This thesis investigates the difficulty in making accurate forecasts on opportunistic commercial real estate investments. The purpose is to quantify the differences between unlevered cash flows from underwriting estimates and actual outcomes, analyse them and arrive at conclusions about the difficulty in producing forecasts on opportunistic investments. The data used in this thesis comes from two opportunistic real estate portfolios previously owned by the private equity firm Niam. Both portfolios comprised Swedish office properties. The results from analysing Niam’s investments shows that operating cash flows on individual properties are most difficult to forecast since the strategy for the assets constantly needs to be updated in order to adjust for current events like for example change in demand of office properties. This can have great impact on the profit allocation between property cash flows and exit cash flows in comparison to underwriting. Furthermore the results show of an increased need of diversification for opportunistic investments, since individual investments have high volatility. Also, analysing investments on unlevered level has limitations. On an unlevered level an investment can have actual outcomes worse than in the underwriting, but when adding effects from financial leverage and currency movements the same asset can outperform the underwriting.

Market value of firms and book value of firms are rarely the same. The difference, which is attributed to unrecorded or unrecognized intangible assets, has increased significantly since the 1970s. The issue of appropriately valuing these intangible assets, however, still remains unresolved. The purpose of this study is to address this lack of understanding of valuing intangible assets in the hospitality industry. Five intangible asset investments: Research and Development, Training, Advertising, Labor, Pension, and one business model, Franchising, are chosen as the valuation constructs in this study based on previous research in the hospitality industry. The valuation models for the casual dining restaurant industry and the quick service restaurant industry are compared. The sample of this study includes 13 casual dining restaurant firms and 12 quick service restaurant firms. Compustat North America is the primary data source for this study. The annual data for casual dining restaurant firms from 1980 to 2011 is collected from this database. There are 238 firm-years in total. Two firm-years are excluded due to systematic missing values, and 15 firm-years are excluded due to missing share price information. Thus, the final count of data points for casual dining restaurant firms usable for analysis purposes is 221. The annual data for quick service restaurant firms from 1980 to 2011 is also collected from the Compustat North America database. There are 251 firm-years in total. Eight firm-years are excluded due to systematic missing values, and 47 firm-years are excluded due to missing share price information. Thus, the final count of data points for quick service restaurant firms usable for analysis purposes is 196. Pearson correlation and multivariate analyses are performed to answer the four research questions in this study. Two hypotheses are supported while one hypothesis is not supported and one hypothesis remains unanswered due to Multicollinearity issues identified in multiple regression models. The results of this study show that 1) R&D, training, advertising, labor and pension are all important valuation constructs in the hospitality industry, and 2) there are some differences, however, between casual dining restaurant firms and quick service restaurant firms. This study fills the gap in the current literature by providing a quantitative method to value intangible assets in the hospitality industry that uses the valuation constructs identified in previous hospitality research. The practical implications of this study will provide managers in the hospitality industry with helpful insights for strategic decision making, specifically in regards to research and development, advertising and employee compensation. / Ph. D.

The importance of environmental analysis in the strategic management process and the effects of economic value drivers on firm or industry performance have been discussed conceptually and empirically by researchers in corporate failure, and in the areas of finance, accounting, strategic management, and the hospitality industry in the past. The belief is that the more systematic and frequent the scanning performed by managers the higher the chances of improving the firm's or industry's performance. The present study is an attempt to identify economic value drivers that impact the casual theme sector of the restaurant industry and to ascertain the degree of the impact during the period 1994-2003. The statistical analysis was based on time series data, using Cross Correlation, Granger Causality, and Multivariate Regression. An exhaustive range of economic value drivers within ten categories were tested: commodity market; foreign currency market; labor market; inflation; stock market; national income and output; interest rate; government revenue, spending, debt, and taxes; money supply; and consumer spending. The unit of analysis was done at the industry level, and an index of operational cash flows of the casual theme sector of the restaurant industry was developed. Economic value drivers within the categories of commodity markets, labor markets, inflation, stock market, national input/output, government revenue/spending/debt/taxes, money markets, and consumer spending indicated co-movements with and causality to the index of operational cash flows per unit in the casual theme restaurant industry. A high variance in the operational cash flows in the casual theme restaurant industry was explained by a set of economic value drivers within commodity markets, inflation, and labor markets. In broad, practical terms, the study intends to support the importance of assessing the economic environment for better performance of the restaurant industry and to provide food service managers with a conceptual model to understand the unanticipated effects on the performance of existing or new strategies. In real terms, the model and set of economic value drivers in the model would help them decide what kinds of action or investment in a firm or industry's weakness should be taken to buffer future operational risks against value drivers within economic environment. / Master of Science

No description available.

The aim of the thesis is the determination of investment cash flows generated from Finnish market development activities of a selected Russia-based small company, performing investment valuation using discounted cash flow method and presenting improvements which can rise the attractiveness for potential investors. It includes comprehensive investment valuation of the selected company at the seed stage of its` development, including the overview of current financial situation, usage a valuation model followed by stable growth and terminal value determination. Provided and copulated data serves as an example of complete valuation model for capital injections of future projects in the company, thanks to which the author is able to come to particular conclusions on the funding perspectives for the company. The results obtained through the analysis is assessed through the critical prism to be used as a basis for further suggestions on improvement.

Life insurance policies are not equally profitable is sense of expected value. In practice, profitability is an output of complex cash flow models, which need utilizing special systems and the run time of such calculation can be significant if number of policies is high. Therefore we consider variables, which change most frequently, stimulate the profitability model with several values of these variables and then we search for a regression model to explain the changes. We apply Gamma regression on the data. But what if there exist some policies which are negative? Then we determine these policies with logistic regression applied on data censored to the binary form. Loss of these policies is modelled using symmetrical Gamma model. These three models, when considered together, can be viewed as a single model, which is a generalization of the well known zero inflated count model. The most interesting part of inference in such model is diagnostics. We show that the basic types of residuals - Pearson, deviance and quantile - can be defined. We also build an ordinary linear model and we compare utility of these two approaches. While building models, we meet various statistical issues like dimension reduction of yield curve or dispersion proportional to sum insured. 1

保險人發行投資型商品之收費主要來自於基金管理費用。本研究旨在提供一個架構，以作為此基金管理費用定價之依據。在此一架構下，保險人提撥準備金以因應附保證給付所帶來的風險；並可區分因保證給付所衍生之收費以及非因保證給付所衍生之收費。 簡單的說，我們的步驟如下：首先模擬未來的投資報酬率，藉以建構保險人發行投資型商品之現金流量分配。其次，在既定的內部報酬率(Internal Rate of Return)以及規範之準備金提存標準下，計算相對應之費率。 在本研究中，我們提供以滿期保證給付為例之相關數值結果。任何保證形態之投資型商品其基金管理費用皆可依此架構定價。 / This paper proposes a framework to charge for unit-linked contracts when considering guaranteed risk. The charge is determined by two criteria of meeting the target internal rate of return and simultaneously reserving standard. The framework is built on the stochastic cash-flow analysis. Thus, we first model the cash flow for unit-linked contracts by means of simulation, using a stochastic model for future dynamics of the rate of return. In the cash flow model, we consider the reserves for the guaranteed risk. The reserving standard for the guaranteed risk is based on quantile risk measure. In our framework, we work out the charges in reverse. For illustrative purposes, we investigate a unit-linked policy with maturity guarantees. However, our framework would apply to other types of contacts and guarantees. Some sensitivity analyses are also carried out in this research.

Este trabalho procura desenvolver um modelo de tributação da renda gerada pelas empresas com base em fluxos de caixa realizados, ao invés da base lucro em regime competência, mas na óptica dos conceitos contábeis. Além disso, procura analisar as implicações do modelo sobre os custos de conformidade, sobre a capacidade de pagamento, a interferência das normas tributárias sobre os princípios contábeis e a arrecadação. No desenvolvimento do modelo, procurou-se verificar quais são os fluxos de caixa tributáveis, os não-tributáveis, o tratamento a ser dado às movimentações virtuais de caixa e à inflação. Para isso, foram levantados e analisados as teorias e conceitos que suportam esse desenvolvimento. Com o modelo elaborado, foram analisadas suas implicações. Verificou-se que o modelo pode reduzir custos de conformidade tanto do lado do contribuinte, como do fisco, principalmente em função da maior facilidade de apuração; que o contribuinte pode aumentar sua capacidade contributiva, tanto do ponto de vista financeiro como econômico; que permite uma redução da interferência das normas tributárias sobre a elaboração das demonstrações contábeis; e, por último, que a arrecadação pode até ser equivalente à obtida com a tributação baseada no lucro, apesar de ser menos regular. / This thesis aims to develop a business income taxation based on realized cash flows model, instead of profit basis, but by the point of view of accounting concepts. Moreover, it attempts to analyze the implications of model upon compliance costs, contribution ability, interference of tax rules on accounting principles and upon collecting tax. On model development, was make an effort to verify which are the taxable cash flows, the non-taxable, virtual cash flows and inflation treatment. Toward, we review and analyze theories and concepts that support this development. Following the arranged model, was analyzed its implications. We verified that the model can reduces compliance costs, such taxpayer side as public revenue side, mainly because of major evaluation simplicity; that the taxpayer can have his contribution ability increased, financially and economically; that permits a reduction of interference of tax rules on accounting principles; and for last, that collecting tax can be up to equivalent as achieved with profit tax basis, even less regular.

Este trabalho procura desenvolver um modelo de tributação da renda gerada pelas empresas com base em fluxos de caixa realizados, ao invés da base lucro em regime competência, mas na óptica dos conceitos contábeis. Além disso, procura analisar as implicações do modelo sobre os custos de conformidade, sobre a capacidade de pagamento, a interferência das normas tributárias sobre os princípios contábeis e a arrecadação. No desenvolvimento do modelo, procurou-se verificar quais são os fluxos de caixa tributáveis, os não-tributáveis, o tratamento a ser dado às movimentações virtuais de caixa e à inflação. Para isso, foram levantados e analisados as teorias e conceitos que suportam esse desenvolvimento. Com o modelo elaborado, foram analisadas suas implicações. Verificou-se que o modelo pode reduzir custos de conformidade tanto do lado do contribuinte, como do fisco, principalmente em função da maior facilidade de apuração; que o contribuinte pode aumentar sua capacidade contributiva, tanto do ponto de vista financeiro como econômico; que permite uma redução da interferência das normas tributárias sobre a elaboração das demonstrações contábeis; e, por último, que a arrecadação pode até ser equivalente à obtida com a tributação baseada no lucro, apesar de ser menos regular. / This thesis aims to develop a business income taxation based on realized cash flows model, instead of profit basis, but by the point of view of accounting concepts. Moreover, it attempts to analyze the implications of model upon compliance costs, contribution ability, interference of tax rules on accounting principles and upon collecting tax. On model development, was make an effort to verify which are the taxable cash flows, the non-taxable, virtual cash flows and inflation treatment. Toward, we review and analyze theories and concepts that support this development. Following the arranged model, was analyzed its implications. We verified that the model can reduces compliance costs, such taxpayer side as public revenue side, mainly because of major evaluation simplicity; that the taxpayer can have his contribution ability increased, financially and economically; that permits a reduction of interference of tax rules on accounting principles; and for last, that collecting tax can be up to equivalent as achieved with profit tax basis, even less regular.

Nyckelord: Kassaflödesanalys, kassaflöde, likviditetsplanering, likviditetsbudget, likviditetsprognos, likviditet och nyckeltal. Frågeställning: Hur och varför använder de fyra valda organisationerna kassaflödesanalyser och -prognoser internt? Vilka är skillnaderna i de fyra organisationernas sätt att ställa upp och använda sig av kassaflödesanalyserna och -prognoserna och beror skillnaderna på i vilken bransch de verkar? Syfte: Syftet med uppsatsen är att undersöka hur kassaflödesanalyser och -prognoser tillämpas praktiskt i de fyra stora organisationerna ABB, Västerås stad, Manpower och Gina Tricot för att identifiera om skillnader i uppförandet finns. Metod: Studien är av kvalitativ karaktär då fallstudierna av organisationerna gjordes genom intervjuer med representanter på respektive organisation. Totalt genomfördes elva intervjuer med tolv personer. Data till referensramen samlades in genom sekundära källor. Insamlad data och information analyserades där referensram och empiri sattes i relation till varandra. Slutsats: Brister i metoden för hur kassaflödesanalysen ska upprättas finns då den i praktiken inte används av de undersökta organisationerna internt. Då den ändå måste upprättas på grund av lagstiftningen bör en förändring av uppställandet göras så att denna ska kunna användas mer internt. Då majoriteten av organisationerna i undersökningen gör prognoser istället för likviditetsbudget, vid likviditetsplanering, behöver forskningen inom referensramen för ämnet fokuseras på att förbättra prognosberäkningar. Studien visar på att användandet av likviditetsplanering, analys av kassaflöde, prognoser och nyckeltal kan bero på om organisationen är verksam inom privat eller offentlig sektor. / Keywords: Statement of cash flows, cash flow, cash forecast, cash flow projection, liquidity and ratio. Research question: How and why do the four organizations use the statement of cash flows and cash flow forecasts internally? Which differences are shown regarding the four organizations way of presenting and using the statement of cash flows and cash flow forecasts, and do these differences depend on the type of business? Purpose: The purpose of this study is to examine how the statement of cash flows and cash flow forecasts are used in the four large organizations ABB, Manpower, Gina Tricot and City of Västerås to identify if there are differences. Method: This quantitative study was based on twelve interviews with eleven different persons. The frame of reference was written with secondary data as material. Then collected information was processed, the frame of reference and the empirics were put together and then all was analyzed. Conclusion: There appears to be flaws in the method, in which the statement of cash flows is to be presented, because it is overall not used by organizations internally. Because the organizations are bound by law to do it a change in the method has to be made so it can be used more internally. The research of liquidity planning needs to be focused on improving the methods of calculating forecasts because the majority of the organizations in this study use forecasts to plan liquidity instead of liquidity budgets. The study shows that the use of plans of liquidity, analysis of cash flow, forecasts and ratios can depend on if the organization is private or public.