Made available in DSpace on 2016-03-15T19:32:21Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Ligia Ferraci.pdf: 1333034 bytes, checksum: 7872150631d4eb40ece4b912f3149334 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010-08-11 / Fundo Mackenzie de Pesquisa / The capital market in Brazil has experienced, especially from the year 2003 to 2009,several changes and significant growth due to the global economic and financial environment as well as internal factors highlighting the regulatory improvements, development and credibility. As a result of this growth, we have observed a large number of companies that became public especially from 2006 on. The stock price behavior during this period has showed significant short-term positive returns, even when compared to Ibovespa index rates (Sao Paulo s Stock Exchange).Some potential explanations for such events may be the stock issue below the correct price (underpricing), informational asymmetry, the winner's curse (Rock ,1986) or other market anomalies discussed in the financial theory. This research focused the study in two possible factors: (1) issue below the correct price, known in financial literature for underpricing, and (2) the risk and return function as explanatory for stock returns in IPO issued from 1st, 30.th, 60.th, 90.th and 180.th days considering the sample of companies which registered initial public offerings (IPO) from 2003 until December 2009 listed on the Bovespa and the Securities Commission (CVM) and which had daily close available prices. The objective for this study was to verify the existence of underpricing in the IPO process and whether the observed abnormal returns can be explained by the risk and return function. As for the conclusion, in line with results of other recent researches for Brazilian stock market, were observed positive returns in the short term and negative returns for long term concluding that underpricing is a practice adopted in IPO s in Brazil as well as in other developed capital markets. / O mercado de capitais no Brasil experimentou,especialmente entre os anos de 2003 a 2009,muitas mudanças e crescimento acentuado em razão do ambiente econômico-financeiro mundial, bem como de fatores internos de ordem regulatória que propiciaram seu amadurecimento, desenvolvimento e credibilidade.Como consequência deste crescimento,observou-se um grande número de empresas que abriram seu capital mais acentuadamente a partir do ano de 2006.O retorno das ações durante esta periodo mostrou valores significativos a curto prazo, mesmo se comparados aos índices médios de mercado da Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo-Bovespa. Algumas explicações possíveis para tais eventos podem ser o lançamento abaixo do preço correto (underpricing), assimetria informacional, maldição do vencedor (winner s curse), anomalias de mercado, etc. Esta pesquisa centralizou o foco de estudo em dois possíveis fatores: (1) lançamento abaixo do preço correto, denominado na literatura financeira de underpricing, e (2) a relação entre risco e retorno como explicativa para retornos das ações lançadas em IPO a partir do 1.º, 30.º, 60.º, 90.º e 180.º dias da emissão considerando a amostra das empresas que registraram ofertas iniciais (IPO) a partir de 2003 até dezembro de 2009 listadas na Bovespa e na Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (CVM) que possuíam cotações diárias de fechamento disponíveis.O objetivo do trabalho foi verificar a existência underpricing no processo de abertura de capital e se os retornos anormais verificados podem ser explicados pela relação risco e retorno.A título de conclusão e em consonância com resultados de outras pesquisas recentes para o mercado brasileiro, foram encontrados retornos positivos no curto prazo e negativos no longo prazo concluindo-se que o underpricing é uma prática adotada nos processos de IPO no Brasil assim como ocorre em outros mercados de capitais desenvolvidos.

Essa dissertação tem como objeto de estudo a valorização imobiliária pela prática dos agentes sociais em São Paulo da concepção do produto imobiliário à construção e apropriação com atenção aos conflitos que daí emergem. Procuramos apresentar alguns movimentos recentes na atividade imobiliária brasileira, mais especialmente em São Paulo, através da transformação das grandes empresas em sociedades por ação, o processo incipiente de centralização de capitais, a crescente participação de capital financeiro mundializado e a recomposição do sistema de crédito imobiliário no Brasil. Nesse contexto, a produção crescente de condomínios verticais padronizados, voltados para consumidores por segmento de renda, implica a reestruturação sócio-espacial aonde chega e, em última instância, a reestruturação da cidade. A produção capitalista do espaço historicamente baseou-se na prática social da propriedade privada da terra e construção na forma-canteiro, tais fundamentos implicam um processo de valorização particular. A construção se dá pela divisão manufatureira do trabalho que pressupõe a concepção anterior do produto fora do canteiro. Ao mesmo tempo, no âmbito urbano, a elevação dos preços de imóveis e terrenos aparece coordenando a (re)organização sócio-espacial pela distribuição de usos e determinação de quem pode se apropriar de que espaço e em que momento. Trata-se do fetichismo da forma-mercadoria exposto por Marx, mas de uma mercadoria especial o espaço como totalidade em fragmentos, propriedade imobiliária, meio de hierarquizar e segregar que toma forma de realidade autônoma (na aparência) da coisa do dinheiro. Hoje, cabe entendermos a origem da nuvem de capital fictício que paira sobre o mundo e parece se auto-alimentar como prática social no cotidiano do escritório, do canteiro de obras, da vida em mais um condomínio. Na era do capital fictício, a produção e apropriação da cidade, tendo como finalidade principal a valorização do capital, toma forma cada vez mais social ao se constituir na ação do conjunto da sociedade e, ao mesmo tempo, anti-social ao rebaixar e quase eliminar do horizonte a possibilidade da construção (como obra) e da fruição da cidade pelos seus habitantes. / The object of study of this dissertation is the real estate appreciation through the practices of the social agents in Sao Paulo from the concept of real estate product to construction and appropriation focusing on the conflicts that emerge from there. We tried to present some recent movements in the Brazilian real estate business, more specifically in Sao Paulo, through the large companies becoming stock corporations, the incipient process of the centralization of capitals, the increasing participation of the globalized financial capital, and the rearrangement of the real estate credit system in Brazil. In this context, the increasing production of standardized apartment building developments, targeted at consumers by income segment, implies the socio-spatial restructuring where it arrives, and, in last instance, the restructuring of the city. The capitalist production of space has historically been based on the social practice of the private property of land and the construction in the worksite-form, and these principles imply a unique process of appreciation. The construction happens by means of the manufacturing division of labor, which presupposes the prior concept of the product outside the worksite. At the same time, in the urban sphere, the rising prices of the real estates and pieces of land appear coordinating the socio-spatial (re)organization through the distribution of uses and the determination of the ones who can appropriate what space and at what moment. This is the fetishism in commodity-form as explained by Marx, but of a special commodity the space as totality in fragments, real estate property, a means of hierarchizing and segregating which takes on the shape of autonomous reality (in the appearance) of money. Today, it is important that we understand the origin of the cloud of fictitious capital which hangs over the world and seems to self-feed as a social practice in the daily life of the office, of the worksite, of another development. In the era of fictitious capital, the production and appropriation of the city with the main objective of capital appreciation, becomes more and more social when it constitutes itself in the action of the whole of society and, at the same time, more anti-social when it reduces and almost eliminates of the horizon the possibility of the construction (as work) and the fruition of the city by its inhabitants.

Este trabalho investiga a relação entre as revisões das projeções de lucro por ação e do seu preço-alvo, assim como das recomendações feitas pelos analistas de investimentos, especificamente os de ações, e o comportamento dos gestores de fundos de investimento. Para o desenvolvimento dessa pesquisa, foi feita uma revisão bibliográfica das principais teorias que tratam da ideia de investimento, assim como de questões sobre a gestão dos fundos e discussões acerca dos motivos e impactos das informações emitidas pelos analistas. Analisando uma amostra que compreende a composição trimestral da carteira dos fundos de investimento classificados na categoria ações da ANBIMA, entre o terceiro trimestre de 2009 e o primeiro trimestre de 2014, a hipótese principal testada é a de que os gestores seguem as informações emitidas pelos analistas. Para tal análise foi aplicado um modelo econométrico, com o uso de dados em painel, para avaliar como as revisões das recomendações e das projeções de lucro por ação e do retorno implícito, sendo essse calculado a partir do preço-alvo estimado pelos analistas, influenciam a variação da participação trimestral dos ativos nas carteiras dos fundos de investimentos. Os resultados apontam que, na maior parte dos tipos de fundos, os gestores tendem a seguir mais as revisões de recomendações do que as outras, sendo mais presente tal comportamento quando se tem um downgrade das revisões, embora aparente que em tipos específicos, a revisão do lucro por ação é a que influencia em maior intensidade o comportamento dos gestores. Ainda mais, gestores ativos, especificamente do tipo de fundo IBrX tendem a seguir tais recomendações de modo mais intenso que os gestores passivos de tal tipo. Nota-se também que a discordância das opinões dos analistas aparenta influenciar negativamente o comportamento dos gestores, ou seja, quanto mais discordância, menos o gestor tende a seguir o consenso das revisões, especificamente as de lucro por ação e do retorno implícito. Por fim, embora os gestores tendam a seguir mais as revisões de recomendações do que as das projeções de lucro por ação e retorno implícito, são as revisões das projeções, quando seguidas, que aparentam gerar retornos positivos para os trades dos gestores. / This work assesses the relation between the revisions of the forecasts of earning per share and target price, as well as the recommendations made by the investments analysts, specifically the stocks analysts, and the trades of the manager of investment funds. To do so was done a literature review which approached the main theories of investment, even as, some aspects of the funds management and discussions about the reasons and impacts of the information issued by the analysts. Assessing one sample, which involves the quarterly composition of the portfolio of the investment funds classified in the category stocks, according ANBIMA, between the third quarter of 2009 and the first quarter of 2014, the main hypothesis tested is that the funds managers follow the information issued by the analysts. For this purpose, an econometric model using panel data was applied to assess how the revisions of the recommendations and the projections of earning per share and the implied returns, being this calculated from the target price estimated by the analysts, influence the variation of the participation of assets in the portfolio of the investiments funds between the quarters. The results show that, in the most part of kinds of funds, the managers tend to follow more the recommendations, being more present this behavior when there is a downgrade, although appears that in some kinds, the earning per share revision is that which influence with more intensity the manager\'s behavior. Moreover, active managers, specifically of IBrX funds, tend to follow the recommendation revisions with more intensity than the passive managers of this kind of fund. It\'s observable that the disagreement of opinions between analysts seems to influence negatively the managers\' behavior, this is, more disagreement, less the manager tends to follow the consensus of the revisions, specifically the earning per share and implied return revision. Lastly, although the managers tend to follow more the recommendation revisions than the projections of earning per share and the implied return, are the revisions of the projections, when followed, that appear to generate positive returns to the managers\' trades.

Esse estudo visa testar a eficiência informacional dos mercados acionários brasileiro e mexicano, através do desenvolvimento de um estudo de eventos. Para viabilização do estudo, o mercado brasileiro será representado pela BOVESPA - Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo e o mercado mexicano pela BMV - Bolsa Mexicana de Valores. Especificamente, esses mercados serão representados pelas ações de empresas que participaram da composição das carteiras teóricas dos Índices IBOVESPA e IpyC (Índice de Precios y Cotizaciones) durante todo o período compreendido entre Janeiro de 2001 e Janeiro de 2006. Foram analisadas as reações dos retornos das ações nesses mercados nos dias próximos às datas das divulgações de resultados trimestrais pelas empresas em busca de evidências de ineficiências. Os resultados encontrados mostraram indícios de eficiência informacional quando as empresas foram consideradas individualmente e indícios de ineficiência informacional quando considerada carteira toda. / This study aims to test the informational efficiency of the Brazilian and Mexican stock markets, through the development of an event study. For this purpose, BOVESPA, the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange will represent the Brazilian stock market while the Mexican Stock Exchange (BMV) will represent the Mexican stock market. Specifically, these markets will be represented by the company stocks that participated of the composition of their stock market indexes, IBOVESPA (BOVESPA Index) and IPyC (Mexican Stock Exchange Index), during the period of January 2001 through January 2006. Stock prices were analyzed for the days around the quarterly results release dates, searching for inefficiency evidence in these markets. The results show signs of information-efficiency when considering each company and information inefficiency when considering the market portfolio.

Scale invariance, collective behaviours and structural reorganization are crucial for portfolio management (portfolio composition, hedging, alternative definition of risk, etc.). This lack of any characteristic scale and such elaborated behaviours find their origin in the theory of complex systems. There are several mechanisms which generate scale invariance but maximum entropy models are able to explain both scale invariance and collective behaviours.<p>The study of the structure and collective modes of financial markets attracts more and more attention. It has been shown that some agent based models are able to reproduce some stylized facts. Despite their partial success, there is still the problem of rules design. In this work, we used a statistical inverse approach to model the structure and co-movements in financial markets. Inverse models restrict the number of assumptions. We found that a pairwise maximum entropy model is consistent with the data and is able to describe the complex structure of financial systems. We considered the existence of a critical state which is linked to how the market processes information, how it responds to exogenous inputs and how its structure changes. The considered data sets did not reveal a persistent critical state but rather oscillations between order and disorder.<p>In this framework, we also showed that the collective modes are mostly dominated by pairwise co-movements and that univariate models are not good candidates to model crashes. The analysis also suggests a genuine adaptive process since both the maximum variance of the log-likelihood and the accuracy of the predictive scheme vary through time. This approach may provide some clue to crash precursors and may provide highlights on how a shock spreads in a financial network and if it will lead to a crash. The natural continuation of the present work could be the study of such a mechanism. / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

The international banking environment has become potentially riskier because of the recent developments in financial services and products which have changed the way banks do their day to day business. Imposing minimum capital adequacy regulations is one way of fostering stability in the global banking system. A number of countries have started to implement the new capital adequacy rules (Basel II) following the worldwide consensus among central bankers that bank‟s capital levels should be regulated to enhance global financial stability. In this study, through the comparative analysis of the general implementation issues it was established that emerging countries apply all Basel II rules uniformly across all the banking institutions that operate in their territories. Developed countries apply these rules only to large and internationally active banks and because of the diversity of their banking industries, they also apply domestically modified rules to the domestically based banks. For the successful implementation of Basel II, properly planning, devoting bank resources and making necessary legislative amendments are prerequisites for incorporating Basel II into the regulatory framework for any country. The study concludes that the current global financial turmoil continues to pose a threat to the effectiveness of the Basel II rules which are aimed at achieving global financial stability.

This thesis analyzes the development of financial system of the People's Republic of China in the period from 1995 to 2015. The thesis is solved in the continuing process of Chinese economy liberalization. Main goal of the thesis is to analyze particular aspects of Chinese financial and monetary system and point out its potential risks as well. To achieve this goal the method of analysis has been chosen, especially system analysis and sector analysis. The thesis shows that one of main risks of the liberalization of Chinese financial sector is especially growing loans volume in its economy which is connected in growing rate of non-productive loans respectively. Next risk is the structure of investors in capital market. Based on findings it is able to say the highest risk of banking sector is connected with growing shadow banking as the alternative financing method. The thesis finds the completing of capital account liberalization and interest rate liberalization to be important too. Main benefit of the thesis except of Chinese financial sector analysis is comparison of different point of views about forecasting of future of the Chinese economy.

The main question this master thesis wants to answer is how much from their disposable income the Czech households save and how do they use their savings on the capital market. The thesis analyse situation and trend of the Czech households saving rate, changings of the marginal saving rate and checks in which financial instruments the Czech households alocate their savings. The thesis also focus on comparison of the Czech households data with the foreign households especially with the German, the Belgium and the Britain households as well as with Visegrád group households. Middle part of the thesis contains a forecast of future progress, which is compared with the similar forecast from year 2006, as well as the relationship of the government and the household's savings rate and possibilities and impacts of its regulation.The thesis is finished with the conclusion which summarize the most important results.

O presente trabalho tem por objetivo analisar em que medida os instrumentos para a tutela coletiva de interesses transindividuais previstos no ordenamento jurídico brasileiro, em especial a ação coletiva, podem contribuir para o fortalecimento do mercado de capitais. Apresenta-se inicialmente a evolução histórica do mercado de capitais brasileiro. É apresentado o debate doutrinário a respeito das principais justificativas para a regulação e auto-regulação do mercado de capitais, seguido do panorama dos instrumentos atribuídos pelo legislador brasileiro à Comissão de Valores Mobiliários, às entidades autoreguladoras e aos investidores. O trabalho também trata da experiência norte-americana acerca das securities class actions, da atuação da Securities and Exchange Commission, e da possibilidade de aplicação das soluções desenvolvidas naquele país ao mercado de capitais brasileiro. Apresentam-se a evolução legislativa sobre os instrumentos de tutela coletiva e a análise sobre a utilização destes instrumentos atualmente, suas virtudes e limitações, com o objetivo de identificar os elementos para a sua adequada aplicação. / The purpose of this study is to analyze how the collective litigation tools available in the Brazilian legal system, particularly the class actions, may contribute to the strengthening of the Brazilian capital market. This study first discusses the historical evolution of the Brazilian capital market and the doctrinaire debate about the main rehaznos for regulation and self-regulation of capital market, followed by a brief description of the tools provided by Brazilians lawmarkers to the Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission (Comissão de Valores Mobiliários), as well as to the self-regulatory entibies and investors. This study also explores the United States experience of securities class actions, the role of Securities and Exchange Commission and the possibility of application of the solutions designed in the United States of America to the Brazilian capital market. This study presents the legislative evolution of collective litigation tools and the analysis of their current uses, advantages and limitations in order to identify the elements for its suitable application.

Diplomová práce se zabývá aplikací vybraných metod umělé inteligence v prostředí kapitálových, potažmo akciových, trhů. Konkrétně se zaměřuje na využití umělých neuronových sítí pro predikci trendu a na možnost aplikace genetických algoritmů k řešení problému optimalizace investičního portfolia. Obsahuje návrh řešení uvedených problémů v praxi. Návrhy jsou koncipovány ve formě modelů zpracovaných ve vývojovém prostředí Matlab.