by adjusting fees to discourage some strategies, raising the inventive step, fine-tuning the statutory term in certain technologies, providing more legal tools for patent examiners to reject unpatentable applications, etc.) so as to better serve the need of inventors for legal protection in a more efficient way, and to adapt the patent system to the challenges it is or will be facing. / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Around the world, knowledge and technology transfer have moved to the forefront of attention in economic, social and industrial policy. As the origins of future development increasingly derives from innovation, attention is paid more and more to non-traditional sources that have the potential to become the basis for creation of new businesses or the catalyser for the rejuvenation of old ones. Among those sources, we find university. These last years, academic patents have been one of the emerging phenomena witnessing the growing evolvement of university in the innovation process. The aim of this doctoral dissertation is to analyse the transfer of technology from university to industry through the analysis of patents. This work pursuits a threefold approach. First, it intends to analyse which characteristics determine the propensity of a university to get involved in technology transfer and more specifically to apply for a patent. Second, it disentangles the underlining value determinants of the patents to decode the value of academic patents and to identify the research processes that are leading to the most valuable inventions. Finally, it investigates the relevancy of academic patenting for innovation in general and wonders if on the long run, such practices could put innovation at risk. / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Ce mémoire étudie le risque de longévité pour un régime de retraite à prestations déterminées dans un contexte québécois et canadien. On le définit comme le risque que les retraités vivent significativement plus longtemps que prévu, occasionnant des pertes pour le régime. Afin de le quantifier, on a recours à des données du Régime de pensions du Canada (RPC), du Régime de rentes du Québec (RRQ) et de la Base de données sur la longévité canadienne (BDLC) permettant l’utilisation de différentes variables explicatives (âge, année, cohorte, revenu et région). Une projection stochastique de la mortalité sur plusieurs sous-populations est effectuée selon un cadre général inspiré de Hunt et Blake (2014) et une approche de modèle relatif de Villegas et Haberman (2014). Selon les modèles identifiés et retenus dans ce mémoire, une évolution défavorable de la mortalité pour un régime de retraite, à un niveau de confiance de 95 %, pourrait occasionner une hausse d’environ 5% du coût des rentes pour les femmes et de 10 à 15 % du coût des rentes pour les hommes. Ces hausses de coût se comparent, pour une hypothèse de rendement de 4 % (i = 4,0 %), à une diminution de 0,4 % (i = 3,6 %) de cette hypothèse pour les femmes et de 1,0 % (i = 3,0 %) pour les hommes. Également, les résultats de la modélisation tendent à démontrer l’ordre suivant quant à l’importance relative des variables étudiées afin d’expliquer le niveau de la mortalité des femmes et des hommes : 1) l’âge 2) l’année 3) le revenu (proxy socio-économique) 4) la région (RPC vs RRQ). Il n’a pas été possible de déterminer qu’une variable de cohorte était nécessaire pour améliorer la modélisation de la mortalité des retraités canadiens.

Doctorat en Sciences politiques et sociales / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

L’urbanisation des pays développés et en voie de développement entraîne des effets négatifs liés à la pollution de l’air, aux émissions de gaz à effet de serre et à la congestion dans les villes. Cette thèse étudie les effets des formes urbaines sur la pollution, la congestion, les distances domicile-travail et le bien-être des citadins. Nous construisons un modèle théorique de ville polycentrique incluant des choix de localisation résidentielle avec la présence d’externalités négatives de pollution et de congestion provenant des flux de transport, où la localisation des lieux d’emploi est déterminée de manière endogène. Une analyse empirique des déterminants spatiaux des distances et des temps de déplacement domicile-travail est menée avec les aires métropolitaines françaises comme cas d’étude. Cette thèse souligne la nécessité d'une approche prudente pour mettre en œuvre certaines politiques urbaines qui garantiraient un développement durable des villes. Une ville polycentrique peut être une ville souhaitable ou non en fonction (i) de l'accessibilité des lieux d’emplois, (ii) de la qualité de l'infrastructure routière (vitesse élevée ou non), (iii) de la densité d'emploi dans les villes et de (iv) la répartition de la population et des emplois. Cette thèse démontre également le rôle significatif de la demande de logements endogène sur les structures urbaines en présence d’une externalité négative de congestion des transports non tarifée. Certains projets de densification urbaine devraient reconsidérer et quantifier les externalités négatives (congestion et pollution) qui surviennent lorsque la population augmente dans une ville. Ces externalités sont des coûts indirects dus à l'ajustement de la demande de logements et de transport à long terme. / Urbanization in developed and developing countries has major drawbacks regarding air pollution, Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions and congestion externalities due to transport in car-based cities. In this thesis, we study the effects of urban design on pollution, congestion, traveled distances and welfare. We build a theoretical model of residential choices with pollution and congestion externalities arising from commuting, where the location of jobs within the city is endogenous. Finally we collect data from French metropolitan areas to conduct an empirical analysis of spatial determinants of commuting time and distances. This thesis highlights the need of a cautious approach to implement some urban policies that would guarantee a sustainable development of a city. A polycentric city may be a desirable city or not depending on the (i) accessibility of workplaces, (ii) the quality of road infrastructure (high speed), (iii) the employment density and (iv) the distribution of population and workplaces in cities. This thesis also demonstrates the significant role of the housing demand on urban structure when the latter is endogenous in a context of unpriced transport congestion. Some urban densification project might reconsider and quantify the negative externalities (congestion and pollution) which arise when the population grows within any city. These externalities are indirect costs due to the adjustment of the housing and transport demand in the long run.

Doctorat en sciences sociales, politiques et économiques / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Cette thèse s’intéresse à la stabilité financière. Nous considérons plusieurs modèles économétriques visant à offrir une meilleure compréhension des perturbations pouvant affecter les systèmes bancaires et financiers. L’objectif ici est de doter les institutions publiques et réglementaires d’un éventail plus large d’instruments de surveillance. Dans le premier chapitre, nous appliquons un modèle logit visant à identifier les principaux déterminants des crises financières. En plus des variables explicatives traditionnelles suggérées par la littérature, nous considérons une mesure des coûts de transactions (l’écart acheteur-vendeur) sur les marchés financiers. Nos estimations indiquent que des coûts de transactions élevés sont généralement associés à des risques accrus de crises financières. Dans un contexte où l’instauration d’une taxe sur les transactions financières (TTF) ferait augmenter les coûts de transactions, nos résultats suggèrent que l’instauration d’une telle taxe pourrait accroître les probabilités de crises financières. Dans le second chapitre, nous analysons la formation des risques financiers dans un contexte où le nombre de données disponibles est de plus en plus élevé. Nous construisons des prédicteurs de faillites bancaires à partir d’un grand ensemble de variables macro-financières que nous incorporons dans un modèle à variable discrète. Nous établissons un lien robuste et significatif entre les variables issues du secteur immobilier et les faillites bancaires. Le troisième chapitre met l’emphase sur la prévision des créances bancaires en souffrance (nonperforming loans). Nous analysons plusieurs modèles proposés par la littérature et évaluons leur performance prédictive lorsque nous remplaçons les variables explicatives usuelles par des prédicteurs sectoriels construits à partir d’une grande base de données. Nous trouvons que les modèles basés sur ces composantes latentes prévoient les créances en souffrance mieux que les modèles traditionnels, et que le secteur immobilier joue à nouveau un rôle important. / The primary focus of this thesis is on financial stability. More specifically, we investigate different issues related to the monitoring and forecasting of important underlying systemic financial vulnerabilities. We develop various econometric models aimed at providing a better assessment and early insights about the build-up of financial imbalances. Throughout this work, we consider complementary measures of financial (in)stability endowing hence the regulatory authorities with a deeper toolkit for achieving and maintaining financial stability. In the first Chapter, we apply a logit model to identify important determinants of financial crises. Alongwiththetraditionalexplanatoryvariablessuggestedintheliterat ure, weconsider a measure of bid-ask spreads in the financial markets of each country as a proxy for the likely effect of a Securities Transaction Tax (STT) on transaction costs. One key contribution of this Chapter is to study the impact that a harmonized, area- wide tax, often referred to as Tobin Tax would have on the stability of financial markets. Our results confirm important findingsuncoveredintheliterature, butalsoindicatethathighertransactioncostsaregenerally associated with a higher risk of crisis. We document the robustness of this key result to possible endogeneity effects and to the 2008−2009 global crisis episode. To the extent that a widely-based STT would increase transaction costs, our results therefore suggest that the establishment of this tax could increase the risk of financial crises. In the second Chapter, we assess the build-up of financial imbalances in a data-rich environment. Concretely, we concentrate on one key dimension of a sound financial system by monitoring and forecasting the monthly aggregate commercial bank failures in the United States. We extract key sectoral predictors from a large set of macro-financial variables and incorporate them in a hurdle negative binomial model to predict the number of monthly commercial bank failures. We find a strong and robust relationship between the housing industry and bank failures. This evidence suggests that housing industry plays a key role in the buildup of vulnerability in the banking sector. Different specifications of our model confirm the robustness of our results. In the third Chapter, we focus on the modeling of non-performing loans (NPLs), one other dimension along with, financial vulnerabilities are scrutinized. We apply different models proposed in the recent literature for fitting and forecasting U.S. banks non-performing loans (NPLs). We compare the performance of these models to those of similar models in which we replace traditional explanatory variables by key sectoral predictors all extracted from the large set of potential U.S. macro-financial variables. We uncover that the latent-componentbased models all outperform the traditional models, suggesting then that practitioners and researchers could consider latent factors in their modeling of NPLs. Moreover, we also confirm that the housing sector greatly impacts the evolution of non-performing loans over time.

Dans cette thèse nous avons exploré trois questions de recherche sur le commerce international dans le sector agricole. Dans le premier chapitre, nous avons regardé l’implication des coûts marginaux croissants sur la durée des flux d’exportation. Les récentes études empiriques suggèrent que les firmes ont des coûts marginaux croissants. Par conséquent, les ventes d’une firme sur un marché influent sur ses coûts et sa compétitivité sur tous les marchés, et donc sur sa survie sur divers marchés d’exportation. L’objectif de mon premier essai est la mise au point d’un cadre théorique permettant d’étudier l’incidence des coûts marginaux croissants et des contraintes de capacité sur les marges extensives et intensives des échanges commerciaux et sur la durée des exportations. Contrairement au cas avec coûts marginaux constants, avec une structure convexes des coûts, une augmentation de la productivité des firmes n’induit pas obligatoirement une augmentation des destinations. Nos résultats empiriques attestent que que les exportations perdues suite aux flux terminés accroissent les exportations vers les "marchés de repli" et réduisent la probabilité d’un échec d’exportation. À l’instar des autres études sur la survie des exportations, les tarifs réduisent la probabilité de l’échec d’exportation, mais nous montrons qu’ils ont l’effet opposés lorsque l’endogénéité est résolue. Le deuxième essai s’intéresse à l’effet des maladies animales sur les flux commerciaux bilatéraux et la fermeture des frontières. Le commerce international des animaux vivants et des produits d’origine animal est très souvent entravé par les épidémies animales qui se propagent très vite entre pays. Nous nous appuyons sur un cadre empirique fondé sur le modèle de sélection multivariés pour examiner l’impact des maladies spécifiques aux animaux sur les marges extensives et intensives des flux commerciaux dans le temps. Les résultats montrent que la fièvre aphteuse et la ’encéphalopathie spongiforme bovine (ESB) ont un impact négatif sur les marges extensives et intensives du commerce des bovins et du boeuf et ce, pendant approximativement sept années. Nos résultats suggèrent que les effets des maladies animales sur la marge extensive sont plus grands que leur effets correspondants sur la marge intensive. En ce qui concerne les effets inter-espèces, la grippe aviaire et la peste porcine réduisent la probabilité et le niveau des échanges de bovins et de boeufs. Dans le troisième chapitre, nous estimons l’effet d’une élimination hypothétique des maladies animales sur les flux commerciaux. Plus spécifiquement, nous examinons comment ESB et la fièvre aphteuse impactent les flux commerciaux de viande bovine. Le modèle de gravité structurelle sectorielle est utilisé pour mésurer les effets directs, conditionnels et globaux, en permettant ainsi aux indices de résistance multilatéraux entrants et sortants et aux prix à la production de s’ajuster à l’éradication des maladies animales. Les canaux indirects par lesquels l’ESB et la fièvre aphteuse influent sur le commerce sont importants. Notre expérience contrefactuelle suggère que le Canada serait l’un des pays tirant le meilleur parti de l’éradication de l’ESB et de la fièvre aphteuse. / Dans cette thèse nous avons exploré trois questions de recherche sur le commerce international dans le sector agricole. Dans le premier chapitre, nous avons regardé l’implication des coûts marginaux croissants sur la durée des flux d’exportation. Les récentes études empiriques suggèrent que les firmes ont des coûts marginaux croissants. Par conséquent, les ventes d’une firme sur un marché influent sur ses coûts et sa compétitivité sur tous les marchés, et donc sur sa survie sur divers marchés d’exportation. L’objectif de mon premier essai est la mise au point d’un cadre théorique permettant d’étudier l’incidence des coûts marginaux croissants et des contraintes de capacité sur les marges extensives et intensives des échanges commerciaux et sur la durée des exportations. Contrairement au cas avec coûts marginaux constants, avec une structure convexes des coûts, une augmentation de la productivité des firmes n’induit pas obligatoirement une augmentation des destinations. Nos résultats empiriques attestent que que les exportations perdues suite aux flux terminés accroissent les exportations vers les "marchés de repli" et réduisent la probabilité d’un échec d’exportation. À l’instar des autres études sur la survie des exportations, les tarifs réduisent la probabilité de l’échec d’exportation, mais nous montrons qu’ils ont l’effet opposés lorsque l’endogénéité est résolue. Le deuxième essai s’intéresse à l’effet des maladies animales sur les flux commerciaux bilatéraux et la fermeture des frontières. Le commerce international des animaux vivants et des produits d’origine animal est très souvent entravé par les épidémies animales qui se propagent très vite entre pays. Nous nous appuyons sur un cadre empirique fondé sur le modèle de sélection multivariés pour examiner l’impact des maladies spécifiques aux animaux sur les marges extensives et intensives des flux commerciaux dans le temps. Les résultats montrent que la fièvre aphteuse et la ’encéphalopathie spongiforme bovine (ESB) ont un impact négatif sur les marges extensives et intensives du commerce des bovins et du boeuf et ce, pendant approximativement sept années. Nos résultats suggèrent que les effets des maladies animales sur la marge extensive sont plus grands que leur effets correspondants sur la marge intensive. En ce qui concerne les effets inter-espèces, la grippe aviaire et la peste porcine réduisent la probabilité et le niveau des échanges de bovins et de boeufs. Dans le troisième chapitre, nous estimons l’effet d’une élimination hypothétique des maladies animales sur les flux commerciaux. Plus spécifiquement, nous examinons comment ESB et la fièvre aphteuse impactent les flux commerciaux de viande bovine. Le modèle de gravité structurelle sectorielle est utilisé pour mésurer les effets directs, conditionnels et globaux, en permettant ainsi aux indices de résistance multilatéraux entrants et sortants et aux prix à la production de s’ajuster à l’éradication des maladies animales. Les canaux indirects par lesquels l’ESB et la fièvre aphteuse influent sur le commerce sont importants. Notre expérience contrefactuelle suggère que le Canada serait l’un des pays tirant le meilleur parti de l’éradication de l’ESB et de la fièvre aphteuse. / In standard trade models with constant average cost, the firm’s sales in any given market is related to other markets only through price indices which are treated as exogenous in the firm’s optimization. With cost convexity, the firm’s decision in any given market is directly tied to sales in other markets through an index aggregating the trade cost-adjusted market size of the destinations supplied by the firm. The difference made by increasing costs is that the firm is cognizant that by changing its sales in a given destination it changes its unit cost for all destinations. This in turn triggers extensive and intensive margins adjustments. In the first essay, we develop a theoretical framework to address the incidence of increasing marginal costs and capacity constraints on trade at the extensive and the intensive margins and on export duration. Under convex costs, an increase in productivity may not increase the number of destinations supplied by a firm, making "ins and outs", not just new entries. We generated empirical evidence in support of the aforementioned trade adjustments by assessing the incidence of lagged foregone exports on exports to "fallback markets" and on export survival. Exports to the fallback markets systematically increase in response to foregone sales from terminated trade flows. Similarly, the sum of foregone sales from terminated trade flows make existing trade flows more resilient, less prone to an export failure. A distinguishing feature of our survival models is that they test and correct for the endogeneity of tariffs. Previous studies reported peculiar results about the incidence of tariff on export survival. We too find wrong signs when tariff is treated as an exogenous variable, but we find that higher tariffs increase the likelihood of export failures when tariff endogeneity is addressed. The second essay investigates the dynamic impacts of animal disease outbreak on cattle and beef trade accounting for vertical linkage between cattle and beef. The empirical framework features a multi-sample selection model (MSSM) to investigate how animal-specific diseases affect aggregate trade flows at the extensive and intensive margins of trade in livestock and meat products over time, accounting for constraints imposed by the technological linkages between livestock and meat productions. The spontaneous emergence of foot and mouth disease adversely impacts the extensive and intensive margins of trade in cattle and beef for seven years. Our results show that the extensive margin effects of the disease outbreak are larger than its corresponding intensive margin effects. Regarding cross-species effects, the avian flu and swine fever reduce the probability and the level of trade in cattle and beef. The third essay studies a counterfactual experiment about the elimination of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and the foot and mouth diseases (FMD) on beef trade flows. Disease outbreak alerts typically prompt importing countries to impose trade bans. The bans vary a lot across importing countries in terms of product coverage and duration. We rely on a unique balanced panel dataset that covers 4-digit disaggregated beef product over the 1996-2013 period. Previous gravity studies reported only partial trade flow effects. However, a large shock like the complete elimination of BSE and FMD diseases must affect the inward and outward multilateral resistance indices (i.e., the importing countries’ barriers on beef imports from all sources and the trade barriers faced by exporting countries in all destinations), factory-gate prices, consumer expenditures and the value of beef production in exporting countries. Our results confirm that the indirect channels through which BSE and FMD impact trade are important when it comes to measuring welfare gains. Interestingly, our counterfactual experiment suggests that Canada would be one of the countries gaining the most from BSE and FMD eradication. / In standard trade models with constant average cost, the firm’s sales in any given market is related to other markets only through price indices which are treated as exogenous in the firm’s optimization. With cost convexity, the firm’s decision in any given market is directly tied to sales in other markets through an index aggregating the trade cost-adjusted market size of the destinations supplied by the firm. The difference made by increasing costs is that the firm is cognizant that by changing its sales in a given destination it changes its unit cost for all destinations. This in turn triggers extensive and intensive margins adjustments. In the first essay, we develop a theoretical framework to address the incidence of increasing marginal costs and capacity constraints on trade at the extensive and the intensive margins and on export duration. Under convex costs, an increase in productivity may not increase the number of destinations supplied by a firm, making "ins and outs", not just new entries. We generated empirical evidence in support of the aforementioned trade adjustments by assessing the incidence of lagged foregone exports on exports to "fallback markets" and on export survival. Exports to the fallback markets systematically increase in response to foregone sales from terminated trade flows. Similarly, the sum of foregone sales from terminated trade flows make existing trade flows more resilient, less prone to an export failure. A distinguishing feature of our survival models is that they test and correct for the endogeneity of tariffs. Previous studies reported peculiar results about the incidence of tariff on export survival. We too find wrong signs when tariff is treated as an exogenous variable, but we find that higher tariffs increase the likelihood of export failures when tariff endogeneity is addressed. The second essay investigates the dynamic impacts of animal disease outbreak on cattle and beef trade accounting for vertical linkage between cattle and beef. The empirical framework features a multi-sample selection model (MSSM) to investigate how animal-specific diseases affect aggregate trade flows at the extensive and intensive margins of trade in livestock and meat products over time, accounting for constraints imposed by the technological linkages between livestock and meat productions. The spontaneous emergence of foot and mouth disease adversely impacts the extensive and intensive margins of trade in cattle and beef for seven years. Our results show that the extensive margin effects of the disease outbreak are larger than its corresponding intensive margin effects. Regarding cross-species effects, the avian flu and swine fever reduce the probability and the level of trade in cattle and beef. The third essay studies a counterfactual experiment about the elimination of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and the foot and mouth diseases (FMD) on beef trade flows. Disease outbreak alerts typically prompt importing countries to impose trade bans. The bans vary a lot across importing countries in terms of product coverage and duration. We rely on a unique balanced panel dataset that covers 4-digit disaggregated beef product over the 1996-2013 period. Previous gravity studies reported only partial trade flow effects. However, a large shock like the complete elimination of BSE and FMD diseases must affect the inward and outward multilateral resistance indices (i.e., the importing countries’ barriers on beef imports from all sources and the trade barriers faced by exporting countries in all destinations), factory-gate prices, consumer expenditures and the value of beef production in exporting countries. Our results confirm that the indirect channels through which BSE and FMD impact trade are important when it comes to measuring welfare gains. Interestingly, our counterfactual experiment suggests that Canada would be one of the countries gaining the most from BSE and FMD eradication.

Résumé de la thèse : L’essor du journalisme à une échelle industrielle à partir du XIXe siècle s’est principalement construit sur la mise en rapport d’investissements et intérêts nombreux, remise en question dans le contexte de l’économie numérique. Ce travail de recherche veut contribuer à la compréhension des transformations contemporaines du journalisme en s’intéressant aux conditions d’existence matérielle de cette pratique de production discursive, aux changements qui se déploient dans les organisations médiatiques ainsi qu’aux stratégies et discours qui sont mobilisés. En France et au Québec, cette recherche porte sur deux groupes médiatiques, Ouest-France et Québecor, impliqués notamment dans la presse écrite et se saisissant des problématiques liées au numérique depuis le milieu des années 1990. Les modèles d’affaires des deux groupes et les intérêts des différents acteurs se voient modifiés, sans que le journalisme ne parvienne à assurer une autonomie économique. Sa position de subordination se voit renforcée dans les modèles et dispositifs progressivement déployés. Cette transformation en cours, au sein des groupes industriels, se construit alors autant au travers de changements organisationnels que dans et par le discours. Ce travail repose sur des approches empiriques croisées, permettant une analyse documentaire au sein et autour des deux groupes, ainsi qu’une analyse du discours, fondée notamment sur des entretiens avec des dirigeants, cadres et travailleurs de l’information. Au croisement de ces approches, c’est la transformation du journalisme et de son économie qui apparaît, non comme un objectif à venir, mais comme un processus à l’œuvre. Déployant ses priorités, elle se construit autant dans les investissements que les discours, et laisse des traces qui sont l’objet de ce travail doctoral. Mots-clés : Journalisme, Internet, Web, Médias numériques, Entreprises de presse, Presse -- Aspect économique, Modèles d’entreprise, Analyse du discours. / Thesis abstract : The rise of journalism at an industrial scale from the XIXth century was mainly based upon the economic alliance between several interests and investments sources, and which are now challenged in the digital economy context. This research aims at contributing to a better understanding of the contemporary transformations of this practice of discursive production, together with changes taking place within media organizations as well as strategies and discourses at stake. In both France and Quebec, this research focus on two media groups, Ouest-France and Québecor, notably involved in newspapers, and confronted with digital issues since the mid-1990s. Both business models and stakeholders interests are changing, while journalism does not manage to ensure economic independence. Its subordination position is somewhat reinforced through models and apparatuses gradually rolled out. This ongoing transformation is built through both organizational changes and discourse. This doctoral research was based on cross-empirical approaches, using document analysis within and around the two groups, as well as discourse analysis. The latter was based in particular on interviews with executives, managers and information workers. This research design and the junction of these approaches reveal that the transformation of journalism and its economy appears not as mere goal to com, but as a process already at work. By leaving some records and traces, covered by this doctoral work, this transformation builds as well upon investments and discourses. Keywords : Journalism, Internet, Web, Digital media, Newspaper publishing, Press -- Economic aspects, Business Models, Discourse analysis.