Impact of private pension funds on capital market Final work of University Postgraduate Studies consists of 73 pages, 18 figures, 10 tables, 81 sources of literature and 3 appendixes, in Lithuanian. Key words:pensions, social security, pension reform, private pension funds, capital market. The object of research is private pension funds. The aim of research is to estimate impact of private pension funds on capital market. The objektives are: 1) specify the concept of private pension funds, 2) perform theoretical analysis of private pension funds activity, 3) estimatepossible possible position of private pension funds in capital market, 4) frame the methodology of the estimation the impact of private pension funds on capital market, 5) traverse the capital market in Lithuania and investment of private pension funds, 6) estimate the factors of private pension funds that determinant the potential impact on capital market, 7)estimate the impact of private pension funds on capital market. methods of research: analysis and synthesis of scientific literature, logical analysis and synthesis, comparable analysis, graphic methods of modeling.

The object of research – Lithuanian private pensions funds The aim of research is to establish the use of Lithuania pensions funds to the Lithuanian retirement pension system and their influence to the capital market. Objectives: oTo make more accurate the pension fund concept; oTo analyse and evaluate different welfare state traditions and systems of retirement provision; oTo provide an analysis of advantages and disadvantages of private pensions funds; oTo evaluate Lithuanian private pensions funds activity; oTo consider the effect of pensions on Lithuanian capital market. Methods of the research: scientific literature methods of the research - logical analysis and synthesis; different countries experience comparative analysis; statistical calculation of dimensions (dynamics, stucture, comparison); the calculation of the average; data graphic representation; generalization of the final results and the formulation of conclusions. The period of research is 1999-2005 years.

Alternatyvioji vertybinių popierių rinka yra aktualus ekonominių – finansinių studijų objektas, ypač besivystančių finansų rinkų kontekste. Šio baigiamojo darbo tikslas yra atlikus teorinę AVPR analizę bei atsižvelgus į jau veikiančių jų patirtį, įvertinti AVPR Lietuvoje veiklos prielaidas, jas įtakojančių aplinkos veiksnių ir potencialių šioje rinkoje kotiruotis įmonių atžvilgiais. Pirmojoje darbo dalyje atskleidžiami AVPR teoriniai aspektai, antrojoje – atliekamas AVPR veiklos prielaidų vertinimas Lietuvoje bei pristatoma jų tyrimo metodologija. Paskutinė darbo dalis skirta metodologiškai pagrįstam Lietuvos įmonių struktūros projektui pateikti ir kitiems sėkmės veiksniams, t.y. kaip AVPR - First North Lietuvoje veiklos prielaidoms, įvertinti. Taip pat suformuluojamos išvados ir rekomendacijos. Apibendrinant rezultatus galima teigti, jog įmonių veiklos rūšys, siekiant optimaliai diversifikuotos AVPR pagal du nagrinėtus scenarijus yra: transportas, maisto ir gėrimų pramonė, informacijos ir ryšių technologijos bendrovės, kelionių organizavimas ir agentavimas. Pagrindinės AVPR šalyje sėkmingos veiklos prielaidos yra perspektyvių įmonių pritraukimas, diversifikuota AVPR įmonių struktūra, investuotojų pritraukimas, tinkamas reguliavimas, sertifikuotų patarėjų vaidmuo. / Alternative market is a relevant subject of economic and financial research., especially in the context of emerging financial markets. The objective of the final paper is to evaluate practice assumptions of alternative market, in respect of environmental influences and enterprises that may be potencial for quoting in the market. In the first part of the paper the theoretical aspects are revealed, and in the second the evaluation of practice assumptions, including good case practices, of alternative market as well as the methodology of research are provided. In the last part the project of Lithuanian enterprises‘ structure in First North is presented and good practices assumptions need to be evaluated. Summing up the results of the research the diversified enterprises‘ structure in respect of the number and variety of sectors according to two scenarios included industrial transportation, food and beverages, information technologies, travel agencies may be constructed. Then recommendations are provided.

Syfte: Syftet med denna studie är att undersöka om det finns ett samband mellan redovisad nedskrivning av goodwill och börsvärdet hos företag noterade vid London Stock Exchange mellan 2009 och 2012. Inledning: EU införde 2005 en ny standard för koncernredovisning. Syftet med den nya redovisningsstandarden, IFRS 3, är att öka relevansen, pålitligheten och jämförbarheten i den finansiella rapporteringen. Detta medförde bland annat att posten goodwill inte längre får skrivas av enligt plan, utan årligen ska testas för eventuell nedskrivning. Metod: För att fylla studiens syfte har vi använt oss av en kvantitativ undersökning, där relevant data har samlats in via marknadsdata och analysverktyget Bloomberg. Studien genomfördes på de största företagen registrerade på London Stock Exchange med undantag för de företag som inte hade den data som krävdes för att vara relevanta för studiens syfte. Svaren analyserades genom multipel regressionsanalys samt deskriptiv statistik framställda i statistikverktyget Minitab. Slutsats: Undersökningen visade att det finns ett statistiskt signifikant negativt samband mellan nedskrivning av goodwill och börsvärde. Detta tyder på att investerare anser att en nedskrivning av goodwill är ett tecken på att börsvärdet försämrats. Resultatet kan tolkas som att investerare litar på företagsledningens förmåga att värdera goodwillpostens storlek. / Purpose: The purpose of this study is to investigate if there is a correlation between reported goodwill impairment and market value for companies listed on the London Stock Exchange between the years 2009 and 2012. Introduction: A new accounting standard was introduced in the EU in 2005, which meant a new standard for mergers. The goal of the new accounting standard, IFRS 3, is to increase the relevance, reliability and comparability in financial reporting. This resulted in a change where goodwill no longer will be amortized, but tested annually for impairment. Method: To fulfil the purpose of this study, we used a quantitative method where secondary data was collected from the market data and analyst tool Bloomberg. The study was conducted on the largest companies listed on the London Stock Exchange, except for the firms that did not have the data relevant for the purpose of the study. The responses were analysed by multiple regression analysis and descriptive statistics analysis, both produced by the statistical software Minitab. Conclusion: The findings indicate a statistical significant correlation between the impairment of goodwill and decrease in share price. This suggests that investors believe that goodwill impairment is indicative of a decrease in expected present value of future returns, i.e. decrease in share price. The result can be interpreted as evidence that investors rely on the corporate management's ability to value the firm’s goodwill.

本研究旨在分析台灣上市公司外匯避險和資本結構策略的運用。本文利用資本市場法，作為外匯曝險衡量模型，並利用預期和非預期的匯率變動探討對企業價值的影響是否有顯著差異，本文以2007~2009年期間的月頻率資料，篩選摩根台灣指數基金(MSCI Taiwan Index Fund-March 09, 2010)成分股共108家台灣上市公司為樣本對象，並進一步利用所量化出的外匯曝險，應用至公司資本結構上，採平衡追蹤資料(balanced panel data)進行分析，探討外匯曝險與其他影響因子對公司資本結構的關係。 　　而研究結果發現，在外匯曝險衡量方面，在2007~2009年間，不論是預期或非預期外匯變動下，負值的外匯曝險係數家數明顯超越正值的外匯曝險係數家數，此研究結果也符合了台灣為一個出口導向的經濟體，當台幣相對貶值時，使得出口較具競爭力，企業的營收增加。此外，從顯著的企業樣本來看，金融證券業占大多數，顯示出匯率變動對金融證券業的影響尤其嚴重。 　　在資本結構上，本研究以營運風險、公司成立年數、抵押資產價值、自由現金流量、外匯風險、成長率、稅盾效果、獲利性和公司規模共九個因子作為影響資本結構的變數，在Panel data固定效果模型中，除了成長性和公司規模兩變數在1%顯著水準之下呈現正相關，其餘變數為顯著負相關。且該模型對公司資本結構的解釋能力相當高，Panel data固定效果模型調整後的R2為78.96%。 　　最後，本研究將產業別列入考量變數之一，結果發現，電子業與非電子業在資本結構決定因素上有顯著差異，且顯示電子業公司的負債比率較低，符合現實情況下，電子業公司在有資金需求時，大多不選擇舉債而較常採取權益融資的方式。而電子業受到外匯曝險對資本結構的影響力並不顯著，表示外匯曝險對公司負債比率並不會因為產業別而有不同的影響力。 / This study examines the foreign exchange rate exposure and capital structure strategy for the Taiwan’s Corporations. The research sample is MSCI Taiwan Index Fund, and the sample period is 2007 to 2009. To see how foreign exchange rate exposure affects the value of corporations, this study uses Capital Market Approach to be the model. Moreover, this study uses balanced panel data to see how exchange rate exposure and other variables affect the strategy of capital structure. 　　According to the result, the numbers of negative significant samples are greater than the numbers of positive significant samples no matter when measured in expected exchange rate exposure or in unexpected exchange rate exposure. This result can exactly explain that Taiwan is an export-dominated economy. When Taiwan dollar depreciates, which means corporations in Taiwan could improve export competitiveness, thus increasing profits. Moreover, this study found that exchange rate exposure has a greater impact especially on the finance and security industry. 　　In the capital structure part, this study selects nine variables to see how they affect the capital structure, including business risk, age, collateral value of assets, free cash flows, foreign exchange risks , growth, non-debt tax shields, profitability and size. In panel data fixed effect model, growth and size are found to be positive significant in 99% confidence level; other variables are found to be negative significant. Furthermore, the coefficient of determination, R2 of this panel data fix effect regression model is 78.96%, which means the regression line has a high explanatory power to explain the capital structure.

我以台灣資本市場在1991至2010年之上市公司作為樣本，研究資 本市場發展程度對於企業現金股利之資訊內涵的影響。我們首先觀察支 付公司數占整體上市公司數比重以及加權平均股利發放率，發現台灣資 本市場並不存在消失股利的現象。接著透過羅吉斯模型、Life Regression Tobit Model以及多變量迴歸分析，分別對台灣上市公司發放股利傾向、 股利發放率，以及現金股利宣告效果進行分析。我發現儘管我國不存在 股利消失現象，資本市場發展程度的確負向影響公司發放股利傾向、股 利支付率，以及宣告增發股利時的宣告效果，代表現金股利的資訊意涵 卻隨資本市場發展而弱化。另外機構投資人持股比率上升，顯著降低了 現金股利的宣告效果。唯本土機構投資人持股比例越高，公司發放股利 的傾向隨之增加，呼應了我國資本市場對於股利仍有一定的重視程度及 偏好。 / The main contribution of this article is that I use the variable of development of capital market as the main reason resulting in the decrease of the likelihood of companies to pay cash dividends and cash dividends payout ratio, and it also weakens the announce effect of cash dividends. There are some results we can see in this investigation. First, through observing the trend of the percentage of cash-dividend –payer firms to all TWSE firms and the trend of market value weighted payout ratio, we can see there is no “disappearing dividends” phenomenon in Taiwan capital market from 1991 to 2010. Second, the development of capital market not only decreases the likelihood of companies to pay cash dividends and cash dividends payout ratio, but also weakens the announce effect of cash dividends. Third, the more shares held by institutional investors, the weaker announce effect caused by cash dividends announcement. However, firms with higher percentage of shares held by local institutional investors are much likely to pay dividends. It somehow means that cash dividends are preferred and respected.

This thesis studies how firms’ investment and credit are affected by different financial imperfections related to firm and bank learning, relationship lending and financial wealth. After reviewing in chapter 2 the related literature, in chapter 3 I investigate the main determinants of different types of financial constraints, such as credit rationing and excessive cost of debt, by constructing new measures of these problems based on qualitative data. I then develop in chapter 4 a model of firm investment with financial constraints and Bayesian learning that provides a new framework to analyze the problem of asymmetric learning between a bank and a firm and its effect on a firm’s investment decision. This model is used to investigate, theoretically and empirically, the relationship between firms’ investment and internal funds in the presence of limited information, learning and bankruptcy costs, providing new arguments to support a ushaped curve theory of investment and internal funds. Finally, in chapter 5 this model is used to analyze how relationship lending affects the evolution of interest rates during the life cycle of firms. / Esta tesis estudia cómo la inversión y el crédito están afectados por diferentes imperfecciones financieras relacionadas con el aprendizaje, las relaciones de crédito y la riqueza financiera. Luego de revisar la literatura relacionada, en el Capítulo 3 se investiga los principales determinantes de distintas restricciones financieras relacionadas con el acceso y las condiciones del crédito, mediante la construcción de nuevos indicadores de estos problemas. Luego, en el Capítulo 4 se desarrolla un modelo de inversión con restricciones financieras y aprendizaje Bayesiano que provee un nuevo marco para analizar el problema del aprendizaje asimétrico entre un banco y una firma y su efecto en las decisiones de inversión de esta última. Dicho modelo es utilizado para investigar de forma teórica y empírica la relación entre la inversión y los recursos propios en la presencia de información asimétrica, aprendizaje y costes de quiebra, obteniendo nuevos argumentos para apoyar la teoría de una relación en forma de U entre la inversión y los recursos propios. Finalmente, en el Capítulo 5 se estudia como una relación de crédito afecta la evolución de los tipos de interés durante el ciclo de vida de las firmas.

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) is an important source of funds for firms and provides opportunities for investors. However, the economic boom of 1990-1996, the Asian Economic Crisis and the recession of 1997-2002 have affected the performance of firms listed at SET. The dividend policies of listed firms have also been influenced by these fluctuations in the business cycle.This study investigates the phenomenon of disappearing dividends in the developing capital market of Thailand. It adopts a similar methodology to Fama and French (2001) by classifying listed firms in line with changes in their dividend polices over the period 1990 to 2002. More specifically, the study explores the characteristics of firms which pay dividends, non-payers, former payers and firms which have never paid dividends. These characteristics include profitability, investment opportunities and firm size. The analysis uses firm characteristics for predicting the dividend policies of listed firms. Changes in firm characteristics and the propensity to pay dividends are identified in this process.The analysis suggests that firms which pay dividends tend to be large and highly profitable, although they possess low investment opportunities. The study also suggests that the characteristics of firms which paid dividends changed slightly before the crisis of 1997 and changed markedly during the crisis. However, after the crisis (1998-2002) the characteristics of firms are similar to those observed before the crisis. This result is attributed to the fact that some firms have resumed paying dividends after briefly ceasing this payment during the crisis. More importantly, when firm characteristics are held constant, the propensity to pay dividends of listed firms declined slightly before the crisis and declined strongly after the crisis. Consequently, the majority of new firms and many mature firms do not pay dividends.The findings of this study are consistent with the results of Fama and French (2001), particularly with regard to the characteristics of firms and changes in the propensity to pay dividends. However, this study extends the knowledge on the phenomenon of disappearing dividends by focussing on a developing economy, Thailand. Finally, this study suggests that investors should consider the characteristics of firms, changes in these characteristics and the propensity to pay dividends when identifying opportunities for investment.

[pt] A análise do perfil do investidor (API) ou Suitability é uma política de autorregulamentação implementada pela ANBIMA que tem como objetivo adequar à alocação de recursos de forma que estejam compatíveis ao perfil dos investidores. O objetivo principal desta pesquisa é desenvolver um questionário capaz de classificar os investidores das instituições financeiras considerando diversas características pessoais, principalmente a tolerância ao risco, tornando possível alinhar os interesses dos gerentes comerciais e de seus clientes. O instrumento foi elaborado seguindo as diretrizes estabelecidas pelo Código ANBIMA de Regulação e Melhores Práticas e adicionando uma escala elaborada por Grable e Joo (2010) com questões fundamentais capazes de medir a tolerância ao risco financeiro. A falta de um modelo padrão faz com que os profissionais financeiros desenvolvam e usem métodos simplificados geralmente limitados à simples conversações com os clientes sobre o nível de bem estar diante de diferentes cenários (GRABLE e LYTTON, 2001). Sendo assim, a contribuição deste trabalho foi à análise de possíveis falhas no processo atual e a busca por evidências de que a política de API poderia obter resultados mais significativos uma vez instituído um questionário padrão. / [en] The present study has the objective of development and validation of a standard questionnaire applied to the Brazilian financial market which has the main objective to identify and classify clients. This instrument is part of the Now Your Client Policy that was implemented by Brazilian Financial and Capital Markets Association (ANBIMA), and could help institutions to advisory better their clients. The present article has the objective to develop and to verify the validity of a research instrument for the classification of investors according to their personal preferences and risk tolerance. In addition performing a suitability test allows the financial institutions to assess the investment objectives of the client, the client s financial ability to bear any related investment risks consistent with his investment objectives. The instrument was elaborated following the ANBIMA s regulations in addition to Financial Risk-Tolerance Scale developed by Grable and Joo in 2001. The lack of a standard model leads financial professionals to develop and use simplified methods, usually limited to simple conversations with clients about their level of well being in a variety of scenarios (GRABLE; LYTTON, 2001). Another contribution from this study is to show evidences that without a standard questionnaire is impossible to obtain accurate results among the different financial institutions.

Despite the meaningful impact that credit ratings have on sovereign countries and financial markets, research has not fully explored the determinants of these ratings in many emerging markets (EMs). The aim of this study was to identify and quantify the extent to which different macroeconomic factors impact sovereign ratings. Based on a review of the literature, an analysis of rating agencies' methodology papers, and economic intuition, it was hypothesised that measures of wealth, economic growth, monetary stability, fiscal trajectory, external accounts and governance would predict EM credit ratings. This hypothesis was largely supported by regression models that anticipated actual ratings with predictive power comparable to extant research, but across a much broader set of EM countries. By identifying the key drivers of these ratings, the current research suggests several areas that policymakers can address to improve their own sovereign ratings. / Economics / M. Com (Economics)