In this research, we consider production/inventory management decisions of a rmthat sells its product in two market segments during a nite planning horizon. In thebeginning of each period, the rm makes a decision on how much to produce basedon the production capacity and the current on-hand inventory available. After theproduction is made at the beginning of the period, the rm rst satises the stochasticdemand from customers in its primary market. Any primary market demand thatcannot be satised is lost. After satisfying the demand from the primary market, ifthere is still inventory on hand, all or part of the remaining products can be sold ina secondary market with ample demand at a lower price. Hence, the second decisionthat the rm makes in each period is how much to sell in the secondary market, orequivalently, how much inventory to carry to the next period.The objective is to maximize the expected net revenue during a nite planninghorizon by determining the optimal production quantity in each period, and theoptimal inventory amount to carry to the next period after the sales in primary andsecondary markets. We term the optimal inventory amount to be carried to the nextperiod as \economic retention quantity". We model this problem as a nite horizonstochastic dynamic program. Our focus is to characterize the structure of the optimalpolicy and to analyze the system under dierent parameter settings. Conditioning on given parameter set, we establish lower and upper bounds on the optimal policyparameters. Furthermore, we provide computational tools to determine the optimalpolicy parameters. Results of the numerical analysis are used to provide furtherinsights into the problem from a managerial perspective.

In this research, we consider production/inventory management decisions of a rmthat sells its product in two market segments during a nite planning horizon. In thebeginning of each period, the rm makes a decision on how much to produce basedon the production capacity and the current on-hand inventory available. After theproduction is made at the beginning of the period, the rm rst satises the stochasticdemand from customers in its primary market. Any primary market demand thatcannot be satised is lost. After satisfying the demand from the primary market, ifthere is still inventory on hand, all or part of the remaining products can be sold ina secondary market with ample demand at a lower price. Hence, the second decisionthat the rm makes in each period is how much to sell in the secondary market, orequivalently, how much inventory to carry to the next period.The objective is to maximize the expected net revenue during a nite planninghorizon by determining the optimal production quantity in each period, and theoptimal inventory amount to carry to the next period after the sales in primary andsecondary markets. We term the optimal inventory amount to be carried to the nextperiod as \economic retention quantity". We model this problem as a nite horizonstochastic dynamic program. Our focus is to characterize the structure of the optimalpolicy and to analyze the system under dierent parameter settings. Conditioning on given parameter set, we establish lower and upper bounds on the optimal policyparameters. Furthermore, we provide computational tools to determine the optimalpolicy parameters. Results of the numerical analysis are used to provide furtherinsights into the problem from a managerial perspective.

This is a multi-essay dissertation in the area of dynamic models of the insurance markets. I study issues in insurance markets by examining individual behavior and industry performance in dynamic settings. My first essay studies household life insurance demand and saving decisions by applying a heterogeneous-agent life cycle model with wage shocks and mortality shocks. This essay proposes the most important determinants of household life insurance demand, and shows the joint decision of life insurance purchase between couples. My second essay focuses on the property-liability insurance market, and aims to study the impact of one catastrophe event on an insurer’s underwritings and capital raising strategy. The two-period cash flow model is built to also explore what kind of insurers can benefit from catastrophic risk underwritings. My third essay extends the second essay by incorporating a dynamic cash flow model with a series of loss shocks. I find the dynamic interaction between the insurer’s balance sheet and its capital rationing resulting from loss shocks. The model generates a non-cyclical behavior of output changes in the insurance market, and this suggests the current asymmetric, unpredictable and random underwriting cycles are temporary responses to loss shocks.

無 / Critical Chain Project Management (CCPM) has merged in last few years as a novel approach for managing projects. While there were many previous researches studied CCPM concerning with single project management, but CCPM multi project management was hardly paid attention, especially capacity-constraint buffer sizing approach. However, there were some research papers which examined and illustrated CCPM under multi-project environment; those papers assumed all the subprojects were identical. Despite the fact that such situation is impractical. The purpose of this dissertation is to compare Cut and paste method (C&PM) with Root square error method (RSEM) for applying in project buffer, feeding buffer and capacity-constraint buffer sizing and to change some subproject parameters which make an impact on the project schedule for multi-project scheduling. Keywords: Critical chain project management, Multi Project Scheduling, Buffer Management, Capacity constraint buffer, Buffer sizing method.

The thesis is mainly a study on the Flexible Print Circuit which was producing manufactured. The research investigates how the FPC operates based on related product capacity data in the conjunction of back end MPS system data of producing scheduling database. Due to system and relative data collocation, it helps a salesman to make a better judgment on the outcome of an order before making promises to customers. In addition, this paper is looking into how applying the related production management method increases the number of the entire production and improves the efficiency on the production line. Then it studies how using this method can temporarily meet the needs of customers¡¦ big orders & cut-in orders before promising customers the date of delivery. Regarding manufacturing procedure of FPC, the purpose for increasing actual output is achieving the maximum production capability and the best arranging procedure. All information was given by different groups of employees from FPC industry, including its Sales Department, Production Management Department, Procurement Department and Supply Department; it also derives from the interviews with station managers and high level managers. With situation simulation and case simulation will be revised on current product line¡¦s output and try to bring up production operation model of FPC Industry. Finally, changing production management and station order to achieve its maximum production on FPC.

We propose a prototype model of market dynamics in which all functional relationships are linear. We take into account three borders, defined by linear functions, which are intrinsic to the economic reasoning: non-negativity of prices; downward rigidity of capacity (depreciation) and a capacity constraint for the production decision. Given the linear specification, the borders are the only source for the emerging of cyclical and more complex dynamics. In particular, we discuss centre bifurcations, border collision bifurcations and degenerate flip bifurcations - dynamic phenomena the occurrence of which are intimately related to the existence of borders. / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

We explore the effects of Brexit on trade patterns and on the spatial distribution of industry between the United Kingdom and the European Union and within the EU. Our study adopts a new economic geography (NEG) perspective developing a linear model with three regions, the UK and two separated regions composing the EU. The 3-region framework and linear demands allow for different trade patterns. Two possible ante-Brexit situations are possible, depending on the interplay between local market size, local competition and trade costs: industrial agglomeration or dispersion. Considering a soft and a hard Brexit scenario, the ante-Brexit situation is altered substantially, depending on which scenario prevails. UK firms could move to the larger EU market, even in the peripheral region, reacting to the higher trade barriers, relocation representing a substitute for trade. Alternatively, some EU firms could move in the more isolated UK market finding shelter from the competition inside the EU. We also consider the post-Brexit scenario of deeper EU integration, leading to a weakening of trade links between the EU and the UK. Our analysis also reveals a highly complex bifurcation sequence leading to many instances of multistability, intricate basins of attraction and cyclical and chaotic dynamics. / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

本文利用連續Cournot 寡占模型分析垂直相關市場中，產能限制如何幫助垂直整合廠商提高對手成本，並檢視歐盟執委會非水平結合準則中對於此議題規範的妥適性。結果顯示，垂直整合廠商提高對手誘因與攫取市場分額無直接關係，且與無產能限制情況相比，在相當範圍內，垂直整合廠商反而偏好自己產能受到限制。當垂直整合廠商受到產能限制時，獨立上游競爭廠商將減少中間財生產，使得垂直整合廠商可以藉由少量中間財購買，大幅提高對手成本，增加利潤。 / This paper analyzes the impact of capacity constraint on vertically integrated firm and other independent downstream in a Cournot Duopoly market. The result shows that vertically integrated firm may prefer to be constrained in its capacity since it could raise rivals’ cost with fewer cost after supply shrink of other upstream suppliers. Aside from EC Guideline, 2004, the research proves no direct relevance between market share captures and raising rival’s cost of a vertically integrated firm. Vertically integrated firm with capacity constraint may as well further raise rival’s cost even such may reduce its market share or revenue as the tremendous reduction cost on strategic buying. Moreover, as the fringe downstream expands to three, the profit gap of vertically integrated firm between constrained and unconstrained capacity will be wider.

Cette thèse décrit de façon précise les éléments techniques et les fondements économiques qui permettent de caractériser la problématique de la contrainte de capacité ferroviaire dans son ensemble. Jusqu’à présent, la question de la contrainte de capacité ferroviaire a principalement été étudiée d’un point de vue ingénierie, dans un univers monopolistique où la répartition de la capacité et les ajustements en cas de conflit étaient gérés par des processus internes. Néanmoins, compte tenu d’une ouverture progressive à la concurrence du monde ferroviaire, analyser économiquement cette question devient un enjeu clé pour le gestionnaire d’infrastructure, dans un contexte de plus en plus régulé.Ce manuscrit aborde dans un premier temps, la définition de la contrainte de capacité selon la perspective de l’ingénieur, à travers la conception de l’horaire, un élément majeur de la rencontre entre l’offre et la demande pour les transports programmés. Une meilleure connaissance des méthodes de construction horaire a permis de mettre en évidence les arbitrages implicites entre la capacité offerte et la qualité de service en termes de fiabilité. La vision technique de l’ingénieur combinée à la vision économique développée dans les autres modes de transport, nous a permis d’élaborer dans un second temps, un modèle microéconomique du coût généralisé de l’usager, considérant les spécificités ferroviaires de la construction horaire. Cette modélisation a mis en évidence le double effet d’une fréquence ferroviaire supplémentaire, d’une part sur le coût de « deshorage » (effet Mohring) et d’autre part sur l’espérance du coût du retard, lié à un usage intensif du réseau. Une fois la fonction de coût généralisé spécifique au ferroviaire déterminée, nous avons construit un modèle d’équilibre offre-demande, en considérant le comportement des usagers ainsi que les coûts des opérateurs. Ce modèle décrit les interactions entre l’offre et la demande selon les différentes structures de marché. L’analyse développée démontre que sous certaines conditions, le régulateur peut être amené à valider une tarification de la contrainte de capacité, afin d’internaliser les effets externes générés et d’envoyer les bons signaux-prix aux agents économiques. Néanmoins, dans certains cas, une fréquence additionnelle génère une externalité positive (effet Mohring), justifiant ainsi une subvention pour intensifier l’usage de la ligne et non une tarification complémentaire. / This PhD dissertation addresses the foundations of a detailed characterisation of rail capacity constraints from an economic perspective.Traditionally, railway capacity has been studied from the standpoint of engineering in a monopolistic world where capacity choices were considered as an organisational issue and set out in internal procedures. However, there is now a growing interest in analysing this issue from an economic perspective, specially regarding the ongoing deregulation tendency.Firstly, the definition of railway capacity constraints is presented from an engineering perspective via timetable design, a key element in matching supply and demand for planned transport services. A better understanding of timetable construction methods led to highlighting the implicit trade-offs between the capacity supplied and service quality in terms of reliability in the current graphic timetable construction processes in European infrastructure managers. Secondly, this technical vision of the engineer is combined with the economic vision developed for other modes of transport. It allows us to formulate a microeconomic model of the consumer generalized cost function, specific to the railway services. This model highlights the dual effects for the users of a higher frequency of rail traffic. It impacts the expected scheduled delay cost (Mohring effect) on the one hand, and a congestion effect linked to the intensive use of the network on the other. Once the detailed generalised cost function for train users has been determined, we develop an equilibrium model, by considering users’ behavior, operators’ costs and by describing how supply and demand interact under different market conditions. We analyse the interactions between demand and supply and show that, under some conditions, it is optimal from a welfare point of view to charge the cost of capacity constraints in order to internalize the negative external effects generated, and send the right price signals to economic operators. Nevertheless, in certain cases, an additional frequency generates a positive externality (Mohring effect), thereby justifying a subsidy to encourage using the railway line rather than increases access charges.

本文將探討當一販售耐久財的獨佔廠商面臨到商品產量限制以及市場上存在著個人需求不確定性時的最適訂價模式。此外本文也透過分析不同時期消費者所面臨的每期使用價格變化來說明當消費者存在個人需求不確定性時，廠商於兩期使用價格的設定會出現異於Coasian耐久財模型的兩期使用價格設定。當商品效用在第二期出現壞結果時低於一定標準時，廠商兩期使用價格訂價模式將出現第一期使用價格下降而第二期使用價格反而上升的現象，甚至可能出現第二期使用價格高於第一期使用價格的現象。而這與Coasian耐久財模型所呈現的兩期使用價格訂價模式是大不相同。 我們發現當廠商採取非價格承諾的訂價策略且廠商產能處於一定的數值時，廠商採取讓消費者面臨限量風險的訂價策略可獲得較Coasian耐久財模型更高的利潤。由此可見產能限制將可使廠商在採取非價格承諾的訂價策略下仍能透過讓消費者面臨限量的風險來保有獨佔力並且賺取較高利潤。 / This paper will investigate the best pricing strategy for durable goods monopolist with capacity constraint and individual demand uncertainty. We also introduce the concept of “per-period usage price” and illustrate the difference between traditional Coasian durable goods pricing strategy and ours. When the product utility turns out to be a bad outcome and its value is lower than the certain standard, first period’s per-period usage price will decrease while second period’s per-period usage price will increase simultaneously. This consequence is totally different from Coasian durable goods model. When monopolist use non-commitment pricing strategy and face capacity constraint, monopolist will set the price for exerting the risk of rationing to consumers which will help monopolist gain higher profit than Coasian durable goods model. This shows that capacity constraint will help monopolist keep monopoly power and gain higher profit.