Over the last 10 years the South African fiscus has introduced numerous changes to the Income Tax Act (ITA) which affect the income tax implications of persons ceasing to be a resident of South Africa. The two main changes were: - The introduction of a world-wide basis of taxation for residents - The introduction of capital gains tax (CGT) as part of the ITA The aim of this treatise was to identify the income tax implications of persons ceasing to be a resident of South Africa. Resulting from this research, several issues in the ITA have been identified, and the two major ones are summarised below. Firstly, upon the emigration of the taxpayer, there is a deemed disposal of a taxpayer’s assets in terms of paragraph 12 of the Eighth Schedule. It is submitted that the resulting exit tax may be unconstitutional for individuals. It is recommended that South Africa should adopt the deferral method within its domestic legislation for individuals who are emigrating. The deferral method postpones the liability until the disposal of the asset. Secondly, on the subsequent disposal of assets by former residents where there was no exit charge in terms of the exemption under paragraph 12(2)(a)(i) of the Eighth Schedule. Depending on the specific double tax agreement (DTA) that has been entered into with the foreign country, taxpayers have been given vii the opportunity to minimise or eliminate the tax liability with regard to certain assets. This should be of concern from the point of view of the South African government. Further issues noted in this treatise were the following: - It is submitted that the term ‘place of effective management’ has been incorrectly interpreted by SARS in Interpretation Note 6. - It is further submitted that the interpretation by SARS of paragraph 2(2) of the Eighth Schedule is technically incorrect. The above issues that have been identified present opportunities to emigrants to take advantage of the current tax legislation. It is further recommended that taxpayers who are emigrating need to consider the South African domestic tax law implications, respective DTA’s, as well as the domestic tax laws of the other jurisdiction, not only on the date of emigration but also on the subsequent disposal of the respective assets.

Det finns många indikationer på att Sveriges bostadsmarknad fungerar dåligt och statistik från Boverket visar att många kommuner upplever ett bostadsunderskott. Samtidigt indikerar statistik från Statistiska centralbyrån att stora delar av Sveriges befintliga bostadsbestånd används ineffektivt. Bostadspriserna har de senaste decennierna ökat kraftigt och i kombination med att många hushåll bor länge i sina bostäder har stora latenta skatteskulder byggts upp runt om i Sveriges kommuner. En bidragande faktor som påverkar ett hushålls vilja att flytta är storleken på transaktionskostnaderna som uppkommer i samband med en fastighetsförsäljning. En stor del av dessa transaktionskostnader utgörs av kapitalvinstskatten som måste betalas när bostaden säljs med vinst. Syftet med studien är att öka förståelsen för den svenska bostadsmarknaden genom att kartlägga latent skatteskuld, flyttkostnader i procent av priset och bostadsrörligheten i Sveriges kommuner. Studien undersöker även om det finns ett samband mellan höga flyttkostnader och låg bostadsrörlighet. Studien har genomförts med hjälp av en kvantitativ metod där data från Statistiska centralbyrån, Skatteverket och Valueguard använts för att skapa en databas över Sveriges kommuner. Studiens resultat visar att de högsta latenta skatteskulderna återfinns i storstäderna Stockholm, Göteborg och Malmö medan kommunerna med högst flyttkostnad i procent av priset för småhusbeståndet är Habo, Åre och Härjedalen. Kommunerna Orsa, Grästorp och Mullsjö har de högsta flyttkostnaderna i procent av priset vad gäller bostadsrättsbeståndet. Störst andel underutnyttjat småhusbestånd finns i kommunerna Malung-Sälen, Härjedalen och Åre där nästan vartannat småhus står tomt medan kommunerna med störst andel underutnyttjat bostadsrättsbestånd är Nordanstig, Berg och Åre. Studien kan inte bevisa att det finns ett positivt samband mellan höga flyttkostnader och låg rörlighet på bostadsmarknaden. / There are many indications that the Swedish housing market is functioning inefficiently, and statistics from the Swedish National Board of Housing, Building and Planning show that many municipalities are experiencing a housing deficit. Simultaneously, statistics from Statistics Sweden indicate that large parts of Sweden's existing housing stock are underutilized. Seeing as housing prices have steadily increased during the last decades, combined with the fact that many households live in their houses for many years, a large dormant tax debt has been built up in the Swedish municipalities. One factor affecting the household’s willingness to move is the size of the transaction costs generated by the sale of the property. A large part of the transaction costs includes the capital gains tax if the residence is sold at a profit.  The purpose of this study is to increase the knowledge of the Swedish housing market by mapping the dormant tax debt, moving costs as a percentage of the price and residential mobility in the Swedish municipalities. The study thus examines whether there is a relationship between high moving costs and low residential mobility. The study applies a quantitative approach where data from Statistics Sweden, The Swedish Tax Agency and Valueguard are used to create a dataset of the Swedish municipalities. The results of the study show that the highest dormant tax debt is found in the major cities Stockholm, Gothenburg, and Malmö, while the municipalities with the highest moving costs as a percentage of the price of the single-family houses are found in Habo, Åre and Härjedalen. The municipalities of Orsa, Grästorp and Mullsjö show the highest moving costs as a percentage of the price for the condominium housing stock. The largest proportion of underutilized single-family houses is found in the municipalities Malung-Sälen, Härjedalen and Åre, where half of the single-family houses were empty, while the municipalities with the most underutilized condominium housing stock are Nordanstig, Berg and Åre. The study could however not show that there is a positive relationship between high moving costs and low mobility in the housing market.

From time to time the court delivers a judgment that has a ripple effect beyond what was expected, resulting in estate planners reconsidering their planning strategies. Such a judgment was the judgment delivered by the Supreme Court of Appeal (SCA) in the case of the Commissioner for the South African Revenue Services v Brummeria Renaissance 2007 6 SA 601 (SCA) (Brummeria case). In this case the interest-free loan and the right to use loan capital free of any interest obligation were under scrutiny. The SCA had to rule on whether or not this right had a determinable value and whether or not this value could be taxable in the hands of the borrower. The SCA ruled that the right under an interest-free loan should be included in the gross income of the borrower. Since estate planning often involves the use of an interest-free loan, as estate planning tool, to remove a growth asset from the estate of a planner, it could not be generally accepted any more that the granting of such loan would not have any tax implications. Although the interest-free loans used in the Brummeria case, did not relate to an estate planning exercise, the ruling resulted in much speculation regarding the future of the interest-free loan as estate planning tool. SARS tried to ease the uncertainty by issuing Interpretation Note 58, but there is still uncertainty to some extent. The focus of this mini-dissertation is to explain when and to what extend the provisions of the Income Tax Act 58 of 1962 (ITA) as well as the Estate Duty Act 45 of 1955 (EDA) will apply to the granting of an interest-free loan as part of an estate planning exercise. The provisions of the gross income definition, sections 7 and 64E, the provisions of donations tax as well as paragraph 12(5) and 12A of the Eighth Schedule to the ITA, were explored. Sections 3(3) and 3(5) of the EDA are discussed with the use of these loans for estate planning in mind. The question whether or not the interest-free loan is still a useful estate planning tool is also answered. / LLM (Estate Law), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2015

From time to time the court delivers a judgment that has a ripple effect beyond what was expected, resulting in estate planners reconsidering their planning strategies. Such a judgment was the judgment delivered by the Supreme Court of Appeal (SCA) in the case of the Commissioner for the South African Revenue Services v Brummeria Renaissance 2007 6 SA 601 (SCA) (Brummeria case). In this case the interest-free loan and the right to use loan capital free of any interest obligation were under scrutiny. The SCA had to rule on whether or not this right had a determinable value and whether or not this value could be taxable in the hands of the borrower. The SCA ruled that the right under an interest-free loan should be included in the gross income of the borrower. Since estate planning often involves the use of an interest-free loan, as estate planning tool, to remove a growth asset from the estate of a planner, it could not be generally accepted any more that the granting of such loan would not have any tax implications. Although the interest-free loans used in the Brummeria case, did not relate to an estate planning exercise, the ruling resulted in much speculation regarding the future of the interest-free loan as estate planning tool. SARS tried to ease the uncertainty by issuing Interpretation Note 58, but there is still uncertainty to some extent. The focus of this mini-dissertation is to explain when and to what extend the provisions of the Income Tax Act 58 of 1962 (ITA) as well as the Estate Duty Act 45 of 1955 (EDA) will apply to the granting of an interest-free loan as part of an estate planning exercise. The provisions of the gross income definition, sections 7 and 64E, the provisions of donations tax as well as paragraph 12(5) and 12A of the Eighth Schedule to the ITA, were explored. Sections 3(3) and 3(5) of the EDA are discussed with the use of these loans for estate planning in mind. The question whether or not the interest-free loan is still a useful estate planning tool is also answered. / LLM (Estate Law), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2015

Death and taxes are unavoidable. In terms of the current legislation both estate duty and capital gains tax (hereinafter referred to as 'CGT') are levied upon death. The South African National Treasury is reconsidering taxes on death as estate duty contributes minuscule revenue, and its administration is cumbersome. Worldwide taxation is based on either source or residence. Because of the R3 500 000 exemption from estate duty, only wealthy individuals are generally subject to estate duty. Wealthy individuals make use of the annual R4 000 000 foreign investment capital allowance by owning offshore property. The aim of this study is to document how death taxes are currently levied on an estate which holds offshore property, given the perception that foreign property is exempt from death duties, and also to consider the impact on taxes payable on offshore property at death if estate duty were to be abolished. These objectives cannot be achieved without a thorough understanding of the development and future of estate duty, the impact of CGT on death, how selected foreign countries levy taxes upon death, and how residents of South Africa are taxed on property situated within foreign countries. When CGT was introduced in 2001 the estate duty rate was reduced and it is likely that, if estate duty is repealed, the rate of CGT will be increased. In South Africa, residents are taxed on worldwide income and capital gains. The international perspective is that the foreign country has the sovereignty to levy taxes on a person who owns property situated within its boundaries. An estate which holds offshore property may also be subject to estate duty in terms of the tax law of that country which results in double taxation in the hands of the deceased estate. South Africa has concluded international agreements with a number of foreign countries through double tax agreements and estate tax treaties to prevent double taxation. In terms of the Estate Duty Act, and in some of the treaties, a rebate is allowed in respect of foreign estate taxes paid. However, if estate duty is abolished, the deceased estate may be liable for estate tax in the foreign country where the assets are situated and the deceased estate may not qualify for any rebate in South Africa in respect of foreign taxes paid. Hence, the abolition may have detrimental consequences on the liquidity requirements, and on the heirs, in cases where offshore property is involved. It is vital that proper estate and tax planning advice is given before a resident acquires offshore property as the tax implications may be enormous. The current impact of estate duty and CGT on a resident who owns offshore assets is that the said taxes will be levied either here in South Africa or in the foreign country. The effect of capital transfer tax on a resident with an offshore asset can never be underestimated. / Thesis (M.Com. (Tax))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2011.

Death and taxes are unavoidable. In terms of the current legislation both estate duty and capital gains tax (hereinafter referred to as 'CGT') are levied upon death. The South African National Treasury is reconsidering taxes on death as estate duty contributes minuscule revenue, and its administration is cumbersome. Worldwide taxation is based on either source or residence. Because of the R3 500 000 exemption from estate duty, only wealthy individuals are generally subject to estate duty. Wealthy individuals make use of the annual R4 000 000 foreign investment capital allowance by owning offshore property. The aim of this study is to document how death taxes are currently levied on an estate which holds offshore property, given the perception that foreign property is exempt from death duties, and also to consider the impact on taxes payable on offshore property at death if estate duty were to be abolished. These objectives cannot be achieved without a thorough understanding of the development and future of estate duty, the impact of CGT on death, how selected foreign countries levy taxes upon death, and how residents of South Africa are taxed on property situated within foreign countries. When CGT was introduced in 2001 the estate duty rate was reduced and it is likely that, if estate duty is repealed, the rate of CGT will be increased. In South Africa, residents are taxed on worldwide income and capital gains. The international perspective is that the foreign country has the sovereignty to levy taxes on a person who owns property situated within its boundaries. An estate which holds offshore property may also be subject to estate duty in terms of the tax law of that country which results in double taxation in the hands of the deceased estate. South Africa has concluded international agreements with a number of foreign countries through double tax agreements and estate tax treaties to prevent double taxation. In terms of the Estate Duty Act, and in some of the treaties, a rebate is allowed in respect of foreign estate taxes paid. However, if estate duty is abolished, the deceased estate may be liable for estate tax in the foreign country where the assets are situated and the deceased estate may not qualify for any rebate in South Africa in respect of foreign taxes paid. Hence, the abolition may have detrimental consequences on the liquidity requirements, and on the heirs, in cases where offshore property is involved. It is vital that proper estate and tax planning advice is given before a resident acquires offshore property as the tax implications may be enormous. The current impact of estate duty and CGT on a resident who owns offshore assets is that the said taxes will be levied either here in South Africa or in the foreign country. The effect of capital transfer tax on a resident with an offshore asset can never be underestimated. / Thesis (M.Com. (Tax))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2011.

The thesis examined the current system of the taxation of wealth in South Africa with an emphasis on the taxes that apply upon the death of the taxpayer. The focus of the research was on the problems associated with estate duty, namely the issue of double taxation; the alleged cumbersome administration of the tax and the limited revenue that it brings in; it’s questionable efficacy due to extensive estate planning on the part of taxpayers while they are still alive and its lack of uniformity with other wealth taxes. An interpretative research approach was followed which involved analysing documentary data. The conclusions that were reached were that estate duty as a wealth tax in South Africa has been rendered ineffective due to the inherent problems associated with its application, namely the fact that double taxation exists, not only in the context of capital gains tax, but also in that taxpayers resent being taxed upon death after having paid income tax during their lives. The perceived unfairness that is associated with estate duty has caused the creation of a secondary industry of estate planning, with the aim of minimising estate duty, which industry has resulted in the ineffectiveness of estate duty and its limited revenue. No evidence could be found regarding the Treasury’s assertion that estate duty is a cumbersome tax to administer. The final conclusion reached was that the current estate duty regime needs to be overhauled preferably by extending the current system of capital gains tax and abolishing estate duty, with due consideration being given to the consequences associated therewith.

The paper analyses whether various aspects of a country's tax system have a positive or negative influence on individuals' attitudes towards the future. These attitudes are measured by an analysis of Google search queries derived from Google Trends which allow constructing an online futureorientation index for a sample of 58 countries. There results of this analysis indicate that capital gains taxes and value added taxes discourage future-oriented behaviour. Also, high personal income tax rates at the lowest income brackets discourage, whereas - surprisingly - the top marginal rates could positively influence an individual's future orientation. The paper contributes to existing research in three ways: First, it expands the existing tax literature by providing evidence that taxes can influence very fundamental personal values, such as individuals' general attitudes towards their future. Second, it contributes to a vast body of cross-cultural studies on future orientation by introducing tax law. Third, by using Internet search patterns the paper introduces these large, automatically gathered data sets into scientific tax research, thereby opening the possibility for further research opportunities. (author's abstract) / Series: WU International Taxation Research Paper Series

There has been a continuous increase in the popularity of interactive gambling in South Africa due to the wide range of channels in which the public can now quickly and easily access gambling opportunities. Although there is uncertainty related to whether or not interactive gambling is considered to be legal in South Africa, the total value of income earned from interactive gambling by South African residents is conservatively estimated to be between R4 billion and R10 billion per year. Unfortunately, due to the fact that interactive gambling does not have national boundaries, it is difficult to determine the true worth of the industry. There appears to be no academic research which has examined whether income received from interactive gambling qualifies to be taxed in terms of the Income Tax Act 58 of 1962. This study will contribute to an academic understanding of the interactive gambling industry in South Africa and an understanding of the South African Revenue Service’s (SARS’s) policies and practices relating to the taxation of income earned from interactive gambling by resident South African individuals. The purpose of this study was to critically analyse whether income earned from interactive gambling by resident South African individuals should be taxed by SARS. This study also investigated which laws currently regulate the interactive gambling industry within South Africa and how the regulation and taxation of interactive gambling in South Africa compares to that of other developing and developed countries. This study also investigated the legality and estimated value of interactive gambling income earned in South Africa by resident South African individuals. This study concluded that income earned from interactive gambling should be subject to either normal income tax or to capital gains tax (CGT), depending on the intention of the taxpayer. This study noted that enforcing regular reporting from local licensed interactive gambling service providers would be the best method of effectively collecting tax that is owed by interactive gamblers on income generated from this form of gambling in South Africa. This study further concluded that the most appropriate regulatory model to be applied in South Africa would be a protectionist model. This model protects the residents of a country by having a regulated interactive gambling industry that is protected from outside intruders. A regulated industry will result in economic benefits such as taxation, investment and employment within South Africa. The difficulties associated with electronic-commerce could be overcome through regulation of the industry which would be beneficial to SARS. AFRIKAANS : Inter-aktiewe dobbel onder die Suid-Afrikaanse publiek is baie populêr en het ‘n voortgesette toename vanweë die beskikbaarheid en toeganklikheid wat deur tegnologie daargestel word. Alhoewel daar onsekerheid is aangaande of inter-aktiewe dobbel wettig is al dan nie, word die inkomste wat deur Suid Afrikaanse inwoners verdien word konserwatief geraam en beloop tussen R4 en R10 biljoen per jaar. Aangesien die toeganklikheid wat deur die internet gebied word nie net tot Suid-Afrika beperk is nie, maar wêreldwyd strek, is dit feitlik onmoonlik om die waarde van die industrie te bepaal. Daar is tot op hede geen akademiese navorsing gedoen om te bepaal of inkomste verdien uit inter-aktiewe dobbel belasbaar is ingevolge die Inkomstebelastingwet 58 van 1962. Hierdie studie sal bydra tot ‘n akademiese begrip van SARS se beleid en die toepassing daarvan op inkomste verdien uit inter-aktiewe dobbel deur Suid-Afrikaanse individue. Dus was die doel van hierdie navorsingstudie om te bepaal of inkomste verdien uit interaktiewe dobbel deur ‘n Suid Afrikaanse individu deur SARS belasbaar is of nie en die aspekte krities te analiseer. Hierdie studie ondersoek ook die wette wat huidiglik die belasbaarheid van inkomste uit inter-aktiewe dobbel in Suid Afrika reguleer asook hoe die regulasies vergelyk met die van ander ontwikkelende en onwikkelde lande. Verder word ondersoek ingestel om die wettigheid van inter-aktiewe dobbel en die waarde daarvan te bepaal. Die gevolgtrekking is dat inkomste verdien uit inter-aktiewe dobbel onderhewig moet wees aan of normale belasting of kapitaalwinsbelasting. Die navorsing en studie toon ook dat daar gelisensieerde inter-aktiewe dobbel diensverskaffers moet wees wat dan die invordering van die inkomste uit hierdie tipe dobbel kan beheer en dat inter-aktiewe dobbelaars wel die nodige belasting oorbetaal uit inkomste verdien in Suid-Afrika op hierdie manier. Ter afsluiting van die navorsing word daar ‘n model voorgestel wat toegepas moet word in Suid-Afrika, eerstens om die inwoners van die land te beskerm deur ‘n goed-gereguleerde inter-aktiewe dobbel stelsel daar te stel en tweedens moet daar ook die nodige beskerming verleen word teen buitelandse indringers. ‘n Goed gereguleerde model vir die industrie sal voordelig wees vir Suid Afrika deurdat die belasbaarheid van die inter-aktiewe dobbelinkomste ‘n inspuiting vir die ekonomie kan wees, sowel as werkskeppingvoordele bied. Wetstoepassing en regulering van die industrie sal ook voordelig wees vir SARS aangesien die probleme wat nou geassosieer word met elektroniese-handel voorkom en tot die minimum beperk kan word. / Dissertation (MCom)--University of Pretoria, 2010. / Taxation / unrestricted

本研究第一部份為確定性的資產訂價模型，探討證券交易所得稅與證券交易稅對股票價格的影響。如同資產價格方程式，其均衡價格為未來各期股利之貼現值的總和。所不同的是一般資產價格方程式之貼現率即為市場利率，但本研究特別引進資產存量動態調整方程式與政府預算限制式，說明除了市場利率以外，強調證券交易所得稅、證券交易稅與代表性個人之週轉率均為影響貼現率的主要因素。由於模型描述代表性個人具有遠瞻(forward-looking)的特性，所以當期暫時性的稅率變動不會影響股票價格，會影響股票價格的只有未來的租稅政策。另外，本研究亦得到與李嘉圖定理相似的中立性假說：只要租稅現值保持固定不變，即使資本利得稅與證券交易稅如何調整與變動，都不會影響其均衡價格。 為了瞭解股票週轉率的函數型態。假設其為下一期股票報酬率與租稅的函數，以台灣地區1982年1月至2001年1月的月資料，使用兩階段的研究方法分別探討租稅對股票報酬率與週轉率的影響，目的是確認：租稅除了會直接的影響股票價格外，是否會透過週轉率而間接的影響股票價格。因此本研究第二部份摒除週轉率與政府政策為外生的假設，另以實證分析租稅對股票報酬率與週轉率的影響，以補基本理論模型之不足，並進行有趣議題之分析。 首先由Ganger因果關係檢定得知：週轉率領先於政府訂定的證券交易稅稅率，亦即週轉率過去的落遲項會影響到當期的證券交易稅稅率；且由相關係數得知二者呈正相關。故政府訂定的證券交易稅稅率視過去的週轉率而定，過去的週轉率愈高，政府當期訂定的證券交易稅稅率愈高，以企圖抑制股市的不健全發展。再者，由於台灣股票報酬率的時間序列資料具有自我迴歸條件非均齊變異數(autoregressive condition heteroskedasticity，簡稱ARCH)的現象，故異於其他相關研究的實證方法，另經由比較各種ARCH族模型的實證結果，選取出一套考慮風險貼水(risk premium)之最佳配適的兩階段ARCH(1)-M模型進行實證分析。 實證結果顯示：任何一個ARCH(1)-M的模型，皆存在顯著的風險貼水效果。而預期未來的與當期的證券交易稅對當期的股票報酬率均為直接的負面影響，但以前者影響較為顯著，後者的影響則視顯著水準而定，因此政府調降或調高當期的證券交易稅稅率，與股市之榮枯並無確定性的直接關係，此結果與一般學者的觀點不謀而合。此外，當期的週轉率租稅彈性為-0.0646，其值顯著為負，且絕對值小於一，表示缺乏彈性，雖然租稅會間接地透過週轉率影響股票價格，但影響並不大，而且政府若鑒於過去的週轉率太高，要以租稅抑制當期的股市投機風氣，其成效亦不彰。至於證券交易所得稅因宣告(或施行)的期間極為短暫，故對當期的股票報酬率影響不顯著。換言之，風險趨避程度、證券交易稅、預期報酬率、週轉率與股票價格之間具有相互連動的關係。是故，證券交易稅對股票價格的影響，視風險趨避程度、證券交易稅稅率、週轉率之租稅彈性與週轉率之預期報酬彈性而定。 除此以外，本研究第三部份亦考慮政策的不確定性與政策的變動以建立不確定性的資產訂價模型，模擬分析結果顯示：若原先政府施行的租稅過程愈具持續性，則一旦政府的租稅政策瞬間改變時，投資人愈無法將股票價格-股利比值對租稅的反應，事先地考慮於股票投資的決策當中，所以租稅政策衝擊的反應較大。簡言之，投資人預期的稅率與實際施行的新稅率愈相近時，租稅政策衝擊的反應最小。因此第三部份的結果亦與第一部份的基本數學模型(認為當期暫時性之稅率變動不會影響當期的股票價格)，以及第二部份的實證結果(發現當期證券交易稅稅率變動與當期股市之榮枯並無確定性之關係)相一致。 第一章 緒論……………………………………………………………………001 1.1 研究動機與目的………………………………………………………001 1.2 研究方法………………………………………………………………004 1.3 研究結構………………………………………………………………011 第二章 我國證券交易課稅制度沿革…………………………………………014 2.1 我國證券交易所得稅制度沿革………………………………………014 2.2 我國證券交易稅制度沿革……………………………………………021 2.3 各國證券交易課稅制度比較…………………………………………024 第三章 證券交易課稅的文獻探討……………………………………………031 3.1 證券交易所得稅的文獻探討…………………………………………031 3.1.1 關於證券市場的文獻探討……………………………………031 3.1.2 關於投資及儲蓄的文獻探討…………………………………040 3.1.3 關於經濟效益的文獻探討……………………………………042 3.1.4 關於稅制及稅收的文獻探討…………………………………046 3.2 證券交易稅的文獻探討………………………………………………050 3.2.1 國外文獻探討…………………………………………………050 3.2.2 國內文獻探討…………………………………………………053 第四章 確定性的資產訂價模型……………………………………………… 058 4.1 基本理論模型…………………………………………………………058 4.2 租稅效果………………………………………………………………064 4.3 中立性的假說…………………………………………………………069 第五章 台灣實證研究—資料處理與分析…………………………………… 073 5.1 資料來源與說明………………………………………………………074 5.2 檢定……………………………………………………………………076 5.2.1 單根檢定—ADF 檢定…………………………………………076 5.2.2 常態分配檢定…………………………………………………080 5.2.3 自我相關檢定—Ljung-Box Q(L-B Q)檢定…………………081 5.2.4 序列相關 LM 檢定……………………………………………082 5.2.5 ARCH LM 檢定…………………………………………………082 5.2.6 Granger 因果關係檢定………………………………………086 5.2.7 當期股票報酬率與未來各期證券交易稅稅率的相關係數…093 第六章 台灣實證研究—兩階段 ARCH 族實證模型………………………… 095 6.1 基本條件平均數方程式的設定與分析………………………………095 6.1.1 傳統自我迴歸模型……………………………………………095 6.1.2 自我迴歸模型的殘差分析……………………………………096 6.2 條件變異數方程式的設定……………………………………………101 6.2.1 ARCH 模型……………………………………………………102 6.2.2 ARCH-M 模型…………………………………………………103 6.3 估計方法與檢定………………………………………………………105 6.4 第一階段之股票報酬率的 ARCH 族模型估計與分析………………106 6.4.1 實證模型………………………………………………………106 6.4.2 實證結果與分析………………………………………………113 6.5 兩階段模型的估計與分析……………………………………………114 6.5.1 實證模型………………………………………………………114 6.5.2 實證結果與分析………………………………………………119 第七章 不確定性的資產訂價模型…………………………………………… 130 7.1 不確定性的租稅政策與政策變動……………………………………130 7.2 模型的模擬與分析……………………………………………………136 第八章 結論與未來的研究方向………………………………………………151 8.1 結論……………………………………………………………………151 8.2 未來的研究方向………………………………………………………155 附錄A 股票價格函數滿足終極條件的證明…………………………………158 附錄 B 股票價格函數為單一固定點的證明…………………………………160 參考文獻…………………………………………………………………………163 / This paper works out the effect of capital gains tax and stock transaction tax on share prices. In the generality of cases, the equilibrium share price is shown to equal the discounted sum of future dividends. In this paper, we emphasize that tax policy is a driving force in determining the discount rate and market turnover rate also plays an important role in determining the effects of policy. We show that temporary changes in policy have little effect on current stock price; only perceived policy in the future has price effect. We also show that a permanent shift in tax policy exerts only level effect, but no growth effect, on stock price. Using monthly data from Taiwan, our empirical results indicate that changes in stock turnover rate often leads changes in transaction tax, and both are positively correlated. This result implies that government policy often reacts to market volatility instead of the other way around. Since the data exhibit autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity, we employ a two stage ARCH(1)-M model as our empirical strategy. Our results show that the price effect of transaction tax is significant, with the expected change in future tax especially so. The results also indicate that expected stock returns have positive and important effects on market turnover rate. Overall, the policy effect on stock price depends on the tax rate, the degree of risk aversion, sensitivity of turnover rate to policy and the expected stock return. The analysis so far assumes that the tax policy is certain, when in fact it is hardly the case. The 1989 fiasco and the recent flip-flop of the government are vivid testimonies of the volatile nature of the government policy. The third part extends the model to a stochastic environment and examines the consequences when a long-standing unequivocal tax policy suddenly and unexpectedly shifts to a stochastic regime. This type of regime shift seems to characterize the recent experience in Taiwan. Our results show that the shape of the pricing function under stochastic regimes depend on the persistence of the tax process. For tax rates that are lower than the unconditional mean of the process, the price is lower than the certainty case because the expected tax rate is higher over this interval. As the tax process becomes more persistent, the expected duration of the tax rate lengthens and the pricing function becomes negatively sloped. Notice that the slope of the pricing function (i.e., the tax elasticity of the price-dividend ratio) is flatter than the certainty case because in a stochastic regime consumers always take into account the possibility of tax changes, no matter how small the probability is.